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This dissertation is about major natural disasters, and how they contribute to legitimacy crises of governments. Three major factors explain the emergence of a legitimacy crisis in a post-disaster context: the frequency of disaster occurrence, the quality of the government response to disasters, and the type of regime within which the government operates. Employing a large-N statistical analysis of data on major natural disasters and anti-government domestic political activities for the years between 1990 and 2010, I show that higher counts of disasters, as a rule, increase the risks of anti-government demonstrations, revolutions, riots, guerrilla warfare, and intrastate conflict. The disaster-political opposition relationship is conditional upon the characteristics of political regimes. No regime is entirely free from the political dangers of disasters. Consolidated autocracies and well established democracies are less likely than mixed regimes to observe political crises in the context of a higher frequency of natural disasters. To evaluate the quality of government response and how it mediates the disaster-legitimacy relationship, I conduct a qualitative analysis of news reports on four major disaster events in South Asia - cyclone Sidr of 2007 and cyclone Aila of 2009 in Bangladesh and cyclone Aila and the Kashmir earthquake of 2005 in India. The case studies reveal that poor preparedness and inadequate immediate and long-term response of a government invite public criticism of the incumbent, antigovernment protest movements, and anti-incumbent voting in elections. When opposition parties translate this public frustration into broader political mobilization, the moral claim of the incumbent to remain in power diminishes substantially, sometimes causing a legitimacy crisis. As opposed to common expectations, democracy may not provide the best political environment for effective disaster response. The quality of government response is influenced rather by a regime's security concerns, the level of administrative efficacy and corruption, the military's role in the disaster response process, socio-economic conditions of the affected people, and leadership competition over the disaster management process. This study has broader implications for understanding the kinds of political strains that disasters create in a society and how governments function in Bangladesh and India. Much of these governments' energy is devoted to managing disasters, which diminishes their capacity to govern. Political elites in Bangladesh and India use disaster events as opportunities to strengthen clientelism and exclude political opposition in the affected areas

Social media had an impactful role in the 2011 Egyptian Revolution. Facebook as a public sphere space was used as a powerful tool to enhance communicative action among Egyptians, dissidents, and global observers. Drawing on the philosophical and theoretical notions of individuality and the responsibilities of the state of John Locke (1689; 1690), Jean Jacques Rousseau (1762); the public sphere and communicative action of Jürgen Habermas (1981; 1989); and Manuel Castells network society and new public sphere (2004; 2006; 2008), this thesis empirically investigates the role of social media, specifically Facebook, during the 2011 Egyptian Revolution. Theories and concepts including the strength of weak ties, social movement theory, and Internet and organizational theory, a discussion of recent writings from both sides of the spectrum—those believing social media to hold power and those with the opposite view—inform the theoretical foundation of this thesis. The primary purpose of this thesis is to better understand what power lies in Facebook as used during the Egyptian Revolution. Using a qualitative approach, a methodological frame is employed to examine both the form and content of Facebook posts. This study concludes three major findings regarding the social power of Facebook during the 2011 Egyptian Revolution: the power of attention and momentum, the power of cooperation, and the creation of a repository of information and communication.

Research Doctorate - Doctor of Philosophy (PhD) / This study considers the situation of a group of East Timorese exiles living in Melbourne, Australia, who left East Timor or were born in exile from the time of the 1975 civil war up to the end of the Indonesian occupation of the territory in 1999. During the Indonesian occupation of East Timor, diasporic groups played a central role in the campaign for self-determination. Throughout the occupation, East Timorese in Australia maintained a strong sense of long-distance nationalism, which drove, directly or indirectly, communal cultural and social activities. The fight to free East Timor was at the core of the exiles’ collective imagination, defining them as a largely homeland focused community. However, in the aftermath of independence, many have struggled to find their place and role in relation to the independent nation. Personal experiences upon return, perceptions of political, cultural, economic and social development (or lack thereof), and political unrest and communal violence have led to renewed questioning of identity and belonging. The thesis explores this new questioning of identity and belonging and, through ethnographic field research with East Timorese living in Melbourne, it explores how the exiles experience and respond to the social and political changes in their country of origin. The research for the thesis was conducted during a period of conflict and national upheaval in East Timor, and the dissertation pays particular attention to how violence and unrest at home manifest in the exiles’ lives and affect their experience of self, community and nation. The thesis explores how past socialisation and practice within social fields that are characterised by an emphasis on communalism, morality and reciprocity form part of present agency. It considers how potential contradictions between past imaginaries and lived realities can lead to intensely felt emotions, which may further advance the process of negotiation and transformation of identity and boundaries of belonging. Through an analysis of linked conceptualisations of self, emotions and national narratives, the thesis seeks to shed light on the exiles’ engagement with and relationship to independent East Timor. It aims to inform contemporary understandings of the processes of change that occur within diasporic communities at times of radical political change in the exiles’ home countries.

