The research presented in this thesis addresses different aspects of dynamic portfolio construction and portfolio risk measurement. It brings the research on dynamic portfolio optimization, replicating portfolio construction, dynamic portfolio risk measurement and volatility forecast together. The overall aim of this research is threefold. First, it is aimed to examine the portfolio construction and risk measurement performance of a broad set of volatility forecast and portfolio optimization model. Second, in an effort to improve their forecast accuracy and portfolio construction performance, it is aimed to propose new models or new formulations to the available models. Third, in order to enhance the replication performance of hedge fund returns, it is aimed to introduce a replication approach that has the potential to be used in numerous applications, in investment management. In order to achieve these aims, Chapter 2 addresses risk measurement in dynamic portfolio construction. In this chapter, further evidence on the use of multivariate conditional volatility models in hedge fund risk measurement and portfolio allocation is provided by using monthly returns of hedge fund strategy indices for the period 1990 to 2009. Building on Giamouridis and Vrontos (2007), a broad set of multivariate GARCH models, as well as, the simpler exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) estimator of RiskMetrics (1996) are considered. It is found that, while multivariate GARCH models provide some improvements in portfolio performance over static models, they are generally dominated by the EWMA model. In particular, in addition to providing a better risk-adjusted performance, the EWMA model leads to dynamic allocation strategies that have a substantially lower turnover and could therefore be expected to involve lower transaction costs. Moreover, it is shown that these results are robust across the low - volatility and high-volatility sub-periods. Chapter 3 addresses optimization in dynamic portfolio construction. In this chapter, the advantages of introducing alternative optimization frameworks over the mean-variance framework in constructing hedge fund portfolios for a fund of funds. Using monthly return data of hedge fund strategy indices for the period 1990 to 2011, the standard mean-variance approach is compared with approaches based on CVaR, CDaR and Omega, for both conservative and aggressive hedge fund investors. In order to estimate portfolio CVaR, CDaR and Omega, a semi-parametric approach is proposed, in which first the marginal density of each hedge fund index is modelled using extreme value theory and the joint density of hedge fund index returns is constructed using a copula-based approach. Then hedge fund returns from this joint density are simulated in order to compute CVaR, CDaR and Omega. The semi-parametric approach is compared with the standard, non-parametric approach, in which the quantiles of the marginal density of portfolio returns are estimated empirically and used to compute CVaR, CDaR and Omega. Two main findings are reported. The first is that CVaR-, CDaR- and Omega-based optimization offers a significant improvement in terms of risk-adjusted portfolio performance over mean-variance optimization. The second is that, for all three risk measures, semi-parametric estimation of the optimal portfolio offers a very significant improvement over non-parametric estimation. The results are robust to as the choice of target return and the estimation period. Chapter 4 searches for improvements in portfolio risk measurement by addressing volatility forecast. In this chapter, two new univariate Markov regime switching models based on intraday range are introduced. A regime switching conditional volatility model is combined with a robust measure of volatility based on intraday range, in a framework for volatility forecasting. This chapter proposes a one-factor and a two-factor model that combine useful properties of range, regime switching, nonlinear filtration, and GARCH frameworks. Any incremental improvement in the performance of volatility forecasting is searched for by employing regime switching in a conditional volatility setting with enhanced information content on true volatility. Weekly S&P500 index data for 1982-2010 is used. Models are evaluated by using a number of volatility proxies, which approximate true integrated volatility. Forecast performance of the proposed models is compared to renowned return-based and range-based models, namely EWMA of Riskmetrics, hybrid EWMA of Harris and Yilmaz (2009), GARCH of Bollerslev (1988), CARR of Chou (2005), FIGARCH of Baillie et al. (1996) and MRSGARCH of Klaassen (2002). It is found that the proposed models produce more accurate out of sample forecasts, contain