This dissertation examines the development of coarse-grained models of atomistic systems for the purpose of predicting target quantities of interest in the presence of uncertainties. It addresses fundamental questions in computational science and engineering concerning model selection, calibration, and validation processes that are used to construct predictive reduced order models through a unified Bayesian framework. This framework, enhanced with the concepts of information theory, sensitivity analysis, and Occam's Razor, provides a systematic means of constructing coarse-grained models suitable for use in a prediction scenario. The novel application of a general framework of statistical calibration and validation to molecular systems is presented. Atomistic models, which themselves contain uncertainties, are treated as the ground truth and provide data for the Bayesian updating of model parameters. The open problem of the selection of appropriate coarse-grained models is addressed through the powerful notion of Bayesian model plausibility. A new, adaptive algorithm for model validation is presented. The Occam-Plausibility ALgorithm (OPAL), so named for its adherence to Occam's Razor and the use of Bayesian model plausibilities, identifies, among a large set of models, the simplest model that passes the Bayesian validation tests, and may therefore be used to predict chosen quantities of interest. By discarding or ignoring unnecessarily complex models, this algorithm contains the potential to reduce computational expense with the systematic process of considering subsets of models, as well as the implementation of the prediction scenario with the simplest valid model. An application to the construction of a coarse-grained system of polyethylene is given to demonstrate the implementation of molecular modeling techniques; the process of Bayesian selection, calibration, and validation of reduced-order models; and OPAL. The potential of the Bayesian framework for the process of coarse graining and of OPAL as a means of determining a computationally conservative valid model is illustrated on the polyethylene example. / text

In the current literature review I examine false memory research, including variables that affect memory accuracy, instrumentation, and analyses used to assess false memory construction, as well as possible frameworks accounting for the development of false memories. Do errors in memory occur during encoding of an event or during retrieval of a memory? I discuss two models of false memories, both born from the source-monitoring framework, to highlight the important cognitive processes leading to crucial errors in memory recall. In the study that follows I investigate whether repeated imaginings of an implausible autobiographical event will lead to the creation of false memories. Plausibility, in the form of prevalence ratings, and visual imagery are manipulated for six suggested events that could have occurred during childhood. A model proposed by Pezdek and colleagues supports the roles of plausibility and imagination in false memory construction (Pezdek, Finger & Hodge, 1997; Pezdek, Blandon-Gitlin & Gabbay, 2006). However, their model is based on research conducted using a Life Events Inventory, a survey that assesses a belief rather than a memory construct. In the present study, I use the Autobiographical Belief and Memory Questionnaire, a survey instrument that distinctly measures plausibility, belief and memory (Scoboria, Mazzoni, Kirsch & Relyea, 2004). Confirmatory factor analysis is employed for instrument validation, followed by a 2 (plausibility: high or low) x 3 (number of imaginings: 0, 1, 5) x 2 (time: pre or post) within subjects ANOVA to test the Pezdek model of false memory construction. Both belief and memory ratings increase significantly when imagination is employed, regardless of event plausibility. However, memory ratings increase as the number of imaginings increase. Belief ratings only increase with one imagining. Present results provide insight into the role of visual imagery on memory accuracy, and inform researchers of appropriate survey instruments and statistical analyses to detect false memories. False memory research is valuable for informing therapeutic techniques, evaluating the reliability of eyewitness testimony, and advising interrogation procedures used by law enforcement and legal officials.

