IFRS 的準則，對於未來想國際化的國內保險公司及面對國際投資人，是使用相同一套會計準則，不需再調整財報，有助提升國際競爭力及國際形象，若海外發行有價證券也不需再重編財報，可節省籌資成本。依目前國際發展情勢，IFRS 4 已廣泛為全球保險市場之採用準則，直接採用(adoption)IFRS 4 亦成為國際保險市場之趨勢，我國亦於2011 年1 月1 日公佈IFRS 4 第一階段生效，期與世界接軌，IFRS 4 未來對我國保險業將會有更重大之影響。為未雨綢繆，遂引起本文對此議題研究之動機。壽險業為長年期保險合約，須採用要素衡量法評估。為符合IFRS 4 第二階段規定之要素衡量法及保費分配法之評估，採個案產險公司為研究對象，祈予在IFRS 4 第二階段實施前，台灣產險業能提早做準備，並以充足時間瞭解並完善規劃準備執行配合，以符合未來主管機關之相關規定。 本論文以個案公司為例，評估國際財務報導準則第四號對保險公司精算規範與目前保險局規範保險公司相關精算試算之差異，特選用一般自用汽車財產損失險及傷害險採用保費分配法，工程險採用要素衡量法試算，並分析差異之內容，以了解個案公司未來因IFRS4 實施對該公司財務之影響。 以目前資料推估實施當年採用保費分配法會對盈餘報導較為有利，採用要素衡量法當年度會有對盈餘報導不利的衝擊，整體而言，對個案公司未來營運應無重大影響。 / The principles of IFRS ,which is using the same set of accounting standards, is conducive to enhance the international competitiveness and image for domestic insurance companies who scheme to internationalization and contact with international investors. In addition, companies can also saving the cost of issuance of foreign securities since they do not need to restate the financial statements. Taiwan also announced the IFRS 4 phase I be effective in January 1, 2011, hoping to connect with the world. In the future, IFRS 4 will have a more significant influence on Taiwan's Insurance Industry. In order to thinking ahead, which bring in my motivation to researching on this topic. Life insurance industry is major in long term insurance contracts, has to use the Building Block Approach. To comply the IFRS 4 Phase II which using the Building Block Approach and Premium Allocation Approach, I adopt the case of property Insurance as the research objectives. In order to fit with the relevant provisions of the competent authority in the future, Expecting Taiwan’s property Insurance can prepare in advance, well understanding and scheduling, before the implement of IFRS 4 phase II. In this paper, which use the property insurance case, evaluation the actuarial valuation difference of IFRS 4 and relevant norms of Insurance Bureau. I use Premium Allocation Approach to value the usually own car property damage insurance and casualty Insurance, and use Building Block Approach to evaluate Engineering Insurance. Through analysis of the content, to understanding the influence of IFRS 4 for the study company in the future. Based on the current data, adopting Building Block Approach is beneficial for the study company. Comparatively, Premium Allocation Approach is disadvantage for the study company. In conclusion, the implement of IFRS 4 should have no significant influence to the study company in the future.

Abstract In this paper, we examine the relation among different information asymmetry measures in Taiwan Stock Exchange and exploit the ability of the microstructure measures to measure asymmetric information. We also investigate the role of information asymmetry measures in affecting stock returns. With a random sample of 180 firms, we find that the market microstructure measure is significantly correlated with most of the corporate finance measures that should shed lights on the level of information asymmetry in advance. We also find that the analysts’ forecast measures have no relation with the microstructure measure. One main result is that the adverse selection risk does affect the stock returns. For the whole sample period, the adverse selection component has a significant impact on the stock returns and dominates all other variables except for the number of analysts following. Other significant measures include the volatility, firm size, leverage, and market to book ratio of equity. Although these information asymmetry measures act as competent determinants in the whole- period regression, they do not have consistent performance across quarters. The inconsistent result suggests that these measures may have diverse performance with regard to different periods.

