Nuvarande redovisningsregler och principer under IFRS är till viss del öppna för subjektiva bedömningar om hur kostnader och intäkter ska redovisas. Denna subjektivitet går stundom under benämningen resultatmanipulering och innebär då att företagets resultat antingen justeras i positiv eller negativ riktning beroende på bakomliggande incitament. De subjektiva valen kan delas in i operationella åtgärder eller diskretionära periodiseringar, beroende på om de påverkar kassaflödet eller ej. Denna studie fokuserar på hur redovisningsreglerna kan användas för att uppnå resultatmanipulering och inriktas därför på de diskretionära periodiseringarna. Forskning har påvisat att möjligheten till resultatmanipulering är särskilt påtaglig i samband med att företag byter vd. Det baseras på teorierna om horisontproblemet och stålbad, att vd:n i varje given situation ämnar uppnå maximal personlig vinning. Då tidigare studier sällan undersökt den svenska marknaden avser vi uppnå kontribution om hur teorierna om resultatmanipulering är applicerbara under svenska regelverk och normer, från dess att IFRS infördes till dags dato. Via syftet att undersöka sambandet mellan ett byte av vd och resultatmanipulering har vi för avsikt att hjälpa investerare till att bättre förstå marknaden och till förbättrade investeringsbeslut. Via kvantitativ analys av årsredovisningar har vi med hjälp av den modifierade Jonesmodellen tagit fram ett mått på företags diskretionära periodiseringar. Måttet har likställts med resultatmanipulering och ställts i relation till företags vd-byten. Kopplat till horisontproblemet har nivån på resultatmanipulering jämförts mot vd-byte som sker efterföljande räkenskapsår. Teorin om stålbad har i sin tur testats genom att undersöka om resultatmanipulering nyttjas under en vd:s första verksamma år, alternativt i något av de efterföljande två räkenskapsåren. Resultaten påvisade att den svenska marknaden skiljer sig mot både bakomliggande teori och tidigare forskning. Förekomsten av horisontproblemet eller stålbad kunde inte bevisas, däremot fann studien att resultatet skrivs upp via resultatmanipulering i de två efterföljande åren efter att ett byte av vd skett. Anmärkningsvärt bevisades även att resultatminskande åtgärder utförs året innan ett rutinmässigt vd-byte inträffar. Sett till orsakssambanden bevisades därutöver att sannolikheten för att ett vd-byte kom att inträffa ökade vid användning av negativ resultatmanipulering samt när företagets lönsamhet var lägre än marknadsgenomsnittet. Studien belyser att kausalitetsproblem föreligger mellan resultatmanipulering, vd-byte och företagets lönsamhet. De exakta orsakssambanden kan studien inte förmå förklara utan vi påvisar att ytterligare forskning behöver genomföras för att klargöra det sanna orsaksförhållandet. Avslutningsvis renderar studien teoretiskt bidrag då den påvisar att teorierna om horisontproblemet och stålbad i samband med vd-byte inte stämmer in på den svenska marknaden.

