Cette thèse s’intéresse aux effets macroéconomiques des envois de fonds des migrants dans les paysen développement. La première partie de la thèse analyse l’effet causal des envois de fonds surplusieurs indicateurs de bien-Être, tandis que la deuxième partie examine l’effet des envois de fondssur la politique publique des pays receveurs. Plusieurs résultats émergent. Premièrement, les envois defonds des migrants réduisent significativement la part des individus travaillant pour moins de 2 dollarset cet effet apparaît renforcé dans un contexte de faible développement financier, forte instabilitémacroéconomique et forte prévisibilité des envois de fonds (Chapitre 1.). Deuxièmement, les envoisde fonds réduisent l’instabilité de la consommation privée et cet effet est d’autant plus important quele niveau de développement financier est faible et que le niveau des envois de fonds est faible. Parailleurs, les envois de fonds absorbent différents types de chocs (Chapitre 2.). Troisièmement, lesenvois de fonds atténuent significativement les effets des catastrophes naturelles sur l’output agrégé,cependant cet effet stabilisateur diminue avec le niveau d’envois de fonds reçus (Chapitre 3.). Ladeuxième partie de la thèse analyse l’impact des envois de fonds des migrants sur la politiquepublique. Premièrement, il apparaît que la contracyclicité des envois fonds contribue à réduire le rôled’assurance joué par la consommation publique dans les pays ouverts sur l’extérieur (Chapitre 4.).Deuxièmement, les envois de fonds réduisent significativement la part des dépenses publiques socialesdans les pays caractérisés par une mal gouvernance (Chapitre 5.). Troisièmement, les envois de fondscontribuent à accroître à la fois le volume et la stabilité du taux de recettes fiscales dans les pays ayantadopté une taxe sur la valeur ajoutée (Chapitre 6.). / This thesis focused on the consequences of remittance inflows in developing countries. The first partexplored the causal impacts of remittances on some indicators of aggregate welfare while the secondpart examined the effects of remittances on public policy. Several results emerged. First, remittanceinflows help reduce the proportion of individuals selling low wages and this effect is stronger in acontext of low level of financial development, high macroeconomic instability and less unpredictableremittances (Chapter 1). Second, remittances have a robust stabilizing impact on the privateconsumption. However, this effect tends to decrease with the levels of remittance inflows and financialdevelopment. Moreover, remittance-Dependent economies seem to be strongly sheltered against thedamaging effects of various types of shocks affecting consumption (Chapter 2). In Chapter 3, theresults highlighted that remittance inflows dampen the positive effect of natural disasters on the outputgrowth volatility. However, this impact was strongly reduced as the level of remittances increased.The second part of the thesis revealed interesting results regarding the effects of remittance inflows onpublic policy. First, remittance inflows reduce the insurance role played by the governmentconsumption in more open economies and this effect is more likely to hold when remittances exhibit acountercyclical behavior (Chapter 4). In Chapter 5, the results showed that the fiscal retrenchmentinduced by remittance inflows, is particularly marked for the public education and health spending incountries characterized by various types of governance problems. Finally, the thesis showed that theeffects of remittances do not only concern the expenditure side but also the revenue side. Remittancesare more likely to increase the fiscal space in receiving economies that rely on the value added taxsystem. In these countries, remittance inflows help increase both the level and the stability of thegovernment tax revenue ratio (Chapter 6).

