La spécificité de la tradition monétaire de Henry Thornton, Ralph George Hawtrey, John Maynard Keynes et John Richard Hicks, est de considérer le taux d'intérêt comme une variable influencée par la banque centrale. Ces auteurs peuvent être rattachés à une même tradition monétaire, différente de celle de Knut Wicksell, où le taux d'intérêt est déterminé par une variable réelle: le taux de profit. Dans la tradition de Thornton, le prêt et l'emprunt renvoient une vente et un achat de titres de dette. Ces derniers prennent une forme différente selon la période étudiée. Au dix-neuvième siècle, Thornton proposait que la Banque d'Angleterre contrôle, par des variations de son taux d'escompte, le prix de la liquidité de court-terme, étant la substituabilité des traites commerciales en monnaie. Un siècle plus tard, cette influence était effective. Cependant, au XXe siècle, avec le développement des marchés financiers, d'autre canaux de transmissions de la politique monétaire sont apparus. Bien que négligée par 1 littérature, une des controverses les plus représentatives de cette époque est celle d'Hawtre Keynes et Hicks. Ils conviennent que le taux court est un phénomène monétaire. En revanche, ils ne s'accordent pas sur la nature du taux long. Les débats portent sur la théorie pionnière d Keynes de la structure par terme des taux d'intérêt, les effets d'annonces, ainsi que les limite de l'arbitrage. / The specificity of the monetary tradition of Henry Thornton, Ralph George Hawtrey, John Maynard Keynes and John Richard Hicks is to consider the interest rate as mainly determined by the monetary policy. Those authors are part of the same monetary tradition, different that Knut Wicksell for whom the interest rate is a real variable: the rate of profit. The process of borrowing and lending, in the monetary tradition analyzed in my PhD thesis, corresponds to a sale and a purchase of debts. Debts take a different form according to the period studied. ln the nineteenth century, Thornton wrote that the Bank of England should be able to manage, by varying its discount rate, the price of short-term liquidity, which is the substitution of bills againt money. ln the twentieth century, other transmission channels of monetary policy appeared wit the evolution of financial markets. Although neglected by the literature, one of the most representative controversy at that time was between Hawtrey, Keynes and Hicks. All made a theory in which the short-term rate is a monetary phenomenon. They however disagreed on the nature of the long-term rate. The debate is on Keynes's pioneering theory of the term structur of interest rates, the announcement effects, and the limits to arbitrage.

<p>The cross-sectional variation of stock returns used to be described by the Capital Asset Pricing Model until the early 90‟s. Anomalies, such as, book-to-market effect and small firm effect undermined CAPM‟s ability to explain stock returns and Fama & French (1992) have shown that simple firm attributes, like, firm size and book-to-market value can explain the returns far better than Beta. Following Fama & French many other researchers examine the explanatory powers of CAPM and other asset pricing models. However, most of those studies use US data. There are some researches done in different countries than US, however more out-of-sample studies need to be conducted.</p><p>To our knowledge there are very few studies using the Swedish data and this thesis contributes to that small pool of studies. Moreover, the studies testing the CAPM use the unconditional version of the model. There are some papers suggesting the use of a conditional CAPM that would exhibit better explanatory powers than the unconditional CAPM. Different ways of conditioning the CAPM have been proposed, but one that we think is the least complex and possible to make use of in the business world is the dual-beta model. This conditional CAPM assumes a different relationship between beta and stock returns during the up markets and down markets. Furthermore, the model has not thoroughly been tested outside the US. Our study is the first to use the dual-beta model in Sweden. In addition, the momentum effect has lately been given some attention and Fama & French‟s (1993) three factor model has not been able to explain the abnormal returns related to that anomaly. We test the Fama & French three factor model, CAPM and Carhart‟s four factor model‟s explanatory abilities of the momentum effect using Swedish stock returns. Ultimately, our aim is to find the best model that describes stock return cross-section on the Stockholm Stock Exchange.</p><p>We use returns of all the non-financial firms listed on Stockholm Stock Exchange between September, 1997 and April, 2010. The number of companies included in our time sample is 366. The results of our tests indicate that the small firm effect, book-to-market effect and the momentum effect are not present on the Stockholm Stock Exchange. Consequently, the CAPM emerges as the one model that explains stock return cross-section better than the other models suggesting that Beta is still a proper measure of risk. Furthermore, the conditional version of CAPM describes the stock return variation far better than the unconditional CAPM. This implies using different Betas to estimate risk during up market conditions and down market conditions.</p>