Social media had an impactful role in the 2011 Egyptian Revolution. Facebook as a public sphere space was used as a powerful tool to enhance communicative action among Egyptians, dissidents, and global observers. Drawing on the philosophical and theoretical notions of individuality and the responsibilities of the state of John Locke (1689; 1690), Jean Jacques Rousseau (1762); the public sphere and communicative action of Jürgen Habermas (1981; 1989); and Manuel Castells network society and new public sphere (2004; 2006; 2008), this thesis empirically investigates the role of social media, specifically Facebook, during the 2011 Egyptian Revolution. Theories and concepts including the strength of weak ties, social movement theory, and Internet and organizational theory, a discussion of recent writings from both sides of the spectrum—those believing social media to hold power and those with the opposite view—inform the theoretical foundation of this thesis. The primary purpose of this thesis is to better understand what power lies in Facebook as used during the Egyptian Revolution. Using a qualitative approach, a methodological frame is employed to examine both the form and content of Facebook posts. This study concludes three major findings regarding the social power of Facebook during the 2011 Egyptian Revolution: the power of attention and momentum, the power of cooperation, and the creation of a repository of information and communication.

The research is a practical theological exploration which analysed prophetic preaching in neo-Pentecostal Christianity during the socio-economic and socio-political crisis. At the centre of Pentecostalism is the notion of preaching and prophecy. In an attempt to understand prophetic preaching in these neo-Pentecostal churches the study examines the trends and behaviour of the neo-Pentecostal prophets and the critical aspect of how these ministries communicate the gospel to its adherents. The critical focus of the research is the question of whether the meaning of prophetic preaching refers to sermons that in some way predict the future or to preaching that addresses significant social issues and concerns. It also questions whether the adherents of these new ministries are inspired by the gospel of faith or are they driven by the socio-economic and socio-political crisis which may eventually not be accurate understanding of the gospel of Jesus Christ. The research addresses the terrors and doubts of many people who are trapped between Christian belief and terror and reaction to the declaration of the prophetic gospel of prosperity by the neo-Pentecostal prophets particularly in Zimbabwe. The theoretical statement of this research is that there appears to be an understated renewal element in the theology of neo-Pentecostal Christianity in Zimbabwe as is evidently expressed through the movement of Christians from the traditional churches to these neo-Pentecostal churches in tendencies which reflect the fluctuating religious topography and the expression of African Christianity in general and Zimbabwean Christianity in particular. The research explores the landscape, influence and importance of neo-Pentecostal Christianity in Zimbabwean community in general. The identity and nature of neo-Pentecostal Christianity in its practical theological exploration discussed the origins of the neo-Pentecostal prophets, their churches and the sermons they preach and the dynamics that promote the growth of these ministries in the context of God’s plans for evangelism and the community in particular. Fundamental to this kind of Christianity are the similes of power and prosperity which are believed to be symbols of faith. The effect and impact of this type of faith expression in the socio-economic and socio-political scene has been fully reconnoitred. The primary methodology in this research is the qualitative method complemented by quantitative methods. A practical theological framework was used in the research especially with Osmer’s core tasks of practical theological interpretation, as it was used to interpret the unfolding trends of the phenomenon under exploration. The research discloses how people’s socio-economic and socio-political fears and hopes in the hub of life’s challenges lure them toward new ministries which promise to absolutely encourage a magnificent life with real results being received in the ‘here and now’. This study has reviewed how religion and politics