La thèse, inscrite en octobre 2009, a été rattrapée par l’actualité, suite aux submersions liées à la tempête Xynthia de février 2010. En raison du changement climatique et de la pression foncière toujours plus forte sur le littoral, la vulnérabilité des activités humaines à la submersion marine ne fera que croître, en fonction de l’élévation du niveau marin. Les outils juridiques doivent donc se renouveler : non seulement ils doivent garantir que cesse l’urbanisation sur les zones vulnérables du littoral, mais ils doivent également accompagner la relocalisation de certains biens ou activités déjà menacés en associant acteurs publics et assureurs. L’anticipation nécessaire aujourd’hui doit permettre de réfléchir de façon participative aux notions de solidarité, d’équité, ainsi qu’à l’acceptabilité des solutions à mettre en œuvre à l’avenir. La thèse porte sur les moyens juridiques et assurantiels qui peuvent être mis en œuvre pour réduire la vulnérabilité des biens et des activités humaines face aux submersions marines, et sur la mise en œuvre de moyens de protection, de prévention, et/ou d’adaptation pour réduire les conséquences humaines et économiques de ce risque. L’observation des outils existants et de leurs limites conduit à rechercher et proposer de nouveaux mécanismes juridiques innovants. Parallèlement à la question du rôle des acteurs publics, étatiques ou locaux, se pose celle de l’assurabilité de ce risque émergent et de l’impact qu’il peut avoir sur les enjeux financiers des assureurs. De fait, le rôle que ces derniers peuvent jouer dans l’élaboration de stratégies de prévention ou de mitigation de ces risques peut s’avérer important / This thesis, registered in October 2009, has been effected by recent revents; the floods that were caused by the storm, Xynthia, in February, 2010. Due to the climate change and to the land pressure still stronger on the coast, the vulnerability of the human activities in the flooding will only increase, according to the rise of the marine level. The legal tools thus have to be renewed: they have not only to guarantee the stop of the urbanization on the vulnerable zones of the coast, but they also have to accompany the relocation of some properties or activities already threatened by associating public actors and insurers. Today, the necessary anticipation has to allow to think in a participative way about the notions of solidarity, equity, and also the acceptability of the solutions to be implemented in the future. This thesis concerns the implementation of legal and insurance means to reduce the vulnerability of the properties and human activities in front of the floodings, and of the means of protection, prevention, and/or adaptation to reduce the human and economic consequences of this risk. The observation of the existing tools and their limits, leads to look for and to propose new innovative legal mechanisms. At the same time, as the question of the role of the public, state or local actors, settles the insurability of this emergent risk and the impact he can have on the financial stakes of the insurers. Actually, the role which the insurers can play in the elaboration of strategies of prevention or mitigation of these risks can become important

Catastrophes like Katrina destroy a community's critical infrastructure-a situation that instigates several dilemmas. Immediately, the community experiences information disruption within the community, as well as between the community and the outside world. The inability to communicate because of physical or virtual barriers to information instigates instant isolation. Prolonged, this scarcity of information becomes an information poverty spell, placing hardship on a community accustomed to easily accessible and applicable information. Physical devastation causes the scarcity of what Abraham Maslow calls basic survival needs-physiological, security, and social-a needs regression from the need to self-actualize, to meet intellectual and aesthetic needs. Because needs regress, the type of information required to meet the needs, also changes-regresses to information regarding survival needs. Regressed information needs requires altered information behaviors-altered methods and means to meet the information needs of the post-disaster situation. Situational information behavior follows new mores-altered norms-norms constructed for the post-disaster situation. To justify the unconventional, situational social norms, residents must adjust their beliefs about appropriate behavior. Situational beliefs support situational social norms-and situational information behaviors prevail. Residents find they must trust strangers, create makeshift messaging systems, and in some cases, disregard the law to meet their post-disaster survival needs.

This dissertation examines the quality of hazard mitigation elements in a coastal, hazard prone state. I answer two questions. First, in a state with a strong mandate for hazard mitigation elements in comprehensive plans, does plan quality differ among county governments? Second, if such variation exists, what drives this variation? My research focuses primarily on Florida’s 35 coastal counties, which are all at risk for hurricane and flood hazards, and all fall under Florida’s mandate to have a comprehensive plan that includes a hazard mitigation element. Research methods included document review to rate the hazard mitigation elements of all 35 coastal county plans and subsequent analysis against demographic and hazard history factors. Following this, I conducted an electronic, nationwide survey of planning professionals and academics, informed by interviews of planning leaders in Florida counties. I found that hazard mitigation element quality varied widely among the 35 Florida coastal counties, but were close to a normal distribution. No plans were of exceptionally high quality. Overall, historical hazard effects did not correlate with hazard mitigation element quality, but some demographic variables that are associated with urban populations did. The variance in hazard mitigation element quality indicates that while state law may mandate, and even prescribe, hazard mitigation in local comprehensive plans, not all plans will result in equal, or even adequate, protection for people. Furthermore, the mixed correlations with demographic variables representing social and disaster vulnerability shows that, at least at the county level, vulnerability to hazards does not have a strong effect on hazard mitigation element quality. From a theory perspective, my research is significant because it compares assumptions about vulnerability based on hazard history and demographics to plan quality. The only vulnerability-related variables that appeared to correlate, and at that mildly so, with hazard mitigation element quality, were those typically representing more urban areas. In terms of the theory of Neo-Institutionalism and theories related to learning organizations, my research shows that planning departments appear to have set norms and rules of operating that preclude both significant public involvement and learning from prior hazard events.

