Thesis (MSc)--Stellenbosch University, 2015. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT : The standard-Heath–Jarrow–Morton (HJM) framework is well-known for its application to pricing and hedging interest rate derivatives. This study implemented the extended HJM framework introduced by Eberlein and Raible (1999), in which a Brownian motion (BM) is replaced by a wide class of processes with jumps. In particular, the HJM driven by the generalised hyperbolic processes was studied. This approach was motivated by empirical evidence proving that models driven by a Brownian motion have several shortcomings, such as inability to incorporate jumps and leptokurticity into the price dynamics. Non-homogeneous Lévy processes and the change of measure techniques necessary for simplification and derivation of pricing formulae were also investigated. For robustness in numerical valuation, several transform methods were investigated and compared in terms of speed and accuracy. The models were calibrated to liquid South African data (ATM) interest rate caps using two methods of optimisation, namely the simulated annealing and secant-Levenberg–Marquardt methods. Two numerical valuation approaches had been implemented in this study, the COS method and the fractional fast Fourier transform (FrFT), and were compared to the existing methods in the context. Our numerical results showed that these two methods are quite efficient and very competitive. We have chose the COS method for calibration due to its rapidly speed and we have suggested a suitable approach for truncating the integration range to address the problems it has with short-maturity options. Our calibration results provided a nearly perfect fit, such that it was difficult to decide which model has a better fit to the current market state. Finally, all the implementations were done in MATLAB and the codes included in appendices. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING : Die standaard-Heath–Jarrow–Morton-raamwerk (kortom die HJM-raamwerk) is daarvoor bekend dat dit op die prysbepaling en verskansing van afgeleide finansiële instrumente vir rentekoerse toegepas kan word. Hierdie studie het die uitgebreide HJM-raamwerk geïmplementeer wat deur Eberlein en Raible (1999) bekendgestel is en waarin ’n Brown-beweging deur ’n breë klas prosesse met spronge vervang word. In die besonder is die HJM wat deur veralgemeende hiperboliese prosesse gedryf word ondersoek. Hierdie benadering is gemotiveer deur empiriese bewyse dat modelle wat deur ’n Brown-beweging gedryf word verskeie tekortkominge het, soos die onvermoë om spronge en leptokurtose in prysdinamika te inkorporeer. Nie-homogene Lévy-prosesse en die maatveranderingstegnieke wat vir die vereenvoudiging en afleiding van prysbepalingsformules nodig is, is ook ondersoek. Vir robuustheid in numeriese waardasie is verskeie transformmetodes ondersoek en ten opsigte van spoed en akkuraatheid vergelyk. Die modelle is vir likiede Suid-Afrikaanse data vir boperke van rentekoerse sonder intrinsieke waarde gekalibreer deur twee optimiseringsmetodes te gebruik, naamlik die gesimuleerde uitgloeimetode en die sekans-Levenberg–Marquardt-metode. Twee benaderings tot numeriese waardasie is in hierdie studie gebruik, naamlik die kosinusmetode en die fraksionele vinnige Fourier-transform, en met bestaande metodes in die konteks vergelyk. Die numeriese resultate het getoon dat hierdie twee metodes redelik doeltreffend en uiters mededingend is. Ons het op grond van die motiveringspoed van die kosinus-metode daardie metode vir kalibrering gekies en ’n geskikte benadering tot die trunkering van die integrasiereeks voorgestel ten einde die probleem ten opsigte van opsies met kort uitkeringstermyne op te los. Die kalibreringsresultate het ’n byna perfekte passing gelewer, sodat dit moeilik was om te besluit watter model die huidige marksituasie die beste pas. Ten slotte is alle implementerings in MATLAB gedoen en die kodes in bylaes ingesluit.

