The first two articles build procedures to simulate vector of univariate states and estimate parameters in nonlinear and non Gaussian state space models. We propose state space speci fications that offer more flexibility in modeling dynamic relationship with latent variables. Our procedures are extension of the HESSIAN method of McCausland[2012]. Thus, they use approximation of the posterior density of the vector of states that allow to : simulate directly from the state vector posterior distribution, to simulate the states vector in one bloc and jointly with the vector of parameters, and to not allow data augmentation. These properties allow to build posterior simulators with very high relative numerical efficiency. Generic, they open a new path in nonlinear and non Gaussian state space analysis with limited contribution of the modeler. The third article is an essay in commodity market analysis. Private firms coexist with farmers' cooperatives in commodity markets in subsaharan african countries. The private firms have the biggest market share while some theoretical models predict they disappearance once confronted to farmers cooperatives. Elsewhere, some empirical studies and observations link cooperative incidence in a region with interpersonal trust, and thus to farmers trust toward cooperatives. We propose a model that sustain these empirical facts. A model where the cooperative reputation is a leading factor determining the market equilibrium of a price competition between a cooperative and a private firm / Les deux premiers articles élaborent des procédures de simulation du vecteur d'état et d'estimation des paramètres dans des modèles espace-états non linéaires et non-Gaussiens. Nous proposons des spécifi cations des modèles espace-états qui offrent plus de flexibilité dans la modélisation des relations dynamiques avec variables latentes. Les procédures d'estimation des paramètres dans ces modèles sont une extension de la méthode HESSIAN de McCausland[2012]. Ainsi, elles utilisent une approximation de la densité à posteriori du vecteur d'état qui permet de : simuler directement de la loi à posteriori du vecteur d'état, de simuler en seul bloc le vecteur d'état et de le simuler conjointement avec le vecteur de paramètres, et de ne pas admettre l'introduction d'inconnues additionnelles. Ces propriétés permettent d'obtenir des simulateurs à posteriori avec une efficacité numérique relative très élevée. Les procédures d'estimation élaborées sont génériques. Elles ouvrent ainsi une voie pour une analyse des modèles espace-états non linéaires et non-Gaussiens sans une grande contribution du modélisateur. Le troisième article est une contribution dans l'analyse des marchés agricoles. Les firmes privées coexistent avec les coopératives de fermiers dans les marchés agricoles en Afrique subsaharienne. Les firmes privées accaparent les plus grandes parts de marché, alors que certains modèles théoriques prédisent leur disparition une fois confrontées aux coopératives agricoles. Par ailleurs, certaines observations et études empiriques lient la forte incidence d'une coopérative dans une région à la confiance interpersonnelle entre les personnes de cette région, et par conséquent la confiance de ces personnes envers les coopératives existantes. Nous proposons un modèle théorique qui cadre mieux avec ces observations empiriques. Un modèle où la réputation de la coopérative est un facteur déterminant de l'équilibre de marché dans la compétition sur le prix à la livraison entre celle-ci et une firme privée.