The purpose of this study was to examine what, if any, symptoms of a traumatic stress reaction were still being experienced by police officers, as a result of the events of September 11, 2001, who were geographically distant from the events of that day. Participants included 60 police officers at two southern California law enforcement agencies.

Title: Humanitarian Supply Chain: Improvement of lead time effectiveness and cost-efficiency. A multiple case study on the preparedness stage of humanitarian organizations with their partners. Authors: Ester Lisnati Jayadi, Hugo Richit, Najmus Sadat. Background: 315 natural disasters events were reported, causing 11,804 deaths, affecting 68 million people, and costing US$131.7 billion in economic losses worldwide. This fact emerges the importance of humanitarian organizations (HOs) to act in reducing suffering and improving peoples’ life. However, the greater donations and support to HOs still do not solve this enormous issue at all which forces HOs to pursue greater accountability by improving their effectiveness and efficiency in terms of time and cost in disaster activities, especially in preparedness activities. No single actors like HOs have sufficient resources to solve the disaster problem alone; thus, they need partners to work hand in hand to relieve the suffering. Performance measurement through integration called performance management process is the key to enabling HOs and their partners to achieve the lead time effectiveness and cost-efficiency. Purpose: The purposes of the study are to explore which performance measurements are needed between humanitarian organizations with their partners and to explore how to integrate their relationship to improve lead time effectiveness and cost-efficiency. Then, the suggestions can be made by fulfilling the purposes. Method: A multiple case study by utilizing qualitative data through semi-structured interviews. Findings and Conclusions: RQ 1. What HSC (humanitarian supply chain) performance measurements are needed in the HSC’s preparedness stage in order to achieve the lead time effectiveness and cost efficiency? The performance required measurements in HSC’s preparedness stage to achieve lead-time effectiveness, and cost-efficiency are organizational procedures, learning and evaluation, HO’s mission, feedback, budgeting, fund management, sourcing, human and resource management, IT utilization, infrastructure utilization, human resources utilization, delivery time, knowledge management, information sharing, and employee management. RQ 2. How to integrate the HSC performance management process in the HSC’s preparedness stage to improve the lead time effectiveness and cost efficiency? By implementing a proposed performance management process, aligning vision and mission, trusting each other, utilizing IT technologies, improving the language, and applying standardization in HSC. Keywords: Humanitarian Supply Chain Management. Humanitarian Supply Chain. Preparedness Stage. Natural Disasters. Humanitarian Organizations. Partners. Dyads. Multiple Case Studies. Performance Measurements. Performance Management Process. Supply Chain Process Integration

Maps and models of seismic and tsunami risk are constructed from a variety of measurements taken in Indonesia, which have the potential to reduce loss of life and infrastructure. The first study uses the multichannel analysis of surface waves (MASW) method to calculate the time-averaged shear wave velocity to 30 m depth (Vs30). These measurements were taken at 58 sites in the city of Pacitan, Java and on the islands of Lombok, Ambon, and the Banda Islands. Vs30 calculations are compared with local geologic maps to extrapolate site class for locations not measured directly. Site class maps are then compared with Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) observations for three earthquake events that impacted Lombok and Ambon to identify regions where the MMI and Vs30 do and do not corroborate one another. Consistent with other Vs30 studies, the lowest values are observed on coastal alluvial plains and the highest values on steeper hillsides underlain by volcanic deposits. The second study focuses on a potential sector collapse of the volcano Banda Api within the Banda Islands. A field survey of its summit identified a steeply dipping normal fault striking NNE-SSW. This, along with the fissure geometry of the volcano's most recent eruption, reveals a failure plane along which a future sector collapse could occur. The numerical model Tsunami Squares (TS) predicts that the tsunami produced by this landslide would inundate an estimated 63% of buildings on the Banda Islands with waves as high as 82 m. These findings highlight the importance of installing a GPS receiver array on Banda Api to monitor the motion of its slopes. The third study analyzes