The field of vector-borne disease research uses multidisciplinary approaches to help understand complicated interactions. This dissertation, covers three different aspects of tick-borne disease research which all focus on exploring tick-borne diseases in the non-endemic areas of Denton, County Texas and the state of Texas with a focus on Rickettsia spp. These aspects include tick sampling, testing ticks for the presence of Rickettsia spp., and creating species distribution maps of the Rickettsia spp. Rickettsia amblyommatis and tick species Amblyomma americanum.

Ecological niche models (ENMs) were created for White-tailed and Black-tailed prairie dogs and projected into the Last Interglacial (LI), the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), and mid-Holocene (mid-H) to discern possible past suitable habitat for both species. Additionally, ENMs were projected into the future year 2070 representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 2.6 and 8.5 to discern how climate change may affect future habitat suitability. Kernel density estimations, minimum convex polygons, and median distribution centers of White-tailed and Black-tailed occurrence records were examined between time-periods to discern the effects of anthropogenic westward expansion on both species’ distributions. Current ENMs were constructed from commonly used bioclimatic variables and non-traditional variables (including EPA level III Ecoregions) for White-tailed and Black-tailed prairie dogs for variable comparison performance in ENMs. Results indicate that both species respond to climate change and each occupy distinct ecological niches. Biogeographical changes coincident with westward expansion remain unknown.

No description available.

No description available.

<p dir="ltr">The lichen-feeding tiger moth tribe Lithosiini (Erebidae: Arctiinae) represent the largest radiation of invertebrate lichenivory. Caterpillars feed on lichen and as they feed, also sequester lichen polyphenolics, a behavior unique to these insects. The role of these compounds is believed to defend lithosiines against predators as larvae have been found to be protected against predators such as ants and moths to predators such as birds and bats. Experimental testing with controlled diets is necessary to fully make this connection, however little is known about host specifics for lithosiines. Furthermore, although lithosiines are monophyletic, the lack of a fully resolved phylogeny hampers investigation into many of the shallower level relationships, e.g. those among genera and species, within the group.</p><p dir="ltr">I addressed these knowledge gaps using the subtribe Cisthenina. Members of this group have been used to investigate predator-prey interactions and been included in morphological and molecular studies. Thus, while the group still needs attention, there is an ample amount of legacy loci data available for its members. I used these data to investigate the evolutionary relationships at the genus level, but to increase resolution in my analyses I additionally sampled taxa throughout the group with a recently developed anchored hybrid enrichment (AHE) probe set. I combined it with the legacy loci to both increase taxon sampling and resolution. I confirmed that trees made strictly from the legacy loci were unsuccessful and resulted in poorly supported relationships that made little sense. The addition of the AHE data greatly helped resolve relationships, however, there remained areas that were poorly supported and they appear to be genera with only a few loci. Thus, there is still room for improvement, but this offers a way for moving forward in lithosiine research, particularly to involve others who may have limited funding, equipment, and/or personnel and may only be able to afford legacy loci in diverse collaborations.</p><p dir="ltr">As the AHE probe set worked well with genus-level relationships I further attempted to use it in species delimitation of the notorious <i>Hypoprepia fucosa</i>-<i>miniata </i>species complex. Members of this group are varying shades of yellows, oranges and reds and have a convoluted taxonomic history. I gathered and organized over 4,000 specimens and using the AHE probe set found support for five distinct species. Interestingly, I used other morphological characters such as genitalia, but found no differences between species and a large amount of intraspecific variation. This suggests other courtship behaviors may be present and external morphology, i.e., color patterns, remain the best way to identify species. As part of this I am describing a new species and raising one from subspecies and as species are now readily distinguishable, they can be used for further investigations into lithosiines.</p><p dir="ltr">I used a member of this complex, <i>H</i>. <i>fucosa</i> to then evaluate the use of species distribution models (SDMs) to better understand their niche and how it relates to plausible lichen hosts. I evaluated 17 lichen species from two lichen genera, <i>Physcia </i>(13 species) and <i>Myelochro</i><i>a </i>(4 species)<i>. </i>These genera were selected based on previous feeding assays and the metabolites found in them have also been found in <i>H</i>. <i>fucosa </i>further suggesting caterpillars may feed on them. SDMs typically only use environmental factors to define and predict species niches. I compared the niches described by traditional SDMs to assess how similar they were, but I also investigated the use of lichens as biotic factors in the models. I assessed the influence each lichen had on the moth’s distribution found the niche of every lichen to be significantly different than that of the moth and their inclusion in SDMs of <i>H</i>. <i>fucosa </i>to improve model performance. This suggests <i>H</i>. <i>fucosa </i>caterpillars to be polyphagous, but to have some connection with these lichens. Further investigation with live specimens is needed, but these results support this as an effective way to describe lithosiine niches to better understand lichen feeding.</p>

No description available.

