Made available in DSpace on 2010-04-20T21:00:49Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 4 Claudio Silva Fernandes.pdf.jpg: 15531 bytes, checksum: 06624c6396692b27555a76bc097ad3c1 (MD5) Claudio Silva Fernandes.pdf.txt: 168107 bytes, checksum: b9af0f030138df1201e2fa9cb58af88d (MD5) Claudio Silva Fernandes.pdf: 1959114 bytes, checksum: 949b0ca856496444c59519b11fe20dea (MD5) license.txt: 4886 bytes, checksum: 42bde912d1e71b353a73ebd1e1e92eb2 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2009-02-03T00:00:00Z / The objective of this paper is to present a revision of the empirical literature of rational expectations and market efficiency of the foreign exchange market and to test this revision over the Brazilian foreign exchange market between 2002 and 2007 in three different forecast horizon, using (i) survey data of the Brazilian Central Bank to identify if predictable forward bias is due to the risk premium or the expectational errors, and (ii) the ordinary least square and vector autoregression. While in the short run, the market is efficient and irrational, in the long run, the forward in not related with the spot. In addition, we conclude that the heterogeneity of the market agents influence the foreign exchange variation in the short run, and the expectations are persistent after an shift in the regime. / O objetivo desse trabalho é apresentar revisão da literatura empírica sobre a racionalidade das expectativas e eficiência do mercado de câmbio e aplicar essa revisão sobre o mercado de câmbio brasileiro entre 2002 e 2007 em três horizontes distintos de tempo, utilizando-se (i) de dados da pesquisa Focus do Banco Central do Brasil para podermos identificar se o viés de predição do forward é devido ao prêmio de risco cambial ou a formação das expectativas e (ii) dos métodos dos mínimos quadrados ordinários e do vetor auto-regressivo. No curto prazo o mercado é eficiente e irracional, enquanto que, no longo prazo, o forward não está relacionado com o câmbio à vista. Além disso, constatamos que a heterogeneidade dos agentes nesse mercado influencia a variação cambial no curto prazo, e as expectativas possuem uma persistência após um choque estrutural.

[pt] Muitas empresas apresentam exposições, como dívidas emitidas em outras moedas, diferente de sua moeda funcional. As empresas podem se proteger contra a desvalorização de sua moeda funcional através da contratação de instrumentos financeiros para este fim. Os estudos realizados apresentam uma estratégia de tratamento a exposição de um grupo de moedas com um custo menor quando comparado a estratégias de tratamento de cada exposição de forma individual. A estratégia apresentada é a utilização de opção de uma cesta de moedas, embora a cesta possa ser de vários tipos, como cesta de índices e ações. O objetivo do trabalho é realizar um estudo da precificação de uma alternativa de proteção à exposição a um conjunto de moedas. Os resultados obtidos com a estratégia proposta são comparados com a alternativa de se realizar proteção com uma opção de compra simples, bem como é apresentado um estudo de evolução do prêmio da opção dada correlação entre as moedas que compõem a cesta de opções. Os resultados obtidos do modelo de precificação mostram que a opções para uma cesta de moedas são um instrumento adequado para tratamento de exposição à moedas, pois apresenta um custo menor quando comparado com o custo de opções de compra para cada moeda a que está exposta. / [en] Many companies have exposures, such as debts issued in other currencies that are not their functional currency. Companies can protect themselves against the devaluation of their functional currency by contracting financial instruments for this purpose. The studies carried out present a treatment strategy the exposure of a group of currencies with a lower cost when compared to treatment strategies of each exposure individually. The strategy presented is the use of a basket option of currencies, although the basket can be of several types, such as baskets option of indexes and basket option of stocks. The purpose is to carry out a study of the pricing of an alternative to protect exposure to a set of currencies. The results obtained with the proposed strategy are compared with the alternative of realizing protection with a call vanilla, as well as a study of the evolution of the premium of the option given correlation between the currencies that belong to the basket of options. The results obtained from the pricing model show that the options for a basket of currencies are an appropriate instrument for treatment of currency exposure because it presents a lower cost when compared to the cost of call options for each currency to which it is exposed.