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Nous avons choisi de focaliser nos analyses sur les inégalités sociales de mortalité spécifiquement aux grands âges. Pour ce faire, l'utilisation de l'âge modal au décès combiné à la dispersion des décès au-delà de cet âge s'avère particulièrement adapté pour capter ces disparités puisque ces mesures ne sont pas tributaires de la mortalité prématurée. Ainsi, à partir de la distribution des âges au décès selon le niveau de défavorisation, au Québec au cours des périodes 2000-2002 et 2005-2007, nous avons déterminé l'âge le plus commun au décès et la dispersion des durées de vie au-delà de celui-ci. L'estimation de la distribution des décès selon l'âge et le niveau de défavorisation repose sur une approche non paramétrique de lissage par P-splines développée par Nadine Ouellette dans le cadre de sa thèse de doctorat. Nos résultats montrent que l'âge modal au décès ne permet pas de détecter des disparités dans la mortalité des femmes selon le niveau de défavorisation au Québec en 2000-2002 et en 2005-2007. Néanmoins, on assiste à un report de la mortalité vers des âges plus avancés alors que la compression de la mortalité semble s'être stabilisée. Pour les hommes, les inégalités sociales de mortalité sont particulièrement importantes entre le sous-groupe le plus favorisé et celui l'étant le moins. On constate un déplacement de la durée de vie la plus commune des hommes vers des âges plus élevés et ce, peu importe le niveau de défavorisation. Cependant, contrairement à leurs homologues féminins, le phénomène de compression de la mortalité semble toujours s'opérer. / "Social inequalities in the most common age at death : the distribution of deaths by age and deprivation quintile in Quebec in 2000-2002 and 2005-2007" We chose to focus our analysis on the social inequalities of mortality at older ages especially. The use of the modal age at death, combined with the dispersion of deaths above this age is particularly adapted to capture such disparities. Indeed, these measures are not dependent on premature mortality. From the distribution of ages at death by level of deprivation in Quebec during the periods of 2000-2002 and 2005-2007, we determined the most common age at death and the dispersion of deaths above it. We first estimated the distribution of deaths by age and level of deprivation with a nonparametric smoothing approach based on P-splines developed by Nadine Ouellette in her doctoral thesis. Our results show that the modal age at death does not allow to detect disparities in mortality among women by level of deprivation in Quebec in 2000-2002 and in 2005-2007. Nevertheless, mortality shifted to older ages, while the compression of mortality seems to have stabilized. For men, social inequalities in mortality are particularly important between the most and least favored subgroups. There is a shift in male modal age at death towards older ages, regardless of the level of deprivation. However, unlike their female counterparts, the phenomenon of compression of mortality still seems ongoing.

Inledning: Svenska kommuners verksamhet betecknas som säregen. Till detta hör att kommunerna skiljer sig från den privata sektorn i avseende på målsättning och utförande. En utav de särdrag som finns inom kommunerna är deras redovisning av pensionerna som skall ske enligt blandmodellen. Ett flertal studier har lyft upp farhågor om att redovisningen enligt blandmodellen anses leda till diskretionära tolkningsutrymmen som troligtvis kommer utnyttjas av politikerna i syfte att påverka redovisningen. En del av de diskretionära åtgärder som antas vara möjliga är pensionsförvaltning av de förmånsbestämda pensionerna. Syfte: Studiens syfte är att förklara kommunernas val av förvaltning av de förmånsbestämda pensionerna. Metod: En deduktiv ansats har använts i studien för att kartlägga de olika teoretiska förhållandena mellan pensionsförvaltning och pensionsredovisning. Studiens utförande grundar sig i att tillföra en ny inblick i redovisningsforskningen. För att åstadkomma detta har tolv hypoteser sammanställts och prövats utifrån den statistiska analysen. Slutsatser: Studien har visat att variabeln lönsamhet har varit signifikant inom samtliga analyser. Detta har lett till att hypotesen om resultatutjämning har använts som en förklaring till kommunernas val av pensionsförvaltning. Variablerna befolkningsstorlek och befolkningsförändring har även de visat sig påverka valet av pensionsförvaltningen. I den logistiska regressionen har det dock varit problematiskt att införa samtliga variabler i samma modell. Därför har hypoteserna om befolkningsstorlek och befolkningsförändring förkastats tillsvidare. Hypoteserna som utformades har stundom växlat mellan positiv redovisningsteori och institutionell teori för att på så vis ge en mer utförligt förklaring. De anses därför ha bidragit var på sitt sätt till att förklara valet av pensionsförvaltningen. / Introduction: Swedish municipalities’ operations are described as being distinctive. This means that the municipalities differ from the private sector in terms of goal settings and performance. One of the characteristics found in the municipalities is their reporting of pensions that is to be accounted for according to the mixed model. Several studies have brought forward concerns that the accounting according to the mixed model may give rise to discretionary interpretations that assumedly are going to be exploited by the politicians in order to affect the financial reporting. A part of the discretion that is used in the earnings management is assumed to occur in the pension management of the defined benefit pension plans. Aim: The aim of the study is to explain the municipalities’ choice of management of the defined benefit pension plans. Method: A deductive approach has been used in the study to identify different theoretical relationships between the pension management and pension accounting. The study's design was based on providing a new insight into accounting research. To achieve this, twelve hypotheses were formulated and later tested using the statistical analysis. Conclusions: The study has shown that the variable profitability has been significant in the overall analyzes. This has led to the hypothesis that income smoothing could be used as to explain the municipalities’ choice of pension management. The variables population size and population change have also been shown to affect the choice of pension management. Doing the logistical regression with all the variables was however problematic. Therefore, the hypotheses on population size and population change have been rejected for the time being. The hypotheses that were designed have been interchangeable at different points between positive accounting theory and institutional theory, which has led to a more detailed explanation. They are therefore considered to have contributed each in its own way to explain the choice of pension management.

