This thesis consists of three essays that explore the dynamics of interconnected markets and examine the relationships between markets, investor behavior, and fundamental characteristics of the firm and the economy. In the first essay, we investigate the role of trade credit links in generating cross-border return predictability between international firms. Using data from 43 countries from 1993 to 2009, we find that firms with high trade credit in producer countries have stock returns that are strongly predictable based on the returns of their associated customer countries. This behavior is especially prevalent among firms with high levels of foreign sales. To better understand this effect we develop an asset pricing model in which firms in different countries are connected by trade credit links. The model offers further predictions about this phenomenon, including stronger predictability during periods of high credit constraints and low uninformed trading volume. We find supportive empirical evidence for these predictions. The second essay investigates the dynamics of commodity futures volatility. I derive the variance decomposition for the futures basis to show how unexpected excess returns result from new information about expected future interest rates, convenience yields, and risk premia. Using data on major commodity futures markets and global bilateral commodity trade, I analyze the extent to which commodity volatility is related to fundamental uncertainty arising from increased emerging market demand and macroeconomic uncertainty, and control for the potential impact of financial frictions introduced by changing market structure and index trading. I find that a higher concentration in the emerging market importers of a commodity is associated with higher futures volatility. Commodity futures volatility is significantly predictable using variables capturing macroeconomic uncertainty. The third essay investigates the differential explanatory power of consumer (importing countries) and producer (exporting countries) risk in explaining the volatility of commodity spot premia and term premia using trade-weighted indices of GDP volatility. Using data for major commodity futures markets, bilateral commodity trade, exchange rates, and GDP for countries trading these commodities, I test hypotheses on the heterogeneous impact of consumer and producer shocks, potentially driven by differences in hedging preferences and investment planning horizons. Producer risk is significant for both short-dated and long-dated maturities, while consumer risk has greater explanatory power for the volatility of the term spread.

Dans les pays du Sud ruraux et à faibles revenus, la vulnérabilité des zones agricoles pluviales, face à la variabilité pluviométrique, nécessite de trouver des solutions efficaces pour limiter les effets des aléas climatiques sur les récoltes. La prévision des caractéristiques des saisons des pluies quelque temps avant leur démarrage devrait aider à l’établissement de stratégies agricoles d’adaptation aux aléas pluviométriques. C’est à cet objectif que s’attache ce travail, appliqué à l’Afrique de l’Est (Kenya et nord de la Tanzanie), et articulé en 3 parties :- Définir et comprendre le comportement des descripteurs intra saisonniers (DIS) qui feront l’objet de l’étude de prévisibilité. Un travail spécifique a permis le développement d’une nouvelle approche méthodologique dans la manière de définir les démarrages (DSP) et fins (FSP) de saisons des pluies à l’échelle régionale. Cette approche basée sur une analyse multivariée, permet de s’affranchir des choix subjectifs de seuils pluviométriques imposés par les définitions communément utilisée en agro-climatologie. Une analyse de cohérence spatiale à l’échelle inter annuelle montre que, pour les deux saisons des pluies (long rains et short rains), le cumul saisonnier et le nombre de jours de pluie présentent une forte cohérence spatiale, tandis qu’elle est plus modérée pour le démarrage et fin des saisons et faible pour l’intensité quotidienne moyenne.- Analyser la prévisibilité des DIS aux 2 échelles spatiales régionale et locale en s’appuyant sur les simulations numériques du modèle climatique global ECHAM 4.5. Les précipitations quotidiennes simulées par le modèle, même après correction des biais, ne permettent pas d’appréhender correctement la variabilité interannuelle des DIS. Une spécification de la variabilité des DSP et FSP menée par le biais de modèles statistiques construits à partir d’indices climatiques observés, présuppose une prévisibilité modérée des deux descripteurs à l’échelle locale (régionale), et cela quelle que soit la saison. Le développement de modèles statistico-dynamiques à partir des champs de vents simulés par ECHAM 4.5, en mode forcé par les températures marines