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Vliv vývoje úrokových sazeb na poptávku po rodinných domech a bytech v okrese Hodonín / Effect of movements in interest rates on demand for houses and apartments in the Hodonín districtBöhmová, Sabina January 2015 (has links)
The aim of the thesis is to assess the impact of interest rate developments on the demand for family homes and apartments in the District of Hodonín. Whether or not the influence is assessed by using the database of family houses and flats in the district by the year 2012. Part of the thesis is also the calculation of the average cost of the framework from a State property and the size of the municipality in which the property is situated, and at the same time, it is examined whether occurs due to lower interest rates to the growth of real estate prices. The necessary information about the level of interest rates for each month and the fixation period are listed from the Czech National Bank. Supporting documents for processing the database actually realized sales from 2012 to provide real estate agents real estate real estate agent REMAX and GAIA.
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The negative intereste rate’s effect on the real estate market and its participents / Den negativa räntans effekter på fastighetsmarknaden och dess aktörerIsmail, Safir, Kristola Truc, Axel January 2016 (has links)
When the Riksbank took the historic decision to cut the repo rate below zero, forecast at the same time was that it would be back on positive ground by the end of 2016. Now that the repo rate is adjusted down further Riksbank predicts that interest rates will remain negative until at least the turn of the year 2017-2018. The phenomenon of "negative interest rate" has thus become more than just the short paranthesis as it was initially meant to be. The purpose of this paper is therefore to examine how the low interest rates in general, and the negative interest rate in particular, affects the real estate market and its participants. Furthermore, it is investigated whether some participants relate to the negative interest rate differently than others, and if their expectations of the interest rate and the market's future development are different. The negative interest rate is a highly topical and new phenomenon and this kind of study has not been done before. The work is mainly built on qualitative interviews founded on a phenomenographical research approach, which aims to, based on an expert but heterogeneous respondent group, try to draw general conclusions on the basis of the answers received. Representatives from real estate funds, listed real estate companies, institutional real estate company, KTH, a real estate consultant and a bank were interviewed, in order to highlight the phenomenon from as many perspectives as possible. Quantitative surveys are also used to enhance reliability of the essay and its internal validity. The obtained empirical data shows that the only direct effect that the negative interest rates has is that the companies using leverage get a "mismatch" when they tie their interest rates with interest rate swaps- This is due to the STIBOR-floor that banks have put in place, which basically means they get higher interest costs, the more negative the interest rate is. Further, listed property companies are considered to be the investor category that has benefited most from low interest rate environment, this because of their relatively high leverage ratios, but also as they have effectively been able to use the capital market as an alternative source of funding. The low interest rates have meant that property values have risen rapidly, but all increases are not considered as justified. As for the respondents’ approach towards the market, it can be stated that the listed real estate companies have begun to position themselves for a possible touchdown on the market while the unleveraged institutional investors, continued to seek higher real estate exposure. In terms of the respondents’ future expectation about interest rate developments, it is clear from the response that the majority expect that low interest rates may be for a while but should then return to more normal levels, while the other two believed that the low interest rates instead may become the new normal. / När Riksbanken tog det historiska beslutet att sänka reporäntan under nollstrecket prognostiserades samtidigt att densamma