Submitted by Filipe dos Santos (fsantos@pucsp.br) on 2017-09-29T12:33:59Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Vitor Arzani Martins.pdf: 5095013 bytes, checksum: adea7007a39500128941c7fd5275e41a (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-09-29T12:33:59Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Vitor Arzani Martins.pdf: 5095013 bytes, checksum: adea7007a39500128941c7fd5275e41a (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-09-18 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior - CAPES / The following research is the result of an analysis that begins in 2015 and has the objective to analyze the relation between the newspaper “O Estado de São Paulo” and the influence that comes from its public by considering the opinion polls disclosed by the Instituto Brasileiro de Pesquisa de Opinião, also knows as IBOPE, into the crises that culminates in the Coup d´Etat in 1964. The studied period understands that the line that stars at Jânio Quadros resignation on august 25, 1961 to the Coup with the consequent deposition of his vice president, João Goulart, in april 1st, 1964, and have as research source the editions of the newspaper above mentioned and some opinion polls find in the Edgard Leuenroth Archive. Throughout the research, indications were found in the newspaper that corroborates to the hypothesis that “O Estado de São Paulo” selects its public by the kind of language and the graphic structure of the published pages, despite don’t considering almost ever the public opinion in its tireless work, creating a negative image of the João Goulart government. It was verified along the research that the newspaper build a kind of narrative with his journalistic content with the aim of causing in its pages an impression of chaos in the country. For these narratives, we attribute the name of “Catastrophic Narratives”. The result of the analysis present in this work is the confirmation of the fact that the newspaper doesn’t bother itself with the public opinion, but with the future judgment that it’s actions implies, by the fear that the conclusion that it was an elite tool to promote the coup threat its survival as a vehicle of “impartial” information and the perpetuation as a capitalist enterprise / A pesquisa a seguir é resultado do trabalho que começou em 2015 tendo como objetivo analisar a relação entre o jornal “O Estado de São Paulo” e a influência que emana de seu público, considerando pesquisas de opinião publicadas pelo Instituto Brasileiro de Pesquisa de Opinião, também conhecido como IBOPE, na crise que culminou no golpe de Estado em 1964. O período estudado compreende a linha que se inicia na renúncia de Jânio Quadros em 25 de agosto de 1961 até o golpe com a consequente deposição de seu vice-presidente João Goulart em 1 de abril de 1964 e tem como fontes de pesquisa as edições do jornal no período supracitado e algumas pesquisas de opinião encontradas no arquivo Edgard Leuenroth Ao longo da pesquisa foram encontrados indícios que corroboravam com a hipótese de que o jornal “O Estado de São Paulo” seleciona seu público pelo tipo de linguagem e estrutura gráfica de suas páginas publicadas, apesar de não considerar quase em nenhum momento a opinião pública em seu incansável trabalho de criar uma imagem negativa do governo de João Goulart. Foi verificado ao longo do trabalho que o periódico construiu narrativas com seu conteúdo jornalístico com o objetivo de causar em suas páginas uma impressão de caos no país. Para essas narrativas nós atribuímos o nome de “Narrativas catastróficas”. O resultado da análise presente neste trabalho é a confirmação do fato de que o jornal não se incomoda com a opinião de seu público leitor, mas sim com o julgamento futuro que suas ações implicam, pelo medo da conclusão de fora ele uma ferramenta da elite para a promoção do golpe, ameaçando sua sobrevivência como veículo “imparcial” de informações e sua perpetuação como empresa capitalista

Dans les démocraties occidentales, la notion d’opinion publique occupe une place importante dans l’action des politiciens et le discours des médias. Elle y renvoie généralement à la somme des opinions individuelles des citoyens, aux résultats de sondages. Or, les limites de l’opinion publique ainsi conceptualisée apparaissent de plus en plus clairement aux chercheurs en sciences sociales, et cela jette un doute sur sa valeur comme guide des politiques publiques. Pour mieux comprendre la place de l’opinion publique dans le processus démocratique québécois, nous avons cherché à connaître les conceptions qu’en ont certains acteurs-clés : les chroniqueurs politiques et éditorialistes francophones du Québec. Au moyen d’entrevues, nous avons documenté leurs « théories profanes » à ce sujet, c’est à dire leurs façons de voir l’opinion publique et sa place dans le processus démocratique. L’exercice nous apprend que ces « commentateurs habituels » distinguent plusieurs formes d’opinion publique, de valeur inégale. Celle qui revêt le plus d’intérêt pour eux est une « opinion publique latente », qui intègre des dimensions d’intensité et de propension à changer. Ils jugent les sondages utiles mais insuffisants pour appréhender l’opinion publique; aussi l’interprètent-ils à partir de conversations et d’un certain « sens de l’opinion publique ». Selon eux, les médias peuvent influencer l’opinion publique, mais surtout influencer la tenue d’une délibération publique et la façon dont les décideurs lisent l’opinion publique. Ils estiment aussi pouvoir, par leur travail journalistique, favoriser l’émergence d’une opinion publique raisonnée, ce qui est conforme à leur idéal de démocratie participative. / The notion of public opinion is central to political action and media coverage of politics, in western democracies. It usually refers to the sum of all citizens’ individual attitudes, and to survey results. Yet, the limitations of public opinion thus conceptualized appears ever more clearly to scholars, calling into question its value as an input to the political process. In order to better understand the role of public opinion in the political process in Quebec, we have been seeking to understand how some important political actors — elite francophone political columnists and editorialists — view public opinion. By interviewing those journalists, we gathered their “lay theories”, i.e. the way they understand public opinion and its place in the democratic process. We found out that these pundits distinguish different types of public opinion, which are of unequal value to them. They are mostly interested in “latent public opinion”, a concept that includes dimensions of intensity and transformation potential of opinion. They believe surveys are somewhat useful, but incomplete tools for assessing public opinion. Therefore, they turn to other means of knowing it: conversations, and a certain “public opinion sense”. According to them, the media can have an influence on public opinion, but above all it can have an influence on public deliberation and on the way politicians view public opinion. Respondents also believe they can contribute, by their journalistic work, to the construction of a more considered public opinion — which is in tune with their ideal of participatory democracy.