Este trabalho apresenta a relação de interdependência entre a teodicéia da Igreja Universal do Reino de Deus, sua prática discursiva, suas estratégias comunicacionais, seus paradoxos e coerêcias e a mudança das representações e padrões comportamentais de seus crentes e/ou de seus adeptos. Assim temos a temática da religião e representação do mundo, objetivando demonstrar a complexidade do fenômeno religioso em sua dupla função: social e psicológica. Depois temos, as características da IURD, que a diferenciam no contexto do neopentecostalismo, seus traços estruturais marcantes relacionados com os traços estruturais da sociedade brasileira. Faz-se uma análise da obra de Edir Macedo O Perfil do Homem de Deus, demonstrando os paradoxos presentes entre a linguagem textual e oral, das reuniões da referida Igreja. Segue-se com a análise dos depoimentos de crentes e/ou de adeptos, verificando o processo de internalização, por parte dos mesmos das estratégias comunicacionais adotadas pela Universal, como força motriz da mudança das representações e padrões comportamentais, pelo encontro de uma estrutura de plausibilidade do mundo, ao mesmo tempo em que se objetiva tentar esclarecer a prática discursiva da Igreja, diretamente relacionada com mentes individuais e grupais de caráter regressivo, isto é, imediatistas, intolerantes às frustrações, ambivalentes, ou seja, não conseguindo traduzir adequadamente a realidade, para os quais o discurso do aqui e agora se adequa. Finalmente, aborda-se a temática: secularização, ambivalência e reencantamento do mundo, utilizando-se como matriz teórica as abordagens e concepções de Peter Berger e Zygmunt Bauman, demonstrando ser o fenômeno Universal do Reino de Deus e seu vínculo com seus crentes e/ou seus adeptos reflexo do processo de secularização que se encontra acompanhado do reencantamento do mundo. É uma tentativa de dar um novo enfoque ao assunto Universal do Reino de Deus, sem prender-se por um só caminho, mas mostrar-se uma abordagem diferente das opções existentes no âmbito da Sociologia das Religiões. / This work presents the interdependence relationship among the teodicéia of the Universal Church of Kingdon of God, your discursive practice, your comunicationals strategies, your paradoxes and coherences and the change of the representations and comportamentals patterns of your believers and/or of your followers. Thus we have the thematic of the religion and representation of the world, aiming at to demonstrate the complexity of the religions phenomenon in your double function: social and psychological. Then it in the context of the neopentecostalism, your outstanding structural lines related with the strtuctural lines of the Brazilian society. Analysis of Edir Macedo “Work the Man’s of God Profile”, demonstrat the present paradoxes among the textual and oral language, of the meetings of the referred Church. It is followed by the analysis of the Universal, as driving force of the change of the representations and comportamentals patterns, for the encounter of a struture of plausibility of the word, at the same time in which it aims to try clearing the discursive practice of the church, diretly related with individual minds and you group of regressive charater, that is, imediatistas, intolerant to the frustrations, ambivalent, in other words, not getting to translate the reality appropriately, for the ones which the speech of the “here and now” is adapted. Finally, the thematic is approached secularizacion, ambivalence aond reenchantement of the world, bring used as the practical head office the approaches and conceptions of Peter Berger and Zygmunt Bauman, demonstrating to be the Universal phenomenon of Kingdon of God and your entail with your believers and your followers the reflex of the secularizacion process that one find accompanied of the reenchantment of the world. It is on attempt of giving a new four of the Universal of Kingdon of God, without arresting for only one road, but to show and approach different from the existent options in the scope of the Sociology of the Religions.

Este trabalho apresenta a relação de interdependência entre a teodicéia da Igreja Universal do Reino de Deus, sua prática discursiva, suas estratégias comunicacionais, seus paradoxos e coerêcias e a mudança das representações e padrões comportamentais de seus crentes e/ou de seus adeptos. Assim temos a temática da religião e representação do mundo, objetivando demonstrar a complexidade do fenômeno religioso em sua dupla função: social e psicológica. Depois temos, as características da IURD, que a diferenciam no contexto do neopentecostalismo, seus traços estruturais marcantes relacionados com os traços estruturais da sociedade brasileira. Faz-se uma análise da obra de Edir Macedo O Perfil do Homem de Deus, demonstrando os paradoxos presentes entre a linguagem textual e oral, das reuniões da referida Igreja. Segue-se com a análise dos depoimentos de crentes e/ou de adeptos, verificando o processo de internalização, por parte dos mesmos das estratégias comunicacionais adotadas pela Universal, como força motriz da mudança das representações e padrões comportamentais, pelo encontro de uma estrutura de plausibilidade do mundo, ao mesmo tempo em que se objetiva tentar esclarecer a prática discursiva da Igreja, diretamente relacionada com mentes individuais e grupais de caráter regressivo, isto é, imediatistas, intolerantes às frustrações, ambivalentes, ou seja, não conseguindo traduzir adequadamente a realidade, para os quais o discurso do aqui e agora se adequa. Finalmente, aborda-se a temática: secularização, ambivalência e reencantamento do mundo, utilizando-se como matriz teórica as abordagens e concepções de Peter Berger e Zygmunt Bauman, demonstrando ser o fenômeno Universal do Reino de Deus e seu vínculo com seus crentes e/ou seus adeptos reflexo do processo de secularização que se encontra acompanhado do reencantamento do mundo. É uma tentativa de dar um novo enfoque ao assunto Universal do Reino de Deus, sem prender-se por um só caminho, mas mostrar-se uma abordagem diferente das opções existentes no âmbito da Sociologia das Religiões. / This work presents the interdependence relationship among the teodicéia of the Universal Church of Kingdon of God, your discursive practice, your comunicationals strategies, your paradoxes and coherences and the change of the representations and comportamentals patterns of your believers and/or of your followers. Thus we have the thematic of the religion and representation of the world, aiming at to demonstrate the complexity of the religions phenomenon in your double function: social and psychological. Then it in the context of the neopentecostalism, your outstanding structural lines related with the strtuctural lines of the Brazilian society. Analysis of Edir Macedo “Work the Man’s of God Profile”, demonstrat the present paradoxes among the textual and oral language, of the meetings of the referred Church. It is followed by the analysis of the Universal, as driving force of the change of the representations and comportamentals patterns, for the encounter of a struture of plausibility of the word, at the same time in which it aims to try clearing the discursive practice of the church, diretly related with individual minds and you group of regressive charater, that is, imediatistas, intolerant to the frustrations, ambivalent, in other words, not getting to translate the reality appropriately, for the ones which the speech of the “here and now” is adapted. Finally, the thematic is approached secularizacion, ambivalence aond reenchantement of the world, bring used as the practical head office the approaches and conceptions of Peter Berger and Zygmunt Bauman, demonstrating to be the Universal phenomenon of Kingdon of God and your entail with your believers and your followers the reflex of the secularizacion process that one find accompanied of the reenchantment of the world. It is on attempt of giving a new four of the Universal of Kingdon of God, without arresting for only one road, but to show and approach different from the existent options in the scope of the Sociology of the Religions.