observées d’une part et prévues d’autre part, montre également des performances faibles localement et régionalement. - Explorer la manière dont la variabilité spatio-temporelle des paramètres climatiques et environnementaux module la variabilité des rendements de sorgho. Ces rendements sont simulés par le modèle agronomique SARRA-H à partir de données climatiques observées (1973-2001) dans 3 stations localisées à différentes altitudes le long des pentes orientales du Mt Kenya. Le cumul précipité et la durée de la saison expliquent une part importante de la variabilité des rendements. D’autres variables apparaissent comme jouant un rôle non négligeable ; le nombre de jours de pluies, l’intensité quotidienne moyenne ou encore certains DIS relatifs à l’organisation temporelle des pluies au sein d’une saison en font partie. L’influence des autres variables météorologiques est seulement visible pour les ‘long rains’ avec une covariation négative entre les rendements et les températures maximales ou, le rayonnement global. La date de semis semble jouer un rôle dans la modulation des rendements pour les stations de haute et moyenne altitudes, mais avec des différences notables entre les deux saisons des pluies. / In Southern countries with rural low income populations, the vulnerability of rainfed agriculture to rainfall variability requires effective solutions to mitigate the effects of climatic hazards on crops. Predicting the characteristics of rainy seasons some time before they start should help the establishment of agricultural adaptation strategies to rainfall hazards. This is the objective of the present study, focused on East Africa (Kenya and northern Tanzania), and divided in three parts:- Define and document intra-seasonal descriptors (ISD) that will be considered in the predictability study. A new methodological approach has been developed in order to define the onset date (ORS) and the cessation date (CRS) of the rainy seasons at the regional level. Based on a multivariate analysis, it eliminates the subjective choice of rainfall thresholds imposed by the definitions commonly used in agroclimatology. An analysis of spatial coherence at interannual time-scale shows that for the two rainy seasons ("long rains" and "short rains"), the seasonal amount and the number of rainy days have a high spatial coherence, while it is medium for the onset and cessation dates and low for the average daily rainfall intensity.- Analyze the predictability of the ISD at both regional and local scales based on numerical simulations from the global climate model ECHAM 4.5. Daily precipitation simulated by the model, even after bias correction, do not correctly capture the IDS interannual variability. A specification of the ORS and CRS variability using statistical models applied to observed climate indices, suggests quite a low predictability of the descriptors at the local (regional) scale, regardless of the season. The development of statistical-dynamical models from wind fields simulated by ECHAM 4.5, in experiments forced by either observed or predicted sea temperatures, also shows quite poor skills locally and regionally.- Explore how the space-time variability of climatic and environmental factors modulate the variations of sorghum yields. Crop yields are simulated by the agronomic model SARRA-H using observed climate data (1973-2001) at three stations located at different elevations along the eastern slopes of Mt Kenya. The seasonal rainfall accumulation and the duration of the season account for a large part of the yields variability. Other rainfall variables also play a significant role, among which the number of rainy days, the average daily intensity and some ISD related to the temporal organization of rainfall within the season. The influence of other meteorological variables is only found during the long rains, in the form of a negative correlation between yields and both maximum temperature and global radiation. Sowing dates seem to play a role in modulating yields for high and medium altitude stations, but with notable differences between the two rainy seasons.