Questa tesi include tre capitoli che si concentrano sulle politiche pubbliche e la tutela della salute. Il primo capitolo esamina l’effetto dell’incremento delle aliquote dell’IVA su alcune bevande sul loro consumo. I risultati dell’analisi empirica suggeriscono che l'aumento dell'aliquota IVA ha ridotto il consumo di alcolici, birra e bevande gassate, mentre l’effetto sul consumo di vino non è statisticamente significativo. Tuttavia, questo risultato generale cambia se si considerano sotto-gruppi di individui. Il secondo capitolo studia l’impatto del salario minimo sulla salute della popolazione cinese. Le stime indicano che i salari minimi reali sono negativamente e significativamente correlati con lo stato di salute della popolazione sia nel breve che nel lungo periodo, un risultato che potrebbe essere spiegato dalle condizioni di lavoro più stressanti conseguenti all’introduzione di un salario minimo più elevato. Infine, il terzo capitolo analizza gli effetti dei meccanismi di incentivazione sui comportamenti degli operatori sanitari del settore delle cure primarie nell’ambito della gestione dell'ipertensione. La nostra indagine empirica suggerisce che gli incentivi finanziari negativi potrebbero motivare gli operatori sanitari a migliorare la qualità dei servizi legati alla gestione dell'ipertensione, mentre né gli incentivi finanziari né diverse modalità di valutazione delle prestazioni sembrano influenzare la qualità dei servizi. / This dissertation includes three chapters which focus on the relationship between public policies and healthcare. The first chapter examines whether tax policy is effective in changing the unhealthy drinking behaviours of individuals. My findings suggest that the VAT rate increase is effective in reducing the consumption of spirits, beer and carbonated beverages, while it is not effective for wine. However, this general result change when looking at sub-groups of individuals. The second chapter studies how real minimum wages affect population health in China. I conclude that real minimum wages are negatively and significantly related to population health, a result which might be explained by the role of more stressful working conditions as a consequence of a higher minimum wage. Finally, the third chapter analyses the effects of incentive mechanisms on the behaviours of primary health workers and the subsequent effects on the quality of hypertension management. The empirical investigation suggests that negative financial incentives could motivate primary health workers and improve the quality of hypertension management. However, neither positive financial incentives nor different modes of performance evaluation are significantly related to the quality of hypertension management.

內生經濟成長認為政府支出結構與收入結構均會影響恆定狀態成長率之觀點和事實是否一致呢？許多先前相關之研究需被修正，因為這些研究在政府預算限制式的設定並不完全，導致實證之結果產生偏誤。本文除了將討論忽略這些偏誤所會導致之影響外，進一步將以One-Way與TwO-Way的固定效果與隨機效果模型來進行估計，並修正先前研究所發生之問題，然後找出強力的證據來支持Barro模型（1990）所做的預測。本文的樣本資料取自東亞經濟前瞻與亞洲開發銀行，以亞洲新、舊四小龍，加上申國，共九個國家的17年時間序列資料所形成的揉合資料（pooling data）為實證對象。分析結果發現在考慮異質性與同期相關性下，若採用似無相關迴歸技巧來對One-Way固定效果模型進行估計，則：（1）不論政府是以租稅收入或是非租稅收入作為融通財源，資本性支出的增加均會提高經濟成長率，經常性支出的增加則均會對經濟成長率造成負面影響；（2）在政府以租稅收入為融通來源下，非租稅收入增加將會降低經濟成長率；若政府以非租稅收入作為融通之財源，則此時租稅收入之增加將會降低經濟成長。 〔關鍵字〕資本支出、經常支出、同期相關性（Contemporaneous correlation）、異質性（HetereSkedaStiCity）、One-Way fixed（random）effect model、Two-way fixed（random）effect model、似無相關迴歸（Seemingly unrelated regression）

