企業擴大事業規模其中重要的策略，就是透過併購的手段，快速取得市場佔有率與人才，2009年五月凱基證券以290億的金額拿下台證證券，與台証證券2009年第一季季報淨值比較，溢價48%，相當於以每股21.88元併購，由於證券業的營收變動幅度極大股市的漲跌有相當的關聯，本文嘗試利用評價模型探討此合併價格是否合理。 本研究以帳面價值、市價淨值比、本益比及自由現金流量等方法計算台証證券的價格，並做相關敏感性分析，實證結果顯示，帳面價值評價法、市價淨值比評價法、本益比評價法均顯示凱基證券投資台証證券的價格過高，但是以自由現金流量折現法則與此次併購台証證券的價格較接近。 考量併購後，讓凱基證券由第八名券商一躍成為市場第二名的券商，所獲得到的綜效，顯示凱基入主台証證券的合併價格可能已納入前瞻性的策略性的競爭因素的考量 / When enterprises want to expand their business scale,one of the important strategies is through mergers and acquisitions , to obtain market share and manpower. KGI Securities merged Taiwan Securities with NT$290 billion dollars in May 2009 , and the acquisition price represents a 48% premium, compared to its book value .Because securities industry revenues fluctuate according to the stock market's circles to a great degree, the question that this thesis want to answer is whether the acquisition price is reasonable or not? This study uses Book Value Method, Price/Book Value Ratio method, Price/Earning Ratio method and Free Cash Flow Discount Model to calculate the fair value of Taiwan Securities, The fair value according to the book value price, P/E ratio methods show that the acquisition price is too high. However, free cash flow method indicate that the acquisition price of Taiwan Securities is close to its fair value. Because of the merger and the acquisition of Taiwan Securities, KGI Securities improve its ranking to the second from the eighth of the brokerage market shares, which indicate that acquisition price has taken into concern the strategic synergy for KGI Securities.

The Master's Thesis deals with the valuation and the enterprise value determination. The thesis is divided into two parts. The theoretical-methodological part presents the basic principles for the valuation and defines the notion of value; indicates the particular groups of method used in compliance with the valuation objective. Special attention is devoted to the yields methods, FCFF, FCFE, and DCF models. The aim of the application part is to appoint the value of the Company ITEST plus, s.r.o to the date 30 April 2014. The application part includes company profile, strategic analysis, and financial analysis, prognosis of value drivers, financial plan, and final valuation. The discounted cash flow method - free cash flow to the equity is used for appointing the value of the enterprise. The lower limit value of the Company is determined on the accounting property of the Company.

The aim of this thesis is to evaluate the company ZETOR TRACTORS a.s. The diploma thesis is divided into two parts. The first one - theoretical part contains the terms, procedures and methods that must be defined before the actual valuation. It includes more detailed information about strategic analysis and its components, financial analysis, the procedure for making financial plan and the various valuation methods. The second part - practical part contains methods applied to the company ZETOR TRACTORS a.s. In the conclusion of the thesis the company is valued using DCF entity method and EVA.

In 1981, Banz discovered evidence suggesting that small-cap firms outperform large-cap firms when considering risk-adjusted returns. Banz (1981), called this the “size effect” and raised concerns regarding the ability of current asset pricing models to set accurate prices for assets. This resulted in new models being developed, such as the Fama and French three-factor model which takes the size of a company into consideration (Fama & French, 1992). However, since the discovering of the size effect, several researchers have started to question its existence. (Asgharian & Hansson, 2008) Moreover, short after Banz findings, a study by Keim (1983) introduced results that complements the size effect. Keims study suggests that the size effect is present due to the fact that small-cap firms outperform large- cap firms during the month of January. This seasonal anomaly is called the “January effect” and could possibly be the reason for the existence of the size effect. The purpose of this study is to investigate if there is a size effect and/or a January effect present on the Swedish stock market (OMX) when using Enterprise Value as the measure for size. Enterprise Value has been chosen in order to consider the full capital structure of companies, hence, not solely the equity value. In order to answer these research questions, a quantitative study has been conducted on companies being listen on the OMX during the time period 2000-2019. The findings of the research are that there is no size effect present on the OMX. Furthermore, the research has found that there is a January effect present on the OMX. This paper suggests that the January effect might have been the reason for the presence of the size effect in history, but as of now, the size effect has diminished but the January effect still remains.