En acoustique sous marine, les 'etudes sur les zones en eau peu profondes sontredevenues strat'egiques. Cette th'ese porte sur l' 'etude de la s'eparation et la d'etectionde trajet dans le cadre des eaux peu profondes tomographie acoustique oc'eanique. Dansune premi'ere 'etape de notre travail, nous avons donn'e un bref aperc¸u sur les techniquesexistantes de traitement acoustique sous-marine afin de trouver la difficult'e toujoursconfront'es 'a ce type de m'ethodes. Par cons'equent, nous avons fait une conclusion qu'ilest encore n'e cessaire d'am'eliorer la r'esolution de s'eparation afin de fournir des informationsplus utiles pour l' 'etape inverse de la tomographie acoustique oc'eanique.Ainsi, une enquˆete sur les mthodes haute r'esolution est effecut'ee. Enfin, nous avonspropos'e une m'ethode 'a haute r'esolution appel'ee lissage MUSICAL (MUSIC Active largeband), qui combine le lissage de fr'equence spatiale avec l'algorithme MUSICAL, pourune s'eparation efficace de trajet coh'erentes ou totalement corr'el'es. Cependant, cettem'ethode est bas'ee sur la connaissance a priori du nombre de trajet. Ainsi, nous introduisonsun test (exponential fitting test) (EFT) 'a l'aide de courte longueur des 'echantillonspour d'eterminer le nombre de trajets. Ces deux m'ethodes sont appliqu'ees 'a la fois desdonn'ees synth'etiques et les donn'ees r'eelles acquises dans un r'eservoir 'a petite 'echelle.Leurs performances sont compar'ees avec les m'ethodes conventionnelles pertinentes.

In South Africa various financial institutions and independent vendors have developed residential property valuation models to estimate the current value of historically traded properties. A natural extension to these models has been to develop historical property price indices. In this dissertation, three of the four approaches to developing property price indices will be examined. Through back–testing and other statistical methods, the most accurate and robust approach will be determined. The four major approaches available are the mean valuation per suburb, the median valuation per suburb, the repeat sales approach and hedonic regression. The mean valuation per suburb approach can be biased because of outliers in property prices. However, outliers in property prices will not influence the median valuation per suburb approach, but in cases where property values in a suburb have a skewed distribution, the valuation amount could be distorted. Neither of the above mentioned shortcomings influences the repeat sales or the hedonic regression approach. To follow the hedonic regression approach, the characteristics of the property need to be known. In South Africa, however, the available property data lacks detailed characteristics of traded properties. This dissertation will therefore focus on the first three methods. The repeat sales approach measures the growth in property prices by applying a generalized linear model to properties that have traded more than once. This approach is only possible if there is a representative amount of repeat sales able to fit a model. The focus of this project will be on the repeat sales approach, but all three the approaches discussed will be analysed to prove that the repeat sales approach is the most accurate in developing a property price index for properties in South Africa. / Thesis (M.Sc. (Risk Analysis))--North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2011.

