MESHWR / Department of Hydrology and Water Resources / This study was aimed at investigating the long term seasonal and annual changes in rainfall duration and magnitude at Luvuvhu River Catchment (LRC). Rainfall in this catchment is highly variable and is characterised of extreme events which shift runoff process, affect the timing and magnitude of floods and drought, and alter groundwater recharge. This study was motivated by the year to year changes of rainfall which have some effects on the availability of water resources. Computed long term total seasonal, annual rainfall and total number of seasonal rainy days were used to identify trends for the period of 51 years (1965- 2015), using Mann Kendal (MK), linear regression (LR) and quantile regression methods. The MK, LR and quantile regression methods have indicated dominance of decreasing trends of the annual, seasonal rainfall and duration of seasonal rainfall although they were not statistically significant. However, statistical significant decreasing trends in duration of seasonal rainfall were identified by MK and LR at Matiwa, Palmaryville, Levubu, and Entabeni Bos stations only. Quantile regression identified the statistically significant decreasing trends on 0.2, 0.5 and 0.7 quantiles only in the Palmaryville, Levubu and Entabeni Bos, respectively. Stations with non-statistically significant decreasing trends of annual and seasonal rainfall had magnitude of change ranging from 0.12 to 12.31 and 0.54 to 6.72 mm, respectively. Stations with non-statistically increasing trends of annual and seasonal rainfall magnitude had positive magnitude of change ranging from 1.51 to 6.78 and 2.05 to 6.51 mm, respectively. The Study recommended further studies using other approaches to determine the duration of rainfall to improve, update and compare the results obtained in the current study. Continuous monitoring and installation of rain gauges are recommended on the lower reaches of the catchment for the findings to be of complete picture for the whole catchment and to also minimize the rainfall gaps in the stations. Water resources should be used in a sustainable way to avoid water crisis risk in the next generations. / NRF

C’est au cours de l’étude de la distinction entre la formation et l'exécution du contrat que s’est imposée une réflexion sur une autre alternative au modèle du contrat à exécution instantanée : le contrat de durée. En consacrant un modèle de contrat hors du temps le droit contractuel s’est construit sur une chimère. En effet, en niant l’infiltration du temps dans le contrat, les frontières entre la formation et l’exécution se sont fissurées. Devant cet état de fait, les attentes de clarification de la réforme furent nombreuses. Cependant, la réforme du droit des contrats bien que codifiant les apports épars de la jurisprudence n’en a pas tiré les conséquences de fond en consacrant une possible incomplétude du contrat à sa formation. En continuant à ignorer l’impact de la durée sur les contrats qui s’exécutent dans le temps, la réforme a aggravé l’éclatement des concepts et a empêché le droit commun d’évoluer.L’auteur s’est attaché donc à vouloir englober l’ensemble de la réalité contractuelle en faisant émerger à côté du modèle du contrat échange, le modèle du contrat de durée. La proposition d’un contrat de durée serait donc de nature à réconcilier le droit contractuel entre la culture contractuelle de l’échange et la culture contractuelle de la coopération qui prend naissance dans la durée. La durée du contrat transforme le contrat et émancipe son exécution en permettant au moment de la formation une certaine incomplétude. / While studying the distinction between the preparation and the execution of a contract, a reflection on a new alternative to the contract of instantaneous performance imposed itself: an adjustable circumstance-based contract. Devoted to a timeless model of contract, contract law has built itself on a pipe dream. Indeed, the negation of time’s infiltration in a contract led the boundaries between preparation and execution to crack apart. In front of this situation the expectations for clarification with the reform were numerous. However, the 2016 reform of contract law, although systematising the scattered provisions of case law, did not drew the needed conclusions by sanctioning the possible incompleteness of a contract in its preparation. Still ignoring time’s impact in time-based contracts, the 2016 reform has worsened the splitting of concepts and prevented the evolution of common right. Thus the author focused on embracing the whole of contractual reality and developing alongside the swap contract: the adjustable circumstance-based contract. Contract law has indeed been confronted to types of contract that struggled to integrate duration but which, in the need to happen alongside a unique swap model, distorted its concepts. This is why the offer of an adjustable circumstance-based contract would be able to reconcile, in contract law, the contract culture of swap and the contract culture of cooperation which arise in duration.

