Cette thèse traite de processus de détérioration en théorie du risque et en biomathématique.<p><p>En théorie du risque, le processus de détérioration étudié est celui des sinistres supportés par une compagnie d'assurance.<p><p>Le premier chapitre examine la distribution de Markov-Polya comme loi possible pour modéliser le nombre de sinistres et établit certains liens avec la famille de lois de Katz/Panjer. Nous construisons la loi de Markov-Polya sur base d'un modèle de survenance des sinistres et nous montrons qu'elle satisfait une récurrence élégante. Celle-ci permet notamment de déduire un algorithme efficace pour la loi composée correspondante. Nous déduisons la famille de Katz/Panjer comme famille limite de la loi de Markov-Polya.<p><p>Le second chapitre traite de la famille dite "Lagrangian Katz" qui étend celle de Katz/Panjer. Nous motivons par un problème de premier passage son utilisation comme loi du nombre de sinistres. Nous caractérisons toutes les lois qui en font partie et nous déduisons un algorithme efficace pour la loi composée. Nous examinons également son indice de dispersion ainsi que son comportement asymptotique. <p><p>Dans le troisième chapitre, nous étudions la probabilité de ruine sur horizon fini dans un modèle discret avec taux d'intérêt positifs. Nous déterminons un algorithme ainsi que différentes bornes pour cette probabilité. Une borne particulière nous permet de construire deux mesures de risque. Nous examinons également la possibilité de faire appel à de la réassurance proportionelle avec des niveaux de rétention égaux ou différents sur les périodes successives.<p><p>Dans le cadre de processus épidémiques, la détérioration étudiée consiste en la propagation d'une maladie de type SIE (susceptible - infecté - éliminé). La manière dont un infecté contamine les susceptibles est décrite par des distributions de survie particulières. Nous en déduisons la distribution du nombre total de personnes infectées à la fin de l'épidémie. Nous examinons en détails les épidémies dites de type Markov-Polya et hypergéométrique. Nous approximons ensuite cette loi par un processus de branchement. Nous étudions également un processus de détérioration similaire en théorie de la fiabilité où le processus de détérioration consiste en la propagation de pannes en cascade dans un système de composantes interconnectées. <p><p><p> / Doctorat en Sciences / info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

Text in English with summary and keywords in English and Afrikaans / The International Organization for Standardization - ISO 14001 environmental standard addresses facets of environmental performance. The implementation of ISO 14001:2015 is aligned with various risks and opportunities, the identification and addressing of which is key in the successful implementation of the ISO 14001:2015 certification. The Durban region is a pollution ‘hotspot’ within KwaZulu-Natal. Assessment of the opportunities and risks of ISO 14001:2015 implementation within the region is key as it can potentially assist with proactive mitigation of risks and the effective utilization of opportunities. The aim of the study is to understand SHERQ (Safety, Health, Environmental, Risk and Quality) managerial perspectives of opportunities and risks of ISO 14001:2015 implementation in Durban, KwaZulu-Natal. The following objectives were outlined: To identify ISO 14001 implementation opportunities and risks internationally and nationally by means of an extensive review of international as well as national literature sources, to generate an evaluation framework to assess SHERQ managerial perspectives of risks and opportunities of ISO 14001:2015 implementation within Durban and to analyse SHERQ managerial responses to the ISO 14001:2015 implementation risks and opportunities within the Durban region. The methods included identifying primary opportunities and risks in ISO 14001:2015 from the literature review through an evaluation framework, thereafter, presenting these in questionnaires distributed among SHERQ managers in Durban via email and LinkedIn. Of 62 questionnaires distributed, 42 participants responded. The respondent’s perspectives were assessed through SPSS identifying key risks and opportunities. Objective 1 was achieved through the literature review in which ISO 14001 implementation risks and opportunities were identified. Objective 2 was achieved by generating the evaluation framework which assimilated implementation risks and opportunities. Objective 3 was achieved through the analysis of the responses of respondents to ISO 14001:2015 implementation risks and opportunities. Study results showed that, in line with international reports, 57.2% of all respondents agreed that the maintenance costs of compliance to the standard are high and 76.2% of respondents shared the perspective that company resources are better managed. Respondents were more agreeable to positive statements, indicating opportunities