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The costs related to events of losses within non-life insurance are stochastic and a prerequisite of running a successful insurance business is to predict risks and future costs. From both a business- and regulatory perspective, it is of high interest to have a genuine understanding of the precision and the sensitivity of the estimated costs and future risks. This thesis aims to provide an alternative procedure of how to estimate the costs related to the future and, above all, the variance, in the case of dealing with inhomogeneous and decreasing risk. The procedure is based on a separate modeling of the claim frequency and the claim severity, that later can be combined to yield a total cost distribution for a determined time period. The claim severities are modeled based on a parametric and a non-parametric approach and the claim frequencies are modeled with the resampling method bootstrap and by the use of scenarios. The thesis is made in collaboration with the insurance company, Anticimex Insurance, who has contributed with the data as well as expert knowledge related to the actuarial field. The results of the thesis show that the procedure is successful for evaluating estimated total costs distributions and their first and second moments, even in the case of inhomogeneous and decreasing risk. / Kostnader som uppkommer på grund av skador inom skadeförsäkring är stokasiska och en förusättning för att kunna bedriva ett framgångsrikt försäkringsbolag är att kunna prediktera risk och framtida kostnader. Utifrån ett såväl försäkrings- som reglatoriskt perspektiv är det av stor vikt att ha en gedigen förståelse av både precisionen och känsligheten i de skattade estimaten. Denna uppsats syftar till att ta fram ett alternativt tillvägagångssätt till hur kostnader relaterade till framtiden ska predikteras, med fokus på att utvärdera variationen i estimaten, vid fallet av en inhomogen och avtagande risk. Tillvägagångssättet bygger på en uppdelning mellan antalet skador och kostnaden för skador, vilka modelleras separat för att sedan kombineras och ge en totalkostnadsfördelning för den avsedda tidsperioden. De historiska kostnaderna modelleras utifrån ett parametriskt- och ett ickeparametriskt tillvägagångssätt. Skadefrekvensen modelleras med hjälp av bland annat samplingsmetoden bootstrap samt genom användandet av scenarier. Uppsatsen görs i samarbete med skadeförsäkringsbolaget, Anticimex Försäkringar, vilka har bidragit med data och expertkunskap inom det aktuariella området. Arbetets resultat visar att det föreslagna tillvägagångssättet är en framgångsrik strategi för att utvärdera de första två momenten av de predikterade totalkostnadsfördelningarna, även vid fallet av en inhomogen och avtagande risk.

[pt] O objetivo deste trabalho é analisar a eficiência na precificação de três dos Exchange-Traded Funds brasileiros mais líquidos (BOVA11, SMAL11 e PIBB11), buscando determinar se eles seguem com bastante proximidade os índices que procuram replicar, comparando com o que é observado na literatura internacional no que diz respeito ao desempenho de ETFs estrangeiros. Inicialmente verificou-se a estratégia de replicação adotada, bem como a qualidade dessa replicação a partir da avaliação do tracking error observado nesses fundos. Em seguida buscou-se avaliar se há algum desvio na precificação entre o preço de negociação e o valor patrimonial líquido (NAV) do respectivo ETF, ou seja, se o ativo está sendo negociado, na média, com prêmio ou desconto. Por fim, foi analisada a persistência dos prêmios ou descontos encontrados, isto é, quanto tempo leva até o preço de mercado e o NAV voltarem ao equilíbrio. Os resultados encontrados mostram que os fundos BOVA11 e PIBB11 adotam uma estratégia de full replication, enquanto o SMAL11 apresenta uma estratégia de otimização. O tracking error encontrado está em linha com aqueles observados em ETFs europeus e os três fundos estudados são negociados, na média, com desconto. Finalmente, tanto BOVA11 e PIBB11 levam sete dias para voltarem ao equilíbrio, bastante acima da média observada na literatura internacional, enquanto o SMAL11 leva apenas dois dias para isso, o que é inesperado já que é o fundo menos líquido dentre os analisados. Os resultados indicam que as ferramentas de arbitragem não estão sendo utilizadas de maneira eficiente. / [en] The objective of this study is to analyze the pricing efficiency of three of the most liquid brazilian Exchange-Traded Funds (BOVA11, SMAL11 and PIBB11) and determine if they follow closely the indexes they try to replicate, comparing with the international literature regarding the foreign ETFs performance. Firstly, this study verifies which strategy is adopted by each fund, as well as the quality of this replication by evaluating the tracking error observed in these funds. Then it is analyzed if there is any deviation between the trading price and the net asset value (NAV) of the respective ETF, that is, if the security is being traded, on average, with a premium or discount. Finally, it is evaluated the persistence of those premiums and discounts found, that is, how much time it takes until the trading price and the NAV go back to equilibrium. The results showed that both BOVA11 and PIBB11 adopt a full replication strategy, while SMAL11 presents an optimization strategy. The tracking error found is in line with those observed in European ETFs and the three funds are traded, on average, with a discount. Finally, both BOVA11 and PIBB11 take seven days to go back to equilibrium, while SMAL11 only takes two days, an unexpected result as this is the least liquid fund of the three that are part of this study. Therefore, the arbitrage tools are not being used efficiently.

