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  • About
  • The Global ETD Search service is a free service for researchers to find electronic theses and dissertations. This service is provided by the Networked Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations.
    Our metadata is collected from universities around the world. If you manage a university/consortium/country archive and want to be added, details can be found on the NDLTD website.
341

Studio dei processi infiammatori nel periodo di transizione e dopo LPS "Challenge" in bovine sottoposte a diversi stressmetabolici

DE MATTEIS, LUISA 23 February 2012 (has links)
Il processo infiammatorio è un meccanismo di difesa aspecifico innato, che costituisce una risposta protettiva dell’organismo a vari tipi di insulto (infezione, danno tissutale, trauma, stress, malattie autoimmune,). Esso comporta il rilascio in circolo di mediatori pro-infiammatori (es. citochine) and anti-infiammatori (es lipossine ed alcune citochine). Le citochine pro-infiammatorie inducono effetti infiammatori (es. anoressia e febbre) e stimolano la risposta di fase acuta (APR). Invece, le lipossine e le citochine anti-infiammatorie tendono ad attenuare l’infiammazione. Gli scopi di questa ricerca erano due: distinguere i soggetti in base al grado di severità della APR dopo il parto, e dopo stimolazione intramammaria con lipopolisaccaride (LPS) in bovine da latte sottoposte a diversi stress metabolici (NaCl, BHB, EuG e IpoG). I soggetti EuG e BHB hanno mostrato una APR più severa rispetto a IpoG e NaCl. Un ulteriore scopo è stato proposto un indice composto da alcune proteine di fase acuta al fine di stimare i processi infiammatori e le conseguenze epatiche (PICE). Le bovine con PICE più basso prima del parto, avevano più alti livelli plasmatici di citochine pro-infiammatorie e lipossine prima del parto (e mostravano una APR più severa dopo il parto), anche in assenza di sintomi clinici. / Inflammation is the innate, non-specific response of the host to disturbances in his homeostasis caused by infection, tissue injury, stress, trauma, neoplastic growth, immunological disorders. It involves pro- (e.g. cytokines) and anti-inflammatory mediators (e.g. lipoxins, some cytokines). The pro-inflammatory cytokines induce inflammatory effects (e.g. anorexia, fever) and play key roles in the stimulation of acute phase response (APR). The lipoxins and anti-inflammatory cytokines tend to mitigate the inflammation. Two were the aims of this research: to investigate in dairy cows the severity of APR at calving time as well as after intramammary lypopolysaccharide (LPS) administration in cows challenged with hyperinsulinemic hypoglycemic (HypoG, n=4), hyperinsulinemic euglycemic (EuG, n=5), hyperketonemic (BHB, n=4) and control (NaCl, n=6) clamps. Plasma samples were assayed for a wide metabolic and inflammatory profile. With respect to HypoG and NaCl animals, more severe APR was observed in EuG and BHB. A further aim was the proposal of an Index, composed by several acute phase proteins, to estimate Inflammatory Processes and Hepatic Consequences (IPHC). The dairy cows with lower IPHC after calving, had higher plasma levels of pro-inflammatory cytokines and of lipoxins before calving (and showed a stronger APR after calving); this was seen also in absence of clinical symptoms.
342

CAD orientierte Teach-In Simulation und Bewegungsoptimierung für beliebige Roboterbaureihen

Riedel, Mathias 13 May 2009 (has links) (PDF)
Der Vortrag beschäftigt sich mit der Simulation von Handhabungs- Montage- und Fertigungsaufgaben mit Hilfe von einem bzw. mehreren miteinander zusammenarbeitender Industrieroboter. Es werden Möglichkeiten aufgezeigt, wie die Herangehensweise für den Aufbau einer solchen Simulation ist. Weiterhin wird auf das Thema der Glättung von Unstetigkeiten nach verschiedenen Verfahren und deren Auswirkung auf die Bahntrajektorie eingegangen.
343