Este trabalho apresenta a relação de interdependência entre a teodicéia da Igreja Universal do Reino de Deus, sua prática discursiva, suas estratégias comunicacionais, seus paradoxos e coerêcias e a mudança das representações e padrões comportamentais de seus crentes e/ou de seus adeptos. Assim temos a temática da religião e representação do mundo, objetivando demonstrar a complexidade do fenômeno religioso em sua dupla função: social e psicológica. Depois temos, as características da IURD, que a diferenciam no contexto do neopentecostalismo, seus traços estruturais marcantes relacionados com os traços estruturais da sociedade brasileira. Faz-se uma análise da obra de Edir Macedo O Perfil do Homem de Deus, demonstrando os paradoxos presentes entre a linguagem textual e oral, das reuniões da referida Igreja. Segue-se com a análise dos depoimentos de crentes e/ou de adeptos, verificando o processo de internalização, por parte dos mesmos das estratégias comunicacionais adotadas pela Universal, como força motriz da mudança das representações e padrões comportamentais, pelo encontro de uma estrutura de plausibilidade do mundo, ao mesmo tempo em que se objetiva tentar esclarecer a prática discursiva da Igreja, diretamente relacionada com mentes individuais e grupais de caráter regressivo, isto é, imediatistas, intolerantes às frustrações, ambivalentes, ou seja, não conseguindo traduzir adequadamente a realidade, para os quais o discurso do aqui e agora se adequa. Finalmente, aborda-se a temática: secularização, ambivalência e reencantamento do mundo, utilizando-se como matriz teórica as abordagens e concepções de Peter Berger e Zygmunt Bauman, demonstrando ser o fenômeno Universal do Reino de Deus e seu vínculo com seus crentes e/ou seus adeptos reflexo do processo de secularização que se encontra acompanhado do reencantamento do mundo. É uma tentativa de dar um novo enfoque ao assunto Universal do Reino de Deus, sem prender-se por um só caminho, mas mostrar-se uma abordagem diferente das opções existentes no âmbito da Sociologia das Religiões. / This work presents the interdependence relationship among the teodicéia of the Universal Church of Kingdon of God, your discursive practice, your comunicationals strategies, your paradoxes and coherences and the change of the representations and comportamentals patterns of your believers and/or of your followers. Thus we have the thematic of the religion and representation of the world, aiming at to demonstrate the complexity of the religions phenomenon in your double function: social and psychological. Then it in the context of the neopentecostalism, your outstanding structural lines related with the strtuctural lines of the Brazilian society. Analysis of Edir Macedo “Work the Man’s of God Profile”, demonstrat the present paradoxes among the textual and oral language, of the meetings of the referred Church. It is followed by the analysis of the Universal, as driving force of the change of the representations and comportamentals patterns, for the encounter of a struture of plausibility of the word, at the same time in which it aims to try clearing the discursive practice of the church, diretly related with individual minds and you group of regressive charater, that is, imediatistas, intolerant to the frustrations, ambivalent, in other words, not getting to translate the reality appropriately, for the ones which the speech of the “here and now” is adapted. Finally, the thematic is approached secularizacion, ambivalence aond reenchantement of the world, bring used as the practical head office the approaches and conceptions of Peter Berger and Zygmunt Bauman, demonstrating to be the Universal phenomenon of Kingdon of God and your entail with your believers and your followers the reflex of the secularizacion process that one find accompanied of the reenchantment of the world. It is on attempt of giving a new four of the Universal of Kingdon of God, without arresting for only one road, but to show and approach different from the existent options in the scope of the Sociology of the Religions.

