Health problems of the human beings in a society are one of the main components of the social security systems due to the dimension of the financial burden it might bring on individuals, employers, insurance companies and governments. Morbidity measures, such as incidence and prevalence of a specific disease in a certain population enable researchers to estimate for individuals the probability of being diagnosed or being prone to the diseases. This information is usually not tractable because of the non-availability of the convenient data or recordings for many countries as well as Turkey. Even if it is available, it is commonly limited with largely varying characteristics about the type and coverage of the diseases. In this regard, the pattern that a population follows for an acute disease may not be the same for chronic diseases. Having those indicators determined for a group of insureds will enable underwriters to have more profitable and economical premium calculation and precision on required reserve estimation. v Based on their characteristics such as acute or chronic behaviour, the gender, and the location of residency of people, the diseases show different behaviour on their occurrences. From the insurer

Les aliments peuvent être contaminés par certaines substances chimiques, qui, lorsqu'elles sont ingérées à des doses trop importantes, peuvent engendrer des problèmes de santé. Notre but est d'évaluer la probabilité que l'exposition au contaminant dépasse durablement une dose tolérable par l'organisme que nous appelons risque. La modélisation de la queue de distribution par des lois extrêmes permet de quantifier un risque très faible. Dans les autres cas, l'estimateur empirique du risque s'écrit comme une U-statistique généralisée, ce qui permet d'en dériver les propriétés asymptotiques. Des développements statistiques permettent d'intégrer à ce modèle la censure des données de contamination. Enfin, un modèle économétrique de décomposition de données ménage en données individuelles nous permet de proposer une nouvelle méthode de quantification du risque de long terme prenant en compte l'accumulation du contaminant et sa lente dégradation par l'organisme.

In reliability studies, the goal is to gain knowledge about a product's failure times or life expectancy. Precedence tests do not require large sample sizes and are used in reliability studies to compare the life-time distributions from two samples. Precedence tests are useful since they provide reliable results early in a life-test and the surviving units can be used in other tests. Ng and Balakrishnan (2010) proposed a precedence-type test based on the Kaplan-Meier estimator of the cumulative distribution function. A precedence-type test based on the Nelson-Aalen estimator of the cumulative hazard function has been proposed. This test was developed for both Type-II right censoring and progressive Type-II right censoring. Numerical results, including illustrative examples, critical values and a power study have been provided. The results from this test were compared with those from the test based on the Kaplan-Meier estimator.

In reliability studies, the goal is to gain knowledge about a product's failure times or life expectancy. Precedence tests do not require large sample sizes and are used in reliability studies to compare the life-time distributions from two samples. Precedence tests are useful since they provide reliable results early in a life-test and the surviving units can be used in other tests. Ng and Balakrishnan (2010) proposed a precedence-type test based on the Kaplan-Meier estimator of the cumulative distribution function. A precedence-type test based on the Nelson-Aalen estimator of the cumulative hazard function has been proposed. This test was developed for both Type-II right censoring and progressive Type-II right censoring. Numerical results, including illustrative examples, critical values and a power study have been provided. The results from this test were compared with those from the test based on the Kaplan-Meier estimator.