Activist public relations and programs of self-directed change

van Gastel, Mario 13 July 2011 (has links)
The principal theory in the field of public relations, grounded in the landmark Excellence Study headed by J.E. Grunig (1992), has moved from viewing activist groups as posing a threat to organizational effectiveness, to recognizing their positive influence on the development of Excellent public relations practices, to incorporating the activist perspective into the main research agenda. The public relations practices of activist groups are similar to those of their target organizations, and research has demonstrated that both parties are more likely to achieve their respective goals if both use symmetrical strategies. Factors that have been found to be critical to the success of activist groups include their ability to maintain the viability and legitimacy of the organization and the issue(s) it pursues, and their ability to build relationships of trust with its members, complementary organizations, legislative bodies, and the press. Since web-based communication has become a principal source of counterbalancing their disadvantage in resources vis-à-vis the targeted institution(s), the ability to take advantage of the potential of online media has also become critical to the success of activist groups. Another important source for counterweighing the “deep pockets” of their corporate or governmental adversaries, and thus a critical factor for success, is the “motivation and fervor” of the members of activist groups. Whereas the public relations behavior of corporations and governments is primarily cued by highly rational and regulated guidelines at the organizational (meso) level, activist public relations behavior is often grounded in highly emotional considerations at the personal (micro) level. This raises the question: how can the public relations practices of an activist group affect its members at the personal level? Bandura’s model of self-directed change (1990) offers a promising framework for addressing this question, as it facilitates the evaluation of an activist group’s public relations campaign in terms of its effectiveness in reinforcing the motivation, social and self-regulatory skills, and self-efficacy of individual members. The model suggests that effective activist public relations practices are not only successful in preserving viability and legitimacy at the meso level, but also enhance empowerment at the micro level. / text
344

Αλγοριθμική επίλυση προβλήματος

Χαλεπλή, Ευαγγελία 20 February 2008 (has links)
H παρούσα εργασία , έγινε στα πλαίσια της Διπλωματικής εργασίας, με θέμα : «Aλγοριθμική επίλυση προβλήματος» Στην εργασία επιχειρείται, η κατάθεση εμπειριών, προβληματισμών και προτάσεων σχετικών με την εισαγωγή και αξιοποίηση Logo περιβάλλοντος στη διδακτική πράξη και συγκεκριμένα του Microworlds pro, με σκοπό την ανάδειξη σημαντικών πτυχών της σχεδίασης, ανάπτυξης, εφαρμογής και αξιολόγησης εκπαιδευτικών σεναρίων και δραστηριοτήτων, στο πλαίσιο της αποτελεσματικής ένταξης των εκπαιδευτικών λογισμικών, στη διδακτική της Πληροφορικής. Η διαδικασία που ακολουθεί περιλαμβάνει τρία βήματα: α) δημιουργία κινήτρου, β) οικοδόμηση της γνώσης μέσω της διερεύνησης και συνεργασίας, γ) εφαρμογή-αναδόμηση της γνώσης. Σκοπός των μαθημάτων, που πραγματοποιήθηκαν σε μαθητές της Γ΄ Γυμνασίου, ήταν να αποκτήσουν οι μαθητές ,ευχέρεια στη χρήση συμβολικών μέσων έκφρασης, για την αναπαράσταση της διαδικασίας επίλυσης προβλημάτων, να αναπτύξουν αναλυτική συνθετική σκέψη και να ασκηθούν στα βασικά δομικά στοιχεία και τις έννοιες του προγραμματισμού. Στόχος, δεν ήταν να μάθουν μια γλώσσα προγραμματισμού, αλλά να κατανοήσουν την έννοια του Αλγόριθμου, δηλαδή ,να μπορούν να αναλύσουν ένα απλό πρόβλημα σε ακολουθία σαφώς ορισμένων και πεπερασμένων βημάτων. / The present work , became in the frames of Diplomatic work, on the subject: " Algorithmic resolution of problem " In the work is attempted, the deposit of experiences, reflections and proposals relative with the import and exploitation Reason of environment in the instructive practice and concretely the Microworlds prο, aiming at the appointment of important aspects of designing, growth, application and evaluation of educational scripts and activities, in the frame of effective integration of educational softwares, in the didactics of Information technology. The process that follows includes three steps: a) creation of motive, v) construction of knowledge via the investigation and collaboration, c) application of knowledge. Aim of courses, that were realised in students of c class, of High school, was acquires the students, occasion in the use of symbolic means of expression, for the representation of process of resolution of problems, to develop analytic synthetic thought and to practise itself in the basic structural elements and the significances of planning. Objective, was not they learn a language of planning, but they comprehend the significance of Algorithm, that is to say, they can analyze a simple problem in sequence of course certain and finite steps.
345