skulle vara tillbaka på positiv mark redan i slutet av 2016. När nu reporäntan justerats ner ytterligare spår Riksbanken att räntan kommer att vara fortsatt negativ minst fram till årsskiftet 2017-2018. Fenomenet "minusränta" har således blivit mer än bara den korta parentes som det initialt var tänkt att vara. Uppsatsens syfte är följaktligen att undersöka på vilket sätt de låga räntorna i allmänhet, och den negativa räntan i synnerhet, inverkar på fastighetsmarknaden och dess aktörer. Vidare utreds huruvida vissa aktörer upplever/förhåller sig till den negativa räntan på annorlunda sätt än andra, samt ifall deras förväntingar om räntans och marknadens framtida utveckling skiljer sig åt. Minusräntan är ett högst aktuellt och nytt fenomen och denna typ av studie som belyser dess konsekvenser på fastighetsmarknaden har inte gjorts tidigare. Arbetet bygger främst på kvalitativa intervjuer baserade på en fenomenografisk forskningsansats, vilken syftar till att, utifrån en sakkunnig men heterogen respondentgrupp, försöka dra generella slutsatser med utgångspunkt i de mottagna svaren. Representanter från fastighetsfonder, börsnoterade fastighetsbolag, institutionellt ägda fastighetsföretag, KTH, en fastighetskonsult och en bank intervjuades för att belysa fenomenet ur så många perspektiv som möjligt. Kvantitativa enkäter används vidare för att stärka uppsatsens reliabilitet och dess inre validitet. Den erhållna empirin visar att den enda direkta effekten som just minusräntan har är att de belånade fastighetsaktörerna får en "missmatch" när de binder sina räntor med ränteswappar. Detta på grund av det STIBOR-golv som bankerna har infört, vilket i princip innebär att de får högre räntekostnader ju mer negativ räntan är. Vidare anses börsnoterade fastighetsbolag vara den investerarkategori som har gynnats mest av lågräntemiljön, detta delvis tack vare deras relativt höga belåningsgrader, men även då de effektivt har kunnat utnyttja kapitalmarknaden som alternativ finansieringskälla. De låga räntorna har inneburit att fastighetsvärdena snabbt har stigit, men alla höjningar anses inte vara lika befogade. Vad gäller aktörernas ställningstagande gentemot marknaden kan det fastläggas att de börsnoterade fastighetsbolagen har börjat positionera sig inför en eventuell sättning på marknaden medan de obelånade institutionella investerarna å sin sida fortsatt söker ökad fastighetsexponering. I fråga om respondenternas framtida förväntingar om räntans utveckling framgår av gensvaret att majoriteten förväntar sig att de låga räntorna kan bestå ett tag till för att sedan återgå till mer historiskt normala nivåer, medan de övriga två tror att de låga räntorna istället kan komma att bli det nya normala.
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The Effect of Macroeconomic Variables on Stock Market Returns in Ghana (2000-2013)Barnor, Charles 01 January 2014 (has links)
Variations in macroeconomic indicators affect the performance of the stock markets. In Ghana, although the performance of the Ghana Stock Exchange (GSE) has been affected by macroeconomic variables from January 2000 to December 2013, the mechanisms of these relationships have not been studied. The purpose of this research was to examine the relationships between selected macroeconomic variables and their effect on the stock market returns on the Ghana stock market. The research questions addressed whether macroeconomic variables had significant effect on stock market returns in Ghana within the specified period. The target sample was all 36 listed firms on the Ghana stock market. Data were obtained from the Bank of Ghana bulletins, the Ghana Statistical Service website, and the GSE website. Time-series data analysis was used to determine whether there was a statistically significant relationship between stock market returns and inflation rate, exchange rate, interest rate, and money supply. The findings revealed that interest rates and money supply had a significant negative effect on stock market returns; however, exchange rates had a significant positive effect on stock market returns. Moreover, inflation rate did not significantly affect stock market returns in Ghana. The implications for positive social change include improved knowledge about the effects of macroeconomic variables on stock returns that could guide policy makers and household agents to improve investment decisions, thus increasing the net worth of these economic agents.