本研究以不動產估價技術規則第19條第7項與第20條之規定，引用相似無關迴歸模式、多變量迴歸模式與典型相關分析等計量模式，對金融機構所做的擔保品估價進行驗證、預測及控制分析。 擔保品估價中會產生兩價，即擔保品的評估市場價格與評估擔保值（價），大部分的人都認為兩價存在一個比率關係。傳統的迴歸分析估價模式係由一組價格影響因素影響一個不動產價格，上述情形是否可能由同一組價格影響因素影響兩個不動產價格？本研究實證結果顯示，在95％統計信賴水準下，有兩個不動產價格受同一組價格因素影響的結果。既然驗證存在同一組價格影響因素影響兩個不動產價格，是否有更具效率的計量估價模式呢？典型相關分析係透過兩組變項之相關關係建構計量模式，除可再度驗證同一組價格影響因素影響兩個不動產價格，並可如同因素分析或主成份分析的功能，對兩組變項各做變項縮減的工作，達到對變項去蕪存菁的效果。 / This thesis is based on Article 19 No 7 and Article 20 of the Real Estate Appraisal Regulation. Seemingly Unrelated Regression Model, Multivariate Regression Model and Econometric Model and so on econometric model are applied. In addition, collateral valuations done by financial institutions are verified, predicted and analyzed. In collateral valuations, there are two-value references: assessed market value and assessed accommodation value. Majority believe that there is a ratio between these two values. The traditional regression analysis of the valuation model is having one set of pricing factors to have impact on the real estate price. However, is it possible that one set of pricing factors will affect two real estate prices? The findings approve that, under statistical confidence level with 95%, more than two real estate prices can be influenced by one set of pricing factors. Further more, this thesis also examines if there are other econometric valuation models to be applied? The canonical correlation analysis is to build a calculation model to analyze correlation between two variables. Other than examining one set of pricing factors can influence two real estate prices, this analysis also provides a similar function of the factor analysis or principal analysis to reduce variables caused by two sets of variable.

This thesis consists of three chapters on economic and econometric applications of Bayesian parameter estimation and model comparison. The first two chapters study the incidental parameter problem mainly under a linear autoregressive (AR) panel data model with fixed effect. The first chapter investigates the problem from a model comparison perspective. The major finding in the first chapter is that consistency in parameter estimation and model selection are interrelated. The reparameterization of the fixed effect parameter proposed by Lancaster (2002) may not provide a valid solution to the incidental parameter problem if the wrong set of exogenous regressors are included. To estimate the model consistently and to measure its goodness of fit, the Bayes factor is found to be more preferable for model comparson than the Bayesian information criterion based on the biased maximum likelihood estimates. When the model uncertainty is substantial, Bayesian model averaging is recommended. The method is applied to study the relationship between financial development and economic growth. The second chapter proposes a correction function approach to solve the incidental parameter problem. It is discovered that the correction function exists for the linear AR panel model of order p when the model is stationary with strictly exogenous regressors. MCMC algorithms are developed for parameter estimation and to calculate the Bayes factor for model comparison. The last chapter studies how stock return's predictability and model uncertainty affect a rational buy-and-hold investor's decision to allocate her wealth for different lengths of investment horizons in the UK market. The FTSE All-Share Index is treated as the risky asset, and the UK Treasury bill as the riskless asset in forming the investor's portfolio. Bayesian methods are employed to identify the most powerful predictors by accounting for model uncertainty. It is found that though stock return predictability is weak, it can still affect the investor's optimal portfolio decisions over different investment horizons.

我們利用「台灣地區中老年身心社會生活狀況長期追蹤調查研究」這份資料，以似無關迴歸(Seemingly Unrelated Regression)模型，探討老人的資產持有行為，發現：一般老年人口並不偏好持有股票，持有行為相當少見，但高教育、高所得、都市化地區（尤其是直轄市）的老人，可能分別因為高教育程度、所得效果影響、都市地區資訊流通快速等因素，使得這類型老人明顯較願意持有股票。 另一方面，在台灣，不動產扮演的角色特殊，傳統認為其與家族宗系連結，在持有行為上並非只從風險報酬觀點去看待，通常還與其他考量有關，因此在持有行為上有其特殊模式。 同時，我們也發現，老人婚姻關係的消解(dissolution)，例如離婚/分居，將對資產持有產生負面的財富效果影響，使得這類型老人各項資產的持有都顯著低於已婚/同居的老人；而健康情形越差的老人持有的不動產與存款也越少，應與此類老人有較高的醫療與保健支出，造成負面的財富效果有關。 除此之外，台灣老人平均而言，持有的不動產會隨年紀降低，但持有的存款會隨年紀而上升，主要與台灣老人隨著年紀上升，所得逐漸不足以維生，產生了反儲蓄(dissave)不動產的現象，有所關聯。我們認為台灣確實存在老人「以房養老」的現象。 最後，我們認為很重要的一點是，台灣老人資產的持有行為，並不是使用傳統的風險報酬概念就能解釋，我們必須考量其他可能因素，才能有效分析台灣老人所表現出來的資產持有行為。 / The general elders don’t prefer to hold stocks, but the elders of high-level education, the elders of high-level income and the elders in metropolis are more willing to hold stocks. Besides, the real estate plays a special role. People regard that it is linked up with the family or kindred. We also find out that the dissolution of relationship in elder’s marriage causes negative wealth effect on holding assets. The similar effect exists in much unhealthy elders. The elders hold less real estate as they getting older, but hold more stocks. It might due to that elders dissave their real estate. Finally, besides perspective of risk-reward, it might appropriate that think the behavior of holding assets in other view-points.