more information about true volatility and exhibit similar or better performance when used for value at risk comparison. Chapter 5 searches for improvements in risk measurement for a better dynamic portfolio construction. This chapter proposes multivariate versions of one and two factor MRSACR models introduced in the fourth chapter. In these models, useful properties of regime switching models, nonlinear filtration and range-based estimator are combined with a multivariate setting, based on static and dynamic correlation estimates. In comparing the out-of-sample forecast performance of these models, eminent return and range-based volatility models are employed as benchmark models. A hedge fund portfolio construction is conducted in order to investigate the out-of-sample portfolio performance of the proposed models. Also, the out-of-sample performance of each model is tested by using a number of statistical tests. In particular, a broad range of statistical tests and loss functions are utilized in evaluating the forecast performance of the variance covariance matrix of each portfolio. It is found that, in terms statistical test results, proposed models offer significant improvements in forecasting true volatility process, and, in terms of risk and return criteria employed, proposed models perform better than benchmark models. Proposed models construct hedge fund portfolios with higher risk-adjusted returns, lower tail risks, offer superior risk-return tradeoffs and better active management ratios. However, in most cases these improvements come at the expense of higher portfolio turnover and rebalancing expenses. Chapter 6 addresses the dynamic portfolio construction for a better hedge fund return replication and proposes a new approach. In this chapter, a method for hedge fund replication is proposed that uses a factor-based model supplemented with a series of risk and return constraints that implicitly target all the moments of the hedge fund return distribution. The approach is used to replicate the monthly returns of ten broad hedge fund strategy indices, using long-only positions in ten equity, bond, foreign exchange, and commodity indices, all of which can be traded using liquid, investible instruments such as futures, options and exchange traded funds. In out-of-sample tests, proposed approach provides an improvement over the pure factor-based model, offering a closer match to both the return performance and risk characteristics of the hedge fund strategy indices.

La tesi desenvolupa el tema de la predicció de la volatilitat financera en el context de l’ús de dades d’alta freqüència, i se centra en una línia de recerca doble: proposar models alternatius que millorarien la predicció de la volatilitat i classificar els models de volatilitat ja existents com els que es proposen en aquesta tesi. Els objectius es poden classificar en tres categories. El primer consisteix en la proposta d’un nou mètode de predicció de la volatilitat que segueix una línia de recerca desenvolupada recentment, la qual apunta al fet de mesurar la volatilitat intradia, com també la nocturna. Es proposa una categoria de models realized GARCH bivariants. El segon objectiu consisteix en la proposta d’una metodologia per predir la volatilitat diària multivariant amb models autoregressius que utilitzen estimacions de volatilitat diària (i nocturna, en el cas dels bivariants), a més d’informació d’alta freqüència, quan se’n disposava. S’aplica l’anàlisi de components principals (ACP) a un conjunt de models de tipus realized GARCH univariants i bivariants. El mètode representa una extensió d’un model ja existent (PC-GARCH) que estimava un model GARCH multivariant a partir de l’estimació de models GARCH univariants dels components principals de les variables inicials. El tercer objectiu de la tesi és classificar el rendiment dels models de predicció de la volatilitat ja existents o dels nous, a més de la precisió de les mesures intradia que s’utilitzaven en les estimacions dels models. En relació amb els resultats, s’observa que els models EGARCHX, realized EGARCH i realized GARCH(2,2) obtenen una millor valoració, mentre que els models GARCH i no realized EGARCH obtenen uns resultats inferiors en gairebé totes les proves. Això permet concloure que el fet d’incorporar mesures de volatilitat intradia millora el problema de la modelització. Quant a la classificació dels models realized bivariants, s’observa que tant els models realized GARCH bivariant (en versions completes i parcials) com el model realized EGARCH bivariant obtenen millors resultats; els segueixen els models realized GARCH(2,2) bivariant, EGARCH bivariant I EGARCHX bivariant. En comparar les versions bivariants amb les univariants, amb l’objectiu d’investigar si l’ús de mesures