abstract: This study performs numerical modeling for the climate of semi-arid regions by running a high-resolution atmospheric model constrained by large-scale climatic boundary conditions, a practice commonly called climate downscaling. These investigations focus especially on precipitation and temperature, quantities that are critical to life in semi-arid regions. Using the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model, a non-hydrostatic geophysical fluid dynamical model with a full suite of physical parameterization, a series of numerical sensitivity experiments are conducted to test how the intensity and spatial/temporal distribution of precipitation change with grid resolution, time step size, the resolution of lower boundary topography and surface characteristics. Two regions, Arizona in U.S. and Aral Sea region in Central Asia, are chosen as the test-beds for the numerical experiments: The former for its complex terrain and the latter for the dramatic man-made changes in its lower boundary conditions (the shrinkage of Aral Sea). Sensitivity tests show that the parameterization schemes for rainfall are not resolution-independent, thus a refinement of resolution is no guarantee of a better result. But, simulations (at all resolutions) do capture the inter-annual variability of rainfall over Arizona. Nevertheless, temperature is simulated more accurately with refinement in resolution. Results show that both seasonal mean rainfall and frequency of extreme rainfall events increase with resolution. For Aral Sea, sensitivity tests indicate that while the shrinkage of Aral Sea has a dramatic impact on the precipitation over the confine of (former) Aral Sea itself, its effect on the precipitation over greater Central Asia is not necessarily greater than the inter-annual variability induced by the lateral boundary conditions in the model and large scale warming in the region. The numerical simulations in the study are cross validated with observations to address the realism of the regional climate model. The findings of this sensitivity study are useful for water resource management in semi-arid regions. Such high spatio-temporal resolution gridded-data can be used as an input for hydrological models for regions such as Arizona with complex terrain and sparse observations. Results from simulations of Aral Sea region are expected to contribute to ecosystems management for Central Asia. / Dissertation/Thesis / Ph.D. Aerospace Engineering 2012

abstract: Accumulating evidence implicates exposure to adverse childhood experiences in the development of hypocortisolism in the long-term, and researchers are increasingly examining individual-level mechanisms that may underlie, exacerbate or attenuate this relation among at-risk populations. The current study takes a developmentally and theoretically informed approach to examining episodic childhood stressors, inherent and voluntary self-regulation, and physiological reactivity among a longitudinal sample of youth who experienced parental divorce. Participants were drawn from a larger randomized controlled trial of a preventive intervention for children of divorce between the ages of 9 and 12. The current sample included 159 young adults (mean age = 25.5 years; 53% male; 94% Caucasian) who participated in six waves of data collection, including a 15-year follow-up study. Participants reported on exposure to negative life events (four times over a 9-month period) during childhood, and mothers rated child temperament. Six years later, youth reported on the use of active and avoidant coping strategies, and 15 years later, they participated in a standardized psychosocial stress task and provided salivary cortisol samples prior to and following the task. Path analyses within a structural equation framework revealed that a multiple mediation model best fit the data. It was found that children with better mother-rated self-regulation (i.e. low impulsivity, low negative emotionality, and high attentional focus) exhibited lower total cortisol output 15 years later. In addition, greater self-regulation in childhood predicted greater use of active coping in adolescence, whereas a greater number of negative life events predicted increased use of avoidant coping in adolescence. Finally, a greater number of negative events in childhood predicted marginally lower total cortisol output, and higher levels of active coping in adolescence were associated with greater total cortisol output in young adulthood. Findings suggest that children of divorce who exhibit better self-regulation evidence lower cortisol output during a standardized psychosocial stress task relative to those who have higher impulsivity, lower attentional focus, and/or higher negative emotionality. The conceptual significance of the current findings, including the lack of evidence for hypothesized relations, methodological issues that arose, and issues in need of future research are discussed. / Dissertation/Thesis / Ph.D. Psychology 2013

