Current effectiveness and functioning of one of the key instruments of monetary policy, the interest rate, has been debated around the world with an increasing intensity. Sweden, specifically, characterized by a recent low inflation period coupled with an experimental approach to monetary policy (utilizing both negative interest rates and quantitative easing) presents a peculiar case of interest. This thesis presents new evidence on the monetary policy transmission in Sweden during the low inflation period. To convey this, it utilizes the Proxy-SVAR method, where data from financial markets are used to identify monetary policy shocks and their propagation through the financial and macroeconomic variables. In particular, STINA-swaps are used as an instrumental variable in our main model of interest. The results strongly suggest dampened effectiveness of the repo rate, the Riksbank's main interest rate tool, in achieving the inflation target over the past decades. Price puzzle is present in all model variations applied and hence hints at the inability of the Swedish central bank to effectively control inflation via interest rate decisions. It is important to state that the results are robust to multiple econometric specifications, different inflation setups or estimation methods. Furthermore, the...

Even though precise evaluation of money demand function is essential for cen- tral banking and for the right determination of the transmission mechanism, economists have not reached a consensus about the underlying determinants of money demand function neither their magnitude and direction. Researchers differ even in the selection of measures used for the main variables - income, and interest rate. While the heterogeneity in elasticity estimates of the former one has been scrutinize in several quantitative surveys, to the best of our knowledge, there has not been compiled any meta-analysis focusing on differences among the interest rate elasticities of the money demand. Therefore, we collected 53 studies reporting 1 094 estimates of interest rate elasticity. Implementing both the state-of-the-art methods and those proposed only recently, we have found out that researches are prone to selective reporting. Firstly, our results shows that negative publication bias is present in empirical studies of the money de- mand and increases the average elasticity estimate approximately three times (in absolute terms). Secondly, negative highly precise estimates are more likely to be compared to their imprecise counterparts. Additionally, we scrutinize po- tential sources of heterogeneity among individual...

The following study assesses whether an economic relationship exists between the money supply (i.e. M2), interest rates, and the exchange rate and the retail food price level in the United States. Data for the M2 classification of the United States money supply, the Effective Federals Funds (interest) Rate, and the United States Trade Weighted Exchange Index: Major Currencies for the period from January 1974 through December 2007 are evaluated as they relate to the United States Consumer Price Index for all Urban Consumers: Food for the same period. The statistical analysis involves an examination of the autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation functions of each variable, a test for the presence of stationarity in each variable(Augmented Dickey-Fuller test), Johansen’s test for co-integrating equations of the variables considered, Granger’s test for causality, and finally an estimation of regression models of United States retail food prices as a function of the money supply, interest rates, and exchange rates. Results indicate that a statistically significant relationship exists among the variables tested. A causal relationship exists between the Federal Funds Rate and the money supply, the money supply and the retail level of food prices, and also between the exchange rate and the retail level of food prices. The implications of the results are assessed through the lens of agricultural producers and processors, investors, lenders, consumers, and monetary and agricultural policymakers. Keywords: retail food prices, money supply, Federal Funds Rate, exchange rate, augmented Dickey-Fuller, Johansen’s test for co-integration, Granger causality

This study aims to analyse the changes in the capital structure of Swedish real estate companies over the past five years, with a particular focus on the period 2022-2023, characterised by the policy interest rate increasing from zero to 3.5 percent. The study further explores the potential risks these companies face concerning interest rate exposure and liquidity. The research process involves a comprehensive literature review, quantitative analysis of financial key figures, and qualitative interviews with banks and consultants in the real estate market. The findings suggest that the capital structure of real estate companies is highly influenced by the cost of capital and the companies’ credit ratings. While large companies with the highest credit ratings have coped with increased capital costs in the bond market and continue issuing bonds, remaining investment grade companies have turned to the bank sector as the prices in the bond market have increased. Increased competition in bank financing has made the banks more selective, prioritising existing customers and making it challenging for high-yield and non-existing bank customers to secure debt. The high demand for bank financing further opens up possibilities for alternative financing to increase market shares. As a consequence of escalated risk in the real estate sector, financiers are increasing credit margins and implementing stricter credit terms. A key factor for assessing the risk in today’s market is the capability of the cash flow to cover the rising cost of capital, exposing the low- yielding residential segment. To mitigate liquidity