Tigers (Panthera tigris Linnaeus, 1758) are in danger of extinction. Their populations have declined from ~100,000 to only ~3,000 individuals in a century and their habitat has shrunk to less than 7% of the historic range. Of the five extant tiger subspecies, the Sumatran tiger (Panthera tigris sumatrae Pocock, 1929) is the most seriously threatened. Currently determined as Critically Endangered under IUCN criteria, the Sumatran tiger is likely to become extinct unless effective conservation measures are enacted. Threats to the tiger include habitat destruction, killing due to conflict with humans and livestock, and poaching for illegal wildlife trade. Long-term survival of Sumatran tigers depends largely on the effectiveness of current conservation efforts in every tiger landscape. Successful conservation and management require accurate information on ecology of the species upon which decisions can be based. This study investigated basic ecological aspects of tigers and developed strategies for management and restoration to improve tiger viability in the Central Sumatra landscape. This landscape is comprised of natural forests and plantations managed for timber and agricultural commodities. The first chapter assesses the variation in tiger abundance across forest types in Southern Riau, and over time in Tesso Nilo National Park, all in Central Sumatra. Using camera traps, my team and I systematically sampled five blocks representing three major forest types in the region: peat land, flat lowland, and hilly lowland. I found that tiger abundance varied by forest type and through time. Excluding two sampling blocks where no tigers were photographed, the lowest tiger density was in peat land forest of Kerumutan, and the highest density was in the flat lowland forest of Tesso Nilo. Repeated sampling in the newly established Tesso Nilo National Park documented a trend of increasing tiger density (SE) from 0.90 (0.38) individuals/100 km2 in 2005 to 1.70 (0.66) individuals/100 km2 in 2008. Overall, tiger densities from this study were lower than most previous estimates from other parts of Sumatra. The trend of increasing tiger density in Tesso Nilo, however, suggests that the tiger population could be augmented by protection of habitats that were previously logged and severely disturbed. The second chapter examines the occupancy and habitat-use of the tiger across the major landcover types (natural forest, acacia plantation, oilpalm plantation, rubber plantation, and mixed agriculture). I found that tigers used some plantation areas, although they significantly preferred forests over plantations. In all landcover types, sites with tiger detections had thicker understory cover than sites without tiger detection. Modeling tiger occupancy while recognizing that probability of detection is not always perfect, I found that tiger occupancy covaried positively and significantly with altitude and negatively, but not significantly, with distance-to-forest-cores. Probability of habitat use by tigers covaried positively and significantly with understory cover and altitude, and negatively and significantly with human settlement and landcover rank. The results suggested that with adjustments in plantation management, tigers could use or roam through plantations within the habitat mosaic provided that the plantations had adequate understory cover and low level of human activity. They also could use riparian forests (as corridors) and smaller forest patches (as stepping stones) to travel between the main habitat patches across the forest and plantation landscape. The third chapter investigates the ecological characteristics and possible inter-specific interactions among wild felids, including tigers and smaller cats, based on data collected using systematic camera trapping in combination with information on their natural history. I found that despite overlap in resource needs of the five felid species, each appears adapted to specific environmental conditions allowing coexistence with other felids. The five felid species used statistically different elevations, with the golden cat found to inhabit the highest elevation. Two-species occupancy models showed that only leopard cats were found to co-occur with other felid species more frequently than expected by chance under independence. Species of similar size or eating similar-sized prey generally tended to have low coefficients of temporal activity overlap, suggesting avoidance. Temporal avoidance is likely occurring in three pairs of felids, namely clouded leopards and golden cats, clouded leopards and marbled cats, and marbled cats and leopard cats. Based on the differences in