Resumo: No Brasil, existem poucos estudos sobre longevidade de vacas de corte, principalmente utilizando ferramentas de análise de sobrevivência na estimação de parâmetros genéticos. Todavia, os critérios para avaliar esta característica são vários, tal que em alguns destes nem todos os registros das vacas nos rebanhos podem ser levados em consideração, devido à metodologia de análise utilizada. Uma variável que é de fácil mensuração e já faz parte da maioria dos controles zootécnicos das fazendas é a idade da vaca ao último parto (IVUP). Neste trabalho, objetivo foi avaliar a longevidade das vacas nos rebanhos utilizando a variável IVUP, por meio da metodologia de análise de sobrevivência. Esta variável foi utilizada mediante um critério para analisar a longevidade produtiva de vacas nos rebanhos. O critério adotado foi a diferença entre a data em relação ao último parto de cada vaca e a data do último parto de cada fazenda. Se esta diferença foi superior a 36 meses, a vaca falhou e foi considerada descartada. Caso contrário, esta vaca foi censurada, indicando que esta ainda poderia ter futuras parições. O critério de 36 meses foi proposto por ser período suficiente para a ocorrência de um novo parto. A metodologia de análise de sobrevivência foi utilizada por considerar dados censurados e não censurados. As variáveis: estação e ano de nascimento de cada vaca, a fazenda e a idade ao primeiro parto foram utilizadas para as análises da variável IVUP. Um estudo prévio por meio de curvas de Kaplan-Meier e o modelo de Cox, utilizando a distribuição gama para os touros, desconsiderando o parentesco entre eles, foram realizados. O software Survival Kit foi empregado para estimação dos parâmetros genéticos, levando em consideração o parentesco entre os animais. Verificou-se que a IVUP apresentou herdabilidade de 0,25, e que seu uso permite avaliar a ... (Resumo completo, clicar acesso eletrônico abaixo) / Abstract: In Brazil, there are few studies about stayability, especially using tools of survival analysis in the estimation of breeding values and heritability. The criteria for evaluating this characteristic are different, such that in some of these not all information in the herds of cows can be taken into consideration, because the method of analysis used. In addition, the definitions that consider the date of disposal of the animal affect the use of information obtained in practice, because until the cows come out of the flock may take years, thus the evaluation of their parents is impaired, since the goal is selection. A variable that is easy to measure and is already part of most controls husbandry farms are cow age at last birth (IVUP). This variable was used by one criterion to analyze the productive longevity of cows in herds. The criterion was the difference between the date from the last delivery date of each cow and the last part of each farm. If this difference was more than 36 months, the cow was considered failed and discarded. Otherwise, this cow was censored, indicating that this could still have further parities. The criterion of 36 months was proposed to be sufficient time for the occurrence of a new birth. The methodology of survival analysis was used. The variables season and year of birth of each cow, farm and age at first birth were used for analysis of variable IVUP. The objective of this study was to evaluate the performance of the variable IVUP through estimates of genetic and fixed effect, to study the longevity of cows in the herd. A previous study by Kaplan-Meier and Cox model using the gamma distribution for the bulls, disregarding the relationship between them, were performed. The Survival Kit software was used to estimate the genetic parameters, taking into account the relationship between the animals. It was found that the heritability of 0.25 for IVUP ... (Complete abstract click electronic access below) / Orientador: Danísio Prado Munari / Coorientador: Claudia Cristina Paro da Paz / Coorientador: Raysildo Barbosa Lobo / Banca: João Ademir de Oliveira / Banca: Henrique Nunes De Oliveira / Banca: Roberto Carvalheiro / Banca: Lenira El Faro Zadra / Doutor

At my place of work, we are considering the possibility of spiritual service inception within the Czech Republic Police force. One of our models, which we stem from, is the Czech Army Military Chaplaincy. We, therefore, go into the history of its inception and its current activities, at a fairly great length. Furthermore, we have mapped the Czech Republic Police activities, whose character matches the activities of the military chaplains. By comparison and evaluation of the researched information, we will set the possibility and desirability of chaplaincy and spiritual service within the Czech Republic Police. Basic and key information was acquired by study of the literature and of the official internet sources. The additional and clarifying information was acquired through personal discussion and communication with professionals in various related fields.