risk, the findings suggest an increased need for equity and expected share issuance and asset sales. However, a stress test conducted based on the Interest coverage ratio suggests that the real estate market is able to handle additional interest rate increases, not facing alarming distress until interest rates increase by an additional 3%. By examining theories such as the Pecking Order and Trade-off Theory, this research contributes to the existing literature, shedding light on the evolving capital structure of Swedish real estate companies and the impact of interest rate fluctuations on financing strategies and risk evaluation. / Denna studie syftar till att analysera trender i svenska fastighetsbolags kapitalstruktur under de senaste fem åren, med fokus på perioden 2022-2023, färgad av höjningar i Riksbankens styrränta från noll till 3.5%. Studien utforskar även potentiella risker för fastighetsbolag avseende ränta och likviditet. Forskningsprocessen inkluderar en omfattande litteraturgenomgång, kvantitativ analys av finansiella nyckeltal och kvalitativa intervjuer med banker och konsulter på fastighetsmarknaden. Resultaten antyder att kapitalstrukturen för fastighetsbolag i hög grad påverkas av kapitalkostnad och företagens kreditbetyg. Medan stora företag med högsta kreditbetyg har kunnat hantera ökade kapitalkostnader på obligationsmarknaden och fortsätter att emittera obligationer, har återstående företag med investment grade rating vänt sig till banksektorn när priserna på obligationsmarknaden har ökat. Ökad konkurrens för bankfinansiering har gjort bankerna mer selektiva, med prioritet för befintliga kunder, vilket har gjort det utmanande för high-yield betygsatta och icke-existerande bankkunder att säkra skulder. Den höga efterfrågan på bankfinansiering öppnar också upp möjligheter för alternativ finansiering att öka i marknadsandel. Som en följd av ökad risk inom fastighetssektorn ökar finansiärer kreditmarginalerna och inför striktare kreditvillkor. En viktig faktor för att bedöma risken på dagens marknad är förmågan hos kassaflödet att täcka den stigande kapitalkostnaden, vilket exponerar det lågavkastande bostadssegmentet. För att minska likviditetsrisken antyder resultaten ett ökat behov av eget kapital och förväntade aktieemissioner och försäljningar av tillgångar. Studien inkluderar ett stresstest genomfört baserat på räntetäckningsgraden, vilket emellertid antyder att fastighetsmarknaden klarar av ytterligare räntehöjningar och uppnår ordentliga finansiella svårigheter först vid en räntehöjning på ytterligare 3 procentenheter från dagens läge. Genom att undersöka teorier som Pecking Order och Trade-off Theory bidrar denna forskning till befintlig litteratur och belyser den utvecklande kapitalstrukturen för svenska fastighetsbolag samt påverkan av räntefluktuationer på finansieringsstrategier och riskbedömning.

Fastighetssektorn är en kapitalintensiv bransch och under de senaste åren har det skett en förändring i hur fastighetsbolag väljer att finansiera sin verksamhet. Bolagen har stegvis minskat andelen traditionella banklån och övergått till att finansiera sig mer och mer via kapitalmarknaden med instrument som obligationer, certifikat, hybridobligationer samt preferensaktier och D-aktier. Till att börja med är syftet med denna studie därmed att undersöka närmare varför denna förändring i kapitalstrukturerna har skett och om det finns några risker med den. Under tiden när detta arbete har tagit form har det varit betydligt högre inflation än normalt och det har genomförts räntehöjningar. Prognoser tyder på fortsatta höjningar under året samtidigt som den höga inflationen väntas vara övergående. Därmed syftar studien även till att undersöka huruvida det finns risker med att bolagen har så stor andel marknadsfinansiering när marknadsförhållandena skiftar till det sämre och om detta är något som bolagen har vidtagit eller tänkt vidta åtgärder för. Den ökade skuldmängden och marknadsfinansieringen inom sektorn är även något som Finansinspektionen har uttryckt en oro för. Studien ämnar därför också att undersöka om fastighetsbolagen delar denna syn. Resultatet av denna kvalitativa studie visar att orsaken till omställningen i bolagens kapitalstrukturer kan kopplas till faktorer som pris och enkelhet vilka är avgörande när bolagen väljer finansieringssätt. Fastighetsbolagen ser däremot inga större risker med omställningen till marknadsfinansiering men uttrycker att det finns en del förbättringsområden. De bolag som nyttjar kapitalmarknaden följer kraven från ratinginstituten och har således god finansiell ställning och starka balansräkningar. De följer även sina interna finansiella policies som är utformade för att fungera i både goda men även under sämre marknadsförhållanden. Däremot har skuldmängden i fastighetssektorn ökat till följd av den långvariga lågräntemiljön och en snabb omställning av marknadsförhållanden kan göra det svårare att ställa om vilket kan få negativa konsekvenser för flera aktörer. Det är begränsat vad företagen kan göra för att skydda sig mot effekterna av detta och det som kommer att vara avgörande är hur snabba förändringar det blir. Oron som Finansinspektionen uttryckt kan därmed beskrivas som någorlunda befogad men ur fastighetsbolagens perspektiv kan inte nyttjandet av kapitalmarknaden ses som ett problem för tillfället. / The real estate sector is a capital-intensive industry and in recent years there has been a change in how real estate companies choose to finance their operations. The companies have gradually reduced the amount of traditionary bank loans and have moved to financing themselves more and more via the capital market with instruments such as bonds, certificates, hybrid bonds as well as preferred shares and dividend shares. To begin with, the purpose of this study is thus to investigate more in detail why this change in the capital structures has taken place and whether there are any