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Konsekvenser av hushållens höga skuldsättning : Bostadslån ur banktjänstemäns perspektiv / Consequences of Households' High Indebtedness : Housing Loans from Bank Officials' PerspectiveBothin, Filippa, Fourén, Filippa January 2023 (has links)
Bostadspriserna har stigit markant under de senaste åren och till följd av detta har hushållen varit tvungna att ta på sig stora skulder. Svenska hushåll tar därför ständigt större lån och fler bostadslåntagare uppvisar högre skuldkvot och belåningsgrad än tidigare. Stigande inflation och ökade räntor resulterar i minskade ekonomiska marginaler för låntagare samt sociala konsekvenser. Hushållen har även blivit mer känsliga för risker, såsom förändringar i räntenivåer. Denna studie har till syfte att undersöka hur hög belåningen i samhället är idag och vilka konsekvenser som kan ses på kort och lång sikt. Privata bostadslån i Sverige studeras med fokus kring problematiken med hög skuldsättning. Detta görs genom banktjänstemäns syn på hushållens skuldkvot med hjälp av semistrukturerade intervjuer. Studien innefattar nio intervjuer med åtta svenska banker och en bankförening. Studiens resultat är relevant för svenska beslutsfattare, banker och hushåll, eftersom det ger insikt i vad som ökar riskexponeringen för de som tar bostadslån. Resultaten visar att Sverige ligger på rekordhöga nivåer vad gäller skuldsättning och att detta resulterar i flera konsekvenser. Hög skuldkvot leder till hög räntekänslighet och sårbarhet vilket kan strama åt hushållens ekonomi vid förändringar i penningpolitiken. Detta leder i sin tur till minskat konsumtionsutrymme, försämrad återbetalningsförmåga, minskad ekonomisk tillväxt, finansiell instabilitet, fler konkurser och högre arbetslöshet. / Housing prices have risen significantly in recent years and as a result, households have had to take on large debts. Swedish households are therefore constantly taking out larger loans, and more mortgage borrowers show a higher debt-to-income ratio and loan-to-value ratio than before. Rising inflation and increased interest rates result in reduced financial margins for borrowers and social consequences. Households have also become more sensitive to risks, such as changes in interest rates. The purpose of this study is to investigate how high the level of debt in society is today and what consequences can be foreseen in the short and long term. Private housing loans in Sweden are studied with focus on problems related to high indebtedness. This is done through the perspective of bank employees on households' debt-to-income ratio, using semi-structured interviews. The study includes nine interviews with eight Swedish banks and one banking association. The results of this study are relevant for Swedish decision-makers, banks, and households, as they provide insight into what increases risk exposure for those taking out home loans. The results show that Sweden is at record high levels in terms of indebtedness, and this implies several consequences. A high debt-to-income ratio leads to high interest rate sensitivity and vulnerability, which can tighten the finances of households in case of changes in monetary policy. This, in turn, leads to a reduced space for consumption, worsened repayment ability, reduced economic growth, financial instability, more bankruptcies, and higher unemployment.
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A Journey Through the World of Compression with IRS Contracts / En resa genom kompressionens värld med IRS kontraktHjalmarsson, Karl January 2023 (has links)
By participating in the market a party buys and sells different types of contracts resulting in the collection of contracts growing. With a large collection of contracts come the hurdles of an increasing operational cost, a harder-to-manage order book, and an increase in counterparty risk. To combat these problems we set out to minimize the size and quantity of contracts by performing what is called a compression. We have looked into three different types of compression methods for interest rate swap contracts. One method is specialized for central clearing, Coupon Blending, and two methods for bilateral clearing, Closed Loops, and the Network Simplex Method. By using Monte Carlo Simulations, all three methods could be compared to one another to conclude the significant findings. The clear winner for centrally cleared contracts was Coupon Blending which could terminate over 92% of the contracts, and reduce the total absolute size of the contracts by over 75%. Network Simplex came in as a close second which could also reduce the total absolute size of the contracts by over 75% but only terminate 86%. Coupon Blending and Network Simplex, both had very similar accuracy in their compression. However, NetworkSimplex performed better at keeping the system’s total risk intact. For bilateral clearing, NetworkSimplex performed the best where the Closed Loops strategy was not an optimized approach. / Genom att delta i den finansiella marknaden köper och säljer en participant olika sorters kontrakt vilket resulterar i att samlingen av kontrakt växer. Med en ständigt växande samling av kontrakt skapas problem som, att kostnaden för hantering ökar, att orderbokens hantering blir svårare och en ökad risk för konkurs. För att undvika dessa problem kan man utföra kompression vilket är att försöka reducera kontrakten i antal och storlek. Vi har studerat tre olika typer av kompressionsstrategier för kompression av ränteswappar. Den första strategin är Coupon Blending som är specialiserad för central clearing medan de två andra, Closed Loops och Network Simplex Metoden är utvecklade för bilateral clearing. Genom att använda Monte Carlo Simuleringar på alla tre strategier kunde vi dra slutsatser kring deras egenskaper och effektivitet. Den bästa strategin var Coupon Blending som kunde terminera över 92% av alla kontrakt, och samtidigt reducera den totala absoluta storleken på kontrakten med 75%. Network Simplex presterade också bra och kunde reducera den totala absoluta storleken på kontrakten med 75% och terminera 86% av kontrakten. Coupon Blending och Network Simplex hade bägge en liknande noggrannhet, men Network Simplex var något bättre på att hålla systemets totala risk intakt. För bilateral clearing presterade Network Simplex bäst där Closed Loops strategin inte var tillräckligt optimerad.