我國財產保險業之簽單總保費收入為新台幣1,141.05億元，其中汽車保險之簽單保險費收入為新台幣573.34億元，佔我國財產保險業簽單總保費收入的50.25%，故汽車保險之簽單保險費收入於九十五年仍居財產保險市場各險種之冠。同時汽車保險業務量占全體產險業務量的比重，近十年來一直維持在45%～55%之間，由於汽車險業務量之消長與品質關係著保險公司經營的績效。而業務消長與品質良窳又跟行銷通路緊密相關。現今如能掌握住通路即能掌握業務，然而如何選擇良好通路及經營，對保險公司而言，是非常大的考驗與挑戰。 金融控股公司法於2001年六月二十七日經立法院三讀通過後，並於同年十一月一日起正式實施，自此台灣金融相關產業正式邁入戰國時代，大型金融控股公司紛紛成立。各金控業者藉由本身銀行、證券、產險及壽險等子公司在資源整合下，冀能發揮綜效，以達到較佳的經營糢式。 台灣汽車保險保費成長在經歷2005年達到近十年來的高峰後，2006年受到銀行雙卡壞帳緊縮消費金融的影響下，汽車經銷商新車銷售呈現大幅衰退，直接衝擊到汽車保險保費的收入與成長，因而導致2006年汽車保險保費首次呈現衰退。若高度依賴車商保代的業者，將受到同樣衰退命運，然而若業者能提前佈局多元化行銷通路，其受到衰退的影響就相對輕微，甚至部份業者的業績仍然能夠逆勢成長。有鑑於此，產險業者如何透過加入金控或開拓與壽險、銀行等合作，藉以提升業務成長，益顯重要。 本研究係以個案公司加入金控後銀行通路經營績效加以分析，確實發現產險公司若能充份發揮自身優勢與定位，爭取加入金控，藉由金控所屬子公司廣大的銷售人力及通路據點，對汽車險業務的經營績效有很大的綜效。 / Motor insurance business has played an important role in the Taiwan non-life insurance industry. The total written premium income for Motor insurance in 2006 amounted to NT$57.334 billion, which accounts for 50.25% of the overall premium income of non-life insurance industry in Taiwan. In the meantime, the business portfolio of Motor insurance to 　that of non-life insurance has been maintained at 45% - 55% over the past ten years. The quality of Motor business is significantly related to the business performance and is also closely linked to the marketing channels of the non-life insurance companies. As such, the selection of appropriate marketing channels, which is certainly a great challenge, will have predominant influence to the business performance of a non-life insurance company in Taiwan. Since the Financial Holding Company Law went into effect officially in November 2001, there are quite a number of mega financial holding companies were established afterwards. The aim of financial holding company is to integrate their respective resource among their banking sector, securities sector, non-life insurance sector, and life insurance sector, so as to achieve the synergy and to build up better business operation model as well. The premium growth for the motor insurance in 2005 has achieved the highest record nearly a decade. In 2006, the new car sales were serious impacted by the dual cards crisis (credit cards and cash cards). This certainly led to the motor premium income was first time ever reduced in the past five years. Non-life insurance companies will suffer the same of the recession as mentioned for their motor business if they highly rely on the marketing channel through the car dealers. However, the impact on the motor business could be mitigated for non-life insurance companies if they are able to explore new multi-marketing channels along with good results. The premium growth can be also anticipated for those non-life companies if they can make good use of these channels. In view of this, it will be very important for non-life insurance companies to achieve better performance by way of joining financial holding company as a subsidiary and establishing a strategic alliance with life insurance companies or banks from now on. This research is focusing on the case studies of the banking and financial holding maketing channels, for the Motor insurance business performance of the non-life insurance company. With the findings of this case study after detailed analysis, we come to conclusion that after joining the holding company, non-life insurance company can improve the business performance of synergy to a great extent for their motor insurance business by way of making full use of the sales force as well as point of sales among the subsidiaries of holding companies.