Demand forecasting performance is subject to the uncertainty underlying the time series an organisation is dealing with. There are many approaches that may be used to reduce demand uncertainty and consequently improve the forecasting (and inventory control) performance. An intuitively appealing such approach that is known to be effective is demand aggregation. One approach is to aggregate demand in lower-frequency 'time buckets'. Such an approach is often referred to, in the academic literature, as temporal aggregation. Another approach discussed in the literature is that associated with cross-sectional aggregation, which involves aggregating different time series to obtain higher level forecasts.This research discusses whether it is appropriate to use the original (not aggregated) data to generate a forecast or one should rather aggregate data first and then generate a forecast. This Ph.D. thesis reveals the conditions under which each approach leads to a superior performance as judged based on forecast accuracy. Throughout this work, it is assumed that the underlying structure of the demand time series follows an AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) process.In the first part of our1 research, the effect of temporal aggregation on demand forecasting is analysed. It is assumed that the non-aggregate demand follows an autoregressive moving average process of order one, ARMA(1,1). Additionally, the associated special cases of a first-order autoregressive process, AR(1) and a moving average process of order one, MA(1) are also considered, and a Single Exponential Smoothing (SES) procedure is used to forecast demand. These demand processes are often encountered in practice and SES is one of the standard estimators used in industry. Theoretical Mean Squared Error expressions are derived for the aggregate and the non-aggregate demand in order to contrast the relevant forecasting performances. The theoretical analysis is validated by an extensive numerical investigation and experimentation with an empirical dataset. The results indicate that performance improvements achieved through the aggregation approach are a function of the aggregation level, the smoothing constant value used for SES and the process parameters.In the second part of our research, the effect of cross-sectional aggregation on demand forecasting is evaluated. More specifically, the relative effectiveness of top-down (TD) and bottom-up (BU) approaches are compared for forecasting the aggregate and sub-aggregate demands. It is assumed that that the sub-aggregate demand follows either a ARMA(1,1) or a non-stationary Integrated Moving Average process of order one, IMA(1,1) and a SES procedure is used to extrapolate future requirements. Such demand processes are often encountered in practice and, as discussed above, SES is one of the standard estimators used in industry (in addition to being the optimal estimator for an IMA(1) process). Theoretical Mean Squared Errors are derived for the BU and TD approach in order to contrast the relevant forecasting performances. The theoretical analysis is supported by an extensive numerical investigation at both the aggregate and sub-aggregate levels in addition to empirically validating our findings on a real dataset from a European superstore. The results show that the superiority of each approach is a function of the series autocorrelation, the cross-correlation between series and the comparison level.Finally, for both parts of the research, valuable insights are offered to practitioners and an agenda for further research in this area is provided.

In South Africa various financial institutions and independent vendors have developed residential property valuation models to estimate the current value of historically traded properties. A natural extension to these models has been to develop historical property price indices. In this dissertation, three of the four approaches to developing property price indices will be examined. Through back–testing and other statistical methods, the most accurate and robust approach will be determined. The four major approaches available are the mean valuation per suburb, the median valuation per suburb, the repeat sales approach and hedonic regression. The mean valuation per suburb approach can be biased because of outliers in property prices. However, outliers in property prices will not influence the median valuation per suburb approach, but in cases where property values in a suburb have a skewed distribution, the valuation amount could be distorted. Neither of the above mentioned shortcomings influences the repeat sales or the hedonic regression approach. To follow the hedonic regression approach, the characteristics of the property need to be known. In South Africa, however, the available property data lacks detailed characteristics of traded properties. This dissertation will therefore focus on the first three methods. The repeat sales approach measures the growth in property prices by applying a generalized linear model to properties that have traded more than once. This approach is only possible if there is a representative amount of repeat sales able to fit a model. The focus of this project will be on the repeat sales approach, but all three the approaches discussed will be analysed to prove that the repeat sales approach is the most accurate in developing a property price index for properties in South Africa. / Thesis (M.Sc. (Risk Analysis))--North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2011.