The aim of this thesis is to summarize all the possible obligations from the social security system for which a person with a long-term unfavourable heath condition is entitled, simultaneously taking the perspective of palliative care into focus. In the introductory chapters this issue is set into the domestic and international legislative frame. Obligations within particular subsystems of social security are described in chapter four, five and six. The last chapter is focused on palliative care. In the first chapter the term social security is investigated and basic terminology taken from Czech legislation related to this topic is defined. The second chapter offers an overview of the historical development of social care and of rights of persons with disabilities. In the third chapter influence of significant international organizations on the issue of social security is reviewed. Chapter four deals with the system of sickness insurance. In its six subchapters the thesis provides a general characterization of sickness insurance, sickness insurance participation, sickness benefits entitlement, reimbursement, support period, the amount of sickness benefits and work capacity assessment. Chapter five defines pension insurance, pension insurance participation, entitlement and reimbursement, the amount...

<p>Protecting public health is the most legitimate use of zoning, and yet there is minimal progress in applying it to the obesity problem. Zoning could potentially be used to address both unhealthy and healthy food retailers, but lack of evidence regarding the impact of zoning and public opinion on zoning changes are barriers to implementing zoning restrictions on fast food on a larger scale. My dissertation addresses these gaps in our understanding of health zoning as a policy option for altering built, food environments. </p><p>Chapter 1 examines the relationship between food swamps and obesity and whether spatial mapping might be useful in identifying priority geographic areas for zoning interventions. I employ an instrumental variables (IV) strategy to correct for the endogeneity problems associated with food environments, namely that individuals may self-select into certain neighborhoods and may consider food availability in their decision process. I utilize highway exits as a source of exogenous variation .Using secondary data from the USDA Food Environment Atlas, ordinary least squares (OLS) and IV regression models were employed to analyze cross-sectional associations between local food environments and the prevalence of obesity. I find even after controlling for food desert effects, food swamps have a positive, statistically significant effect on adult obesity rates.</p><p>Chapter 2 applies theories of message framing and prospect theory to the emerging discussion around health zoning policies targeting food environments and to explore public opinion toward a list of potential zoning restrictions on fast-food restaurants (beyond moratoriums on new establishments). In order to explore causality, I employ an online survey experiment manipulating exposure to vignettes with different message frames about health zoning restrictions with two national samples of adult Americans age 18 and over (N1=2,768 and N2=3,236). The second sample oversamples Black Americans (N=1,000) and individuals with high school as their highest level of education. Respondents were randomly assigned to one of six conditions where they were primed with different message frames about the benefits of zoning restrictions on fast food retailers. Participants were then asked to indicate their support for six zoning policies on a Likert scale. Subjects also answered questions about their food store access, eating behaviors, health status and perceptions of food stores by type. </p><p>I find that a message frame about Nutrition and increasing Equity in the food system was particularly effective at increasing support for health zoning policies targeting fast food outlets across policy categories (Conditional, Youth-related, Performance and Incentive) and across racial groups. This finding is consistent with an influential environmental justice scholar’s description of “injustice frames” as effective in mobilizing supporters around environmental issues (Taylor 2000). I extend this rationale to food environment obesity prevention efforts and identify Nutrition combined with Equity frames as an arguably universal campaign strategy for bolstering public support of zoning restrictions on fast food retailers.</p><p>Bridging my findings from both Chapters 1 and 2, using food swamps as a spatial metaphor may work to identify priority areas for policy intervention, but only if there is an equitable distribution of resources and mobilization efforts to improve consumer food environments. If the structural forces which ration access to land-use planning persist (arguably including the media as gatekeepers to information and producers of message frames) disparities in obesity are likely to widen.</p> / Dissertation

