81 |
Globalização financeira e integração de mercados financeiros nacionais / Financial globalization and integration of national financial marketsMirandola, Carlos Maurício Sakata 14 June 2010 (has links)
O presente estudo tem dois objetivos. O primeiro (1) é substantivo: contribuir com o debate sobre globalização financeira, ajudando a nele incorporar uma dimensão que parecia um pouco fora de foco em diversas discussões a dimensão jurídico-institucional empírica. O segundo (2) é metodológico, e não se relaciona diretamente com o objeto da pesquisa: ajudar a incorporar ao estudo do direito no Brasil a utilização de certas técnicas empíricas que permitiriam o exercício mais freqüente do que se será chamado aqui de ceticismo esclarecido pela empiria o salutar questionamento de afirmações doutrinais peremptórias com o auxílio de evidência empírica. Em relação ao objetivo (1), apresenta-se a seguinte tese. A globalização financeira é produto de diversos processos heterogêneos de cooperação internacional, políticas governamentais, reformas legislativas e estratégias políticas. Tais processos têm determinantes diversos, e objetivos variados, não apenas liberalização. De fato, mera liberalização unilateral não daria suporte suficiente ao aumento de fluxos financeiros transfronteiriços a globalização só pôde e só pode ocorrer em vista da criação de uma diversidade de estruturas internacionais, incluídas aí as bilaterais, plurilaterais e multilaterais. Estas resultaram em uma densa malha jurídico-institucional que, para ser criada, demandou mudanças por diversas vezes dolorosas e custosas aos países que as implantaram, assim como grandes esforços de negociação. Somente porque existe essa malha jurídica, cuja origem é a atividade política dos governos nacionais, é que investidores e empresas financeiras puderam e podem cruzar fronteiras, deter ativos no estrangeiro, e fazê-los circular em nível global. A globalização é resultado, não da abdicação e retração dos Estados, mas do ativo engajamento de seus governos na persecução de objetivos de política pública. Trata-se, portanto, de uma reação a interpretações concorrentes, segundo as quais a globalização financeira estaria sendo causada pela retração dos Estados Nacionais, que estariam se retirando da atividade regulatória, de forma geral, e da regulação das finanças, de formas mais específicas. A primeira parte consiste de dois capítulos discutindo os arranjos jurídico-institucionais que geraram a globalização financeira. A metodologia utilizada foi primordialmente qualitativa. Realizaram-se reconstruções institucionais comparadas, discutindo a evolução de certos arranjos de governança do sistema financeiro. Dois conjuntos de análises de casos foram realizados: (a) uma sobre a formação comparada de Sistemas Financeiros Nacionais, e (b) outra sobre processos comparados de integração financeira. A segunda parte consiste de um capítulo discutindo correlações entre indicadores econômicos e processos de globalização financeira. Aplicaram-se métodos econométricos sobre uma grande base de dados reunida e criada exclusivamente para esta pesquisa. / This study has two objectives. The first (1) is substantive: to contribute to the debate on globalization by helping to incorporate to it a dimension that has been somewhat left aside in many discussions the legal-institutional dimension. The second (2) is methodological, and not directly related to the subject of research: to help incorporating to the study of law in Brazil the use of certain empirical techniques that allow the exercise of what can be called a skepticism enlightened by the empiricism - the healthy questioning of doctrinal statements with the aid of empirical evidence. In relation of (1), the following thesis is advanced. Financial globalization is the product of several heterogeneous processes of international cooperation, government policies, legislative reforms and legal strategies. These processes have several determinants, and varied objectives, not just liberalization. In fact, a mere unilateral liberalization process would not give enough support to increase cross-border financial flows - globalization could only and may only occur in view of a diversity of international structures, including bilateral, plurilateral and multilateral agreements. These resulted in a dense mesh of legal and institutional structures, that to be created, demanded changes several times painful and costly to the countries that have implemented, as well as major efforts to negotiate. Only because of such legal tissue, whose origin is the political activity of national governments, is that investors and financial institutions could and can cross borders, holding assets abroad, and circulate them globally. Globalization is the result, not the abdication of the retraction, but the active engagement of governments in their pursuit of public policy objectives. The thesis is therefore a reaction to competing interpretations, under which financial globalization was being caused by the retraction of nation states, they were withdrawing from regulatory activity, in general, and regulation of finance, more specific forms. The first part consists of two chapters discussing the legal and institutional arrangements that led to financial globalization. The methodology was primarily qualitative. There were institutional compared reconstructions, discussing the evolution of certain governance arrangements of the financial system. Two sets of case studies were conducted: (a) training on a comparison of national financial systems, and (b) the other on the comparative analysis of financial integration. The second part consists of a chapter discussing correlations between economic indicators and processes of financial globalization. Were applied econometric methods on a large database collected and created exclusively for this research.
