Submitted by Claudia Berti (claudiabberti@gmail.com) on 2018-06-04T08:46:28Z No. of bitstreams: 2 Tese_DOC_702806.pdf: 2723844 bytes, checksum: 41136d680ab0e665de58c6e74bbe7fe5 (MD5) Carta Comprovante_DOC_702806.pdf: 377043 bytes, checksum: 09e3818f3e8c5eaed8195aa5beef0112 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Eunice Nunes (eunicenunes6@gmail.com) on 2018-06-04T12:44:18Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 2 Tese_DOC_702806.pdf: 2723844 bytes, checksum: 41136d680ab0e665de58c6e74bbe7fe5 (MD5) Carta Comprovante_DOC_702806.pdf: 377043 bytes, checksum: 09e3818f3e8c5eaed8195aa5beef0112 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Eunice Nunes (eunicenunes6@gmail.com) on 2018-06-04T12:59:57Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 2 Tese_DOC_702806.pdf: 2723844 bytes, checksum: 41136d680ab0e665de58c6e74bbe7fe5 (MD5) Carta Comprovante_DOC_702806.pdf: 377043 bytes, checksum: 09e3818f3e8c5eaed8195aa5beef0112 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-06-04T13:00:10Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 Tese_DOC_702806.pdf: 2723844 bytes, checksum: 41136d680ab0e665de58c6e74bbe7fe5 (MD5) Carta Comprovante_DOC_702806.pdf: 377043 bytes, checksum: 09e3818f3e8c5eaed8195aa5beef0112 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-08-28 / Não recebi financiamento / Situation Awareness (SAW) is a concept widely used in areas that require critical decision making, and refers to the ability of an individual or team to perceive, understand and anticipate the future state of a current situation, which is influenced by the dynamicity and critical nature of events. SAW is considered as the main precursor of the decision-making process. In the emergency response area, obtaining and maintaining SAW requires a great effort from the human operator, the cognitive overload required in the activity, high level of stress involving the care, exhaustive shifts that may negatively reflect the care process and consequently the decision process as one all. Decision support systems that address aspects of the SAW can contribute to the enrichment and maintenance of the operator's SAW and in the decision-making process. Given this context, this work presents a Situational Predictive Model to systematize the development of modules to support the human operator's SAW in emergency response systems, which provides for the use of service models and protocols of institutions acting as prototypical situations. Objectively the model proposes the prediction and or the premature identification of the situation while the applicant has emergency assistance. A Conceptual Model was developed that guided the construction of the Predictive Model and will serve as basis for other developments. So-called human sensors and social sensors have become important sources of information especially in social networks. For the treatment of this data, text classifier methods are used with satisfactory results that cover the areas of education, security, entertainment, commercial, among others. For the emergency responses domain, object of this thesis, human sensors are the main source of information and machine learning techniques as text classifiers show important alternatives. In order to be validated, the Predictive Situations Model was implemented with the creation of a vocabulary based on the actual decision-making models of the Military Police of the State of São Paulo (PMESP) and the development of algorithms two classifying methods (Bag of Words and Naïve Bayes). Tests were performed with four different types of input instances (sentences). For all the metrics analyzed (accuracy, accuracy and coverage) the tests demonstrated superiority of the Naïve Bayes algorithm. The difference between the hit rates in relation to the Bag of Word algorithm for the class of instances with the highest degree of identification difficulty was over 37%. These results demonstrated good potential the Predictive Situations Model to collaborate with the existing systems of emergency services, allowing more attendance effectiveness and reduction of the cognitive overload that the attendants are routinely subjected to. / Consciência da situação ou consciência situacional (Situation Awareness – SAW) é um conceito amplamente utilizado em áreas que requerem tomada de decisão crítica, e se refere à habilidade de um indivíduo ou equipe de percepção, compreensão e antecipação de estado futuro de uma situação corrente, que é influenciada pela dinamicidade e natureza crítica de eventos. SAW é considerada como principal precursora do processo decisório. Em domínios, por exemplo, de resposta à emergência, obter e manter SAW requer do operador humano grande esforço, pela sobrecarga cognitiva exigida na atividade, alto nível de estresse que envolve o atendimento, turnos exaustivos que podem refletir negativamente no processo de atendimento e consequentemente no processo decisório como um todo. Sistemas de apoio à tomada de decisão que contemplam aspectos da SAW podem contribuir no enriquecimento e manutenção da SAW do operador e no processo decisório. Diante desse contexto, este trabalho apresenta um Modelo Preditivo de Situações para sistematizar o desenvolvimento de módulos de apoio a SAW de operadores humanos em sistemas de resposta à emergência, que prevê a utilização de modelos de atendimento e protocolos das instituições atuando como situações prototípicas. Objetivamente o modelo propõe a previsão e ou a identificação prematura da situação em tempo real ao atendimento da emergência. Conjuntamente foi desenvolvido um Modelo Conceitual que norteou a construção do Modelo Preditivo e servirá como base a outros desenvolvimentos. Atualmente os denominados sensores humanos e sensores sociais, especialmente de redes sociais, estão sendo utilizados, de forma crescente, como importantes fontes de informação para a melhor compreensão de situações em diferentes áreas de aplicação. No domínio de resposta à emergência, objeto de estudo desta tese, os sensores humanos são a principal fonte de informação, sobre a qual técnicas de aprendizagem de máquina como classificadores de texto foram aplicadas com resultados muito positivos. Para ser validado, o Modelo Preditivo de Situações foi implementado com a criação de um vocabulário baseado nos modelos decisórios reais da Polícia Militar do Estado de São Paulo (PMESP) e com o desenvolvimento de algoritmos de dois métodos classificadores (Bag of Words e Naïve Bayes). Testes foram realizados com quatro tipos diferentes de instâncias de entrada (frases). Para todas as métricas analisadas (precisão, acurácia e cobertura) os testes demostraram superioridade do algoritmo Naïve Bayes. A diferença entre a taxa de acerto em relação ao algoritmo Bag of Word para a classe de instâncias com maior grau de dificuldade de identificação foi superior a 37%. Tais resultados demonstraram bom potencial do Modelo Preditivo de Situações de colaborar com os sistemas já existentes de atendimento emergencial, possibilitando maior efetividade no atendimento e diminuição da sobrecarga cognitiva a que são submetidos os atendentes cotidianamente.