risks with it. During the time when this thesis has been produced, inflation rates have been significantly higher than normal and an increase in the interest rate have been implemented. Forecasts indicate further increase during the year, while high inflation is expected to be temporary. Therefore, the study also aims to examine whether there is any risk connected to the companies’ large share of market financing when the market conditions change for the worse and whether this is something which the companies have taken or intend to take measures for. The increased debt volume and use of market financing in the sector is also something that the Swedish Financial Supervisory Authority has expressed concerns about. The study therefore also intends to investigate whether real estate companies share this view of opinion. The result of this qualitative study shows that the reason for the change in the companies’ capital structures can be linked to factors such as price and simplicity, which are decisive when the companies choose their financing method. The real estate companies, on the other hand, see no major risks with the transition to market financing, but express that there are some areas for improvement. The companies that use the capital market follow the requirements of the rating agencies and therefore they have a good financial position and strong balance sheets. They also follow internal financial policies that are designed to work in both good but also in worse market conditions. On the other hand, the amount of debt in the real estate sector has increased as a result of the long-term low interest rate environment, and a rapid adjustment of market conditions can make it more difficult to adjust, which can have negative consequences for several participants in the sector. There’s a limit to what companies can do to protect themselves against the effects of this and what will be crucial is how fast the changes will take place. The concern expressed by the Swedish Financial Supervisory Authority can therefore be described as reasonably justified, but from the real estate companies’ perspective, the use of the capital market cannot be seen as a problem as of now.

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When modeling interest rates, using strong formulations of underlying differential equations is prone to bad numerical approximations and high computational costs, due to close to non-smoothness in the probability density function of the interest rate. To circumvent these problems, a weak formulation of the Fokker–Planck equation using Gaussian radial basis functions is suggested. This approach is used in a parameter estimation process for two interest rate models: the Vasicek model and the Cox–Ingersoll–Ross model. In this thesis, such an approach is shown to yield good numerical approximations at low computational costs.

Trust is essential for individuals. We want others to keep their promises and meet our expectations (Dan der Cruijsen et al., 2020, p.680-681). This also applies to banks. For many individuals, trusting their bank is essential to ensure financial security. The interest rate increases between 2022 and 2023, and the increased bank profits, as a result, caught the attention of many individuals. Could two events like these possibly disrupt individuals' trust toward banks? As a result of the high inflation in Sweden in recent years, interest rates increased significantly between 2022 and 2023 which shocked many individuals. Furthermore, banks' profits increased because of the increased interest rates. While banks are profit-making companies, they need to be cautious not to lose the trust of their customers.  This study is based on theories fundamental to answering the study's research questions and purpose. The purpose is to provide an understanding of the factors that affect individuals trust toward their main bank. In addition, the study analyzes factors that may influence the disruption of trust toward banks. The focus will be on whether the interest rate increases and banks' increased profits between 2022 and 2023 have disrupted individuals' trust. The theories used to respond to the purpose are the anchoring effect, point of reference, financial literacy, asymmetric information, and overconfidence.  A quantitative method was adapted for this study to collect data through a questionnaire. By building the questionnaire on appropriate theories, we could examine how our results were consistent with previous research. Later, a linear regression analysis was conducted in Stata based on our collected data. Correlation, multicollinearity, and heteroscedasticity were tested to obtain proper values.  The results from this study show several factors that affect individuals' trust toward banks. Also, it indicates that the sudden interest rate increases and the increased bank profits between 2022 and 2023 disrupt individuals' trust toward banks. Some factors that affect the level of trust are whether the individual has experience of incorrect financial advice, lives in a small city, and feels that they do not receive enough information from the bank. These factors can be linked to previous research on asymmetric information. Other factors that affect trust are how easily individuals generally trust other people and whether individuals visit a bank office for banking affairs. These factors can be linked to previous research on point of reference. Furthermore, individuals having an elementary school degree as the highest education level and unemployed individuals are factors affecting trust that can be linked to financial literacy. These mentioned factors are only a few, the remaining ones are to be found in the result.  This study provides a better insight into trust and trust disruption because of the two events, increased interest rates, and increased bank profits. The results are beneficial both for individuals and banks.