This study aims to search for a relationship between enterprise value and capital structure. It specifically targets the Swedish stock market OMXS small cap, observing 48 companies listed on the market between the years 2014-2019. The methodology used is a multiple regression analysis with the dependent variable being the enterprise value and the independent variable being the debt to equity ratio along with five other mediating variables.  The result of the analysis show a statistically significant but negative relation between enterprise value and debt to equity ratio, generating evidence supporting the pecking order theory. / Denna studie syftar till att undersöka om det finns en relation mellan företagsvärde och kapitalstruktur. Urvalet för studien är bolag noterade på Stockholmsbörsen OMXS small cap, där 48 bolag identifierats mellan åren 2014-2019. Metoden som applicerats för att undersöka denna studie är en multipel regressionsanalys där den beroende variabeln är företagets värde och den oberoende variabeln är skuldsättningsgraden samt ytterligare fem oberoende variabler.   Regressionsresultatet visar på ett statistiskt signifikant samband mellan företagsvärde och skuldsättningsgrad som även är negativt, vilket genererar bevis som stöder pecking order teorin.

This thesis is divided into three chapters. The first chapter defines the objective of the work. The second section summarizes the theoretical and methodological part. Theoretical and methodological part deals with analysis of the area, preparation and implementation of the project, methods of evaluating investment and defines a project risk. The third part is the part of the application. It is about putting theoretical knowledge into practise. The third chapter contains an analysis of the area, description of the company, economic valuation and asessment of investment risk.

從本研究得知國內上市櫃國際觀光旅館業創造價值之動因，計有 加權平均資金成本、投入資本、稅後淨營業利潤、銷售利潤率、資本週轉率與住房率六個價值動因，其中加權平均資金成本與投入資本和EVA®呈負相關，稅後淨營業利潤、投入資本、銷售利潤率、資本週轉率與住房率與EVA®呈正相關，至於平均每日房價、餐飲坪效則與EVA®不相關，表非顯著之價值動因。 經以EVA®評估台北市主要十家國際觀光旅館的經營績效結果，大型觀光旅館之經營績效具有正的EVA®，以晶華表現最佳，君悅次之，中型觀光旅館之經營績效以西華較佳，老爺次之。經營規模固影響著EVA®之大小，然企業是否具正的超額報酬率才是關鍵。由本研究實證分析顯示，不論大型或中型旅館業，只要原始投入資本低或正確產品定位，配合優秀的經營團隊，都可產生正的EVA®企業價值。 創造國際觀光旅館價值策略及旅館投資案評估方法，建議採經濟附加價值EVA®法或DCF法，也就是以未來旅館營運可產生自由現金流量折現值的方法，來避免掉入不動產買賣行情陷阱，造成過度不當投資，另外也應減少資金大量投入土地資本，改採長期租用方式、爭取國際連鎖管理公司採EVA®為計算基礎之管理費或獎勵金，以解決現行收入和營業利益計費不合理性模式、透過開源節流策略，提高投入資本報酬率ROIC、在現有已投入設備資本下，採取產品差異化的行銷、並導入EVA紅利制度，降低固定人事費用與能源費用提高利潤率。 為維持旅館經營長期超額報酬的期間，在有重新改裝(Renovation)機會時，應以新加入市場者心態，設法創造大躍進式全新的旅館業價值，建立旅館新價值曲線(Value curve)，追求市場領先競爭優勢，不但應分別從同業競爭標準的產品、服務和運輸三構面思考外，更應針對顧客對旅館的真正需求項目,予以增加或超越同業標準，並縮減或刪除顧客根本不在意的服務項目，以達兼顧顧客的需求、企業價值的創造與降低經營成本的效果。 / The following six factors will affect the value created from the listed international hotels: WACC, IC, NOPLAT, PM%, CT% and OCC%. The WACC and IC are negative correlated to EVA®, the NOPLAT, IC, PM%, CT% and OCC% are positive correlated to EVA® and the ADR and F&B are no correlated to EVA®. This paper uses EVA® to evaluate the operating results of ten major international hotels in Taipei. We find the large hotels have positive EVA® operating results, the Grand Formosa Regent Taipei Hotel is the best, and the Grand Hyatt Taipei is the second. Sherwood Hotel is the best in the medium-size hotels, and Hotel Royal Taipei is the second. The operating size will affect the EVA® result and the key factor is the Excess-Ordinary Returns. In our study we discover both large and medium size hotels will have positive EVA® if the have low original input capital, correct product position and excellent operating team. The study suggests using EVA® or DCF, discounting the future free cash flow from hotel operating, to evaluate the value of international hotels. This way will avoid the over investment in real estate. Hotels can improve the unreasonable Franchise and Affiliation Fee Structure by long-term leasehold and EVA® valuation model. They also can decrease fixed personal expense and resource cost to increase profit rate by increasing the ROIC of input capital return, varied product and using the EVA® bonus system. In order to keep the long-term Excess-Ordinary Returns of hotel operating, when the hotel has renovation opportunity, they should act as a new competitor and try to create entire new hotel value, create the new value curve. The hotel should seek the lead competition advantage and think about the product, service and transport. They should increase the quality of service which customer need, and decrease or deduct the service people don’t care, and then they will satisfy the customer, create the hotel value and decrease the operating cost.