這篇論文主要是要建構一個在考慮經濟面及效率面下，評估公有路邊停車場經營管理績效的機制。當考慮經濟面及效率面時，包含權利金委外、開單勞務委外及人力派遣與政府自辦的比較，何者較具有經營管理優勢。本文選擇以這四個制度為分析對象的理由，主要是源自於公共選擇理論。另外，評估方法則應用層級分析法來評估這四個經營管理機制。而在考慮經濟與效率為目標下，評估指標分別從投入與產出這二個面向著手，其中投入面向之評估指標有人力、設備及費用，產出面向之評估指標則有每格位開單率及每人每日營收金額等。以臺北市西門地區做為實證分析對象，透過問卷調查24名專家學者對評估指標的權重，再以簡單加權法求算各個替選方案評點，研究結果發現，開單勞務委外為最優方案，其次為權利金委外，而政府自辦在經濟及效率面向，與其他三個方案比較結果，顯示最不具有經營管理優勢。 / This thesis is aimed at construct the scheme of evaluating the management economy and efficiency for public curb parking lot. Those which draw up the parking charge list including of royalty, labor-outsourcing and leased work, are compared with the government manages oneself, when consideration economy and efficiency which alternative has the superiority of operation and management. The rationale to choice these four alternatives as evaluative object is the public choice theory. Moreover, the consideration of performance evaluation has three indicators such as manpower, facility and expenditure under the schema of input, and two indicators such as the rate of draw up the parking charge list for a parking space and each person of daily earning under the schema of output. Further, analysis hierarchy process and SAW are applied for the appraisal method. In empirical study, 24 experts replied our questionnaire survey. The result suggest that the priority alternative is labor outsourcing and the government manages oneself is inferior to other three alternatives. We develop a framework to promote a better understanding of the important of public curb parking lot performance management. Using the review literature and the results an empirical study of Taipei’s curb parking lots, we developed the framework presented herein, in hope that if would stimulate more interest in this area.

Civilinės atsakomybės draudimo sutarčių institutas yra sąlyginai nauja sritis civiliniuose teisiniuose santykiuose. Kai kurie tokių sutarčių probleminiai aspektai išryškėja tik taikant konkrečias sutartis praktikoje, todėl šalyse kaip Lietuva, kur draudimo teisės tradicijos nėra labai gilios, šio instituto ypatumai ir įgyvendinimo problemos yra ganėtinai aktualūs. Nors CAD sutarties samprata atskleista pakankamai išsamiai, teisės mokslininkai iki šiol vieningai nesutaria dėl šios rūšies draudimo sutarčių prigimties, draudiminiams įvykiams taikomų kriterijų bei pačių santykio dalyvių teisių ir pareigų apimties pagal CAD sutartį. Nesant išsamaus teisinio reglamentavimo teismams tenka vadovautis bendraisiais civilinės teisės principais, o tokia praktika, nors ir pasiekusi aukščiausios instancijos teismus, neišvengia subjektyvaus atskirų situacijų vertinimo. CAD sutarties aiškinimas teismuose, kai silpnesnioji sandorio šalis, sudariusi sutartį prisijungimo būdu, yra neadekvačiai griežtai saugoma nuo ekonomiškai stipresnės šalies įtakos, neatsižvelgiant į CAD sutarties sąlygas, galų gale atsisuka prieš pačią silpnesniąją šalį. Siekiant išvengti tokios praktikos bei įtvirtinti kokybiškai vertingą CAD sutarčių taikymą, būtina atsižvelgti į šio instituto specifinį draudimo objektą – draudėjo interesą apsidrausti nuo galimos rizikos, susijusios su prievolės trečiajam asmeniui įvykdymu ir iš to kilusių pasekmių. Tik įvertinus CAD sutarčių ypatumus galima pasiekti sąžiningą ir teisinės... [toliau žr. visą tekstą] / Civil liability insurance contracts institute is a relatively new field of civil legal relations. Some of the problematic aspects of such contracts are revealed only under practice, and so in countries such as Lithuania, where tradition of insurance law is not very intense, the institute features and implementation issues are quite relevant. Although the concept of CAD contract disclosed in sufficient detail, law scientists still do not agree unanimously on the nature of insurance contracts, criteria applicable to the occurrences and the amount of rights of the participants under the CAD contract. In the absence of a comprehensive legal framework, courts have to follow general principles of civil law and even the supreme instance courts cannot avoid the subjective evaluation of individual situations. CAD contract interpretation in courts, where a weaker party of the contract is inadequately strictly protected from economically stronger party influence regardless to the terms of the contract, will eventually turn against the weaker party itself. In order to avoid such practice and establish valuably qualified application of CAD contracts, must take into account the specifics of the object of institute - policyholders interest to insure the risks associated with obligations to a third party and the performance of the resulting consequences. Only when the features of the CAD contracts are evaluated we are able to achieve a fair and on the base of the legal state established... [to full text]

This thesis treats a range of stochastic methods with various applications, most notably in finance. It is comprised of five articles, and a summary of the key concepts and results these are built on. The first two papers consider a jump-to-default model, which is a model where some quantity, e.g. the price of a financial asset, is represented by a stochastic process which has continuous sample paths except for the possibility of a sudden drop to zero. In Paper I prices of European-type options in this model are studied together with the partial integro-differential equation that characterizes the price. In Paper II the price of a perpetual American put option in the same model is found in terms of explicit formulas. Both papers also study the parameter monotonicity and convexity properties of the option prices. The third and fourth articles both deal with valuation problems in a jump-diffusion model. Paper III concerns the optimal level at which to exercise an American put option with finite time horizon. More specifically, the integral equation that characterizes the optimal boundary is studied. In Paper IV we consider a stochastic game between two players and determine the optimal value and exercise strategy using an iterative technique. Paper V employs a similar iterative method to solve the statistical problem of determining the unknown drift of a stochastic process, where not only running time but also each observation of the process is costly.