PARAMETRI IMMUNITARI E INFIAMMATORI NELLA VACCA DA LATTE IN TRANSIZIONE COME MARCATORI PREDITTIVI DI PROBLEMI DI SALUTE / IMMUNE AND INFLAMMATORY PARAMETERS IN TRANSITION DAIRY COWS AS PREDICTIVE MARKERS OF HEALTH DISORDERS

JAHAN, NUSRAT 19 February 2014 (has links)
Il periodo di transizione (TP) delle vacche da latte è caratterizzata da disfunzione del sistema immunitario e dalla comparsa di fenomeni infiammatori. La tesi ha presentato una vasta revisione della letteratura seguita da 3 articoli sperimentali. Nel capitolo II sono stati investigati i cambiamenti delle citochine pro-infiammatorie (PIC) nel TP. I livelli di PIC hanno mostrato una elevata variabilità in tarda gravidanza, ma i livelli più alti hanno mostrato un’associazione con i problemi di salute e le prestazioni dopo il parto. Nel capitolo III, l'attività immunitaria di vacche in transizione è stata valutata utilizzando un test ex vivo di stimolazione del sangue con lipopolisaccaridi (WBA) e un test cutaneo alla carragenina. I risultati hanno rivelato che il sistema immunitario è molto sensibile in prossimità del parto. Entrambi i test descrivono i cambiamenti del sistema immunitario durante il TP. Nel capitolo IV, è stata valutata l’espressione genica dei leucociti durante il TP con la tecnica dell’ RNA-Seq. Confrontando i geni differenzialmente espressi con i risultati del capitolo II e III sono stati resi noti i cambiamenti funzionali dei leucociti. Complessivamente, queste ricerche contribuiscono a definire meglio la fisiologia della fase di transizione della vacche da latte. / The transition period of dairy cows is characterized by immune dysfunction and inflammatory like conditions. The thesis presented a wide review literature followed by 3 research papers. Chapter II investigated the pattern of changes of pro-inflammatory cytokines (PIC) around parturition and discovered an association with periparturient health status. PIC levels showed a high variability in late pregnancy but the highest levels demonstrated a good relationship with health troubles and performance after calving. In Chapter III, immune activity of transition cows were evaluated using: an ex vivo whole blood stimulation assay (WBA) with lipopolysaccharides and a carrageenan skin test. Results revealed that immune system is very sensitive around calving in respect to both tests, with a significant increase of pro-inflammatory cytokines and a reduction of the skin thickness after carrageenan challenge. Thus, both tests are able to describe the complex changes of the immune system combined to conventional metabolic and immune parameters. In Chapter IV, changes of leukocyte gene expression were evaluated from 20 days before to 7 days after calving using RNA-seq technique. Comparing the differentially expressed genes with the results of Chapter II and III were disclosed fundamental functional changes in leukocytes. Overall, these researches contribute to define better the physiology of the most vulnerable phase of dairy cows.
346

