Hydrologiska analyser blir ett allt vanligare tillvägagångssätt för att kunna planera inför eventuella översvämningar. Då naturkatastrofer som dessa kommer öka i framtiden i takt med att temperaturen höjs och nederbörden ökar så har Fagerstakommun påbörjat framtagning av skyfallskartering. Syftet med studien är att undersöka hur resultatet av skyfallskartering och hydrologisk modellering påverkas av dataunderlagetsupplösning. Ytterligare ett mål med arbetet är att undersöka om den nationella höjdmodellen (NH) lämpar sig att användas som underlag vid framtida skyfallskarteringar.Området som berörs av studien ligger beläget i Fagerstas centrala stadskärna och delades uppi ett område nordväst om Bergslagssjukhuset och ett i stadsdelen Västanfors. Fagersta kommun har genomfört en laserskanning som ligger till grund för dataunderlagen i analyserna. Laserpunkterna harförarbetats i Cyclone 3DRochberäknatsi FME Workbenchgenom TIN (Triangulated Irregular Network) och sedan har digitala höjdmodeller (eng. digital elevation model, DEM) skapats i upplösningarna 0,5 m, 1 m, 2 m, 5 m, 10 m, 25 m och 50 m. Även den nyligen framställda NH användes som ett underlag. Denna består av en DEM i upplösning 1 m. Skyfallskartering genomfördes i ArcMap 10.8 medmetoden att lokalisera lågpunkter som riskerar att svämmas över. Hydrologisk modellering tillämpades i syfte att framställa flödesvägar som visar var vattnet rinner vid översvämning. Resultaten jämfördes med hjälp av feature agreement statisticssom visade hur bra dataunderlagen överensstämde mot referensupplösningen på 0,5 m. Ytterligare valideringar gjordes mot en skyfallskartering som tillhandahölls av Fagersta kommun. Denna genomfördes år 2017 av SMHI på uppdrag av Länsstyrelsen och jämfördes mot 0,5 m, 1 m och NH 1 m.Resultat från skyfallskarteringen visade att NH överensstämmer väl med Fagerstas egna skyfallskartering. Det visade att utbredningen generellt ökar och fill-up värdet minskar vid en lägre upplösning. Tvärsnitt från lågpunkterna visade attdetta även generaliserar djupet. De hydrologiska modelleringarna styrker att lägre upplösning generaliserar området. En slutsats kan dras att upplösningarna på 10 m och uppåt inte böranvändas vid en mer noggrann analys. Däremot kan de vara tillräckliga som underlag vid översiktlig kartering. Ytterligare slutsats drogsatt NH lämpar sig som underlag vid skyfallskartering för de flesta ändamålen. Ett underlag med tätare punkttäthet bör dockanvändas vid analyser som kräver ett mer detaljerat resultat. / Hydrological analyses are becoming a more common tool for being able to prepare for eventual floods. As natural disasters such as these will increase in the future as higher temperatures and increased precipitation Fagersta municipality has begun producing cloudburst maps. The aim of this study is to investigate the effects that resolution has on hydrological modelling and cloudburst mapping. Another goal of the study is to examine if the Swedish national height model (NH) is suitable for use in forthcoming cloudburst analyses.The study area is located in the city center of Fagersta and is divided into two areas, one northwest of the hospital named Bergslagssjukhuset and the other over the district Västanfors. Fagersta municipality has carried out a laserscanning which is used to create the different data sets in the analyses. The measured points have been preworked in Cyclone 3DR and calculated in FME Workbench as a TIN (Triangulated Irregular Network). Digital elevation models (DEM) were later on created with the following resolutions;0,5 m, 1 m, 2 m, 5 m, 10 m, 25 m and 50 m. The recently produced NH was also used as a data set. It consists of a DEM with a resolution of 1 m. The cloudburst mapping was implemented in ArcMap 10.8 with the method to locate blue spots that run the risk of being flooded. Hydrological modelling was applied with the aim of producing stream networks which presents where water will flow in case of a flood. The results were compared by using feature agreement statistics which showed how comparable the data sets were to the reference resolution of 0,5 m. Additional validations were made by using Fagersta municipality's own cloudburst map which was carried out in 2017 by SMHI on behalf of Länsstyrelsen. The datawas compared to 0,5 m, 1 m and NH 1 m.Results from the cloudburst mapping showed that NH compares well with Fagerstas data set. It also showed that the spread of blue spots generally increases and the fill-up valuedecreases at a lower resolution. Cross sections from the blue spots showed that this also generalizes depth. The hydrological modellings strengthens that lower resolutions generalizes areas. A conclusion can be drawn that the resolutions of 10 m and up should not be used in a precise analysis. They can however be used for easy-reference mapping. Another conclusion was drawn that NH is suitable for use as a data set in cloudburst mapping for most purposes. A data set with a better point density should however be used in analyses which require a more detailed result.

