I och med den teknologiska utvecklingen som sker i dagens samhälle blir hotellbranschen mer digitaliserad. Riskhantering får därför en större plats i organisationer som implementerar POS-system. Då dessa system konstrueras på många olika sätt och varierar i komplexitet bildas risker. Studien visar att det inte finns ett specifikt och korrekt tillvägagångssätt för att riskhanteringen ska bli fulländad. Hotellet behöver därför en övergripande strategi för hur risker ska hanteras för att överleva på längre sikt. Syftet med studien var att ta fram ett förslag på hur riskhantering kan organiseras vid ett byte av ett nytt POS-system samt ge författarna en förståelse för de risker som kan identifieras och hur dessa kan hanteras. För att uppfylla syftet undersöktes ett specifikt företags implementering av ett nytt POS-system och de risker som medföljde. Genom en kvalitativ undersökning visar studien att riskhantering handlar om att identifiera risker för att minska sannolikheten och dess konsekvens. Ett genomgående tema har visat sig vara att personalens engagemang är en tydlig risk i systembytet. Det leder till att ledningen blir en central del i att ge stöd åt personalen. För att lyckas göra detta i praktiken har studien resulterat i att riskidentifiering, riskvärdering, åtgärder och uppföljning är stegen för ett framgångsrikt införande. Nyckelord: Riskhantering, implementationsrisker, implementering, POS-system, molnbaserat system, hotellbranschen. / With the technological development taking place in today's society, the hotel industry becomes more digitized. Therefore risk management gets a bigger place in organizations that implement POS-systems. Since these systems is constructed in different ways and varies in complexity risks are formed. The study shows that there is no specific and correct approach for risk management to be accomplished. The hotel therefore needs an overall strategy for how risks should be managed in order to survive in the longer term.The purpose of the study was to produce a proposal on how risk management can be organized in the event of a change of a new POS system and give the authors an understanding of the risks that can be identified and how these can be managed. To fulfill the purpose, a specific company's implementation of a new POS system and the risks that were included were examined. Through a qualitative study, the study shows that risk management is about identifying risks in order to reduce the probability and its consequence. A common theme has been that the staff's commitment is a clear risk in the system change. This leads to the management becoming a central part of providing support to the staff. In order to succeed in this, the study has resulted in risk identification, risk assessment, actions and follow-up being the steps for successful introduction.Key words: Risk management, implementation risks, implementation, POS-system, cloud computing, hotel industry.

Los modelos de sobrevivencia o duración son útiles para modelar la distribución subyacente del periodo en el que ocurre el evento específico. El presente artículo analiza la duración de la tasa de referencia del Banco Central de Reserva del Perú (BCRP) y sus determinantes, haciendo uso de los modelos de sobrevivencia para un análisis que incluye los riesgos competitivos. En presencia de riesgos competitivos, el enfoque convencional de la duración puede obtener resultados sesgados y no interpretables. Por lo que, siguiendo la propuesta inicial de Gutiérrez y Lozano (2010), se recurre al análisis de riesgos competitivos a fin de analizar la duración entre los cambios de tasa de política monetaria en Perú, tomando en cuenta los dos escenarios posibles (incrementos y recortes) y magnitudes (25 pb y más de 25 pb); así como las variables que inciden en su comportamiento. Las regresiones bajo riesgos competitivos sugieren un comportamiento asimétrico en lo que respecta a las variables que definen los cambios de la tasa de referencia (incrementos o recortes). Variables como la inflación, producto y la tasa de referencia del periodo afectan al riesgo de ambos estados; sin embargo, un recorte en la tasa de referencia es también determinado por la brecha de la inflación local respecto a la extranjera y la duración de la tasa de referencia previa. En particular, los resultados son consistentes con una economía regida bajo el marco de metas de inflación. Se extrae que, el BCRP puede mantener la tasa de referencia en un nivel constante hasta que las variables de interés, como la inflación, se encuentren en condiciones críticas. Los resultados de las pruebas también confirman que la duración de tasas con cambios pequeños y grandes no son estadísticamente diferentes en las subidas de tasas. / Survival or duration models are useful for modeling the underlying distribution of the period in which the specific event occurs. This article analyzes the duration of the monetary policy rate of Peru and its determinants, in base of survival models including competing risks. In the presence of competing risks, the conventional duration method could get biased and uninterpretable results. Therefore, following the initial proposal of Gutierrez and Lozano (2010), this article includes competitive risks in order to analyze the duration between changes in the monetary policy rate of Peru, taking into account two possible scenarios, rate hikes and rate cuts, and magnitudes (25 bp and more than 25 bp); as well as the variables that affect their behavior. The regressions under competing risks suggest an asymmetric behavior between the variables that define the specific event of the monetary policy rate (increases or decreases). The models for rate hikes and rate cuts agree in finding the influences of variables, in the risk of both specific events: inflation, domestic product and the monetary policy rate. However, a cut in the monetary policy rate is also determined by the gap between local and US inflation and the duration of the previous rate. The results are consistent with an economy under the inflation targeting framework. As an inference, the Central Reserve Bank of Peru can maintain the reference rate at a constant level until the variables of interest, such as inflation, are in critical conditions. Test results also confirm that the duration of rates with small and large changes are not statistically different in rate hikes. / Trabajo de investigación