|
82 |
O FMI, a política interna dos EUA e a crise da divida dos anos 80 / The IMF, the American domestic politics and the 1980\'s debt crisisCordeiro, Fábio Cereda 24 September 2010 (has links)
Esta pesquisa investiga os fatores de política doméstica que motivam os Estados a delegar determinados temas a organizações internacionais. Com base na abordagem de principal-agente aplicada à delegação internacional, o estudo de caso sustenta que a dinâmica da política doméstica norte-americana foi um determinante importante da delegação da crise da dívida dos anos 80 para o Fundo Monetário Internacional. A hipótese se baseia no argumento teórico segundo o qual a delegação de um tema para uma organização internacional oferece ao ator que delega (em geral o Poder Executivo) uma oportunidade de aumentar sua influência sobre aquele tema em detrimento dos outros atores políticos domésticos. Nesta visão, a delegação pode aumentar a influência do Poder Executivo ao deslocar o poder de agenda sobre o tema para a organização internacional, reduzir o número de pontos de decisão doméstica, criar assimetrias de informação e prover fontes adicionais de legitimidade para as posições do Executivo. Quanto mais agudo for o conflito doméstico sobre um tema, maior será o incentivo para o Poder Executivo delegá-lo a uma organização internacional. Este estudo sustenta que a crise da dívida dos anos 80 foi essencialmente uma crise bancária, e como tal poderia ter sido tratada exclusivamente no nível doméstico norte-americano. A pesquisa apresenta evidências de que, ao enquadrar a crise como um problema de política internacional e delegá-la ao FMI, o Departamento do Tesouro dos EUA aumentou seu controle sobre o tema e reduziu a influência do Congresso, cujas visões e prioridades eram diferentes das do governo. O Executivo norte-americano, a despeito da desconfiança que inicialmente nutria com relação às instituições financeiras multilaterais, decidiu delegar o gerenciamento da crise para o FMI porque suas preferências estavam mais alinhadas com as preferências do Fundo do que com as preferências do Congresso e, portanto, as perdas de agências eram pequenas em comparação com o ganho obtido por impedir o Congresso de adquirir um papel ativo sobre a questão. / This research examines the domestic factors that contribute to certain political issues being delegated by states to international organizations. Based upon principal-agent theory, the case study argues that American domestic politics played a major role in the delegation of the 1980s debt crisis of developing countries to the International Monetary Fund. The hypothesis is based on the theoretical argument that delegation of an issue to an international organization offers the delegating actor (usually the executive branch) an opportunity to increase its influence on that issue vis-à-vis other domestic political actors. As such, delegating an issue to an international organization can increase the influence of the executive branch by shifting control of the agenda on the issue in favor of the delegating actor, decreasing the number of domestic decision points, creating information asymmetries and providing additional sources of legitimacy for the positions of the executive. The more intense the domestic conflict on an issue, the bigger the incentive for the executive branch to delegate the issue to an international organization. This study contends that the LDC debt crisis of the 1980s was essentially a banking crisis, and that as such could have been handled domestically by the US government. The research provides evidence that, by framing the crisis as an international problem and delegating it to the IMF, the US Department of the Treasury increased its control of the issue and reduced the influence of Congress, whose views and priorities were different from those of the Administration. The US Treasury, despite its initial mistrust of international financial institutions, chose to delegate the management of the crisis to the IMF because US Treasury preferences were more aligned with the preferences of the Fund than with the preferences of Congress, and thus agency losses were small in comparison with what was gained by preventing Congress from having an active role on the issue.