Within a research project about future sustainable water management options in the Elbe River basin, quasi-natural discharge scenarios had to be provided. The semi-distributed eco-hydrological model SWIM was utilised for this task. According to scenario simulations driven by the stochastical climate model STAR, the region would get distinctly drier. However, this thesis focuses on the challenge of meeting the requirement of high model fidelity even for smaller sub-basins. Usually, the quality of the simulations is lower at inner points than at the outlet. Four research paper chapters and the discussion chapter deal with the reasons for local model deviations and the problem of optimal spatial calibration. Besides other assessments, the Markov Chain Monte Carlo method is applied to show whether evapotranspiration or precipitation should be corrected to minimise runoff deviations, principal component analysis is used in an unusual way to evaluate local precipitation alterations by land cover changes, and remotely sensed surface temperatures allow for an independent view on the evapotranspiration landscape. The overall insight is that spatially explicit hydrological modelling of such a large river basin requires a lot of local knowledge. It probably needs more time to obtain such knowledge as is usually provided for hydrological modelling studies. / Innerhalb eines Forschungsprojekts zu zukünftigen nachhaltigen Optionen der Wasserwirtschaft im Elbe-Einzugsgebiet mußten quasi-natürliche Abflußszenarien bereitgestellt werden. Zu diesem Zweck wurde das räumlich diskretisierte ökohydrologische Modell SWIM eingesetzt. Nach den von dem stochastischen Klimamodell STAR angetriebenen Szenariosimulationen würde die Region deutlich trockener werden. Allerdings ist das Hauptthema dieser Dissertation die Herausforderung, die Ansprüche an hohe Modelltreue auch für kleinere Teileinzugsgebiete zu erfüllen. Normalerweise ist die Qualität der Simulationen für innere Punkte geringer als am Gebietsauslaß. Vier Fachartikel-Kapitel und das Diskussionskapitel beschäftigen sich mit den Gründen für lokale Modellabweichungen und dem Problem optimaler räumlicher Kalibrierung. Unter anderem wird die Markovketten-Monte-Carlo-Methode angewendet, um zu zeigen, ob Verdunstung oder Niederschlag korrigiert werden sollte, um Abweichungen des Abflusses zu minimieren, die Hauptkomponentenanalyse wird auf eine unübliche Weise benutzt, um lokale Niederschlagsänderungen aufgrund von Landnutzungsänderungen zu untersuchen, und fernerkundete Oberflächentemperaturen erlauben eine unabhängige Sicht auf die Verdunstungslandschaft. Die grundlegende Erkenntnis ist, daß die räumlich explizite hydrologische Modellierung eines so großen Flußeinzugsgebiets eine Menge Vor-Ort-Wissen erfordert. Wahrscheinlich wird mehr Zeit benötigt, solches Wissen zu erwerben, als üblicherweise für hydrologische Modellstudien zur Verfügung steht.

This thesis details the development and calibration of a model created by coupling a land surface simulation model named CLASS with a hydrologic model named WATFLOOD. The resulting model, known as WatCLASS, is able to serve as a lower boundary for an atmospheric model. In addition, WatCLASS can act independently of an atmospheric model to simulate fluxes of energy and moisture from the land surface including streamflow. These flux outputs are generated based on conservation equations for both heat and moisture ensuring result continuity. WatCLASS has been tested over both the data rich BOREAS domains at fine scales and the large but data poor domain of the Mackenzie River at coarse scale. The results, while encouraging, point to errors in the model physics related primarily to soil moisture transport in partially frozen soils and permafrost. Now that a fully coupled model has been developed, there is a need for continued research by refining model processes and test WatCLASS's robustness using new datasets that are beginning to emerge. Hydrologic models provide a mechanism for the improvement of atmospheric simulation though two important mechanisms. First, atmospheric inputs to the land surface, such as rainfall and temperature, are transformed by vegetation and soil systems into outputs of energy and mass. One of these mass outputs, which have been routinely measured with a high degree of accuracy, is streamflow. Through the use of hydrologic simulations, inputs from atmospheric models may be transformed to streamflow to assess reliability of precipitation and temperature. In this situation, hydrologic models act in an analogous way to a large rain gauge whose surface area is that of a watershed. WatCLASS has been shown to be able to fulfill this task by simulating streamflow from atmospheric forcing data over multi-year simulation periods and the large domains necessary to allow integration with limited area atmospheric models. A second, more important, role exists for hydrologic models within atmospheric simulations. The earth's surface acts as a boundary condition for the atmosphere. Besides the output of streamflow, which is not often considered in atmospheric modeling, the earth's surface also outputs fluxes of energy in the form of evaporation, known as latent heat and near surface heating, known as sensible heat. By simulating streamflow and hence soil moisture over the land surface, hydrologic models, when properly enabled with both energy and water balance capabilities, can influence the apportioning of the relative quantities of latent and sensible heat flux that are required by atmospheric models. WatCLASS has shown that by improving streamflow simulations, evaporation amounts are reduced by approximately 70% (1271mm to 740mm) during a three year simulation period in the BOREAS northern old black spruce site (NSA-OBS) as compared to the use of CLASS alone. To create a model that can act both as a lower boundary for the atmosphere and a hydrologic model, two choices are available. This model can be constructed from scratch with all the caveats and problems associated with proving a new model and having it accepted by the atmospheric community. An alternate mechanism, more likely to be successfully implemented, was chosen for the development of WatCLASS. Here, two proven and well tested models, WATFLOOD and CLASS, were coupled in a phased integration strategy that allowed development to proceed on model components independently. The ultimate goal of this implementation strategy, a fully coupled atmospheric - land surface - hydrologic model, was developed for MC2-CLASS-WATFLOOD. Initial testing of this model, over the Saguenay region of Quebec, has yet to show that adding WATFLOOD to CLASS produces significant impacts on atmospheric simulation. It is suspected, that this is due to the short term nature of the weather simulation that is dominated by initial conditions imposed on the atmospheric model during the data assimilation cycle. To model the hydrologic system, using the domain of an atmospheric model, requires that methods be developed to characterize land surface forms that influence hydrologic response. Methods, such as GRU (Grouped Response Unit) developed for WATFLOOD, need to be extended to taken advantage of alternate data forms, such as soil and topography, in a way that allows parameters to be selected <I>a priori</I>. Use of GIS (Geographical Information System) and large data bases to assist in development of these relationships has been started here. Some success in creating DEMs, (Digital Elevation Model) which are able to reproduce watershed areas, was achieved. These methods build on existing software implementations to include lake boundaries information as a topographic data source. Other data needs of hydrologic models will build on relationships between land cover, soil, and topography to assist in establishing grouping of these variables required to determine hydrologic similarity. This final aspect of the research is currently in its infancy but provides a platform from which to explore for future initiatives. Original contributions of this thesis are centered on the addition of a lateral flow generation mechanism within a land surface scheme. This addition has shown a positive impact on flux returns to the atmosphere when compared to measured values and also provide increased realism to the model since measured streamflow is reproduced. These contributions have been encapsulated into a computer model known as WatCLASS, which together with the implementation plan, as presented, should lead to future atmospheric simulation improvements.