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-04-26T20:22:55Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Lilian Regina Ioti Henrique Gaspar.pdf: 915540 bytes, checksum: 3bd23f09c211003c63c6611d95e11d21 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014-06-10 / Both the Common Law legal systems and the Civil Law jurisdictions, aims to guard legal certainty and equality, given that these principles are essential to ensuring a fair and equitable society. This paper will demonstrate the importance of predictability for the establishment of a state founded on these principles. In this sense, become relevant the Supreme Courts, to the extent that they are responsible for giving unit to the law, that can be achieved through the establishment of precedents, to be followed by hierarchically lower courts. Thus, the idea that the judiciary is the body that acts, alone, in the resolution of individual disputes is obsolete and no longer consistent with the notion of system that must prevail in any legal system. It is based on the positions adopted by the judiciary that citizens should guide their conduct. Therefore, for the judicial system to be effective and can provide legal certainty and equality for citizens, there must be mechanisms to confer binding to judicial precedents. Given this, will then be focused the technique of repetitive extraordinary and special appeals trial, introduced in our legal system by the Acts 11.418 passed in 2006 and 11.472 passed in 2008, through the articles 543-B and 543-C of the Civil Procedure Code, as a way to demonstrate their ability to provide predictability to the law, by giving unity to its interpretation, enabling identical cases receive the same solution of the judiciary. Within this perspective this work, which, in a critical way, try to force a larger reflection on the institutes involved will be developed / Tanto os sistemas jurisdicionais de Common Law, quanto as jurisdições de Civil Law, tem por objetivo o resguardo da segurança jurídica e da isonomia, tendo em vista que tais princípios são essenciais para a garantia de uma sociedade justa e igualitária. O presente trabalho demonstrará a importância da previsibilidade do direito para o estabelecimento de um Estado fundado nesses preceitos. Nesse sentido, ganham relevância os Tribunais de Cúpula, na medida em que são eles os responsáveis por conceder unidade ao direito, unidade esta que pode ser alcançada por meio do estabelecimento de precedentes, que devem ser seguidos pelos tribunais hierarquicamente inferiores. Assim, a ideia de que o Judiciário é órgão que atua, tão somente, na resolução dos conflitos individuais é obsoleta e não mais condiz com a noção de sistema, que deve imperar em qualquer ordenamento jurídico. Com efeito, é com base nas posições adotadas pelo Poder Judiciário que os cidadãos devem pautar suas condutas. Portanto, para que o sistema jurisdicional seja efetivo e consiga proporcionar segurança jurídica e isonomia aos cidadãos, deve haver mecanismos capazes de conferir força obrigatória aos precedentes judiciais. Diante disso, será, então, enfocada a técnica de julgamento de recursos extraordinários e especiais repetitivos, introduzida em nosso ordenamento jurídico pelas Leis 11.418 de 2006 e 11.472 de 2008, por meio dos arts. 543-B e 543-C, do Código de Processo Civil, como forma de demonstrar a sua capacidade de assegurar previsibilidade ao direito, ao conceder unidade à sua interpretação, possibilitando que casos idênticos recebam a mesma solução do Judiciário. Dentro dessa ótica será desenvolvido este trabalho, que, de uma maneira crítica, tentará forçar uma maior reflexão acerca dos institutos envolvidos

La rencontre intervenue entre les biens protégés par le droit de la propriété intellectuelle et l'internet ne s'est pas faite sans heurts. Ubiquitaire, immatériel, anonyme et transfrontalier sont autant de spécificités de l'internet qui mettent en péril les prérogatives des titulaires de droit de propriété intellectuelle. Dans cette optique, l'identification des usages couverts par un droit de propriété intellectuelle est un enjeu essentiel pour déterminer le périmètre de la contrefaçon en ligne. Ainsi, la portée des droits de propriété intellectuelle sur l'internet détermine le périmètre de la contrefaçon en ligne. Dans cet environnement numérique, la portée des droits de propriété intellectuels ne peut être révélé qu'à l'étude de la masse des atteintes qu'ils endurent. Or, cette analyse ne souffre aucune ambiguïté. Il en résulte incontestablement le constat d'une limitation de la portée des droits exclusifs dans l'environnement numérique. Par ailleurs, la protection des droits de propriété intellectuelle est également affaiblie lors du traitement de la contrefaçon en ligne. En ce domaine, l'intervention du droit international privé est fréquente puisque les atteintes aux droits de la propriété intellectuelle présente souvent un élément d'extranéité. Toutefois, les critères de rattachement territoriaux prévus par la règle de conflit rendent difficile la détermination de la juridiction compétente dans un contentieux partiellement ou totalement dématérialisé. La responsabilité des acteurs de l'internet présente également de nombreuses faiblesses favorisant la diffusion de tout type de contenu / The meeting between property, protected by property rights an the internet has not been easy. Omnipresent, intangible and anonymity are so many of the particularities of the internet that jeopardize the privilege of the