In this thesis, the reliability of small wind turbines is studied. Both conventional reliability analysis methods and the novel Bayesian models (Bayesian Hierarchical Modelling (BHM)) are used to analyse the reliability performance of the Gaia-Wind turbines / assemblies and components of the Gaia-Wind turbine. In Chapter 2, a simple failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) is conducted. An approximated risk priority number (RPN) is calculated for each failure mode and assembly. The assembly that is identified to have the highest RPN is the "Rotor and Blade Assembly". As for the failure modes, "Blade Split" and "Generator Failure" failure modes are identified to have the highest RPNs. In Chapter 3, the conventional methods including the Kaplan-Meier Analysis, Weibull Plot Analysis, Homogeneous Poisson Process (HPP) Analysis, and Crow-AMSAA (Non-Homogeneous Poisson Process (NHPP)) Analysis are used to study the reliability performance of the generic turbine and the critical assemblies based on the approximated RPNs. By using these conventional methods, the L10 life can be approximated (Kaplan-Meier), the main failure modes of an assembly can be identified (Weibull Plot Analysis), the annual failure rate can be estimated (HPP), and the number of future failures can be predicted (NHPP). These methods have been implemented in a novel on-line interactive platform, named ReliaOS (Chapter 7), which effectively facilitates the process of converting the information in the warranty record to the meaningful reliability information. Three novel BHM models are proposed and implemented in WinBUGS (an open source software), namely the repair model, the environmental model, and the informative prior framework, (Chapter 5 and Chapter 6). The repair model is used to quantify the repair effectiveness of a generic repair action. The model is applied on both the turbine level as well as the component level. At the turbine level, the annual failure rate of the generic turbine is predicted to be 0:159 per turbine per year at the first year. Individual turbines can be categorised into different quality levels ("Good", "Good- Normal", "Normal", "Normal-Bad", and "Bad") based on the predicted annual failure rate values. At the component level, "Blade split", "Cracked Frame", and "Generator Failure" failure modes are studied. These are the most critical failure modes for "Rotor and Blade Assembly", "Tower, Foundation, and Nacelle", and "Generator" assemblies respectively. "Cracked Frame" failure mode is predicted to have the lowest characteristic life and a slightly increasing failure rate trend. The repair effectiveness of the "Cracked Frame" failure mode is identified to be slightly ineffective. The environmental model quantifies the influence of three environmental covariates, i.e. AverageWind Speed (AWS), Turbulence Intensity (TI), and Terrain Slope (TS). These environmental covariates are all identified to have negative impact to the reliability of the generic turbine, where TI and AWS have more pronounced impact than TS. The informative prior BHM framework offers a way of quantifying the reliability of the drivetrain frame (which corresponds to the "Cracked Frame" failure mode) in a situation where zero failure instance is recorded for the new drivetrain frame design. This is achieved by jointly considering the simulation results from SOLIDWORKS as the prior information into the BHM model. This thesis strives to understand the reliability performance of the Gaia-Wind small wind turbine from different perspectives, i.e. the generic turbine, individual turbines, and the components, by the use of conventional methods and the proposed BHM models. The novel on-line reliability platform, ReliaOS, mitigates the difficulties in converting the information in the data to the reliability information for the end users. It is believed that the proposed BHM models and the ReliaOS on-line reliability analysis platform will improve the reliability analysis of small-wind turbines.

Executive functioning is a multidimensional concept encompassing higher-order adaptive abilities, such as judgment, decision-making, self-monitoring, planning, and emotional regulation. Disruption in executive functioning often results in devastating impairments in vitally-important areas of life, such as one's ability to hold employment and maintain social relationships. Executive functions have been associated primarily with the prefrontal cortex. However, the nature and degree of the association between frontal lobe damage and performance on executive functioning tests remains controversial. Research suggests that the association may vary based on the specific location of damage within the prefrontal cortex, as well as the used measure of executive functioning. Few investigations have systematically addressed these variables. The current study employed the lesion method to investigate the relationship between performance on a battery of executive functioning tests and damage to specific regions of the prefrontal cortex. Three groups of participants with lesions in one of the locations of interest [ventromedial prefrontal (VMPC, n = 14), dorsolateral prefrontal (DLPC, n = 14), and non-frontal (n = 18)] were administered the Delis-Kaplan Executive Function System (D-KEFS, 2001), a comprehensive battery of executive functioning tests. Results revealed no statistically-significant differences between group performances on the D-KEFS primary measures. However, a qualitative analysis of the results revealed several meaningful group differences. It appears that some relationship exists between frontal lobe damage, particularly in the DLPC, and decreased performance on several executive functioning tests but further research overcoming the methodological limitations of most existing literature on this topic is needed to clearly resolve this issue.