abstract: Preoperative team briefings have been suggested to be important for improving team performance in the operating room. Many high risk environments have accepted team briefings; however healthcare has been slower to follow. While applying briefings in the operating room has shown positive benefits including improved communication and perceptions of teamwork, most research has only focused on feasibility of implementation and not on understanding how the quality of briefings can impact subsequent surgical procedures. Thus, there are no formal protocols or methodologies that have been developed. The goal of this study was to relate specific characteristics of team briefings back to objective measures of team performance. The study employed cognitive interviews, prospective observations, and principle component regression to characterize and model the relationship between team briefing characteristics and non-routine events (NREs) in gynecological surgery. Interviews were conducted with 13 team members representing each role on the surgical team and data were collected for 24 pre-operative team briefings and 45 subsequent surgical cases. The findings revealed that variations within the team briefing are associated with differences in team-related outcomes, namely NREs, during the subsequent surgical procedures. Synthesis of the data highlighted three important trends which include the need to promote team communication during the briefing, the importance of attendance by all surgical team members, and the value of holding a briefing prior to each surgical procedure. These findings have implications for development of formal briefing protocols. Pre-operative team briefings are beneficial for team performance in the operating room. Future research will be needed to continue understanding this relationship between how briefings are conducted and team performance to establish more consistent approaches and as well as for the continuing assessment of team briefings and other similar team-related events in the operating room. / Dissertation/Thesis / Doctoral Dissertation Psychology 2014

This paper examined the probability that the Chinese financial markets have been manipulated prior to the most recent three CPC National Congresses. Based on historical data, it used the Monte Carlo simulation to calculate the probability of the weekly and monthly percentage change of the SSE50 Index and the RMB to USD central parity rate one week and one month prior to the most recent 17th, 18th and 19th CPC National Congress. The results indicate that the weekly and monthly percentage change of both the SSE 50 Index and the RMB to USD central parity rate prior to all three Congresses would be extremely unlikely if both markets have moved in a manner consistent with their previous stochastic movements. It is highly likely that the Chinese financial markets have been manipulated prior to the most recent three CPC National Congress. This study also makes conjectures about manipulators’ motivations behind the market manipulation, assuming the existence of market manipulations.

O uso de equipamentos e materiais na assistência à saúde contribui para a segurança do paciente e para o bom desempenho dos profissionais, porém não se pode desconsiderar o potencial de riscos trazido pela utilização destes e a possibilidade de ocorrências de eventos adversos (EA). O objetivo geral dessa investigação foi analisar o uso de equipamentos e materiais na assistência de enfermagem e sua relação com a ocorrência de EA. Trata-se de um estudo quantitativo, descritivo, com delineamento de pesquisa não-experimental, dividido em três etapas: 1ª) Revisão integrativa da literatura com busca nas bases de dados PubMed, CINAHL e LILACS; 2ª) Consulta às fichas informatizadas de notificação de EA de um hospital privado acreditado, registradas no período de 01/01/2011 a 30/06/2015, com vistas à seleção e análise dos eventos ocasionados pelo uso de equipamentos e materiais; 3ª) Elaboração, validação e aplicação de um instrumento de coleta para investigar os EA relacionados aos equipamentos e materiais e as estratégias utilizadas para propiciar o uso seguro desses dispositivos. Os principais resultados encontrados foram: 1ª) Seleção e análise de sete artigos, agrupados nas categorias: \"Métodos de registro, taxas de ocorrência e tipos de EA\" e \"EA ocorridos no transporte de pacientes críticos\" (ambos relacionados a equipamentos e materiais); 2ª) Constatado a notificação de 1.065 EA, sendo 180 (16,9% do total) relacionados