Ätstörningens ansikten : en kvalitativ studie om upplevelser och erfarenheter av att kunna anpassa sig till ett friskare liv / Eating Disorders faces : a qualitative study about experiences of being able to adapt to a healthier life

Gergelj, Viktoria, Rossander, Sandra January 2013 (has links)
This is a qualitative study which purpose is to examine the experiences of the recovery process after a treatment for eating disorders.                                                          The questions we have decided to examine are; how did the women adapt to a healthier life after treatment, what are the women's perceived experiences of the aspects related to identity and identity work, and what external social influence was seen as important for their adjustment process to a healthier life? Methods: We have used computer-supported and semi-structured interviews. There were a total of nine women who took part in the study.                                                                                                                     Results: Majority of these women have been recovered from their eating disorders, but some still have major or minor problems. They found it rather difficult to adjust their life's without an eating disorder. Conclusions: Increased self-awarness led to greater control over the eating disorder. The women could begin to confer the new features that they identified with. The social network is described as having been a major factor in the recovery process.
347

Entwurf und Auslegung eines neuen nichtlinearen Antriebskonzeptes mittels Creo™ Elements/Pro™

Denninger, Daniel, Berger, Maik, Heine, Andreas 12 May 2011 (has links) (PDF)
- ganzheitliche Getriebeauslegung mit Hilfe von Mathcad, Creo™ Elements/Pro™ und MOCAD - Konkretisierung der Problemstellung beim Rundflechten und Ableiten von Bewegungsanforderungen an die Getriebestruktur - Strukturauswahl und Synthese mit Motion-Skelett in Creo™ Elements/Pro™ und Mathcad - MOCAD - MOtion and CAm-Design ist ein universell einsetzbares Werkzeug zum Bewegungsdesign und zur Auslegung von Kurvengetrieben - MOCAD wird zur Bearbeitung von Forschungs- und Industrieprojekten eingesetzt und mit Kooperationspartnern weiterentwickelt - Integrierte FEM-Analyse von Getriebestrukturen und Einzelteilen - Test des neuen Mechanica Features "Gelenkverbindungen"
348

Expressão de genes e proteínas anti-e-pró-apoptóticas em células precursoras da medula óssea e leucócitos do sangue periférico de pacientes portadores de policitemia vera / Pro- and anti-apoptotic genes and proteins expression in bone marrow precursors and peripheral blood leukocytes in polycythemia vera patients