sediment from trenches on the Banda Islands and Ambon to test if historical tsunamis that have impacted the area are preserved in the geological record. Potential tsunami deposits were identified by the presence of marine sand and larger clasts of marine carbonate in an environment which otherwise lacks large storms to bring such material onshore. Several dating methods constrain the ages of at least seven candidate tsunami deposits found in trenches onshore. One of these historical tsunamis (the event of November 26, 1852) is described in significant detail from several locations across the Banda Sea, which enables modeling of the event using a Bayesian statistical approach. The posterior of this model predicts the most likely epicenter was SW of Seram with a mean magnitude of Mw 8.8. It also makes other predictions about fault parameters. The region exhibits a marked slip deficit based on instrumental records of earthquakes in the area.

PHDGS / Institute for Gender and Youth Studies / This study examines the views, understandings, beliefs and practices on the effects of drought and how women cope in this regard. Feminist theories such as the Standpoint theory, Intersectionality, Ecofeminism and Social Construction were used to conceptualize the gender roles and practices that continue to hinder equity between men and women. This study was qualitative in design. The population of the study comprised of men and women living in Shashe village. A total number of people interviewed was 24, 6men and 6 women from focus group and 12 participants for individual participants. A purposive sample of participants was drawn from the population of farmers. The researchers targeted farmers, who are affected by erratic rainfall. The data was analysed using thematic analysis. The themes that emananted from the study were; environmental effects, economic effects, food scarcity, health effects, distribution of gender roles and coping strategies to drought. The findings showed that there were paradigm shifts in terms of gender relations with regard to drought in many villages, townships and cities today. Furthermore, cultural patterns embedded in patriarchal relationships are accommodating forms of relationships which are not favourable to women. The study recommends that farmers should also have other sources to generate income other than farming because of the changing weather patterns and also to educate women in all dimensions of agriculture so that they are well informed. / NRF

In my dissertation, I investigate the relationship between household consumption expenditures and transitory income shocks. In the first two essays, I pay particular attention to household expenditures in the aftermath of natural disasters, which are becoming more frequent and costly in the U.S. since 1980. Additionally, I study specialty farm producers' risk attitudes after an income shock due to natural disasters. Although the permanent income hypothesis predicts that households smooth consumption over their lifetimes, credit-constrained households may find consumption smoothing impractical. This dissertation brings forth evidence regarding heterogeneity in the effect of income shocks on household expenditures. First, I find that floods and hurricanes affect food-at-home (FAH) spending in different ways. The average 15-day decrease in FAH spending is about $2 in the 90 days after a flood and about $7 in the 30 days after a hurricane. In other words, floods have a prolonged effect and hurricanes have an immediate effect. I find that floods and hurricanes remain a threat to the FAH expenditures of vulnerable households, for instance, low-income households and households in coastal states. Second, Indiana specialty farm households reduce their monthly expenses of food and miscellaneous categories by about $119 and $280, respectively, after an income loss of 20%-32%. I also find that Indiana specialty producers are less willing to take financial risk after an income loss experience, i.e., they have a decreasing absolute risk aversion. Finally, in the third essay, I show that Australian households exhibit loss aversion in consumption expenditures which also means that they behave asymmetrically in their consumption response to income shocks. However, it is only working-age younger households that show asymmetric consumption behavior as opposed to the symmetric behavior of retirement-age households. The main message of these various findings is clear: after an income shock, the magnitude of change in consumption expenditures and the saliency of certain expenditure categories for adjustment are context- and population-dependent. Hence, income support policies and post-disaster relief programs may benefit from a better understanding of the consumption behavior of beneficiary population, to achieve maximum impact through better targeting.