The relationship between Public Administration and the people is one that requires legitimacy and compromise in order to solve complex problems. Individuals with intellectual and developmental disabilities (IDD) and their families during the last fifty years have put forth an agenda that calls for the advancement of rights for the disabled and more integration into the larger society. In this arena, government, with post civil rights legislation like the 1990 Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA), plays a huge role in promoting social awareness and bringing down barriers of stigmatization, understanding, and access. This struggle is fought on many fronts. A significant part of the effort focuses on moving the locus of long-term care of the disabled, including the IDD population, from an institutional setting to the least restrictive setting that will foster social ties and integration. Since the early 1980s as part of this effort to deinstitutionalize the disabled, legislation at both the federal and state level has supported and incentivized the creation of Home and Community Based Service (HCBS) programs. HCBS waivers, as they are typically called, are also promoted as a means of containing government expenditures for long-term care. However, the effectiveness of these waivers is poorly understood. The critical questions being - Do HCBS waivers promote and create an environment that increases awareness of the needs of IDD individuals? Do the programs help reduce stigmatization, promote understanding, and increase access to services and activities that foster social interaction? Or, do HCBS waivers create a new "iron cage" where the intellectually or developmentally disabled are once again relegated to existing as second class citizens? In this research, programs are mapped and then evaluated to paint a better picture of how HCBS waivers change long-term care. / This research combines qualitative and quantitative approaches to triangulate on these phenoamea as a means to investigate when and how HCBS waiver programs facilitate, promote, or stifle the social integration of those with IDD. How does social integration manifest itself in the quality long-term care of those who often cannot take care of themselves? / by Enrique M. Perez. / Thesis (Ph.D.)--Florida Atlantic University, 2011. / Includes bibliography. / Electronic reproduction. Boca Raton, Fla., 2011. Mode of access: World Wide Web.

Instituído pela Constituição de 1988, o Sistema Único de Saúde (SUS) tem na descentralização um de seus princípios, o qual, através das Normas Operacionais Básicas (NOB) tem sido, junto com o controle social, um dos elementos de sustentação deste Sistema. Objetivando avaliar a descentralização da assistência à saúde e suas repercussões nos Sistemas Municipais de Saúde, foi estudada uma amostra de 16 municípios mato-grossenses, selecionados segundo porte, nível sócio sanitário e habilitação às NOB. Numa primeira etapa, a descentralização foi avaliada a partir dos dados quantitativos de financiamento, estrutura, produção e resolutividade dos serviços. Na segunda etapa, numa abordagem qualitativa, foram conduzidos 4 estudos de caso, que com base em análise documental e entrevistas, buscaram avaliar a descentralização sob o ponto de vista dos Conselhos Municipais de Saúde e dos conselheiros. Os dados quantitativos mostraram que a descentralização teve impactos positivos, expressos em: maior aporte de recursos financeiros, melhor organização das secretarias e aumento da produção e da resolutividade de vários serviços, os quais resultaram em melhoria da situação sanitária dos municípios estudados. Os dados qualitativos apontaram o fortalecimento dos Conselhos Municipais de Saúde como instância co-gestora e de controle social do SUS em nível local. Observou-se também que em Cuiabá e nos municípios maiores, está se desenvolvendo um modelo de atenção que prioriza a assistência médica, individualizada, com grande uso e dependência de tecnologia, que começa a comprometer a provisão e o financiamento da atenção primária. A reprodução desse modelo pode significar a inviabilidade financeira do SUS. / The Brazilian Health System (SUS), created by the Constitution of 1988, established decentralization as one of its principles. This has been, through the Basic Operational Norms (NOB), one of the sustentation elements of this System, along with social control. With the objective of evaluating health care decentralization and its impact on the Municipal Health System, a sample of 16 of Mato Grosso State’s municipalities was studied, selected according to their population, socio-sanitary level and habilitation according to the NOB. Initially, the decentralization process was evaluated through the quantitative data of health services funding, production, structure and resolutivity. Second, utilizing a qualitive approach, four case studies were carried out, based on documents and interviews, seeking to evaluate the decentralization from the perspective of the Municipal Health Council and its councilors. The quantitative data demonstrated positive impacts of decentralization, such as the increase in financial health resouces, the improvement in departmental organization, and the rise in health services production and resolutivity, all of which resulted in the improvement of those municipalities’ health situation. The qualitative data showed the strengthening of the Municipal Health Council as the institution of co-administration and social control of the SUS at the local level. In Cuiabá and in other large cities, there was evidence of the development of a health care model that prioritizes medical care, individually, with great use of and dependence on technology, which begins to compromise primary health care supply and funding. The reproduction of this model may have important implications in SUS financial feasibility.