A frequent problem that appears in practical survival data analysis is censoring. A censored observation occurs when the observation of the event time (duration or survival time) may be prevented by the occurrence of an earlier competing event (censoring time). Censoring may be due to different causes. For example, the loss of some subjects under study, the end of the follow-up period, drop out or the termination of the study and the limitation in the sensitivity of a measurement instrument. The literature about censored data focuses on the i.i.d. case. However in many real applications the data are collected sequentially in time or space and so the assumption of independence in such case does not hold. Here we only give some typical examples from the literature involving correlated data which are subject to censoring. In the clinical trials domain it frequently happens that the patients from the same hospital have correlated survival times due to unmeasured variables like the quality of the hospital equipment. Censored correlated data are also a common problem in the domain of environmental and spatial (geographical or ecological) statistics. In fact, due to the process being used in the data sampling procedure, e.g. the analytical equipment, only the measurements which exceed some thresholds, for example the method detection limits or the instrumental detection limits, can be included in the data analysis. Many other examples can also be found in other fields like econometrics and financial statistics. Observations on duration of unemployment e.g., may be right censored and are typically correlated. When the data are not independent and are subject to censoring, estimation and inference become more challenging mathematical problems with a wide area of applications. In this context, we propose here some new and flexible tools based on a nonparametric approach. More precisely, allowing dependence between individuals, our main contribution to this domain concerns the following aspects. First, we are interested in developing more suitable confidence intervals for a general class of functionals of a survival distribution via the empirical likelihood method. Secondly, we study the problem of conditional mean estimation using the local linear technique. Thirdly, we develop and study a new estimator of the conditional quantile function also based on the local linear method. In this dissertation, for each proposed method, asymptotic results like consistency and asymptotic normality are derived and the finite sample performance is evaluated in a simulation study.

A frequent problem that appears in practical survival data analysis is censoring. A censored observation occurs when the observation of the event time (duration or survival time) may be prevented by the occurrence of an earlier competing event (censoring time). Censoring may be due to different causes. For example, the loss of some subjects under study, the end of the follow-up period, drop out or the termination of the study and the limitation in the sensitivity of a measurement instrument. The literature about censored data focuses on the i.i.d. case. However in many real applications the data are collected sequentially in time or space and so the assumption of independence in such case does not hold. Here we only give some typical examples from the literature involving correlated data which are subject to censoring. In the clinical trials domain it frequently happens that the patients from the same hospital have correlated survival times due to unmeasured variables like the quality of the hospital equipment. Censored correlated data are also a common problem in the domain of environmental and spatial (geographical or ecological) statistics. In fact, due to the process being used in the data sampling procedure, e.g. the analytical equipment, only the measurements which exceed some thresholds, for example the method detection limits or the instrumental detection limits, can be included in the data analysis. Many other examples can also be found in other fields like econometrics and financial statistics. Observations on duration of unemployment e.g., may be right censored and are typically correlated. When the data are not independent and are subject to censoring, estimation and inference become more challenging mathematical problems with a wide area of applications. In this context, we propose here some new and flexible tools based on a nonparametric approach. More precisely, allowing dependence between individuals, our main contribution to this domain concerns the following aspects. First, we are interested in developing more suitable confidence intervals for a general class of functionals of a survival distribution via the empirical likelihood method. Secondly, we study the problem of conditional mean estimation using the local linear technique. Thirdly, we develop and study a new estimator of the conditional quantile function also based on the local linear method. In this dissertation, for each proposed method, asymptotic results like consistency and asymptotic normality are derived and the finite sample performance is evaluated in a simulation study.

We hypothesized that lymph node involvement in minor salivary gland cancers is associated with clinical and pathological factors commonly available to the clinician after a typical initial workup. Our aim was to identify these factors using a dataset that allowed us to compile the largest series of minor salivary gland cancers in the published literature. Using this dataset we also aimed to characterize the distribution of histological types by primary site, identify the predictors of the use of external beam radiation therapy and neck dissection, and examine the effect of lymph node involvement on survival. Using the SEER database, we identified 2667 minor salivary gland cancers with known lymph node status from 1988 to 2004. Univariate and multivariate analyses were conducted to identify factors associated with the use of neck dissection, the use of external beam radiation therapy, and the presence of cervical lymph node metastases. Kaplan Meier survival curves were constructed to examine the effect of lymph node involvement on survival. 426 (16.0%) patients had neck nodal involvement. Factors associated with neck nodal involvement on univariate analysis included increasing age, male gender, increasing tumor size, high tumor grade, T3-T4 stage, adenocarcinoma or mucoepidermoid carcinomas, and pharyngeal site of primary malignancy. On multivariate analysis, four statistically significant factors were identified, which included male gender, T3-T4 stage, pharyngeal site of primary malignancy, and high-grade adenocarcinoma or high-grade mucoepidermoid carcinomas. The proportions (and 95% confidence intervals) of patients with lymph node involvement for those with 0, 1, 2, 3 and 4 of these prognostic factors were 0.02 (0.01-0.03), 0.09 (0.07-0.11), 0.17 (0.14-0.21), 0.41 (0.33-0.49), and 0.70 (0.54-0.85) respectively. Grade was a significant predictor of metastasis for adenocarcinoma and mucoepidermoid carcinoma but not for adenoid cystic carcinoma. Overall survival was significantly worse at 5, 10, and 15 years for patients with lymph node involvement on presentation. A prognostic index using the four clinicopathological factors listed above can effectively differentiate patients into risk groups of nodal metastasis. The precision of this index is subject to the limitations of SEER data and it should be validated in further clinical studies.