The purpose of this study is to investigate whether or not green certificates have an impact on income-generating commercial buildings' rent compared to similar non-certified commercial buildings. In addition, evaluate if there exists a variation in the rent premium between the different certifications and if the rental premium increases with the distance from city center. To answer the research questions a quantitative approach with hedonic pricing regressions has been conducted. For the purpose of this study, three types of hedonic regressions models have been estimated. To capture the effect of green certificates, the models have controlled for structural, locational and, quality attributes of the buildings. The first model examinedwhether certified office buildings archive a rent premium compared to non-certified buildings. The second model separated the label into indicator variables to capture the effect of each individual label. Lastly, the third model analyzed the progressive effect of the interaction between distance and certification. This study uses a dataset of rent observations for office buildings from four major Swedish cities – Stockholm, Gothenburg, Malmö and Uppsala – in order to analyze the rent premium of green certifications. The result of this study indicates that there exists a premium of 4,9 to 5,4 percent for certified buildings. When investigating each certification label the results indicate a rental premium of 10 percent forBREEAM, 5,1 percent for LEED, and 4,4 percent for Miljöbyggnad. Lastly, the finding suggests an incremental premium for certified buildings located farther away from the city center. This study contributes to the rising literature on the topic of green office buildings, as it is the first study to investigate the rental impact of green certification on the Swedish market. / Syftet med denna studie är att undersöka om miljöcertifieringar har en hyrespåverkan på kontorsbyggnader, i jämförelse med liknande icke-certifierade kontorsbyggnader. Vidare,undersöka om hyrespremien skiljer sig mellan de olika miljöcertifieringarna samt om hyrespremien ökar med avståndet från citykärnan. För att kunna besvara forskningsfrågorna har regressionsanalyser genomförts, bestående av tre olika modeller. Modellerna kontrollerar för strukturella, lägesspecifika och kvalitativa attribut. Den första modellen undersöker huruvida certifierade byggnader erhåller en högre hyra i jämförelse med icke-certifierade byggnader. Den andra modellen separerar de olika typerna av miljöcertifieringar för att undersöka vilken certifiering som bidrar med högst hyrespremie. Slutligen, den tredje modellen analyserar den stegvisa effekten av interaktionen mellan avstånd och certifiering. Datasetet som studien baseras på består av hyreskontrakt från de fyra största städerna iSverige – Stockholm, Göteborg, Malmö och Uppsala. Resultaten påvisar att det existerar en hyrespremie för certifierade byggnader på 4,9 till 5,4 procent. Premien skiljer sig beroende på vilken certifiering byggnader har, resultaten påvisar en hyrespremie på 10 procent för BREEAM, 5,1 procent för LEED och 4,4 procent för Miljöbyggnad. Resultaten visar även att det finns en stegvis hyrespremie för certifierade byggnader som är belägna längre bort från stadens centrum. Avslutningsvis, denna studie bidrar till den befintliga litteraturen gällande gröna byggnader, då det är den första studien i Sverige som undersöker förhållandet mellan hyresnivå och miljöcertifieringar.