morphological and ecological characteristics, and on patterns of spatial and temporal occurrence, I identified six possible mechanisms by which felids in Central Sumatra maintain coexistence. I discussed the implications of this study for management, focusing on how to balance diversity and abundance of felids. The fourth chapter presents the tiger distribution models as a case study to illustrate the importance of accounting for uncertainty in species distribution mapping. I applied four modeling approaches, differing in how the response variable (tiger presence) is constructed and used in the models. I compared the performance and output of different models based on the relative importance of variables, descriptive statistics of the predictions, cross comparison between models using an error matrix, and validation using tiger presence data collected from independent surveys. All models consistently identified forest area within the grid as one of the most important variables explaining tiger probability of occurrence. Three models identified altitude as another important factor. While the four models were consistent in predicting relatively high probability of tiger occurrence for high elevation forest areas such as Rimbang Baling and Bukit Tigapuluh, they generally had a lower level of agreement in predictions for low elevation areas, particularly the peat land in the northeastern part of the study area. Based on the results of cross evaluation of the predictions among models and validation with the independent data, I considered the occupancy model to be superior to the others. If data collection format permits, I advocate the use of occupancy instead of the other modeling techniques to develop predictive species distribution maps. The last chapter constructs a strategy to restore the tiger population across the ecosystem of Central Sumatra through integration of knowledge on tiger ecology from previous chapters with consideration of the ecological conditions of the landscape in the region. The strategy combines existing knowledge of tiger conservation and regional ecosystem restoration. It recognizes the limitations and challenges of traditional nature protection and considers existing and new opportunities. Emerging opportunities and new mechanisms, such as direct and indirect economic incentives for nature conservation and restoration, are taken into account. These, coupled with increased awareness of the stakeholders, better policies and implementation of good governance, and the willingness and know-how to maintain coexistence with wildlife among the local people, are expected to support and accelerate the recovery of tigers and their ecosystem. / Ph. D.

Small Island Developing States (SIDS) of the Caribbean are one of the world’s ‘hottest’ ‘biodiversity hotspots’. However, this biodiversity continues to be threatened by habitat loss, and now, by climate change. The research reported here investigated the potential of species distribution modelling (SDM) as a plant conservation tool within Caribbean SIDS, using Trinidad as a case study. Prior to the application of SDM, ancillary analyses including: (i) quantification and mapping of forest cover change (1969 to 2007) and deforestation rates, and (ii) assessment of the island’s vegetation community distribution and associated drivers were carried out. Community distribution and commercial importance and global/regional rarity were used to generate a list of species for assessing the potential of SDM within Trinidad. Species occurrence data were used to generate species distribution models for present climate conditions within the SDM algorithm, MaxEnt. These results were assessed through expert appraisal and concurrence with results of ecological analyses. These models were used to forecast suitable species climate space forty years into an SRES A2 future. Present and future models were then combined to produce a ‘collective change map’ which showed projected areas of species’ range expansion, contraction or stability for this group of species with respect to Trinidad’s Protected Areas (PAs) network. Despite the models being indicative rather than accurate, it was concluded that species’ climate space is likely to decrease or disappear across Trinidad. Extended beyond Trinidad into the remainder of the Caribbean region, SDM may be a crucial tool in identifying which PAs within the region (and not individual islands) will facilitate future survival of given target species. Consideration of species conservation from a regional, rather than an individual island perspective, is strongly recommended for aiding the Caribbean SIDS to adapt in response to climate change.

