Modelos de ocorrência e abundância de espécies são importantes ferramentas para a elaboração de estrategias para a conservação da biodiversidade. Nestes artigos aplicamos, pela primeira vez, modelos de distribuição e abundância no entorno de uma Usina Hidroelétrica no Sul do Brasil, com o objetivo de mostrar possíveis aplicações destas técnicas no planejamento de ações de coleta e conservação, in situ e ex situ, destas espécies. Nossos objetivos secundários foram (i) modelar a ocorrência e abundância de plantas em um trecho da bacia do rio Pelotas e (ii) verificar o efeito da detectabilidade em modelos de ocorrência. Para tanto dividimos a tese em dois capítulos e cinco questões. No primeiro capítulo procuramos responder as seguintes questões: (1) existe relação entre a probabilidade de ocorrência e a abundância observada? (2) Modelos baseados na abundância são melhores para predizer a ocorrência de espécies do que modelos baseados apenas na ocorrência das espécies? No segundo capítulo, tentamos responder se (3) amostragens exaustivas, com presenças e ausências bem descritas, produzem modelos de ocorrência mais precisos? (4) Se a relação entre a ocorrência da espécie e as variáveis ambientais que descrevem sua distribuição é alterada de acordo com a detectabilidade? (5) Qual o impacto de falsos zeros na área ocupada estimada para a espécie? O trabalho foi realizado no entorno da UHE Barra Grande, erguida no rio Pelotas, entre os Estados de Santa Catarina e Rio Grande do Sul. Localizada na bacia do rio Pelotas, seu reservatório ocupa uma área de aproximadamente 90 km2 e seu entorno perfaz uma área aproximada de 4.600 km2, onde amostramos 388 parcelas georreferenciadas (10 x 50 m) distribuídas aleatoriamente. Em cada parcela contamos o número de indivíduos de nove espécies arborescente com altura ≥ 1,5 m. No primeiro artigo, modelamos, utilizando modelos lineares generalizados (GLM), a distribuição e abundância das nove espécies estudadas em relação a 15 variáveis ambientais, e demonstramos que modelos de ocorrência são mais precisos do que modelos de abundância. Demonstramos também que a probabilidade de ocorrência é positivamente correlacionada com a abundância observada, o que abre a possibilidade de utilizarmos a probabilidade de ocorrência como um indicador da abundância das espécies. No segundo capítulo, verificamos o impacto de falhas de detecção em modelos de distribuição de espécies, utilizando como espécie modelo A. angustifolia. Simulamos o impacto de falsos zeros na precisão dos modelos, na seleção das variáveis resposta (variáveis ambientais) e nas estimativas de área ocupada pela espécie. A redução da detectabilidade ocasionou alterações tanto na precisão dos modelos quanto na área estimada de ocorrência e nas variáveis ambientais que explicam a ocorrência de A. angustifolia. A área ocupada não apresentou padrão bem definido, porém mostrou tendência de elevação de acordo com a diminuição da detectabilidade, elevando com isso o erro de comissão dos modelos. A precisão dos modelos (AUC e correlação entre probabilidade de ocorrência e abundância observada), apresentou queda em relação ao redução da detectabilidade, enquanto apenas uma variável ambiental foi incluída em todos os modelos (pH do solo). Existe um grande possibilidade de uso destas técnicas como informação básica para planos de conservação, monitoramento e manejo da biodiversidade no entorno de empreendimentos hidroelétricos, porém, para que possamos tirar inferências fortes sobre as espécies e ecossistemas em questão, devemos observar sempre a necessidade de levar em conta os impactos da detecção imperfeita das espécies. / Species occurrence and abundance models are important tools in the development of biodiversity conservation strategies. This study presents, for the first time, the application of distribution and abundance models in the environment surrounding a hydropower dam in southern Brazil. The aim is to demonstrate the possible application of these techniques in planning collection and conservation strategies of the species inhabiting the area, in situ and ex situ. We also aimed at (i) modeling the occurrence and abundance of plants in a section of the Pelotas River basin and (ii) verifying the effect of detectability in occurrence models. This thesis was therefore divided into two chapters and five questions. The first chapter is an attempt to answer the following questions: (1) Is there a relationship between occurrence probability and abundance? (2) Are models based on abundance better to predict the occurrence of species as compared to models that utilize only species occurrence? The second chapter addresses the questions: (3) Do exhaustive sampling procedures, with well-sampled presences and absences, lead