owners of intellectual property rights. In this context the identification of uses covere by an intellectual property right is a key issue in determining the scope of online counterfeiting. In this digital environment, the scope of intellectual property rights can be revealed by studying the mass of infringements they are subjected to. The above analysis is unbiased. This undeniably results in a limitation of the scope of exclusive rights in the digital environment. In addition, the protection of intellectual property rights is also weakened when dealing with cyber-counterfeiting. In this field, the intervention of private international law is frequent since when the infringements of intellectual property rights begin having an element of foreignness. However, the territorial attachment criteria provided by the conflict’s rule make it difficult to determine the competent jurisdiction in a partially or totally dematerialized legal dispute. The responsibility of Internet protagonists also has many weaknesses promoting the dissemination of any type of information

這篇論文研究跨國投資與監理寬容下保險公司之破產問題，同時論文的相關內容簡述於論文第一章中。第二章研究考慮匯率可預測下對跨國投資人資產配置的影響，結果顯示匯率可預測性能有效的提升投資人期末財富。第三章考慮監理寬容下保險公司的破產問題，在美國破產保護法第11章的架構下，保險人與被保險人之權利義務關係，可利用巴黎式選擇權描述，同時建構保證給付指標來衡量不同監理干預準則，數值結果顯示過於寬鬆的監理準則將導致被保險人的財務損失。第四章探討監理寬容下保險安定基金保險費率問題，依照美國破產保護法第11章的架構，安定基金保費可簡化成2個巴黎式選擇權，結果顯示，當前台灣保險單定基金費率有偏低的情形，建議主管機關訂定安定基金費率時需更加謹慎小心。 / This thesis focuses on the international portfolio selection and the bankruptcy cost of the insurance company under regulatory forbearance. The main theme of this thesis is outlined in chapter 1, which also serves as an introduction to the three papers (appearing here as Chapter 2, Chapter 3 and Chapter 4) collected in this thesis. In the theme of the international portfolio selection, Chapter 2 investigates the investment behaviors when learning effect is considered. According to the exchange rate predictability, the investor updates his information and adjusts his portfolio allocation. Finally, the numerical results show that the learning mechanism significantly improves the terminal wealth. In the theme of the regulatory forbearance, Chapter 3 provides an illustration of the impact on the ruin cost due to regulatory forbearance. The concept of the U.S. Chapter 11 bankruptcy code is employed to determine regulatory forbearance. Throughout the framework of Parisian option, a quantitative index of regulatory forbearance called Guarantee Benefit Index (GBI) is developed. The GBI is used to evaluate the different supervisory intervention criteria i.e., relative and absolute intervention criteria. Finally, numerical analysis is performed to illustrate the influence of different financial factors and the intervention criteria. Another important issue in bankruptcy problem is discussed in Chapter 4, i.e., the cost of insurance guaranty fund. It is important to determine the cost of bankruptcy when the insolvent insurance company is took over by the government. Under the U.S. Chapter 11 bankruptcy code, the cost of guaranty fund can be determined through Parisian options. Results show that the current premium rates of Taiwan insurance guarantee fund are far from risk sensitive. Hence the results suggest the government should more prudent to face the bankruptcy problem in insurance industry.

In reading, word frequency is commonly regarded as the major bottom-up determinant for the speed of lexical access. Moreover, language processing depends on top-down information, such as the predictability of a word from a previous context. Yet, however, the exact role of top-down predictions in visual word recognition is poorly understood: They may rapidly affect lexical processes, or alternatively, influence only late post-lexical stages. To add evidence about the nature of top-down processes and their relation to bottom-up information in the timeline of word recognition, we examined influences of frequency and predictability on event-related potentials (ERPs) in several sentence reading studies. The results were related to eye movements from natural reading as well as to models of word recognition. As a first and major finding, interactions of frequency and predictability on ERP amplitudes consistently revealed top-down influences on lexical levels of word processing (Chapters 2 and 4). Second, frequency and predictability mediated relations between N400 amplitudes and fixation durations, pointing to their sensitivity to a common stage of word recognition; further, larger N400 amplitudes entailed longer fixation durations on the next word, a result providing evidence for ongoing processing beyond a fixation (Chapter 3). Third, influences of presentation rate on ERP frequency and predictability effects demonstrated that the time available for word processing critically co-determines the course of