This thesis is rooted in the research tradition known as coalition politics, where governments, political parties and political institutions are the central focus. The main emphasis here is on government instability and the question of why governments in modern parliamentary democracies often come to an end before the next regular election. In five distinct but interrelated papers, the thesis explores the issue of early government termination and how it is affected by public support, economic developments and the functioning of the state apparatus. The studies included in this thesis generally take a quantitative approach and make use of a dataset that contains 640 governments in 29 European democracies. Their joint goal is to improve our understanding of when early termination happens by introducing and testing new explanatory factors as well as by improving how previously identified factors are modelled. The first paper focuses on Central and Eastern Europe. It shows that the stability of governments in that region is affected by slightly different factors than those that impact on governments in Western Europe. In particular, ideological factors and political institutions are found to be less important in Central and Eastern Europe while the formal power basis of the government and the country’s economic performance matter more. In the second paper, co-authored with Professor Torbjörn Bergman, the state is brought into government stability research. The paper shows that countries with a lower quality of governance and a less efficient public sector have less stable governments. This is mainly because government parties struggle to achieve their policy goals when the state apparatus is inefficient and corrupt. Paper 3, co-written with Associate Professor Johan Hellström, looks at how different types of governments respond to economic challenges. In particular, this paper demonstrates that the same changes in economic circumstances (e.g. increases in unemployment or inflation) have different effects on cabinet stability depending on which type of government is in charge. Single party governments are better equipped to deal with economic changes, because they are better positioned to devise new policy responses without having to compromise with other parties. Coalition governments, in contrast, become significantly more likely to terminate early when the economy takes a turn for the worse. Finally, over the course of two papers I first explore new techniques for analysing polling data and then use them to empirically test whether governments sometimes choose termination as a way to cope with bad poll numbers. Most of the existing techniques for pooling polls and forecasting elections were explicitly designed with two party systems in mind. In Paper 4, I test some of these techniques to determine their usefulness in complex, multiparty systems, and I develop some improvements that enable us to take advantage of more of the information in the data. In the final paper, I combine the two themes of polling and government stability by looking at how changes in government popularity affect the likelihood of premature dissolution. I find that governments, particularly single party governments, do, in fact, use terminations as a strategic response to changes in their popularity among the public. When support is high, governments tend to opportunistically call an early election, whereas they tend to abandon or reshuffle the government when support is low.

The thesis analyses several ways to use financial derivatives in public debt management. It mainly focuses on the manager's motives to use derivatives, associated risks and other fundamental aspects, including the known examples of a questionable use of swaps. In the last chapter the thesis also uses historical data to determine whether the use of derivatives can have a positive effect on the Czech republic's interest expenditures.

Les travaux présentés dans cette thèse s’intéressent aux rendements individuels de l’éducation et de la formation, et cherchent à mettre en évidence des modalités d’intervention publique plus efficaces pour accroître ces rendements. Les deux premiers chapitres de ce travail étudient la manière dont les rendements des investissements individuels en éducation peuvent être optimisés en améliorant l’efficacité des systèmes éducatifs et de formation professionnelle. La dernière étude porte sur les liens entre l’investissement en capital humain et l’environnement légal ou économique qui l’encadre. Le premier article de cette thèse s’intéresse en particulier à l’effet de la scolarisation dans une école privée française en CP et CE1 sur les résultats scolaires en CE2. Le second chapitre vise à mesurer l’efficacité des formations certifiantes destinées aux demandeurs d’emploi français sur leur retour en emploi. La dernière étude montre le lien existant entre la flexibilisation du marché du travail anglais et l’accès à la formation des salariés. Les analyses réalisées reposent sur des méthodes microéconométriques qui visent à identifier l’effet causal des politiques publiques étudiées. Nous utilisons ainsi la méthode des variables instrumentales et celle des différences de différences. Cette thèse repose également sur l’estimation de modèles de durée, en utilisant la méthode du "timing-of-events" ou en estimant un modèle à risques concurrents bivarié. / This thesis work focuses on individual returns to education and training, and aims at highlighting more efficient public interventions in order to increase these returns. The first two chapters of this study consider how returns to individual investments can be optimized by improving public policies efficiency in the field of education and vocational training. The last study analyzes the link between investment in human capital and the legal and economic environment in which it is realized. In details, the first article of this thesis focuses on the effect of private schooling during the first and second grade in France on test scores achievement in third grade. The second chapter aims at measuring the efficiency of certifying training programs followed by unemployed individuals on their probability to find a job. The last study shows the link between the English labor market flexibility and workers’ access to training. The analyses conducted rely on microeconometric methodologies which aim at identifying the causal effect of considered public policies. We thus use the instrumental variable methodology as well as the difference-in-difference one. This thesis also relies on the estimation of duration models, using the “timing-of-events” methodology, and estimating a bivariate competing risks model.