The topic of this thesis is the evaluation of risk in enterprise. First section summarizes common knowledge related to investment process and states methods used for analysis of risk and investments efficiency. Second part evaluates economic efficiency and risk of a future investments in the particular enterprise. Projects are critical to the realization of performing organization's strategies. Each project contains some degree of risk and it is required to be aware of these risks and to develop the necessary responses to get the desired level of project success. Because projects' risks are multidimensional, they must be evaluated by using risk evaluation methods. The aim of this part is to provide an analytic tool to evaluate the project risks. At first the thesis analysis net present value and other investment criteria of the construction project without risk factors. Subsequently the projects' risks are are evaluated by using risk premium. To study of how projected performance varies along with changes in the key assumptions on which the projections are based is used the sensitivity analysis. The main sources for data was the enterprise environment.

[pt] Esta dissertação busca replicar, para o mercado brasileiro, a abordagem e as metodologias utilizadas por Asness, Frazzini e Perdersen (2015) na tentativa de verificar a existência de prêmio positivo entre os retornos de firmas pequenas e firmas grandes no mercado norte-americano. Adicionalmente, procura mensurar como o fator Qualidade entre outros, poderiam influenciar no resultado desse prêmio, otimizando-o ou não de acordo com o controle para tais variáveis. O trabalho se pauta no modelo clássico de precificação de Fama e French, tanto para definir o fator que representará o prêmio por tamanho como para a criação de diversos portfólios que resultam nos outros fatores a serem considerados nas regressões de cada estudo. / [en] This paper seeks to replicate, for the Brazilian market, the approach and methodologies used by Asness, Frazzini and Perdersen (2015) in an attempt to verify the existence of a positive premium among the returns of small firms and large firms in the North American market. In addition, it seeks to measure how the Quality factor, among others, could influence the results of this premium, optimizing it or not according to the control for such variables. The paper is based on the classic Fama and French pricing model, both to define the factor that will represent the size premium and creation of several portfolios that result in the other factors to be considered in the regressions of each study.

Submitted by Valter Unterberger Filho (valteruf@googlemail.com) on 2012-09-11T10:47:04Z No. of bitstreams: 1 DissertacaoValter.pdf: 817395 bytes, checksum: 02c005c4e86c0597f7184105b18ea0e0 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Suzinei Teles Garcia Garcia (suzinei.garcia@fgv.br) on 2012-09-11T14:02:06Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 DissertacaoValter.pdf: 817395 bytes, checksum: 02c005c4e86c0597f7184105b18ea0e0 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2012-09-11T14:46:24Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 DissertacaoValter.pdf: 817395 bytes, checksum: 02c005c4e86c0597f7184105b18ea0e0 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2012-08-14 / The corporate debt market in emerging economies has shown strong growth in recent years. Excess of liquidity after the global financial crisis, the banks’ need for deleveraging and the crisis in developed countries are some of the reasons that contributed to the increased importance of this source of funding by the companies. The objective of this study is to verify the new issue premium on EM corporate bonds, their causes, and its performance before and after the 2008 financial crisis. To achieve these objectives, an empirical study was conducted using the new issues since 2000 for Mexico, Brazil, Russia and South Korea. It was verified that, for issuances with similar characteristics, high grade bonds pay smaller premium than high yielders. The new issue’s size and tenor have positive correlation with the premium, while variables related to asymmetric information between investors and companies point to the same direction, although the coefficients are not statistically significant. Furthermore, it is shown that the new issue premium disappears after about 5 trading days, after that period the bonds do not outperform the CEMBI, an EM corporate bond index. In the end, it is presented a comparison of the new issue premium for two different periods: pre and post 2008 financial crisis. No significant premium reduction is found, but an increase in the size and tenor of issuances, indicating that a possible reduction of asymmetric information between companies and investors in recent years. / O mercado de dívida corporativa dos países emergentes tem apresentado forte crescimento nos últimos anos. Excesso de liquidez pós-crise mundial, necessidade de desalavancagem dos bancos e crise nos países desenvolvidos são alguns dos motivos que contribuíram para o aumento da importância dessa fonte de financiamento das empresas. O objetivo deste trabalho é verificar a existência de prêmio de emissão em títulos de dívida corporativa denominada em dólares, suas principais causas, e o seu desempenho antes e depois da crise financeira de 2008. Para tal, foi feito um estudo empírico das emissões realizadas desde o ano 2000 para México, Brasil, Rússia e Coreia do Sul. Verifica-se que, para emissões com características semelhantes, as de grau especulativo pagam prêmio superior às de grau de investimento. Características como o tamanho e prazo têm relação positiva com o prêmio de emissão, enquanto que variáveis relacionadas à assimetria de informação entre investidores e empresas apontam para redução do mesmo, embora não de forma significativa. Mostra-se ainda que o prêmio de emissão desaparece após aproximadamente 5 dias úteis de negociação, período a partir do qual os bonds não têm desempenho superior a um índice de mercado. Por fim, faz-se uma comparação do prêmio de emissão nos períodos pré e pós-crise mundial, onde não se verifica redução significativa de prêmio de emissão, e sim um aumento no tamanho e prazo das emissões, indicando uma possível redução de assimetria de informação entre empresas e investidores nos últimos anos.

