This paper tests Reiss' (1991) expectancy theory of fearfulness. Reiss' moderation model of fears speculates that individual differences in fearfulness and phobic avoidance is a function of the interaction between trait vulnerabilities (i.e., sensitivities) and beliefs about potential outcomes during exposure to phobic stimuli (i.e., expectancies). Four hundred and forty-five undergraduates completed questionnaires related to Reiss' fundamental sensitivities (e.g., "anxiety sensitivity"), expectancies (e.g., "expectancy of physical injury or harm") and the intensity of common fears. Informed by findings concerning fear-related outcome expectancies, a system for measuring expectancies was developed for this study called the Focus of Apprehension Survey Schedule (FASS). Additionally, "disgust sensitivity" and "expectancy of contamination or illness" were included to examine whether they account for fearfulness beyond that predicted by Reiss' sensitivities and expectancies alone. In Experiment 1, hierarchical multivariate regression was employed to test Reiss' moderation model of expectancy theory for four fear subtypes (animal, blood/injection/injury (BII), claustrophobic, social). For each of these fear types, results did not support Reiss' moderation model. However, disgust sensitivity improved the prediction of animal fears and contamination expectancies improved the prediction of BII fears beyond Reiss' fundamental sensitivities and expectancies alone. In Experiment 2, a competing mediation model of expectancy theory was tested in which sensitivities were expected to indirectly influence individual differences in fearfulness through outcome expectancies. Results of path analysis using LISREL 8.54 did not support a mediation model per se. However, expectancies were found to mediate relationships between sensitivities and fears in several predicted instances (e.g., contamination expectancies mediated the disgust-BII fears relationship). The results provide some encouraging replications of prior studies and are discussed in the context of implications for theories of fear as well as for future directions in research.

The purpose of this thesis is to introduce theoretical and analytical approaches to mortality convergence and divergence tendencies and assessment of these tendencies in the European area since late 1950s using selected analytical tools. In the considered period fundamental changes in mortality development in Europe were observed. The theoretical part of this study deals with the assumptions of mortality convergence and divergence which are included in significant demographic theories and concepts. In the practical part of this thesis, there are analyzed convergence and divergence tendencies of life expectancy at birth in 28 European countries between the years 1959 and 2009 using selected basic statistical characteristics of variability as well as of indicators that consider state population size. Divergence tendencies of mortality since the 1970s are documented and quantified, the specific development of convergence and divergence from the mortality point of view in post-communist states at the end of the 20th century is observed. Next, possibilities of future convergence of mortality in the Czech Republic to states with more favorable initial mortality conditions on the basis of the development of life expectancy at the exact age of 65 in the period 1990-2009 are evaluated. According to this approach,...

Studies of terrorism have explored a number of factors thought to drive the phenomenon. Authors often tie socioeconomic development to reducing terrorism. Among structural explanations of terrorism, however, authors generally neglect the effect of gender inequality, though studies show that gender inequality increases the risk of international and civil conflict. Therefore I explore the impact of gender inequality in important socioeconomic issues on terrorism for 143 countries from 1998-2009. I argue that socioeconomic gender inequality reflects poor state capacity, resulting in grievances that contribute to domestic non-suicide and suicide terrorism. I study gender inequality in the areas of education, labor participation, and life expectancy. Results indicate that education and life expectancy inequality increase the risk of terrorism, while labor inequality is unrelated. While the time frame and data used in this study limit generalizability, results indicate that states should provide socioeconomic gender parity to reduce the risk of domestic terrorism.