Le contrôle optimal stochastique (en temps discret) s'intéresse aux problèmes de décisions séquentielles sous incertitude. Les applications conduisent à des problèmes d'optimisation degrande taille. En réduisant leur taille, les méthodes de décomposition permettent le calcul numérique des solutions. Nous distinguons ici deux formes de décomposition. La emph{décomposition chaînée}, comme la Programmation Dynamique, résout successivement, des sous-problèmes de petite taille. La décomposition parallèle, comme le Progressive Hedging, consiste à résoudre itérativement et parallèlement les sous-problèmes, coordonnés par un algorithme maître. Dans la première partie de ce manuscrit, Dynamic Programming: Risk and Convexity, nous nous intéressons à la décomposition chaînée, en particulier temporelle, connue sous le nom de Programmation Dynamique. Dans le chapitre 2, nous étendons le cas traditionnel, risque-neutre, de la somme en temps des coûts, à un cadre plus général pour lequel nous établissons des résultats de cohérence temporelle. Dans le chapitre 3, nous étendons le résultat de convergence de l'algorithme SDDP (Stochastic Dual Dynamic Programming Algorithm) au cas où les fonctions de coûts (convexes) ne sont plus polyhédrales. Puis, nous nous tournons vers la décomposition parallèle, en particulier autour des méthodes de décomposition obtenues en dualisant les contraintes (contraintes spatiales presque sûres, ou de non-anticipativité). Dans la seconde partie de ce manuscrit, Duality in Stochastic Optimization, nous commençons par souligner que de telles contraintes peuvent soulever des problèmes de dualité délicats (chapitre 4).Nous établissons un résultat de dualité dans les espaces pairés $Bp{mathrm{L}^infty,mathrm{L}^1}$ au chapitre 5. Finalement, au chapitre 6, nous montrons un résultat de convergence de l'algorithme d'Uzawa dans $mathrm{L}^inftyp{Omega,cF,PP;RR^n}$, qui requière l'existence d'un multiplicateur optimal. La troisième partie de ce manuscrit, Stochastic Spatial Decomposition Methods, est consacrée à l'algorithme connu sous le nom de DADP (Dual Approximate Dynamic Programming Algorithm). Au chapitre 7, nous montrons qu'une suite de problèmes d'optimisation où une contrainte presque sûre est relaxée en une contrainte en espérance conditionnelle épi-converge vers le problème original si la suite des tribus converge vers la tribu globale. Finalement, au chapitre 8, nous présentons l'algorithme DADP, des interprétations, et des résultats de convergence basés sur la seconde partie du manuscrit / Stochastic optimal control addresses sequential decision-making under uncertainty. As applications leads to large-size optimization problems, we count on decomposition methods to tackle their mathematical analysis and their numerical resolution. We distinguish two forms of decomposition. In chained decomposition, like Dynamic Programming, the original problemis solved by means of successive smaller subproblems, solved one after theother. In parallel decomposition, like Progressive Hedging, the original problemis solved by means of parallel smaller subproblems, coordinated and updated by amaster algorithm. In the first part of this manuscript, Dynamic Programming: Risk and Convexity, we focus on chained decomposition; we address the well known time decomposition that constitutes Dynamic Programming with two questions. In Chapter 2, we extend the traditional additive in time and risk neutral setting to more general ones for which we establish time-consistency. In Chapter 3, we prove a convergence result for the Stochastic Dual Dynamic Programming Algorithm in the case where (convex) cost functions are no longer polyhedral. Then, we turn to parallel decomposition, especially decomposition methods obtained by dualizing constraints (spatial or non-anticipative). In the second part of this manuscript, Duality in Stochastic Optimization, we first point out that such constraints lead to delicate duality issues (Chapter 4).We establish a duality result in the pairing $Bp{mathrm{L}^infty,mathrm{L}^1}$ in Chapter 5. Finally, in Chapter 6, we prove the convergence of the Uzawa Algorithm in~$mathrm{L}^inftyp{Omega,cF,PP;RR^n}$.The third part of this manuscript, Stochastic Spatial Decomposition Methods, is devoted to the so-called Dual Approximate Dynamic Programming Algorithm. In Chapter 7, we prove that a sequence of relaxed optimization problems epiconverges to the original one, where almost sure constraints are replaced by weaker conditional expectation ones and that corresponding $sigma$-fields converge. In Chapter 8, we give theoretical foundations and interpretations to the Dual Approximate Dynamic Programming Algorithm