L’augmentation de la fréquence et de l’intensité des événements de grande ampleur est unanime. En France, l’État impose à l’échelle communale, de se préparer à de tels événements en établissant un Plan Communal de Sauvegarde. Cependant les instances décisionnaires à ce niveau ne disposent pas d’outils leurs permettant au préalable de connaitre la capacité de fonctionnement de leur organisation. Ces travaux de recherche proposent une méthode d’évaluation a priori de l’organisation locale d’urgence pour permettre aux instances décisionnaires, d’identifier des points vulnérables dans leur organisation et ainsi leur fournir une aide à la décision. Cette méthode d’évaluation repose sur le formalisme d’une méthode de modélisation établie, permettant d’une part d’appréhender la complexité des éléments mis en jeux dans l’organisation de gestion d’événements et d’autre part sert de base pour les mécanismes d’évaluation. Ces derniers sont quant à eux supportés par le formalisme des arbres de défaillance. Cependant, ce formalisme est limitant, car il ne propose qu’une évaluation de la défaillance à deux états discrets (complètement nulle ou complètement avérée). C’est pourquoi, ces travaux se sont intéressés à la conception d’une méthode d’évaluation à base d’arbre de défaillance multi-États. Cela se traduit par une nouvelle définition des événements et des portes pour les arbres utilisés dans la méthode de modélisation retenue. Un questionnaire a été créé pour collecter auprès des gestionnaires, les informations sur les états de défaillance. Les résultats de l’évaluation sont présentés sous forme de tableaux de bord et permettent ainsi de guider le choix des actions d’amélioration. / The increase in frequency and intensity of major disasters make a consensus. In France, the state imposes to local administrations to be prepared to face such events by describing their local organizations in a Local Emergency Response Plan (LERP). However, there are no existing tools for decision-Makers at this authority scale to a priori assess functioning capacity of the organization described in their plans. This research work proposes an a priori assessment method of Local Emergency Response Plans, to allow local authorities to identify organizational vulnerabilities of their plans, and thus giving to them an aid to decision-Making. This assessment method is laid on an established formalism of modelling methods. This allows, in one hand, to catch the complexity of elements’ stakes in emergency management and in another hand to lay assessment mechanisms for this one. These mechanisms are supported by Fault-Tree formalism. However, this is restricting because the failure of modelled elements can only be assessed on two discrete levels: complete functioning or complete dysfunctioning. This is why this work aims to build an assessment method based on Multi-Level Fault-Tree. This means that new gates have to be described according to the assessed object (LERP). Furthermore, modelled elements have to be improved to take into account Multi-Level considerations in the chosen modelling method. According to that, a questionnaire has been developed to collect information from local authorities about failure states of modelled elements. The results of this assessment are presented in a dashboard format. The purpose is first, to guide local authorities by having a quick overview of the overall organization system represented in the LERP. Secondly, it helps them to plan the vulnerabilities reductions in a management program.