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How does unexpected news about employment affect the exchange rate?Aspemo, Otto, Grönblad, Joel January 2023 (has links)
The research conducted intends to examine how unexpected changes in employment may affect both exchange rates and interest rates. The results used in the analysis are extracted by running two ordinary least squares regressions with data structured as an unbalanced panel. Furthermore, a two stage least squares regression has been constructed to evaluate how interest rates, instrumented by unexpected outcomes of employment, affect exchange rates through the uncovered interest rate parity condition (UIP). In contradiction to the UIP, relative percentual changes in interest rates had no effect on exchange rates, hence no support could be presented for a causative relationship between unexpected changes in employment and exchange rate movements. In line with previous studies, results are thought to lack significance due to exchange rate movements being measured as the total intraday change, constituting too long of an interval.
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Makroekonomiska faktorers påverkan på bostadsbyggandet : En studie om makroekonomiska nyckeltal med fokus på bostadsproduktionen och alternativa lösningar / The impact of macroeconomic factors on the housing productionHussein Luay, Ali, Jonsson, Manfred January 2020 (has links)
Det råder inga tvivel om att det finns en bostadsproblematik i Sverige, flertalet studier har bekräftat att människors avsaknad av bostäder är ett problem som bara växer sig starkare med tiden. Problematikens uppkomst och de breda arsenalet av aspekter som påverkar den är komplext. I den här studien är den huvudsaklig aspekten i fokus makroekonomin. Då författarna saknar tillförlitlig erfarenhet inom ämnet ifråga har tre böcker använts för kunskapsinsamling. Varpå “Macroeconomics: Principles, problems and policies” & “Principles of macroeconomics” har använts för den grundläggande förståelsen och “A Concise Guide to Macroeconomics: What Managers, Executives, and Students Need to Know” använts som ett uppslagsverk för en koncis och korrekt repetition av terminologin. Tre olika teorier kring makroekonomi är formulerade och kopplade till uppsatsens frågeställning. Teorierna diskuteras även utefter uppsatsens gång tillsammans med de svarrespondenterna angav under sina respektive intervjuer. Så även tillförlitligheten kring metodiken och de resultat som erhölls. Slutligen konstateras konsekvenser den rådande pandemin har på bostadsproduktionen tillsammans med betonandet av vikten i att bibehålla en stabil ekonomisk situation för att motivera högre risktagande och därmed bättre resultat i form av bostadsbyggande. / Whether there is a housing problem in Sweden it no longer a topic of debate, as it has been stated by several studies for generations that the lack of homes is only becoming an increasingly difficult problem. The nature of the issues stems from several different aspects of the nation where macroeconomics is the main aspect observed during this project. Since the writers lack reliable experience in the field, they turned to three books for enlightenment, where “Macroeconomics: Principles, problems and policies” & “Principles of macroeconomics” are read to get an understanding for the topic whilst “A Concise Guide to Macroeconomics: What Managers, Executives, and Students Need to Know” is used as an encyclopedia for a quick and concise recollection.Three different theories of microeconomic nature are described and connected to the problem at hand and discussed in later paragraphs. With a three-pronged approach to gathering data, the analysts produced a result that equates unemployment rates and interest rates to the production of houses. Further discussions are made regarding the legitimacy of the results and the methodology, whilst comparing the theories with the responses from conducted interviews. Conclusively, points are made about the consequences from the current pandemic, whilst also insisting that maintaining a stable economic situation is the most effortless manner to motivate higher risk taking and consequently better results in the form om housing construction.