This thesis proposes a new class of bivariate autoregressive conditional median duration models for matched high-frequency data and develops some inferential methods for an existing univariate model as well as the bivariate models introduced here to facilitate model fitting and forecasting. During the last two decades, the autoregressive conditional mean duration (ACD) model has been playing a dominant role in analyzing irregularly spaced high-frequency financial data. Univariate ACD models have been extensively discussed in the literature. However, some major challenges remain. The existing ACD models do not provide a good distributional fit to financial durations, which are right-skewed and often exhibit unimodal hazard rates. Birnbaum-Saunders (BS) distribution is capable of modeling a wide variety of positively skewed data. Median is not only a robust measure of central tendency, but also a natural scale parameter of the BS distribution. A class of conditional median duration models, the BS-ACD and the scale-mixture BS ACD models based on the BS, BS power-exponential and Student-t BS (BSt) distributions, have been suggested in the literature to improve the quality of the model fit. The BSt-ACD model is more flexible than the BS-ACD model in terms of kurtosis and skewness. In Chapter 2, we develop the maximum likelihood estimation method for the BSt-ACD model. The estimation is performed by utilizing a hybrid of optimization algorithms. The performance of the estimates is then examined through an extensive Monte Carlo simulation study. We also carry out model discrimination using both likelihood-based method and information-based criterion. Applications to real trade durations and comparison with existing alternatives are then made. The bivariate version of the ACD model has not received attention due to non-synchronicity. Although some bivariate generalizations of the ACD model have been introduced, they do not possess enough flexibility in modeling durations since they are conditional mean-based and do not account for non-monotonic hazard rates. Recently, the bivariate BS (BVBS) distribution has been developed with many desirable properties and characteristics. It allows for unimodal shapes of marginal hazard functions. In Chapter 3, upon using this bivariate BS distribution, we propose the BVBS-ACD model as a natural bivariate extension of the BS-ACD model. It enables us to jointly analyze matched duration series, and also capture the dependence between the two series. The maximum likelihood estimation of the model parameters and associated inferential methods have been developed. A Monte Carlo simulation study is then carried out to examine the performance of the proposed inferential methods. The goodness-of-fit and predictive performance of the model are also discussed. A real bivariate duration data analysis is provided to illustrate the developed methodology. The bivariate Student-t BS (BVBSt) distribution has been introduced in the literature as a robust extension of the BVBS distribution. It provides greater flexibility in terms of the kurtosis and skewness through the inclusion of an additional shape parameter. In Chapter 4, we propose the BVBSt-ACD model as a natural extension of the BSt-ACD model to the bivariate case. We then discuss the maximum likelihood estimation of the model parameters. A simulation study is carried out to investigate the performance of these estimators. Model discrimination is then done by using information-based criterion. Methods for evaluating the goodness-of-fit and predictive ability of the model are also discussed. A simulated data example is used to illustrate the proposed model as compared to the BVBS-ACD model. Finally, in Chapter 5, some concluding comments are made and also some problems for future research are mentioned. / Thesis / Master of Science (MSc)