Risks associated with fluctuating exchange rates affect investment cost and investor profitability. Approximately 50% of firms in emerging markets have significant exposure to fluctuating exchange rates. Grounded in principal-agent theory (PAT), the purpose of this case study was to explore hedging strategies to mitigate risks of fluctuating exchange rates. The population comprised a census sampling of 12 bank hedgers (risk managers and controllers) in Dar es Salaam in Tanzania, East Africa. Data collection involved semistructured interviews, casual observations of the work environment, and analysis of reports including risk management, internal control, and compliance policies. Data were analyzed by coding and grouping narrative segments and significant statements into themes of participants' experience in hedging exchange rate risks. Method triangulation and member checking were used to increase the trustworthiness of interpretations. Four themes emerged directly related to the PAT conceptual framework: training and skills development, management of hedging strategies and contracts, corporate governance, and benefits to management and the organization through effective compensation programs. A focus on training and skill development helped develop appropriate exchange rate hedging strategies and corporate governance improved compliance with laws, regulations, and policies. The benefits of effective hedging strategies include a reduction in cost and increase in profitability. The findings may help improve the soundness of professional hedging practices, which will increase the stability of the Tanzanian banking system.

Résumé :Dans un contexte de modernisation de l'Etat, les structures publiques doivent faire face à de nombreuses mutations organisationnelles autant qu'à une montée des risques psychosociaux. A partir des travaux conduits sur l'hypermodernité que nous complétons par la théorie de la préservation des ressources, nous cherchons à identifier certains enjeux en matière de management public.Cette recherche, réalisée à partir d'une étude qualitative menée auprès de trois administrations déconcentrées de l'Etat, examine la dynamique entre trois variables : les facteurs de risques psychosociaux, les ressources disponibles ainsi que les valeurs professionnelles.L'analyse révèle, d'une part, l'existence de risques conformes à ceux dentifiés dans les entreprises privées, d'autre part, la présence de ressources régulatrices liées à la qualité des relations avec les pairs et à la nature des missions autant qu'aux possibilités de développement et, enfin, des valeurs relatives à la motivation à l'égard du service public.D'une manière générale, l'interprétation des données indique que les valeurs professionnelles se heurtent fréquemment à la logique du new management public qui sous-tend les nouveaux modes de production publique. Cependant, loin de rester passifs, les agents se tournent vers d'autres valeurs "refuges", telles l'utilité de leur travail ou la satisfaction des usagers, qui agissent comme de nouvelles ressources dans un contexte à l'avenir incertain. / Abstract :In a context of modernization of the state, public structures have to face many organizational changes as well as a rise in psychosocial risks. From the works conducted on hypermodernity that we supplement with the theory of the preservation of resources, we seek to identify some issues in public management. This research, based on a qualitative study conducted among three decentralized state administrations, examines the dynamics between three variables: psychosocial risk factors, available resources and professional values. The analysis reveals, on the one hand, the existence of risksconsistent with those identified in private companies, on the other hand, the presence of regulatory resources related to the quality of relations with peers and the nature of missions as much as development opportunities; and, finally, values relating to motivation for public service. In general terms, the interpretation of the data indicates that professional values frequently come up against the logic of the new public management that underpins the new modes of public production. However, far from being passive, agents are turning to other "safe haven" values, such as the usefulness of their work or the satisfaction of users, who act as new resources in a context of uncertain future.