to more accurate occurrence models? (4) Does detectability influence the relationship between species occurrence and environmental variables? (5) What is the impact of false zeros in the estimated area occupied by one given species? This study was conducted in the area surrounding the hydropower plant “Barra Grande”, in the Pelotas River, on the border of the Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina states. Located in the Pelotas River basin, the dam occupies an area of approximately 90 km². The surrounding area accounts for 4,600 km², where 388 plots with 10 x 50 m were randomly distributed and georeferenced. In each plot, individuals of nine selected tree species taller than 1.5 m were surveyed. In the first paper, we modeled the distribution and abundance of the species studied using generalized linear models (GLMs), utilizing 15 environmental variables. Occurrence models were proved to be more accurate than abundance models. The positive correlation between occurrence probability and observed abundance was also demonstrated, which opens the possibility to utilize occurrence probability as an indicator of species abundance. The second chapter reports the impact of failures in detection in species distribution models, using A. angustifolia as model species. We simulated the impact of false zeros in model accuracy, in the selection of response variables (environmental variables) and in estimates of the area occupied by A. angustifolia. The decrease in detectability caused changes in both model accuracy and in the environmental variables that explain the occurrence of A. angustifolia. The area occupied did not have a well-defined pattern, though it showed a trend towards elevation, in accordance with the decrease in detectability, thus raising the commission error in the model. The accuracy of models (AUC and correlation between occurrence probability and observed abundance) decreased with the decrease in detectability, while only one environmental variable was included in all models (soil pH). These techniques offer great potential in the collection of essential information in biodiversity conservation, monitoring and managements strategies in hydropower projects. However, robust inferences about species and ecosystems in question can only be drawn considering the need to evaluate the impact caused by defective species detection.

Modelos de ocorrência e abundância de espécies são importantes ferramentas para a elaboração de estrategias para a conservação da biodiversidade. Nestes artigos aplicamos, pela primeira vez, modelos de distribuição e abundância no entorno de uma Usina Hidroelétrica no Sul do Brasil, com o objetivo de mostrar possíveis aplicações destas técnicas no planejamento de ações de coleta e conservação, in situ e ex situ, destas espécies. Nossos objetivos secundários foram (i) modelar a ocorrência e abundância de plantas em um trecho da bacia do rio Pelotas e (ii) verificar o efeito da detectabilidade em modelos de ocorrência. Para tanto dividimos a tese em dois capítulos e cinco questões. No primeiro capítulo procuramos responder as seguintes questões: (1) existe relação entre a probabilidade de ocorrência e a abundância observada? (2) Modelos baseados na abundância são melhores para predizer a ocorrência de espécies do que modelos baseados apenas na ocorrência das espécies? No segundo capítulo, tentamos responder se (3) amostragens exaustivas, com presenças e ausências bem descritas, produzem modelos de ocorrência mais precisos? (4) Se a relação entre a ocorrência da espécie e as variáveis ambientais que descrevem sua distribuição é alterada de acordo com a detectabilidade? (5) Qual o impacto de falsos zeros na área ocupada estimada para a espécie? O trabalho foi realizado no entorno da UHE Barra Grande, erguida no rio Pelotas, entre os Estados de Santa Catarina e Rio Grande do Sul. Localizada na bacia do rio Pelotas, seu reservatório ocupa uma área de aproximadamente 90 km2 e seu entorno perfaz uma área aproximada de 4.600 km2, onde amostramos 388 parcelas georreferenciadas (10 x 50 m) distribuídas aleatoriamente. Em cada parcela contamos o número de indivíduos de nove espécies arborescente com altura ≥ 1,5 m. No primeiro artigo, modelamos, utilizando modelos lineares generalizados (GLM), a distribuição e abundância das nove espécies estudadas em relação a 15 variáveis ambientais, e demonstramos que modelos de ocorrência são mais precisos do que modelos de abundância. Demonstramos também que a probabilidade de ocorrência é positivamente correlacionada com a abundância observada, o que abre a possibilidade de utilizarmos a probabilidade de ocorrência como um indicador da abundância das espécies. No segundo capítulo, verificamos o impacto de falhas de detecção