Matematik är ett av grundskolans kärnämnen, och matematiska kunskaper är avgörande för att människan ska klara vardagen i det moderna samhället. Elever är olika motiverade att lära sig matematik, och lärare har olika sätt att arbeta för att motivera dem. Studien syftar till att belysa hur lärare ser på motivation i matematikämnet och vad lärare gör för att motivera sina elever och därigenom få dem att fördjupa ämneskunskaperna. Förväntan-värde-teorin (expectancy-value theory) delar upp motivation i inre värde, nyttovärde, personligt värde och kostnad. Med den teorin som grund har jag med kvalitativ metod intervjuat lärare. Analysen av materialet visar att det är viktigt att läraren har förtroende för eleverna och en realistisk förväntan på vad eleverna redan kan i matematikämnet. Nyttovärdet betonas mest och kopplas ofta till läroplanens syfte med matematikämnet.

Denna studie syftar till att visa hur digitala verktyg används i gymnasiet inommatematikundervisningen, både utav lärare och elever i norra Sverige. Ytterligare undersöksäven elevernas åsikter om dess användning samt om de anser att det underlättar derasinlärningsprocess kring matematik eller inte. Detta har gjorts med hjälp utav en enkätstudie,SAMR-modellen och förväntan-värde teorin. Totalt deltog 102 elever i undersökningen.Resultaten visar att det inte finns några uppenbara för- eller nackdelar när elever använderdigitala hjälpmedel. Elever tycker dock att dess användning är bra inommatematikundervisningen, men främst när läraren använder sig utav det. Läraren använderfrämst digitala verktyg i sina genomgångar och för att visa hur det skall användas, elevernaanvänder det främst när läraren säger till dem att göra det, på prov och för att lösa svårauppgifter som de inte kan lösa med hjälp utav papper och penna ännu. / This study aims to show how digital tools are used in upper secondary school duringmathematics education, both by the teachers and the students in the northern parts of Sweden.Furthermore, student opinions of how these tools are used and whether the students think thisusage makes mathematics easier for them is also studied. This has been done through a surveythat makes use of a questionnaire together with the SAMR-model and the expectancy-valuetheorem. A total of 102 students took part in this study. The results show that there are noobvious benefits or disadvantages when the students themselves make use of digital aids.However, the students think that the use of digital tools are good in mathematics, but thebenefits mostly come from the teachers use of it. This study shows that the teachers mostlyuse these tools during their lectures or to show how it’s used. The students mostly use it whenthey’re told to by the teacher, during exams or to solve difficult assignments/problems thatthey haven’t learned to solve with pen and paper yet.

O enfrentamento do processo do adoecer é mais adequado quando os pacientes possuem esperança. É a esperança na recuperação da saúde que leva o paciente a enfrentar todas as adversidades decorrentes do adoecimento e do tratamento. A avaliação da esperança proporciona a implementação de intervenções que estimulam esperança em pacientes em cuidados paliativos e seus familiares. Diante da inexistência de um instrumento validado no Brasil para medir esse construto, optou-se pela realização da adaptação e validação do Herth Hope Index. Era também nossa intenção comparar o sentimento de esperança entre pessoas sadias, doentes com câncer e de doentes com outra doença crônica com características diferentes, como o diabetes. O estudo teve como objetivos fazer a adaptação cultural e a validação do instrumento Herth Hope Index, comparar os escores de esperança entre pacientes oncológicos, diabéticos e acompanhantes, analisar as relações entre o nível de esperança da amostra com as variáveis sócio-demográficas e analisar as relações entre o nível de esperança nos dois grupos de pacientes com variáveis clínicas de interesse. A adaptação cultural e validação do Hert Hope Index foram realizadas conforme o método preconizado pela literatura. A amostra foi composta por 131 indivíduos, divididos em 3 grupos. Os resultados obtidos demonstram que em relação às propriedades psicométricas, o instrumento apresentou um valor de alpha de Cronbach de 0.834 para a escala total. O teste-reteste conferiu a reprodutibilidade do instrumento. A validade de construto foi confirmada por meio da validade convergente que demonstrou correlação estatisticamente significativa entre a Escala de Esperança de Herth (denominação da versão brasileira) e a Escala de Auto-Estima de Rosenberg, e da validade divergente que também evidenciou correlação significante entre a Escala de Esperança de Herth e o Inventário de Depressão de Beck. A análise