The cross-sectional variation of stock returns used to be described by the Capital Asset Pricing Model until the early 90‟s. Anomalies, such as, book-to-market effect and small firm effect undermined CAPM‟s ability to explain stock returns and Fama &amp; French (1992) have shown that simple firm attributes, like, firm size and book-to-market value can explain the returns far better than Beta. Following Fama &amp; French many other researchers examine the explanatory powers of CAPM and other asset pricing models. However, most of those studies use US data. There are some researches done in different countries than US, however more out-of-sample studies need to be conducted. To our knowledge there are very few studies using the Swedish data and this thesis contributes to that small pool of studies. Moreover, the studies testing the CAPM use the unconditional version of the model. There are some papers suggesting the use of a conditional CAPM that would exhibit better explanatory powers than the unconditional CAPM. Different ways of conditioning the CAPM have been proposed, but one that we think is the least complex and possible to make use of in the business world is the dual-beta model. This conditional CAPM assumes a different relationship between beta and stock returns during the up markets and down markets. Furthermore, the model has not thoroughly been tested outside the US. Our study is the first to use the dual-beta model in Sweden. In addition, the momentum effect has lately been given some attention and Fama &amp; French‟s (1993) three factor model has not been able to explain the abnormal returns related to that anomaly. We test the Fama &amp; French three factor model, CAPM and Carhart‟s four factor model‟s explanatory abilities of the momentum effect using Swedish stock returns. Ultimately, our aim is to find the best model that describes stock return cross-section on the Stockholm Stock Exchange. We use returns of all the non-financial firms listed on Stockholm Stock Exchange between September, 1997 and April, 2010. The number of companies included in our time sample is 366. The results of our tests indicate that the small firm effect, book-to-market effect and the momentum effect are not present on the Stockholm Stock Exchange. Consequently, the CAPM emerges as the one model that explains stock return cross-section better than the other models suggesting that Beta is still a proper measure of risk. Furthermore, the conditional version of CAPM describes the stock return variation far better than the unconditional CAPM. This implies using different Betas to estimate risk during up market conditions and down market conditions.

The concept of outlier detection by statistical hypothesis testing in geodesy is briefly reviewed. The performance of such tests can only be measured or optimized with respect to a proper alternative hypothesis. Firstly, we discuss the important question whether gross errors should be treated as non-random quantities or as random variables. In the first case, the alternative hypothesis must be based on the common mean shift model, while in the second case, the variance inflation model is appropriate. Secondly, we review possible formulations of alternative hypotheses (inherent, deterministic, slippage, mixture) and discuss their implications. As measures of optimality of an outlier detection, we propose the premium and protection, which are briefly reviewed. Finally, we work out a practical example: the fit of a straight line. It demonstrates the impact of the choice of an alternative hypothesis for outlier detection. / Das Konzept der Ausreißererkennung durch statistische Hypothesentests in der Geodäsie wird kurz überblickt. Die Leistungsfähigkeit solch eines Tests kann nur gemessen oder optimiert werden in Bezug auf eine geeignete Alternativhypothese. Als erstes diskutieren wir die wichtige Frage, ob grobe Fehler als nicht-zufällige oder zufällige Größen behandelt werden sollten. Im ersten Fall muss die Alternativhypothese auf das Mean-Shift-Modell gegründet werden, im zweiten Fall ist das Variance-Inflation-Modell passend. Als zweites stellen wir mögliche Formulierungen von Alternativhypothesen zusammen und diskutieren ihre Implikationen. Als Optimalitätsmaß schlagen wir das Premium-Protection-Maß vor, welches kurz überblickt wird. Schließlich arbeiten wir ein praktisches Beispiel aus: Die Anpassung einer ausgleichenden Gerade. Es zeigt die Auswirkung der Wahl einer Alternativhypothese für die Ausreißererkennung.