Den här studien har för avsikt att ta reda på hur olika typer av problemlösningsuppgifter påverkar elevernas förmåga att rimlighetsbedöma sina lösningar och svar. Studien syftar också till att ta reda på hur elever relaterar till verkligheten när de löser olika typer av problemlösningsuppgifter. För att uppnå syftet med studien genomfördes en undersökning i flera elevgrupper i årskurs två (ålder 8 år). Resultatet på undersökningen visar att olika typer av problemlösningsuppgifter påverkar hur eleverna resonerar kring rimlighet. Resultatet från undersökningen visar också att olika typer av uppgifter påverkar hur mycket eleverna reflekterar över verkligheten. Det har även framkommit under studiens gång att det är väldigt viktigt att kunna uppfatta det muntliga resonemanget som eleverna för att kunna bedöma hur eleverna kommer fram till lösningar och svar. Mycket av förmågan att bedöma rimlighet framkommer endast genom muntliga resonemanget och är därför väldigt svårt att se i skrivna svar. / This study aims to find out how different types of problem solving tasks affect students’ ability to plausible evaluate their solutions and answers. The study also intends to find out how students relate to reality when solving different types of problem solving tasks. In order to achieve the purpose of the study, a survey was conducted in several classes with grade two students (age 8). The results of the survey shows that the type of problem solving tasks can partially affect the students’ ability to assess plausibility. The results of the survey also shows that different types of problem solving tasks, affect how much the students reflect to reality. During the study it also became clear that the oral reasoning is crucial to perceive in order to be able to assess how students come to solutions and answers. Much of the ability to assess plausibility emerges through oral reasoning and is therefore very difficult to detect in written answers.

The Moral Institute of Higher Fiction is an independent institute acting on urban issues in the city of Stockholm through critical spatial experiments that operate on the threshold between fact and fiction, challenging our assumptions about architectural realities. The work of the institute dates back through history and also contributes the critical projections of possible futures. It traverses, and even collapses relations between temporal and spatial continuity, in order to comment on contemporary Swedish society. We engage in our given commissions by investigating their charge of affect and ideas; how these contain and transmit the thoughts and ideas that preoccupy contemporary society, shifting our relations to ecologies, challenging skepticism and stirring belief and action - all through the telling of stories. This thesis diploma design research explores the invented construction of the MIHF in order to investigate the status of architectural reality, specifically to assert that architecture is more than merely built form and emerges instead on the threshold between fact and fiction. It follows that the design research uses the notion of the plausible, or how far a suspension of disbelief can be maintained in exploring the precarious zone where fact and fiction intersect. The research also poses questions about the temporal and spatial alterations of both architecture and society - in the search for a future field of architectural practice that consciously intervenes in a politics of space and challenges what architecture is most often assumed to be. A perpetual reconstruction of the Moral Institute of Higher Fiction is undertaken to address societal ills, including xenophobia, fear and loneliness, set against the backdrop of the city of Stockholm. All of the commissions that are undertaken by the institute actively take part in its current embodiment which is sited on the northern shore of Royal Djurgården. Manifesting as architecture, this is where the stories of the Moral Institute of Higher Fiction unfold. / Det Moraliska Institutet för Högre Fiction är ett oberoende institut som arbetar med urbana frågor i Stockholm genom kritiska spatiala experiment som opererar på tröskeln mellan fakta och fiktion och utmanar vår förförståelse av arkitektoniska verkligheter. Institutets arbete sträcker sig bakåt i tiden men bidrar också till kritiska projektioner ov möjliga framtider. Det korsar, och till och med kollapsar relationer mellan tid och rum för att kunna kommentera det nutida svenska samhället. Vi engagerar oss i våra uppdrag genom att undersöka deras laddning av affekt och idéer, hur dessa innehas och överförs till och av tankar och idéer som återfinns i vårt nutida samhälle, som skiftar relationer till ekologier, utmanar skepticism och blandar tro med aktion - allt genom att berätta berättelser. Det här examensarbetet utforskar den uppfunna konstruktionen av MIHF för att undersöka den arkitektoniska verklighetens status, särskilt för att försäkra att arkitekturen är mer än endast byggd form och att den istället uppkommer på tröskeln mellan fakta och fiktion. Undersökningen använder sig utav begreppet ‘sannolikt’, eller hur långt en uttänjning av en ‘misstro’ kan dras och upprätthållas för att utforska den prekära zonen där fakta och fiktion möts. Undersökningen ställer också frågor om tidsmässiga och rumsliga förändringar inom både arkitekturen och samhället, i ett sökande efter ett framtida fält av arkitekturpraktik som medvetet deltar i det politiska rummet och utmanar vad arkitekturen allra oftast anses vara. En ständigt pågående rekonstruktion av det Moraliska Institutet för Högre Fiktion företas för att adressera missförhållanden i samhället, förnärvarande: främlingsfientlighet, rädsla och ensamhet, utspelade med Stockholm som fond. Alla institutets uppdrag är aktivt bidragande till dess nuvarande (temporära) förkroppsligande, placerat på Kungliga Djurgårdens norra strand. Manifesterade som arkitektur, är det här som det Moraliska Institutet för Högre Fiktions berättelser avslöjas.