Drylands cover about 40% of the earth’s land surface and provide the basis for the livelihoods of 38% of the global human population. Worldwide, these ecosystems are prone to heavy degradation. Increasing levels of dryland degradation result a strong decline of ecosystem services. In addition, in highly variable semi-arid environments changing future environmental conditions will potentially have severe consequences for productivity and ecosystem dynamics. Hence, global efforts have to be made to understand the particular causes and consequences of dryland degradation and to promote sustainable management options for semi-arid and arid ecosystems in a changing world. Here I particularly address the problem of semi-arid savanna degradation, which mostly occurs in form of woody plant encroachment. At this, I aim at finding viable sustainable management strategies and improving the general understanding of semi-arid savanna vegetation dynamics under conditions of extensive livestock production. Moreover, the influence of external forces, i.e. environmental change and land reform, on the use of savanna vegetation and on the ecosystem response to this land use is assessed. Based on this I identify conditions and strategies that facilitate a sustainable use of semi-arid savanna rangelands in a changing world. I extended an eco-hydrological model to simulate rangeland vegetation dynamics for a typical semi-arid savanna in eastern Namibia. In particular, I identified the response of semi-arid savanna vegetation to different land use strategies (including fire management) also with regard to different predicted precipitation, temperature and CO2 regimes. Not only environmental but also economic and political constraints like e.g. land reform programmes are shaping rangeland management strategies. Hence, I aimed at understanding the effects of the ongoing process of land reform in southern Africa on land use and the semi-arid savanna vegetation. Therefore, I developed and implemented an agent-based ecological-economic modelling tool for interactive role plays with land users. This tool was applied in an interdisciplinary empirical study to identify general patterns of management decisions and the between-farm cooperation of land reform beneficiaries in eastern Namibia. The eco-hydrological simulations revealed that the future dynamics of semi-arid savanna vegetation strongly depend on the respective climate change scenario. In particular, I found that the capacity of the system to sustain domestic livestock production will strongly depend on changes in the amount and temporal distribution of precipitation. In addition, my simulations revealed that shrub encroachment will become less likely under future climatic conditions although positive effects of CO2 on woody plant growth and transpiration have been considered. While earlier studies predicted a further increase in shrub encroachment due to increased levels of atmospheric CO2, my contrary finding is based on the negative impacts of temperature increase on the drought sensitive seedling germination and establishment of woody plant species. Further simulation experiments revealed that prescribed fires are an efficient tool for semi-arid rangeland management, since they suppress woody plant seedling establishment. The strategies tested have increased the long term productivity of the savanna in terms of livestock production and decreased the risk for shrub encroachment (i.e. savanna degradation). This finding refutes the views promoted by existing studies, which state that fires are of minor importance for the vegetation dynamics of semi-arid and arid savannas. Again, the difference in predictions is related to the bottleneck at the seedling establishment stage of woody plants, which has not been sufficiently considered in earlier studies. The ecological-economic role plays with Namibian land reform beneficiaries showed that the farmers made their decisions with regard to herd size adjustments according to economic but not according to environmental variables. Hence, they do not manage opportunistically by tracking grass biomass availability but rather apply conservative management strategies with low stocking rates. This implies that under the given circumstances the management of these farmers will not per se cause (or further worsen) the problem of savanna degradation and shrub encroachment due to overgrazing. However, as my results indicate that this management strategy is rather based on high financial pressure, it is not an indicator for successful rangeland management. Rather, farmers struggle hard to make any positive revenue from their farming business and the success of the Namibian land reform is currently disputable. The role-plays also revealed that cooperation between farmers is difficult even though obligatory due to the often small farm sizes. I thus propose that cooperation needs to be facilitated to improve the success of land reform beneficiaries. / Semiaride (halbtrockene) Savannen bedecken große Teile der Erdoberfläche und sichern die Lebensgrundlage von vielen Millionen Menschen. Die häufigste Form der Landnutzung in diesen Trockengebieten ist die Produktion von Vieh in extensiver Weidelandbewirtschaftung. In Folge klimatischer Veränderungen und als Konsequenz aus der teils intensiven Beweidung dieser Trockengebiete kommt es häufig zur Degradierung derselben in Form einer Zunahme von ‚unerwünschter‘ holziger Vegetation auf Kosten von futterverwertbaren Gräsern. Dieser als Verbuschung bezeichnete Prozess hat schwere negative Auswirkungen auf die betroffenen Ökosysteme und ist die Ursache für einen zunehmenden Rückgang der ökonomischen Leistungsfähigkeit der betroffenen Betriebe. In meiner Dissertation befasse ich mich mit den Auswirkungen von Klimawandel und politischen Veränderungen auf die Savannenvegetation im südlichen Afrika und auf die Möglichkeiten für die Nutzung dieser Ökosysteme in Form von Viehwirtschaft. Hierbei möchte ich sowohl das allgemeine Verständnis der ökologischen Zusammenhänge verbessern, als auch Strategien für die nachhaltige Nutzung der Savannen identifizieren und bewerten. Da nicht nur ökologische, sondern auch ökonomische und politische Einflussfaktoren, wie zum Beispiel die umfangreichen Landumverteilungen im Rahmen der Bodenreform im südlichen Afrika auf die tatsächliche Landnutzung wirken, habe ich im Rahmen der Dissertation zudem untersucht, nach welchen Umwelt und Kapitalvariablen sich die Farmer, welche Ihr Land im Rahmen der Bodenreform zugeteilt bekommen haben, bei Ihren Entscheidungen richten. Methodisch verwende ich verschiedene Simulationsmodelle, welche zur Untersuchung der langfristigen Veränderungen von verschiedensten Szenarien (Klimawandel, Landnutzung) geeignet sind. Hierbei habe ich teilweise bestehende Modelle angepasst, aber auch ein neues Modell, welches zur Befragung von Farmern in Namibia verwendet wurde, entwickelt. Meine Dissertation führt im Wesentlichen zu vier Erkenntnissen: Erstens, zeigen meine Ergebnisse, welche große Bedeutung die spezifischen ökologischen Eigenschaften der Bäume und Sträucher in semiariden Savannen für die Vorhersage der Entwicklung dieser Systeme unter Klimawandel hat. Hierbei zeigte sich, dass insbesondere die Sensitivität der Keimlinge gegenüber Trockenheit und Feuer eine entscheidende Rolle spielt. Daraus folgt die zweite wesentliche Erkenntnis: Feuer eignet sich in herausragender Weise, um halbtrockene Savannen vor der Verbuschung zu bewahren. Drittens haben die Rollenspiele mit Farmern in Namibia gezeigt, dass deren Entscheidungen im Wesentlichen von finanziellen Schwierigkeiten und nicht von Umwelteinflüssen getrieben werden. Dennoch zeigten meine Ergebnisse, dass diese Farmer mit Ihrem derzeitigen Verhalten wahrscheinlich nicht zur weiteren Degradierung der Savannenvegetation beitragen. Die vierte, und mit am bedeutendste Erkenntnis aus meiner Arbeit ist, dass konservative Beweidungsstrategien mit geringen und konstanten Viehdichten notwendig sind um semiaride Savannen dauerhaft in ökologisch und ökonomisch nachhaltiger Weise zu Nutzen.