em modelos de distribuição de espécies, utilizando como espécie modelo A. angustifolia. Simulamos o impacto de falsos zeros na precisão dos modelos, na seleção das variáveis resposta (variáveis ambientais) e nas estimativas de área ocupada pela espécie. A redução da detectabilidade ocasionou alterações tanto na precisão dos modelos quanto na área estimada de ocorrência e nas variáveis ambientais que explicam a ocorrência de A. angustifolia. A área ocupada não apresentou padrão bem definido, porém mostrou tendência de elevação de acordo com a diminuição da detectabilidade, elevando com isso o erro de comissão dos modelos. A precisão dos modelos (AUC e correlação entre probabilidade de ocorrência e abundância observada), apresentou queda em relação ao redução da detectabilidade, enquanto apenas uma variável ambiental foi incluída em todos os modelos (pH do solo). Existe um grande possibilidade de uso destas técnicas como informação básica para planos de conservação, monitoramento e manejo da biodiversidade no entorno de empreendimentos hidroelétricos, porém, para que possamos tirar inferências fortes sobre as espécies e ecossistemas em questão, devemos observar sempre a necessidade de levar em conta os impactos da detecção imperfeita das espécies. / Species occurrence and abundance models are important tools in the development of biodiversity conservation strategies. This study presents, for the first time, the application of distribution and abundance models in the environment surrounding a hydropower dam in southern Brazil. The aim is to demonstrate the possible application of these techniques in planning collection and conservation strategies of the species inhabiting the area, in situ and ex situ. We also aimed at (i) modeling the occurrence and abundance of plants in a section of the Pelotas River basin and (ii) verifying the effect of detectability in occurrence models. This thesis was therefore divided into two chapters and five questions. The first chapter is an attempt to answer the following questions: (1) Is there a relationship between occurrence probability and abundance? (2) Are models based on abundance better to predict the occurrence of species as compared to models that utilize only species occurrence? The second chapter addresses the questions: (3) Do exhaustive sampling procedures, with well-sampled presences and absences, lead to more accurate occurrence models? (4) Does detectability influence the relationship between species occurrence and environmental variables? (5) What is the impact of false zeros in the estimated area occupied by one given species? This study was conducted in the area surrounding the hydropower plant “Barra Grande”, in the Pelotas River, on the border of the Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina states. Located in the Pelotas River basin, the dam occupies an area of approximately 90 km². The surrounding area accounts for 4,600 km², where 388 plots with 10 x 50 m were randomly distributed and georeferenced. In each plot, individuals of nine selected tree species taller than 1.5 m were surveyed. In the first paper, we modeled the distribution and abundance of the species studied using generalized linear models (GLMs), utilizing 15 environmental variables. Occurrence models were proved to be more accurate than abundance models. The positive correlation between occurrence probability and observed abundance was also demonstrated, which opens the possibility to utilize occurrence probability as an indicator of species abundance. The second chapter reports the impact of failures in detection in species distribution models, using A. angustifolia as model species. We simulated the impact of false zeros in model accuracy, in the selection of response variables (environmental variables) and in estimates of the area occupied by A. angustifolia. The decrease in detectability caused changes in both model accuracy and in the environmental variables that explain the occurrence of A. angustifolia. The area occupied did not have a well-defined pattern, though it showed a trend towards elevation, in accordance with the decrease in detectability, thus raising the commission error in the model. The accuracy of models (AUC and correlation between occurrence probability and observed abundance) decreased with the decrease in detectability, while only one environmental variable was included in all models (soil pH). These techniques offer great potential in the collection of essential information in biodiversity conservation, monitoring and managements strategies in hydropower projects. However, robust inferences about species and ecosystems in question can only be drawn considering the need to evaluate the impact caused by defective species detection.