Prédire les réponses de la biodiversité aux changements climatiques anthropiques est devenu un champ de recherche avec des enjeux scientifiques et sociétaux majeurs. Mon travail de thèse a consisté à évaluer les impacts du réchauffement climatique sur un parasitoïde de drosophiles, Leptopilina boulardi, à une petite échelle géographique, le sud-est de la France. L'objectif était non seulement d'examiner l'évolution de la distribution du parasitoïde en réponse à une hausse des températures qu'il fallait préciser à cette échelle géographique, mais aussi d'appréhender les adaptations mises en place dans la zone de progression de l'espèce. Dans un premier temps, l'analyse de données d'échantillonnages et de données météorologiques m'ont permis de mettre en évidence une rapide expansion de l'aire de répartition du parasitoïde vers le nord, à un taux moyen de 90km/décennie, simultanément à une augmentation moyenne de la température de 1,57°C ces 30 dernières années, dans l'aire d'étude. Après avoir identifié les principaux facteurs environnementaux, structurant la répartition spatiale de L. boulardi, j'ai modélisé sa distribution potentielle dans le sud-est de la France, sous conditions climatiques actuelles et pour 2050, pour deux scénarios d'émission de CO2. En 2050, la distribution géographique de L. boulardi devrait considérablement s'étendre vers le nord sous l'effet des changements climatiques. Ensuite, en mesurant plusieurs traits d'histoire de vie selon 4 régimes thermiques fluctuants, j'ai montré que les populations de L. boulardi situées en limite d'aire de répartition sont génétiquement différenciées de celles situées dans l'aire centrale de répartition. Le fait que les populations marginales aient une valeur sélective plus importante à faible température suggère une adaptation locale des parasitoïdes dans la zone de progression de l'aire de répartition. La dernière partie de ce travail de thèse a pour objectif de mieux comprendre le processus de colonisation de L. boulardi. Pour cela, j'ai entrepris le développement de marqueurs RAD-sequencing sur 15 populations de cette espèce, distribuées le long d'un cline de latitude dans le sud-est de la France. Les nombreuses données issues du séquençage Illumina me permettront de connaître la structuration génétique de ces populations. L'ensemble de ces résultats obtenus au cours de ma thèse révèlent la force avec laquelle les changements climatiques peuvent impacter les espèces, principalement celles de haut niveau trophique, en provoquant des changements très rapide de distribution et des modifications génotypiques et phénotypiques permettant une meilleure adaptation locale / Predicting biodiversity responses to anthropogenic climate change has become a field of research with major scientific and societal issues. The main goal of my thesis was to evaluate the impacts of global warming on a Drosophila parasitoid, Leptopilina boulardi, at a small geographical scale, the South-East of France. The