This thesis details the development and calibration of a model created by coupling a land surface simulation model named CLASS with a hydrologic model named WATFLOOD. The resulting model, known as WatCLASS, is able to serve as a lower boundary for an atmospheric model. In addition, WatCLASS can act independently of an atmospheric model to simulate fluxes of energy and moisture from the land surface including streamflow. These flux outputs are generated based on conservation equations for both heat and moisture ensuring result continuity. WatCLASS has been tested over both the data rich BOREAS domains at fine scales and the large but data poor domain of the Mackenzie River at coarse scale. The results, while encouraging, point to errors in the model physics related primarily to soil moisture transport in partially frozen soils and permafrost. Now that a fully coupled model has been developed, there is a need for continued research by refining model processes and test WatCLASS's robustness using new datasets that are beginning to emerge. Hydrologic models provide a mechanism for the improvement of atmospheric simulation though two important mechanisms. First, atmospheric inputs to the land surface, such as rainfall and temperature, are transformed by vegetation and soil systems into outputs of energy and mass. One of these mass outputs, which have been routinely measured with a high degree of accuracy, is streamflow. Through the use of hydrologic simulations, inputs from atmospheric models may be transformed to streamflow to assess reliability of precipitation and temperature. In this situation, hydrologic models act in an analogous way to a large rain gauge whose surface area is that of a watershed. WatCLASS has been shown to be able to fulfill this task by simulating streamflow from atmospheric forcing data over multi-year simulation periods and the large domains necessary to allow integration with limited area atmospheric models. A second, more important, role exists for hydrologic models within atmospheric simulations. The earth's surface acts as a boundary condition for the atmosphere. Besides the output of streamflow, which is not often considered in atmospheric modeling, the earth's surface also outputs fluxes of energy in the form of evaporation, known as latent heat and near surface heating, known as sensible heat. By simulating streamflow and hence soil moisture over the land surface, hydrologic models, when properly enabled with both energy and water balance capabilities, can influence the apportioning of the relative quantities of latent and sensible heat flux that are required by atmospheric models. WatCLASS has shown that by improving streamflow simulations, evaporation amounts are reduced by approximately 70% (1271mm to 740mm) during a three year simulation period in the BOREAS northern old black spruce site (NSA-OBS) as compared to the use of CLASS alone. To create a model that can act both as a lower boundary for the atmosphere and a hydrologic model, two choices are available. This model can be constructed from scratch with all the caveats and problems associated with proving a new model and having it accepted by the atmospheric community. An alternate mechanism, more likely to be successfully implemented, was chosen for the development of WatCLASS. Here, two proven and well tested models, WATFLOOD and CLASS, were coupled in a phased integration strategy that allowed development to proceed on model components independently. The ultimate goal of this implementation strategy, a fully coupled atmospheric - land surface - hydrologic model, was developed for MC2-CLASS-WATFLOOD. Initial testing of this model, over the Saguenay region of Quebec, has yet to show that adding WATFLOOD to CLASS produces significant impacts on atmospheric simulation. It is suspected, that this is due to the short term nature of the weather simulation that is dominated by initial conditions imposed on the atmospheric model during the data assimilation cycle. To model the hydrologic system, using the domain of an atmospheric model, requires that methods be developed to characterize land surface forms that influence hydrologic response. Methods, such as GRU (Grouped Response Unit) developed for WATFLOOD, need to be extended to taken advantage of alternate data forms, such as soil and topography, in a way that allows parameters to be selected <I>a priori</I>. Use of GIS (Geographical Information System) and large data bases to assist in development of these relationships has been started here. Some success in creating DEMs, (Digital Elevation Model) which are able to reproduce watershed areas, was achieved. These methods build on existing software implementations to include lake boundaries information as a topographic data source. Other data needs of hydrologic models will build on relationships between land cover, soil, and topography to assist in establishing grouping of these variables required to determine hydrologic similarity. This final aspect of the research is currently in its infancy but provides a platform from which to explore for future initiatives. Original contributions of this thesis are centered on the addition of a lateral flow generation mechanism within a land surface scheme. This addition has shown a positive impact on flux returns to the atmosphere when compared to measured values and also provide increased realism to the model since measured streamflow is reproduced. These contributions have been encapsulated into a computer model known as WatCLASS, which together with the implementation plan, as presented, should lead to future atmospheric simulation improvements.