Modelos de ocorrência e abundância de espécies são importantes ferramentas para a elaboração de estrategias para a conservação da biodiversidade. Nestes artigos aplicamos, pela primeira vez, modelos de distribuição e abundância no entorno de uma Usina Hidroelétrica no Sul do Brasil, com o objetivo de mostrar possíveis aplicações destas técnicas no planejamento de ações de coleta e conservação, in situ e ex situ, destas espécies. Nossos objetivos secundários foram (i) modelar a ocorrência e abundância de plantas em um trecho da bacia do rio Pelotas e (ii) verificar o efeito da detectabilidade em modelos de ocorrência. Para tanto dividimos a tese em dois capítulos e cinco questões. No primeiro capítulo procuramos responder as seguintes questões: (1) existe relação entre a probabilidade de ocorrência e a abundância observada? (2) Modelos baseados na abundância são melhores para predizer a ocorrência de espécies do que modelos baseados apenas na ocorrência das espécies? No segundo capítulo, tentamos responder se (3) amostragens exaustivas, com presenças e ausências bem descritas, produzem modelos de ocorrência mais precisos? (4) Se a relação entre a ocorrência da espécie e as variáveis ambientais que descrevem sua distribuição é alterada de acordo com a detectabilidade? (5) Qual o impacto de falsos zeros na área ocupada estimada para a espécie? O trabalho foi realizado no entorno da UHE Barra Grande, erguida no rio Pelotas, entre os Estados de Santa Catarina e Rio Grande do Sul. Localizada na bacia do rio Pelotas, seu reservatório ocupa uma área de aproximadamente 90 km2 e seu entorno perfaz uma área aproximada de 4.600 km2, onde amostramos 388 parcelas georreferenciadas (10 x 50 m) distribuídas aleatoriamente. Em cada parcela contamos o número de indivíduos de nove espécies arborescente com altura ≥ 1,5 m. No primeiro artigo, modelamos, utilizando modelos lineares generalizados (GLM), a distribuição e abundância das nove espécies estudadas em relação a 15 variáveis ambientais, e demonstramos que modelos de ocorrência são mais precisos do que modelos de abundância. Demonstramos também que a probabilidade de ocorrência é positivamente correlacionada com a abundância observada, o que abre a possibilidade de utilizarmos a probabilidade de ocorrência como um indicador da abundância das espécies. No segundo capítulo, verificamos o impacto de falhas de detecção em modelos de distribuição de espécies, utilizando como espécie modelo A. angustifolia. Simulamos o impacto de falsos zeros na precisão dos modelos, na seleção das variáveis resposta (variáveis ambientais) e nas estimativas de área ocupada pela espécie. A redução da detectabilidade ocasionou alterações tanto na precisão dos modelos quanto na área estimada de ocorrência e nas variáveis ambientais que explicam a ocorrência de A. angustifolia. A área ocupada não apresentou padrão bem definido, porém mostrou tendência de elevação de acordo com a diminuição da detectabilidade, elevando com isso o erro de comissão dos modelos. A precisão dos modelos (AUC e correlação entre probabilidade de ocorrência e abundância observada), apresentou queda em relação ao redução da detectabilidade, enquanto apenas uma variável ambiental foi incluída em todos os modelos (pH do solo). Existe um grande possibilidade de uso destas técnicas como informação básica para planos de conservação, monitoramento e manejo da biodiversidade no entorno de empreendimentos hidroelétricos, porém, para que possamos tirar inferências fortes sobre as espécies e ecossistemas em questão, devemos observar sempre a necessidade de levar em conta os impactos da detecção imperfeita das espécies. / Species occurrence and abundance models are important tools in the development of biodiversity conservation strategies. This study presents, for the first time, the application of distribution and abundance models in the environment surrounding a hydropower dam in southern Brazil. The aim is to demonstrate the possible application of these techniques in planning collection and conservation strategies of the species inhabiting the area, in situ and ex situ. We also aimed at (i) modeling the occurrence and abundance of plants in a section of the Pelotas River basin and (ii) verifying the effect of detectability in occurrence models. This thesis was therefore divided into two chapters and five questions. The first chapter is an attempt to answer the following questions: (1) Is there a relationship between occurrence probability and abundance? (2) Are models based on abundance better to predict the occurrence of species as compared to models that utilize only species occurrence? The second chapter addresses the questions: (3) Do exhaustive sampling procedures, with well-sampled presences and absences, lead to more accurate occurrence models? (4) Does detectability influence the relationship between species occurrence and environmental variables? (5) What is the impact of false zeros in the estimated area occupied by one given species? This study was conducted in the area surrounding the hydropower plant “Barra Grande”, in the Pelotas River, on the border of the Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina states. Located in the Pelotas River basin, the dam occupies an area of approximately 90 km². The surrounding area accounts for 4,600 