ao uso de equipamentos e materiais na assistência de enfermagem: perda de sonda de alimentação (SNE, SNG, SOG e gastrostomia) (45,0%), perda de cateter venoso central (15,5%), lesão de pele (10,5%), extubação acidental (10,0%), perda de sonda vesical de demora (4,4%), erros de administração de medicamentos (bomba de infusão) (3,9%), perda de dreno (2,8%), tecnovigilância (2,8%), obstrução de cânula de traqueostomia (1,7%), perda de cateter de pressão arterial invasiva (1,7%), quedas (1,1%) e perda de cateter de analgesia (0,5%); 3ª) O instrumento foi elaborado, validado por cinco juízes e aplicado a 22 enfermeiros, apresentando as seguintes respostas: a) sobre o funcionamento inadequado ou o não funcionamento dos equipamentos, os mais citados foram bomba de infusão, cama elétrica, esfigmomanômetro, monitor multiparamêtrico, oxímetro de pulso e ventilador pulmonar mecânico; b) os EA provocados pela utilização inadequada ou incorreta de materiais foram lesão de pele, perda de sonda de alimentação, perda de cateter venoso central, perda de drenos, extubação acidental, perda de cateter de pressão arterial invasiva e perda de cateter de pressão intra-craniana; c) os EA ocorreram durante mudança de decúbito, administração de medicamentos, higiene corporal, transporte intra-hospitalar, atendimento de Urgências/Emergências e troca da fixação de cateteres e sondas; d) as estratégias preventivas prioritárias foram capacitação dos profissionais de enfermagem (na admissão e na aquisição de um novo equipamento ou material), utilização de protocolos assistenciais de enfermagem e manutenção preventiva / teste de qualidade prévio dos dispositivos. A aquisição de aparatos tecnológicos modernos se torna nula se não for acompanhada do investimento em capacitação dos profissionais de enfermagem das instituições de saúde e da preocupação em prevenir e minimizar a ocorrência de EA relacionados ao uso de equipamentos e materiais na assistência ao paciente / The use of equipment and materials in health care contributes to patient safety and to the good performance of professionals, but the potential for risks brought by the use of them and the possibility of adverse event (AE) occurrences cannot be ignored. This study aimed to analyze the use of equipment and materials in nursing care and its relationship to the AE occurrence. This is a quantitative, descriptive, non-experimental research design study, divided into three stages: 1) Integrative review with search in the databases PubMed, CINAHL and LILACS; 2) Consultation in computerized records of AE notification in an accredited private hospital, which were registered from January 1, 2011 to June 30, 2015, in order to select and to analyze events caused by the use of equipment and materials; 3) Development, validation and application of a data collection tool to investigate the AE related to equipment and materials and the strategies used to promote the safe use of these devices. The main results were: 1) Selection and analysis of seven articles, grouped into the following categories: \"Registration methods, occurrence rates and types of AE\" and \"AE occurred in the transport of critically ill patients\" (both related to equipment and materials); 2) After verifying the notification of 1,065 AE, and 180 (16.9% of the total) related to the use of equipment and materials in nursing care: feeding tube loss (SNE, SNG, SOG and gastrostomy) (45,0%), central venous catheter loss (15.5%), skin lesions (10.5%), accidental extubation (10.0%), bladder catheter loss (4.4%), medication administration errors (infusion pump) (3.9%), surgical drain loss (2.8%), technical surveillance (2.8%), tracheostomy tube obstruction (1.7%), invasive arterial pressure catheter loss (1,7%), falls (1.1%) and analgesia catheter loss (0.5%); 3) The instrument was developed, validated by five judges and applied to 22 nurses, with the following answers: a) about the improper functioning or non-functioning of equipment, the most common were infusion pump, electric bed, sphygmomanometer, multiparameter monitor , pulse oximeter and mechanical pulmonary ventilator; b) the AE caused by improper or incorrect use of materials were skin lesions, feeding tube loss, central venous catheters loss, surgical drain loss, accidental extubation, invasive arterial pressure catheter loss and intracranial pressure catheter loss; c) the EA occurred during change of decubitus, medication administration, personal hygiene, intra-hospital transport, Urgency/Emergency care and exchange of fixation of catheters and probes; d) priority preventive strategies were training of nursing professionals (on admission and in the purchase of new equipment or materials), use of nursing care protocols and preventive maintenance/quality prior testing of the devices. The acquisition of modern technological devices becomes invalid if it is not accompanied by investment in training of nursing professionals in health institutions and concerned to prevent and minimize the occurrence of adverse events related to the use of equipment and materials in patient care