aim was not only to examine the change in the distribution of the parasitoid in response to rising temperatures, but also to understand the adaptations associated with this change. First, the analysis of insect sampling and meteorological data allowed me to demonstrate a rapid expansion of the parasitoid range to the north with an average rate of 90km/decade as well as a simultaneous temperature increase of 1.57°C on average over the past 30 years in the studied area. Following the identification of the main environmental factors structuring the spatial distribution of L. boulardi, I fitted a model predicting its potential distribution in the south-east of France, under the current climate and in 2050, for two CO2 emission scenarios. In 2050, the geographical distribution of L. boulardi should significantly extend northward as a result of climate change. Then, by measuring several life history traits under four fluctuating temperature regimes, I have shown that populations of L. boulardi located on the border of the range are genetically differentiated from those in the central range. The fact that marginal populations have a greater fitness at low temperature suggests local adaptation of parasitoids in the area of progression of range. The last part of this thesis aimed to better understand the process of colonization of L. boulardi. For this, I undertook the development of RAD-sequencing markers to genotype 15 populations of this species distributed along a cline of latitude in the southeast of France. Numerous data from Illumina sequencing will allow me to characterize the genetic structure of the populations. All the results obtained in my thesis highlight the force with which climate change may impact species, in particular those of high trophic level, causing rapid changes in distribution along with genotypic and phenotypic changes underlying local adaptation

<p>U&nbsp; radu&nbsp; je&nbsp; analizirana&nbsp; efektivnost&nbsp; za&scaron;tićenih područja&nbsp; Srbije&nbsp; u&nbsp; sada&scaron;njosti&nbsp; i&nbsp; budućnosti&nbsp; na osnovu&nbsp; zastupljenosti&nbsp; povoljnih&nbsp; stani&scaron;ta&nbsp; i centara&nbsp; diverziteta&nbsp; 116&nbsp; običnih&nbsp; vrsta&nbsp; ptica odabranih na osnovu 11 kriterijuma. Zasebno su evaluirana&nbsp; za&scaron;tićena&nbsp; prirodna&nbsp; dobara, međunarodno značajna područja za ptice (IBA) i mreža nastala preklapanjem dva tipa za&scaron;tićenih područja.&nbsp; Povoljna&nbsp; stani&scaron;ta&nbsp; istraživanih&nbsp; vrsta utvrđena su modelovanjem distribucije vrsta uz pomoć&nbsp; MaxEnt&nbsp; pristupa,&nbsp; a&nbsp; modeli&nbsp; distribucije projektovani&nbsp; su&nbsp; na&nbsp; četiri&nbsp; različita&nbsp; scenarija klimatskih&nbsp; promena&nbsp; u&nbsp; budućnosti&nbsp; (2050. godina).&nbsp; IBA&nbsp; mreža&nbsp; pokazala&nbsp; se&nbsp; kao&nbsp; značajno<br />efektivnija za za&scaron;titu stani&scaron;ta istraživanih vrsta i centara&nbsp; njihvog&nbsp; diverziteta&nbsp; u&nbsp; odnosu&nbsp; na&nbsp; mrežu za&scaron;tićenih&nbsp; prirodnih&nbsp; dobara,&nbsp; a&nbsp; slična&nbsp; situacija predviđena&nbsp; je&nbsp; i&nbsp; u&nbsp; budućnosti.