Lietuvoje išimtinai kūdikius iki 6 mėn. žindo tik 25, 7 proc. motinų, o 14 proc. jau nuo 1 gyvenimo mėnesio davė arbatos. Tyrimais yra nustatyta, kad žindymo ir laktacijos valdymo mokymas nėštumo metu, gali prailginti išimtinio žindymo trukmę.Tikslas – nustatyti nėščiųjų mokymo apie žindymo ir laktacijos valdymą įtaką išimtinio žindymo(IŽ) paplitimui, papildomo maitinimo(PM) įvedimo pradžiai bei įvertinti motinų žinias ir pastangas, siekiant spręsti su žindymu susijusias problemas.Uždaviniai: 1. Įvertinti nėščiųjų mokymo apie žindymą įtaką IŽ paplitimui ir trukmei; 2.Įvertinti nėščiųjų mokymo apie žindymą įtaką PM įvedimo pradžiai; 3.Įvertinti išklausiusių ir neišklausiusių mokymo apie žindymą motinų žinias ir pastangas siekiant spręsti su žindymu susijusias problemas; 4. Išsiaiškinti motinų nuostatas apie žindymo trukmę ir veiksnius, galinčius ją įtakoti; 5. Nustatyti motinų požiūrį į personalo pagalbą pradedant žindyti.Tyrimo metodas. Tyrimas buvo atliktas VU Sporto medicinos, reabilitacijos ir slaugos instituto ir RMC bazėje 2006-2008 metais. Naudojant anoniminę anketą-klausimyną buvo apklaustos 50 moterų, auginančios 6-18 mėn. amžiaus vaikus ir išklausiusios prenatalinį žindymo ir laktacijos valdymo pagrindų kursą (poveikio grupė(PG)), ir 50 moterų (kontrolinė grupė(KG)), auginančių tokio paties amžiaus vaikus ir neišklausiusios tokio kurso. Klausimyno pirmoje dalyje buvo siekiama išsiaiškinti moterų žindymo ir papildomo maisto įvedimo praktiką, nuostatas apie sėkmingo... [toliau žr. visą tekstą] / In Lithuania only 25.7% of babies are exclusively breastfed (BF) up to 6 months. Evidence has proved that prenatal teaching on BF and lactation management(LM) can prolong exclusive BF. Objective: to determine the influence of prenatal BF training over the rates of exclusive BF and the initiation of complementary feeding(CF) and to assess the mothers‘ knowledge and efforts in solving BF-related problems. Tasks: 1.Assess the influence of prenatal BF training over the rates and length of exclusive BF. 2. Assess the influence of prenatal BF training over the initiation of CF. 3. Assess the knowledge and efforts in solving BF-related problems by mothers who have undergone and who haven‘t undergone prenatal BF training. 4. Determine mothers‘ attitudes toward the length of BF and the factors influencing this length. 5. Determine mothers’ attitudes toward the personnel’s assistance at the initiation of BF. Methods: The investigation was carried out at the IRSMN at the MF of VU and the NNC in 2006 – 2008. The survey included 50 women raising children aged 6–18 months, having completed a prenatal BF and LM course (“intervention group” IG) and 50 - raising children of the same age but having not completed such course (“control group” CG). The first part of the anonymous questionnaire was aimed at determining the practices of BF and initiating CF, the successful BF factors, the assessment of assistance in BF and trust in nurses in solving BF-related problems; the second - a test aimed at... [to full text]

本文分成兩個部分探討失業者的工作搜尋決策，第一部分利用遞延選擇權模型模擬市場景氣、預期工作機會出現機率、不確定性等因素對失業者工作搜尋決策的影響。第二部份利用2006年至2010年主計處的「人力資源調查」及「人力運用調查」資料從事實證分析。本文從實證分析中驗證以下的模擬結果：一、市場上的工資波動率與失業者的保留工資有正向關係，與移轉到就業的機率有負向關係。二、失業者對工作機會出現機率的預期較高時，擁有較高的保留工資，移轉到就業的機率較低。另外，學習速度較快的失業者在搜尋工作的過程中會以較快的速度下降保留工資，移轉到就業的機率較高。三、失業者對於工作搜尋報酬的不確定程度較高時，擁有較低的保留工資，移轉到就業的機率較高。 / This thesis consists of two parts. The first part is devoted to applying a real option approach to simulate the impacts of market prospect, expected offer arrival rate, and uncertainty on job search decisions. The second part provides an empirical illustration to validate the simulation results by using unemployment data from the 2006-2010 Taiwan Manpower Utilization Survey. The main findings of this thesis can be summarized as follows: (i) The wage volatility is related positively with the reservation wage of the unemployed, but inversely with the transition probability into employment. (ii) If a rising offer arrival rate is expected, the unemployed increase reservation wages and thus decrease transition probabilities. Furthermore, higher learning speed acts to intensively lower the reservation wage. (iii) When the degree of payoff uncertainty is higher, the unemployed decrease reservation wages and thus increase transition probabilities.