Os estimadores para parÃmetros populacionais em amostras coletadas pelo mÃtodo de amostragem Respondent Driven Sampling (RDS) sÃo sensÃveis à presenÃa de observaÃÃes ignoradas e tendem a subestimar os parÃmetros populacionais. A ausÃncia de um quadro de amostragem bem definido para a coleta de amostras em populaÃÃes consideradas escondidas e/ou de acesso difÃcil fez com que o RDS se tornasse uma importante ferramenta de vigilÃncia comportamental e biolÃgica nessas populaÃÃes com maior risco para o HIV, em especial no Brasil. Considerado um mÃtodo de amostragem em cadeia de referÃncia, o RDS utiliza informaÃÃes sobre as conexÃes das redes sociais para obter estimadores contingentes assintoticamente imparciais das caracterÃsticas populacionais e a precisÃo desses estimadores. Estudo multicÃntrico de corte transversal para vigilÃncia epidemiolÃgica e comportamental em populaÃÃes de HSH com 18 anos ou mais foi realizado em dez cidades brasileiras (Manaus, Recife, Salvador, Campo Grande, BrasÃlia, Curitiba, ItajaÃ, Santos, Belo Horizonte e Rio de Janeiro) no ano de 2009 e, coleta, em cada municÃpio, uma amostra pelo RDS. Neste estudo, foi oferecido o teste rÃpido para diagnÃstico da infecÃÃo por HIV Ãqueles que aceitam participar de um prÃ-aconselhamento. Todos os participantes foram inquiridos sobre a realizaÃÃo de testes anti-HIV anteriores ao da pesquisa e sobre qual o diagnÃstico obtido. Com a simulaÃÃo de uma variÃvel dicotÃmica (exemplo: sorologia para HIV positiva ou negativa) sem observaÃÃes ignoradas na rede de recrutamento do Rio de Janeiro e posteriores exclusÃes de 18 recrutados, encontra-se que, a amostra com ignorados à avaliada com base em um nÃmero de observaÃÃes significativamente menor que o da amostra original e o parÃmetro em questÃo (prevalÃncia do HIV) à subestimado. Ainda, com a imputaÃÃo Ãnica das sorologias ignoradas, no contexto descritivo, observam-se, nas amostras com imputaÃÃo, marcadores biolÃgicos que indicam valores mais acurados. No estudo multicÃntrico, para o grupo de participantes que autorrelatou sorologia positiva ou negativa para o HIV e realizou teste rÃpido na pesquisa, observa-se para os autorrelatos elevada concordÃncia (0,88) e sensibilidade de 100% com o padrÃo-ouro teste rÃpido para diagnÃstico do HIV. Finalmente, estimando a prevalÃncia para o HIV nas amostras observadas por municÃpio e geral, e, com a proposta da imputaÃÃo pelo autorrelato do HIV positivo e posterior atribuiÃÃo de sorologia HIV +/- mediante trÃs propostas de imputaÃÃes: todos sÃo negativos, proximidade dos participantes na rede de recrutamento e pela regressÃo logÃstica. Encontra-se nas amostras coletadas a estimativa geral da prevalÃncia do HIV igual a 11,1% sendo, por municÃpio, a menor prevalÃncia em Santos (2,6%) e a maior no Rio de Janeiro (17,6%). Com as imputaÃÃes as prevalÃncias tendem a aumentar e as maiores estimativas sÃo encontradas com a imputaÃÃo por meio da regressÃo logÃstica em sete de nove municÃpios avaliados por essa metodologia. A estimativa geral do HIV pela regressÃo logÃstica à 14,2% sendo, por municÃpio, a menor prevalÃncia no Recife (5,2%) e a maior em BrasÃlia (23,7%). A imputaÃÃo da sorologia de infecÃÃo por HIV pela regressÃo logÃstica ocorre por municÃpio e por intermÃdio de um modelo com acurÃcia mÃnima igual a 70%. / The estimators for population parameters in samples collected by sampling Respondent Driven Sampling (RDS) are sensitive to the presence of observations ignored and tends to underestimate the population parameters. The absence of a clearly defined sampling frame for the collection of samples from populations considered hidden and/or difficult access made the RDS became an important tool for biological and behavioral surveillance in these populations at higher risk for HIV, especially Brazil. Considered a method of sampling in the reference chain, RDS uses information about the connections of social networks for specific asymptotically unbiased estimators of population characteristics and accuracy of these estimators. Multicenter cross-sectional epidemiological and behavioral surveillance for MSM populations in 18 years or more was conducted in 10 cities (Manaus, Recife, Salvador, Campo Grande, Brasilia, Curitiba, ItajaÃ, Santos, Belo Horizonte and Rio de Janeiro) in 2009 and collected in each municipality, a sample through RDS. This study offered the rapid test for diagnosis of HIV infection to those who agreed to participate in a pre-counseling. All participants were asked about testing for HIV prior to the research and about which the diagnosis obtained. By simulating a dichotomous variable (eg, HIV serology positive or negative) without comment ignored in recruiting network in Rio de Janeiro and later recruited 18 deletions, that is, the unknown sample is evaluated from a number of observations significantly smaller than the original sample and the parameter in question (HIV prevalence) is underestimated. Still, with the allocation of single serology ignored in the descriptive context, it is observed in samples with attribution, biological markers indicating that more accurate values. Multicentre study for the group of participants who self-reported positive or negative serology for HIV rapid test and performed the research notes to self-reports, high correlation (0.88) and 100% sensitivity with gold standard rapid test for HIV diagnosis. Finally, estimating the prevalence of HIV in the samples observed by county and general, and the proposed allocation of the self-reported HIV positive and HIV serology subsequent assignment of + / - through three proposed charges: are all negative, proximity of the participants in the network recruitment and by logistic regression. It is found in samples collected from the estimated overall HIV prevalence was equal to 11.1%, by municipality, the lower prevalence in Santos (2.6%) and highest in Rio de Janeiro (17.6%).With the charges tend to increase the prevalence and the highest estimates are found with the imputation logistic regression in 7 of 9 municipalities assessed by this methodology. The estimated overall HIV logistic regression is 14.2% and, by municipality, the lower prevalence in Recife (5.2%) and highest in Brasilia (23.7%). The allocation of serology for HIV by the Logistic Regression occurs by municipality and by a model with a minimum accuracy of 70%.