Denna studie undersöker sambandet mellan penningpolitiska uttalanden från Sveriges centralbank och börsutvecklingen, med särskilt fokus på annonsering av styrränta och avkastningen för bolag underliggande Stockholmsbörsens storbolagsindex, OMXS30. Syftet med studien är att undersöka om det föreligger abnormala avkastningar i samband med Riksbankens räntebesked, där två forskningsfrågor har formulerats som adresserar den övergripande marknadsreaktionen samt branschspecifika effekter. För att analysera dessa samband har ett antal hypoteser utformats och testats med hjälp av en eventstudie-metod. Denna metod innebar genomförande av statistiska tester baserade på insamlade sekundärdata i form av historiska aktiekurser under två perioder, 2015-2016 respektive 2022-2023. Vidare har studien granskat den effektiva marknadshypotesen, där resultaten indikerade en generell avsaknad av statistiskt signifikanta samband mellan räntebesked och abnormala avkastningar vilket stödjer teorin om en effektiv marknad. Samtidigt identifierades ett antal sektorsspecifika mönster, där industrisektorn visade viss känslighet för räntesänkningar medan finanssektorn uppvisade ett antal observationer med abnormala avkastningar i samband med räntehöjningar. Sammanfattningsvis finner studien begränsad evidens för ett direkt samband mellan Riksbankens räntebesked och aktieavkastningar inom OMXS30, vilket antyder att marknaden effektivt inkorporerar denna information i aktiekurserna. Slutligen föreslås några rekommendationer för framtida forskning för att vidare undersöka dessa dynamiker och deras konsekvenser för investerare. Dessa innefattar bland annat användningen av ett bredare urval av branscher och företag, samt inkludera en multivariatanalys samt en sentimentanalys. / This study examines the relationship between monetary policy statements from the Swedish central bank and stock market performance, with a particular focus on the policy rate announcements and the returns of companies comprising the OMXS30 index. The purpose of the study is to investigate if abnormal returns occur around Riksbank's interest rate decisions, where two research questions were formulated addressing the overall market reaction and industry-specific effects. To analyze these relationships, a number of hypotheses have been developed and tested using an event study method. This method involved conducting statistical tests based on collected secondary data in the form of historical stock prices over two periods, 2015-2016 and 2022-2023. Furthermore, the study examined the Efficient Market Hypothesis, where the results indicated a general lack of statistically significant relationships between interest rate announcements and abnormal returns, supporting the theory of an efficient market. However, sector-specific patterns were identified, with the industrial sector showing some sensitivity to interest rate cuts while the financial sector showed a number of observations with abnormal returns associated with interest rate hikes. In summary, the study finds limited evidence for a direct relationship between the Riksbank's interest rate announcements and stock returns within OMXS30, suggesting that the market effectively incorporates this information into stock prices. To conclude, some recommendations for future research are proposed to further explore these dynamics and their implications for investors. These include using a broader selection of industries and companies, as well as incorporating multivariate analysis and sentiment analysis.