In this doctoral dissertation three proposed approaches were evaluated using two databases of different languages, one American-English and one Greek. The proposed approaches were compared to the state-of-the-art models in the phone duration modelling task. The SVR model outperformed all the other individual models evaluated in this dissertation. Their ability to outperform all the other models is mainly based on their advantage of coping in a better way with high-dimensionality feature spaces in respect to the other models used in phone duration modelling, which makes them appropriate even for the case when the amount of the training data would be small respectively to the number of the feature set used. The proposed fusion scheme, taking advantage of the observation that different prediction algorithms perform better in different conditions, when implemented with SVR (SVR-fusion), contributed to the improvement of the phone duration prediction accuracy over that of the best individual model (SVR). Furthermore the SVR-fusion model managed to reduce the outliers in respect to the best individual model (SVR). Moreover, the proposed two-stage scheme using individual phone duration models as feature constructors in the first stage and feature vector extension (FVE) in the second stage, implemented with SVR (SVR-FVE), improved the prediction accuracy over the best individual predictor (SVR), and the SVR-fusion scheme and moreover managed to reduce the outliers in respect to the other two proposed schemes (SVR and SVR-fusion). The SVR two-stage scheme confirms in this way their advantage over all the other algorithms of coping well with high-dimensionality feature sets. The improved accuracy of phone duration modelling contributes to a better control of the prosody, and thus quality of synthetic speech. Furthermore, the first proposed method (SVR) was also evaluated on the phone duration modelling task in emotional speech, outperforming all the state-of-the-art models in all the emotional categories. Finally, perceptual tests were performed evaluating the impact of the proposed phone duration models to synthetic speech. The perceptual test for both the databases confirmed the results of objective tests showing the improvement achieved by the proposed models in the naturalness of synthesized speech. / Η παρούσα διδακτορική διατριβή πραγματεύεται προβλήματα που αφορούν στο χώρο της τεχνολογίας ομιλίας, με στόχο την μοντελοποίηση προσωδίας με χρήση τεχνικών μηχανικής μάθησης στα πλαίσια ουδέτερης και συναισθηματικής συνθετικής ομιλίας. Μελετήθηκαν τρεις καινοτόμες μέθοδοι μοντελοποίησης προσωδίας, οι οποίες αξιολογήθηκαν με αντικειμενικά τεστ και με υποκειμενικά τεστ ποιότητας ομιλίας για την συνεισφορά τους στην βελτίωση της ποιότητα της συνθετικής ομιλίας: Η πρώτη τεχνική μοντελοποίησης διάρκειας φωνημάτων, βασίζεται στην μοντελοποίηση με χρήση Μηχανών Υποστήριξης Διανυσμάτων (Support Vector Regression – SVR). Η μέθοδος αυτή δεν έχει χρησιμοποιηθεί έως σήμερα στην πρόβλεψη διάρκειας φωνημάτων. Η μέθοδος αυτή συγκρίθηκε και ξεπέρασε σε απόδοση όλες τις μεθόδους της επικρατούσας τεχνολογίας (state-of-the-art) στη μοντελοποίηση της διάρκειας φωνημάτων. Η δεύτερη τεχνική, βασίζεται στην μοντελοποίηση διάρκειας φωνημάτων με συνδυαστικό μοντέλο πολλαπλών προβλέψεων. Συγκεκριμένα, οι προβλέψεις διάρκειας φωνημάτων από ένα σύνολο ανεξάρτητων μοντέλων πρόβλεψης διάρκειας φωνημάτων χρησιμοποιούνται ως είσοδος σε ένα μοντέλο μηχανικής μάθησης, το οποίο συνδυάζει τις εξόδους από τα ανεξάρτητα μοντέλα πρόβλεψης και επιτυγχάνει μοντελοποίηση της διάρκειας φωνημάτων με μεγαλύτερη ακρίβεια, μειώνοντας επιπλέον και τα μεγάλα σφάλματα (outliers), δηλαδή τα σφάλματα που