Trata-se de um estudo de abordagem quantitativa, descritivo, prospectivo, que teve como objetivos comparar o volume de dieta enteral prescrito com o administrado aos pacientes internados em Unidades de Terapia Intensiva (UTI); comparar as necessidades calóricas diárias (NCD) dos pacientes com as necessidades calóricas prescritas (NCP) e as administradas (NCA); identificar os motivos e os fatores associados a não administração do volume da dieta enteral prescrita aos pacientes. O estudo foi realizado no período de 21 de agosto a 21 de novembro de 2005, em duas UTIs gerais de um hospital privado do Município de São Paulo. A coleta dos dados foi feita diariamente por meio de informações contidas no prontuário e na folha de controle da Unidade. Para a análise dos dados, utilizou-se a estatística descritiva para caracterizar a amostra de pacientes, a dieta enteral e os motivos da não administração do volume prescrito. A comparação das médias do volume prescrito com o administrado, assim como das médias das NCD com as NCP e as NCA foram feitas com o teste t-Student para amostras pareadas. Para as comparações, segundo faixas de volumes e calorias foi utilizado o índice Kappa. Valores de p<0,05 foram considerados estatisticamente significantes. O método de regressão logística aplicado para verificar os fatores associados à não administração da dieta enteral foi o Stepwise forward que incorporou ao modelo as variáveis que apresentaram significância estatística (p<0,05) ou tendência à significância estatística (0,05<p<0.10). A amostra foi constituída por 61 pacientes, sendo realizados 636 acompanhamentos diários da administração da dieta enteral. Do total de pacientes, observou-se que, em algum momento do acompanhamento, 72,1% não receberam o volume prescrito. O tempo decorrido entre a internação na UTI e o início da TNE foi, em média, de 2,5 dias. Das avaliações feitas (n=636), a maioria das dietas (57,6%) eram especializadas e foram administradas por meio de sondas enterais posicionadas no estômago (56,9%). Dos 604 acompanhamentos em que houve prescrição médica de dieta, em 30,2% houve pausa na administração (duração média de 6,1 horas), durante o período programado para a infusão da dieta e em 23,6% a administração foi contínua em razão do uso de bomba de insulina. Constatou-se que, em média, o volume de dieta administrado, 1118,8 ± 400,4 ml, foi menor do que o prescrito, 1257,2 ± 306,9 ml (p=0,000). A análise comparativa das NCD com as NCP e NCA mostrou evidência estatística (p=0,000) que permite afirmar que tanto as NCP como as NCA, foram, em média, menores do que as NCD dos pacientes. NCA (1164,8 ± 508,2) foram menores do que as NCD (1797,1± 292,7calorias) requeridas pelos pacientes. 59,0% dos pacientes conseguiram atingir pelo menos 80,0% das NCD, em média com 4,8 dias de TNE. A comparação dos valores classificados por faixas mostrou moderada concordância entre os volumes prescritos e administrados (Kappa=0,614) e baixa concordância entre as NCD e NCP (Kappa=0,191) e NCD e NCA (Kappa=0,100). De um total de 308 motivos que levaram a não administração do volume prescrito (1,06 motivos por acompanhamento) o cálculo errado da velocidade de infusão pela equipe de enfermagem foi predominante (20,8%), seguido pela realização de exames diagnósticos ou terapêuticos e procedimentos cirúrgicos (14,9%). Do total de motivos, 70,6% eram evitáveis. Os fatores associados a não administração do volume de dieta enteral prescrito foram a idade (diminuição de 7% do risco a cada ano acrescentado à idade), a velocidade de infusão (diminuição de 4% do risco a cada ponto de aumento da velocidade) e necessidade calórica diária (aumento de 0,4% da chance a cada unidade calórica requerida pelo paciente). Os resultados apontam para a necessidade de um maior número de estudos que investiguem os eventos adversos relacionados à administração da dieta enteral com vistas a assegurar o atendimento das reais necessidades nutricionais dos pacientes graves internados na UTI. / It talks about a study of prospective, descriptive and quantitative approach, which has as objectives to compare the volume of enteral diet which was prescribed with the one administrated to the interned patients in the Unit of Intensive Care (UIC); to compare the daily caloric necessities (DCN) of the patients with the prescribed caloric necessities (PCN) and the administrated ones (ACN); to identify the reasons and the factors associated to the absence of the