Elainy Patricia Lino Gasparotto 15 April 2009 (has links)
GASPAROTTO, E.P.L. Expressão de genes e proteínas pró- e anti-apoptóticas em células precursoras da medula óssea e leucócitos do sangue periférico de pacientes portadores de policitemia vera. 2009. 185f. Tese de Doutorado. Faculdade de Ciências Farmacêuticas de Ribeirão Preto Universidade de São Paulo, Ribeirão Preto, 2009. A policitemia vera (PV) é uma doença mieloproliferativa clonal que afeta o progenitor hematopoético multipotente causando o acúmulo de eritrócitos, leucócitos e plaquetas morfologicamente normais e seus precursores, na ausência de um estímulo definido. Alterações na regulação da apoptose parece ser uma das causas do acúmulo de células eritróides sem a necessidade de eritropoetina. A mutação JAK2 V617F foi descrita como um dos eventos envolvidos na fisiopatologia das Doenças Mieloproliferativas Crônicas, sendo relacionada a um pior prognóstico. Esta mutação resulta na ativação constitutiva da enzima Janus Kinase 2 e conseqüentemente das vias de sinalização associadas ao estímulo celular mediado por citocinas e fatores de crescimento. O objetivo deste estudo foi investigar as alterações da expressão de proteínas e genes envolvidos na regulação da apoptose em pacientes com PV sem tratamento. Para tanto foi quantificada a expressão de genes e proteínas da família Bcl-2 e da via extrínseca da apoptose em células precursoras e leucócitos desses pacientes e de indivíduos saudáveis. Os leucócitos do sangue periférico de 12 pacientes e 14 controles foram obtidos pelo método de Haes-esteril. As células precursoras CD34+ destes pacientes e de 19 controles foram separadas em coluna imunomagnética. A detecção da expressão gênica e protéica das moléculas anti- e pró-apoptóticas foi realizada pelas técnicas de PCR em tempo real e Western-blot, respectivamente. Foi avaliada ainda a resistência à morte celular induzida por agentes apoptogênicos dos linfócitos dos pacientes. As células CD34+ e maduras mostraram expressão aumentada dos genes a1, mcl-1, noxa, c-flip e ciap-2. A expressão dos genes bid , bim-EL , fas e faim estava elevada e a dos genes bcl-2, bcl-xL e bax diminuída, somente nas células CD34+. Nos leucócitos, observou-se ainda maior nível de expressão do gene bok e expressão diminuída dos genes bcl-2, bcl-xL, bad, bax, faim, dr4, dr5 e trail. Os genes bcl-w, bak, bik, fasL e ciap-1 não mostraram diferença significativa na expressão em células CD34+ e leucócitos de pacientes e controles (p>0,05). Houve significância estatística nas correlações entre: expressão de dr5 e mutação JAK2 V617F; bim-EL com concentração de hemoglobina e com hematócrito; bcl-w e número de plaquetas; a1, bad, bax nas células CD34+ e bad em leucócitos com aumento do baço. Os linfócitos dos pacientes foram mais resistentes a apoptose mediada por ACT D 1uM e 5uM, ARA-C 25uM, CHX 25uM, VP-16 e VM-26 25uM. Houve correlação entre a percentagem de alelos mutados para JAK2 V617F e o perfil de resistência aos indutores de apoptose dos linfócitos dos pacientes a ACT D 1 uM e 5uM e STS 5uM. Observou-se ainda correlação estatística entre: expressão de a1 com ACT D 5 uM, CHX 50uM e ARA-C 25uM; bad com CHX 25uM e teniposídeo 25uM; bcl-2 com ACT D 5uM , CHX 50uM, STS 1uM e 5uM e VP-16 a25uM ; bid com ACT D 5uM e VM26 25uM; bik com ACT D 5uM , STS 1uM e 5uM e VM-26 25uM, ARAC 25uM e VP16 25Um; bim-EL com CHX 25uM e teniposídeo 25uM; bok com ACT D 5uM STS 1uM e 5uM, ARAC 25uM e etoposídeo 25uM; ciap-1 com ACT D 1uM e 5uM, STS 1uM e VP16 25uM; dr4 com ACT D 5uM, ARAC 25uM, VP16 a 25uM; dr5 com ACT D 5uM, STS 1uM, ARAC 25uM e VP16 25uM; faim com ACT D 5uM; mcl-1 com ARAC 25uM e STS 1uM; trail com ACT D 5uM. As proteínas A1, BAD e c-FLIP tiveram o mesmo perfil de expressão dos seus respectivos genes, contudo os níveis de expressão protéica para BCL-xL estavam aumentados e para BIM-EL diminuídos, resultados discordantes com os obtidos nas expressões gênicas. Em conjunto esses resultados sugerem que a maquinaria apoptótica está desregulada, o que poderia contribuir, pelo menos em parte, com a mieloacumulação observada no SP e MO dos pacientes com PV. / GASPAROTTO, E.P.L. Pro- and anti-apoptotic genes and proteins expression in bone marrow precursors and peripheral blood leukocytes in polycythemia vera patients. 