interacted specifically in the Zimbabwean context and how they affect each other. It has also reviewed how religion especially neo-Pentecostal Christianity, has been seen as a platform of a lavish life in the environment of people’s desires and challenges. There is longing in neo-Pentecostal Christianity, for wealth and health as expressions of salvation and a faithful Christian life. Strangely, there is diminutive references to moral and ethical issues from the neo-Pentecostal prophetic preaching, it was noted that their preaching is centred on declarations, prosperity, prophecy, deliverance, health, and miracles. These themes are the pillars of prophetic preaching in neo-Pentecostal Christianity in Zimbabwe and they are considered as signs of being saved and to have received blessings from God. When one lacks these things and economic success one is regarded as demons possessed and it causes poor health hence one needs to be delivered from the bondage of Satan. Such teachings have accustomed the potential converts to seek after material things and values as acute features of the significance of salvation and the mission of Christ. The fundamentals of the research compared the Old Testament prophets’ prophetic preaching with that of neo-Pentecostal prophets and finds that neo-Pentecostalism preaching has failed to be prophetic in the sense of eighth century prophets like Elijah, Isaiah, Amos, and Elisha who rebuked the kings, merchants, and priests for their immoral practices. Prophecy as seen from the Old Testament prophets is described as a medium of communication between God and his chosen nation Israel; prophecy was meant to rebuke, challenge and change Israel’s attitude and follow the statutes and commandments of God which were the basis for their everyday living. Hence the research has noted that the neo-Pentecostal prophets failed to meet this standard set by the ancient prophets. The research went on to expose that neo-Pentecostal Christianity encourages in an indirect way of making disciples instead of the traditional way of faith response to the gospel proclamation. But does this neo-Pentecostal gospel alleviate poverty or does it have any relevance to edify one’s life to have a better relationship with God? The eight chapters of this research has embarked on these questions, pointing the way to the four elements of preaching as a new theory for praxis. These four elements ended up looking at the gospel of contentment as a response to a dependable Christian evangelisation that is alive and related to the meaning of salvation and bring this nation out of this socio-economic and socio- political crisis. The research concludes that the four elements of preaching and especially gospel of contentment is the panacea providing meaning and solutions to the varied human fears, corruption, economic and political meltdown of the country that portrays the provisional nature of human existence. This can be achieved when the church practices prophetic preaching as the men of the eighth century did. / Thesis (PhD)--University of Pretoria, 2018. / Practical Theology / PhD / Unrestricted

China continues to invest in natural resources in Africa to fuel its economic growth.China’s expanded presence in Africa has contributed to growing tensions within the Sino-African relationship. This thesis examines a variety of historical factors that have contributed to the increased presence of China in Africa, and how these factors have evolved into the foundations of the tensions observed today. By exploring the historical patterns of the Sino-Zambian relationship, this thesis will shed light on the foundations of the underlying tensions between the two countries. With the Zambian election of 2006 as a focal point, China faced a political crisis that threatened their broader economic future. Using a double-pronged economic and political approach to mitigate the crisis, China avoided losing its economic interests in the 2006 Zambian election. But in the long run, China has continued facing the same anti-Chinese sentiments in Zambia which questions the viability of their political risk management strategy. This thesis argues that for China to mitigate a political crisis in another African country most effectively, they must modify their strategic decision making model for managing political risk. This thesis proposes an alternate framework which would most effectively address underlying tensions between China and Africa.