Der Landschaftswasserhaushalt stellt die Integrationsebene der Geokomponenten Klima, Boden und Landnutzung dar und unterliegt aktuell einer intensiven Forschungstätigkeit. Die charakteristische Ausprägung des Landschaftswasserhaushaltes ist in der mitteleuropäischen Kulturlandschaft das Ergebnis einer von vielfältigen Triebkräften bestimmten komplexen Nutzung. Diese existierenden Nutzungsansprüche werden aber nicht gezielt zur Optimierung des Landschaftswasserhaushaltes koordiniert, da die handelnden Akteure teils völlig gegensätzlichen Zielrichtungen verfolgen. Insgesamt gesehen bietet die Optimierung der nicht besiedelten Landfläche auf Grund ihrer großen Flächeninanspruchnahme die größten Potentiale der Beeinflussung des Landschaftswasserhaushaltes. In der vorliegenden Arbeit werden mit der hydrologischen Modellierung und der funktionalen Landschaftsbewertung zwei völlig unterschiedliche methodische Ansätze zur Analyse hydrologischer Prozesse im Landschaftswasserhaushalt genutzt, um die Reaktion des Wasserhaushaltes auf Landschaftsveränderungen zu untersuchen. Es wird am Beispiel eines Flusseinzugsgebietes im Erzgebirge gezeigt, inwieweit sich durch ein Niederschlag-Abfluss-Modell Änderungen im Wasserhaushalt von Landnutzungsszenarien aufzeigen lassen, die auf der Grundlage von Landschaftsbewertungsverfahren erstellt wurden. Es sollen also mittels hydrologischer Modellierung die qualitativen Resultate eines deutlich einfacher zu realisierenden Planungsverfahrens quantifiziert werden. Auf der Basis der bewerteten Landschaftsfunktionen Abflussregulationsfunktion, Wassererosionswiderstand, Ertragspotential und physikochemisches Filtervermögen des Bodens wurden durch multikriterielle Optimierung mit der Software LNOPT zwei sich unterscheidende Szenarien, ein eher realistisch angelegtes Szenario (Realszenario) und ein Szenario mit möglichst hoher Retentionswirkung (Szenario Abflussminimierung) entwickelt. Beide Szenarien sind an die Realität angelehnt und nicht fiktiv, wodurch sich starke Einschränkungen hinsichtlich der optimierbaren Fläche ergeben. So stehen nur 36,5 % der Gesamtfläche zur Landnutzungsoptimierung zur Verfügung wovon nur 12,5 % der Fläche durch den Optimierungsprozess in ihrer Nutzung umgewidmet wird. Der Wasserhaushalt der entwickelten Landnutzungsszenarien wurde mit dem Wasserhaushaltssimulationsmodell WaSiM-ETH in zehn ausgewählten Teileinzugsgebieten modelliert. Die Gebietsanpassung erfolgte dabei an den Pegeln Lauenstein und Geising mit einem multi-response Ansatz, der auch Ergebnisse einer Ganglinienseparation und Vergleiche zu einer Arbeit im benachbarten Weißeritzeinzugsgebiet berücksichtigt. Im Ergebnis zeigte die Validierung eine gelungene Gebietsanpassung des Modells WaSiM-ETH mit geringen Schwächen im Winter und bei außergewöhnlichen Extremereignissen. Insgesamt zeigt sich in allen modellierten Teileinzugsgebieten ein Rückgang des Gesamtabflusses, allerdings in Größenordnungen, die sich räumlich sehr stark unterscheiden. Berechnet wurde dabei nur der Wasserhaushalt für das Szenario „Abflussminimierung“, da sich beide Szenarien in den hydrologisch ähnlichen Teileinzugsgebieten nur wenig unterscheiden. Die statistische Auswertung der Ergebnisse erfolgte mit Spearmans Rangkorrelations¬koeffizient und zeigte: • dass mit steigender Höhenlage die Möglichkeiten der Abflussminimierung durch Landnutzungsveränderungen abnehmen. Im Indikator Höhenlage spiegeln sich dabei mehrere Parameter wider, welche die sich mit der Höhe wandelnden Klima-, Boden- und Reliefbedingungen ausdrücken. • dass mögliche Abflussminderungen mit dem Ackeranteil eines Einzugsgebietes positiv signifikant korreliert sind. Die Abflussminderungspotentiale steigen also mit steigendem Ackeranteil an. • dass die absolute Niederschlagsmenge keinen direkten Einfluss auf die Abflussminderung hat, vielmehr ist die jährliche Niederschlagsverteilung bedeutsam für die Möglichkeiten des Wasserrückhaltes in der Fläche. Als Voraussetzung für die erfolgreiche Anwendung von LNOPT im Rahmen hydrologischer Fragestellungen sind die Berücksichtigung beziehungsweise Bearbeitung folgender Punkte: • Ermittlung der hydrologischen Senkenpotentiale zu Beginn des Planungsprozesses um sich auf Gebiete mit hohem hydrologischen Senkenpotential zu konzentrieren, • Planung von Landnutzungsveränderungen hinsichtlich Nutzungstyp, Nutzungsart oder Nutzungsintensität anhand von Bewertungsverfahren, welche die hydrologischen Differenzen gut widerspiegeln, • Einbeziehung der handelnden Akteure in den Planungsprozess um die möglichst vollständige Umsetzung der geplanten Maßnahmen zu ermöglichen. Mit der vorliegenden Arbeit wird gezeigt, dass im Mittelgebirgsraum Abflussminderungspotentiale im Zuge von Landnutzungsveränderungen vorhanden sind, diese aber regional sehr stark differenziert ausgeprägt sind. Methodisch konnte demonstriert werden, dass das eingesetzte Verfahren der multikriteriellen Landnutzungsoptimierung zur Planungsunterstützung im Rahmen hydrologischer Fragestellungen genutzt werden kann, wenn die genannten Rahmenbedingungen beachtet werden. / The hydrological balance of a landscape integrates different geocomponents such as climate, soil and land use and is an object of intensive research activities. The specific characteristic of the hydrological balance of a landscape shows the result of a complex utilisation system which is caused by manifold driving forces. Due to different strategic objectives of thestakeholders, their demands are contrasting and therefore it is very difficult to coordinate these demands with respect to influencing the hydrological balance of a landscape. Changes of land use in non-settled areas have the highest potential of modifying the hydrological balance of a landscape due to the large extent of affected area. In this thesis two different methodical approaches are used to analyse the hydrological processes in the water balance of a landscape in order to investigate the effects of land use changes on the hydrological balance of a landscape. The applied methods are hydrological modelling and functional landscape assessment. Hydrological modelling quantifies the water balance of scenarios made by a much easier to realise planning method on the basis of a functional landscape assessment. Land use scenarios on the basis of a functional landscape assessment can be build through a multi-criteria optimisation process using the software LNOPT (“land use op-timisation”). By using this method, the hydrological balance of a landscape and the specific local conditions are described by the following landscape functions: runoff regulation, resistance against water erosion, biotic yield potential and physical-chemical cleaning potential of soils. On the basis of the assessment of these landscape functions, two land use scenarios were developed using the method of multi-criteria optimisation, namely, a more realistic scenario and one with the highest possible water retention potential. Even though both scenarios are different in their closeness to reality, they are both inspired by reality and not just fictitious. Due to different restrictions only 36.5 % of the entire catchment area could be used in the optimisation process. In the scenario with the highest possible water retention potential only 12.5 % of the land use was changed and in the more realistic scenario the changes were slightly smaller. The water balance simulation model WaSiM-ETH is well suited to quantify changes in the hydrological balance in the context of land-use changes at the meso-scale. The adaptations to the catchment area characteristics were done by the calibration on the gauges Lauenstein and Geising in a multi response approach considering results of a hydrograph curve separation and the results of a research in the neighbouring Weisseritz catchment. The validation shows a successful adaptation to the regional catchment area characteristics with minor shortcomings in winter and by extraordinary high precipitation events. In the whole investigated area possible changes of the hydrological balance are rather negligible due to only small land use changes. But in 10 selected subcatchments the hydrological modelling shows a decrease of discharge in the scenario with the highest possible water retention potential. The dimensions of the decrease in the discharge are regionally very different due to varying spatial characteristics. These differences get systemised through a statistical analysis using the Spearman’s Rank Correlation Coefficient. The following correlations were found: • The possibilities of a decrease in discharge through land use modification are getting smaller with an increase in altitude. The complex indicator “altitude” contains different parameters which reflect the shifting of climatic, soil and relief conditions with changing altitude. • The possibilities of a decrease in discharge are getting higher with the percentage of arable land in the subcatchments. • The amount of precipitation has no direct influence of the possible decrease in discharge in the subcatchments. The influence of the annual variation of precipitation is larger than the absolute annual amount of precipitation. For a successful application of LNOPT for the development of land use scenarios with a hydrologic context the following requirements have to be considered: • ahead of the planning process, pedological and geological potentials of the investigated area in terms of a decrease in discharge should be investigated • landscape functions which show hydrological differences in terms of land use types, the kind and the intensity of land use should be used • local steak holders should be integrated in the planning process to ensure the complete implementation of the planned measures as much as possible. In this thesis it could be shown that mountainous regions have a potential for a decrease in discharge caused by a land use change, but with substantial regional variations. The evaluation of the used methods demonstrated that the multi-criteria optimisation software LNOPT is well suited to support hydrological related planning processes if conditions mentioned above are considered.