La quebrada El Pedregal viene siendo afectada por la generación de flujo de escombros o huaicos que ocasionan pérdida de vida, daños a la infraestructura, a la salud y medioambientales. En 1987 un huaico provocó aproximadamente 100 fallecidos y 1000 viviendas fueron destruidas (Abad, 2009). Los huaicos son originados por las fuertes y/o constantes precipitaciones, el Fenómeno del Niño y condiciones naturales desfavorables de pendiente, geología, drenaje y forma de la subcuenca. Adicionalmente, el establecimiento de población en zonas de riesgo, el déficit de las medidas de prevención y mitigación e inadecuada planificación ante la ocurrencia de huaicos reflejan la vulnerabilidad existente, lo que generan el problema principal que es el alto riesgo que hay en la quebrada El Pedregal por ocurrencia de huaicos. Ante esta problemática, el objetivo general de la presente tesis es formular un plan de gestión integral de riesgo de desastre conformado por medidas de corrección y prevención tanto estructurales como no estructurales, para contribuir a la reducción de daños ocasionados por los huaicos. Para lo cual, se estudió el marco teórico, se recolectó y/o procesó información hidrológica, topográfica, geológica, geomorfológica, geotécnica, climatológica, e información de la ocurrencia de huaicos extraordinarios para el estudio básico de la quebrada. Se analizó la eficacia de medidas estructurales existentes como diques de mampostearía, dique de concreto ciclópeo y barreras dinámicas; y medidas no estructurales como la delimitación de la faja marginal y el sistema de alerta temprana piloto, siendo estas acciones aisladas no conformantes de un plan. Puesto que, no es posible actuar sobre el peligro natural se actúa sobre la vulnerabilidad, revirtiendo o mitigando las causas que la genera y de esta manera reducir el alto riesgo de la zona. En base a este diagnóstico se formuló y evaluó alternativas de medidas de corrección y prevención, para seleccionar y proponer las más adecuadas que conformen el plan. Es así como se realizó un análisis comparativo de cuatro medidas estructurales como la barrera dinámica, el dique de mampostería, el dique de concreto ciclópeo y la presa SABO, como alternativas de solución para revertir el déficit de las medidas de prevención y mitigación. Se seleccionó la barrera dinámica como la estructura más eficiente debido a sus características de funcionamiento, construcción, su capacidad de retención y su menor costo por cada m³ de volumen de material de huaico retenido. Asimismo , se estimó el volumen de producción y retención para un futuro huaico y comprobado el predimensionamiento y la estabilidad de las barreras en el software DEBFLOW, se propone como medida estructural de prevención la implementación de dos nuevas barreras dinámicas Nº05 y Nº06. Además se propone como otra medida estructural de prevención la incorporación de sensores de alerta temprana en la barrera dinámica N°03 y N°06. Sobre las medidas de prevención no estructurales para revertir la inadecuada planificación ante la ocurrencia de huaicos se proponen las capacitaciones periódicas de resiliencia, de seguridad y salud, con la intención de preparar a la población para una respuesta más efectiva ante eventos de huaicos y el fortalecimiento de la institucionalidad local y cofinanciamiento para el plan. Respecto a la ocupación del territorio por parte de la población para establecer sus viviendas en zonas de riesgo, se propone como medida no estructural de corrección el desarrollo de charlas de sensibilización y concientización sobre la preservación y cuidado de la faja marginal. Estas medidas se establecieron en el plan de gestión integral que, a su vez, está estructurado por los subplanes de acciones de prevención, de emergencia, de recuperación y rehabilitación y de monitoreo. Esta propuesta engloba la gestión integral y la gestión de riesgo de desastres, que busca la integración, articulación y coordinación de las acciones, recursos y participantes con la finalidad de contribuir a la reducción del riesgo, esperando reducir las pérdidas de vidas (de 100 a 0 fallecidos), daños a la infraestructura (de 1000 a 0 viviendas dañadas) y entre otros daños sociales, económicos y ambientales. La validación para determinar la viabilidad y fiabilidad para la implementación del Plan de Gestión Integral se desarrolló a través del método de juicio de expertos. Asimismo, se realizó una evaluación económica para verificar la viabilidad y factibilidad de la inversión del Plan de Gestión Integral. Y finalmente se realiza la validación del contenido del plan mediante el uso de herramientas modernas de ingeniería que incluyen, entre otras, las experiencias de entidades especialistas que cuentan con leyes, reglamentos, guías