βρίσκονται μακριά από το μέσο όρο των σφαλμάτων. Η τρίτη τεχνική, είναι μια μέθοδος μοντελοποίησης διάρκειας φωνημάτων δύο σταδίων με κατασκευή νέων χαρακτηριστικών και επέκταση του διανύσματος χαρακτηριστικών. Συγκεκριμένα, στο πρώτο στάδιο, ένα σύνολο ανεξάρτητων μοντέλων πρόβλεψης διάρκειας φωνημάτων που χρησιμοποιούνται ως παραγωγοί νέων χαρακτηριστικών εμπλουτίζουν το διάνυσμα χαρακτηριστικών. Στο δεύτερο στάδιο, το εμπλουτισμένο διάνυσμα χρησιμοποιείται για να εκπαιδευτεί ένα μοντέλο πρόβλεψης διάρκειας φωνημάτων το οποίο επιτυγχάνει υψηλότερη απόδοση σε σχέση με όλες τις προηγούμενες μεθόδους, και μειώνει τα μεγάλα σφάλματα. Επιπλέον εφαρμόστηκε η πρώτη μέθοδος σε συναισθηματική ομιλία. Το προτεινόμενο SVR μοντέλο επιτυγχάνει την υψηλότερη απόδοση συγκρινόμενο με όλα τα state-of-the-art μοντέλα. Τέλος, πραγματοποιήθηκαν υποκειμενικά τεστ ποιότητας ομιλίας ώστε να αξιολογηθεί η συνεισφορά των τριών προτεινόμενων μεθόδων στη βελτίωση της ποιότητας της συνθετικής ομιλίας. Τα τεστ αυτά επιβεβαίωσαν την αξία των προτεινόμενων μεθόδων και τη συνεισφορά τους στη βελτίωση της ποιότητας στην συνθετική ομιλία.

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado do Rio de Janeiro / O objetivo deste trabalho é conhecer e compreender melhor os imprevistos no fornecimento de energia elétrica, quando ocorrem as variações de tensão de curta duração (VTCD). O banco de dados necessário para os diagnósticos das faltas foi obtido através de simulações de um modelo de alimentador radial através do software PSCAD/EMTDC. Este trabalho utiliza um Phase-Locked Loop (PLL) com o intuito de detectar VTCDs e realizar a estimativa automática da frequência, do ângulo de fase e da amplitude das tensões e correntes da rede elétrica. Nesta pesquisa, desenvolveram-se duas redes neurais artificiais: uma para identificar e outra para localizar as VTCDs ocorridas no sistema de distribuição de energia elétrica. A técnica aqui proposta aplica-se a alimentadores trifásicos com cargas desequilibradas, que podem possuir ramais laterais trifásicos, bifásicos e monofásicos. No desenvolvimento da mesma, considera-se que há disponibilidade de medições de tensões e correntes no nó inicial do alimentador e também em alguns pontos esparsos ao longo do alimentador de distribuição. Os desempenhos das arquiteturas das redes neurais foram satisfatórios e demonstram a viabilidade das RNAs na obtenção das generalizações que habilitam o sistema para realizar a classificação de curtos-circuitos. / The objective of this work is to know and understand the unforeseen in the supply of electricity, when there are short duration voltage variations (SDVV). The required databases for the diagnosis of faults were obtained through simulations of a model of radial feeder through software PSCAD/EMTDC. This work uses a Phase-Locked Loop (PLL) in order to detect and perform the estimation SDVV automatic frequency, phase angle and amplitude of the voltage and current from the power grid. This research is developing two artificial neural networks: one to identify and another to locate the SDVV occurred in the distribution system of electricity. The technique proposed here applies to three-phase feeders with unbalanced loads, which can have side extensions triphasic, biphasic and monophasic. In developing the same, it is considered that there is availability of measurements of voltages and currents at the node of the initial feeder and also in some points scattered along the distribution feeder. The performances of the architectures of neural networks were satisfactory and demonstrate the feasibility of ANNs in obtaining the generalizations that enables the system for the classification of short circuits.