Submitted by Eduardo Gomes (esgomes@gmail.com) on 2013-01-15T17:32:40Z No. of bitstreams: 1 FGV MFEE Eduardo Gomes.pdf: 846321 bytes, checksum: 06db422e930bdce11432937d05e9e9c3 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Vitor Souza (vitor.souza@fgv.br) on 2013-01-15T19:37:25Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 FGV MFEE Eduardo Gomes.pdf: 846321 bytes, checksum: 06db422e930bdce11432937d05e9e9c3 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2013-02-04T17:28:56Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 FGV MFEE Eduardo Gomes.pdf: 846321 bytes, checksum: 06db422e930bdce11432937d05e9e9c3 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2012-05-31 / This study aims to investigate the existence of a liquidity premium in Brazilian stocks. By building portfolios sorted by various measures of liquidity is possible to test the differential expected return and risk incurred. The expected return of the portfolio built with less liquid stocks is significantly higher than the return of the portfolio built with the most liquids stocks. Conventional measures of risk (market and Fama-French factors) do not explain this excess of return. We tested different liquidity measures and the methodology proposed by Hwang and Lu (2007) was the one that the effect was more considerable. Taken together, the evidences show the presence of a liquidity premium in Brazil. / Esse trabalho tem como objetivo investigar a existência de um prêmio de liquidez nas ações brasileiras. Através da construção de portfólios classificados por diferentes medidas de liquidez é possível testar o diferencial esperado de retorno e o risco incorrido. O retorno esperado do portfólio construído com ações menos líquidas é significantemente superior ao retorno do portfólio construído com as mais líquidas e as medidas convencionais de risco (mercado e fatores Fama-French) não explicam este excesso de retorno. Foram testadas diferentes medidas de liquidez sendo a metodologia proposta por Hwang e Lu (2007) aquela onde o efeito é mais considerável. Em conjunto, as evidências mostram a existência de um prêmio de liquidez no Brasil.

Syfte: Syftet med denna studie är att utreda om det finns ett lämpligare investeringsalternativ än de nuvarande investeringsalternativ som finns i det svenska premiepensionssystemet. För att genomföra detta kommer studien att framställa en portfölj av ett svenskt och ett internationellt investmentbolag med en god balans mellan risk och avkastning för en jämförelse av dagens premiepensionssystem. Metod: Studien utgår från historisk data under tio års tid som vidare analyseras Genom bland annat Pearson R modellen. Urvalet består av investmentbolag på den nordiska- samt den amerikanska marknaden. Utöver den kvantitativa studien kommer en intervju att genomföras med en respondent som är kunnig inom området om sparande och pensionsinvesteringar. Avslutningsvis presenteras studiens trovärdighet och metodkritik. Teoretiskt perspektiv: Den teoretiska referensramen utgörs av tidigare teorier som är relevanta för att framställa den bäst lämpade portföljen. Markowitz moderna portföljteori ligger till grund och kompletteras av ytterligare väsentliga mått som exempelvis Sharpekvoten. Vidare tillämpas en utvecklad portföljteori av Grubel & Solnik för ett internationellt perspektiv. Empiri: Empirin/Resultatet består av en presentation av den bearbetade datan som ligger till grund för den analys som genomförs. Slutsats: Studien framställer en portfölj i form av Bure Equity AB och Berkshire Hathaway. I jämförelse med premiepensionens redan befintliga alternativ uppvisar studiens portfölj en avsevärt högre nominell avkastning. Konstellationen av Bure Equity AB och Berkshire Hathaway uppvisar en nominell avkastning på 19,75 % i relation till premiepensionens aktiva sparare som uppvisar en nominell avkastning på 7 %. Den passiva spararen som tilldelas AP7 Såfa uppvisar en nominell avkastning på 11 %. / Purpose: The purpose of this study is evaluate if there is another investment opportunity than the current investment opportunities in the Swedish pension system. In order to do this the study will produce a portfolio of a Swedishand an international investment company with a good balance between risk and return for a comparison of today’s premium pension scheme. Methodology: The study is based on historical data for ten years which further is analyzed through the Pearson R model. The selection consists of investment companies in the Nordic- and the American market. Along with the quantitative study an interview will be made with a representative well familiar with savings and pension investments. Finally the credibility of the study and methodology criticism is presented. Theoretical Framework: The theoretical frame of reference consists of previous theories that are relevant to produce the best-suited portfolio. Markowitz modern portfolio theory is the main theory which is supplemented by additional essential measures as the Sharpe ratio. Furthermore, a developed portfolio theory by Grubel & Solnik is applied to get an international perspective. Result: The result consists of a presentation of the processed data as underlies the analysis being carried out. Conclusions: The study produces a portfolio in the form of Bure Equity AB and Berkshire Hathaway. In comparison with the pre-existing pension options the study’s portfolio shows a significantly higher nominal return. The constellation of Bure Equity AB and Berkshire Hathaway exhibits a nominal return of 19,75 % in relation to the active saver in the premium pension with a nominal return of 7 %. The passive saver assigned to AP7 Safa exhibits a nominal return of 11 %.