The dissertation aims to obtain an integrated and comprehensive perspective on measurement issues that play a strategic role in organisations that aim at continuous quality improvement through TQM. The multidimensional definition of quality is proposed to view quality holistically. The definition is dynamic, thus dimensions are subject to evolution. Measurement of the quality dimensions is investigated. The relationship between quality and cost, productivity and profitability respectively is examined. The product quality dimensions are redefined for processes. Measurement is a strategic component ofTQM. Integration of financial measures with supplier-; customer-; performance- and internal process measurement is essential for synergism. Measurement of quality management is an additional strategic quality dimension. Applicable research was integrated. Quantitative structures used successfully in industry to achieve quality improvement is important, thus the quality management maturity grid, cleanroom software engineering, software factories, quality function deployment, benchmarking and the ISO 9000 standards are briefly described. Software Metrics Programs are considered to be an application of a holistic measurement approach to quality. Two practical approaches are identified. A framework for initiating implementation is proposed. Two strategic software measurement issues are reliability and cost estimation. Software reliability measurement and modelling are introduced. A strategic approach to software cost estimation is suggested. The critical role of data collection is emphasized. Different approaches to implement software cost estimation in organisations are proposed. A total installed cost template as the ultimate goal is envisaged. An overview of selected software cost estimation models is provided. Potential research areas are identified. The linearity/nonlinearity nature of the software production function is analysed. The synergy between software cost estimation models and project management techniques is investigated. The quantification aspects of uncertainty in activity durations, pertaining to project scheduling, are discussed. Statistical distributions for activity durations are reviewed and compared. A structural view of criteria determining activity duration distribution selection is provided. Estimation issues are reviewed. The integration of knowledge from dispersed fields leads to new dimensions of interaction. Research and practical experience regarding software metrics and software metrics programs can be successfully applied to address the measurement of strategic indicators in other industries. / Business Management / D. Phil. (Operations Research)

摘要 衡量壽險公司利率風險的初步作法是估算保單的存續期間。保單的存續期間因現金流量模式的不同與一般債券的存續期間有很大的差異。壽險保單未來不只會產生現金流出 （給付和費用），還會有現金流入（保費），其淨現金流量因而有可能變號，所以壽險保單的存續期問可能小於○，也可能大於到期日，甚至還可能因為準備金接近○的關係而有很大的數值。此外，保單的存續期間不太受死亡率下降的影響，解約率升高通常會使存續期問的數值降低，而佣金的平準化則會使原本正的存續期問變小。從壽險公司銷售保單組合可能的結果（平穩、成長、衰退等三種型態）來分析負債存續期間，由其結果可知一個新創立或成長型的壽險公司其所面臨利率風險的衝擊要大於一個處於平穩型或衰退型的壽險公司。 關鍵字：存續期間、利率風險、淨現金流量、壽險保單、準備金 / Abstract Estimating the duration of the life insurance policy is the first step in measuring the interest rate risk of the life insurance company. Life insurance policy's duration is quite different from bond's due to the difference in the pattern of cash flows. Life insurance policies generate not only cash outflows as payments to policyholders from insurance companies but also cash inflows as premiums from policyholders to insurers. Furthermore, the net cash flow usually turns from inflow to outflow as time goes by. The duration of the life insurance policy therefore could be negative or longer than the maturity of the policy. It could even be huge if its reserve is close to zero. Besides, the mortality rate does not have a significant impact on policy duration; early surrenders of policies would reduce policy duration in general; and leveling commission rate would make positive duration smaller. Findings concluding from analyzing the likely results, referring to the steadying, growing and declining modes, of insurance portfolios offered by life insurance companies for analyzing their liability duration, indicate that the interest rate risk exposure by a start-up life insurance company or a growing life insurance company is greater than a life insurance company that is at a steadying or declining phase. Keywords: duration, interest rate risk, net cash flow, life insurance policies, reserve.