|
83 |
[en] THE ROLE OF INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND IN TROIKA POLICIES TO GREECE CRISIS: A NEOGRAMSCIAN CRITIC / [pt] O PAPEL DO FUNDO MONETÁRIO INTERNACIONAL NAS POLÍTICAS DA TROIKA EM RELAÇÃO À CRISE GREGA: UMA CRÍTICA NEOGRAMSCIANALUCAS SILVA FERREIRA NUNES 28 March 2019 (has links)
[pt] De acordo com a visão neogramsciana, instituições internacionais tem o papel de fortalecer hegemonias por serem propagadoras de ideologias e serem capazes de fortalecer a criação de consensos, como também de silenciar tentativas contra-hegemônicas. O Fundo Monetário Internacional, desde sua criação em 1944, vem auxiliando na sustentação de ideologias hegemônicas, sofrendo transformações e adaptando-se aos desafios que o sistema global de acumulação capitalista o impõe na medida em que crises emergem. Com crise da Grécia, o FMI após anos de críticas sobre seus programas de financiamento, foi requisitado em conjunto às instituições europeias Banco Central Europeu e Comissão Europeia, estabelecendo o que ficou conhecido como Troika para auxiliar nas políticas de reestruturação macroeconômica da Grécia. Entretanto, a hipótese que se investiga é de que, em vez da atuação do Fundo nas políticas da Troika tenha se apresentado como uma oportunidade para a instituição recuperar sua legitimidade internacional, na verdade, a instituição teve um papel reduzido, sendo utilizada como válvula de escape para fortalecer o discurso de austeridade na União Europeia na construção das condicionalidades dos programas de financiamento, que restringiram o conjunto de alternativas macroeconômicas da Grécia em concordância mais aos interesses europeus do que país. / [en] According to the Neogramscian thought, the role of international institutions is to strength hegemonies by being sponsors of ideologies and being able to strengthen the creation of consensus, and to silence counter-hegemonic attempts as well. The International Monetary Fund, since its creation in 1944, has been helping to support hegemonic ideologies, undergoing transformations and adapting to the challenges that the global capitalist system imposes when accumulation crisis emerges. With the Greece s crisis, the IMF after years of criticism was asked jointly work with European Central Bank and European Commission, establishing what became known as Troika to assist in Greece s macroeconomic restructuring policies. However, the hypothesis being investigated is that instead of the Fund s actions in the Troika s policies presented as an opportunity for the institution to recover its international legitimacy, in fact the institution played a reduced role, being used as a space goat to strengthen the austerity discourse in the European Union for implementation of the conditionalities in the financial programs, that restricted the set of macroeconomic alternatives of Greece more in accordance with the European interests than the country itself.
|
84 |
The nearby young [special character] Chamaeleontis cluster as a laboratory for star formation and evolutionLyo, A-Ran, Physical, Environmental & Mathematical Sciences, Australian Defence Force Academy, UNSW January 2004 (has links)
[Special characters cannot be displayed. Please see the pdf version of the Abstract for an accurate reproduction.] We studied the circumstellar discs, the initial mass function (IMF), mass distribution, binarity and the fundamental properties of the [special character] 9 Myr-old pre-main sequence (PMS) [special character] Chamaeleontis cluster. Using JHKL colour-colour and colour-excess diagrams, we found the circumstellar disc fraction to be [special character] 0.60 among the late-type members. Four stars with [special character] (K - L) > 0.4 were identified as experiencing ongoing accretion which was later confirmed by high-resolution spectroscopic study. Quantitative analysis of the H[special character] profiles found accretion in these four stars at rates comparable to that of two members of the similarly-aged TW Hydrae Association (TWA); rates 1 - 3 orders of magnitude lower than in younger classical T Tauri stars. Together these results suggest that, while the mass accretion rate decreases with age, PMS stars can retain their inner discs for [special character] 10 Myr. An optical photometric survey spanning 1.3 ?? 1.3 pc added two low-mass stars to the cluster inventory. Together with other recent surveys the population is likely to be significantly complete for primaries with masses M > 0.15M[special character]. The cluster now consists of 18 primaries and 9 confirmed and candidate secondaries, with [special character] 2-4 times higher multiplicity than seen in field dwarfs. The cluster IMF is consistent with that of rich young clusters and field stars. By extending the IMF to lower masses, we predict 20-29 low-mass stars and brown dwarfs may remain undiscovered. From study of the cluster???s spatial and mass distribution, we find the [special character] Cha cluster has significant mass segregation, with > 50 per cent of the stellar mass residing within the central 0.17 pc. Lastly we classified members of the cluster with low-resolution spectra, providing information about the fundamental properties of the PMS stars by comparison to standard dwarfs. Broadband VRI colours and pseudocontinuum indices derived for the cluster stars are indistinguishable from dwarfs at visual and red wavelengths. This suggests the temperature sequence for the PMS [special character] Cha cluster is similar to that of the dwarf sequence. Narrow-band spectral indices for the [special character] Cha cluster possibly indicate higher metallicity and strongly indicate lower surface gravity than the dwarf indices.