This paper investigates the theoretical meaning of plausibility in mathematics from a teacher’s perspective. The study applies a phenomenographic research approach and uses empirical content analysis. The theory used comes from the writings on plausibility assessment from McIntosh (2008). Furthermore, Karlsson & Kilborn’s (2015) and Kilpatrick, Swafford & Findell’s (2001) writings on mathematical modeling has been applied. The data gathered in this study comes from interviewing 6 teachers. The results show that teachers in the study do not work explicitly but rather work implicitly with assessment in plausibility as a complement to their general teaching of mathematics. The results further show that the teachers have the mathematical knowledge and competence to educate in plausibility but that they lack the theoretical- and didactic knowledge to apply it in their teaching. There is also very little research, if any, in this area which is a concern for the development of teaching plausibility assessment.

Students will very often write incomplete explanations when asked to do so. This may be due to various reasons, including but not limited to a lack of understanding of the content or a lack of motivation. Developing an understanding of how students form and orally express scientific explanations (i.e., participating in scientific discourse) and comparing that to written explanations will give insight into how students communicate the construction of their scientific explanations. This dissertation used sociocultural theory as the framework to study investigate the transcribed conversations of student work groups as they complete Model-Evidence Link (MEL) diagram activities and then write evaluative explanations of the evidence to model relationships (Lombardi, Bailey et al., 2018).Transcripts coded with the sociocultural discourse analysis (SDA) framework and the Lombardi, Brandt et al. (2016) evaluation rubric provided the primary data for this project, as well as data previously collected as part of the MEL Project. Structural equation modeling investigated the impact of the Quality of Conversation (QoC) construct on final MEL Project structural equation model (tSEM). Multivariate analysis was used to determine the trends of change over time for the evaluation scores. Finally, an adapted text analysis framework was used to make comparisons between transcripts and the written explanation tasks. Analysis found that the pathway from QoC to post-plausibility through evaluation in the experimental SEM was significant with a good model fitness (Tenenhaus GoF= 0.349, medium > 0.25). Analysis of the evaluation scores of the students showed no particular growth trends and qualitative analysis supported previous findings that the students use descriptive levels of evaluation when talking about and writing about the relationships between explanatory models and lines of evidence. This project found that the use of the MEL diagram may enhance student levels of evaluation when investigating the links between lines of evidence and explanatory models. However, a qualitative analysis of the student transcripts finds that students tend to use the basest level of evaluation (i.e., descriptive) in their discourse. This is consistent with the level of evaluation found in the written explanation tasks. This led me to suggest to teachers that they continue to support their students’ group conversations with discourse scaffolds. / Teaching & Learning

The echocardiographic assessment of valvular heart diseases is the basic analysis of valvular defects next to clinical investigation and stethoscopy. Severity of mitral regurgitation (MR) is usually estimated by an integrated approach using semi quantitative parameters and is still one of the biggest challenges of echocardiography. Quantitative echocardiographic analysis of MR severity often fails to describe comprehensible hemodynamic conditions. However, comprehensive echocardiography based on standardized image acquisition and proper image quality is required to properly assess hemodynamic parameter comparable to cardiac magnetic resonance tomography. This review focuses on the uncertainty of MR severity assessed by echocardiography in recent trials of interventional MR treatment. In addition, the necessity to provide plausible echocardiographic data for individual decision making is highlighted. In conclusion, plausible functional diagnostics by rational echocardiography is a prerequisite in patients with valvular heart diseases.