de volatilitat nocturna a les equacions dels models millora l’estimació de la volatilitat, es mostra que els models bivariants superen els univariants. Els resultats proven que els models bivariants no són totalment inferiors als seus homòlegs univariants, sinó que resulten ser bones alternatives per utilitzar-los en la predicció, juntament amb els models univariants, per tal d’obtenir unes estimacions més fiables. / La tesis desarrolla el tema de la predicción de la volatilidad financiera en el contexto del uso de datos de alta frecuencia, y se centra en una doble línea de investigación: la de proponer modelos alternativos que mejorarían la predicción de la volatilidad y la de clasificar modelos de volatilidad ya existentes como los propuestos en esta tesis. Los objetivos se pueden clasificar en tres categorías. El primero consiste en la propuesta de un nuevo método de predicción de la volatilidad que sigue una línea de investigación recientemente desarrollada, la cual apunta al hecho de medir la volatilidad intradía, así como la nocturna. Se propone una categoría de modelos realized GARCH bivariantes. El segundo objetivo consiste en proponer una metodología para predecir la volatilidad diaria multivariante con modelos autorregresivos que utilizaran estimaciones de volatilidad diaria (y nocturna, en el caso de los bivariantes), además de información de alta frecuencia, si la había disponible. Se aplica el análisis de componentes principales (ACP) a un conjunto de modelos de tipo realized GARCH univariantes y bivariantes. El método representa una extensión de un modelo ya existente (PCGARCH) que calculaba un modelo GARCH multivariante a partir de la estimación de modelos GARCH univariantes de los componentes principales de las variables iniciales. El tercer objetivo de la tesis es clasificar el rendimiento de los modelos de predicción de la volatilidad ya existentes o de los nuevos, así como la precisión de medidas intradía utilizadas en las estimaciones de los modelos. En relación con los resultados, se observa que los modelos EGARCHX, realized EGARCH y GARCH(2,2) obtienen una mejor valoración, mientras que los modelos GARCH y no realized EGARCH obtienen unos resultados inferiores en casi todas las pruebas. Esto permite concluir que el hecho de incorporar medidas de volatilidad intradía mejora el problema de la modelización. En cuanto a la clasificación de modelos realized bivariantes, se observa que tanto los modelos realized GARCH bivariante (en versiones completas y parciales) como realized EGARCH bivariante obtienen mejores resultados; les siguen los modelos realized GARCH(2,2) bivariante, EGARCH bivariante y EGARCHX bivariante. Al comparar las versiones bivariantes con las univariantes, con el objetivo de investigar si el uso de medidas de volatilidad nocturna en las ecuaciones de los modelos mejora la estimación de la volatilidad, se muestra que los modelos bivariantes superan los univariantes. Los resultados prueban que los modelos bivariantes no son totalmente inferiores a sus homólogos univariantes, sino que resultan ser buenas alternativas para utilizarlos en la predicción, junto con los modelos univariantes, para lograr unas estimaciones más fiables. / The thesis develops the topic of financial volatility forecasting in the context of the usage of high frequency data, and focuses on a twofold line of research: that of proposing alternative models that would enhance volatility forecasting and that of ranking existing or newly proposed volatility models. The objectives may be disseminated in three categories. The first scope constitutes of the proposal of a new method of volatility forecasting that follows a recently developed research line that pointed to using measures of intraday volatility and also of measures of night volatility, the need for new models being given by the question whether adding measures of night volatility improves day volatility estimations. As a result, a class of bivariate realized GARCH models was proposed. The second scope was to propose a methodology to forecast multivariate day volatility with autoregressive models that used day (and night for bivariate) volatility estimates, as well as high frequency information when that was available. For this, the Principal Component algorithm (PCA) was applied to a class of univariate and bivariate realized GARCH-type of models. The method represents an extension of one existing model (PC GARCH) that estimated a multivariate GARCH model by estimating univariate GARCH models of the principal components of the initial variables. The third goal of the thesis was to rank the performance of existing or newly proposed volatility forecasting models, as well as the accuracy of the intraday measures used in the realized models estimations. With regards