This dissertation consists of three essays wherein tools of financial econometrics are used to study the three aspects of farmland valuation puzzle: short-term boom-bust cycles, overpricing of farmland, and inconclusive effects of direct government payments. Essay I addresses the causes of unexplained short-term boom-bust cycles in farmland values in a dynamic land pricing model (DLPM). The analysis finds that gross return rate of farmland asset decreases as the farmland asset level increases, and that the diminishing return function of farmland asset contributes to the boom-bust cycles in farmland values. Furthermore, it is mathematically proved that land values are potentially unstable under diminishing return functions. We also find that intertemporal elasticity of substitution, risk aversion, and transaction costs are important determinants of farmland asset values. Essay II examines the apparent overpricing of farmland by decomposing the forecast error variance of farmland prices into forward looking and backward looking components. The analysis finds that in the short run, the forward looking Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) portion of the forecast errors are significantly higher in a boom or bust stage than in a stable stage. This shows that the farmland market absorbs economic information in a discriminative manner according to the stability of the market, and the market (and actors therein) responds to new information gradually as suggested by the theory. This helps to explain the overpricing of farmland, but this explanation works primarily in the short run. Finally, essay III investigates the duel effects of direct government payments and climate change on farmland values. This study uses a smooth coefficient semi-parametric panel data model. The analysis finds that land valuation is affected by climate change and government payments, both through discounted revenues and through effects on the risk aversion of land owners. This essay shows that including heterogeneous risk aversion is an efficient way to mitigate the impacts of misspecifications in a DLPM, and that precipitation is a good explanatory variable. In particular, precipitation affects land values in a bimodal manner, indicating that farmland prices could have multiple peaks in precipitation due to adaption through crop selection and technology alternation.

The impact of political and economic events on the asset pricing model described by the arbitrage pricing theory (APTM) was examined in order to establish if they had caused any changes in its specification. It was concluded that the APTM is not stationary and that it must be continuously tested before it can be used as political and economic events can change its specification. It was also found that political events had a more direct effect on the specification of the APTM, in that their effect is more immediate, than did economic events, which influenced the APTM by first influencing the economic environment in which it operated. The conventional approach that would have evaluated important political and economic events, case by case, to determine whether they affected the linear factor model (LFM), and subsequently the APTM, could not be used since no correlation was found between the pricing of a risk factor in the LFM and its subsequent pricing in the APTM. A new approach was then followed in which a correlation with a political or economic event was sought whenever a change was detected in the specification of the APTM. This was achieved by first finding the best subset LFM, chosen for producing the highest adjusted R2 , month by month, over 87 periods from 20 October1991 to 21 June 1998, using a combination of nine prespecified risk factors (five of which were proxies for economic events and one for political events). Multivariate analysis techniques were then used to establish which risk factors were priced most often during the three equal subperiods into which the 87 periods were broken up. Using the above methodology, the researcher was able to conclude that political events changed the specification of the APTM in late 1991. After the national elections in April 1994 it was found that the acceptance of South Africa into the world economic community had again changed the specification of the APTM and the two most important factors were proxies for economic events. / Business Leadership / DBL