The concept of outlier detection by statistical hypothesis testing in geodesy is briefly reviewed. The performance of such tests can only be measured or optimized with respect to a proper alternative hypothesis. Firstly, we discuss the important question whether gross errors should be treated as non-random quantities or as random variables. In the first case, the alternative hypothesis must be based on the common mean shift model, while in the second case, the variance inflation model is appropriate. Secondly, we review possible formulations of alternative hypotheses (inherent, deterministic, slippage, mixture) and discuss their implications. As measures of optimality of an outlier detection, we propose the premium and protection, which are briefly reviewed. Finally, we work out a practical example: the fit of a straight line. It demonstrates the impact of the choice of an alternative hypothesis for outlier detection. / Das Konzept der Ausreißererkennung durch statistische Hypothesentests in der Geodäsie wird kurz überblickt. Die Leistungsfähigkeit solch eines Tests kann nur gemessen oder optimiert werden in Bezug auf eine geeignete Alternativhypothese. Als erstes diskutieren wir die wichtige Frage, ob grobe Fehler als nicht-zufällige oder zufällige Größen behandelt werden sollten. Im ersten Fall muss die Alternativhypothese auf das Mean-Shift-Modell gegründet werden, im zweiten Fall ist das Variance-Inflation-Modell passend. Als zweites stellen wir mögliche Formulierungen von Alternativhypothesen zusammen und diskutieren ihre Implikationen. Als Optimalitätsmaß schlagen wir das Premium-Protection-Maß vor, welches kurz überblickt wird. Schließlich arbeiten wir ein praktisches Beispiel aus: Die Anpassung einer ausgleichenden Gerade. Es zeigt die Auswirkung der Wahl einer Alternativhypothese für die Ausreißererkennung.

The current commercial version of ScorX multi-track premium music score(MPMS) player has poor support on mobile device, extra cost could be required for current product to support mobile device. This project aims to focus on developing a MPMS player1 using web based cross-platform technology. The company's commercial version is build on Adobe Flash Player. An investigation is conducted and result shows that a possible solution exist that by using which building such a player could be done by using Web Audio API and Adobe Edge Animate; a prototype is built upon this solution. Study of this project shows that alternative solution for support mobile device could be native application for single mobile hardware platform and Haxe for multiple hardware platform including desktop and mobile device. After building a prototype, a series of tests are run to evaluate both Flash player solution and HTML5 solution. It turns out that Flash player will still be the rst choice for desktop device solution in current phase since it is more stable with a rather satisfactory performance, while HTML5 solution supports better in mobile device. The most of the disadvantage of HTML5 solution lies on the performance of the audio engine (i.e. Web Audio API) rather than the animation engine. As more and more major web browser has fully supportWeb Audio API, it will for sure make the audio engine perform even better. The future development of ScorX multi-track premium music score should therefore focus on HTML5 and native application if necessary. / Den nuvarande kommersiella versionen av ScorX multi-track premium music score(MPMS) har dåligt stöd för mobila enheter och det kan medföra extra kostnader att göra så att produkten stödjer mobila enheter. Projektet syftar till att fokusera på att utveckla en MPMS baserat på en webbaserad och plattformsoberoende teknik. Bolagets kommersiella version bygger på Adobe Flash Player. En utredning genomförs och resultatet visar att en möjlig lösning finns i att använda Web Audio API och Adobe Edge Animate där det redan finns en prototyp som bygger på denna lösning. Studien av detta visar att en alternativ lösning för att göra systemet kompatibelt med mobila enheter kan vara en skräddarsydda native-versioner för respektive mobil hårdvaruplattform och Haxe för övriga stationära och mobila enheter. När prototypen var byggd kördes en serie tester för att utvärdera både Flash player lösningen och HTML5-lösningen. Det visar sig att Flash player fortfarande kommer att vara ett första val för stationära enheter i nuvarande fas eftersom den är mer stabil med en ganska tillfredsställande prestanda, medan HTML5-lösningen fungerar bättre i mobila enheter. Den huvudsakliga nackdelen med HTML5-lösning ligger på utförandet av ljudmotorn (dvs Web Audio API) i stället för animeringen av motorn. Eftersom er och er stora webbläsare har full supportWeb Audio API, kommer ljudmotorn prestera ännu bättre framöver. Den framtida utvecklingen av ScorX flerspårig premium musik poäng bör därfor inriktas på HTML5 och ursprungliga programmet om det behövs.