fatorial pelo método dos componentes principais não confirmou os três fatores da escala original confirmou apenas que existem três fatores, mas com composição diferente dos itens em relação à escala original. O nível de esperança nos três grupos foi elevado e não houve diferença estatística entre eles. A comparação entre o nível de esperança e as variáveis sócio-demográficas na amostra estudada não apresentou diferença estatisticamente significativa. O nível de esperança não foi relacionado com a dor e tipo de tumor nos pacientes oncológicos e nem com o tratamento ou coexistência de hipertensão arterial nos diabéticos. As propriedades psicométricas do instrumento foram demonstradas e, portanto ele pode ser utilizado para mensurar a esperança na população brasileira. Considera-se importante que a Escala de Esperança de Herth continue a ser testada quanto à sua confiabilidade e validade em diferentes contextos sócio-culturais da realidade brasileira / Facing the process of being sick is more properly done when patients have hope.It\'s the hope of recovering that makes the patient able to face all the difficulties caused by the disease and its treatment. The evaluation of hope makes possible to implement actions which stimulate hope in patients under palliative care and the people who take care of them, specially their relatives. Once in Brazil there is no validated instrument for measure this, the option was to adapt and validate the Herth Hope Index. Our intention was also to compare the feeling of hope of healthy persons, cancer patients and patients with other kinds of chronic disease, with different features, such as diabetes.This study aimed the cultural adaptation and validation of the Herth Hope Index, to compare the hope scores of oncology and diabetic patients and their family, to analyze the relation between their level of hope and social-demographic factors, and to analyze the relation between the level of hope of these two groups of patients and the relevant clinical variables.Cultural adaptation and validation of the Herth Hope Index were done according to the methods already described in literature. There were 131 patients, divided into 3 groups. The result shows that, concerning to psychometric properties, this instrument has presented alpha coefficient of 0.834 for total scale. The test-retest awarded the reliability of the instrument. The construct validity was confirmed by means of the convergent validity that significant correlation between Herth Hope Index (Brazilian version) demonstrated significant correlation with Rosenberg’s Self Steem Scale, and the divergent validity that also significant correlation between Herth Hope Index and the Beck Depression Inventory. The factorial analyses, by the main components method, has not confirmed the three factors of the original scale. It has confirmed only that there are three factors, but there is a different composition among the items of the original scale. The level of hope in these three groups was elevated and there was no statistical difference among them. Comparison between the level of hope and the social-demographical variables hasn\'t shown any statistically significant differences. The level of hope hasn\'t been related to pain and kind of tumor in oncology patients neither to treatment or coexistence of arterial hypertension in diabetic patients either. The psychometrics properties of this tool were demonstrated, it can be used in the evaluation of hope of the Brazilian people. It\'s important that the Herth Hope Index keeps been tested, specially regarding it\'s reliability and validity in different socio-cultural aspects of the Brazilian context

Data quality issues at advanced old age, such as incompleteness of registration of vital events and age misreporting, compromise estimates of the death rates and remaining life expectancy at those ages. Following up on Horiuchi and Coale (Population Studies 36: 317-326, 1982), Mitra (Population Studies 38: 313-319, 1984, Population Studies 39: 511-512, 1985), and Coale (Population Studies 39: 507-509, 1985), we examine the conventional approaches to constructing life tables from data deficient at advanced ages and the two adjustment methods by the mentioned authors. Contrary to earlier reports by Horiuchi, Coale, and Mitra, we show that the two methods are consistent and useful in drastically reducing the estimation errors in life expectancy as compared to the conventional approaches, i.e., the classical open age interval model and extrapolation of the death rates. Our results suggest complementing the classical estimates of life expectancy by adjustments using Horiuchi- Coale, Mitra, or other appropriate methods and avoiding the extrapolation method as a tool for estimating the life expectancy.