Cette thèse porte sur l'offre de travail et les décisions de fécondité des femmes en France. Dans le Chapitre 2, j’estime un modèle hierarchique en utilisant des micro-données Françaises et Allemandes. Le but étant de voir de quelle manière les régions Françaises et Allemandes différent, une fois que l’on contrôle pour des variables individuelles. Le Chapitre 3 étudie l'impact d'une première, d'une deuxième et d'une troisième naissance sur l'offre de travail et les salaires des femmes et des hommes. La question ici est de voir dans quelle mesure ces naissances ont un impact négatif, voire peut-être même positif dans le cas des hommes. Le Chapitre 4 étudie la durée qu’une mère passe hors du travail après la naissance de son premier enfant, et comment elle décide de retourner en activité. Un modèle de risques concurrents est utilisé pour cela. Le chapitre 5 présente un logiciel de gestion de versions. Ce type de logiciel simplifie grandement la production scientifique. / This thesis focuses on the labour supply and fertility decisions of women in France. In Chapter 2, I estimate a hierarchical model using French and German micro-data. The aim is to see how the French and German regions differ, once you control for individual variables. Chapter 3 examines the impact of first, second and third births on the labour supply and wages of women and men. The question here is to see to what extent these births have a negative impact, and perhaps even a positive one in the case of men. Chapter 4 examines how long a mother spends out of work after the birth of her first child, and how she decides to return to work. A competing risks model is used for this. Chapter 5 presents version control software. This type of software greatly simplifies scientific production.

Socle des revenus et de la stabilité politique, l'emploi est l'instrument par lequel l'Homme s'épanouit et acquiert une place en société. Il fait l'objet de constantes interventions législatives en vue de permettre au salarié de faire pleinement carrière dans l'entreprise. On a vu ces dernières décennies diverses actions assurant non seulement au salarié la permanence du rapport contractuel, mais également, celles visant à le protéger contre la perte de l'emploi. Il en est ainsi dans la majorité des systèmes juridiques, notamment en France et dans les pays de l'espace OHADA tels que le Cameroun où les pouvoirs publics s'efforcent de conduire des reformes visant à pérenniser le rapport contractuel. Ces mesures prennent de l'importance à la naissance même de la relation de travail. Durant celle-ci, interviennent la suspension, la formation professionnelle et la règle du maintien des contrats en cas de restructuration, en vue de parvenir à l'impératif de stabilité des emplois. Il en est également des diverses dispositions visant à protéger l'emploi contre les risques de perte pouvant provenir de l'employeur. Cette étude a pour objet l'analyse des techniques de protection du rapport contractuel. Elle retrace l'ensemble des mesures préconisées pour garantir la conservation de l'emploi dans l'entreprise, fait ressortir des insuffisances et propose quelques solutions. / Basis of income and political stability, employment is the gateway through which man gets his roots and acquires a place in society. It is the object of constant legislative intervention in order to assist the worker to fully exercise his career in the enterprise. We have seen these last decades diverse actions geared towards not only assuring to the worker the stability of contractual relations, but equally actions to guarantee him against loss of employment. It is thus the case in a majority of legal systems, notably France and within the OHADA sphere such as Cameroon where the State authorities are striving to drive reforms aimed at preserving contractual relationship. These measures gain importance during the establishment of the employment contract. During the execution of the relationship, involved the suspension, professional training and maintaining the rule of contracts in the event of restructuring in order to achieve the imperative of job stability. It is equally same for various dispositions aimed at protecting employment against the risk of loss which could result from the employer. This study aims to analyze the different techniques of protection of contractual relationship. It relates the recommended possible ways to secure jobs in the enterprise. However, it also displays the insufficiencies and proposes some solutions.