本文主要關注：何種原因造成2011年阿拉伯之春期間的內戰發生與否。在評估由Boix、Collier和Hoeffler，以及Fearon和Laitin所提出的內戰理論後，我發現單獨適用Collier和Hoeffler即可有效又簡約地解釋阿拉伯之春期間的情況。此外，我認為「和平持續期」(peace duration)和「半民主」(anocracy)可能是內戰的必要條件。為了進一步確認理論的解釋力，我將焦點轉移至探索造成理論預測例外（如阿爾及利亞和利比亞）的原因。最後，我提出對理論發展和政策的一些建議。 / The main concern of this study lies in what is the cause behind whether civil war broke out during the Arab Spring (2011). By evaluating civil war theories by Boix, Collier and Hoeffler, and Fearon and Laitin, I find that applying the theory by Collier and Hoeffler alone can effectively and parsimoniously explains the situation during the Arab Spring. In addition, I identify two variables: “peace duration” and “anocracy”, which might be the necessary conditions behind the civil wars during the Arab Spring. To further assure the explanatory power of theories, I switch the focus to explore the reasons why there are exceptions, such as Algeria and Libya, out of the theoretical prediction. Finally, I present some recommendations for theoretical development and policy.

Background: Breastfeeding confers health and social benefits on both mother and baby and is thus a key global public health priority, with exclusive breastfeeding for the first six months recommended. A variety of factors can influence a woman’s decision to initiate breastfeeding but a short duration of breastfeeding appears to be common in developed countries. In the UK, promotion of breastfeeding has been government policy since 1974 and gradually the incidence has increased. In Scotland in 2010 the incidence was 74% but by one week 17% of women had given up. A minority of women find that their babies attach easily at birth and more than half report problems at this time. The prevalence of exclusive breastfeeding falls sharply in the first few weeks and the introduction of formula is associated with a shorter duration. It is therefore crucial to understand what happens at this time to enable women to continue breastfeeding effectively. Study Aim: To use Social Cognitive Theory (SCT) to explore and help explain the expectations, knowledge and experiences of women and midwives with regard to breastfeeding initiation. Methods: A systematic review of qualitative studies synthesised using thematic analysis and SCT was conducted and afforded insight into what had been known before and highlighted further aspects that needed to be explored with a qualitative study. The qualitative study was comprised of five focus groups with ten antenatal women, eight postnatal women and eighteen midwives. Photographs included in a leaflet “Feeding cues at birth”, and the chart of “Feeding cues after the first few hours” were developed and used as focussing exercises during the focus groups and interviews. The focus groups and interviews were recorded, transcribed and analysed using a hybrid process of inductive and deductive thematic analysis which integrated data driven codes with theory driven codes based on SCT. Results: Twenty one studies were included in the systematic review and identified clear differences in the experiences of women when breastfeeding was going well as compared to when it was going wrong at the start. There were also differences in the midwives’ knowledge, experience and confidence when breastfeeding was going well in contrast to when it was going wrong. The synthesis did not identify any qualitative studies relevant to initiation which explored skin contact, instinctive behaviour or strategies to resolve failure to attach in the first few days after birth, from the perspectives of mothers and midwives. These topics were therefore explored in detail in the qualitative study. Few mothers recruited to my study experienced instinctive behaviour and successful attachment (in SCT enactive behaviour) at birth. The majority of mothers did not experience attachment at birth and struggled to persist and maintain their motivation to enable breastfeeding initiation in an unfamiliar environment. Midwives’ social expectations and environmental circumstances made women centred care difficult. Midwives considered that sleepy babies who were unable to feed were normal, but women were unprepared for this, compounding the difficulties in initiating breastfeeding. The triangulation of the findings from the systematic review and the qualitative study provide a more complete picture of contributory factors to understanding of difficulties in breastfeeding initiation. Conclusion: It is recognised that behaviour interacts with emotions, perceived abilities and the environment, as in triadic reciprocal causation, which affects peoples’ decisions, experiences and abilities to enable the successful initiation of breastfeeding. Social Cognitive Theory could be used as a framework to develop strategies and materials to enhance women’s confidence both antenatally and in the postnatal period. In a minority of women, breastfeeding goes well and is more likely when the baby is an active participant and the midwife a knowledgeable and confident supporter. This is not the case for the majority of women and babies or their midwives. There is a need to consider strategies to develop appropriate skills and environmental changes that would in turn lead to changes in behaviour and successful interventions. More emphasis should be made clinically on facilitating instinctive behaviour. The current position where babies’ sleepy behaviour is considered normal in this particular environment could be challenged. Social Cognitive Theory could be utilised in research to develop strategies to increase women’s and midwives’ confidence specifically in initiation.