Submitted by Milena Rubi (milenarubi@ufscar.br) on 2016-10-17T13:16:57Z No. of bitstreams: 1 LOCHTER_Johannes_2015.pdf: 611113 bytes, checksum: 55a3009a4bb5c0fe9f30edf98fe0bc77 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Milena Rubi (milenarubi@ufscar.br) on 2016-10-17T13:17:13Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 LOCHTER_Johannes_2015.pdf: 611113 bytes, checksum: 55a3009a4bb5c0fe9f30edf98fe0bc77 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Milena Rubi (milenarubi@ufscar.br) on 2016-10-17T13:17:24Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 LOCHTER_Johannes_2015.pdf: 611113 bytes, checksum: 55a3009a4bb5c0fe9f30edf98fe0bc77 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-10-17T13:17:36Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 LOCHTER_Johannes_2015.pdf: 611113 bytes, checksum: 55a3009a4bb5c0fe9f30edf98fe0bc77 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-11-18 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES) / The popularity of social networks have attracted attention of companies. The growing amount of connected users and messages posted per day make these environments fruitful to detect needs, tendencies, opinions, and other interesting information that can feed marketing and sales departments. However, the most social networks impose size limit to messages, which lead users to compact them by using abbreviations, slangs, and symbols. Recent works in literature have reported advances in minimizing the impact created by noisy messages in text categorization tasks by means of semantic dictionaries and ontology models. They are used to normalize and expand short and messy text messages before using them with a machine learning approach. In this way, we have proposed an ensemble of machine learning methods and natural language processing techniques to find the best way to combine text processing approaches with classification methods to automatically detect opinion in short english text messages. Our experiments were diligently designed to ensure statistically sound results, which indicate that the proposed system has achieved a performance higher than the individual established classifiers. / A popularidade das redes sociais tem atraído a atenção das empresas. O crescimento do número de usuários e das mensagens enviadas por dia transforma esse ambiente em uma rica fonte de informações para descoberta de necessidades, tendências, opiniões e outras informações que podem auxiliar departamentos de vendas e marketing. Contudo,a maioria das redes sociais impõe limite no tamanho das mensagens, o que leva os usuários a usarem abreviações e gírias para compactarem o texto. Trabalhos na literatura demonstraram avanço na minimização do impacto de mensagens ruidosas nas tarefas de categorização textual através da utilização de dicionários semânticos e modelos ontológicos. Com a aplicação destes, as amostras são normalizadas e expandidas antes de serem apresentadas aos métodos preditivos. Assim, nesta dissertação é proposto um comitê de máquinas de classificação utilizando técnicas de processamento de linguagem natural para detectar opiniões automaticamente em mensagens curtas de texto em inglês. Os resulta-dos apresentados foram validados estatisticamente e indicaram que o sistema proposto obteve capacidade preditiva superior aos métodos preditivos isolados.