km², where 388 plots with 10 x 50 m were randomly distributed and georeferenced. In each plot, individuals of nine selected tree species taller than 1.5 m were surveyed. In the first paper, we modeled the distribution and abundance of the species studied using generalized linear models (GLMs), utilizing 15 environmental variables. Occurrence models were proved to be more accurate than abundance models. The positive correlation between occurrence probability and observed abundance was also demonstrated, which opens the possibility to utilize occurrence probability as an indicator of species abundance. The second chapter reports the impact of failures in detection in species distribution models, using A. angustifolia as model species. We simulated the impact of false zeros in model accuracy, in the selection of response variables (environmental variables) and in estimates of the area occupied by A. angustifolia. The decrease in detectability caused changes in both model accuracy and in the environmental variables that explain the occurrence of A. angustifolia. The area occupied did not have a well-defined pattern, though it showed a trend towards elevation, in accordance with the decrease in detectability, thus raising the commission error in the model. The accuracy of models (AUC and correlation between occurrence probability and observed abundance) decreased with the decrease in detectability, while only one environmental variable was included in all models (soil pH). These techniques offer great potential in the collection of essential information in biodiversity conservation, monitoring and managements strategies in hydropower projects. However, robust inferences about species and ecosystems in question can only be drawn considering the need to evaluate the impact caused by defective species detection.

Notre thèse portant sur les « difficultés de mise en œuvre du droit de souveraineté permanente sur les ressources naturelles dans les territoires occupés et les territoires non autonomes » est née d’un constat initial selon lequel le droit de souveraineté permanente sur les ressources naturelles dans les territoires occupés et les territoires non autonomes n’est toujours pas respecté par plusieurs acteurs de la scène internationale, dont certains se disant très attachés aux normes du droit international. Deux hypothèses ont été avancées pour expliquer ce dilemme, à savoir soit le principe de souveraineté permanente sur les ressources naturelles n’a pas été encore affirmé comme une règle de droit international positif applicable aux territoires occupés et aux territoires non autonomes ; ou bien ce principe est d’ores et déjà enraciné en droit international mais il n’est pas encore effectif en raison du manque de mécanismes de suivi permettant sa mise en œuvre. Concernant la question de savoir si le principe de souveraineté permanente sur les ressources naturelles constitue une règle du droit international positif, notre examen a montré que l’enracinement juridique de ce principe a profondément bouleversé le cadre juridique régissant les activités d’exploration et d’exploitation des ressources naturelles menées dans les territoires occupés et les territoires non autonomes. L’examen de l’effectivité du droit de souveraineté permanente sur les ressources naturelles devait passer inévitablement par un état des lieux des activités d’exploration et d’exploitation des ressources naturelles dans un échantillon des territoires occupés et des territoires non autonomes. Cet état des lieux a renforcé davantage la présomption de la difficile effectivité du droit de souveraineté permanente sur les ressources naturelles. Les actions menées par les organisations internationales en faveur du suivi et de la mise en œuvre du droit de souveraineté permanente sur les ressources naturelles dans les territoires occupés et les territoires non autonomes ont montré de nombreuses limites en la matière. L’effectivité du droit de souveraineté permanente sur les ressources naturelles est également et manifestement remise en cause par une pénurie de mécanismes juridictionnels capables de remédier efficacement à l’exploitation illégale des ressources naturelles dans les territoires non autonomes et les territoires occupés. Par ailleurs, l’examen du rôle joué par certains ONG et fonds d’investissement dans le suivi et la mise en œuvre du droit de souveraineté permanente sur les ressources naturelles dans les territoires non autonomes et les territoires occupés, a montré que ces acteurs privés peuvent constituer des outils efficaces afin d’inciter les entreprises mises en cause à mettre fin à leurs activités illégales. Toutefois, ce rôle encourageant des acteurs privés est loin de remédier seul à la situation causée par la pénurie de mécanismes mis en place par les acteurs publics (Etats et organisations internationales). / Our thesis on "the difficulties in the implementation of the right of permanent sovereignty over natural resources in occupied and non-self-governing territories" was developed from the initial observation that the right of permanent sovereignty over natural resources in occupied and non-self-governing territories is still not respected by several actors on the international scene, some of whom claim to be very committed to the norms of international