Purpose: This study aims to investigate Information Systems (IS) project risks in the South African public sector, and to develop a systemic model of the most dominant risks encountered and identify the interrelationships that exist between these risks. Design and methodology: The study is conducted through the application of Interactive Management (IM) to identify IS project risks and structure the interrelationships between them. The IM methodology comprises of four key phases: Idea Generation, Idea Clarification, Idea Structuring, and Interpretation. A workshop with a group of participants is required to carry out an IM intervention successfully. During the Idea Generation phase, participants are asked a triggering question to elicit ideas, which are then clarified and structured in the subsequent phases of IM before final interpretation. Findings: In the Idea Generation phase, six IM participants working on public sector IS projects were asked a triggering question to elicit dominant IS project risks they perceive to be important. The participants initially identified 34 IS project risks, which were reduced to 24 after they brainstormed their relevance during the Idea Clarification phase. Further deliberations led to the participants removing another risk during the Idea Structuring phase. During the Idea Structuring phase, the remaining 23 risks were structured to produce an Interpretive Structural Modelling (ISM) digraph with the aid of software. The ISM digraph revealed three risk factors as the primary drivers of IS project risks in the public sector, specifically, in the context of this study. These risks are ‘lack of consultation with users', ‘budget cuts' and ‘excessive red tape'. Value of study: This research contributes to the following: (1) the existing knowledge-base on public sector IS project risk management; (2) the focus on a soft systemic approach such as IM helps in uncovering context-specific issues on IS project risks that may not be available in extant literature; and (3) the collaborative learning process of the IM approach adds to research on the sustainability of complex IS projects implemented in the public sector.

Indiana University-Purdue University Indianapolis (IUPUI) / Observational studies and clinical trials with time-to-event data frequently involve multiple event types, known as competing risks. The cumulative incidence function (CIF) is a particularly useful parameter as it explicitly quantifies clinical prognosis. Common issues in competing risks data analysis on the CIF include interval censoring, missing event types, and left truncation. Interval censoring occurs when the event time is not observed but is only known to lie between two observation times, such as clinic visits. Left truncation, also known as delayed entry, is the phenomenon where certain participants enter the study after the onset of disease under study. These individuals with an event prior to their potential study entry time are not included in the analysis and this can induce selection bias. In order to address unmet needs in appropriate methods and software for competing risks data analysis, this thesis focuses the following development of application and methods. First, we develop a convenient and exible tool, the R package intccr, that performs semiparametric regression analysis on the CIF for interval-censored competing risks data. Second, we adopt the augmented inverse probability weighting method to deal with both interval censoring and missing event types. We show that the resulting estimates are consistent and double robust. We illustrate this method using data from the East-African International Epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS (IeDEA EA) where a significant portion of the event types is missing. Last, we develop an estimation method for semiparametric analysis on the CIF for competing risks data subject to both interval censoring and left truncation. This method is applied to the Indianapolis-Ibadan Dementia Project to identify prognostic factors of dementia in elder adults. Overall, the methods developed here are incorporated in the R package intccr. / 2021-05-06