Num mundo onde a competitividade ultrapassa as fronteiras nacionais, onde perturbações políticas e econômicas têm uma repercussão imediata em todo o globo, as empresas precisam cada vez estar preparadas para reagir rapidamente. A dinâmica dos movimentos globais não mais permite que as empresas e organizações possam esperar muito tempo para tomar medidas adaptativas. As respostas devem ser rápidas. O nível de incertezas onde a empresa opera deve ser melhor entendido, de forma que os riscos de uma tomada de decisão inadequada possam ser mitigados. Contudo, melhor que reagir aos fatos é buscar se antecipar aos mesmos. Mas a antecipação requer que os eventos possíveis sejam analisados, não apenas quanto aos seus possíveis impactos, mas também quanto à sua probabilidade de ocorrência. Este trabalho tem como objetivo maior propor um modelo de projeção e análise das demonstrações financeiras das empresas, segundo uma visão não apenas determinística, mas empregando técnicas probabilísticas, que permitam aos gestores das empresas passarem pelo processo de tomada de decisão com um nível de informação que permita a eles terem uma idéia muito clara do nível de risco que envolve as suas decisões. E este modelo torna isto possível ao se utilizar da metodologia de Monte Carlo. Esta metodologia permite que as variáveis críticas de uma empresa sejam tratadas a partir das suas distribuições de probabilidades de ocorrência. Assim, preços de produtos e insumos, variáveis externas tais como a taxa de juros, a taxa câmbio e a taxa da inflação podem ser avaliadas dentro de uma expectativa de ocorrência, como variáveis estocásticas, e não mais como constantes no problema. Com isto, podemos simular os resultados de uma empresa, que serão disponibilizados ao gestor segundo sua distribuição de probabilidade. Este processo permitirá que o gestor possa tomar quaisquer decisões, sejam de investimentos, de política de preços, de endividamento, etc., com um nível de informação muito mais adequado do que quando ele dispõe apenas de informações determinísticas com análise de sensibilidade, visto que esta última nada informa quanto à probabilidade de ocorrência do evento. / In a world where the competitiveness crosses the national borders, where political and economical instabilities have an immediate impact in the whole globe, the companies need to be prepared to give a fast response. The dynamics of the global movements no more allows that the companies and organizations take a long time to implement new alternatives. The answers should be fast. The uncertainties about company environment should be better understood, so the risks of a wrong decision can be mitigated. However, better than to react to the facts, is to anticipate them. The anticipation requests that the possible events must be deeply understood, not just as for their possible impacts, but also for its probability of occurrence. This work has as objective to propose a simulation and analysis financial model of companies, considering probabilistic techniques to allow managers go through decision process with a level of information sufficient enough to permit them to have a clear understanding about the risks involved in their decision. This model turns this possible through the utilization of Monte Carlo’s methodology. This methodology allows the critical variables of a company to be treated as random variables. Prices of products and macroeconomics variables such as interest rate, rate exchange and rate of inflation can be considered as random variables and not as constants in the model. The results of a company will be available to the managers with a statistic treatment and a probabilistic analysis. This process will facilitate the managers decisions process about investments, price policies, loans and others critical subjects to the future of the company with a much more appropriate level of information.