Insurance is built on the principle that a group of people contributes to a common pool of money which will be used to cover the costs for individuals who suffer from the insured event. In a competitive market, an insurance company will only be profitable if their pricing reflects the covered risks as good as possible. This thesis investigates the recently proposed Combined Actuarial Neural Network (CANN), a model nesting the traditional Generalised Linear Model (GLM) used in insurance pricing into a Neural Network (NN). The main idea of utilising NNs for insurance pricing is to model interactions between features that the GLM is unable to capture. The CANN model is analysed in a commercial insurance setting with respect to two research questions. The first research question, RQ 1, seeks to answer if the CANN model can outperform the underlying GLM with respect to error metrics and actuarial model evaluation tools. The second research question, RQ 2, seeks to identify existing interpretability methods that can be applied to the CANN model and also showcase how they can be applied. The results for RQ 1 show that CANN models are able to consistently outperform the GLM with respect to chosen model evaluation tools. A literature search is conducted to answer RQ 2, identifying interpretability methods that either are applicable or are possibly applicable to the CANN model. One interpretability method is also proposed in this thesis specifically for the CANN model, using model-fitted averages on two-dimensional segments of the data. Three interpretability methods from the literature search and the one proposed in this thesis are demonstrated, illustrating how these may be applied. / Försäkringar bygger på principen att en grupp människor bidrar till en gemensam summa pengar som används för att täcka kostnader för individer som råkar ut för den försäkrade händelsen. I en konkurrensutsatt marknad kommer försäkringsbolag endast vara lönsamma om deras prissättning är så bra som möjligt. Denna uppsats undersöker den nyligen föreslagna Combined Actuarial Neural Network (CANN) modellen som bygger in en Generalised Linear Model (GLM) i ett neuralt nätverk, i en praktiskt och kommersiell försäkringskontext med avseende på två forskningsfrågor. Huvudidén för en CANN modell är att fånga interaktioner mellan variabler, vilket en GLM inte automatiskt kan göra. Forskningsfråga 1 ämnar undersöka huruvida en CANN modell kan prestera bättre än en GLM med avseende på utvalda statistiska prestationsmått och modellutvärderingsverktyg som används av aktuarier. Forskningsfråga 2 ämnar identifiera några tolkningsverktyg som kan appliceras på CANN modellen samt demonstrera hur de kan användas. Resultaten för Forskningsfråga 1 visar att CANN modellen kan prestera bättre än en GLM. En literatursökning genomförs för att svara på Forskningsfråga 2, och ett antal tolkningsverktyg identifieras. Ett tolkningsverktyg föreslås också i denna uppsats specifikt för att tolka CANN modellen. Tre av tolkningsverktygen samt det utvecklade verktyget demonstreras för att visa hur de kan användas för att tolka CANN modellen.