administration of the volume of prescribed enteral diet to the patients. The study took place between 21st of August and 21st of November, 2005 in two general units of intensive care of a private hospital in the city of São Paulo. The data assessment was done on a daily basis through information which was in the prontuary and the papers of control on the Intensive Care. For the data analyses a descriptive statistics was used to distinguish the patients, the enteral diet and the reasons of the absence of administration of the prescribed volume. The comparison of the average of the 2 volumes (prescribed and administrated), as well as the average among the DCN with the PCN and ACN was done with the t-Student test to matched samples. To the comparisons concerning volumes and calories the rate Kappa was used. Values of p<0,05 were considered statistically meaningful. The method of logistic regression applied to check the factors associated with the absence of administration of enteral diet was the Stepwise forward which attached to the model the variables that present statistics significance (p<0,05) or likeliness to statistics significance (0,05<p<0,10). The sample was of 61 patients with 636 daily attendances of the administration of enteral diet. From the total of the patients, it was observed that in a certain moment of the attendance, 72,1% did not receive the prescribed volume. The time between the internment in the UIC and the beginning of the enteral nutritional therapy (ENT) was, on average of 2,5 days. From the evaluations which were done (n=636) the majority of the diets (57,6%) were specialized and were administrated through enteral catheter placed in the stomach (56,9%). From the 604 attendances which had diet medical prescription , in 30,2% there was a pause in the administration (length of 6,1 hours), in the programmed period for the infusion of the diet and in 23,6% the administration was the continuous due to the use of insulin bomb. It was seen that, on average, the volume of the diet which was administrated, 111,8+/- 4000,4 ml, was smaller that the prescribed, 1,257,2+/- 306 ,9 ml (p=0,000). The comparative analyses of the DCN with the PCN and CAN showed statistics evidence (p=0,000) which shows that not only the PCN but also the CAN were, on average, smaller that the DCN of the patients. The ACN (1164,8+/- 508,2) were smaller that the DCN (1797,1 +/- 292,7 calories) required by the patients. 59 ,0% of the patients could reach at least 80,0% of the DCN, on average with the 4,8 days of ENT. The comparison of the values classified by strips showed a moderate concordance between the prescribed and administrated volumes (Kappa=0,614) and low concordance between the DCN and PCN ( Kappa=0,191) and DCN and ACN (Kappa=0,100). From a number of 308 reasons of the absence of the administration of the prescribed volume (1,06 reasons by attendance) the wrong calculation of the speed from the infusion by the nursing team was predominant (20,8%) followed by diagnostic or therapeutic exams and surgical procedures (14,9%). From all reasons, 70,6% were avoidable. The factors associated to the absence of administration of the volume of prescribed enteral diet were the age (decrease of 7% of risk to each year added to the age), the speed of infusion (decrease of 4% of risk to each point of speed increase) and the daily caloric necessity (increase of 0,4% of chance to each required caloric unit by the patient). The results lead to a necessity of more numerous studies that look into adverse events related to the administration of enteral diet to guarantee the real nutritional necessities of serious patients interned in the UIC.

Este estudo objetivou descrever e analisar o processo inclusãoexclusão social na trajetória de vida das pessoas em sofrimento psíquico, na pós-modernidade. A coleta de dados foi realizada no Projeto Tear, que é um projeto de geração de renda em Guarulhos, por meio de entrevistas semi-estruturadas. A História Oral de vida foi usada como referencial metodológico e possibilitou a compreensão das histórias individuais, respeitando suas diferenças e seu caráter histórico. Participaram do estudo sete colaboradores. Os dados foram interpretados, de acordo com a análise de conteúdo. Do discurso dos entrevistados, emergiram quatro categorias que visaram compreender os aspectos do processo inclusão - exclusão social que são: aspectos políticos, relacionais, subjetivos e material. Cada aspecto foi subdividido em processos de exclusão e de inclusão. Estes aspectos foram apresentados separadamente para não excluir as diferentes dimensões, garantindo, assim, a discussão de todas as facetas do fenômeno, porém relacionam-se de forma dialética. Ao final das análises, verificou-se a complexidade da temática, pois