In der Natur und in technischen Anwendungen findet man viele dynamische System mit zeitlicher Verzögerung (delay),zum Beispiel die Mackey-Glass Gleichung, die als Beschreibung vom Aufbau der Blutzelle angewendet wird, und die Ikeda Gleichung, die ein Modell von einem optischen Resonator ist. Hier ist zeitliche Verzögerung τ eine Konstante, aber sie ist nicht immer konstant in der Natur und in der Praxis. Wie sieht das System aus und welche Stabilitätseigenschaften hat es, wenn die Verzögerung schwankt? In dieser Arbeit benutze ich einige einfache diskrete Abbildungen, um die resultierenden Effekte zu untersuchen.

The objective of the present study is to investigate various problems associate with breast cancer and lung cancer patients. In this study, we compare the effectiveness of breast cancer treatments using decision tree analysis and come to the conclusion that although certain treatment shows overall effectiveness over the others, physicians or doctors should discretionally give different treatment to breast cancer patients based on their characteristics. Reoccurrence time of breast caner patients who receive different treatments are compared in an overall sense, histology type is also taken into consideration. To further understand the relation between relapse time and other variables, statistical models are applied to identify the attribute variables and predict the relapse time. Of equal importance, the transition between different breast cancer stages are analyzed through Markov Chain which not only gives the transition probability between stages for specific treatment but also provide guidance on breast cancer treatment based on stating information. Sensitivity analysis is conducted on breast cancer doubling time which involves two commonly used assumptions: spherical tumor and exponential growth of tumor and the analysis reveals that variation from those assumptions could cause very different statistical behavior of breast cancer doubling time. In lung cancer study, we investigate the mortality time of lung cancer patients from several different perspectives: gender, cigarettes per day and duration of smoking. Statistical model is also used to predict the mortality time of lung cancer patients.

As a consequence of increasing wind power installations in the Nordic grid the last years, the need for regulating power has become larger. In the Nordic grid, regulating power is mainly provided by hydro power. One part of the regulating power is called frequency control, which ensures that the grid frequency is stable and close to 50 Hz. However, setting the turbine into frequency controlled operation may cause stress and wear of the components in the mechanical control system. Frequency controlling implies large and frequent servo forces and longer travelling distance of the sliding bearings in the Kaplan turbine. Based on one selected Kaplan turbine, Selsfors G1, measurements and MATLAB calculations have been performed in order to determine forces and movements of the linkage system. With these forces and movements as input, stresses and fatigue have been determined as well as sliding distances, bearing pressures and wear of bearings during a typical lifetime of 40 years. The results indicate that no severe wear exists on the bearings during 40 years of service. This is valid for Selsfors G1, where self-lubricating greaseless Orkot bearings are installed. The wear is much smaller than the largest allowed bearing clearance, as long as the bearings are mounted correctly and free from dirt and oil. For turbines with grease or oil lubricated bearings, the result might differ. The highest average stresses have been recorded in the links in the runner. A very simple Finite Element Analysis has been made for the links, to estimate risk of fatigue. The stresses are much lower compared to the fatigue limit, and thus the risk of fatigue is considered very small. In situations where wear and large load changes after all are problems, a change in the turbine regulator settings is recommended. A dead band reduces the sliding distances of the bearings and the amount of load changes remarkably, but causes on the other hand lower turbine efficiency and worse quality of the frequency control.