outweighing the risks. Furthermore, despite the risks, there are opportunities from an industry perspective such as increased investor inputs and increased top management involvement. A follow up study is recommended in the Durban region addressing ISO 14001 implementation risks, opportunities, and their investment impacts in order to further hone in on the organizational implications of certification. From an academic standpoint, multiple studies have posited that ISO 14001:2015 implementation resulted in improved financial outcomes but are associated with high implementation costs and it is recommended that a critical cost versus profits analysis into ISO 14001:2015 implementation be undertaken in the Durban region. / Die Internasionale Organisasie vir Standaardisering se ISO 14001-omgewingstandaard spreek fasette van omgewingsprestasie aan. Die implementering van ISO 14001:2015 is gerig op verskeie risiko’s en geleenthede, en die identifisering en aanspreek hiervan staan sentraal tot die suksesvolle implementering van die ISO 14001:2015 - sertifisering. Die Durban-streek is ʼn besoedlingsbrandpunt in KwaZulu-Natal. Evaluering van die geleenthede en risiko’s van die implementering van ISO 14001:2015 binne die streek is van kardinale belang, aangesien dit moontlik kan help met die proaktiewe vermindering van risiko’s en die effektiewe benutting van geleenthede. Die doel van die studie is om SHERQ-bestuursperspektiewe van geleenthede en risiko’s van ISO 14001:2015-implementering in Durban, KwaZulu-Natal, te begryp. Die volgende doelwitte is uiteengesit: Om ISO 14001-implementeringsgeleenthede en risiko’s internasionaal en nasionaal te identifiseer deur middel van ʼn uitgebreide oorsig van internasionale sowel as identifiseer deur middel van ʼn uitgebreide oorsig van internasionale sowel as nasionale literatuurbronne; om ʼn evalueringsraamwerk te genereer om SHERQ-bestuursperspektiewe van geleenthede en risiko’s van die implementering van ISO 14001:2015 te evalueer, en om SHERQ-bestuursreaksies op die ISO 14001:2015-implementeringsrisiko’s en -geleenthede te ontleed. Die metodes het ingesluit die identifisering van primêre geleenthede en risiko’s in ISO 14001:2015 vanuit die literatuurbeoordeling deur middel van ʼn evalueringsraamwerk, waarna dit in vraelyste wat via e-pos en LinkedIn onder SHERQ-bestuurders in Durban versprei is, uiteengesit is. Van die 62 vraelyste wat versprei is, het 42 deelnemers geantwoord. Die perspektiewe van die respondente is beoordeel deur middel van SPSS se identifisering van die belangrikste risiko’s en geleenthede. Doelwit 1 is bereik deur middel van die literatuuroorsig waarin ISO 14001-implementeringsrisiko’s en -geleenthede geïdentifiseer is. Doelwit 2 is bereik deur die evalueringsraamwerk te genereer wat implementeringsrisiko’s en -geleenthede geassimileer het. Doelwit 3 is bereik deur die antwoorde van respondente op ISO 14001:2015 implementeringsrisiko’s en -geleenthede te ontleed. Studieresultate het getoon dat, in ooreenstemming met internasionale verslae, 57,2% van alle respondente dit eens was dat die onderhoudskoste van die nakoming van die standaard hoog is en dat 76,2% van die respondente die perspektief gedeel het dat bronne van die maatskappy beter bestuur word. Respondente het meer met positiewe stellings saamgestem, wat daarop dui dat geleenthede swaarder weeg as die risiko’s. Ten spyte van die risiko’s, is daar ook vanuit ʼn bedryfsperspektief geleenthede, soos verhoogde beleggersinsette en verbeterde hulpbronbestuur. ʼn Opvolgstudie word aanbeveel om ISO 14001-implementeringsrisiko’s en geleenthede en die beleggingsimpak daarvan aan te spreek. Vanuit ʼn akademiese oogpunt het veelvuldige studies aangevoer dat die implementering van ISO 14001:2015 verbeterde finansiële uitkomste tot gevolg het, maar dat dit met hoë implementeringskoste gepaard gaan, en dit word aanbeveel dat ʼn kritieke koste-versus-wins-analise in die implementering van ISO 14001:2015 in die Durban-streek onderneem word. / Environmental Sciences / M. Sc. (Environmental Management)

Le but de cette recherche est d’évaluer l’importance du paysage culturel dans la résilience des communautés urbaines post-catastrophes. Ce travail se concentre sur le quartier du Lower Ninth Ward dans la ville de La Nouvelle-Orléans (États-Unis) après le passage de l’ouragan Katrina en 2005. Les catastrophes naturelles prennent une envergure et causent des dommages considérables lorsqu’elles touchent des villes. La reconstruction post -désastre est donc très dispendieuse pour les villes et les gouvernements, d’autant que certaines régions sont dévastées au point qu’elles doivent être reconstruites au complet. Cependant, le coût le plus lourd à assumer reste celui en vies humaines et si rebâtir les éléments concrets d’une ville est une tâche difficile à entreprendre, reconstruire une communauté est considérablement plus complexe. Dans le but de comprendre une telle démarche, cette recherche se