Syfte: Syftet med denna studie är att utreda om det finns ett lämpligare investeringsalternativ än de nuvarande investeringsalternativ som finns i det svenska premiepensionssystemet. För att genomföra detta kommer studien att framställa en portfölj av ett svenskt och ett internationellt investmentbolag med en god balans mellan risk och avkastning för en jämförelse av dagens premiepensionssystem. Metod: Studien utgår från historisk data under tio års tid som vidare analyseras genom bland annat Pearson R modellen. Urvalet består av investmentbolag på den nordiska- samt den amerikanska marknaden. Utöver den kvantitativa studien kommer en intervju att genomföras med en respondent som är kunnig inom området om sparande och pensionsinvesteringar. Avslutningsvis presenteras studiens trovärdighet och metodkritik. Teoretiskt perspektiv: Den teoretiska referensramen utgörs av tidigare teorier som är relevanta för att framställa den bäst lämpade portföljen. Markowitz moderna portföljteori ligger till grund och kompletteras av ytterligare väsentliga mått som exempelvis Sharpekvoten. Vidare tillämpas en utvecklad portföljteori av Grubel & Solnik för ett internationellt perspektiv. Empiri: Empirin/Resultatet består av en presentation av den bearbetade datan som ligger till grund för den analys som genomförs. Slutsats: Studien framställer en portfölj i form av Bure Equity AB och Berkshire Hathaway. I jämförelse med premiepensionens redan befintliga alternativ uppvisar studiens portfölj en avsevärt högre nominell avkastning. Konstellationen av Bure Equity AB och Berkshire Hathaway uppvisar en nominell avkastning på 19,75 % i relation till premiepensionens aktiva sparare som uppvisar en nominell avkastning på 7 %. Den passiva spararen som tilldelas AP7 Såfa uppvisar en nominell avkastning på 11 %. / Purpose: The purpose of this study is evaluate if there is another investment opportunity than the current investment opportunities in the Swedish pension system. In order to do this the study will produce a portfolio of a Swedishand an international investment company with a good balance between risk and return for a comparison of today’s premium pension scheme. Methodology: The study is based on historical data for ten years which further is analyzed through the Pearson R model. The selection consists of investment companies in the Nordic- and the American market. Along with the quantitative study an interview will be made with a representative well familiar with savings and pension investments. Finally the credibility of the study and methodology criticism is presented. Theoretical Framework: The theoretical frame of reference consists of previous theories that are relevant to produce the best-suited portfolio. Markowitz modern portfolio theory is the main theory which is supplemented by additional essential measures as the Sharpe ratio. Furthermore, a developed portfolio theory by Grubel & Solnik is applied to get an international perspective. Result: The result consists of a presentation of the processed data as underlies the analysis being carried out. Conclusions: The study produces a portfolio in the form of Bure Equity AB and Berkshire Hathaway. In comparison with the pre-existing pension options the study’s portfolio shows a significantly higher nominal return. The constellation of Bure Equity AB and Berkshire Hathaway exhibits a nominal return of 19,75 % in relation to the active saver in the premium pension with a nominal return of 7 %. The passive saver assigned to AP7 Safa exhibits a nominal return of 11 %.