<p>Land and water resources degradation are the major problems on the Ethiopian highlands. Poor land use practices and improper management systems have played a significant role in causing high soil erosion rates, sediment transport and loss of agricultural nutrients. So far limited meas-ures have been taken to combat the problems. In this study a physically based watershed model, SWAT2005 was applied to the Northern Highlands of Ethiopia for modelling of the hydrology and sediment yield. The main objective of this study was to test the performance and feasibility of SWAT2005 model to examine the influence of topography, land use, soil and climatic condi-tion on streamflows, soil erosion and sediment yield. The model was calibrated and validated on four tributaries of Lake Tana as well as Anjeni watershed using SUFI-2, GLUE and ParaSol algo-rithms. SWAT and GIS based decision support system (MCE analysis) were also used to identify the most erosion prone areas in the Lake Tana Basin. Streamflows are more sensitive to the hy-drological response unites definition thresholds than subbasin discretization. Prediction of sedi-ment yield is highly sensitive to subbasin size and slope discretization. Baseflow is an important component of the total discharge within the study area that contributes more than the surface runoff. There is a good agreement between the measured and simulated flows and sediment yields with higher values of coefficients of determination and Nash Sutcliffe efficiency. The an-nual average measured sediment yield in Anjeni watershed was 24.6 tonnes/ha. The annual aver-age simulated sediment yield was 27.8 and 29.5 tonnes/ha for calibration and validation periods, respectively. The SWAT model indicated that 18.5 % of the Lake Tana Basin is erosion potential areas. Whereas the MCE result indicated that 25.5 % of the basin are erosion potential areas. The calibrated model can be used for further analysis of the effect of climate and land use change as well as other different management scenarios on streamflows and soil erosion. The result of the study could help different stakeholders to plan and implement appropriate soil and water conser-vation strategies.</p>

Les zones intertropicales sont caractérisées par des précipitations très variables dans l'espace et le temps qui peuvent produire sur une même région des conditions de sécheresse prolongées entrecoupées d'événements pluviométriques intenses. Ces extrêmes secs et humides peuvent provoquer des pénuries d’eau ou des inondations, mettant en péril des populations souvent très vulnérables aux aléas climatiques. C'est particulièrement le cas de l'Afrique de l'Ouest qui, dans un contexte de conditions sèches dominantes depuis les années 1970, subit ces deux dernières décennies un nombre croissant d'inondations. Face à un réchauffement climatique déjà bien réel, mais qui va se renforcer avec des conséquences sur le cycle de l'eau encore très incertaines, il est nécessaire de mieux comprendre comment la variabilité climatique – et en l’occurrence plus spécifiquement la variabilité pluviométrique, impacte la variabilité hydrologique. On dispose pour cela de modèles numériques de surface qui représentent de façon explicite les principaux processus intervenant dans les bilans d’eau. Ils doivent être alimentés par des champs de forçage pluviométrique à des résolutions suffisamment fines pour bien représenter les variabilités de petite échelle qui caractérisent les précipitations tropicales (résolution spatiale de quelques kilomètres et pas de temps horaire ou inférieur). De telles résolutions sont la plupart du temps incompatibles avec les échelles des données issues des réseaux pluviométriques nationaux en Afrique de l'Ouest (densité moyenne de 1 pluviomètre pour 10.000 km² au pas de temps journalier). Il existe de surcroît des zones entières qui sont peu ou mal couvertes du fait de conditions climatiques difficiles ou du manque de moyens des services météorologiques nationaux. Dans ce contexte, la télédétection satellite s'avère très utile, mais elle ne permet pas encore d’atteindre les résolutions mentionnées plus haut. Compte tenu de cette situation, la question de la sensibilité des modèles hydrologiques à la résolution des champs pluviométriques utilisés pour les forcer constitue un sujet important, assez peu abordé en tant que tel dans la littérature consacrée à l’utilisation des données satellitaires pour forcer des modèles hydrologiques.Cette thèse s’attache donc à traiter séquentiellement deux questions distinctes, mais souvent confondues : i) quel est l’impact de la dégradation de la résolution spatio-temporelle des champs de forçages pluviométriques sur la réponse d’un modèle hydrologique, et ce en supposant que ces champs sont dépourvus d’erreur en moyenne ; ii) comment les champs de pluie estimés par satellite, qui présentent de façon combinée des problèmes de résolution et de biais, influencent-ils la réponse hydrologique simulée?Le jeu de données utilisé pour l’étude est celui du site soudanien de l’observatoire AMMA-CATCH au Benin (bassin de l’Ouémé, 13150 km2). Le réseau de pluviographes de cet observatoire permet de calculer des champs de référence à très fine résolution (0.05° et 30 minutes), utilisés pour forcer le modèle hydrologique DHSVM et constituer ainsi des débits simulés de référence. A partir de là il est possible de procéder à des études de sensibilité dans les deux directions mentionnées ci-dessus. / Intertropical climates are characterized by a strong space-time variability of precipitation that can produce persistent dry spells and extreme rainfall events within the same region. These extreme climatic conditions directly impact water resources and flood occurrences, threatening populations that are highly vulnerable to natural hazards. This is especially the case in West Africa, where an increasing number of flood events has been reported over the last twenty years while the dry conditions that have started in the 1970's still prevail nowadays. While a significant climate warming is already observed in this region, there is more to come, with possible changes of the patterns of rainfall variability. It is thus of primary importance to better apprehend how sensitive is the hydrological response of West African catchments to small scale rainfall variability. Numerical models explicitly simulating the hydrological processes have already been tested and calibrated to represent the rainfall-runoff relationship of these catchments. They require high resolution (typically a few kilometers in space and one hour or less in time) rainfields as inputs, so as to account properly for the small scale variability of precipitation. However, this requirement is difficult to meet in a region where operational networks have a density which often does not exceed one gauge per 10000 km² and provide daily measurements only. Satellite remote sensing is consequently seen as a remedy to the shortcomings of ground monitoring, especially as it provides a continuous monitoring in space and time, but satellite rainfall products are still far from reaching the high space-time resolution mentioned above. In such a context, the sensitivity of hydrological models to the resolution of their forcing rainfields is an important topic, rarely tackled as such in the literature dealing with hydrological modeling based on satellite data.This PHD thesis thus focus on two related questions : i) how degrading the space-time resolution of forcing rainfields is influencing the response of hydrologic models, assuming that this degradation of the resolution has no influence on the biases ? ; ii) what are the consequences of using satellite rainfall products – which combine low resolution and bias problems – for simulating the response of catchments in tropical regions?To that end the AMMA-CATCH data set of the Ouémé catchment (13150 km2) in Benin is used. The high density recording raingauge network allows the computation of fine resolution rainfields (0.05°; 30 minutes), used as inputs to the DHSVM hydrological model, providing reference series of river flows at the outlet of the catchment.