|
85 |
東亞金融穩定機制的倡議與安排 / Initiatives and arrangements of the financial stability mechanism in East Asia蕭倩琳, Hsiao, Chien Lin Unknown Date (has links)
1997年亞洲發生金融風暴以來,東亞各國雖然接受了IMF的援助,但是卻因為IMF援助無法即時性以及限制條件過多,引發了各國的反彈,ASEAN+3希望在未來不再是依賴國際組織的援助,而是靠區域自身的力量提供短期流動性資金互助,因此東亞各國往區域整合的路徑邁進。
從1997年「馬尼拉架構」、日本提出的「新宮澤倡議」到2000年的「清邁倡議」、2010年的「多邊清邁協議」等,ASEAN+3各國正一步步的建立提供短期流動性資金的區域金融穩定機制。除了流動性資金之外,ASEAN+3也希望區域內的金融市場能夠穩定發展,保留住豐沛的外匯儲備,因此也設立了「亞洲債券基金」。
東亞金融穩定機制持續且穩定的發展中,但這些機制無法完全獨立仍和IMF連結,不僅如此,這些機制沒有一個獨立的監督機制,更沒有將機制統籌,降低了其功能性。雖然2010年正式生效的「多邊清邁協議」被視為ASEAN+3金融穩定機制的一個里程碑,但是包含運用超過20%的資金需要IMF同義、仍未設立獨立監督機制等問題都需要解決。另外,東亞在1997年之後未曾再發生金融危機,因此這些機制實際的作用仍然需要時間考驗。
|
86 |
Political equality and global poverty: an alternative egalitarian approach to distributive justiceSanyal, Sagar January 2009 (has links)
I argue that existing views in the political equality debate are inadequate.
I propose an alternative approach to equality and argue its superiority to
the competing approaches. I apply the approach to some issues in global
justice relating to global poverty and to the inability of some countries to
develop as they would like. In this connection I discuss institutions of
international trade, sovereign debt and global reserves and I focus
particularly on the WTO, IMF and World Bank.
|
87 |
IMF的援俄計劃與俄羅斯政經發展關係之研究(1992-1999) / The Interacting Relationships between the IMF’s Aid Program and Russia's Political and Economic Developments張瀚心, Chang, Han-Shin Unknown Date (has links)
1991年底蘇聯的解體,使得俄羅斯的政治體制由一黨專政走向多元民主,其經濟體制也從過去以社會主義所有制轉變為市場經濟體制。在俄羅斯進行政經轉型的初期,國際貨幣基金會(International Monetary Fund;以下均簡稱為IMF)以龐大的金援為後盾,介入俄羅斯的政經發展,對俄羅斯的制度抉擇有著深遠的影響。因此,本文旨在透過剖析IMF1992年至1999年間援俄計劃的形成過程、內容、俄羅斯決策當局對IMF援俄計劃的回應,以及影響俄羅斯決策當局的因素,探究IMF援俄計劃與俄羅斯政經發展的互動關係。
本論文主要採用「系統理論」(the Systems Theory)的研究途徑,探討IMF的援俄計劃與俄羅斯政經發展的互動關係。其中,以「議價模式」(the Bargaining Model)說明在IMF援俄計劃的形成過程中,IMF的組織成員,主導IMF政策走向的美國、英國等已開發國家,以及俄羅斯當局三者的角力過程。最後,再以「克里姆林宮政治研究途徑」(Kremlin Politics approach)敘探俄羅斯決策當局回應IMF要求時的考量因素。在此研究架構下,本論文第一章除說明研究動機與目的、研究架構與途徑、研究限制外,還介紹與研究題目相關的文獻,並指出過去文獻所未考量之處,以做為論文研究之基礎;第二章續述IMF的運作概況,探討影響IMF援俄計劃形成的可能因素;第三章闡述俄羅斯的初始條件、IMF援俄計劃的內容、俄羅斯當局的回應,以及IMF援俄計劃所帶來的成效與弊端;第四章則論述1992年至1999年俄羅斯的政經發展,並指出IMF的援俄計劃對俄羅斯政經發展的影響;第五章為結論。
本論文的結論是,雖然俄羅斯的政經發展會相互影響,但是對俄羅斯的決策當局而言,政治的穩固比經濟發展路線的選擇更為重要。IMF在1992年至1999年間許多關鍵時刻對葉爾欽表示支持,使葉爾欽在多次的政爭中仍得以保有政權;而葉爾欽為獲得IMF的金援,自然會推動其所要求的市場經濟體制。因此,儘管俄羅斯的經濟改革迭有波折,但是市場經濟體制在俄羅斯生根已是無庸置疑。 / The collapse of the Soviet Union has led Russia from one-party dictatorship to plural democracy in politics and from socialistic ownership to free-market system in economy. During the initial period of Russia’s political and economical transformation, International Monetary Fund, backed up by the huge-amount loans, interfered with Russia’s political and economical developments, giving impact upon the choice of institutions in Russia. Therefore, this thesis is aimed to understand the interacting relationships between IMF’s aid program and Russia’s political and economical developments, by analyzing the forming process and content of IMF’s aid program toward Russia from 1992-9, the response of the Russian authorities toward IMF’s aid program, and the factors that influenced the Russian authorities to make their policies.