No description available.

This thesis is an approximation of several years spent in the studio. It represents an equitable exercise of memory and speculation.

Cette recherche s’intéresse au phénomène qu’est l’allongement de la durée des conventions collectives. Avant juin 1994, la durée maximale d’une convention collective était fixée à trois ans. La venue de la mondialisation a chamboulé les entreprises qui, elles, pour s’adapter et survivre à cette nouvelle réalité et demeurer compétitives, ont dû procéder à des investissements majeurs, des restructurations, miser sur des relations de partenariat avec les syndicats, etc. (Boivin, 1998). Pour ce faire, elles devaient s’assurer d’obtenir une stabilité et une paix industrielle (Grant et Paquet, 1998). C’est à ce moment que nous avons vu l’apparition d’ententes qui visaient à prolonger la durée maximale des conventions collectives, fixées à trois ans, sans contrevenir aux différentes dispositions du Code du travail (L.R.Q. c.C-27). Ces « contrats sociaux » devaient compter différentes caractéristiques particulières. C’est le 10 mai 1994 que le législateur québécois a déplafonné la durée des conventions collectives (Mayer, 1999). Tel qu’établi, les transformations au niveau de l’environnement ont poussé les acteurs à revoir leurs façons de faire. Cela a mené à une déconflictualisation des relations du travail (Jalette, Bourque et Laroche, 2008). Les acteurs ont adopté des stratégies de négociation de plus en plus coopératives, ils ont eu un recours accru à la concertation, et ont développé une relation de partenariat (Maschino et coll., 2001). Nous observons en parallèle à une tendance à l’allongement de la durée des conventions collectives. Nous nous questionnons à savoir ce qui a principalement motivé autant les syndicats à négocier ce type d’entente et ainsi, renoncer à leur droit de grève, et aussi quels sont les avantages ou inconvénients pour les employeurs de négocier de telles ententes. De manière plus spécifique, notre question de recherche est la suivante : Quels sont les effets de l’allongement de la durée des conventions collectives sur les relations du travail locales en entreprise? Notre analyse vise à vérifier six propositions de recherche : 1- Les relations du travail sont transformées par la durée d’une convention collective de travail, laquelle est influencée par l’environnement. 2- L’allongement de la durée des conventions collectives de travail amène les parties à davantage recourir à des stratégies de négociation intégrative. 3- L’allongement de la durée des conventions collectives de travail contribue à diminuer le nombre de conflits de travail 4- L’allongement de la durée des conventions collectives de travail change la nature des manifestations du conflit sur le marché du travail. 5- L’allongement de la durée des conventions collectives transforme le contenu des conventions collectives de travail par l’intégration de clauses nouvelles. 6- L’allongement de la durée des CCT diminue le rapport de force du syndicat. Dans le but de répondre à ces différents questionnements, nous avons utilisé une méthodologie qualitative de recherche et plus précisément, l’étude de cas. Cette dernière fut conduite en trois étapes : la préparation, la collecte de données et l’interprétation (Merriam, 1998). Les données de notre étude ont été colligées durant l’été et l’automne 2010. Tout d’abord, nous avons effectué des entretiens semi structuré à l’aide d’une grille d’entrevue. Cette grille d’entrevue fut adaptée en fonction des acteurs rencontrés, et surtout de la partie qu’ils représentent. Nous avons interrogé les acteurs tant patronaux que syndicaux, c’est-à-dire : du côté patronal, nous avons rencontré les responsables des relations du travail oeuvrant au siège social ainsi que les conseillers en relations du travail en charge de négocier ou d’appliquer la convention collective des différents établissements couverts par l’étude. Du côté syndical, nous avons rencontré les conseillers syndicaux en charge également de négocier la convention collective et de veiller à son application. Au total, nous avons mené onze entretiens. En guise de comparaison, nous avons aussi procédé à une analyse de contenu de 139 conventions collectives du secteur de l’alimentation. Nous cherchions à savoir si les conventions collectives de longue durée avaient tendance à comporter majoritairement une plus grande présence de clauses en lien avec les 7 caractéristiques des « contrats sociaux » mentionnées par Mayer (1999). Ces caractéristiques