bottom-up and top-down influences (Chapter 4). Fourth, at a near-normal reading speed, an early predictability effect suggested the rapid comparison of top-down hypotheses with the actual visual input (Chapter 5). The present results are compatible with interactive models of word recognition assuming that early lexical processes depend on the concerted impact of bottom-up and top-down information. We offered a framework that reconciles the findings on a timeline of word recognition taking into account influences of frequency, predictability, and presentation rate (Chapter 4). / Wortfrequenz wird in der Leseforschung als wesentliche Bottom-up Determinante für die Geschwindigkeit des lexikalischen Zugriffs betrachtet. Darüber hinaus spielen Top-down Informationen, wie die kontextbasierte Wortvorhersagbarkeit, in der Sprachverarbeitung eine wichtige Rolle. Bislang ist die exakte Bedeutung von Top-down Vorhersagen in der visuellen Worterkennung jedoch unzureichend verstanden: Es herrscht Uneinigkeit darüber, ob ausschließlich späte post-lexikalische, oder auch frühe lexikalische Verarbeitungsstufen durch Vorhersagbarkeit beeinflusst werden. Um ein besseres Verständnis von Top-down Prozessen und deren Zusammenhänge mit Bottom-up Informationen in der Worterkennung zu gewährleisten, wurden in der vorliegenden Arbeit Einflüsse von Frequenz und Vorhersagbarkeit auf ereigniskorrelierte Potentiale (EKPs) untersucht. Die Ergebnisse aus mehreren Satzlesestudien wurden mit Blickbewegungen beim natürlichen Lesen sowie mit Modellen der Worterkennung in Beziehung gesetzt. Als primärer Befund zeigten sich in EKP Amplituden konsistent Interaktionen zwischen Frequenz und Vorhersagbarkeit. Die Ergebnisse deuten auf Top-down Einflüsse während lexikalischer Wortverarbeitungsstufen hin (Kapitel 2 und 4). Zweitens mediierten Frequenz und Vorhersagbarkeit Zusammenhänge zwischen N400 Amplituden und Fixationsdauern; die Modulation beider abhängigen Maße lässt auf eine gemeinsame Wortverarbeitungsstufe schließen. Desweiteren signalisierten längere Fixationsdauern nach erhöhten N400 Amplituden das Andauern der Wortverarbeitung über die Dauer einer Fixation hinaus (Kapitel 3). Drittens zeigten sich Einflüsse der Präsentationsrate auf Frequenz- und Vorhersagbarkeitseffekte in EKPs. Der Verlauf von Bottom-up und Top-down Prozessen wird demnach entscheidend durch die zur Wortverarbeitung verfügbaren Zeit mitbestimmt (Kapitel 4). Viertens deutete ein früher Vorhersagbarkeitseffekt bei einer leseähnlichen Präsentationsgeschwindigkeit auf den schnellen Abgleich von Top-down Vorhersagen mit dem tatsächlichen visuellen Input hin (Kapitel 5). Die Ergebnisse sind mit interaktiven Modellen der Worterkennung vereinbar, nach welchen Bottom-up und Top-down Informationen gemeinsam frühe lexikalische Verarbeitungsstufen beeinflussen. Unter Berücksichtigung der Effekte von Frequenz, Vorhersagbarkeit und Präsentationsgeschwindigkeit wird ein Modell vorgeschlagen, das die vorliegenden Befunde zusammenführt (Kapitel 4).

Alerting signals often serve to reduce temporal uncertainty by predicting the time of stimulus onset. The resulting response time benefits have often been explained by facilitated translation of stimulus codes into response codes on the basis of established stimulus-response (S-R) links. In paradigms of masked S-R priming alerting signals also modulate response activation processes triggered by subliminally presented prime stimuli. In the present study we tested whether facilitation of visuo-motor translation processes due to alerting signals critically depends on established S-R links. Alerting signals resulted in significantly enhanced masked priming effects for masked prime stimuli that included and that did not include established S-R links (i.e., target vs. novel primes). Yet, the alerting-priming interaction was more pronounced for target than for novel primes. These results suggest that effects of alerting signals on masked priming are especially evident when S-R links between prime and target exist. At the same time, an alerting-priming interaction also for novel primes suggests that alerting signals also facilitate stimulus-response translation processes when masked prime stimuli provide action-trigger conditions in terms of programmed S-R links.

By conducting an explorative study it is tried to determine whether a sample of film enthusiasts can produce a similar result in judging for the 87th Academy Awards for movies in 2014 like the actual Academy members or not. An online survey has been created and the votes cast by the participants have been tabulated. It can be shown that the results of the simulated awards voting in the survey are quite similar to the actual Academy decision. However, additional adjustments and further studies are recommended to ensure the results.