concentre sur les éléments intangibles, comme l’attachement au lieu et les réseaux sociaux, dont une communauté a besoin pour se reconstituer de façon durable et résiliente. Le concept de résilience est très contesté dans la littérature et plusieurs chercheurs se sont essayés à le mesurer. Cette recherche adopte une perspective critique sur le concept et le revisite d’un point de vue holistique pour mettre en lumière sa complexité. Cette démarche permet de remettre en question l’importance de mesurer un concept finalement en perpétuelle redéfinition dans le temps et selon les échelles géographiques. De plus, en établissant une relation entre résilience et paysage culturel, il a été possible de mieux comprendre la complexité de la résilience. Touchant à plusieurs disciplines (architecture de paysage, urbanisme et sociologie), cette recherche utilise une méthodologie qui reflète son aspect multidisciplinaire : les méthodes mixtes. Ces dernières permettent la collecte de données quantitatives et qualitatives qui produisent une vue globale de la situation post-Katrina à travers le regroupement de recensions statistiques, d’observations de terrain et d’articles de journaux. Parallèlement, des entretiens ont été réalisés avec des résidents du quartier ainsi qu’avec des professionnels pour mieux comprendre les différents points de vue. Cette méthodologie a permis de produire des résultats au niveau du cas d’étude autant qu’au niveau théorique. La recherche valide l’importance de prendre en compte le paysage culturel dans les situations post-catastrophes, (en particulier) dans la mesure où il s’agit d’un élément souvent négligé par les urbanistes et les acteurs locaux. En effet, les éléments constitutifs du paysage culturel tels que l’attachement au lieu et les réseaux sociaux, participent d’un sentiment d'appartenance (« home ») et d’une volonté, pour les résidents, de reconstruire leurs habitations, leur communauté ainsi que leur quartier. Toutefois, il faut reconnaître que ces éléments ne suffisent pas à retrouver ce qu’ils ont perdu. Ainsi, l’étude du paysage culturel permet non seulement de mieux comprendre la complexité de la résilience, mais démontre également que cette dernière est une construction sociale. / The purpose of this research is to determine the importance of using the cultural landscape in evaluating the resilience of an urban community after the occurrence of a natural disaster. The focus is on the neighborhood of the Lower Ninth Ward after Hurricane Katrina in 2005 in the city of New Orleans. Natural disasters are gaining significance and magnitude when they hit cities, which are becoming more and more populated over the years. The damage these disasters cause is colossal. It is very costly for cities to undergo major disasters and sometimes, large sections of cities need to be entirely rebuilt. The costliest price is the human life, and as history marks it, too many lives have perished due to disasters. While rebuilding is a challenging task, yet feasible, rebuilding a community is not as tangible as rebuilding the infrastructure. This research focuses on the many intangible aspects, like place attachment and social networks, a community needs to rebuild itself in a sound and resilient way. The concept of resilience is very contested in the literature and many have attempted to measure it. This research takes a step back and scrutinizes the concept of resilience from a holistic perspective, which highlights its complexity. This leads to questioning the importance of measuring the concept, especially that it changes with time and with the different scales of geography. In addition, a relationship between the cultural landscape and resilience is established, which allows for a better understanding of this complexity. Taking a little from multiple disciplines (Landscape Architecture, Urban Planning, and Sociology), this research resorts to a methodology that reflects its multidisciplinary aspect. The methodology is the mixed methods research design, which allows the collection of quantitative and qualitative data. The focus is to gather census data, newspaper articles, and observations to give a general perspective on the post-Katrina situation. Interviews are collected from residents and from professionals so as to tackle the research from different angles. This allows reaching results at the case study level as well as the theoretical level. This research validates the importance of using the cultural landscape in post-disaster situations as planners and government officials overlook it. Some of the elements that constitute it like place attachment and social networks motivate people to return to their original neighbourhoods and rebuild their homes and community. These elements, however, cannot by themselves give people back what they lost in the disaster. By relating the cultural landscape to the concept of resilience, it implies that resilience is a social construction.