In traditional investment decision making, one tool commonly used is the mean variance model, also known as an expected-value variance (EV) model, which evaluates the anticipated payout of different assets with respect to uncertainty where portfolios with higher risk demand higher expected returns from an individual. This thesis adapts this framework to a cost setting where decision makers are evaluating alternative physical assets that carry lifetime cost uncertainty for maintenance. Specifically, this paper examines homeowner choices for their home plumbing systems in the event of a pinhole leak, a tiny pin-sized hole that forms in copper, drinking-water pipes. These leaks can cause substantial damage and cost homeowners thousands of dollars in repairs. Since pinhole leaks are not related to the age of pipe material, a homeowner is subject to the risk of additional costs if a pinhole leak occurs again despite their repair efforts. The EV cost model in this paper defines two discrete choices for the homeowner in the event of a leak; to apply a simple repair at lower cost and higher future cost uncertainty, or to replace their plumbing with new pipe material, usually made of plastic, at a higher upfront cost but lower likelihood of future expenses. The risk preference of homeowners are demonstrated by their repair strategy selection, as well as the level of cost they incur to reduce uncertainty. Risk neutral individuals will select the repair strategy with the lowest lifetime expected cost and high variance, while risk averse homeowners will prefer to replace their plumbing with higher cost but lower variance. Risk averse individuals are also exposed to indirect costs, which is an additional unobserved cost in the form of a risk premium the homeowner is willing to pay to remove all uncertainty of future pinhole leak expense. Expected costs and variances are also higher for regions in the U.S. that experience elevated leak incident rates, known as hotspots. Using this mean variance cost framework, indirect cost can be quantified for homeowners in hotspot regions and compared to the rest of the U.S. to evaluate the magnitude of pinhole leak risk. The EV cost model estimates risk premiums on pinhole leaks to be $442 for homeowners in hotspots and $305 for those in the rest of the U.S. Finally, this paper examines the impact of pinhole leak cost uncertainty on the U.S. economy. Of an estimated $692 million in annual pinhole leak costs to homeowners, this study estimates a lower bound cost of $54 million per year (7.8% of estimated national annual cost) in risk premium that homeowners would be willing to pay to avoid pinhole leak cost uncertainty. Information in this study on the role of risk in home plumbing decisions and indirect costs would be helpful to policymakers and water utility managers as they deal with infrastructure management decisions. Furthermore, the EV cost methodology established in this paper demonstrates an effective use of mean variance modeling under cost uncertainty. / Master of Science / This paper examines homeowner choices for their home plumbing systems in the event of a pinhole leak, a tiny pin-sized hole that forms in copper, drinking-water pipes. These leaks can cause substantial damage and cost homeowners thousands of dollars in repairs. Since pinhole leaks are not related to the age of pipe material, a homeowner is subject to the risk of additional costs if a pinhole leak occurs again despite their repair efforts. This paper also examined costs in regions of the U.S. that experience elevated leak incident rates, known as hotspots. There were two primary choices assessed in this study for homeowners facing pinhole leaks: to either apply a simple repair today at lower cost but take on a higher chance of more pinhole leaks; or to replace their plumbing with new pipe material, usually made of plastic, at a higher overall cost but lower risk of another leak. Using a cost focused investment analysis, it was estimated that homeowners selecting the ‘safer’ replacement strategy would be willing to pay a minimum of $305 in additional cost if able to eliminate all possibility of another leak compared to those who opted for the more ‘riskier’ repair choice. Additionally, homeowners who live in hotspot regions who selected the replacement strategy were estimated to be willing to pay a minimum of $442 in additional cost to avoid pinhole leaks. At a national level, these pinhole leak-avoiding premiums equate to $54 million, about 7.8% of the estimated $692 million in costs spent on fixing pinhole leaks by U.S. homeowners each year. Information in this study on homeowner preferences and pinhole leak would be helpful to policymakers and water utility managers as they deal with infrastructure management decisions.

I denna studie har fenomenet miljöcertifiering och dess inverkan på transaktionspriser undersökts. Under det senaste decenniet har intresset och efterfrågan på hållbarhet kraftigt ökat. Tillsammans med krav från Europeiska Unionen har investerare, fastighetsägare och hyresgästers efterfrågan på hållbara fastigheter ökat. För att skapa incitament förhållbarhetsinvesteringar i fastighetsbranschen krävs det att arbetet är ekonomiskt gynnsamt och att företag kan räkna hem sina investeringar. Studien undersöker om miljöcertifierade fastigheter historiskt sätt genererat en värdepremie vid transaktionstillfällen. Syftet medstudien är att identifiera om miljöcertifieringsstämpeln medför en ekonomisk värdepremie samt identifiera hur miljöcertifieringens utveckling ser ut i ljuset av EU-taxonomin. Genomregressionsanalyser analyseras olika attributs inverkan på priset med syfte att kunna isoleramiljöcertifieringen och därigenom analysera hur miljöcertifieringen påverkar priset. Därutöver har en kompletterande kvalitativ intervjustudie utförts för att underbygga resultaten iden kvalitativa analysen. Studiens resultat visar att det finns tendenser till att miljöcertifierade fastigheter betingar högre priser än icke-certifierade fastigheter. Däremot kan studien inte med signifikans bevisa att det är just miljöcertifieringsstämpeln som ensamt bidrar till de högre prisnivåerna. Studiens resultat pekar på att EU-taxonomin kommer förändrafastighetsmarknadens dynamik på ett sätt som fortfarande inte är säkerställt samtidigt som tunga investerare lagt stora resurser på att miljöcertifiera sina bestånd. Då experter utrycker sig