Já há mais de cinquenta anos, a Colômbia vem sendo palco de uma persistente luta armada. Porém, só no início dos anos 1980 foram iniciados processos de paz com as guerrilhas para tentar pôr fim ao conflito. Esta dissertação tem como objetivo comparar dois desses processos: o primeiro, durante o governo de Belisario Betancur (1982-1986); o segundo, no governo posterior de Virgilio Barco (1986-1990). Partindo de uma revisão da literatura sobre o tema, tentamos apontar para as limitações da mesma e, a partir disso, propor uma interpretação alternativa para o estudo das negociações. O problema central, portanto, é entender porque esses dois governos decidiram optar pela solução política do conflito em vez da solução militar. Para tanto, parte-se da análise dos principais regimes políticos na Colômbia durante o século XX, assim como do período conhecido como La Violencia e do surgimento das primeiras guerrilhas revolucionarias. Trata-se de entender a crise política dos anos 1980, cuja solução implicou recuperar o monopólio estatal da violência, desmobilizar as guerrilhas e possibilitar sua transformação em partidos políticos e sua participação em contendas eleitorais. O pano de fundo do processo é o desmonte da Frente Nacional e o início da abertura democrática do regime político. Ao inscrever as negociações em um contexto mais amplo de democratização e disputa política, é possível identificar mudanças do regime, oferecendo, com efeito, uma análise alternativa para os estudos acerca dos processos de paz. / Armed struggle in Colombia has existed for more than fifty years but it was only at the beginning of the 1980s when, in an attempt to end the conflict, peace negotiations with guerrillas were initiated. The goal of this dissertation is to compare two of those peace processes: the first, held under President Belisario Betancur\'s Administration (1982-1986), and the second one, under President Virgilio Barcos Administration (1986-1990). Upon reviewing existing literature on this subject, we have tried to highlight their limitations and, consequently, to propose an alternative interpretation for the study of peace negotiations. The key issue is then to understand why both Administrations chose a political solution to the conflict rather than a military one. Thus, the starting point is an analysis of the main political regimes in Colombia during the 20th century, as well as of the period of La Violencia and of the emergence of the first revolutionary guerrilla groups. The matter is to understand the political crisis of the 1980s, the solution of which meant recovering the state monopoly of violence, demobilizing the guerrillas and enabling their transformation into political parties and participation in competitive elections. The background of such process is the dismantling of the political regime known as Frente Nacional (National Front) and the beginning of the so-called democratic opening. By embedding the negotiations in such a broader context of democratization and political confrontation, it is possible to identify the regimes changes and alterations, thus providing an alternative reading for the study of peace processes.

Já há mais de cinquenta anos, a Colômbia vem sendo palco de uma persistente luta armada. Porém, só no início dos anos 1980 foram iniciados processos de paz com as guerrilhas para tentar pôr fim ao conflito. Esta dissertação tem como objetivo comparar dois desses processos: o primeiro, durante o governo de Belisario Betancur (1982-1986); o segundo, no governo posterior de Virgilio Barco (1986-1990). Partindo de uma revisão da literatura sobre o tema, tentamos apontar para as limitações da mesma e, a partir disso, propor uma interpretação alternativa para o estudo das negociações. O problema central, portanto, é entender porque esses dois governos decidiram optar pela solução política do conflito em vez da solução militar. Para tanto, parte-se da análise dos principais regimes políticos na Colômbia durante o século XX, assim como do período conhecido como La Violencia e do surgimento das primeiras guerrilhas revolucionarias. Trata-se de entender a crise política dos anos 1980, cuja solução implicou recuperar o monopólio estatal da violência, desmobilizar as guerrilhas e possibilitar sua transformação em partidos políticos e sua participação em contendas eleitorais. O pano de fundo do processo é o desmonte da Frente Nacional e o início da abertura democrática do regime político. Ao inscrever as negociações em um contexto mais amplo de democratização e disputa política, é possível identificar mudanças do regime, oferecendo, com efeito, uma análise alternativa para os estudos acerca dos processos de paz. / Armed struggle in Colombia has existed for more than fifty years but it was only at the beginning of the 1980s when, in an attempt to end the conflict, peace negotiations with guerrillas were initiated. The goal of this dissertation is to compare two of those peace processes: the first, held under President Belisario Betancur\'s Administration (1982-1986), and the second one, under President Virgilio Barcos Administration (1986-1990). Upon reviewing existing literature on this subject, we have tried to highlight their limitations and, consequently, to propose an alternative interpretation for the study of peace negotiations. The key issue is then to understand why both Administrations chose a political solution to the conflict rather than a military one. Thus, the starting point is an analysis of the main political regimes in Colombia during the 20th century, as well as of the period of La Violencia and of the emergence of the first revolutionary guerrilla groups. The matter is to understand the political crisis of the 1980s, the solution of which meant recovering the state monopoly of violence, demobilizing the guerrillas and enabling their transformation into political parties and participation in competitive elections. The background of such process is the dismantling of the political regime known as Frente Nacional (National Front) and the beginning of the so-called democratic opening. By embedding the negotiations in such a broader context of democratization and political confrontation, it is possible to identify the regimes changes and alterations, thus providing an alternative reading for the study of peace processes.