This thesis explores the entire cycle of education, from initial access to schooling, over degree completion, to returns to education. Despite recent gains in increasing access, an tens of millions of children worldwide are still out of school. Abolishing school fees has increased enrollment rates in several countries where enrollments were low and fees were high. However, such policies may be less effective, or even have negative consequences, when supply-side responses are weak. The first part of the thesis evaluates the impacts of a tuition waiver program in Haiti, which provided public financing to nonpublic schools conditional on not charging tuition. The chapter concludes that school's participation in the program results in more students enrolled, more staff, and slightly higher student-teacher ratios. The program also reduces grade repetition and the share of overage students. While the increase in students does not directly equate to a reduction in the number of children out of school, it does demonstrate strong demand from families for the program and a correspondingly strong supply response from the nonpublic sector.Pertaining degree completion, it is well established that natural disasters can have a negative effect on human capital accumulation. However, a comparison of the differential impacts of distinct disaster classes is missing. Using census data and information from DesInventar and EMDAT, two large disaster databases, the second part of the thesis assesses how geological disasters and climatic shocks affect the upper secondary degree attainment of adolescents. The chapter focuses on Mexico, given its diverse disaster landscape and lack of obligatory upper secondary education over the observed time period. While all disaster types are found to impede attainment, climatic disasters that are not infrastructure-destructive (e.g. droughts) have the strongest negative effect, decreasing educational expansion by over 40%. The effects seem largely driven by demand-side changes such as increases in school dropouts and fertility, especially for young women. The results may also be influenced by deteriorated parental labor market outcomes. Supply-side effects appear to be solely driven by infrastructure-destructive climatic shocks (e.g. floods). These findings thus call for differential public measures according to specific disaster types and an enhanced attention to climatic events given their potentially stronger impact on younger generations.It is also widely appreciated that natural disasters can have negative impacts on local labor market outcomes. However, the study of differential types of negative capital shocks, the underlying labor market mechanisms, and the context of the poorest countries have been neglected. Following testable predictions of economic theory, the third part of the thesis exploits the exogenous variation of destruction of human and physical capital caused by the 2010 Haiti earthquake to disentangle the differential impact on local individual monetary returns to education. Employing individual-level survey data from before and after the earthquake the chapter finds that the returns decreased on average by 37%, especially in equipment-capital intensive industry. Higher educated individuals adjust into low-paying self-employment or agriculture. The returns are particularly shock-sensitive for urban residents, migrants, males, and people over age 25. / Doctorat en Sciences économiques et de gestion / info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

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Each year people are injured and even die in crowd related accidents, often during planned events. Recent studies have emphasized the need for using a systems approach to study these events. In this study the systems approach of resilience theory is combined with the crowd psychology-models Extended Social Identity Model and the Aggravation and Mitigation Model to examine event safety at a music festival, a domain previously largely unexplored by these perspectives. By using an ethnographic approach as well as interviewing visitors the study set out to answer questions about when and how the safety organization adjusted itself under conditions relating to crowds. Another goal was to study the social identity of the visitors as well as the interaction between the safety organization and the visitors at the festival to explain the presence or absence of crowd conflict. Using thematic analysis several situations were identified where the safety organization adjusted itself, as well as the strategies that the organization used in these different circumstances. It was also concluded that the absence of crowd conflict could best be explained by three factors. First of all, no history of crowd conflict existed between the safety organization and the visitors, secondly, there were no groups present with the goal of creating conflict, and thirdly, the social processes taking place between the safety organization and the visitors were all mitigating in nature. The mitigating nature of the social processes was partly attributable to the strategies identified for adjusting to crowd conditions.