to the univariate realized models’ rankings, it was found that EGARCHX, Realized EGARCH and Realized GARCH(2,2) models persistently ranked better, while the non-realized GARCH and EGARCH models performed poor in each stance almost. This allowed us to conclude that incorporating measures of intraday volatility enhances the modeling problem. With respect to the bivariate realized models’ ranking, it was found that Bivariate Realized GARCH (partial and complete versions) and Bivariate Realized EGARCH models performed the best, followed by the Bivariate Realized GARCH(2,2), Bivariate EGARCH and Bivariate EGARCHX models. When the bivariate versions were compared to the univariate ones in order to investigate whether using night volatility measurements in the models’ equations improves volatility estimation, it was found that the bivariate models surpassed the univariate ones when specific methodology, ranking criteria and stocks were used. The results were mixed, allowing us to conclude that the bivariate models did not prove totally inferior to their univariate counterparts, proving as good alternative options to be used in the forecasting exercise, together with the univariate models, for more reliable estimates. Finally, the PC realized models and PC bivariate realized models were estimated and their performances were ranked; improvements the PC methodology brought in high frequency multivariate modeling of stock returns were also discussed. PC models were found to be highly effective in estimating multivariate volatility of highly correlated stock assets and suggestions on how investors could use them for portfolio selection were made.

This thesis is composed of three chapters which propose some novel approaches to model and forecast financial time series. The first chapter focuses on high frequency financial returns and proposes a quantile regression approach to model their intraday seasonality and dynamics. The second chapter deals with the problem of forecasting the yield curve including large datasets of macroeconomics information. While the last chapter addresses the issue of modelling the term structure of interest rates. <p><p>The first chapter investigates the distribution of high frequency financial returns, with special emphasis on the intraday seasonality. Using quantile regression, I show the expansions and shrinks of the probability law through the day for three years of 15 minutes sampled stock returns. Returns are more dispersed and less concentrated around the median at the hours near the opening and closing. I provide intraday value at risk assessments and I show how it adapts to changes of dispersion over the day. The tests performed on the out-of-sample forecasts of the value at risk show that the model is able to provide good risk assessments and to outperform standard Gaussian and Student’s t GARCH models.<p><p>The second chapter shows that macroeconomic indicators are helpful in forecasting the yield curve. I incorporate a large number of macroeconomic predictors within the Nelson and Siegel (1987) model for the yield curve, which can be cast in a common factor model representation. Rather than including macroeconomic variables as additional factors, I use them to extract the Nelson and Siegel factors. Estimation is performed by EM algorithm and Kalman filter using a data set composed by 17 yields and 118 macro variables. Results show that incorporating large macroeconomic information improves the accuracy of out-of-sample yield forecasts at medium and long horizons.<p><p>The third chapter statistically tests whether the Nelson and Siegel (1987) yield curve model is arbitrage-free. Theoretically, the Nelson-Siegel model does not ensure the absence of arbitrage opportunities. Still, central banks and public wealth managers rely heavily on it. Using a non-parametric resampling technique and zero-coupon yield curve data from the US market, I find that the no-arbitrage parameters are not statistically different from those obtained from the Nelson and Siegel model, at a 95 percent confidence level. I therefore conclude that the Nelson and Siegel yield curve model is compatible with arbitrage-freeness.<p> / Doctorat en Sciences économiques et de gestion / info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