隨著國際化的發展，企業為降低財務報表重編的相關成本，採用全球統一的財務會計準則已成趨勢。近年來，我國之財務會計準則委員會陸續修訂了若干公報，其中之一為第十號公報。該公報修訂至生效時期，正值全球金融風暴。因此，政府對實施該公報的時機決策反覆，而企業界、會計界及媒體皆對該公報相當關注。 本研究旨在探討新十號公報對整體市場、各產業及不同特性公司之影響。本研究採用事件研究法，以似乎不相關迴歸模式，分析我國公司在該公報修訂期間及政府實施決策期間之股票累積平均異常報酬率。 研究結果指出，在新十號公報修訂期間，市場對該公報的反應較為負面；在政府政策反覆期間，市場反應則有正有負。各產業部份，電子業於該公報修訂初期受影響較大，推論原因為電子業固定成本高、毛利較低之緣故；而在該公報政府實施決策階段則受影響較小，推論原因為大部分電子業公司均做好因應措施。公司特性部分，大公司對該公報愈持正面態度；老公司則較排斥該公報；前三年度虧損的公司，受該公報影響較小；而成長機會較多之公司，在該公報制定初期受影響較大，但於政府實施決策階段反而受影響較小。 / To pursue globalization, it has been a trend for firms to gradually adopt the International Accounting Standards; that would help reduce the costs related to cross-border restatement of financial reports. To converge with the International Accounting Standards, the Financial Accounting Standards of Taiwan has been revised in recent years. One of the revised standards is the new SFAS No. 10. That revision took place amid the financial crisis. Before the new standard became effective, the government in Taiwan swung on the timing issue of formal adoption. As a result, firms, practitioners, and the media all paid close attention to the new SFAS No. 10. This study aims to examine the revision and adoption decision effects of the new SFAS No. 10 on the stock market, industries, and firms. Firm characteristics that could be factors of the reaction were also examined. This research is an event study using seemingly unrelated regression to analyze the accumulated average abnormal returns of stocks of listed companies in Taiwan. The empirical results are as follows. First, the whole market mostly reacted negatively in the standard revision period and in either way during the standard adoption decision period. Next, in the standard revision period, the electronic industry also reacted negatively, as it would be more affected because of its higher fixed cost and lower gross profit. Yet, in the adoption decision period, the electronic industry was less affected likely because most electronics firms were ready for adoption. Thirdly, as to firm characteristics, bigger firms were willing to adopt the new standard, but older firms were not so. In addition, firms that had losses in the previous three years were less affected by the new standard. Finally, firms that had greater growth opportunities were more affected in the early period of standard revision but became less affected in the adoption decision period.

本研究試圖瞭解投資人所關心的財務資訊，是否真能帶來超額報酬，亦即探討上市公司股票報酬率與各財務資訊之間的關係，包括每股盈餘成長率及益本比、市價淨值比、自由現金流量相關變數對長期股票報酬之影響，並嘗試對各變數給予經濟上的解釋。 　　其中並試圖找出財務資訊究竟是在何時反應於股票報酬與超額報酬上，因此將股票報酬與超額報酬以領先財務資訊一季、與財務資訊同季及落後財務資訊一季等三個時點加以衡量，並以表面無關迴歸模式(Seemingly Unrelated Regression model ; SUR)與混合橫斷面及縱斷面之迴歸模式進行統計分析。 　　結果發現益本比及每股盈餘成長率與股票報酬及超額報酬的關係並不顯著；市價淨值比與落後一季的股價報酬具有顯著的負相關，而與超額報酬不論衡量時點為何均存在有顯著正相關；自由現金流量與股價報酬及額報酬均無顯著關係；毛現金流量與經濟利益率與股價報酬在部分產業中具有顯著關係，而與當期超額股價報酬則存在顯著的關係，惟影響符號不一致。此外各自變數對於股票超額報酬的關連性較自變數與股票報酬間具有較顯著的關係。

The impact of political and economic events on the asset pricing model described by the arbitrage pricing theory (APTM) was examined in order to establish if they had caused any changes in its specification. It was concluded that the APTM is not stationary and that it must be continuously tested before it can be used as political and economic events can change its specification. It was also found that political events had a more direct effect on the specification of the APTM, in that their effect is more immediate, than did economic events, which influenced the APTM by first influencing the economic environment in which it operated. The conventional approach that would have evaluated important political and economic events, case by case, to determine whether they affected the linear factor model (LFM), and subsequently the APTM, could not be used since no correlation was found between the pricing of a risk factor in the LFM and its subsequent pricing in the APTM. A new approach was then followed in which a correlation with a political or economic event was sought whenever a change was detected in the specification of the APTM. This was achieved by first finding the best subset LFM, chosen for producing the highest adjusted R2 , month by month, over 87 periods from 20 October1991 to 21 June 1998, using a combination of nine prespecified risk factors (five of which were proxies for economic events and one for political events). Multivariate analysis techniques were then used to establish which risk factors were priced most often during the three equal subperiods into which the 87 periods were broken up. Using the above methodology, the researcher was able to conclude that political events changed the specification of the APTM in late 1991. After the national elections in April 1994 it was found that the acceptance of South Africa into the world economic community had again changed the specification of the APTM and the two most important factors were proxies for economic events. / Business Leadership / DBL