försiktigt och delvis har olika utgångspunkter är miljöcertifieringens framtid i ljuset av EU-taxonomin oviss. Utvecklingen av branschens affärslandskap kommer att till stor delpåverkas av EU-taxonomin och det är således viktigt att investerare, fastighetsägare och marknadsanalytiker följer utvecklingen noggrant. Dessutom bör branschorganisationer och forskare fortsatt engagerar sig i hållbarhetsfrågor för att främja en mer miljömässig, social men också ekonomiskt hållbar framtid inom fastighetsbranschen. / The purpose of this study is to investigate the economic advantages of eco-labeling in the real estate market. By employing a quantitative methodology, our goal is to identify if there is a financial key performance indicator for environmental certifications within the Swedish market. In the past decade, the demand for and interest in sustainability have increased. Along with stringent regulations from the European Union, the demand of sustainable properties have risen. To create incentives for sustainability efforts, the work must be economically beneficial. Companies need to justify their sustainable investments and therefore this study examines whether environmentally certified propertied have historically generated a higher transaction price compared to properties without eco-labeling. To answer our research questions an eclectic method was applied. A quantitative data analysis was combined with a qualitative interview study to deeply investigate how and if ecolabeling brings an economic value premium and to identify the development of certifications in the light of the EU-taxonomy. Through regression analysis we analyze the impact of various attributes on the price with the aim of isolating the environmental certification and thus analyzing how the eco-labeling is affecting the price. The qualitative study works as a complement to the quantitative analysis to support the results and put it into a context. The study concludes that there are tendencies for environmental certified properties to command higher prices than not certified properties. However, the results cannot significantly prove that it is the environmental labeling alone that contributes to higher price levels. The dynamics of the real estate market will change due the EU-taxonomy in a way that’s still uncertain. As experts express caution and have partly different perspectives, the future of environmental labeling in the light of EU-taxonomy remains uncertain. The development of the business landscape will be influenced by the EU-taxonomy, making it important for investors, property-owners and market analysts to closely follow its development. Moreover, industry organization and research should continue to engage in sustainability issues to promote a more environmentally, socially and economically sustainable future within the real estate industry.

Under det senaste decenniet har antalet fastighetsbolag som noterats på den svenska marknaden ökat markant, och idag är var tionde bolag på börsen ett fastighetsbolag. Denna ökning speglar ett uppsving för fastighetsinvesteringar, som medfört ett ökat inflöde av likviditet i sektorn. Ett inflöde som i sin tur har drivits av ett historiskt lågränteläge, vilket resulterat i att institutionella investerare ökat sin allokering till fastighetssektorn. Fastighetsbolag har generellt sett handlats till substansrabatt över tid, vilket innebär att deras marknadspris är lägre än deras underliggande tillgångar, men på senare tid har förekomsten av substanspremier ökat. Vilket istället innebär att marknadspriset är högre än deras underliggande tillgångar.  Denna studie syftar till att förklara variationen i substansrabatten över studieperioden genom att använda två typer av variabler, bolagsspecifika och makroekonomiska, samt undersöka förekomsten  av diskrepanser mellan delsektorerna bland de noterade fastighetsbolagen. Analysen gjordes med hjälp av paneldataregressioner, där de undersökta bolagen, under en 20-årsperiod, analyserades för tids- och tvärsnittsvariation. Resultatet visar att de undersökta variablerna kan förklara 14% av substansrabattens totala variation under undersökningsperioden. Resultatet visar även förekomsten av sektorspecifika skillnader, där fastighetsbolag verksamma inom industri och logistik, över tid, handlats till substanspremie till skillnad från de övriga undersökta sektorerna. / The number of real estate companies in Sweden has increased significantly over the last decade, and today one in ten listed companies is a property company. This increase reflects a rise in property investment, which has led to an increase in the inflow of liquidity into the sector. This inflow, has, in turn, been fuelled by historically low interest rates, which has encouraged institutional investors to increase their allocations to the real estate sector. While real estate companies have generally traded at a discount to NAV, meaning that their market capitalization is lower than their underlying assets, the prevalence of NAV premiums has increased. This means that their market price is higher than that of their underlying assets.  The aim of this study is to explain the variation in the discount to NAV over the study period using two types of variables, company-specific and macroeconomic variables, and to investigate whether or not sub-sectoral differences among listed real estate companies exist. The analysis was carried out using panel data regressions, where the studied companies were analyzed for time and cross-sectional variation. The results show that the variables examined can explain 14% of the total variation in the NAV discount over the sample period. In addition, the result also proves the existence of sub-sector-specific differences in NAV discount, with real estate companies focused on industry and logistics properties traded at NAV premium in comparison to the rest of the sub-sectors.

Exploring takeover dynamics, this dissertation uncovers CEO influence in deal negotiations, revealing a quad-ratic relationship between target CEO age and offer success. It examines Fairness Opinions' role in corporate control, emphasizing their impact on management recommendations and takeover success, particularly with independent assessors. The study outlines how signaling in corporate transactions can be both beneficial and potentially manipulative, depending on the alignment of incentives and the availability of information.