&nbsp; Oba&nbsp; tipa za&scaron;tićenih&nbsp; područja&nbsp; pokrivala&nbsp; su&nbsp; u&nbsp; proseku srazmerno&nbsp; mali&nbsp; procenat&nbsp; povoljnih&nbsp; stani&scaron;ta istraživanih&nbsp; vrsta&nbsp; (za&scaron;tićena&nbsp; prirodna&nbsp; dobra&nbsp; &ndash;<br />10,4%;&nbsp; IBA&nbsp; &ndash;&nbsp; 21,9%)&nbsp; i&nbsp; dovela&nbsp; su&nbsp; do ostvarivanja konzervacionih ciljeva malog broja vrsta (za&scaron;tićena prirodna dobra&nbsp; &ndash;&nbsp; 11; IBA&nbsp; -&nbsp; 37), dok&nbsp; su&nbsp; centri&nbsp; diverziteta&nbsp; istraživanih&nbsp; vrstasrazmerno&nbsp; slabo&nbsp; zastupljeni&nbsp; unutar&nbsp; obe&nbsp; mreže (za&scaron;tićena&nbsp; prirodna&nbsp; dobra&nbsp; &ndash;&nbsp; 9,8%;&nbsp; IBA&nbsp; &ndash; 25,4%).&nbsp; Za&scaron;tićena&nbsp; područja&nbsp; nisu&nbsp; pokazale<br />značajno&nbsp; veću&nbsp; efektivnost&nbsp; za&nbsp; konzervaciono prioritetnt&nbsp; vrste&nbsp; i&nbsp; njihov&nbsp; diverzitet.&nbsp; Za&scaron;tićena prirodna&nbsp; dobra&nbsp; i&nbsp; IBA&nbsp; mreža&nbsp; u&nbsp; Srbiji&nbsp; značajno bolje&nbsp; pokrivaju&nbsp; stani&scaron;ta&nbsp; i&nbsp; centre&nbsp; diverziteta &scaron;umskih vrsta i vrsta kamenjara, klisura i litica, dok&nbsp; su&nbsp; povoljna&nbsp; stani&scaron;ta&nbsp; i&nbsp; centri&nbsp; diverziteta gnezdarica&nbsp; poljoprivrednih&nbsp; stani&scaron;ta,&nbsp; naselja&nbsp; i vodenih&nbsp; stani&scaron;ta&nbsp; izrazito&nbsp; slabo&nbsp; zastupljena. Stani&scaron;ta&nbsp; gnezdarica&nbsp; nizijskih&nbsp; poljoprivrednih<br />stani&scaron;ta&nbsp; naročito&nbsp; su&nbsp; slabo&nbsp; zastupljena&nbsp; unutar za&scaron;tićenih&nbsp; prirodnih&nbsp; dobara&nbsp; i&nbsp; IBA&nbsp; mreže,&nbsp; koja za&nbsp; ovu&nbsp; grupu&nbsp; nisu&nbsp; dovela&nbsp; do&nbsp; postizanja konzervacionih&nbsp; ciljeva.&nbsp; Razlike&nbsp; u&nbsp; efektivnosti za&scaron;tićenih&nbsp; područja&nbsp; za&nbsp; gnezdarice&nbsp; različitih tipova&nbsp; stani&scaron;ta&nbsp; u&nbsp; budućnosti&nbsp; će&nbsp; se&nbsp; generalno povećavati,&nbsp; usled&nbsp; predviđenog&nbsp; smanjivanja<br />areala većine &scaron;umskih vrsta koje će se povlačiti u&nbsp; za&scaron;titom&nbsp; bolje&nbsp; pokrivene&nbsp; planinske&nbsp; predele&nbsp; i &scaron;irenja areala većine gnezdarica poljoprivrednih i&nbsp; vodenih&nbsp; stani&scaron;ta&nbsp; na&nbsp; neza&scaron;tićena&nbsp; nizijska područja. Za deo vrsta među kojima dominiraju<br />gnezdarice&nbsp; brdsko-planinskih&nbsp; &scaron;umskih&nbsp; i&nbsp; drugih prirodnih&nbsp; stani&scaron;ta&nbsp; glavna&nbsp; strategija&nbsp; za&scaron;tite podrazumeva&nbsp; precizno&nbsp; pro&scaron;irenje&nbsp; granica sada&scaron;njih&nbsp; za&scaron;tićenih&nbsp; područja&nbsp; uz&nbsp; upravljanje orentisano&nbsp; ka&nbsp; očuvanju&nbsp; prirodnih&nbsp; stani&scaron;ta&nbsp; i smanjenju&nbsp; iskori&scaron;ćavanja&nbsp; resursa.