185f. Thesis (Doctoral). Faculdade de Ciências Farmacêuticas de Ribeirão Preto Universidade de São Paulo, Ribeirão Preto, 2009. Polycythemia vera (PV) is a clonal myeloproliferative disease arising in a multipotent haematopoietic progenitor cell causing the accumulation of erythrocytes, leukocytes and platelets morphologically normal and their precursors in absence of a definable stimulus. Apoptosis deregulation seems to be one of the causes of erythroid cells accumulation without the need for erythropoietin. The JAK2 V617F mutation has been described as one of the events involved in pathophysiology of chronics myeloproliferative diseases, being related to worse prognosis. This mutation results in constitutive activation of the enzyme Janus kinase 2 and consequently of signaling pathways associated with cell stimulation mediated by cytokines and growth factors. This study aimed to investigate changes in expression of proteins and genes involved in regulation of apoptosis in PV patients without treatment. Was quantified for both gene and proteins expression of the Bcl-2 family and the extrinsic pathway of apoptosis members in precursor cells and leukocytes of patients and healthy subjects. Peripheral blood leukocytes of 12 patients and 14 controls were obtained by the Haes-sterile method. CD34+ precursor cells of these patients and 19 controls were separated by immunomagnetic column. Anti- and pro-apoptotic gene and protein expression detection was performed by real-time PCR and Western-blot techniques respectively. It also assessed the resistance to cellular death induced by apoptogenics agents in PV lymphocytes. CD34+ and mature cells showed increased expression of a1, mcl-1, noxa, c-flip and ciap-2. Gene expression of bid, bim-EL , fas e faim was high and to genes bcl-2, bcl-xL and bax diminished, only in CD34+ cells. In leukocytes, there was even greater level of expression of bok and reduced of bcl-2, bcl-xL, bad, bax, faim, dr4, dr5 and trail. Not significant difference was found to bcl-w, bak, bik, fasL and ciap-1 expression in CD34+ cells and leukocytes of patients and controls (p> 0.05). There was statistical correlation between: dr5 expression and JAK2 V617F mutation; bim-EL with hemoglobin concentration and hematócrito; bcl-w and platelets counts; a1, bad, bax in CD34+ cells and bad in leukocytes with enlarged spleen. PV lymphocytes were more resistant to apoptosis mediated by ACT D 1uM and 5uM, ARA-C 25uM, CHX 25uM, VP-16 25uM and VM-26 25uM. There was correlation between JAK2 V617F allele burden and resistance profile to apoptosis inducers in PV lymphocytes to ACT D 1uM and 5uM and STS 5uM. There was also correlation between: a1 expression with ACT D 5 uM, CHX 50uM and ARA-C 25uM; bad with CHX 25uM and teniposide 25uM; bcl-2 with ACT D 5uM, CHX 50uM, STS 1uM and 5uM and VP -16 25uM; bid with ACT D 5uM and VM-26 25uM; bik with ACT D 5uM, STS 1uM and 5uM, VM-26 25uM, ARA-C 25uM and VP-16 25uM; bim-EL with CHX 25uM and teniposide 25uM ; bok with ACT D 5uM, STS 1uM and 5uM, ARA-C 25uM and etoposide 25uM; ciap-1 with ACT D 1uM and 5uM, STS 1uM and VP-16 25uM; dr4 with ACT D 5uM, ARA-C 25uM, VP-16 25uM; dr5 with ACT D 5uM, STS 1uM, ARA-C 25uM and VP-16 25uM; faim with ACT D 5uM, mcl-1 with ARA-C 25uM and STS 1uM; trail with ACT D 5uM. The A1, BAD and c-FLIP proteins have the same profile of expression of their genes, however the levels of protein expression in BCL-xL were increased and decreased for BIM-EL, discordant results in related with the one obtained by gene expressions. Taken together these results suggest that apoptotic machinery is deregulated, which could contribute, at least in part, with myeloaccumulation observed in the SP and BM of PV patients.
349