Pouvoir évaluer l'impact du changement climatique sur la ressource en eau, et les systèmes de gestion qui lui sont associés, est une préoccupation majeure de nos sociétés. Une telle évaluation nécessite la mise en place d'une chaîne de simulation qui permet, sur la base d'expériences climatiques futures, i) d'estimer à l'échelle régionale l'évolution possible de la ressource et de sa variabilité, ii) de simuler le comportement des systèmes utilisés pour leur gestion pour iii) estimer les éventuelles modifications de performance. Cette thèse vise à tester la possibilité de mettre en place une chaîne de simulation de ce type pour un système de gestion réel et à identifier quelles sont les composantes à considérer dans ce cas. Pour ce faire, nous chercherons en particulier à apporter des éléments de réponse aux questions suivantes: - Quelles représentations peut-on faire d'un système de gestion opérationnel pour une application en climat modifié ? - Quels éléments d'évaluation peuvent permettre d'estimer l'impact du changement climatique sur ce système de gestion ? - Quelles sont les sources d'incertitudes influençant cette évaluation ? Quelles sont les contributions relatives à l'incertitude totale des différentes méthodes et modèles utilisés ? Nous considérerons plus précisément le système de gestion du barrage de Serre-Ponçon, alimenté par le haut bassin versant de la Durance. Ce barrage, géré par EDF, est l'un des plus grands barrages artificiels européens. Il est multi-usages (irrigation, soutien d'étiage, production d'hydroélectricité, tourisme). Dans un premier temps, nous présenterons le contexte du système de gestion actuel. Nous mettrons ensuite en place un modèle de gestion du barrage visant à reproduire – de façon réaliste du point de vue du gestionnaire actuel (EDF), mais simplifiée pour pouvoir être appliqué sous scénarios futurs - la gestion actuelle du barrage. Nous développerons pour cela i) des modèles permettant d'estimer les différentes demandes en eau et ii) un modèle d'optimisation de la gestion sous contraintes. Ce modèle permettra de simuler la gestion du système au pas de temps journalier sur plusieurs décennies du climat récent, ou de climats futurs modifiés. Nous proposerons ensuite un ensemble d'indicateurs qui permettent de fournir une estimation de la performance d'un tel système à partir des sorties du modèle de gestion obtenues par simulation pour différentes périodes de 30 ans. Nous explorerons la façon dont la performance estimée dépend du modèle choisi pour la représentation du système de gestion actuel, et plus précisément de la façon dont la stratégie utilisée pour l'optimisation de la gestion est élaborée. A ce titre, nous proposerons trois modèles de gestion basés sur trois types de stratégies, obtenues pour des degrés différents de prévisibilité des apports et sollicitations futurs à la retenue. Pour ces simulations, les modèles d'impacts nécessitent des scénarios de forçages météorologiques à l'échelle de bassin versant (e.g. modèle hydrologique, modèle d'usages de l'eau, modèle de gestion de la ressource). Ces scénarios peuvent être obtenus par des méthodes de descente d'échelle statistique (MDES), sur la base des simulations grande échelle des modèles climatiques globaux. Enfin, nous évaluerons les incertitudes liées aux deux types de modèles et estimerons leurs contributions relatives à l'incertitude globale. Nous utiliserons pour cela les scénarios issus de différentes chaines de simulation GCM/MDES produits sur la période 1860-2011 dans le cadre du projet RIWER2030. Nous montrerons que ces deux sources d'incertitudes sont du même ordre de grandeur sur l'estimation des modifications de performance. / Assess the impact of climate change on water resources and management systems associated, is a major concern of our society. This requires the establishment of a simulation chain which allows, on the basis of future climate experiments i) to estimate the possible changes in regional resource and its variability, ii) to simulate the behavior of the systems used to manage them in order to iii) estimate the possible changes in performance. This thesis aims to test the feasibility of establishing a chain simulation of such a management system to identify what are the real components to consider in this case. To do this, we have to provide answers to the following questions: - How can we represent an operational management system in a climate change context? - What elements of evaluation can be used to estimate the impact of climate change on the management system? - What are the sources of uncertainty influencing this assessment? What are the relative contributions to the total uncertainty of these different methods and models used? We consider the system of management of the reservoir of Serre-Ponçon, built on the high basin of the Durance. This dam, operated by EDF, is one of the largest artificial dams Europe. It is multi-purpose (irrigation, low-flow support, hydropower, tourism). As a first step, we will present the context of the current management system. Then, we will establish a management model to reproduce - in a realistic way from the point of view of the current manager (EDF), but simplified to be applied in future scenarios - the current management of the Serre-Ponçon reserve. We will develop for this, i) different models to estimate different water demands and ii) an optimization model with constraints management. This model will simulate the management system in daily time step on several decades of recent climate or future climate change. We then propose a set of indicators to provide an estimate of the performance of such a system from the outputs of the management model obtained by simulation for different periods of 30 years. We will explore how the estimated performance depends on the model chosen to represent the current management system, and more specifically how the strategy used to optimize the management is developed. To this end, we will propose three management models based on three types of strategies, obtained for different degrees of predictability of future inflows and constraints. For these simulations, the impact models require meteorological forcing scenarios at watershed scale (eg hydrological model, model of water use model of resource management). These scenarios can be obtained by statistical downscaling methods (SDM), on the basis of large-scale simulations of global climate models. Finally, we will evaluate the uncertainties associated with the two types of models and will estimate their relative contributions to the overall uncertainty. We have used this scenario from different GCM/SDM simulations over the period 1860-2100 obtained within the RIWER2030 project. We show that these two sources of uncertainty are of the same order of magnitude estimate of changes in performance.