&nbsp; Sa&nbsp; druge strane,&nbsp; za&nbsp; većinu&nbsp; gnezdarica&nbsp; poljoprivrednih&nbsp; i<br />travnih stani&scaron;ta, naročito u nizijskim predelima, efektivna&nbsp; strategija&nbsp; bila&nbsp; bi&nbsp;&nbsp; definisanje&nbsp; potpuno novih&nbsp; i&nbsp; prostranih&nbsp; za&scaron;tićenih&nbsp; područja orijentisanih&nbsp; ka&nbsp; održavanju&nbsp; povoljnog&nbsp; režima upravljanja&nbsp; i&nbsp; kori&scaron;ćenja&nbsp; prostora.&nbsp; Rad&nbsp; ukazuje<br />na velike mogućnosti kori&scaron;ćenja nesistematično prikupljenih&nbsp; podataka&nbsp; profesionalnih&nbsp; i amaterskih&nbsp; ornitologa&nbsp; uz&nbsp; primenu&nbsp; tehnika modelovanja&nbsp; distribucije&nbsp; vrsta,&nbsp; ali&nbsp; nagla&scaron;ava potrebu&nbsp; za&nbsp; pokretanjem&nbsp; &scaron;irokih&nbsp; programa<br />sistematskog&nbsp; popisa,&nbsp; kartiranja&nbsp; i&nbsp; monitoringa običnih vrsta ptica.</p> / <p>The&nbsp; study&nbsp;&nbsp; analyzes&nbsp; the&nbsp; effectiveness&nbsp; of protected areas in Serbia presently as well as in the&nbsp; future,&nbsp; based&nbsp; on&nbsp; the&nbsp; representation&nbsp; of suitable habitats and centers of diversity for 116 common&nbsp; species of&nbsp; birds,&nbsp; selected on the&nbsp; basis of&nbsp; 11&nbsp; criteria.&nbsp; Nationally&nbsp; protected&nbsp; areas, Important&nbsp; Bird&nbsp; and&nbsp; Biodiversity&nbsp; areas&nbsp; (IBAs) and&nbsp; networks formed&nbsp; by overlapping these two types&nbsp; of&nbsp; protected&nbsp; areas&nbsp; have&nbsp; been&nbsp; evaluated separately. Suitable habitats of the species in the study&nbsp; were&nbsp; determined&nbsp; by&nbsp; species&nbsp; distribution modeling&nbsp; using&nbsp; the&nbsp; MaxEnt&nbsp; approach,&nbsp; and&nbsp; the distribution&nbsp; models&nbsp; were&nbsp; projected&nbsp; to&nbsp; four different&nbsp; climate&nbsp; change&nbsp; scenarios&nbsp; in&nbsp; future (year&nbsp; 2050).&nbsp; The&nbsp; IBA&nbsp; network&nbsp; proved&nbsp; to&nbsp; be significantly more effective for the&nbsp; protection of habitats&nbsp; of&nbsp; studied&nbsp; species&nbsp; and&nbsp; centers&nbsp; of&nbsp; their diversity, compared&nbsp; to the network of nationally protected&nbsp; areas,&nbsp; and&nbsp; a&nbsp; similar&nbsp; situation&nbsp; is projected for the future. Both types of protected areas&nbsp; on&nbsp; average&nbsp; covered&nbsp; a&nbsp; relatively&nbsp; small percentage of suitable habitats for most species (10.4%&nbsp; in&nbsp; nationaly&nbsp; protected&nbsp; areas,&nbsp; 21.9%&nbsp; in IBA)&nbsp; and&nbsp; meet&nbsp; conservation&nbsp; goals&nbsp; only&nbsp; for&nbsp; a&nbsp; small&nbsp; number&nbsp; of&nbsp; species&nbsp; (11&nbsp; for&nbsp; nationaly protected&nbsp; areas,&nbsp; 37&nbsp; for&nbsp; IBA).&nbsp; Diversity&nbsp; centers for&nbsp; species&nbsp; in&nbsp; the&nbsp; study&nbsp; are&nbsp; relatively&nbsp; poorlyrepresented within all three networks&nbsp; (9.8% for nationaly&nbsp; protected&nbsp; areas&nbsp; and&nbsp; 25.4%&nbsp; for&nbsp; IBA). Protected&nbsp; areas&nbsp; did&nbsp; not&nbsp; show&nbsp; significantly higher&nbsp; effectiveness&nbsp; for&nbsp; the&nbsp; conservation&nbsp; of priority&nbsp; species&nbsp; and&nbsp; their&nbsp; diversity.