Because little was known about how the masonry lighthouses constructed during the 19th century at exposed locations around the British Isles were responding to wave action, the dynamic response of the Eddystone lighthouse under wave impacts was investigated. Like other so called 'rock lighthouses', the Eddystone lighthouse was built on top of a steep reef at a site that is fully submerged at most states of the tide. Consequently, the structure is exposed to loading by unbroken, breaking and broken waves. When the breaking occurs, wave loading leads to complex phenomena that cannot be described theoretically due to the unknown mixture of air and water involved during the wave-structure interaction. In addition, breaking waves are generally distinguished from unbroken and broken wave due to the fact that they cause impulsive loads. As a consequence, the load effects on the structural response require a dynamic analysis. In this investigation the dynamic response of the Eddystone lighthouse is investigated both in the field and by means of a small-scale model mounted in a laboratory wave channel. In particular, field data obtained by the use of geophones, cameras and a wave buoy are presented together with wave loading information obtained during the laboratory tests under controlled conditions. More than 3000 structural events were recorded during the exceptional sequence of winter storms that hit the South-West of England in 2013/2014. The geophone signals, which provide the structural response in terms of velocity data, are differentiated and integrated in order to obtain accelerations and displacements respectively. Dynamic responses show different behaviours and higher structural frequencies, which are related to more impulsive loads, tend to exhibit a predominant sharp peak in velocity time histories. As a consequence, the structural responses have been classified into four types depending on differences of ratio peaks in the time histories and spectra. Field video images indicate that higher structural frequencies are usually associated with loads caused by plunging waves that break on or just in front of the structure. However, higher structural velocities and accelerations do not necessarily lead to the largest displacements of around a tenth of mm. Thus, while the impulsive nature of the structural response depends on the type of wave impact, the magnitude of the structural deflections is strongly affected by both elevation of the wave force on the structure and impact duration, as suggested by structural numerical simulations and laboratory tests respectively. The latter demonstrate how the limited water depth strongly affects the wave loading. In particular, only small plunging waves are able to break on or near the structure and larger waves that break further away can impose a greater overall impulse due to the longer duration of the load. As a consequence of the depth limited conditions, broken waves can generate significant deflections in the case of the Eddystone lighthouse. However, maximum accelerations of about 0.1g are related to larger plunging waves that are still able to hit the lighthouse with a plunging jet. When compared to the Iribarren number, the dimensionless irregular momentum flux proposed by Hughes is found to be a better indicator concerning the occurrence of the structural response types. This is explained by the fact that the Iribarren number does not to take into account the effects of the wide tidal range at the Eddystone reef, which has a strong influence on the location of the breaking point with respect to the lighthouse. Finally, maximum run up were not able to rise up to the top of the lighthouse model during the laboratory tests, despite this having been observed in the field. As a consequence, the particular configuration of the Eddystone reef and the wind could have a considerable bearing and exceptional values of the run up, greater than 40 m, cannot be excluded in the field.

No description available.

No description available.