John B. Taylor, professor i nationalekonomi vid Stanford University, presenterade år 1993 en penningpolitisk regel som syftade till att vara ett hjälpmedel för centralbanker vid räntebeslut. Taylor-regeln är mycket enkel i sitt uförande och baseras på att styrräntan bör sättas efter två variabler: BNP-gapet och inflationsavvikelsen. Denna styrränteregel fick genomslag inom den vetenskapliga världen men spreds även till makroekonomisk praktik och medförde stora förändringar för penningpolitiken. Flera empriska studier har publicerats sedan Taylor-regeln tillkom och det råder det delade meningar om hur väl Taylor-regeln presterar för olika typer av ekonomier och hur användbar den är idag. Det har även uppkomit nya teorier angående trögheten i effekterna av styrränteförändringar och vid vilken tidpunkt dessa får en inverkan på inflationstakten. Syftet med denna uppsats är att jämföra hur väl den ursprungliga Taylor-modellen och en tidslaggad modell förklarar centralbankernas historiska styrräntesättning i fem länder med inflationsmål under tidsperioden 2000-2013. Analysen av resultaten görs med utgångspunkt i ländernas olika ekonomiska egenskaper samt tidsperioden som studien omfattar. Studien begränsas till jämförelser av de två Taylor-modellernas tillämpbarhet vid styrräntesättningar för länderna Brasilien, Kanada, Polen, Sverige och Sydafrika. De två modellerna modifieras också med en styrränteutjämningsfunktion.   Våra resultat tyder på att den ursprungliga Taylor-regeln presterar bättre i förhållande till den tidslaggade modellen när det gäller att förklara den faktiska styrräntesättningen idag för alla länder i studien utom Polen. Den tidslaggade presterar dock bättre än den ursprungliga för de utvecklade ekonomierna Sverige och Kanada under 1990-talet. Båda modellerna gör kraftiga över- och underskattningar som till stor del avhjälps med den utjämningsfunktion som vi tillämpar. Koefficienterna hålls konstanta över hela tidsperioden, vilket inte är rimligt då en viss dynamik bör inkluderas så att regeln justeras efter varje period då för mycket vikt läggs vid BNP-variabeln som såldes är en bidragande faktor till regelns över- och underskattningar. Regeln presterar bättre för ekonomier med stabila förhållanden mellan tillväxttakt och inflationstakt än för länder som lider av mer volatila förhållanden mellan dessa två variabler, likt tillväxtländerna i vår studie. Dessutom ger Taylor-regeln skattningar som ligger närmre den faktiska styrräntesättningen under de tidigare delarna av perioden för att sedan till större del börja avvika från den faktiskt satta styrräntan.   Slutsatserna som kan dras utifrån våra resultat är att den ursprungliga Taylor-regeln presterar bäst i att beskriva ett lands styrräntesättning sett till kvantitativa mått medan en tidslaggad modell tar större hänsyn faktiska förhållanden. Över lag presterar modellerna bättre för de utvecklade ekonomierna än för tillväxtekonomierna och huruvida storleken på ekonomin har någon inverkan är svårt att avgöra. Resultaten tyder också på att Taylor-regeln med tidslagg ligger närmre den faktiska styrräntesättningen för de utvecklade ekonomierna under 1990-talet än under perioden 2000-2013 medan den ursprungliga presterar bättre idag. / John. B Taylor, professor of Economics at Stanford University, presented a monetary policy rule in 1993 which intended to help central banks with their interst rate decisions. In its design the Taylor-rule was very simple and based on only two variables: the GDP-gap and the deviation of actual inflation from the inflation target. The Taylor rule had a great impact on the academic research and also contributed to changes within monetary policy around the world. Many empirical studies have been published on the Taylor rule and there are divided contentions about its applicability in different kind of economies and its relevance today. New theories have also been published regardning the time aspect of the impact on inflation due to a change in the interest rate. The intentions of this study is to make a comparsion between the original Taylor rule and a Taylor rule including a time lag regarding how well they describe the actual interest rates set by the central banks in five countries during the period 2000-2013. The results will be analyzed under consideration of the different economies attributes. The study compares the two kinds of Taylor rules and the applicability in describing the historical interest rate in Brazil, Canada, Poland, Sweden and South Africa. The two rules have also been modified with an interest rate smoothing-function.   Our results conclude that the original Taylor rule describes the historical interest rate better than the rule including a time lag for the time period 2000-2013 for all countries apart from Poland. For the developed economies Canada and Sweden the time lagged model show less deviations for the 1990’s. However both rules tend to over and underestimate the valutation of the interest rate. The smoothing function does to some extent correct this problem. The coefficients of the variables are held constant during the study which in reality should not be the case. They should instead be adjusted between every period to make allowances for the different relationship of the two variables. Mostly too much weight is put on the GDP-variable which should be a contributing cause of the overestimations. The rules do however have the tendency to describe the historical interst rate of the developed economies superior to the developing economies. The performance is greater at the beginning of the period with less deviation from the actual outcome than later on. The conclusion of our study is that the original Taylor rule generally performs superior to the one including time lag with conciderations to the deviations from the actual interest rates. However, the Taylor rule including the time-lag does allow for actual circumstances which the original Taylor rule does not take into consideration. Mainly the rules do perform better for developed economies compared to developing economies. Regarding the impact of the size of the economy on the applicability of the rules it was difficult to conclude anything specific. The Taylor rule with the time-lag is more applicable for the developed economies during the earlier time period, the 1990’s, than the later time period, the 2000’s where the original Taylor rule shows less deviations.