Insurance is built on the principle that a group of people contributes to a common pool of money which will be used to cover the costs for individuals who suffer from the insured event. In a competitive market, an insurance company will only be profitable if their pricing reflects the covered risks as good as possible. This thesis investigates the recently proposed Combined Actuarial Neural Network (CANN), a model nesting the traditional Generalised Linear Model (GLM) used in insurance pricing into a Neural Network (NN). The main idea of utilising NNs for insurance pricing is to model interactions between features that the GLM is unable to capture. The CANN model is analysed in a commercial insurance setting with respect to two research questions. The first research question, RQ 1, seeks to answer if the CANN model can outperform the underlying GLM with respect to error metrics and actuarial model evaluation tools. The second research question, RQ 2, seeks to identify existing interpretability methods that can be applied to the CANN model and also showcase how they can be applied. The results for RQ 1 show that CANN models are able to consistently outperform the GLM with respect to chosen model evaluation tools. A literature search is conducted to answer RQ 2, identifying interpretability methods that either are applicable or are possibly applicable to the CANN model. One interpretability method is also proposed in this thesis specifically for the CANN model, using model-fitted averages on two-dimensional segments of the data. Three interpretability methods from the literature search and the one proposed in this thesis are demonstrated, illustrating how these may be applied. / Försäkringar bygger på principen att en grupp människor bidrar till en gemensam summa pengar som används för att täcka kostnader för individer som råkar ut för den försäkrade händelsen. I en konkurrensutsatt marknad kommer försäkringsbolag endast vara lönsamma om deras prissättning är så bra som möjligt. Denna uppsats undersöker den nyligen föreslagna Combined Actuarial Neural Network (CANN) modellen som bygger in en Generalised Linear Model (GLM) i ett neuralt nätverk, i en praktiskt och kommersiell försäkringskontext med avseende på två forskningsfrågor. Huvudidén för en CANN modell är att fånga interaktioner mellan variabler, vilket en GLM inte automatiskt kan göra. Forskningsfråga 1 ämnar undersöka huruvida en CANN modell kan prestera bättre än en GLM med avseende på utvalda statistiska prestationsmått och modellutvärderingsverktyg som används av aktuarier. Forskningsfråga 2 ämnar identifiera några tolkningsverktyg som kan appliceras på CANN modellen samt demonstrera hur de kan användas. Resultaten för Forskningsfråga 1 visar att CANN modellen kan prestera bättre än en GLM. En literatursökning genomförs för att svara på Forskningsfråga 2, och ett antal tolkningsverktyg identifieras. Ett tolkningsverktyg föreslås också i denna uppsats specifikt för att tolka CANN modellen. Tre av tolkningsverktygen samt det utvecklade verktyget demonstreras för att visa hur de kan användas för att tolka CANN modellen.

[pt] O presente trabalho traz 6 diferentes técnicas de previsão para a variação mensal do Índice da Produção Industrial americana em 3 ambientes diferentes totalizando 18 modelos. No primeiro ambiente foram usados como variáveis explicativas a própria defasagem da variação mensal do Índice da produção industrial e outras 55 variáveis de mercado e de expectativa tais quais retornos setoriais, prêmio de risco de mercado, volatilidade implícita, prêmio de taxa de juros (corporate e longo prazo), sentimento do consumidor e índice de incerteza. No segundo ambiente foi usado à data base do FRED com 130 variáveis econômicas como variáveis explicativas. No terceiro ambiente foram usadas as variáveis mais relevantes do ambiente 1 e do ambiente 2. Observa-se no trabalho uma melhora em prever o IP contra um modelo AR e algumas interpretações a respeito do comportamento da economia americana nos últimos 45 anos (importância de setores econômicos, períodos de incerteza, mudanças na resposta a prêmio de risco, volatilidade e taxa de juros). / [en] This thesis presents 6 different forecasting techniques for the monthly variation of the American Industrial Production Index in 3 different environments, totaling 18 models. In the first environment, the lags of the monthly variation of the industrial production index and other 55 market and expectation variables such as sector returns, market risk premium, implied volatility, and interest rate risk premiums (corporate premium and long term premium), consumer sentiment and uncertainty index. In the second environment was used the FRED data base with 130 economic variables as explanatory variables. In the third environment, the most relevant variables of environment 1 and environment 2 were used. It was observed an improvement in predicting IP against an AR model and some interpretations regarding the behavior of the American economy in the last 45 years (importance of sectors, uncertainty periods, and changes in response to risk premium, volatility and interest rate).

1.Summary - review in English The above-mentioned work comprises of two basic issues that are connected together, namely commentary on Insurance Policy Act as general introduction into the field of insurance policies and consequent and special issue of legal expenses insurance interpretation. The basic meaning of it was to introduce not only the provisons concerning insurance policies, but also to show one of the insurance policies type in details, what could be hardly possible or satisfactory without preceding description of the Insurance Policy Act. Thus, complete summary of this work will be divided into two parts; first would be the part concerning Insurance Policy Act and second would be the part concerning legal expenses insurance. 1.1.Insurance Policy Act - Summary The first part of this work concerned, as mentioned above, the Insurance Policy Act, whereas my primary aim was to interpret provisions of this act that were worth it and point out namely on imperfections of the existing legislature. It wasn't and wouldn't be of any significant value just to copy and paste individual provisions of the act, therefore, this work aimed primarily on introduction of new ideas and as a basis for that served a confrontation with the actual wording and its interpretation, whereas plain consent with what was...