Este estudo trata da avaliação de um Centro de Atenção Psicossocial (CAPS), um serviço supostamente funcionando nos moldes apregoados pela Reforma Psiquiátrica Brasileira, a qual, atualmente, na sua vertente assistencial, é marcada pela implantação de serviços substitutivos ao hospital psiquiátrico. A proposta da avaliação centra-se no microespaço e no cotidiano do serviço e ocorre mediante a participação da equipe, usuários e familiares. Trata-se de uma avaliação qualitativa, mediante a qual se busca apreender a dinâmica do serviço, a forma como os atores interagem e os sentidos que constroem em relação à própria prática; uma avaliação que também possa ser dispositivo, permitindo, mediante um processo participativo, que grupos de interesse ampliem a possibilidade de intervir na realidade do serviço, e que possam ser sujeitos, uma vez que em metodologias tradicionais estão excluídos. A Avaliação de Quarta Geração, desenvolvida por Egon G. Guba e Yvona S Lincoln juntamente com o Método Paidéia, desenvolvido por Gastão Wagner de Sousa Campos, foram norteadores do processo teórico-metodológico da pesquisa. Os instrumentos de coleta de dados foram entrevistas com equipe, usuários e familiares e observação. As questões que emergiram no processo avaliativo foram agrupadas em três núcleos temáticos: dimensões do objeto de trabalho, equipe, práticas e os meios de trabalho. Foi constatado que, mesmo que o serviço pareça ser um substitutivo para o atendimento no hospital psiquiátrico, tanto fatores externos, relacionados às políticas locais de saúde mental, quanto fatores internos, relacionados ao cotidiano do serviço, impedem que isso se efetive. / This study is about the evaluation of a Center of Psychosocial Care (CAPS), a service supposed to work according to the patterns divulged by the Brazilian Psychiatric Reform which, currently, in its assistance trend, is marked by the implantation of services intended to replace the psychiatric hospital. The evaluation proposal is centered in the micro space and in the day-to-day of the service and is performed by means of the participation of the team, the users and family members. It is about a qualitative evaluation, by means of which one searches to grasp the dynamics of the service, the way how the actors interact and the directions that they construct in relation to the practice itself; an evaluation that can also device, allowing, by means of a participation process, that interest groups broaden the possibility of intervening in the reality of the service and that they may become subjects, considering that in traditional methodologies, they are excluded. The Evaluation of Fourth Generation, developed by Egon G. Guba and Yvona S. Lincoln, together with the Paidéia Method, developed by Gastão Wagner de Sousa Campos, guided the theoretical-methodological process of the research. The instruments for the collection of data were interviews with the team, users and family members as well as observation. The issues that emerged over the evaluation process were grouped in three central themes: dimensions of the work object, the team, practices and the working means. It has been noticed that, even though the service seems to be a replacement for the attendance in the psychiatric hospital, both external factors, related to the local policies of mental health, and internal factors, related to the day-to-day of the service, prevents it from becoming effective.