law. Two hypotheses have been put forward to explain this dilemma: either the principle of permanent sovereignty over natural resources has not yet been affirmed as a positive rule of international law applicable to occupied and non-self-governing territories; or this principle is already rooted in international law but is not yet effective due to the lack of monitoring mechanisms for its implementation. On the question of whether the principle of permanent sovereignty over natural resources is a rule of positive international law, our review has shown that the legal routing of this principle has profoundly changed the legal framework regulating the exploration and exploitation of natural resources in occupied and non-self-governing territories. The examination of the effectiveness of the right of permanent sovereignty over natural resources would inevitably require an inventory of natural resource exploration and exploitation activities in a sample of occupied and non-self-governing territories. This inventory has further reinforced the presumption of the difficult effectiveness of the right of permanent sovereignty over natural resources. The efforts of international organizations to monitor and implement the right of permanent sovereignty over natural resources in the occupied and non-self-governing territories have shown many limitations in this regard. The effectiveness of the right of permanent sovereignty over natural resources is also clearly undermined by a lack of jurisdictional mechanisms capable of effectively remedying the illegal exploitation of natural resources in the non-self-governing and occupied territories. Furthermore, an examination of the role of certain NGOs and investment funds in monitoring and implementing the right of permanent sovereignty over natural resources in the non-self-governing and occupied territories has shown that these private actors can be effective tools in encouraging the implicated companies to put an end to their illegal activities. However, this encouraging role of private actors is far from remedying by itself the situation caused by the lack of mechanisms put in place by public actors (States and international organizations).

Diploma thesis elaborates the issues of the development projects. One of the sections of this thesis brings out necessary description and break down of the development activities and risks that are part of the development projects. Substantial part of the thesis aims on the evaluation of the projected profits (revenues) from the sales of the residential apartment units. Section studies all factors that have impact on the cost, e.g. locality, architectural disposition and more. Practical section of the thesis explains and comments on evaluation of the development project "residential house" Pilot 3 and projection of the revenues of this project.

This thesis intends to prove that Stephen V. Ash’s model of occupation from his work, When the Yankees Came: Conflict and Chaos in the Occupied South, is applicable to St. Augustine’s occupation experience in the Civil War. Three overarching themes in Ash’s work are consistent with Civil War St. Augustine. First, that Union policy of conciliation towards southern civilians was abandoned after the first few months of occupation due to both nonviolent and violent resistance from those civilians. Second, that Ash’s “zones of occupation” of the occupied South, being garrisoned towns, no-man’s-land, and the Confederate frontier apply to St. Augustine and the surrounding countryside. Finally, Ash’s assertions that the southern community was changed by the war and Union occupation, is reflected in the massive demographic shifts that rocked St. Augustine from 1862 to 1865. This thesis will show that all three of Ash’s themes apply to St. Augustine’s Civil War occupation experience and confirms the author’s generalizations about life in the occupied South.

German industrialization in the nineteenth century had brought forward a variety of conflicting ideas when it came to the agrarian community. One of them was the agrarian romantic movement led by Adam Műller, who feared the loss of the traditional German peasant. Műller influenced Reichdeutsche Richard Walther Darré, who argued that large cities were the downfall of the German people and that only a healthy peasant stock would be able to ‘save' Germany. Under Darré's definition, “Geopolitik” was the defense of the land, the defense with Pflug und Schwert (plow and sword) by Wehrbauern, an ‘Űberbauer-fusion' of soldier and peasant. In order to accomplish these goals, new settlements had to be established while moving from west to east. The specific focus of this study is on the original Hegewald resettlement ideas of Richard Walther Darré and how his philosophy was taken over by Himmler and fit into his personal needs and creed after 1941. It will shed some light on the interaction of Darré and Himmler and the notorious internal fights and power struggles between the various governmental agencies involved. The Ministry for Food and Agriculture under the leadership of Darré was systematically pushed into the background and all previous, often publicly announced re-settlement policies were altered; Darré was pushed aside once the eastern living space was actually occupied.