[ES] Los Sistemas de Distribución de Calor Urbanos (SDCU) son una tecnología madura para el suministro eficiente de calor en las ciudades. En el contexto de la crisis climática y del objetivo de descarbonizar el sector de la calefacción, estos sistemas pueden desempeñar un papel muy importante. En principio, los SDCU existentes actualmente están basados principalmente en el uso de combustibles fósiles, por lo que forman parte del problema. Sin embargo, mediante la integración de plantas de generación de calor renovables, los SDCU pueden ofrecer un gran potencial para apoyar la transición hacia un suministro de calor sin combustibles fósiles. Esta transición se ve dificultada por diversas barreras. Por ejemplo, la necesidad de bajas temperaturas de suministro para que la integración de las plantas renovables de generación de calor sea rentable. Sin embargo, dado que las plantas de generación de calor fósiles existentes no se benefician de una reducción de la temperatura, existe un efecto de bloqueo en los modelos de negocio establecidos. En la investigación actual, la resolución de las barreras se centra en soluciones individuales para cuestiones específicas y en estrategias de calor para un nivel general. Como las barreras están fuertemente interrelacionadas, las empresas de distribución de calor urbano requieren una metodología de transición sistémica para sus actividades específicas en los diferentes ámbitos de planificación y operación. Tras constatar su ausencia en la bibliografía, la presente tesis pretende desarrollar una metodología integral que facilite dicha transición de forma rentable. Para la realización de esta tarea, esta tesis introduce un enfoque de marco que combina conceptos independientes nuevos y existentes, construyéndose sobre una estructura diseñada en los ocho «ámbitos» de interés de los SDCU. Estos ámbitos de los SDCU clasifican las actividades en los diferentes campos de las problemáticas de este tipo de sistemas. Para abordar las actividades de planificación y operación en las empresas de distribución de calor urbano, estas actividades se integran en el nuevo «marco» que se clasifica según los tres ámbitos de los SDCU: «diseño», «planificación operativa» y «operación». Dicho marco resume las actividades relacionadas según los procesos y las vincula mediante mecanismos técnicos y económicos. Estos mecanismos se plantean de forma que todas las actividades se incentiven para facilitar la transición. Se propone una nueva estructura organizativa que permita la introducción de la competencia, al mismo tiempo que el marco asegura la llamada suboptimización, la prevención del abuso de poder en el mercado y la restricción de las inversiones. Además, permite a los productores de calor independientes integrarse en el sistema. Complementariamente, el marco integra las tecnologías más relevantes que ofrecen flexibilidad al sistema para compensar las fluctuaciones de la producción. En esta tesis se ha desarrollado un marco adecuado para aplicar un «paradigma de transición» global a los SDCU existentes o futuros. Además, puede ser utilizado por los responsables políticos o municipales para mejorar las condiciones legales existentes y las estrategias locales de calor en relación con un sistema global. La tesis recomienda seguir investigando para la implementación del marco y una evaluación cuantitativa de la introducción de la competencia en los SDCU. / [CA] Els Sistemes de Distribució de Calor Urbans (SDCU) són una tecnologia madura per a la provisió eficient de calor a les ciutats. En el context de la crisi climàtica i de l'objectiu de descarbonitzar el sector de la calefacció, aquests sistemes poden exercir un paper molt important. En principi, els SDCU existents actualment estan basats principalment en l'ús de combustibles fòssils, per la qual cosa formen part del problema. No obstant això, mitjançant la integració de plantes de generació de calor renovables, els SDCU poden oferir un gran potencial per a donar suport a la transició cap a una provisió de calor sense combustibles fòssils. Aquesta transició es veu dificultada per diverses barreres. Per exemple, la necessitat de baixes temperatures de subministrament perquè la integració de les plantes renovables de generació de calor siga fructífera. No obstant això, atés que les plantes de generació de calor fòssils existents no es beneficien d'una reducció de la temperatura, existeix un efecte de bloqueig en els models de negoci establits. En la investigació actual, la resolució de les barreres se centra en solucions individuals per a qüestions específiques i en estratègies de calor per a un nivell general. Com les barreres estan fortament interrelacionades, les empreses de distribució de calor urbana requereixen una metodologia de transició sistèmica per a les seues activitats específiques en els diferents àmbits de planificació i operació. Després de constatar la seua absència en la bibliografia, la present tesi pretén desenvolupar una metodologia integral que facilite aquesta transició de manera profitosa. Per a la realització d'aquesta tasca, aquesta tesi introdueix un enfocament de marc que combina conceptes independents nous i existents, construint-se sobre una estructura dissenyada en els huit «àmbits» d'interés dels SDCU. Aquests àmbits