Seeing is believing is doing? : On the role of future-oriented imagination in developing motivation for a sustainable lifestyle

Vingmarker, Viktoria January 2018 (has links)
The environmental and climate-related sustainability challenges facing the world today are complex, accelerating and urgent, and they call for change from multiple stake­hol­ders. While govern­ments, busi­nes­ses and other insti­tutions hold a high degree of responsibility for initia­ting and enabling the neces­sary change processes towards sustainable practices, so do also individuals and com­munities. Despite inno­va­tive change projects worldwide much remains to be done. However, making changes is difficult for many people, and even more so in situations characterised by uncertainty. In this study the role of future-oriented ima­gination in motivating changes towards sustainable lifestyles was explored through an experimental intervention design. Test group participants were exposed to a guided imagination of a sustainability scenario in the year 2028, followed by a writing assignment allowing them time to en­ga­ge with how they see their own future life. The control group spent the same amount of time listening to a guided present-day reflection and writing about their current everyday life. Pre- and post-intervention, both groups comp­leted lifestyle question­naires. The pre­-­­inter­­vention ques­tion­naire constituted the baseline assessment against which their post-inter­ven­tion questionnaire results (which was asking both groups to record the lifestyle decisions they thought they would be making in the year 2028 on the same behaviours as in the pre-intervention questionnaire) were compared to check for reported degrees of changes. Besides their expected lifestyle changes, their predicted future personal change and degree of pro-environmental self-identity in the year 2028 was measured. The results show that test group participants, who were exposed to the future-oriented imagination, reported a substantially higher degree of future lifestyle changes and future pro-environ­mental self-identity than the control group, as well as predicting a higher degree of future personal change. Future-oriented imagination seems to be a potent pathway for eliciting future-oriented sustainability enga­ge­ment while avoiding some of the risks of negative spillover. This suggests that future-oriented imagination can play an important role in developing motivation for sustainable lifestyle changes, and that it can be a complement to other psychological drivers for pro-environmental behaviours.
350

[en] DEMAND FORECAST: A CASE STUDY IN SUPPLY CHAIN / [pt] PREVISÃO DE DEMANDA: ESTUDO DE CASO NA CADEIA DE SUPRIMENTOS

ACHILES RAMOS RIBEIRO 08 November 2017 (has links)
[pt] A presente dissertação tem como principal objetivo a conceituação e apresentação das metodologias básicas de previsão de demanda e, a partir de um estudo de caso, a seleção da metodologia mais adequada e sua respectiva implantação. No primeiro capítulo é apresentada, além da importância do referido tema, a empresa selecionada para aplicação dos conceitos levantados, com a descrição de seus principais processos internos. No segundo capítulo foram abordados os conceitos de previsão de demanda e uma revisão dos principais modelos existentes. No capítulo seguinte, o problema que deverá ser tratado com a metodologia proposta é apresentado. Neste momento a metodologia conceituada é aplicada, através da seleção do método de previsão mais adequado ao caso estudado e respectiva modelagem, buscando melhorias em relação aos métodos de previsão existentes na empresa. Neste processo de modelagem utilizou-se o software Forecast Pro, um dos mais conceituados aplicativos de previsão de demanda no mercado. Por fim, na conclusão, avalia-se o impacto das mudanças propostas nos resultados da empresa, principalmente o aumento da precisão da previsão da demanda e, conseqüentemente, redução dos custos de importação e dos índices de stockout. / [en] The main objective of this dissertation is the presentation of basic forecasting methods and their implementation in a case study in supply chain. The first chapter points out the importance of forecasting in this context and describes the company selected for the case study and some of its internal processes that will be under scrutiny in the case study presented in this dissertation. The second chapter discusses the concepts and models of forecasting and reviews some of the major techniques in the field. In chapter three, standard forecasting techniques are apllied to real data (ten time series) from the company and select the most appropriate model in each case. Model adjustment is performed through the Forecast Pro software, one of the best-known products in the market. Chapter four contains the conclusions and the evaluation of the impacts of the proposed methodology on the company s results, especially the increased accuracy of forecasting and, consequently, the reduction in the import costs and stock out index.

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