Indiana University-Purdue University Indianapolis (IUPUI) / It is generally of interest to explore if the risk of death would be modified by medical conditions (e.g., illness) that have occurred prior. This situation gives rise to semicompeting risks data, which are a mixture of competing risks and progressive state data. This type of data occurs when a non-terminal event can be censored by a well-defined terminal event, but not vice versa. In the first part of this dissertation, the shared gamma-frailty conditional Markov model (GFCMM) is adopted because it bridges the copula models and illness-death models. Maximum likelihood estimation methodology has been proposed in the literature. However, we found through numerical experiments that the unrestricted model sometimes yields nonparametric biased estimation. Hence a practical guideline is provided for using the GFCMM that includes (i) a score test to assess whether the restricted model, which does not exhibit estimation problems, is reasonable under a proportional hazards assumption, and (ii) a graphical illustration to evaluate whether the unrestricted model yields nonparametric estimation with substantial bias for cases where the test provides a statistical significant result against the restricted model. However, the scientific question of interest that whether the status of non-terminal event alters the risk to terminal event can only be partially addressed based on the aforementioned approach. Therefore in the second part of this dissertation, we adopt a Markov illness-death model, whose transition intensities are essentially equivalent to the marginal hazards defined in GFCMM, but with different interpretations; we develop three nonparametric tests, including a linear test, a Kolmogorov-Smirnov-type test, and a L2-distance-type test, to directly compare the two transition intensities under consideration. The asymptotic properties of the proposed test statistics are established using empirical process theory. The performance of these tests in nite samples is numerically evaluated through extensive simulation studies. All three tests provide similar power levels with non-crossing curves of cumulative transition intensities, while the linear test is suboptimal when the curves cross. Eventually, the proposed tests successfully address the scientific question of interest. This research is applied to Indianapolis-Ibadan Dementia Project (IIDP) to explore whether dementia occurrence changes mortality risk. / 2022-05-06

The work is focused on the analysis of operational risks in a construction company, which are associated with the implementation of constructions. In the individual chapters, I focused on the definition of operational risks and counter-risk measures. I defined the project, types of projects, project management and principles of project management. I described the construction company, its organizational structure and operational activities. I analyzed the risks in the construction company, risk management and risk control. Finally, I listed the criteria and options for achieving the goals and success of the construction company. The output of the work are recommendations of procedures to eliminate risks and achieve business goals. The benefit is an increase in the company's competitiveness.

With the convergence of banking services and mobile technologies, users are able to conduct banking services at any place and at any time through mobile banking (Gu, Lee&Suh, 2009). This research examines the factors influencing the adoption of mobile banking by the Bottom of the Pyramid (BOP) in South Africa, with a special focus on trust, perceived cost and perceived risk including the facets of perceived risks: performance risk, security/privacy risk, time risk, social risk and financial risk. The research model includes the original variables of extended technology acceptance model (TAM2) (Venkatesh&Davis, 2000). Data from this study was collected through a physical hardcopy survey in townships around Gauteng. The research has found that customers in the BOP will consider adopting mobile banking as long as it is perceived to be useful and perceived to be easy to use. But the most critical factor for the customer is cost; the service should be affordable. Furthermore, the mobile banking service providers, both the banks and mobile network providers, should be trusted. Trust was found to be significantly negatively correlated to perceived risk. Thus, trust plays a role in risk mitigation and in enhancing customer loyalty. Copyright / Dissertation (MBA)--University of Pretoria, 2010. / Gordon Institute of Business Science (GIBS) / unrestricted