Orientador: Maria Lucia Senna Machado Pascoal / Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de Artes / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-04T03:59:58Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Taffarello_TadeuMoraes_M.pdf: 8570568 bytes, checksum: 087cb951d302380656417cd25f009403 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2004 / Resumo: Os principais objetivos deste trabalho são: apresentar um estudo de análise musical; descobrir a estrutura, o material, as alturas, os ritmos, as texturas e os timbres, observando as técnicas de composição em peças do repertório de trompete na música de câmara escritas no século XX. As composições que serão trabalhadas são: MAHLE, E. Concertino para trompete e cordas. Edição digitalizada: Escola de Música de Piracicaba, 1976; e KAPLAN, J. A. Sonata para trompete e piano. Manuscrito, 1987. Apresenta, também, as semelhanças e as diferenças nas técnicas de composição das peças escolhidas. Para isso, parte das seguintes questões: Como um compositor pensa a música de câmara para trompete escrita no Brasil no século XX? Quais os elementos estruturais das peças? Quais as semelhanças e diferenças encontradas? A metodologia constou do estudo das peças e das técnicas de análise, e da aplicação das análises. Ao final, procura-se comparar e investigar as ligações possíveis entre elas. Entre os resultados esperados, conta-se contribuir para o conhecimento através da musicologia brasileira e divulgar a música de câmara para trompete criada no Brasil no século XX / Abstract: The main goals of this paper are: to demonstrate a musical analysis study; to find out the structure, the material, the pitches, the rhythms, the textures and the timbres, observing the composition techniques related to the trumpet chamber music repertoire written in the 20th century. The composition that will be studied are: MAHLE, E. Concertino para trompete e cordas. Piracicaba: School of music, 1976; and KAPLAN, J. A. Sonata para trompete e piano. João Pessoa: manuscript, 1987. It also demonstrates the differences and similarities of the composition techniques in the chosen pieces. In order to accomplish this major task, it will begin from these following questions: How does a composer think the 20th century Brazilian trumpet chamber music? Which are the works¿ structural elements? Which are the differences and the similarities found? The methodology consisted in the study of the pieces and of the analyses technique; and the application of the analyses. Finally, it seeks to investigate and compare the possible connections between them. There also is the assumption of the contribution of this assignment for the Brazilian musicology and to disclose the 20th century Brazilian trumpet chamber music / Mestrado / Musica / Mestre em Música

Ce mémoire a pour but de s’intéresser au traitement du corps dans les créations littéraires et cinématographiques de Nelly Kaplan, à la manière dont il est perçu et aux normes (sociales, historiques, politiques) qui le façonnent. À travers l’analyse de trois œuvres significatives de Kaplan, soit le recueil de nouvelles Le Réservoir des sens, le film culte La Fiancée du pirate ainsi que le récit Un manteau de fou rire, l’étude cherche à faire connaître la démarche de l’auteure-artiste qui met en œuvre des modes de vie où règnent les libertés sexuelle et morale, au grand bonheur des personnages littéraires et cinématographiques. L’auteure-artiste met effectivement à distance certaines idées reçues sur les corps féminin et masculin grâce notamment à des stratégies d’humour et d’ironie, ce qui la conduit à remettre en cause le système traditionnel des identités sexuées et sexuelles, basé sur des binarismes (masculin/féminin ; bien/mal ; intellectuel/sentimental ; clair/obscur ; etc.). Ses créations sont empreintes d’un désir de libération qui se manifeste à travers la révolte (érotique) que portent en eux les personnages et qui les amène à s’émanciper des idéaux petit-bourgeois, dont la morale catholique. Kaplan se livre ainsi à la déconstruction des règles morales et politiques et propose une nouvelle organisation du monde basée sur le respect des pulsions et des désirs individuels. / This master’s thesis concentrates on the human body ; how it is perceived in the context of social, historical and political norms that shape it. The thesis focuses on the approach of Nelly Kaplan who introduces lifestyles where sexual and moral freedom reigns, to the delight of the protagonists featured in her work. This is accomplished through analysis of three significant works by Kaplan : a collection of short stories called Le Réservoir des sens ; the cult-movie La Fiancée du pirate ; and the narrative Un manteau de fou rire. Kaplan attacks preconceived and historical prejudices about the male and female body through humour and irony, which leads to Kaplan questioning an outdated paradigm that is the binarity of sexual identities. Her creations are marked by the desire for liberation, which is expressed through an (erotic) revolt carried out by her characters. This act leads them to emancipate themselves from the petite bourgeoisie catholic ideal. Kaplan thus engages in the deconstruction of moral and political rules and proposes a new organization of the world based on respect for individual impulses and desires.

The master's thesis deals mainly with continuous nonlinear dynamical systems that exhibit chaotic behavior. The main goal is to create algorithms for chaos detection and their subsequent testing on known models. Most of the thesis is devoted to the estimation of the Lyapunov exponents, further it deals with the estimation of the fractal dimension of an attractor and summarizes the 0--1 test. The thesis includes three algorithms created in MATLAB -- an algorithm for estimating the largest Lyapunov exponent and two algorithms for estimating the entire Lyapunov spectra. These algorithms are then tested on five continuous dynamical systems. Especially the error of estimation, speed of these algorithms and properties of Lyapunov exponents in different areas of system behavior are investigated.