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Impact of Interest Rate Increase on Stockholm’s Households / Räntehöjnings påverkan på Stockholms hushållLaab, William, Pataky, Adam January 2019 (has links)
The housing prices have increased in a rapid pace in Stockholm the past decades. Simultaneously, the interest rates have decreased drastically, since the global financial crisis in 2008. The two movements combined have led to higher debt among Swedish households and especially in the capital, Stockholm. This article presents a quantitative research investigating which types of households, based on their social economic profile, will be mostly affected by an increased mortgage rate. The DSR is calculated for each HH, taking in account the amortization regulations introduced in 2016 and 2018. By doing a regression analysis using the DSR as the dependent variable and the socioeconomic factors as independent variables, we find that income and age are the variables with highest significance describing the DSR. Additionally, we investigate the socioeconomic profile of those households that have the highest DSR increment, based on specific cluster made by Insightone. The findings of the paper suggest that four out of 44 types of families have exceptionally higher exposure to the two different mortgage-rate increase scenarios. Three of these four family clusters are young, have children, high income and lives in houses. The remaining family cluster is young, have no children, has low income but is highly educated. / Bostadspriserna har ökat snabbt de senaste åren i Stockholm. Samtidigt har räntan sjunkit jämfört med de nivåerna som var under finanskrisen 2008. Dessa två faktorer kombinerade med varandra har lett till högra bolån bland det svenska folket och främst för de som bor i Stockholm. Denna artikel är en kvantitativ studie som undersöker vilka typer av hushåll baserad på deras socioekonomiska profil som påverkas mest av en ökad bolåneränta. Först räknade vi ut skuldsättningsgrad för varje hushåll. I dessa beräkningar tog vi hänsyn till de nya amorteringskraven som har införts från 206 och framåt. Därefter gjorde vi en regressionsanalys där vårt resultat blev att inkomst, ålder och amortering är de faktorer som påverkar skuldsättningsgrad mest. Senare undersöker vi hur den typiska familjen ser ut där resultatet blev att unga, utan barn, låg inkomst och högutbildade är de som påverkas mest av en ökad bolåneränta.
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Fastighetsbolagens beslutsfattande : Fastighetsbolagens förändringar av beslut för investeringar och förvaltning samt bankerskreditgivning vid ett ökat räntelägeNilsson, Petter, Ahlgren, Oliver January 2022 (has links)
The purpose of the thesis is to describe how decisions related to investments and propertymanagement change for real estate companies with an increased interest rate, as well asbanks' lending to real estate companies. To achieve the purpose of the study, a qualitative method was conducted through semistructured interviews with each respondent. The empirical material has interwoven with thetheoretical frame of reference. Thus, an abductive research approach has been used. The analysis consists of interpretations of the empirical data covered by the thesis. Resultsand of the empirical data are linked to the thesis. The results of the analysis showed changesin the thesis in three areas: Changes in decisions in property management and propertyinvestments in the event of an increased interest rate situation. As well as the bank's lendingfor real estate companies in the event of an increased interest rate situation. The chapter alsoforms the basis for the thesis' later conclusions The conclusions that have been established from studies are that real estate companies usesmany different types of security measures to minimize the sensitivity to an increased interestrate situation. In property management operations, long-term measures are taken to ensurecash flow. In the short term, it can be indirectly affected. Investment decisions are changedby re-prioritizing real estate companies' investment planning because of the returnrequirements. The conclusion for how the banks' lending changes is that lending as a wholedecrease with an increased interest rate situation. This is not due to the banks, but is about thereal estate companies finding it more difficult to meet the assessment requirements
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Vysokofrekvenční Identifikace monetárních šoků ve Švédsku / High Frequency Identification of Monetary Policy Shocks in SwedenNěmčík, Erik January 2022 (has links)
Current effectiveness and functioning of one of the key instruments of monetary policy, the interest rate, has been debated around the world with an increasing intensity. Sweden, specifically, characterized by a recent low inflation period coupled with an experimental approach to monetary policy (utilizing both negative interest rates and quantitative easing) presents a peculiar case of interest. This thesis presents new evidence on the monetary policy transmission in Sweden during the low inflation period. To convey this, it utilizes the Proxy-SVAR method, where data from financial markets are used to identify monetary policy shocks and their propagation through the financial and macroeconomic variables. In particular, STINA-swaps are used as an instrumental variable in our main model of interest. The results strongly suggest dampened effectiveness of the repo rate, the Riksbank's main interest rate tool, in achieving the inflation target over the past decades. Price puzzle is present in all model variations applied and hence hints at the inability of the Swedish central bank to effectively control inflation via interest rate decisions. It is important to state that the results are robust to multiple econometric specifications, different inflation setups or estimation methods. Furthermore, the...
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