Modelos preditivos estimam o risco de eventos ou agravos relacionados à saúde e podem ser utilizados como ferramenta auxiliar em tomadas de decisão por gestores e profissionais de saúde. Algoritmos de machine learning (ML), por sua vez, apresentam potencial para identificar relações complexas e não-lineares presentes nos dados, com consequências positivas na performance preditiva desses modelos. A presente pesquisa objetivou aplicar técnicas supervisionadas de ML e comparar sua performance em problemas de classificação e de regressão para predizer respostas de interesse para a saúde pública e a medicina. Os resultados e discussão estão organizados em três artigos científicos. O primeiro apresenta um tutorial para o uso de ML em pesquisas de saúde, utilizando como exemplo a predição do risco de óbito em até 5 anos (frequência do desfecho 15%; n=395) para idosos do estudo \"Saúde, Bem-estar e Envelhecimento\" (n=2.677), segundo variáveis relacionadas ao seu perfil demográfico, socioeconômico e de saúde. Na etapa de aprendizado, cinco algoritmos foram aplicados: regressão logística com e sem penalização, redes neurais, gradient boosted trees e random forest, cujos hiperparâmetros foram otimizados por validação cruzada (VC) 10-fold. Todos os modelos apresentaram área abaixo da curva (AUC) ROC (Receiver Operating Characteristic) maior que 0,70. Para aqueles com maior AUC ROC (redes neurais e regressão logística com e sem penalização) medidas de qualidade da probabilidade predita foram avaliadas e evidenciaram baixa calibração. O segundo artigo objetivou predizer o risco de tempo de vida ajustado pela qualidade de vida de até 30 dias (frequência do desfecho 44,7%; n=347) em pacientes com câncer admitidos em Unidade de Terapia Intensiva (UTI) (n=777), mediante características obtidas na admissão do paciente à UTI. Seis algoritmos (regressão logística com e sem penalização, redes neurais, árvore simples, gradient boosted trees e random forest) foram utilizados em conjunto com VC aninhada para estimar hiperparâmetros e avaliar performance preditiva. Todos os algoritmos, exceto a árvore simples, apresentaram discriminação (AUC ROC > 0,80) e calibração satisfatórias. Para o terceiro artigo, características socioeconômicas e demográficas foram utilizadas para predizer a expectativa de vida ao nascer de municípios brasileiros com mais de 10.000 habitantes (n=3.052). Para o ajuste do modelo preditivo, empregou-se VC aninhada e o algoritmo Super Learner (SL), e para a avaliação de performance, o erro quadrático médio (EQM). O SL apresentou desempenho satisfatório (EQM=0,17) e seu vetor de valores preditos foi utilizado para a identificação de overachievers (municípios com expectativa de vida superior à predita) e underachievers (município com expectativa de vida inferior à predita), para os quais características de saúde foram comparadas, revelando melhor desempenho em indicadores de atenção primária para os overachievers e em indicadores de atenção secundária para os underachievers. Técnicas para a construção e avaliação de modelos preditivos estão em constante evolução e há poucas justificativas teóricas para se preferir um algoritmo em lugar de outro. Na presente tese, não foram observadas diferenças substanciais no desempenho preditivo dos algoritmos aplicados aos problemas de classificação e de regressão analisados. Espera-se que a maior disponibilidade de dados estimule a utilização de algoritmos de ML mais flexíveis em pesquisas de saúde futuras. / Predictive models estimate the risk of health-related events or injuries and can be used as an auxiliary tool in decision-making by public health officials and health care professionals. Machine learning (ML) algorithms have the potential to identify complex and non-linear relationships, with positive implications in the predictive performance of these models. The present research aimed to apply various ML supervised techniques and compare their performance in classification and regression problems to predict outcomes of interest to public health and medicine. Results and discussion are organized into three articles. The first, presents a tutorial for the use of ML in health research, using as an example the prediction of death up to 5 years (outcome frequency=15%; n=395) in elderly participants of the study \"Saúde, Bemestar e Envelhecimento\" (n=2,677), using variables related to demographic, socioeconomic and health characteristics. In the learning step, five algorithms were applied: logistic regression with and without regularization, neural networks, gradient boosted trees and random forest, whose hyperparameters were optimized by 10-fold cross-validation (CV). The area under receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve was greater than 0.70 for all models. For those with higher AUROC (neural networks and logistic regression with and without regularization), the quality of the predicted probability was evaluated and it showed low calibration. The second article aimed to predict the risk of quality-adjusted life up to 30 days (outcome frequency=44.7%; n=347) in oncologic patients admitted to the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) (n=777), using patients\' characteristics obtained at ICU admission. Six algorithms (logistic regression with and without regularization, neural networks, basic decision trees, gradient boosted trees and random forest) were used with nested CV to estimate hyperparameters values and to evaluate predictive performance. All algorithms, with exception of basic decision trees, presented acceptable discrimination (AUROC > 0.80) and calibration. For the third article, socioeconomic and demographic characteristics were used to predict the life expectancy at birth of Brazilian municipalities with more than 10,000 inhabitants (n=3,052). Nested CV and the Super Learner (SL) algorithm were used to adjust the predictive model, and for evaluating performance, the mean squared error (MSE). The SL showed good performance (MSE=0.17) and its vector of predicted values was used for the identification of underachievers and overachievers (i.e. municipalities showing worse and better outcome than predicted, respectively). Health characteristics were analyzed revealing that overachievers performed better on primary health care indicators, while underachievers fared better on secondary health care indicators. Techniques for constructing and evaluating predictive models are constantly evolving and there is scarce theoretical justification for preferring one algorithm over another. In this thesis no substantial differences were observed in the predictive performance of the algorithms applied to the classification and regression problems analyzed herein. It is expected that increase in data availability will encourage the use of more flexible ML algorithms in future health research.

Introdução: Embora o IBGE mostre que a esperança de vida tenha crescido 32,4% entre 1960 a 2006, a violência aumentou muito a sobremortalidade masculina no Estado de São Paulo. No município de São Paulo, no período de 1960 a 1995, o coeficiente de homicídios para adolescentes, do sexo masculino, na faixa de 15- 19 anos, passou de 9,6 para 186,7 por 100 mil habitantes. Avaliação mais recente, cobrindo o período de 1960 a 1999, mostra que cerca de 50% das mortes causadas por homicídios estavam concentradas nas faixas etárias abaixo de 30 anos, predominantemente em pessoas do sexo masculino, de baixa escolaridade e negros. Os negros estão sobre-representados nas camadas pobres, de baixa escolaridade, no trabalho infantil, no trabalho informal, nos empregos domésticos. O objetivo: desse estudo é verificar se há associação entre causa básica de óbito e raça/cor entre adolescentes e jovens adultos, na Região Metropolitana de São Paulo, no período de 2000 a 2006. Metodologia: Os dados são coletados do Sistema de Informação de Mortalidade (SIM) do Ministério da Saúde e o período de estudo compreenderá os anos de 2000 a 2006. A análise foi conduzida por análise de resíduos em tabela de contingências e análise de correspondência para as categorias de raça/cor branca, preta, parda e outras. Resultados: Foram analisados 68.242 óbitos distribuídos pelas causas básicas e raça/cor, sendo a categoria branca com 57,49% (39.231 casos), categoria preta com 8,43% (5.754 casos), categoria parda com 33,47% (22.841 casos) e a categoria outras com 0,61% (416 casos). Na categoria raça/cor outras estão incluso a raça/cor amarelo e a raça/cor indígena. A análise de correspondência das variações causa de óbito por raça/cor reúne informações importantes e relevantes, não aparente na análise de resíduos que examina relações par a par. Pretos e pardos são distintos, e devem permanecer separados mesmo que dividam um perfil semelhante de óbito, as causas externas que tem discrepância na intensidade com que os afeta . Já brancos e outros poderiam ser agrupados. Conclusões: As políticas públicas nessa área precisam ser