Os movimentos negros brasileiros aparecem como principais protagonistas intelectuais e militantes do antirracismo no Brasil e por intermédio das múltiplas modalidades de protesto mobilizam a implantação de políticas públicas para a população negra. O não acesso aos bens comuns da sociedade e aos direitos fundamentais, como no caso da saúde, demanda a criação de medidas para superação das dificuldades de acesso a estes serviços por grande parte da população brasileira. Entre os determinantes sociais encontra-se o racismo e o machismo que expõe as mulheres negras a fatores de risco em saúde e determina suas condições de vida, saúde e adoecimento. O presente estudo traz uma reflexão sobre os sentidos atribuídos ao acesso da mulher negra à saúde pública por mulheres negras militantes em movimentos negros da cidade de São Paulo. Tratam-se de movimentos importantes na luta pela inclusão da mulher negra e atenção as suas especificidades em saúde, bem como na elaboração, implantação e implementação da Política Nacional de Saúde Integral da População Negra. As ações políticas dos movimentos negros foram abordadas também em sua dimensão simbólica cujo campo discursivo se move em contraposição à naturalização das desigualdades raciais, mas em favor do acesso aos direitos, denunciando as injustiças sociais intensificadas para a população negra pelo racismo. Abordamos também seu movimento no sentido de dar à negras e negros o direito de contarem sua própria história , a construir uma memória e identidade coletivas que se contrapunha à imagem marginalizada e inferiorizada instituída historicamente no imaginário social brasileiro / The Brazilian black movements have emerged as the principle intellectual and activist protagonist against racism in Brazil. Through multiple points of protests they have been initiating the implementation of public polices for the black population. The inaccessibility to the common goods of society and the limited access to fundamental rights, as in the case of health, has requires the creation of polices to overcome the difficulties that a huge part of the Brazilian population has in accessing health services. Among other social determinants, racism and sexism significantly impacts the quality of life, health and illnesses facing black women. This study is an analysis of what black militants from black movements in São Paulo City believe limits black women\'s access to the public health system. This is important as central to black movements struggles for the inclusion of black women into Brazilian society is their focus on black women\'s health, as well as, the elaborations and implementation of the Política Nacional de Saúde Integral da População Negra (National Policy of the Black Population\'s Integrated Health). The black movement\'s political actions are also analyzed on its symbolic dimension in which the discursive field moves against the naturalization of racial inequalities and in favor of accessing rights, and denouncing the social injustice which is intensified for black population by racism. These women also focus on the right to tell their history in order to build a memory and collective identity in contrast to the marginalizes one historically constituted in the Brazilian social imaginary

Introdução: A transformação dos perfis demográficos, epidemiológicos e as possibilidades da assistência têm feito dos Cuidados Paliativos um eixo importante para a reorganização dos serviços e sistemas de saúde, a fim de promover tanto quanto possível e até o fim da vida o bem estar e a qualidade de vida das pessoas. Os Cuidados Paliativos são ações ativas e integrais a pacientes com doença progressiva e irreversível. Esta pauta ainda é negligenciada na agenda de saúde em boa parte dos países, sendo preciso pesquisas que contribuam para a melhor gestão da clínica e serviços frente a estas novas demandas. Considerando tal cenário e a capilaridade da atenção domiciliária na Atenção Básica, com a Estratégia Saúde da Família, pergunta-se: haveria entre os pacientes acamados, atendidos pela Saúde da Família, usuários que requerem Cuidados Paliativos? Com o propósito de iniciar a resposta para esta questão, apontando as dimensões da demanda por Cuidados Paliativos e sua relação com a Atenção Primária à Saúde no Sistema Único de Saúde, desenvolveu-se a presente pesquisa que identificou pacientes elegíveis para Cuidados Paliativos entre os atendidos pelo Programa de Dispensação de Insumos para Incontinência Urinária/Fecal da Secretaria Municipal de Saúde do Município de São Paulo. Objetivos: Identificar e caracterizar os usuários elegíveis para Cuidados Paliativos, dentre os atendidos pelo Programa de Dispensação de Insumos para Incontinência Urinária/Fecal em uma Supervisão