Sabe-se que a formação de reservatórios altera a qualidade e a quantidade da água de montante e jusante e que a direção e a magnitude das alterações dependem de suas características construtivas, operacionais, morfométricas, bem como do regime hidrológico e climático da região. Porém, a maior parte deste conhecimento foi fundamentada em pesquisas de reservatórios com grande capacidade de regularização, que fazem parte da realidade do Pantanal, uma região que vem sendo impactada por um número cada vez maior de reservatórios com pequena capacidade de regularização, levantando questionamentos sobre seus possíveis efeitos no funcionamento da planície de inundação. Sendo assim, este trabalho procurou (i) identificar qual o fator chave determinante no processo de estratificação e mistura vertical do reservatório e se este pode influenciar na qualidade da água; (ii) avaliar os efeitos da formação e operação do reservatório na alteração da qualidade da água de montante e jusante e (iii) avaliar os efeitos da operação do reservatório na alteração do regime hidrológico de jusante, além de propor os limites preventivos para a sustentabilidade. O estudo foi desenvolvido no reservatório de Ponte de Pedra, localizado no rio Correntes, divisa dos estados de Mato Grasso e Mato Grosso do Sul (Centro Oeste do Brail), na fronteira entre o Pantanal e o Planalto. O reservatório apresentou prolongado período de estratificação vertical (mistura no inverno) dos parâmetros físicos e químicos da água nas partes médias e profundas, mantendo-se homogêneo na parte superior, onde se encontra a captação, não alterando as características da água de jusante. Entre os fatores analisados, o vento foi o único fator que influenciou significativamente a estrutura vertical da qualidade da água sendo beneficiada pelas características morfométricas e construtivas do reservatório. Longitudinalmente, a formação do reservatório alterou significativamente quatro dos dez parâmetros analisados, com redução média de 38% da turbidez, 28% do fósforo total, 23% dos sólidos totais e 14% do nitrato. Destes, apenas a turbidez e o nitrato foram afetados pelo controle operacional do tempo de retenção hidráulica. Em relação à alteração dos parâmetros do regime hidrológico anual, dos 31 analisados, os parâmetros de vazões mínimas de curta duração (1, 3 e 7 dias), vazões máximas de 90 dias e o número de pulsos baixos e altos foram significativamente alterados pela operação do reservatório. Destes, a vazão máxima de 90 dias e o número de pulsos altos resumem os impactos, e podem ser utilizados como parâmetros alvos para restauração e conservação do regime hidrológico. As vazões sazonais também foram significativamente alteradas, com maior impacto na estação seca (inverno). Com base na variabilidade natural do rio, foram propostos os limites preventivos para a sustentabilidade, com alterações diárias permitidas de ±18% no inverno, ±24% na primavera e ±22% no verão e outono, aplicados sobre a vazão natural. De maneira geral, as alterações na qualidade da água e no regime hidrológico provocado pela formação e operação do reservatório foram consideradas baixas, tanto em número de parâmetros alterados quanto nas magnitudes das alterações, e estas foram atribuídas às baixas concentrações de partículas e nutrientes na bacia, ao sistema de captação superficial, o curto tempo de retenção hidráulica, pequena capacidade de regularização associadas à sazonalidade no regime de chuvas e ventos na região, que limitam manobras operacionais para a maximização da eficiência energética. / The formation of reservoirs changes the quality and quantity of water, both upstream and downstream, and the direction and magnitude of such changes depend on their characteristics of construction, operation, morphometry, as well as hydrological regime and climate of the region. However, much of this knowledge was based on large reservoirs, which is not the reality of the Pantanal, an area that is being impacted by a growing number of reservoirs with low capacity for regularization, raising questions about possible effects on the floodplain functioning. In this way, this study aimed (i) to identify the key factor in the process of stratification and vertical mixing of the reservoir, and whether this can influence the water quality, (ii) to evaluate the effects of the reservoir formation and operation on the quality of water upstream and downstream of the reservoir, and (iii) to examine the effects of the reservoir operation on the downstream hydrological regime, in addition to propose preventive limits for sustainability. The study was conducted at Ponte de Pedra Reservoir, located on the Correntes river, the motto between the states