This master‘s thesis is focused on the creation of the Emergency Response Plan (ERP) for an Approved Training Organisation (ATO). The first part of this thesis describes aviation organisations and other transport organisations that require Safety management system. The second part analyses requirements for documentation and regulations for applying Emergency Response Plan. In the third section there is an ERP general manual which helps ATO with the creation of the document. The last part contains the ERP created for a model ATO with the help of the general manual from the third chapter.

Mozambique is one of the countries most affected by natural hazards in the world. Therefore it can benefit greatly from enhancements on its early warning system. Cell broadcast, which is a technology able to send simultaneous alert messages to all mobile phones in a geographical area has gained attention of emergency authorities since various catastrophes in the years 2000’s and increasing diffusion of the mobile network. This research has looked into the disaster risk management routines in Mozambique, interviewing relevant institutions, to identify the currently in use early warning system and analyze the circuit of information from detecting a hazard until the transmission of alert messages to the population. The goal of this research has been to identify how alert messages are sent to the population and, based on currently available infrastructure, analyze the possibilities to use Cell Broadcast to target alerts to all subscribers on specific geographic zones. It has been identified that the country already uses a solution that sends SMS to a list of phone numbers registered in a database. Nonetheless, telecommunication operators in the country are willing to cooperate with emergency authorities to design a solution in which Cell Broadcast can be used to strategically target alerts to subscribers at designated areas of risk. In this way, enabling enhanced accuracy and efficiency of the public alert system in Mozambique, with reduced time between detection and the simultaneously delivery of public alert messages to the entire population or only to people located on relevant geographic zones. Furthermore, the results also allowed to speculate on the viability of automated solutions, which can be used in combination to the enhancements that Cell Broadcast can bring to disaster risk management routines.

What if the emergency response directly knew exactly where to go and what to do if a road accident occured? During the last ten years the number of motorcyclists in Sweden has doubled. Every year, more than 300 riders are seriously injured and over 40 die in road accidents. Being found in time is critical to increase the chance of survival. The goal of this project is to use design methods to find a solution that enables a fast and adequate emergency response for motorcyclists and other unprotected road users. / Vad hade hänt om akutsjukvårdare direkt kände till var en olycka inträffat och vilken vårdinsats som behövdes? Under de senaste tio åren har antalet motorcyklister i Sverige fördubblats. Varje år skadas över 300 förare allvarligt, och över 40 omkommer i trafikolyckor. Att bli hittad i tid är kritiskt för att öka chansen för överlevnad. Målet med det här projektet är att med designmetoder hitta ett sätt att möjliggöra en snabb och adekvat räddningsinsats för motorcyklister och andra oskyddade motortrafikanter.