Cette thèse examine les effets des imperfections des marchés financiers sur la macroéconomie. Plus particulièrement, elle se penche sur les conséquences de la faillite dans les contrats financiers dans une perspective d'équilibre général dynamique. Le premier papier construit un modèle qui utilise l'avantage comparatif des banques dans la gestion des situations de détresse financière pour expliquer le choix des firmes entre les prêts bancaires et les prêts du marché financier. Le modèle réussit à expliquer pourquoi les firmes plus petites préfèrent le financement bancaire et pourquoi les prêts bancaires sont plus répandus en Europe. Le premier fait est expliqué par le lien négatif entre la valeur nette de l'entreprise et la probabilité de faire faillite. Le deuxième fait s'explique par le coût fixe d'émission de bons plus élevé en Europe. Le deuxième papier examine l'interaction entre les contraintes de financement affectant les ménages et les firmes. Une interaction positive pourrait amplifier et augmenter la persistance de l'effet d'un choc agrégé sur l'économie. Je construis un nouveau modèle qui contient des primes de financement externes pour les firmes et les ménages. Dans le modèle de base avec prix et salaires flexibles, j'obtiens une faible interaction négative entre les coûts de financement des firmes et des ménages. Le facteur clé qui explique ce résultat est l'effet du changement contre cyclique du coût de financement des ménages sur leur offre de travail et leur demande de prêts. Dans une période d'expansion, cet effet augmente les taux d'intérêt, réduit l'investissement et augmente le coût de financement des entreprises. Le troisième papier ajoute les contraintes de financement des banques dans un modèle macroéconomiques avec des prêts hypothécaires et des fluctuations dans les prix de l'immobilier. Les banques dans le modèle ne peuvent pas complètement diversifier leurs prêts, ce qui génère un lien entre les risques de faillite des ménages et des banques. Il y a deux effets contraires des cycles économiques qui affectent la prime de financement externe de la banque. Premièrement, il y a un lien positif entre le risque de faillite des banques et des emprunteurs qui contribue à rendre le coût de financement externe des banques contre cyclique. Deuxiément, le lissage de la consommation par les ménages rend la proportion de financement externe des banques pro cyclique, ce qui tend à rendre le coût de financement bancaire pro cyclique. En combinant ces deux effets, le modèle peut reproduire des profits bancaires et des ratios d'endettement bancaires pro cycliques comme dans les données, mais pour des chocs non-financiers les frictions de financement bancaire dans le modèle n'ont pas un effet quantitativement significatif sur les principales variables agrégées comme la consommation ou l'investissement. / This Dissertation examines the effect of financial market imperfections on the Macroeconomy. More particularly, it focuses on the consequences of equilibrium default using a Dynamic General Equilibrium approach. The first paper builds a dynamic general equilibrium model that emphasizes banks' comparative advantage in monitoring financial distress in order to explain firms' choice between bank loans and market debt. Banks can deal with financial distress more cheaply than bond holders, but this requires a higher initial expenditure proportional to the loan size. In contrast, bond issues may involve a small fixed cost. Entrepreneurs' choice of bank or bond financing depends on their net worth. The model can explain why smaller firms tend to use more bank financing and why bank financing is more prevalent in Europe than in the US. The first fact can be explained by the negative link between the net worth of a business and its default probability. Explaining the second fact requires taking into account the higehr fixed cost of issuing market debt in Europe. The second paper examines the possibility of feedback effects between between the financing constraints of households and of firms. A positive interaction between the financial strength of household and firm balance sheets may amplify aggregate shocks and increase the persistence of aggregate fluctuations. I develop a new model that incorporates both firm and household external finance spreads and time varying leverage. Contrary to a common intuition, the baseline Real Business Cycle model with credit constraints produces a small negative interaction between the costs of external financing for firms and households. The key factor in this result is the effect of changes in the external finance premium on borrowers' labour supply and the demand for loans. The reduction in households' cost of borrowing in a boom decreases labour supply and raises houshold loan demand. This increases interest rates, crowds out investment, and raises borrowing costs for financially constrained firms. The third paper integrates household financing frictions with bank financing frictions and house price fluctuations in a dynamic general equilibrium model. The key assumption in the model is that a bank cannot fully diversify shocks, leading to a link between household and bank sectors' default risks. The cyclical behaviour of banks' external funding cost is determined by two main factors. On one hand, booms improve the financial health of the banks' borrowers which tends to reduce the cost of bank funding. On the other hand, consumption smoothing by savers and borrowers during booms increases the proportion of external financing in the banks' balance sheet which tends to increase the cost of bank funding. As a result of these opposing effects, the model matches procyclical profits and leverage in the financial sector, as observed in the data, but for non financial shocks the banking frictions in the model have an insignificant impact on the main macroeconomic aggregates such as output, consumption and investment.