articuladas entre intersecretarias (Secretaria de Estado da Educação, Secretaria de Estado da Saúde, Secretaria de Emprego e Relações do Trabalho, Secretaria de Estado da Cultura, Secretaria de Esporte, Lazer e Turismo e Secretaria de Segurança Pública) e com a participação dos diversos segmentos da população. Buscando não só as ações afirmativas, mas buscando uma solução dos homicídios nessa faixa etária. Voltadas principalmente para atenção aos adolescentes e jovens adultos em situação de vulnerabilidade, onde nesse caso encontram-se os adolescentes e jovens adultos pardos e adolescentes e jovens adultos pretos, pois a morte violenta é coisa dos negros. / Introduction: Even though IBGE (Brazilian Institute for Geography and Statistics) demonstrates that life expectancy has increased by 32,4% during the period comprised between 1960 to 2006, violence has increased male over mortality in the State of São Paulo. In the city of São Paulo, during the period comprised between 1960 to 1995, the coefficient of homicides for male adolescents, in the age bracket comprised between 15 to 19 years of age, has risen from 9,6 to 186,7 per 100 thousand inhabitants. A recent evaluation, comprising the period between 1960 to 1999, shows that circa 50% of the deaths caused by homicides were concentrated in the age brackets under 30 years of age, predominating in males of low schooling and negroes. Negroes are over represented in the poorer strata, of low schooling, in childrens work, in informal jobs and in domestic jobs. The objective of this paper is to verify if there is an association between basic death causes and race/color among adolescents and young adults in the Metropolitan Region of São Paulo, during the period comprised between 2000 and 2006. Methodology: Data were collected from the Information Mortality System (SIM) from the Ministry of Health of Brazil and the period under study comprises the years 2000 to 2006. Analysis was performed by residual analysis in a contingency table and correspondence analysis for the categories race/color white, negro, brown and others. Results: Analysis comprised 68.242 deaths distributed by basic death causes and race/color, being whites 57,49% of the total (39.231 cases), negroes representing 8,43% of the total (5.754 cases), browns amounting to 33,47% of the total (22.841 cases) and the category others being 0,61% (416 cases). In the category race/color others are included Orientals and Indians. Correspondence analysis of the variations of death causes per race/color includes important and relevant information, that is not apparent in the analysis of the residues that examines relationships by pairs. Negroes and browns are distinct and must remain separated even though they share a similar death profile, external death causes have a discrepancy in the intensity in which they are affected. Whites and others can be grouped. Conclusions: Public policies in this area must be articulated between different State secretaries (Education; Health; Employment and Job Relationships; Culture, Sports, Leisure and Tourism and Public Safety) and also must include the participation of diverse population segments. Policies must also try to achieve not only affirmative actions, but also a solution for homicides in these age brackets, and must be directed, especially, to the attention regarding adolescents and young adults, in vulnerable situation, a condition in which negroes and brown adolescents and young adults are inserted, since violent death is their thing.

Motivationsteori avser att förklara hur individer motiveras på sin arbetsplats. I den omfattande forskningen på området delas motivation ofta in i yttre och inre motivation. Yttre motivation förklarar beteenden som drivs av yttre faktorer såsom lön eller befordran, medan inre motivation förklarar beteenden som styrs av en individs egen vilja eller driv. I denna studie har vi valt att undersöka om det finns skillnader i upplevd motivation mellan individer på två olika hierarkiska nivåer inom en organisation. Inre och yttre motivationsfaktorer användes för att kartlägga individernas upplevda motivation. Undersökningen genomfördes genom intervjuer med chefer och anställda på Uppsala Vatten och Avfall. Resultatet är att man på en lägre hierarkisk nivå blir mer motiverad av lön och att man på en högre hierarkisk nivå motiverades mer av att nå en maktställning. Några skillnader baserat på inre motivationsfaktorer mellan grupperna kunde inte påvisas i denna studie.