Técnica de Saúde de São Paulo e discutir a incorporação dos Cuidados Paliativos na Atenção Primária à Saúde. Método: Pesquisa exploratória, descritiva, documental. Realizada nas Unidades de Saúde com Estratégia Saúde da Família, na região de Parelheiros do município de São Paulo, SP, Brasil. Com base na relação dos usuários cadastrados no Programa Dispensação de Insumos para Incontinência, mês base abril de 2012, selecionaram-se os registros que foram revisados para a coleta de dados clínicos, sociais e demográficos. Destes registros, foram selecionados os prontuários nas Unidades e a Escala de Performance de Karnofsky foi aplicada, identificando a indicação para cuidados paliativos destes pacientes. Resultados: Dentre os 180 registros cadastrados no Programa de Dispensação, concentrados nas Unidades localizadas nas áreas de maior urbanização, foi possível acesso a 160 registros. Predominaram os quadros crônico-degenerativos (46,26%), incluindo: AVC; doença de Alzheimer; doença de Parkinson; e Demências. A idade dos pacientes variou de 4 a 98 anos, com predomínio dos homens entre os jovens e das mulheres depois dos 60 anos. Aplicou-se a Escala de Performance de Karnofsky em 141 prontuários. A maioria dos casos (98,28%) alcançou pontuação abaixo de 70%, sendo elegíveis para Cuidados Paliativos, com incapacidade ou pelo menos necessidade frequente de ajuda, assistência médica e cuidados especiais. Conclusões: A Estratégia Saúde da Família confronta-se com as demandas de usuários que necessitam de Cuidados Paliativos. A inclusão dos Cuidados Paliativos na Atenção Primária à Saúde implica a organização de redes de cuidados continuados em que as equipes de Saúde da Família executariam ações segundo a resolubilidade prevista, nas Políticas de Saúde, para a Atenção Básica. / Introduction: The transformation of demographic, epidemiological profiles and possibilities of assistance have transformed Palliative Care as an important axis for the (re) organization of health systems and services in order to promote as much as possible welfare and quality until the end of life. Palliative care is active integral actions to patients with progressive and irreversible disease. This subject is still neglected in health agendas in most countries, requiring research that may contribute to better management of clinical services and confront these new demands. Given this scenario and the capillarity of homecare in Primary Health Care with Family Health Strategy, the question arises: is there between \'bedridden\' patients, attended by Family Health Strategy, those who require palliative care? In order to start up the answer to this question, indicating the dimensions of the demand for palliative care and its relationship with the Primary Health Care, this research was developed in order to identify patients eligible for palliative care among those attended by the Dispensing Supplies Program for Urinary/Fecal Incontinence of the Municipal Health Secretary of São Paulo. Objectives: To identify and characterize eligible users for Palliative Care, among those attended by Dispensing Supplies Program for Urinary/Fecal Incontinence in Technical Health Supervision in the city of São Paulo, and discuss the incorporation of Palliative Care in Primary Health Care. Method: Exploratory, descriptive and documental research, developed in Health Units with Family Health Strategy in Parelheiros region of the city of São Paulo, SP, Brazil. From the list of users registered in the Program Dispensing Supplies for Incontinence, month base April 2012, we selected the records and collected clinical, social and demographic data. Karnofsky Performance Status was applied, identifying the indication for palliative care of these patients. Results: Among the 180 records registered in the Dispensation Program, the majority from units located in areas of greater urbanization, we could access 160 records. In these cases prevailed chronic degenerative diseases (46.26%) including: stroke, Alzheimer\'s disease, Parkinson\'s disease and Dementia. The patients\' ages ranged from 4 to 98 years, with a predominance of men among youth and women after the age of 60. We applied the Karnofsky Performance Status was applied in 141 records. Most cases (98.28%) had performance below 70%, being eligible for Palliative Care, implying disabled or at least frequent help needing, medical assistance and care. Conclusions: The Family Health Strategy is faced with the demands of users who require palliative care. The inclusion of palliative care in primary care involves the organization of continuous care networks where teams of Family Health Strategy would perform actions according to the solvability provided in Health Policy for Primary Health Care.