Ce travail de recherche est dédié à l’analyse des politiques de dividendes dans le contexte des fusions-acquisitions américaines. Le premier chapitre de cette thèse décrit le cadre de l’étude. Il présente le cadre théorique des politiques de dividendes, puis celui des fusions-acquisitions avant d’exposer les champs exploratoires relatifs aux spécificités des politiques de dividendes lors des opérations de fusions-acquisitions. Il traite, à la fin, une illustration d’une fusion américaine qui incarne un cas réel des interactions des politiques de dividendes lors des rapprochements des firmes. Le deuxième chapitre de la thèse explore empiriquement l’impact de la différence entre les politiques de dividendes des firmes fusionnées sur la politique de dividendes post-fusion, et teste un éventuel effet de compensation de la prime de fusion. Le troisième chapitre part de l’idée que la réaction négative du marché à l’annonce des acquisitions en titres de firmes cotées est l’issu de l’évaluation incorrecte de l’acquéreur. De ce fait, il explore un possible rôle informationnel de la politique de dividendes de l’acquéreur dans ce type d’opérations qui peut réduire l’asymétrie d’information sur la valorisation de l’acquéreur, et ainsi alléger la réaction négative du marché à l’annonce. Le quatrième chapitre étudie les caractéristiques financières des firmes fusionnées qui sont déterminantes de leurs politiques de dividendes. Au vu de cela, il suppose que la réussite de la fusion peut être affectée par la différence entre les politiques de dividendes des firmes fusionnées issue de la différence entre leurs caractéristiques. Les résultats de nos recherches prouvent l’effet de la divergence entre les politiques de dividendes des firmes fusionnées sur le déroulement de la fusion au moment et après la transaction. La principale contribution de cette thèse est donc d’illustrer l’importance de tenir compte des politiques de dividendes des firmes impliquées dans des opérations de fusions-acquisitions, afin de pouvoir prendre les bonnes décisions lors du rapprochement. La généralisation de l’effet de clientèle sur les firmes fusionnées permet de détecter des chocs de clientèles de dividendes, et de révéler la nécessité d’absorber ces chocs par certains termes transactionnels et par la conduite post-fusion de la firme combinée. / This research is dedicated to the analysis of dividend policy in the context of U.S. mergers and acquisitions. The first chapter of this thesis presents the framework of the study. It outlines the theoretical framework of the dividend policies and the mergers-acquisitions before stating exploratory fields related to the specificities and contributions of dividend policies in the M&A setting. Furthermore, it discusses an illustration of an US merger that embodies a real case of interactions between dividend policies during mergers-acquisitions. The second chapter empirically explores the impact of the difference between merging firms’ dividend policies on the post-merger dividend policy, and tests a probable compensation effect of the bid premium. The third chapter starts from the idea that the negative market reaction to the announcement of stock acquisitions of listed firms is derived from the acquirer’s misevaluation. Thereby, it explores the information content of the acquirer dividend policy in such deals which may reduce the information asymmetry on the acquirer valuation, and thus alleviate the negative market reaction at the announcement. The fourth chapter examines the financial characteristics of merging firms that are determining their existing dividend policies. In light of this, it assumes that the merger completion may be affected by the difference between merging firms’ dividend policies which are resulting from the difference between their characteristics. The findings of our research confirm the impact of the difference between the merging firms’ dividend policies on the conduct of the merger during and following the transaction. The main contribution of this thesis is to illustrate the importance of considering the dividend policies of companies involved in mergers-acquisitions in order to make the right decisions in favor of the reconciliation. The generalization of the clientele effect on the M&A setting allow to detect dividend clientele shocks, and reveal the need to absorb these shocks by transaction specifics and the post-merger conduct of the merged firm.