為改善綠建築與售價之間的定錨效應，本研究以台灣EEWH綠建築評估系統為基礎，建構AHP分析層級程序法之問卷架構，共分為目標、面向、指標以及評估項目四大階層。透過第一階段以及第二階段問卷調查與分析，本研究初步得到不動產估價師平均願提高9.77%之綠建築願付價格，且住宅類綠建築中，價格影響權重較高者為室內環境、節能設備以及空調系統指標。 取得各評估項目的價格影響權重後，以相關分析、價格影響權重分析為基礎，篩選應謹慎考量其價格的評估項目，再輔以盒狀圖分析，將價格影響權重細分為若干加權等級，進而建立更加完善的住宅類綠建築估價應用總表，並提供不動產估價師於實務中使用。 最終，運用實證分析，本研究發現綠建築等級或總得分與溢價幅度具有中度以上的解釋力，當綠建築等級或總得分越高時，其溢價幅度亦隨之提高，然而，當綠建築施作至一定程度後，其上升的溢價幅度將有限；此外，以銀級為例時，同等級內的綠建築總得分與溢價幅度未具顯著解釋力，意旨同等級案例之總得分越高時，並無法解釋其溢價幅度將越大。本研究建議，當衡量綠建築之價格時，應依循本研究提供的應用總表，評估各綠建築的實質溢價情況，以提高綠建築案例於估價時的準確性。 / In order to improve the anchoring effect between green building and selling price, this study based on the EEWH Green Building Assessment System in Taiwan, and constructed the questionnaire structure of AHP analysis hierarchy process which classified into four dimensions: Target, Orientation, Index and Element. Through the first stage and the second stage of the questionnaire survey, the higher weight of the price impact are the indexes of indoor environment, energy-saving equipment and air conditioning system. The average of willing to pay on the green buildings from the appraisals is around 9.77%. Based on the correlation analysis, the weight of price impact analysis and the box analysis, there are some elements which need to be subdivided into several weighting scale. After that, this study would establish a much more complete table called “the application table of residential green buildings.” It will provide for appraisers to use in practice as well. Finally, using the empirical analysis, this study found that there are moderate positive correlation between the levels or the total scores of green buildings and the price premium, which means the higher the green building level or the total score is, the greater the price premium is. However, when the green building level reach a certain extent, the increase on the prie premium will be limited. In addition, take the silver level for example. The total score of green buildings in the same level dose not have significant correlation with its price premium, which means the higher scores of green buildings in the same level can not explain the price premium will be greater. Therefore, this study suggests that green buildings should follow the application table provided in this study to measure the real premiums of the green buildings in order to improve the accuracy of the green building price at the time of appraisal.

Exchange rate economics has achieved substantial development in the past few decades. Despite extensive research, a large number of unresolved problems remain in the exchange rate debate. This dissertation studied three puzzling issues aiming to improve our understanding of exchange rate behavior. Chapter Two used advanced econometric techniques to model and forecast exchange rate dynamics. Chapter Three and Chapter Four studied issues related to exchange rates using the theory of New Open Economy Macroeconomics. Chapter Two empirically examined the short-run forecastability of nominal exchange rates. It analyzed important empirical regularities in daily exchange rates. Through a series of hypothesis tests, a best-fitting fractionally integrated GARCH model with skewed student-t error distribution was identified. The forecasting performance of the model was compared with that of a random walk model. Results supported the contention that nominal exchange rates seem to be unpredictable over the short run in the sense that the best-fitting model cannot beat the random walk model in forecasting exchange rate movements. Chapter Three assessed the ability of dynamic general-equilibrium sticky-price monetary models to generate volatile foreign exchange risk premia. It developed a tractable two-country model where agents face a cash-in-advance constraint and set prices to the local market; the exogenous money supply process exhibits time-varying volatility. The model yielded approximate closed form solutions for risk premia and real exchange rates. Numerical results provided quantitative evidence that volatile risk premia can endogenously arise in a new open economy macroeconomic model. Thus, the model had potential to rationalize the Uncovered Interest Parity Puzzle. Chapter Four sought to resolve the consumption-real exchange rate anomaly, which refers to the inability of most international macro models to generate negative cross-correlations between real exchange rates and relative consumption across two countries as observed in the data. While maintaining the assumption of complete asset markets, this chapter introduced endogenously segmented asset markets into a dynamic sticky-price monetary model. Simulation results showed that such a model could replicate the stylized fact that real exchange rates tend to move in an opposite direction with respect to relative consumption.