Submitted by Maria Aparecida (cidazen@gmail.com) on 2017-04-18T14:10:47Z No. of bitstreams: 1 José de Jesus Dias.pdf: 4056526 bytes, checksum: 6dcac9eac4643fe488fb8d737b838031 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-04-18T14:10:47Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 José de Jesus Dias.pdf: 4056526 bytes, checksum: 6dcac9eac4643fe488fb8d737b838031 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-01-27 / In Brazil, the severe dengue cases have increased since2001. However, in children under 15 years, this trend began in 2007, mainly in the northeast of country. In Maranhão the first records of severe dengue date back to 2002. The objective of this research was to analysis prevalence of severe dengue for age group and its possible associated factors. It is treated of ecologic study of dengue cases confirmed the National Mandatory Reporting System (SINAN) from 2002 to 2011 in São Luís, Maranhão, Brazil. The diagnosis and dengue classification were based on the criteria of the Brazilian Ministry of Health, dengue fever, dengue hemorrhagic fever and dengue with complications. It was considered as severe dengue: dengue hemorrhagic fever and dengue with complications and as not severe dengue: dengue fever. We conducted logistic regression analysis, with the severe dengue outcome. During the period studied, 1,229 cases of severe dengue were confirmed; 812 of these were children under fifteen years (66%). Among the risk factors evaluated, being less than 15 years was associated with severe dengue (OR = 3.10, CI = 2.69-3.57; p-value = 0.001) as well as identifying as white (OR = 1.35, CI = 1.14-1.60; p-value = 0.001). The prevalence of severe dengue in children under fifteen years was high and only the group below the age of fifteen and white were associated with the occurrence of severe dengue. / No Brasil, os casos graves de dengue aumentaram a partir de 2001. No entanto, em menores de 15 anos, essa tendência teve início em 2007, principalmente no nordeste do país. No Maranhão os primeiros registros de casos graves de dengue remontam a 2002. O objetivo dessa pesquisa foi analisar a prevalência de casos de dengue grave por faixa etária e os possíveis fatores associados. Trata-se de estudo ecológico de casos de dengue em residentes de São Luís, Maranhão, Brasil, confirmados no Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificação (SINAN) de 2002 a 2011. O diagnóstico e a classificação de dengue foram baseados nos critérios do Ministério da Saúde, dengue clássica, febre hemorrágica da dengue e dengue com complicações. Considerou-se como dengue grave: febre hemorrágica da dengue e dengue com complicações e como dengue não grave: dengue clássica. Realizou-se análise de regressão logística, tendo como desfecho dengue grave. No período estudado confirmaram-se 1.229 casos de dengue grave; destes, 812 eram menores de quinze anos (66%). Dentre os fatores de risco avaliados, ter idade inferior a 15 anos foi associado à dengue grave (OR=3,10; IC=2,69-3,57; pvalor = 0,001) e ser da raça branca (OR=1,35; IC=1,14-1,60; p-valor = 0,001). A prevalência de dengue grave em menores de quinze anos foi elevada e apenas a faixa etária menor de quinze anos e raça branca estiveram associadas à ocorrência de dengue grave.

In this thesis, I have explored the different approaches towards proving Artin's `primitive root' conjecture unconditionally and the elliptic curve analogue of the same. This conjecture was posed by E. Artin in the year 1927, and it still remains an open problem. In 1967, C. Hooley proved the conjecture based on the assumption of the generalized Riemann hypothesis. Thereafter, the mathematicians tried to get rid of the assumption and it seemed quite a daunting task. In 1983, the pioneering attempt was made by R. Gupta and M. Ram Murty, who proved unconditionally that there exists a specific set of 13 distinct numbers such that for at least one of them, the conjecture is true. Along the same line, using sieve theory, D. R. Heath-Brown reduced this set down to 3 distinct primes in the year 1986. This is the best unconditional result we have so far. In the first part of this thesis, we will review the sieve theoretic approach taken by Gupta-Murty and Heath-Brown. The second half of the thesis will deal with the elliptic curve analogue of the Artin's conjecture, which is also known as the Lang-Trotter conjecture. Lang and Trotter proposed the elliptic curve analogue in 1977, including the higher rank version, and also proceeded to set up the mathematical formulation to prove the same. The analogue conjecture was proved by Gupta and Murty in the year 1986, assuming the generalized Riemann hypothesis, for curves with complex multiplication. They also proved the higher rank version of the same. We will discuss their proof in details, involving the sieve theoretic approach in the elliptic curve setup. Finally, I will conclude the thesis with a refinement proposed by Gupta and Murty to find out a finite set of points on the curve such that at least one satisfies the conjecture.