Submitted by William Justo Figueiro (williamjf) on 2015-07-10T21:42:47Z No. of bitstreams: 1 37b.pdf: 4537634 bytes, checksum: 82159d680197215fe6389a123ed11c85 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2015-07-10T21:42:47Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 37b.pdf: 4537634 bytes, checksum: 82159d680197215fe6389a123ed11c85 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013-04-29 / Nenhuma / A crise política que resultou na renúncia de Fernando Collor de Mello do cargo de presidente da República, em 1992, é um acontecimento histórico que causou considerável impacto no meio político e social. O processo de impeachment movido foi um fato inédito até então, e os protestos de parte da população que saiu às ruas para pedir o afastamento de Collor marcaram época. Desde a publicação pela revista Veja da entrevista em que Pedro Collor, irmão do presidente, o denunciava como beneficiário de um amplo esquema de corrupção arquitetado pelo empresário Paulo César Farias, a imprensa brasileira, com destaque para a citada revista, desempenhou um papel importante ao publicar denúncias de corrupção ou mesmo ao investigá-las. Em vista da relevância de Veja no decorrer da cobertura da crise política, ela foi selecionada como a principal fonte da pesquisa. Para análise, foram escolhidas duas seções do periódico – “Carta ao leitor” e a seção assinada pelo humorista Jô Soares – para responder à seguinte indagação: como o discurso de Veja repercutiu a crise política e em que medida as referidas seções do periódico a abordam de forma distinta. O recorte temporal inicia com a citada entrevista de Pedro Collor, em maio de 1992, e abrange até a última edição do mesmo ano, quando a crise política foi o assunto principal nas duas seções analisadas. Outras seções, como as reportagens políticas, foram utilizadas de maneira complementar para contextualizar os acontecimentos. O objetivo é contribuir para o conjunto de estudos historiográficos sobre a atuação dos veículos de informação, particularmente no que diz respeito aos períodos de aguda crise política. Espera-se que a dissertação contribua para uma compreensão mais apurada de um capítulo complexo da recente história política brasileira. / The political crisis which resulted in the renouncement of Fernando Collor de Mello from the republic presidency in 1992 is a historical happening that caused a considerable impact in the social and political environments. The impeachment process was never seen until then, and the popupaltion manifestations that went out on the streets to ask for removal of Collor was a mark in time. Since Veja's interview in which Pedro Collor, the president's brother, denounced him as a benefiter of a large corruption scheme that was architected by the entrepeneur Paulo César Farias, brazilian press, with emphasis in the mentioned megazine, it developed an important role when publishing denounciations of corruption or even investigating them. Facing the relevance of Veja throughout covering the political crisis, it was selected as the main research source. For analysis, two sections of the periodic were chosen – "Carta ao leitor" (letter to the reader) and the one signed by Jô Soares -- to answer the following question: how has Veja speech reverbereted in the political crisis and in what measure the referred sections of the periodical approached it some different way. The analysis starts by Pedro Collor's interview, in may of 1992, and encloses until the last edition of the same year, when the political crisis was the main subject in both analysed sections. Others, such as political reports, were used as complementary to contextualize the happenings. The purpose is to contribute for the conjunct of historiographical studies about the way information vehicles act, particularly about political deep crisis. It is expected that this monography contributes for some more acute comprehension of a complex chapter of the recent brazilian political history.