When governments are unable or unwilling to provide necessary relief to communities, local faith-based congregations (FBCs) step in and fill the gap. Though shown to provide for so many needs following disaster, FBCs have largely been left out of the institutional emergency management cycle. The aim of this study was to explore the role of FBCs in the disaster response and recovery process and investigate how recovery impacts FBCs. The primary objective of this study is to gain a better understanding of FBCs and how to better integrate them into the formal emergency management process.The main questions were as follows: First, what is the role of FBCs during the disaster recovery process? Second, how do FBCs change (temporarily and permanently) during disaster recovery, and what factors may promote or inhibit change? To answer these questions, qualitative semistructured interviews were held to develop a case study of Katy, Texas and its recovery from Hurricane Harvey of 2017. The applied and conceptual implications resulting from this study, which apply to FBCs, researchers, emergency managers, and policy makers, highlight the opportunity to better incorporate FBCs formally into emergency management practices.

The field of crisis management and humanitarian assistance has been one of the major fields of development for governmental and common best European practices in the last decades. The European Union as a major humanitarian stakeholder has taken great effort to strengthen the response in case of humanitarian disasters. This work addresses the feasibility and possible benefits of using machine learning in the prediction of the impact severity of a disaster as a model-driven data analysis in comparison to data-driven reference models for early response coordination and preparedness. In comparison to classical data analysis systems the feasibility of earthquake impact prediction based on machine learning models is evaluated and further debated.

This thesis investigates the impact of climate refugees on the real estate market in coastal Louisiana and methods to mitigate entry barriers in safer markets. Utilizing a mix-methods approach, including quantitative analysis of socio-economic indicators from 2005 to 2023 and qualitative interviews with key stakeholders, the research reveals significant disparities in property values and housing trends between coastal and inland regions. The findings suggest that frequent climate disasters may be a significant factor that has led to declining property values and increased financial instability in affected areas. These results underscore the need for targeted policy interventions to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change on vulnerable communities. / Denna avhandling undersöker klimatflyktingars inverkan på fastighetsmarknaden i kustnära Louisiana och metoder för att mildra inträdesbarriärer på säkrare marknader. Genom att använda en blandad metod, inklusive kvantitativ analys av socioekonomiska indikatorer från 2005 till 2023 och kvalitativa intervjuer med viktiga intressenter, visar forskningen betydande skillnader i fastighetsvärden och bostadstrender mellan kust- och inlandsregioner. Resultaten tyder på att täta klimatkatastrofer kan vara en betydande faktor som har lett till sjunkande fastighetsvärden och ökad finansiell instabilitet i drabbade områden. Dessa resultat understryker behovet av riktade politiska insatser för att mildra de negativa effekterna av klimatförändringar på utsatta samhällen.

Between 45-57% of South Africans are estimated to be engulfed by poverty. In an attempt to identify policy instruments that could help change this status quo, the various strategies that have been implemented in countries (e.g. China, Vietnam and Uganda) that are known to have been relatively successful in reducing poverty are reviewed. In the process, this dissertation discusses the literature regarding poverty, with a particular emphasis on the definition, measurement and determinants thereof. Furthermore, South Africa's anti-poverty strategies are discussed. It turns out that these have met limited success. This is largely due to insufficient pro-poor economic growth, weak implementation/administration at the municipal level, slow asset redistribution, high income/wealth inequality, low job generation rate by SMME's, high HIV/AIDS infection rate, public corruption and inadequate monitoring of poverty. Therefore, if meaningful progress towards poverty reduction is to be achieved, the government needs to deal with the foregoing constraints accordingly. / Economics / M.Comm. (Economics)