Submitted by MFEE Mestrado Profissional em Finanças e Economia Empresarial da EPGE (mfee@fgv.br) on 2015-02-23T22:41:25Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Thomaz Freire - Versão Final.pdf: 1993009 bytes, checksum: f6dcfe8872f8ff8f6d9f063b1ebcb1fe (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Marcia Bacha (marcia.bacha@fgv.br) on 2015-03-04T12:47:22Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Thomaz Freire - Versão Final.pdf: 1993009 bytes, checksum: f6dcfe8872f8ff8f6d9f063b1ebcb1fe (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Marcia Bacha (marcia.bacha@fgv.br) on 2015-03-04T12:47:40Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Thomaz Freire - Versão Final.pdf: 1993009 bytes, checksum: f6dcfe8872f8ff8f6d9f063b1ebcb1fe (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2015-03-04T12:47:54Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Thomaz Freire - Versão Final.pdf: 1993009 bytes, checksum: f6dcfe8872f8ff8f6d9f063b1ebcb1fe (MD5) Previous issue date: 2009-06-01 / This thesis provides evidence on how negative correlated is diversification and enterprise value. This relation is observed for different measures o f diversification and holds even if we control the effect of other variables known to be value drivers. We couldn't finda very robust prove that the negative effect of diversification falls when it appears in more related segments. Despi te that, our results indicate that this hypothesis should be true. Another interesting result is that like the focused companies, the highly diversified ones have also a greater value then the others. We find evidence on a curvilinear relation between diversification and value. The minimum value is found with an intermediary levei of diversification. Finally, we show that the effect of diversification on the enterprise value begins to be positive ifwe consider only the years of2007 and 2008 in our sample. It suggests that the perception of value for diversitied companies grows in a significant way within periods o f tinancial crisis. / Nesta dissertação, mostramos evidências de que a diversificação e o valor das empresas aparentam ser negativamente correlacionados. Esta relação é observada para diferentes métricas de diversificação e se mantém mesmo quando controlamos o efeito de outras variáveis conhecidas por influenciar o valor das empresas. Nossa análise não conseguiu comprovar de forma robusta se o efeito negativo causado pela diversificação diminui na medida em que esta se dá em segmentos mais relacionados. No entanto há indícios de que esta hipótese seja de fato verdadeira Um resultado interessante observado foi que assim como empresas especializadas, as empresas altamente diversificadas também possuem uma alta percepção de valor. Mostramos que a relação entre valor e diversificação possui o perfil de uma curva côncava com um ponto de mínimo justamente no nível de diversificação intermediário. Por fim, observamos que o efeito da diversificação no valor das empresas nos anos de 2008 e 2007 passou a ser positivo. O que nos sugere que em tempos de crise econômica, a percepção do valor de empresas mais diversificadas aumenta de forma significativa.

Num mundo onde a competitividade ultrapassa as fronteiras nacionais, onde perturbações políticas e econômicas têm uma repercussão imediata em todo o globo, as empresas precisam cada vez estar preparadas para reagir rapidamente. A dinâmica dos movimentos globais não mais permite que as empresas e organizações possam esperar muito tempo para tomar medidas adaptativas. As respostas devem ser rápidas. O nível de incertezas onde a empresa opera deve ser melhor entendido, de forma que os riscos de uma tomada de decisão inadequada possam ser mitigados. Contudo, melhor que reagir aos fatos é buscar se antecipar aos mesmos. Mas a antecipação requer que os eventos possíveis sejam analisados, não apenas quanto aos seus possíveis impactos, mas também quanto à sua probabilidade de ocorrência. Este trabalho tem como objetivo maior propor um modelo de projeção e análise das demonstrações financeiras das empresas, segundo uma visão não apenas determinística, mas empregando técnicas probabilísticas, que permitam aos gestores das empresas passarem pelo processo de tomada de decisão com um nível de informação que permita a eles terem uma idéia muito clara do nível de risco que envolve as suas decisões. E este modelo torna isto possível ao se utilizar da metodologia de Monte Carlo. Esta metodologia permite que as variáveis críticas de uma empresa sejam tratadas a partir das suas distribuições de probabilidades de ocorrência. Assim, preços de produtos e insumos, variáveis externas tais como a taxa de juros, a taxa câmbio e a taxa da inflação podem ser avaliadas dentro de uma expectativa de ocorrência, como variáveis estocásticas, e não mais como constantes no problema. Com isto, podemos simular os resultados de uma empresa, que serão disponibilizados ao gestor segundo sua distribuição de probabilidade. Este processo permitirá que o gestor possa tomar quaisquer decisões, sejam de investimentos, de política de preços, de endividamento, etc., com um nível de informação muito mais adequado do que quando ele dispõe apenas de informações determinísticas com análise de sensibilidade, visto que esta última nada informa quanto à probabilidade de ocorrência do evento. / In a world where the competitiveness crosses the national borders, where political and economical instabilities have an immediate impact in the whole globe, the companies need to be prepared to give a fast response. The dynamics of the global movements no more allows that the companies and organizations take a long time to implement new alternatives. The answers should be fast. The uncertainties about company environment should be better understood, so the risks of a wrong decision can be mitigated. However, better than to react to the facts, is to anticipate them. The anticipation requests that the possible events must be deeply understood, not just as for their possible impacts, but also for its probability of occurrence. This work has as objective to propose a simulation and analysis financial model of companies, considering probabilistic techniques to allow managers go through decision process with a level of information sufficient enough to permit them to have a clear understanding about the risks involved in their decision. This model turns this possible through the utilization of Monte Carlo’s methodology. This methodology allows the critical variables of a company to be treated as random variables. Prices of products and macroeconomics variables such as interest rate, rate exchange and rate of inflation can be considered as random variables and not as constants in the model. The results of a company will be available to the managers with a statistic treatment and a probabilistic analysis. This process will facilitate the managers decisions process about investments, price policies, loans and others critical subjects to the future of the company with a much more appropriate level of information.