dels SDCU classifiquen les activitats en els diferents camps de les problemàtiques d'aquest tipus de sistemes. Per a abordar les activitats de planificació i operació en les empreses de distribució de calor urbana, aquestes activitats s'integren en el nou «marc» que es classifica segons els tres àmbits dels SDCU: «disseny», «planificació operativa» i «operació». Aquest marc resumeix les activitats relacionades segons els processos i les vincula mitjançant mecanismes tècnics i econòmics. Aquests mecanismes es plantegen de manera que totes les activitats s'incentiven per a facilitar la transició. Es proposa una nova estructura organitzativa que permeta la introducció de la competència, al mateix temps que el marc assegura l'anomenada suboptimització, la prevenció de l'abús de poder en el mercat i la restricció de les inversions. A més, permet als productors de calor independents integrar-se en el sistema. Complementàriament, el marc integra les tecnologies més rellevants que ofereixen flexibilitat al sistema per a compensar les fluctuacions de la producció. En aquesta tesi s'ha desenvolupat un marc adequat per a aplicar un «paradigma de transició» global als SDCU existents o futurs. A més, pot ser utilitzat pels responsables polítics o municipals per a millorar les condicions legals existents i les estratègies locals de calor en relació amb un sistema global. La tesi recomana continuar investigant per a la implementació del marc i una avaluació quantitativa de la introducció de la competència en els SDCU. / [EN] District heating systems (DHSs) are a mature technology for an efficient heat supply in cities. In the context of the climate crisis and the related goal of a decarbonized heating sector, DHSs play an ambivalent role. As existing DHSs are mostly based on fossil fuels, they are part of the problem. However, as they can also integrate renewable heating plants, DHSs offer a great potential to support the transition towards a fossil-free heat supply. This transition is hindered by several barriers. For example, low supply temperatures are needed for the economically efficient integration of renewable heating plants. However, since existing fossil heating plants marginally benefit from a reduction of the temperature, a lock-in effect to the established business models exists. In the current research, resolving the barriers is focused either on individual solutions for specific issues or on heat strategies for a general level. Since the barriers are strongly interrelated, district heating (DH) companies require a systemic transition methodology for their specific activities in the different fields of planning and operation. Since such a transition methodology is identified as lacking in the literature, this thesis aims to develop a comprehensive methodology that facilitates the transition in an economically efficient way. To develop such a transition methodology, this thesis introduces a framework approach that combines new and existing independent concepts and that is built on a newly developed structure of eight "DH scopes." These DH scopes classify the activities in the different fields of DH concerns. To address the planning and operation activities in DH companies, these activities are integrated into the new "framework" that is classified according to the three DH scopes "design," "operative planning," and "operation." The framework summarizes the related activities according to processes and links them using technical and economic mechanisms. These mechanisms are considered in such a way that all activities are incentivized to facilitate the transition. A new organizational structure is proposed that allows for the introduction of competition while the framework secures so-called suboptimization, abuse of market power, or investment restraint. Independent heat producers are integrated in a system-serving way. The framework integrates the relevant technologies that offer flexibility to the system to compensate for fluctuation in production. In this thesis, a framework is devised that is suitable for implementing a comprehensive "transition paradigm" to existing or future DHSs. Further, it can be used by policymakers or municipalities to improve existing legal conditions and local heat strategies in relation to a comprehensive overall system. The thesis recommends further investigation for the implementation of the framework and a quantitative evaluation of the introduction of competition to DHSs. / Lorenzen, P. (2022). A Comprehensive Framework and Associated Methodology for the Design, Operative Planning, and Operation of District Heating Systems to Facilitate the Transition Towards a Fully Renewable Heat Supply [Tesis doctoral]. Universitat Politècnica de València. https://doi.org/10.4995/Thesis/10251/185882