a exclusão social não está apenas na segregação física das pessoas mas sim em uma lógica de segregação que ultrapassa os manicômios. Observou-se também que o estigma e o preconceito funcionam como barreiras para a inclusão social. Verificou-se, ainda, que a assistência em saúde mental na perspectiva da Clínica Ampliada é uma potência para a inclusão social das pessoas em sofrimento psíquico, assim, como qualquer intervenção que promova o empoderamento, a cidadania, a autonomia, a criação de possibilidades, a produção de sociabilidades e de subjetividades e a produção de sentido de vida. Apesar das conquistas obtidas pela Reforma Psiquiátrica nas dimensões políticas, assistenciais, socioculturais e epistemológicas, a mudança paradigmática e as novas tecnologias de cuidado ainda estão no começo e devem continuar a surgir para assegurar a inclusão das pessoas em sofrimento psíquico, ampliando, assim, o empoderamento e a cidadania dessas pessoas. / This study had as objective to describe and analyze the process of social inclusion exclusion along the life of people under psychic distress in post modernity. The data collection was carried out at Projeto Tear, which is a project for the generation of income in Guarulhos, through semi-structured interviews. The Oral history of life was used as methodological reference and enabled the comprehension of the individual histories, respecting its differences and its historicalness. Seven contributors participated in the study. The data were interpreted according to the analysis of the contents. From the discourse of the interviewees, four categories that aim to understand the aspects of the process of social inclusion exclusion emerged , such as: political aspects; relational, subjective and material, each aspect was subdivided in processes of exclusion and inclusion. These aspects were presented separately not to exclude the different dimensions to guarantee the discussion of all the facets of the phenomenon, however they relate in a dialectical way. By the end of the analysis, it was verified the complexity of the subject, because the exclusion is not only in physical segregation of people but yet in a logic of segregation that surpass the asylums. It was observed as well that the stigma and the prejudice work as barriers for the social inclusion. It was verified, yet, that the assistance in mental health, by the perspective of Amplified Clinic (Clínica Ampliada), is a power for the social inclusion of people under psychic distress, as well as any kind of intervention that promote the empowerment, the citizenship, autonomy, the creation of possibilities, the production of sociability and subjectivity and the production of meaning in life. Despite the achievements of the Psychiatric Reform in political, assistant, socio-cultural and epistemological dimensions, the paradigmatic changing and the new technologies of nursing are still in the beginning and they must continue arising to assure the inclusion of people under psychic distress, amplifying, this way, the empowerment and the citizenship of these people.

A proposta do trabalho é criar um modelo de simulação híbrida capaz de representar um sistema logístico. Partindo de uma investigação bibliográfica conceitual das metodologias de simulação de eventos discretos e da metodologia de simulação contínua (System Dynamics) capaz de revelar suas características principais e seus potenciais de aplicabilidade, é possível delinear as possibilidades de contribuição de ambas as metodologias para o desenvolvimento de modelos híbridos (metodologias discreta + contínua) de simulação. O modelo híbrido é desenvolvido sob a plataforma AnyLogic, e a integração adequada de ambas as metodologias no modelo criado é capaz de expandir o espectro de compreensão do sistema, com a possibilidade de integração de aspectos físicos e dimensionais a aspectos políticos e comportamentais do sistema em estudo, apresentando-se como ferramenta poderosa para sobrevivência às exigentes demandas concorrenciais. / This study aims at creating a hybrid simulation model able to properly represent a logistics system. Departing from a conceptual literature review about the discrete-event and the continuous (System Dynamics) simulation methodologies able to reveals its main features and potential of applicability, it is possible to define the possibilities of developing hybrid (discrete + continuous) simulation models. The proper integration of both methodologies in a hybrid model allows the expansion of the comprehension spectrum of the system, with the possibility of integrating the physical and dimensional aspects to political and behavior patterns, revealing the hybrid methodology as a powerful tool to succeed in the highly demanding business world.