Abstrakt Bakgrund: Forskning visar att generell anestesi kan bidra till kognitiv dysfunktion postoperativt. En alltför djup anestesi och/eller en lång duration av anestesi är två faktorer som kan inverka på kognitionen med besvär såsom minnesproblem och koncentrationssvårigheter. Anestesisjuksköterskans roll är att individanpassa anestesin för att inte orsaka för djup anestesi och därmed har det blivit alltmer vanligt att monitorera anestesidjupet för att minska på onödigt lidande för patienten. Syfte: Syftet är att kartlägga anestesidjup och anestesiduration  hos patienter med självskattad  kognitiv svikt efter elektiv ortopedisk operation. Metod: För att kartlägga detta valdes en retrospektiv observationsstudie med tvärsnittsdesign med insamlad data från kvalitetsregister. Resultat: Av 920 patienter var det 116 patienter som uppgav kognitiv dysfunktion dag 1 postoperativt och upp till över 16 dagar postoperativt med  ett genomsnittsvärde på 37,7 i entropy och 104,4 minuter i anestesiduration. Slutsats: Desto längre duration av anestesin och ju djupare anestesi desto mer kognitiv påverkan postoperativt. Anestesidjupsmonitorering bör användas mer frekvent och önskvärt är att bedöma kognition preoperativt med ett mätinstrument för att kunna se om skillnad finns postoperativt.

När en företagsobligation och en statsobligation har samma löptid och har en skillnad i avkastning, så kallas denna skillnad för kreditspread. Ett känt koncept inom finansvärlden är att risk har en stark koppling till avkastning. När emittenten av obligationen inte kan återbetala överenskommen utdelning eller principiellt lånebelopp så klassas detta som en betalningsinställelse. Eftersom det generellt sett är större risk för en betalningsinställelse för ett företag än för en stat, så vill investerare bli kompenserade för den extra risken de tar sig an. Den totala risken som utgör skillnaden i avkastning kan i sin tur delas upp i flera olika riskkomponenter. Syftet med vår uppsats är att undersöka ifall likviditetsrisk, ränterisk och kreditrisk har en effekt på kreditspread för företagsobligationer på den svenska marknaden. Med detta som bakgrund så har vi samlat in historiska data på förfallna obligationer under de senaste 10 åren via databaserna Thomson Reuter Datastream och Eikon. Vi har sedan laddat ned obligationsspecifika egenskaper i form av finansiella nyckeltal för samtliga obligationer. Dessa nyckeltal har valts för att till bästa förmåga representera och mäta respektive risk. Exempelvis så har vi använt oss av nyckeltalet “bid-ask-spread” för att mäta likviditetsrisk hos en obligation. För att undersöka sambandet mellan våra valda risker och kreditspread så genomförde vi ett hypotestest. Vi skapade en nollhypotes och en alternativhypotes som vi sedan testade med hjälp av en multipel regression. Nollhypotes (H0): Studiens utvalda variabler har inte en effekt på den kreditspread hos svenska företagsobligationer Alternativhypotes (Ha): Studiens utvalda variabler har en effekt på den kreditspread hos svenska företagsobligationer Slutsatsen var att vi kunde statistiskt påvisa ett positivt samband mellan riskernas storlek och storleken på obligationens kreditspread. Detta gjordes både för riskerna var för sig och för modellen när den blev testad i sin helhet. Den bakomliggande teorin bakom variablerna kunde därför antas vara korrekt även vid applicering på svenska marknaden för det senaste decenniet. Vi har som ambition att denna studie skall kunna agera som ett verktyg för fundamental analys för framtida investerare samt vidare studier inom området obligationer på svenska marknaden