Les retenues collinaires connaissent un essor dans les zones semi-arides pour leur capacité à réduire l'érosion et l'envasement de barrages, et à mobiliser des ressources pour la petite agriculture. Face aux incertitudes sur la faible valorisation de ces ressources et au manque de données sur le potentiel hydrique de ces aménagements, les disponibilités en eau de multiples retenues collinaires sont quantifiées à l'aide d'observations hydrologiques, modélisation numérique et télédétection. Un indice MNDWI appliqué à 546 images Landsat et combiné avec un modèle GR4J+bilan hydrique à l'aide d'un filtre de Kalman d'ensemble est développé pour estimer les disponibilités en eau entre 1999 et 2014 de 50 retenues dans le bassin amont du Merguellil, Tunisie Centrale. Les erreurs sur la disponibilité moyenne journalière sont de l'ordre de 10 000 m3 sur des retenues aux capacités initiales variant de 20 000 m3 à plus de 1 000 000 m3 et permirent de quantifier et caractériser le potentiel hydrique de chaque retenue en saison sèche. En parallèle, la combinaison d'inventaires, d'enquêtes agricoles et entretiens ethnographiques permit de recenser l'hétérogénéité des pratiques, caractériser les bénéfices des retenues et éclairer les contraintes additionnelles freinant l'exploitation agricole. Au delà de prélèvements limités, cette approche multi-échelle permet d'apporter des éclairages sur la diversification des pratiques agricoles, sur les bénéfices indirects (citernes, élevage, recharge de puits), et sur l'intérêt porté par les riverains pour cette ressource, au sens large du terme. La confrontation entre les pratiques et le potentiel hydrologique confirme que la disponibilité en eau est un facteur limitant sur 80% des retenues mais rarement suffisant pour expliquer les disparités inter et intra retenues observées. La majorité des agriculteurs ont été inhibés par des problèmes d'accès à l'eau (d'ordre économique mais également politique) et ne sont pas équipés de stratégies permettant de composer avec la forte variabilité. Les quelques succès recensés sont le fruit d'entreprises individuelles, possédant un capital et une résilience économique, leur permettant notamment de surmonter les pénuries à l'aide d'autres ressources économiques (pour acheter des citernes) ou physiques (accès à d'autres points d'eau). Une approche intégrée et un appui sur le long terme de l'état auraient pu favoriser un développement plus large et équitable des ressources. Au vu des capacités limitées et des sécheresses durables, les retenues collinaires dans ce contexte climatique doivent cependant maintenir leur objectif initial d'irrigation de complément et non chercher à soutenir une intensification à plus grande échelle de l'agriculture. / Small reservoirs and other water and soil conservation techniques have become increasingly widespread across semi-arid regions, due to their ability to reduce transportation of eroded soil and harvest scarce and unreliable rainfall for local users. Revealing diverse but often limited levels of agricultural water use, the reasons behind these were explored based on assessments of water availability, practices and associated drivers upscaled across 50 small reservoirs in the Upper Merguellil catchment (Central Tunisia). MNDWI on 546 treated Landsat images over 1999-2014 were used in combination with extensive field data to develop and validate water availability assessments for all reservoirs. An Ensemble Kalman Filter approach was used to combine remotely sensed surface area with a GR4J-water balance model and notably reduce runoff uncertainties arising from highly variable and localised rainfall intensities. These notably reduced mean annual availability RMSE to the order of 10 000 m3 on lakes where initial capacities vary between 20 000 m3 and over 1 000 000 m3, and identified the potential of each lake to support agriculture during the dry season.In parallel, rapid surveys, quantitative questionnaires and semi directed interviews were used to identify water uses and socio economic and institutional drivers influencing the smallholder livelihoods around these reservoirs. Using multi-stage samples of farmers allowed to progressively narrow and refine the analysis which were then upscaled based on typologies of lakes. Results confirmed withdrawals remained limited and focussed essentially on the occasional watering of fruit trees. On a handful of lakes, water resources were a limiting factor but rarely a sufficient factor to explain the heterogeneous water uses observed around reservoirs. Most farmers were not equipped with the suitable capabilities to increase their withdrawals as a result of problems over pumps, water access and conflicts, compounded through limited and short term government assistance. Individual successes were observed as a result of farmers possessing adequate economic resilience and/or means to secure alternate water supplies during dry spells. Faced with limited available storage capacities and prolonged droughts, small reservoirs must in this climatic context retain their supplementary irrigation focus and not strive to support widespread intensification of practices.