The thesis adopts the Systems Theory as its research approach to discuss the interacting relationships between the IMF’s aid program and Russia’s political and economical developments. Meanwhile, I use the “Bargaining Model” to explain the wrestling process among IMF’s staff and personnel, the countries dominating IMF’s direction of policies, like the US and the UK, and the Russian authorities. Finally, I further focus on the factors that the Russian authorities considered in response to IMF’s demands. The first chapter includes the research motives and objectives, the research frameworks and approaches, the research restrictions, and the relevant literature. The second one mentions the general situation of IMF and the factors that may influence the forming of the IMF’s aid program toward Russia. The third one specifies the initial conditions in Russia, the content of the IMF’s aid program, the Russian authorities’ responses, and the effect and the problems that the IMF’s aid program may bring out. The fourth one points out the impact that the IMF’s aid program put upon the Russia’s political and economical developments. The fifth one is the conclusion.
The conclusion is that though politics and economy influence each other in Russia, the stable political situation is more important than the choice of economic developments for the Russian authorities. IMF’s support for Boris N. Yeltsin on many key occasions from 1992 to 1999, allowed him to retain his power. And Yeltsin naturally promoted the market economy that IMF required for getting its loan. Therefore, despite the continuing difficulties in Russia’s economic reform, it’s no doubt that the market economy has taken root in Russia.
|
88 |
The nearby young [special character] Chamaeleontis cluster as a laboratory for star formation and evolutionLyo, A-Ran, Physical, Environmental & Mathematical Sciences, Australian Defence Force Academy, UNSW January 2004 (has links)
[Special characters cannot be displayed. Please see the pdf version of the Abstract for an accurate reproduction.] We studied the circumstellar discs, the initial mass function (IMF), mass distribution, binarity and the fundamental properties of the [special character] 9 Myr-old pre-main sequence (PMS) [special character] Chamaeleontis cluster. Using JHKL colour-colour and colour-excess diagrams, we found the circumstellar disc fraction to be [special character] 0.60 among the late-type members. Four stars with [special character] (K - L) > 0.4 were identified as experiencing ongoing accretion which was later confirmed by high-resolution spectroscopic study. Quantitative analysis of the H[special character] profiles found accretion in these four stars at rates comparable to that of two members of the similarly-aged TW Hydrae Association (TWA); rates 1 - 3 orders of magnitude lower than in younger classical T Tauri stars. Together these results suggest that, while the mass accretion rate decreases with age, PMS stars can retain their inner discs for [special character] 10 Myr. An optical photometric survey spanning 1.3 ?? 1.3 pc added two low-mass stars to the cluster inventory. Together with other recent surveys the population is likely to be significantly complete for primaries with masses M > 0.15M[special character]. The cluster now consists of 18 primaries and 9 confirmed and candidate secondaries, with [special character] 2-4 times higher multiplicity than seen in field dwarfs. The cluster IMF is consistent with that of rich young clusters and field stars. By extending the IMF to lower masses, we predict 20-29 low-mass stars and brown dwarfs may remain undiscovered. From study of the cluster???s spatial and mass distribution, we find the [special character] Cha cluster has significant mass segregation, with > 50 per cent of the stellar mass residing within the central 0.17 pc. Lastly we classified members of the cluster with low-resolution spectra, providing information about the fundamental properties of the PMS stars by comparison to standard dwarfs. Broadband VRI colours and pseudocontinuum indices derived for the cluster stars are indistinguishable from dwarfs at visual and red wavelengths. This suggests the temperature sequence for the PMS [special character] Cha cluster is similar to that of the dwarf sequence. Narrow-band spectral indices for the [special character] Cha cluster possibly indicate higher metallicity and strongly indicate lower surface gravity than the dwarf indices.