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A conexão de geradores distribuídos em sistemas de distribuição deve ser cuidadosamente avaliada para que os mesmos auxiliem efetivamente na melhoria do desempenho das redes elétricas, buscando reduzir ou eliminar eventuais situações que causem a degradação da qualidade da energia elétrica fornecida aos consumidores, entre outros aspectos. Neste contexto, existem vários trabalhos que analisam a influência da conexão de geradores distribuídos no perfil de tensão da rede elétrica, frequência, desequilíbrio de fases e distorção harmônica. No entanto, há poucos trabalhos analisando os efeitos da desconexão de geradores distribuídos na qualidade da energia fornecida aos consumidores. Uma vez operando em paralelo com a rede de distribuição, esses geradores influenciam o perfil de tensão e o comportamento dos dispositivos reguladores de tensão. Como consequência, sua desconexão pode provocar variações de tensão intensas causando danos ou mau funcionamento às cargas. A desconexão pode ser repentina ou devido à atuação da proteção anti-ilhamento, seguida dos procedimentos de religamento automático do alimentador, se houver. Visando estudar este problema, o qual tende a se tornar uma nova preocupação das concessionárias de energia elétrica, e no intuito de minimizar e/ou eliminar os possíveis efeitos negativos dessas variações de tensão, esta pesquisa propõe o desenvolvimento de um método de controle dos taps dos reguladores de tensão. Neste método, o controle dos taps foi modelado como um problema de otimização, minimizando as violações de tensão mencionadas anteriormente e também a quantidade de operações dos reguladores de tensão ao longo de um dia típico. A otimização foi solucionada com um Algoritmo Genético e os resultados obtidos indicaram que é possível minimizar as variações de tensão usando a curva de carga do sistema para planejar a operação dos reguladores de tensão. / The connection of distributed generators in an electric power system should be evaluated carefully to ensure that they effectively assist in improving the performance of electrical networks, reducing or eliminating any situations that cause degradation of the power quality of the consumers, and other issues. In this context, there are several studies that analyze the influence of generators connected to distribution systems and how they affect the frequency, cause variations in voltage magnitude, voltage unbalance and harmonic distortion. However, there are a few studies analyzing the effects that the disconnection of distributed generators induces to the power quality of consumers. Once operating in parallel with the distribution network, these generators have an effect on voltage variations and voltage regulator devices. As a result, disconnection can cause severe voltage variations causing damage or malfunction to the loads. The disconnection may be sudden or due to the action of anti-islanding protection, followed by the procedure to reconnect the substation, if it is possible. In order to study this problem, which tends to become a new power quality concern for electric utilities, and in order to minimize and / or eliminate the possible side effects of the voltage variations, this research proposes the development of a control method of voltage regulators\' taps. In this method, the control of taps was modeled as an optimization problem which aimed to minimize these voltage variations aforementioned and also the amount of voltage regulator operations over a typical day. The optimization was solved by a Genetic Algorithm and the results obtained demonstrate that it is possible to minimize the voltage variation by using the system load curve to plan the operation of voltage regulators.

Como as Variações de Tensão de Curta Duração (VTCDs) estão entre as perturbações mais difíceis de serem monitoradas, uma vez que são ocasionadas por fatores aleatórios e imprevisíveis, a monitoração do Sistema de Distribuição (SD) representa uma providência essencial para a obtenção de informações representativas para a regulamentação de novos indicadores relativos a esses distúrbios. Neste cenário, este trabalho busca garantir a completa observabilidade das VTCDs em SD, quando da incidência de qualquer tipo de curto-circuito, através da alocação ótima de medidores. Para a determinação da magnitude da tensão em cada nó do SD é utilizado o método das posições de falta, denotando assim, a influência e a propagação das VTCDs sobre a rede como um todo. Na sequência, é determinada uma matriz binária resultante que observa os afundamentos de tensão de forma simultânea para todos os tipos de faltas. Posteriormente, é proposta a redução desta matriz para diminuir o esforço computacional em SDs de grande porte. Ainda, é analisada a vulnerabilidade de cada nó do SD para estabelecer a sua posterior ponderação no processo de otimização. Os resultados revelam que a metodologia de alocação apresentada torna o processo de obtenção da solução ótima ágil e direto, pois menos execuções computacionais são necessárias para obter diferentes soluções ótimas e garantir a monitoração dos afundamentos de tensão para todos os tipos de curtos-circuitos. Além disso, pela metodologia, tem-se também a prioridade de instalação dos medidores conforme a maior observabilidade dos afundamentos de tensão, possibilitando a escolha do melhor arranjo de medidores que atenda aos limites orçamentários das distribuidoras de energia. / Short Duration Voltage Variations (SDVVs) are among the most difficult disturbances to be monitored, since they are caused by random and unpredictable factors. Hence, the Distribution System (DS) monitoring is an essential step for obtaining representative information for the regulation of new power quality indices for these disturbances. In this scenario, this work aims to ensure the entire observability of SDVVs, considering any short circuit occurrence in the DS, based on algorithm to achieve the monitors\' optimal allocation. In order to determine the voltage magnitude at each node, the fault positions method is used, showing the influence and propagation of SDVVs on the DS. Subsequently, a resulting binary matrix is determined. This matrix observes the voltage sags, simultaneously, for all fault types. Then, the downsizing of this matrix is proposed in order to reduce the computational effort in large DSs. Furthermore, the vulnerability of each DS node is analyzed to establish the relative weighting in the optimization process. The results show a faster and more direct allocation methodology to obtain the optimal solution, because fewer computational executions are needed for different optimal solutions and to ensure the voltage sags monitoring for all short circuits types. Moreover, the power quality monitor installation priority is performed according to the higher observability of the voltage sags, making it possible to choose the best arrangement of monitors that meets the budget constraints of the power utilities.