Submitted by Renata Lopes (renatasil82@gmail.com) on 2018-07-13T15:08:29Z No. of bitstreams: 1 thandaramariakathleendasilva.pdf: 8098059 bytes, checksum: 10b3e2aa5918f7826b5f18da04cfae69 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Adriana Oliveira (adriana.oliveira@ufjf.edu.br) on 2018-09-03T16:17:06Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 thandaramariakathleendasilva.pdf: 8098059 bytes, checksum: 10b3e2aa5918f7826b5f18da04cfae69 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-09-03T16:17:06Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 thandaramariakathleendasilva.pdf: 8098059 bytes, checksum: 10b3e2aa5918f7826b5f18da04cfae69 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2018-06-12 / O objetivo deste trabalho é analisar o retorno eleitoral do Programa Minha Casa Minha Vida (MCMV) obtido pela candidata do governo Dilma Rousseff nos pleitos presidenciais. A votação eleitoral no Brasil é influenciada por uma série de características não observadas, tais como clientelismo, coronelismo, preferências individuais, voto de cabresto etc. Se tais características não forem levadas em conta na análise, o retorno eleitoral de programas sociais como MCMV e Bolsa-Família pode não ser adequadamente captado. Para contornar isso, foram estimadas regressões usando dados em painel com controle de efeitos fixos em nível microrregional. Os resultados revelam que há evidência de retorno eleitoral nulo do MCMV. Ao contrário, constatou-se ainda a existência de retorno eleitoral do Bolsa-Família em todas as regressões. / The aim of this study is to analyze the electoral return of the Minha Casa Minha Vida Program (MCMV) obtained by the incumbent candidate Dilma Rousseff in the presidential elections. Brazilian polls are affected by various non-observed characteristics, such as patronage, "coronelismo", individual preferences, "voto de cabresto" etc. If these characteristics are not taken into account in the analysis, the electoral return of social programs like MCMV and Bolsa-Familia (BF) cannot be properly captured. To solve this problem, a fixed effect model was estimated at the micro-regional level. The findings reveal that there is evidence of electoral return null of MCMV. Still, the electoral return of BF program was verified in all estimated regressions.

The thesis aims to discuss a theoretical framework of the U. S. congressional midterm elections and specify their fundamental funtions and importance. The thesis analyses the transformation of midterm elections as well as their effects on the political system with a special focus on the period 1990-2008. Following the analysis of particular midterm elections, it concludes that some of the theoretical premises need to be revised.

The diploma thesis "Estimation of the election results by respondents and its usage" discuss the methods of predicting the election results based on election expectations of individuals and shows how people form their expectations and how exact these expectations are. First short summary of existing methods of election results predictions and its limitations is presented - it also deals with pre-election surveys and its ambitions to predict the election results. The rest of the thesis focuses only on the prediction of the election results based on election expectations of individuals: prediction markets and aggregated estimations of respondents. Concept Wisdom of Crowds, from which both approaches originate, is presented together with concrete examples of application of the predictions based on opinions of prediction markets participants and respondents of the pre-election surveys. Results of the foreign studies confirm that the prediction markets predict the election results very well and with higher accuracy than the pre-election surveys. Current studies also positively evaluate the estimation of the election results done by respondents. Respondents are usually able to predict the election results, even several weeks before the elections. Last part of the thesis is based on my own quantitative...

The purpose of this thesis is partly to analyze the influence of opinion polls on minor parties in the Swedish parliament and partly to study how those minor parties react to poor results in opinion polls. Previous research in the field has been conducted by researchers such as Per Oleskog Tryggvason, who constructed four arenas; internal, electoral, media and parliamentary, in which parties tend to respond to changes in opinion polls. This thesis contribution is to test the results of previous research with the choice of a qualitative method, in contrast to the large amount of quantitative research already conducted in the field. In addition we also found and examined a research gap about how minor parties strategically respond to changes in the arenas, through nine in-depth interviews with mainly former party secretaries. The results show that our study confirms what previous research has said about how opinion polls have affected political parties. Our analysis also shows that minor parties react to poor opinion polls in different arenas, for example they tend to work harder internally, clarify their policies and seek more visibility. Horewer, more research is needed to increase knowledge about the parties' actions against opinion figures.

The diploma thesis examines new phenomena of electronic democracy which is becoming more popular with the internet expansion. The thesis summarizes existing research in the field of electronic democracy from a view of forms that could be or are taken. The aim of this summarization is to show that new transformational changes affecting our society do not automatically implicate a shift towards direct democracy. Using theoretical summarization a state of the art of electronic democracy in the Czech Republic is described. Importance is given to an analysis of contemporary evolving tools and initiatives which were developed from two directions - top-down and a bottom up. A part of this analysis is an assessment of important factors that are stimulating a development of electronic participation - freedom of information right, internet penetration and computer literacy.

Bibliographic record PROKOP, Daniel. (2012). Election polls in the Czech Republic: Methodological Optimization. Charles University in Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institut of Sociological Studies. Thesis academic consultant: Mgr. Jindřich Krejčí, Ph.D. Abstract The thesis focuses on the election-polls and prediction of election results in the Czech Republic. Using data of research company MEDIAN s.r.o. from face-to-face (CAPI) and telephone interviewing (CATI) in election year 2010 it examines possibilities of methodological optimizations which could lead to reducing systematic bias and discrepancies of pre-election polls the election results. In particular, it discusses these methodological solutions: mix-mode data collection (combination of CATI and CAPI), data weighting focused on specific factors correlated with voting behavior, including preferences of undecided voters, prediction of the respondents' participation in elections, election-polls results time-series smoothing. Based on these analyses the thesis tries to articulate general findings which could be fruitful in discussion about Czech election-polls and their methodology in general. In the thesis, basic and advanced statistic methods (CART, exponential smoothing, etc.) are being used to achieve given research goals. Keywords: election...