of Mato Grasso and Mato Grosso do Sul (Central West Brazil), on the border between the Plateau and the Pantanal. The reservoir had an extended period of vertical stratification (mixture in the winter) of physical and chemical water parameters in the medium and deep parts of the water column, being homogeneous in the upper part where the water is capitation, without changing the characteristics of the downstream water. Among the factors analyzed, the wind was the only factor that significantly influenced the vertical structure of the water quality, favored by morphometric and constructive characteristics of the reservoir. Along the longitudinal axis, the reservoir formation significantly altered the turbidity and concentrations of total phosphorus, total solids, and nitrate, with mean reduction of 38, 28, 23 and 14% of their values. Among these, only turbidity and nitrate were affected by the operational control of the hydraulic retention time. In relation to the change in parameters of the annual hydrological regime, parameters of short-term minimum flows (1, 3 and 7 days), maximum flows of 90 days and the number of low and high pulses were significantly modified by the reservoir operation. Of these, the maximum flow of 90 days and the number of high pulses have summarized the impacts, and can be used as target parameters for restoration and conservation of the hydrological regime. Seasonal flows were also significantly altered, with the greatest impact in the dry season (winter). Based on the natural variability of the river, it was proposed preventive limits for sustainability, with permitted daily changes of ±18% in winter, ±24% in spring and ±22% in summer and autumn applied on the natural flow. In general, changes in water quality and hydrological regime caused by the reservoir formation and operation were considered low, both in number of altered parameters as magnitudes of such changes, and these characteristics were ascribed to low concentrations of particles and nutrients in the basin, to the surface capitation system, short hydraulic retention time, low capacity of regularization associated with the seasonality of the regime of rainfall and wind in the region, limiting operational maneuvers for maximizing the energy efficiency.

Submitted by Edileide Reis (leyde-landy@hotmail.com) on 2013-04-15T13:02:56Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Gilson.pdf: 19626817 bytes, checksum: 8e4c9b7b129f8413772174899c27310a (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Rodrigo Meirelles(rodrigomei@ufba.br) on 2013-05-09T17:47:05Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Gilson.pdf: 19626817 bytes, checksum: 8e4c9b7b129f8413772174899c27310a (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2013-05-09T17:47:05Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Gilson.pdf: 19626817 bytes, checksum: 8e4c9b7b129f8413772174899c27310a (MD5) Previous issue date: 2011 / O paradigma dominante da modernidade encontra-se em crise. Os avanços em diversas áreas científicas mostram que muitas certezas elaboradas desde a virada antropocêntrico-racionalista constituem-se em equívocos, necessitando ser re-elaboradas. O projeto de sociedade mais fraterna e igualitária não dá sinais de que irá se concretizar sob o influxo do capitalismo neoliberal. A tudo isto não é indiferente o direito, que vem sofrendo grande pressão da sociedade para que evolua em busca de resolver, de maneira mais rápida e eficaz, as novas demandas oriundas da pós-modernidade. No Brasil, esta resposta tem sido buscada através de restrições ao ambiente argumentativo processual, fazendo com que o processo judicial caminhe mais rapidamente para a constituiçao da imutabilidade das decisões judiciais, com cada vez menos espaço para a argumentação das partes litigantes. Percebe-se que está ocorrendo a desnaturação semântica do princípio razoável duração do processo, cada vez mais identificado com a celeridade processual e implementado através de políticas públicas de acordo e de fechamento das instâncias recursais. Tais medidas, no intuito de materializar a duração razoável do processo, positivada na Constituição Federal Brasileira através da Emenda n. 45/2004, podem significar uma perda de legitimidade do direito e das decisões judiciais, por conta da abreviação indevida do ambiente argumentativo processual, o qual representa a maior manifestação do princípio democrático na jurisdição. Urge, pois, analisar estas restrições ao ambiente argumentativo processual, verificando em que medida são desejáveis e necessárias à prestação jurisdicional em tempo razoável ou se representam uma ameaça à legitimidade do direito e de suas decisões, devendo ser evitada. / Salvador