Cette recherche porte sur la migration de citoyens de pays du Nord dans les Territoires Palestiniens Occupés (TPO). Elle vise à analyser les trajectoires sociales et migratoires de ces individus, désignés localement « internationaux », ainsi qu'à montrer comment ils sont des acteurs dans la situation locale au travers de leurs mobilités, leurs emplois et leurs engagements. Cette problématique de recherche s'inscrit au croisement de deux phénomènes : d'une part, la diversification et l'accroissement des migrations internationales, et plus spécifiquement celles allant du Nord vers le Sud, et, d'autre part, l'émergence de conditions matérielles et professionnelles favorables à l'arrivée de citoyens étrangers dans un pays en conflit, sous l'effet de l'afflux massif de l'aide internationale depuis les années 1990. L'étude des profils sociaux des « internationaux » résidant dans les TPO révèle une forte homogénéité sociale et culturelle : on observe ainsi une migration de jeunes hautement diplômés, issus de familles de classes moyennes supérieures d'Europe ou d'Amérique du Nord, et particulièrement dotés en capitaux culturels. Toutefois, l'analyse des trajectoires souligne une certaine diversité des parcours migratoires et des liens entretenus à la Palestine. La seconde partie de cette thèse s'intéresse à la place politique et sociale des « internationaux » dans l'espace israélo-palestinien. La question des mobilités est cruciale pour saisir la position inédite de cette population migrante. Sa présence dans les TPO fait l'objet d'un contrôle important et croissant de la part des autorités israéliennes qui cherchent à la limiter et à la surveiller. Dans le même temps, à l'intérieur de l'espace israélo-palestinien, les « internationaux » bénéficient de droits à la mobilité dont sont privés les Palestiniens. L'étude des privilèges et des tensions qui en ressortent permet d'interroger les positionnements et le rôle de ces étrangers. Enfin, deux autres thématiques sont explorées : leur participation au système de l'aide internationale et leur engagements politiques vis-à-vis de la cause palestinienne. Tour à tour, pris dans les dynamiques sociopolitiques locales et partie prenante de ces mêmes dynamiques, les citoyens étrangers résidant dans les TPO représentent pour la recherche une entrée heuristique pour penser les circulations Nord-Sud comme la situation palestinienne actuelle. / This PhD research studies the current migration of nationals from northern countries to the occupied Palestinian territories (oPt). It aims to analyze the social and migratory trajectories of those called "internationals" and attempts to highlight how, through their mobility practices, work and political engagements, they can be considered a new group of actors in the oPt. This core question falls within two global and regional phenomena: first, the increase and diversification of international migration, especially North to South flows, and secondly, the vast rate of international assistance to the oPt since the 1990s, which has resulted in the emergence of tangible conditions conducive to the migration of foreign citizens to a conflict zone. By examining their social features, a strong social and cultural homogeneity of an apparently divers group of individuals becomes apparent; it is a migration of relatively young, affluent people from the upper middle classes of Europe or North America, endowed with cultural and international capital. However, the study of the trajectories that led them to oPt reveals a diversity of migratory paths and links to Palestine. The second part of my PhD thesis tackles the social and political role and position of "internationals". Mobility rights and practices are a relevant and challenging angle to discuss the atypical position of such migrants. Indeed, Israeli authorities seek to monitor, control and limit foreign presence in the oPt (through a variety of measures), transforming privileged people into suspected and unwanted individuals. Yet inside the Israeli-Palestinian space, they are granted mobility privileges which allow them to circulate freely while Palestinians are rendered immobile in their homeland. The study of these privileges and the resulting tension calls into question internationals' position in Palestinian society. Finally, internationals' participation in the aid regime and the political actions taken by some migrants on the Palestinian cause are addressed. Through the political and socio-economic implications of their presence, western citizens living in the oPt are an heuristic point of entry to contribute to the fields of North-South migration studies and Palestinian studies.