sont les suivantes : transparence économique et de gestion, participation à la gestion, programme de qualité totale, formation, flexibilité dans l’organisation du travail, stabilité de l’emploi et mécanismes de gestion de l’entente. Mots clés : allongement, durée, conventions collectives, relations du travail, loi 116, déplafonnement des conventions collectives, NBI et concertation. / Our research examines a recent phenomenon: the lengthening of the duration of collective agreements. The maximum duration of a collective agreement used to be three years. With the advent of globalization, all has changed drastically. In order to survive and remain competitive, businesses have had to adjust to this new paradigm by investing massively, restructuring, building on renewed partnerships with the unions and the like (Boivin, 1998). To succeed, it was imperative that they foster a climate characterized by stability and industrial peace (Grant and Paquet, 1998). Thus, they started to sign agreements seeking to extend the maximum duration of collective contracts (usually three years), while abiding by the provisions of the Code du travail (L.R.Q. c. C-27). These so-called « social covenants » had to embody various specificities. Then, on May 10, 1994, the Québec government lifted the ceiling on the duration of collective agreements (Mayer, 1999). As previously mentioned, increased globalization, with its attending changes, spurred all stakeholders to modify their ways of doing business. Labor relations were no longer a major source of conflict (Jalette, Bourque and Laroche, 2008). Negotiation strategies were increasingly steeped in cooperation and consensus-building, and the negotiating parties developed a relationship akin to a partnership (Maschino et al., 2001). At the same time, the duration of collective agreements has started increasing. We will examine what motivated the unions to negotiate such agreements, thus surrendering their right to strike and also whatever benefits – or drawbacks – such a trend held in store for the employers. More specifically, we will endeavor to find out: What are the effects of increasing the duration of collective agreements on local labor relations? For the purpose of our analysis, we have formulated the following research hypotheses: 1. Labor relations undergo transformations as a result of the duration of a collective agreement being increased; said duration hinging on the business climate. 2. With longer-term collective agreements, negotiating parties apply better co-operative strategies. 3. Longer-term collective agreements reduce the number of labor conflicts 4. Longer-term collective agreements change the way these conflicts play out in the workplace. 5. Longer collective agreement periods transform collective agreement contents by the addition of new provisions. 6. Longer-term collective agreements weaken the unions negotiating position. While aiming to address the aforementioned hypotheses, we have opted for a qualitative research methodology, namely the case study. The process involved three steps: data preparation, collection and interpretation (Merriam, 1998). The data we used were collected over the summer and fall of 2010. First, we conducted semi-structured interviews using a specific interview grid, which we adjusted according to individual respondents and, first and foremost, the parties they represented. Thus, we interviewed stakeholders from both sides, unions and employers. On the employers’ side, we met labor relations specialists working out of head offices as well as labor relations consultants responsible for negotiating or enforcing the collective agreements in force in various organizations covered by our study. On the union side, we met with union representatives who were also responsible for negotiating or enforcing the collective agreements. Eleven interviews were conducted in total. As a means of comparison, we also analyzed the content of 139 collective agreements in the food sector. We wanted to determine if most long-term collective agreements tended to include a greater amount of provisions related to the seven elements typical of the « social covenants » mentioned in Mayer, 1999. These are: economic and managerial transparency, shared management, total quality programs, training, work-planning flexibility, employment stability and collective agreement management processes. Key words: long-term agreements, duration, collective agreements, labor relations, Bill 116, IBN (interest-based negotiation) and consensus-building.