This thesis focuses on the equity premium puzzle, risk-free rate puzzle and possible solutions of these two quantitative conundrums. Original formulation of both puzzles is introduced and comprehensive literature survey is presented to show the developments regarding this topic. These include risk-based explanations, non-risk based explanations and behavioral finance perspective. Main contribution of this study dwells in estimation of these two puzzles for the Czech Republic. Using consumption-based asset pricing model with time separable preferences, presence of the two puzzles is estimated employing annual Czech data from 1995 to 2011. The equity premium puzzle is not present in the Czech Republic, as the coefficient of risk aversion 5.57  . On the other hand, the risk-free rate puzzle is as severe as in developed economies. Furthermore, the individual time preference parameter  is estimated to be larger than one - a counterintuitive result suggesting consumers prefer unit of consumption tomorrow to unit of consumption today. Robustness of the results is confirmed when different proxy for a risk-free rate is used. Results do not change significantly and the risk-free rate puzzle persists. Direction for future research of the financial market puzzles in the Czech Republic is suggested.

The issue of forecasting the future price of risky financial assets has attracted academia and business practice since the inception of the stock exchange. Also due to the just finished financial crisis, which was the worst crisis since the Great Depression, it is clear that research in this area has not been finished yet. On the contrary, new challenges have been raised. The main goal of the thesis is the demonstration of the significant information potential which is hidden in option market prices. These prices contain informations on probability distribution of the underlying asset returns and the risk connected with these returns. Other objectives of the thesis are the forecast of the underlying asset price distribution using parametric and nonparametric estimates, the improvement of this forecast using the utility function of the representative investor, the description of the current market sentiment and the determination of the risk premium, especially the risk premium on Czech market. The thesis deals with the forecast of the underlying asset price probability distribution implied by the current option market prices using parametric and nonparametric estimates. The resulting distribution is described by the moment characteristics which represent a valuable tool for analyzing the current market sentiment. According to the theory, the probability distribution of the underlying asset price implied by option prices is risk neutral, i.e. it applies only to risk neutral investors. The theory further implies that the distribution of real world can be derived from the risk neutral distribution using utility function of the representative investor. The inclusion of a utility function of representative investor improves the forecast of the underlying asset price distribution. Three different utility functions of traditional risk theory are used in the thesis. These functions range from the simple power function to the general function of hyperbolic absolute risk aversion (HARA). Further, Friedman-Savage utility function is used. This function allows both a risk averse investor and a risk loving investor. The thesis also answers the question: Are the current asset prices at so high level that the purchase of the asset means a gamble? The risk premium associated with investing in the risky asset is derived in the thesis. The risk premium can be understood as the premium demanded by investors for investment in a risky asset against the investment in a riskless asset. All the theoretical methods introduced in the thesis are demonstrated on real data coming from two different markets. Developing market is represented by shares of CEZ and developed market is represented by S&P 500 futures. The thesis deals with demonstrations in single point in time as well as in available history of the data. The forecasts of the underlying asset price distribution and the relating risk premium are constructed in the available data history. The goals and the objectives of the thesis have been achieved. The contribution of the thesis is the development of parametric and nonparametric methodology for estimating the underlying asset price probability distribution implied by the option market prices so that the nature of the particular market and instrument is captured. The further contribution of the thesis is the construction of the forecasts of the underlying asset price distribution and the construction of the market sentiment in the available history of data. The contribution of the thesis is also the construction of the market risk premium in the available history and the establishment of the hypothesis that the markets gamble before the crisis.