網絡是一個依據人與人之間的互動關係所建構出來的，它即是形成我們日常生活中的一部分，而政策網絡則是從網絡的生活環境概念化，進而系統化的分析方法，是較傳統分析方法更有彈性的分析架構。在現在的社會中，想要製造對立的關係很容易，想要挑出他人的問題也是容易的，但是如何促使人們溝通呢？在這個民眾對政府信任低落的時代，社會上的急需解決的公共議題卻未見減少，若里長能發揮一個更作為連結政府和民眾之間溝通的良好媒介，發揮其作為中介樞紐的功能。本研究更期許里長在核子事故緊急應變的政策宣導中，是一個能讓民眾和政府之間的溝通更為順暢的角色。透過政策網絡中的社會網絡分析方法，嘗試去解析在核二廠周遭地區的里長，他們在緊急應變網絡中所擁有的角色、地位及其對網絡的影響，並進一步提出改善當前緊急應變宣導僵化的困境。 本研究透過社會網絡分析的中介性分析結果，發現雖然在緊急應變宣導的政策網絡中，里長確實擁有強大的動員能量，更在網絡中有無法抹煞的影響力，但里長卻並非網絡的單一中介核心，在地方上的緊急應變宣導網絡中，形成了多元的中介核心，這些網絡參與者或因為公務上的正式關係，或因為掌握核能的專業知識，因此，各自在網絡中占有重要的地位，但是若核子事故發生時，這些參與者又會形成環環相扣的宣導和疏散系統，缺一不可。故本研究認為里長的角色，確實會對緊急應變宣導產生不同層面的影響，里長在網絡中也具有相當深厚的稟賦，但更多時候里長只是消極的在執行。 最後本研究彙整出不同受訪者的意見，歸納出了兩個方向性不同的建議，期望負責緊急應變宣導的單位能重新省思這些根本性的問題：第一，只有讓民眾真正的體驗過，體驗才會轉換成有價值的經驗和記憶；第二，對於緊急應變宣導的結構性省思，政府擁有的人力、資源和時間有限，政府官員相較於民眾是否是更需要宣導的群體？

Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited / The United States has spent over $2 billion during the last six years to reconstruct and stabilize Afghanistan through the Commander's Emergency Response Program (CERP). This effort is only one of several simultaneous programs attempting to stabilize Afghanistan using approaches including providing humanitarian aid, education, government and security reform, and construction. Construction often involves simple infrastructure development with tangible benefits including increased access, growing commerce and better security. Construction projects can also employ the local population and, if done correctly, develop a sense of community and social capital. What causes construction projects to miss the mark failing to result in creating a stable community? This research compares four different construction programs including CERP, National Solidarity Program (NSP), United States Agency for International Development (USAID), and Provincial Reconstruction Teams (PRT) to determine their potential impact on Afghan stability. It uses a combination of statistical regression, correlation, geospatial and temporal analysis to compare completed construction with recorded SIGACTs (Significant Acts) reported by U.S. forces and NGOs. The results imply that the identified stabilization programs are not using construction effectively to create social capital and stability.

This diploma thesis deals with using of interregional and international aid forces and means of rescue services during floods. The first chapter describes Civil Protection legislative conditions, coordination, capacity, monitoring tools and information support in the Czech republic, EU and UN. The second capter contains cases study "Floods in BiH, Serbia and Croatia 2014", "Floods in Czech republic 2002". The case studies are focused on EU Civil Protection Mechanism response. Other part describes and compares three High capacity pumping teams. Aim of the last part is design optimization of emplacement of the modules in EU.

Optimization of relief networks in humanitarian logistics often exemplifies the need for solutions that are feasible given a hard constraint on time. For instance, the distribution of medical countermeasures immediately following a biological disaster event must be completed within a short time-frame. When these supplies are not distributed within the maximum time allowed, the severity of the disaster is quickly exacerbated. Therefore emergency response plans that fail to facilitate the transportation of these supplies in the time allowed are simply not acceptable. As a result, all optimization solutions that fail to satisfy this criterion would be deemed infeasible. This creates a conflict with the priority optimization objective in most variants of the generic vehicle routing problem (VRP). Instead of efficiently maximizing usage of vehicle resources available to construct a feasible solution, these variants ordinarily prioritize the construction of a minimum cost set of vehicle routes. Research presented in this dissertation focuses on the design and analysis of efficient computational methods for optimizing high-consequence variants of the VRP for relief networks. The conflict between prioritizing the minimization of the number of vehicles required or the minimization of total travel time is demonstrated. The optimization of the time and capacity constraints in the context of minimizing the required vehicles are independently examined. An efficient meta-heuristic algorithm based on a continuous spatial partitioning scheme is presented for constructing a minimized set of vehicle routes in practical instances of the VRP that include critically high-cost penalties. Multiple optimization priority strategies that extend this algorithm are examined and compared in a large-scale bio-emergency case study. The algorithms designed from this research are implemented and integrated into an existing computational framework that is currently used by public health officials. These computational tools enhance an emergency response planner's ability to derive a set of vehicle routes specifically optimized for the delivery of resources to dispensing facilities in the event of a bio-emergency.

No description available.