|
89 |
Struktura, poloha a dynamika magnetopauzy / Structure, Location, and Dynamics of the MagnetopauseGrygorov, Kostiantyn January 2017 (has links)
Title: Structure, Location, and Dynamics of the Magnetopause Author: Kostiantyn Grygorov Department: Department of Surface and Plasma Science Supervisor: Doc. RNDr. Lubomír Přech, Dr., Department of Surface and Plasma Science e-mail address: Prech@mbox.troja.mff.cuni.cz Abstract: The magnetopause is the key region where the collisionless plasma from the Sun penetrates into the Earth's magnetosphere. A transfer of the plasma, momentum, and energy across the magnetopause is highly variable and depends on solar wind conditions, similarly as the magnetopause location. This thesis addresses the solar wind-magnetosphere interaction in two different regions: the dayside equatorial magnetopause and the far magnetotail. In the first part of the thesis, we present a detailed analysis of the interplanetary (IP) shock propa- gation through the solar wind, its impact on the substorm development and its influence on the far magnetotail. We demonstrate that the change of the solar wind VZ component across the shock creates a huge kink that propagates along the tail. The second part of the thesis is devoted to the influence of prolonged intervals of a radial interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) on the dayside magnetopause. The statistical analysis of the equatorial magnetopause shape and location based on THEMIS observations...
|
90 |
Fiscal adjustment, conditionality and politics in IMF programsLadeira, Carlos Eduardo de Almeida 14 April 2015 (has links)
Submitted by carlos ladeira (kaduladeira@yahoo.com.br) on 2015-04-23T16:57:41Z
No. of bitstreams: 1
Dissertacao Carlos.pdf: 575576 bytes, checksum: f4689fd7125704fc0d02cea6a72afd85 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Vera Lúcia Mourão (vera.mourao@fgv.br) on 2015-04-23T17:40:57Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1
Dissertacao Carlos.pdf: 575576 bytes, checksum: f4689fd7125704fc0d02cea6a72afd85 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2015-04-23T17:42:47Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1
Dissertacao Carlos.pdf: 575576 bytes, checksum: f4689fd7125704fc0d02cea6a72afd85 (MD5)
Previous issue date: 2015-04-14 / A common feature in programs of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is the use of conditionalities, macroeconomic and structural measures that a requesting country should adopt to obtain an assistance package. The objective of this work is to conduct an empirical analysis of the economic and political determinants of such conditionalities. In particular, our main contribution consists in the development of a new measure of conditionality, fiscal adjustment, and its comparison with the most used in the literature, the number of conditions. We choose fiscal adjustment because it is an adequate proxy for program austerity, since its implementation carries economic and political costs. In the empirical exercise, we use data from 184 programs in the period of 1999 and 2012, and estimate how our two measures of conditionalities respond to the economic and political factors. Our results suggest that they are quite different. The main determinant of the number of conditions is the political proximity of the borrowing country to the Fund’s major shareholders, the members of G5. On the other hand, the main determinant of fiscal adjustment is the size of the government fiscal deficit. Finally, we did not find correlation between the size of fiscal adjustment and the number of conditions. These results suggest that the analysis of the content of IMF programs should take into account the different measures of agreed conditionality. / Uma característica comum nos programas do Fundo Monetário Internacional (FMI) é a utilização de condicionalidades, medidas macroeconômicas e estruturais que o país demandante deve adotar para obter um pacote de assistência. Neste trabalho, o objetivo é conduzir uma análise empírica dos determinantes econômicos e políticos das condicionalidades. Em particular, nossa principal contribuição consiste na construção de uma nova medida de condicionalidade, o ajuste fiscal, e a comparação desta com a mais utilizada na literatura, qual seja, o número de condicionalidades. Escolhemos o ajuste fiscal pois trata-se de uma medida adequada da austeridade de um programa, já que sua implementação acarreta custos econômicos e políticos para o país. No exercício empírico, utilizamos dados de 184 programas no período de 1999 a 2012, e estimamos como as nossas duas medidas de condicionalidades respondem aos fatores econômicos e políticos. Nossos resultados indicam que elas são de fato diferentes. Por um lado, o principal determinante do número de condicionalidades é a proximidade política do país tomador do empréstimo com os principais membros do Fundo, os países do G5. Por outro, a principal motivação do ajuste fiscal é o tamanho do déficit do governo. Por fim, não encontramos correlação entre o tamanho do ajuste fiscal e o número de condicionalidades. Tais resultados sugerem que a análise dos termos dos programas do FMI deve levar em conta os diferentes tipos de condicionalidades que são acordadas.
|
Page generated in 0.3945 seconds