Submitted by Johnny Rodrigues (johnnyrodrigues@ufcg.edu.br) on 2018-06-12T13:47:55Z No. of bitstreams: 1 JOSÉ GILDO DE ARAÚJO JÚNIOR - DISSERTAÇÃO PPGCC 2016..pdf: 44985365 bytes, checksum: 7cf3e353444964c334025b7c6f4f6df5 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-06-12T13:47:55Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 JOSÉ GILDO DE ARAÚJO JÚNIOR - DISSERTAÇÃO PPGCC 2016..pdf: 44985365 bytes, checksum: 7cf3e353444964c334025b7c6f4f6df5 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-12-13 / CNPq / Há algum tempo pesquisadores e analistas de mercado vêm apresentando indícios da previsibilidade de mercados acionários. Embora acredite-se que o mercado de ações seja imprevisível, análises de previsibilidade realizadas em bolsas da China, Turquia, Hong Kong, Itália, Teerã e EUA vêm mostrando o contrário. O fato é que a hipótese de eficiência de mercado foi planteada em 1970, e não se poderia prever as mudanças culturais e tecnológicas que impactaram o mundo, como o aumento da capacidade de processamento dos computadores, o desenvolvimento de técnicas de aprendizagem de máquina, a publicação de notícias online e a exposição em tempo real da opinião de investidores em redes sociais, por exemplo. A combinação destes elementos passaram a potencializar o lucro de investidores à medida que simplificaram o monitoramento e a gestão do risco, a compreensão do cenário econômico e até a realização de análises complexas sobre setores, índices e ações em poucos minutos. Este trabalho se propôs a lançar luz sobre relações e impactos que as notícias econômicas publicadas em jornais brasileiros, online, mantêm com o mercado acionário nacional em dois níveis de análise: índice Bovespa e setores. Inicialmente, foram coletadas notícias econômicas publicadas em jornais de alta circulação no Brasil entre 2000 e 2015, seus comentários e suas repercussões nas redes sociais Twitter, Facebook, Linkedln e GooglePlus. A análise de correlação entre o índice Bovespa e a quantidade de compartilhamento de notícias em redes sociais revelam uma correlação negativa de 48%. Além disso, por meio da análise de sentimento das notícias coletadas, verificou-se que a quantidade de notícias positivas publicadas é, em média, 4.5 vezes superior ao de negativas, e que, apesar disso, as notícias negativas são mais repercutidas nas redes sociais que as positivas. Para os setores, verificou-se que o setor mais previsível apenas por meio de notícias econômicas é o setor de Petróleo, Gás e Biocombustíveis enquanto o menos previsível é o setor Bens Industriais. Por fim, as variáveis extraídas das notícias foram utilizadas como base no desenvolvimento de modelos de predição tanto para o índice Bovespa quanto para os setores da BM&FBOVESPA. De forma geral, os resultados encontrados superaram estatisticamente baselines comumente utilizados em ~ 20%. / For some time researchers and market analysts have shown evidence of predictability of stock markets. Although many investors believe that the stock market is unpredictable, predictability analysis in China, Turkey, Hong Kong, Italy, Tehran and the US stock markets has shown the opposite situation. The Efficient-Market Hypothesis (EMH) was designed in 1970 and could not anticipate the cultural and technological changes that affected the world, such as the increased processing power of computers, the development of machine learning techniques, real time publication of news and opinions of investors in social media platforms, such as twitter and facebook, for example. The combination of these elements enabled investors to perform more complex analysis of sectors, índices and stocks in almost real time, thus increasing their understanding of the stock market dynamics and improving their likelihood of success. his study aimed to shed light on the relationships and impacts that economic news published in online Brazilian newspapers, have with the national stock market in two leveis of analysis: Bovespa Index and sectors. Initially, we collected economic news published in high-circulation newspapers in Brazil between 2000 and 2015, their comments and their repercussions on social medias like Twitter, Facebook, Linkedln and GooglePlus. The correlation analysis between the Bovespa index and the amount of news shared on social networks showed a negative correlation of 48%. Furthermore, using sentrment analysis it was found that the amount of positive news reported is in average of 4.5 times higher than the negative, and, nonetheless, the negative news are more rebound on the social media than positive news. For the sectors, it was found that the most predictable sector by economic news is the Oil, Gas and Biofuels while the less predictable is the Industrial Goods sector. Finally, the variables drawn from the news were used as as input for the definition of prediction models for both the Bovespa Index and for the sectors of BM& FBOVESPA. In general, the results overperformed baselines such as the random classifier in ~ 20%.

No description available.