técnicas y planes estratégicos a nivel macro. / El Pedregal Creek has been affected by the generation of debris flow that causes loss of life, damage to infrastructure, health and environment. In 1987, one of the most catastrophic landslide in the area appeared, with approximately 100 deaths and 1000 destroyed homes (Abad, 2009). Debris flow are caused by heavy and/or constant rainfall, the El Niño phenomenon and unfavorable natural conditions of slope, geology, drainage and shape of the sub-basin. In addition, the establishment of settlements in risk areas, the deficit of adequate prevention and mitigation measures and uncoordinated and uncertain planning for the occurrence of debris flow, reflect the existing vulnerability, which generates the main problem that is the high risk that exist in El Pedregal Creek. Faced with this problem, the general objective of this thesis is to formulate an integral management plan for disaster risk, made up of structural and non-structural correction and prevention measures, in order to contribute to the reduction of damages caused by debris flow. For this reason, the theoretical framework was studied, hydrological, topographical, geological, geomorphological, geotechnical and climatological information was collected and/or process, as well as a historical series of the occurrence of extraordinary floods the basic study of the stream. The effectiveness of existing structural measures such as masonry dikes, cyclopean concrete dikes and dynamic barriers was analyzed; and non-structural measures such as the delimitation of the marginal strip and the pilot early warning system, being these isolated actions not part of a plan. Since it is not possible to act on the natural danger, vulnerability will be carried out, reversing or mitigating the causes that generate it and in this way efforts will be made to reduce the high risk of the area. On the basis of this diagnosis, alternatives to correction and prevention measures were formulated and evaluated, to select and propose the most appropriate ones to make up the plan. This is how a comparative analysis of four structural measures was carried out, the dynamic barrier, the masonry dyke, the cyclopean concrete dyke and Sabo dam, as solution alternatives to revert the deficit of prevention and mitigation measures. The dynamic barrier was selected as the most efficient structure due to its performance characteristics, construction, its retention capacity and its lower cost per m³ of volume of retained leached material. Likewise, the production and retention volume was estimated for a future shaft and the pre-dimensioning and stability of the barriers in the DEBFLOW software was verified. The implementation of two new dynamic barriers, No. 05 and No. 06, was proposed as a structural prevention measure. In addition, it is proposed as another structural prevention measure the incorporation of early warning sensors in the dynamic barrier N°03 and N°06. Regarding the non-structural prevention measures to reverse the inadequate planning for the occurrence of debris flow, periodic training on resilience, safety and health is proposed, with the intention of preparing the population for a more effective response to debris flow events and the strengthening of local institutions and co-financing for the plan. Regarding the occupation of the territory by the population to establish their homes in risk areas, it is proposed as a non-structural measure of correction the development of talks of sensitization and awareness about the preservation and care of the marginal strip. These measures were established in the integral management plan which, in turn, is structured by the sub-plans of prevention, emergency, recovery and rehabilitation actions and monitoring. This proposal encompasses integrated management and disaster risk management, which seeks the integration, articulation and coordination of actions, resources and participants in order to contribute to risk reduction, hoping to reduce loss of life (from 100 to 0 deaths), damage to infrastructure (from 1000 to 0 damaged homes) and among other social, economic and environmental damage. The validation to determine the viability and reliability for the implementation of the Integral Management Plan was developed through the expert judgment method. Likewise, an economic evaluation was carried out to verify the viability and feasibility of the investment of the Integral Management Plan. And finally, the validation of the content of the plan is carried out through the use of modern engineering tools that include, among others, the experiences of specialized entities that have laws, regulations, technical guides and strategic plans at the macro level. / Tesis