Spiritual Care in Hospitals in the South Bohemian Region In contemporary holistic perspective, we see man as an integrated unity existing and functioning in four dimensions. These are biological, psychological, social and spiritual dimensions. All these spheres create a whole; they are inseparable and they influence each other. Therefore, caring for the ill can be characterized as a combination of these aspects {--} taking care of his biological needs, assistance in his social needs, identification and fulfilling of his psychological needs and help in meeting his spiritual needs. Spiritual needs are inherent in man{\crq}s nature and so it would be erroneous to suppose that they are present and pronounced only in people who are believers. The intensity of the urge to satisfy these needs changes during life. Research done on this topic has revealed that this kind of need intensifies in old age and illness. In some countries, it is already common that hospitals employ spiritual workers or hospital chaplains. In the Czech Republic, there has been a discussion going on regarding the introduction of the hospital chaplain function and several hospitals have one already. The goal of this work is to present an overview of the offer and ways of providing spiritual care in the individual hospitals in the South Bohemian region and to find out whether the offer of spiritual care in these hospitals corresponds with the needs and interest of the patients. The work should also find out what kind of spiritual assistance the patients are interested in {--} whether they would welcome if the hospitals employed their own chaplains or if regular visit of a clergyman suffice, and also, who should perform the role of the hospital chaplain {--} whether a clergyman or a qualified layman. The hypotheses will be verified through a quantitative research. To find out the intensity and kind of interest of patients in satisfying their spiritual needs and to ascertain the level of their satisfaction with offered services, a method of questionning will be used. The research will be conducted through a standardized questionnaire and a guided interview with patients who are unable to fill it in. Possible ways of satisfying spiritual needs will be assessed by the method of questionning through guided interviews with head nurses in the individual hospitals in the South Bohemian region.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-05-11T12:52:25Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 173.pdf: 1393850 bytes, checksum: f42a39478517a9d553079202299ea4eb (MD5) license.txt: 1748 bytes, checksum: 8a4605be74aa9ea9d79846c1fba20a33 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014 / Introducción: La introducción de la Terapia Antirretroviral de Gran Actividad (TARGA), ha reducido la morbi-mortalidad de los pacientes con VIH/SIDA tratados, yla mejora en su calidad de vida, debido al control de la replicación viral del VIH y a lamejoría del sistema inmune, conllevando a la disminución de las infecciones oportunistas.La TARGA busca conseguir la supresión virológica del VIH, que sólo se consigue entreun 57 por cento a 78 por cento de los pacientes en TARGA. La identificación de factores asociados a falla virológica puede tener implicaciones para el tratamiento de los pacientes con antirretrovirales. Metodología: Se trata de un estudio retrospectivo de 98 pacientes nuevos que iniciaron esquema de antirretrovirales de primera línea entre Mayo del 2004a Julio del 2005 en el Programa TARGA del Hospital Nacional Hipólito Unanue ubicadoen Lima Este, Lima-Perú y que desarrollaron falla virológica. El modelo de riesgos proporcionales de Cox fue utilizado para identificar los factores asociados a fallavirológica. Resultados: De 98 pacientes en TARGA, 67.3 por cento eran varones con edad media de 35.65 años. El 94 por cento recibió AZT ó D4T +3TC+NNTR. Se encontró que el 13.2 por cento desarrollaron falla virológica. La variable régimen inicial de TARGA tuvo un nivel designificación estadística limítrofe, relacionado a la falla virológica, en el análisis multivariado de Cox. Los pacientes con el régimen inicial de DDI+3TC+NNTR (DDIfue usada en vez de AZT), tuvieron un incremento de riesgo de 7 veces mayor (HR: 7.0IC95 por cento 0.93-49.6) de desarrollar falla virológica. (AU)^ies / Introduction: The introduction of Highly Active Antiretroviral Therapy (HAART) has reduced morbidity and mortality of patients with HIV / AIDS treated, and improving their quality of life, due to the control of HIV viral replication and improvement of the immune system, leading to decreased opportunistic infections. HAART therapy seeks to achieve virologic suppression of HIV that is only achieved between 57 percent to 78 percent of patients with antirretroviral therapy. The identification of factors associated with virologic failure may have implications for the treatment of patients with antiretrovirals. Methodology: This isa retrospective study of 98 new HIV patients which starting antiretroviral therapy between May 2004 to July 2005 in the HAART Program Hipólito Unanue National Hospital in Lima East, Lima-Peru and who developed virologic failure. The proportional hazards model of Cox was used to study all factors associated with virologic failure. Results: Of 98 patients on HAART, 67.3 percent were male with mean age of 35.65 years. 94 percent received AZT ó D4T +3TC+NNTR We found that 13.2 percent developed virologic failure. The variable HAART regimen had a borderline level of statistical significance related a virologic failure, patients with initial regimen with DDI + 3TC + NNTR (DDI was useinstead of AZT), were increased 7-fold greater risk (HR: 7.0 95 percent CI 0.93-49.6) todevelop virologic failure. (AU)^ien