The treatment of owner-occupied housing (OOH) is probably the most important unresolved issue in inflation measurement. How -- and whether -- it is included in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) affects inflation expectations, the measured level of real interest rates, and the behavior of governments, central banks and market participants. We show that none of the existing treatments of OOH are fit for purpose. Hence we propose a new simplified user cost method with better properties. Using a micro-level dataset, we then compare the empirical behavior of eight different treatments of OOH. Our preferred user cost approach pushes up the CPI during housing booms (by 2 percentage points or more). Our findings relate to the following important debates in macroeconomics: the behavior of the Phillips curve in the US during the global financial crisis, and the response of monetary policy to housing booms, secular stagnation, and globalization. / Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series

La question palestinienne est depuis un siècle sans solution. Les Palestiniens qui, tout comme les peuples arabes de la région, espéraient obtenir leur indépendance à l'issue de la 1ère Guerre mondiale se sont vus placés sous Mandat britannique octroyé par la Société des Nations. Depuis la Palestine est la terre d'un affrontement de deux nationalismes ; arabe palestinien d'un côté et juif sioniste de l'autre. L'intervention de l'ONU en vue de résoudre la question par le partage de la Palestine (un Etat arabe et un Etat juif) n'a pas apporté la solution. Au contraire, cela a aggravé la situation. Plusieurs guerres ont éclaté créant des situations humaines terribles notamment en ce qui concerne les réfugiés palestiniens et l'occupation des territoires palestiniens en 1967. De plus, le conflit israélo-arabe a pris un caractère durable. Depuis 1967 le Droit International dans son organisation actuelle se trouve tantôt inappliqué tantôt bloqué. En effet, Bien que les droits nationaux du peuple palestinien à l'autodétermination et à l'indépendance étatique aient été reconnus et à mainte reprise rappelés fussent l'occupation israélienne perdure. L'échec du Droit International dans le règlement de la question a laissé place à des négociations politiques, entre Israël et les Palestiniens représentés par l'OLP, et qui se sont soldées par la mise en place d'un régime transitoire vers la formation d'un Etat palestinien souverain. La dynamique d'Oslo a consolidé le droit du peuple palestinien à l'autodétermination, notamment par la territorialisation de la direction palestinienne dans les Territoires Occupés et l'instauration des structures institutionnelles autonomes, pouvant servir de base à la construction étatique. Toutefois, forcé de constater une inertie dans les négociations, qui durent depuis dix-huit ans, et un non respect du calendrier établi par les Accords. Aussi, plusieurs éléments mettent en doute la possibilité d'un Etat souverain et indépendant sur les frontières de 1967 : le durcissement de la position israélienne sur la question territoriale ; la volonté manifeste d'Israël de conserver le contrôle sur une partie de la Cisjordanie ; le refus d'évacuer les territoires selon le calendrier ; la multiplication des faits accomplis ; la poursuite de la colonisation et la construction du mur de séparation dans les Territoires Occupés. / For a century, the Palestinian issue has been unresolved. Following the First World War, Palestinians, like other Arab people in the region, hoped to gain their independence but were placed under British mandate granted by the League of Nations. Since then, Palestine has been a place where two nationalisms have clashed: Palestinian Arab nationalism on the one side and Jewish Zionism on the other. The UN intervention to resolve the issue by a partition of Palestine (one Arab state and one Jewish state) failed to provide a solution. On the contrary, it aggravated the situation. Several wars erupted which generated terrible human situations, regarding in particular the Palestinians refugees or the occupation of the Palestinian territories in 1967. Furthermore, the Arab-Israeli conflict became a long standing one. Since 1967, International Law, in its current form, is sometimes unimplemented sometimes blocked. Despite the rights of the Palestinian people to self-determination and independent statehood having been recognized and repeatedly reaffirmed, the Israeli occupation endures. International law's failure in resolving the issue has given way to political negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians represented by the PLO. Such negotiations led to the establishment of a transitory system towards the creation of a sovereign Palestinian state. The dynamics of Oslo has strengthened the right of the Palestinian people to self-determination, including by the territorialisation of the Palestinian authority in the occupied territories and the establishment of autonomous institutional structures which can form the basis for state building. However, forced to conclude to a lack of progress in the negotiations, under way for the past eighteen years, as well as to a failure to comply with the timetable established by the Agreements. Therefore, several factors cast doubt on the possibility of a sovereign and independent state to be established on the 1967 borders: the hardening of the Israeli stand on the territorial issue, Israel's clear desire to retain control over part of the West Bank; its refusal to evacuate the territories according to schedule; its policy of fait accompli, its continuation of settlement activities and the construction of the separation wall within the Occupied Territories.