A dissertação apresenta um estudo das chuvas extremas relacionadas a quatro desastres naturais ocorridos no Brasil: as inundações do Vale do Itajaí SC, em novembro de 2008, a inundação histórica de São Luís do Paraitinga - SP, em janeiro de 2010, as inundações ocorridas no Vale do Mundaú AL, em junho de 2010 e as inundações e escorregamentos da Região Serrana - RJ, em janeiro de 2011. As chuvas catastróficas foram analisadas através de estatísticas básicas dos dados dos pluviômetros localizados nas regiões. No Vale do Itajaí, as chuvas registradas nos dias 23 e 24 de novembro foram elevadas, atingindo valores acima de 250 mm. Na estação Blumenau, choveu 243,5 mm e 250,9 mm nesses. Na estação localizada em São Luís do Paraitinga, choveu apenas 64,7 mm no dia 1 de janeiro de 2010, quando ocorreu a inundação. Porém, foram observados 205,7 mm em uma das estações localizadas em Cunha. Nesse caso, o elevado volume precipitado na cabeceira da bacia deflagrou as inundações observadas nos dois municípios. No Vale do Mundaú e Paraíba, choveu cerca de 200 mm no dia 5 de junho, em duas das seis estações analisadas. O elevado volume precipitado no dia 5, combinado com as chuvas ocorridas no período de 17 a 19, pode ter causado as inundações observadas no dia 19 nessas bacias. Os dados indicaram que, na Região Serrana do RJ, as inundações e escorregamentos foram causados pela chuva extrema ocorrida nos dias 11 e 12 de janeiro de 2011, que ultrapassou 270 mm no intervalo de 24 h em uma das estações. As chuvas acumuladas nos meses que antecedem os eventos e a alta declividade contribuíram para a saturação do solo e posteriores escorregamentos. Os eventos pluviométricos, classificados através do SPI resultaram, na maioria das estações, chuvas severas ou chuvas extremas A vulnerabilidade das regiões, onde inúmeras habitações estão localizadas em áreas de risco, também foi determinante para que os desastres acontecessem. Outros eventos de magnitude elevada foram observados anteriormente, o que indica que estes eventos são característicos das regiões estudadas. Constatou-se que as regiões analisadas estão sujeitas a chuvas extremas com frequência relativamente alta, muito embora tenha sido observado, em alguns casos, certo grau de raridade nesses eventos. Portanto, nessas áreas devem ser adotadas medidas regionais no sentido de disciplinar o uso e ocupação do solo e reduzir os riscos dos desastres. É fundamental buscar medidas de adaptação da ocupação dessas áreas, considerando o regime hidrológico dessas regiões. / The paper presents a study of extreme rainfall related to four natural disasters occurring in Brazil: the floods in Itajaí Valley, state of Santa Catarina, in November, 2008; the historic flood in São Luís do Paraitinga, state of São Paulo, in January, 2010; the floods in Mundaú Valley, state of Alagoas, in June, 2010; and the floods and landslides in the mountainous region of Rio de Janeiro in January, 2011. The catastrophic rains were analyzed through basic statistical data collected from rain gauges located in those regions. In Itajaí Valley, extremely high rainfalls exceeding 250 mm were recorded on November 23 and 24. In Blumenau, it rained 243.5 mm and 250.9 mm on the same days. At the station located in São Luís do Paraitinga, it rained just 64.7 mm on January 1, 2010, when the flood occurred. However, 205.7 mm were observed in one of the stations located in Cunha. In this case, the high volume of rainfall at the headwater of the basin triggered flooding observed in these two cities. In the valleys of Mundaú and Paraíba, it rained nearly 200 mm on June 5, in two of the six stations analyzed. The high volume of rainfall on June 5, combined with the rains from the 17th to the 19th, may have led to the floods in these basins on June 19. The data indicated that, in the mountainous region of Rio de Janeiro, the flooding and landslides were caused by massive rainfall on January 11 and 12, 2011, which exceeded 270 mm within a period of 24 hours in one of the stations. The rainfall accumulated in the months prior to the events and the high sloping land contributed to soil saturation and subsequent landslides. The rainfall events, sorted through the SPI, resulted in severe or extreme rains in most of the stations. The vulnerability of the regions, which include many homes located in hazardous areas, was also crucial for the disasters to happen. Other major events were previously observed, which indicates that these events are characteristic of the studied regions. It was noted that the analyzed regions are subject to extreme rains with a relatively high frequency, although in some cases these events have demonstrated to be somewhat rare. Therefore, in these areas, region-based measures should be adopted with a view to regulating the use and occupation of the soil and reducing risk of disasters. It is essential to seek adaptation measures of occupation of these areas, considering their hydrological regime.

O crescimento desordenado das grandes cidades brasileiras, com a ocupação de várzeas, canalização de córregos e impermeabilização do solo, tem afetado o micro clima urbano, aumentando a incidência de fortes chuvas, que causam desastres, associados à chuvas extremas. Este trabalho apresenta um índice de vulnerabilidade urbana a alagamentos e deslizamentos de terra, em função de eventos extremos de precipitação, como instrumento de gestão urbana a estes desastres. / The unruly growth of large Brazilian cities resulting from the occupation of floodplains, channeling of rivers, and impermeabilization of the soil, has affected the urban microclimate, increasing heavy rains, which cause disasters associated to extreme weather events. This thesis presents a index of urban vulnerability to floods and landslides, according to extreme precipitation events, as an instrument of urban management to these disasters.