This thesis is concerned with the efficient numerical simulation of finite element based flexible multibody systems. Scaling operations are systematically applied to the governing index-3 differential algebraic equations in order to solve the problem of ill conditioning for small time step sizes. The importance of augmented Lagrangian terms is demonstrated. The use of fast sparse solvers is justified for the solution of the linearized equations of motion resulting in significant savings of computational costs. Three time stepping schemes for the integration of the governing equations of flexible multibody systems are discussed in detail. These schemes are the two-stage Radau IIA scheme, the energy decaying scheme, and the generalized-α method. Their formulations are adapted to the specific structure of the governing equations of flexible multibody systems. The efficiency of the time integration schemes is comprehensively evaluated on a series of test problems. Formulations for structural and constraint elements are reviewed and the problem of interpolation of finite rotations in geometrically exact structural elements is revisited. This results in the development of a new improved interpolation algorithm, which preserves the objectivity of the strain field and guarantees stable simulations in the presence of arbitrarily large rotations. Finally, strategies for the spatial discretization of beams in the presence of steep variations in cross-sectional properties are developed. These strategies reduce the number of degrees of freedom needed to accurately analyze beams with discontinuous properties, resulting in improved computational efficiency.

Time series model have been used in many areas of knowledge and have become a current necessity for companies to survive in a globalized and competitive market, as well as climatic factors that have always been a concern because of the different ways they interfere in human life. In this context, this work aims to present a comparison among the performances by the following models of time series: ARIMA, ARMAX and Exponential Smoothing, adjusted to air relative humidity (UR) and also to verify the volatility present in the series through non-linear models ARCH/GARCH, adjusted to residues of the ARIMA and ARMAX models. The data were collected from INMET from October, 1st to January, 22nd, 2014. In the comparison of the results and the selection of the best model, the criteria MAPE, EQM, MAD and SSE were used. The results showed that the model ARMAX(3,0), with the inclusion of exogenous variables produced better forecast results, compared to the other models SARMA(3,0)(1,1)12 and the Holt-Winters multiplicative. In the volatility study of the series via non-linear ARCH(1), adjusted to the quadrants of SARMA(3,0)(1,1)12 and ARMAX(3,0) residues, it was observed that the volatility does not tend to influence the future long-term observations. It was then concluded that the classes of models used and compared in this study, for data of a climatologic variable, showed a good performance and adjustment. We highlight the broad usage possibility in the techniques of temporal series when it is necessary to make forecasts and also to describe a temporal process, being able to be used as an efficient support tool in decision making. / Modelos de séries temporais vêm sendo empregados em diversas áreas do conhecimento e têm surgido como necessidade atual para empresas sobreviverem em um mercado globalizado e competitivo, bem como fatores climáticos sempre foram motivo de preocupação pelas diferentes formas que interferem na vida humana. Nesse contexto, o presente trabalho tem por objetivo apresentar uma comparação do desempenho das classes de modelos de séries temporais ARIMA, ARMAX e Alisamento Exponencial, ajustados a dados de umidade relativa do ar (UR) e verificar a volatilidade presente na série por meio de modelos não-lineares ARCH/GARCH ajustados aos resíduos dos modelos ARIMA e ARMAX. Os dados foram coletados junto ao INMET no período de 01 de outubro de 2001 a 22 de janeiro de 2014. Na comparação dos resultados e na seleção do melhor modelo foram utilizados os critérios MAPE, EQM, MAD e SSE. Os resultados mostraram que o modelo ARMAX(3,0) com a inclusão de variáveis exógenas produziu melhores resultados de previsão em relação aos seus concorrentes SARMA(3,0)(1,1)12 e o Holt-Winters multiplicativo. No estudo da volatilidade da série via modelo não-linear ARCH(1), ajustado aos quadrados dos resíduos dos modelos SARMA(3,0)(1,1)12 e ARMAX(3,0), observou-se que a volatilidade não tende a influenciar as observações futuras em longo prazo. Conclui-se que as classes de modelos utilizadas e comparadas neste estudo, para dados de uma variável climatológica, demonstraram bom desempenho e ajuste. Destaca-se a ampla possibilidade de utilização das técnicas de séries temporais quando se deseja fazer previsões e descrever um processo temporal, podendo ser utilizadas como ferramenta eficiente de apoio nas tomadas de decisão.