&nbsp; Nationaly protected&nbsp; areas&nbsp; and&nbsp; the&nbsp; IBA&nbsp; network&nbsp; in&nbsp; Serbia have&nbsp; a&nbsp; significantly&nbsp; better&nbsp; coverage&nbsp; of&nbsp; habitats and&nbsp; centers&nbsp; of&nbsp; diversity&nbsp; for&nbsp; forest&nbsp; species&nbsp; and species&nbsp; of&nbsp; rocky&nbsp; habitats,&nbsp; cliffs&nbsp; and&nbsp; gorges, while&nbsp; suitable&nbsp; habitats&nbsp; and&nbsp; centers&nbsp; of&nbsp; diversity for breeding birds of farmlands, settlements and aquatic&nbsp; habitats&nbsp; are&nbsp; very&nbsp; poorly&nbsp; represented. Habitats of breeding birds of lowland&nbsp; armlands are&nbsp; particularly&nbsp; poorly&nbsp; represented&nbsp; within protected&nbsp; natural&nbsp; assets&nbsp; and&nbsp; the&nbsp; IBA&nbsp; network, and this measure does not meet the conservation goals for this group of birds. Differences in the effectiveness&nbsp; of&nbsp; protected&nbsp; areas&nbsp; for&nbsp; breeding birds&nbsp; of&nbsp; various&nbsp; habitat&nbsp; types&nbsp; will&nbsp; generally increase&nbsp; in&nbsp; the&nbsp; future,&nbsp; due&nbsp; to&nbsp; the&nbsp; anticipated range decrease&nbsp; for&nbsp; most forest species that will withdraw&nbsp; to&nbsp; the&nbsp; better&nbsp; conserved&nbsp; mountainous areas, whereas range of the majority o f breeding birds&nbsp; of&nbsp; farmland&nbsp; and&nbsp; aquatic&nbsp; habitats&nbsp; will&nbsp; be expanded&nbsp; to&nbsp; unprotected&nbsp; lowland&nbsp; areas.&nbsp; For some&nbsp; of&nbsp; the&nbsp; species,&nbsp; mostly&nbsp; birds&nbsp; of&nbsp; hill&nbsp; and mountain&nbsp; forests and other natural&nbsp; habitats, the main&nbsp; conservation&nbsp; strategy&nbsp; implies&nbsp; precise boundaries&nbsp; extension&nbsp; of&nbsp; the&nbsp; current&nbsp; protected areas&nbsp; with&nbsp; management&nbsp; directed&nbsp; towards preserving&nbsp; natural&nbsp; habitats&nbsp; and&nbsp; reducing&nbsp; the utilization&nbsp; of&nbsp; resources.&nbsp; On&nbsp; the&nbsp; other&nbsp; hand,&nbsp; for most&nbsp; of&nbsp; the&nbsp; farmland&nbsp; and&nbsp; grassland&nbsp; species, especially in the lowlands, an effective strategy would&nbsp; be&nbsp; to&nbsp; define&nbsp; completely&nbsp; new&nbsp; and spacious&nbsp; protected&nbsp; areas&nbsp; oriented&nbsp; towards maintaining a favorable regime for management and&nbsp; landuse. The&nbsp; study&nbsp; demonstrates that there are&nbsp; great&nbsp; possibilities&nbsp; of&nbsp; using&nbsp; nonsystematically&nbsp; collected&nbsp; data&nbsp; from&nbsp; professiona l and&nbsp; amateur&nbsp; ornithologists,&nbsp; for&nbsp; application&nbsp; in species&nbsp; distribution&nbsp; modeling,&nbsp; but&nbsp; also emphasizes&nbsp; the&nbsp; need&nbsp; to&nbsp; launch&nbsp; extensive programs for systematic inventory, mapping and monitoring of common bird species.</p>