This dissertation examines the reaction of common stock prices to changes in bond ratings by Moody's Bond Service. The question is whether an announcement of a re-rating by Moody's is new information. There are only two studies of stock price reaction to bond changes and the results are conflicting. Pinches and Singleton (1978) [PS] concluded that any reaction comes well before the re-rating. Griffin and Sanvicente (1982) [GS] found that their portfolio test indicated that rating changes do convey new information. This was particularly true for downgradings. Both studies used monthly data and neither performed a statistical testing of residual reversals. PS provided a graph of the residuals which indicated the presence of a reversal trend. GS provided no information on this topic. This study, using daily data and the cumulative prediction error technique, finds that bond re-ratings offer new information. The results indicate that the market only partially anticipates the bond change. For the downgrades, the excess return on the announcement day is .6% which is statistically significant. The residuals reverse after the announcement day, but are not statistically significant. The upgrades do not have a significant reaction on the announcement day, but have a statistically significant negative reaction from day 1 to 10. The cumulative residual for days 1 to 10 is -2.8% with a test statistic of -3.85. This study finds as PS that there is some anticipation for both upgrades and downgrades. It extends their work by statistically testings the reversals after the announcement date and by testing the announcement day effect. There is significant abnormal return for the downgrades on the announcement day and the upgrades have a significant reversal in their residuals from day 1 to 10. This provides both support and extension of Griffin and Sanvicente's results and suggests that Moody's is offering the market new information.

Thesis (MComm)--Stellenbosch University, 2012. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This thesis examines the effect of liquidity on excess stock returns on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) over the period 2003 to 2011. It builds on the findings of previous studies that found size, value and momentum effects to be significant in explaining market anomalies by adding a further explanatory factor, namely liquidity. A standard CAPM, as well as a momentum-augmented Fama-French (1993: 3) model are employed to perform regression analyses to examine the effect of the four variables on excess stock returns. Results suggested that the log of the stock‘s market value best captured the size effect, the earnings yield best captured the value effect and the previous three month‘s returns best captured the momentum effect. Five liquidity proxies are used: the bid-ask spread first proposed by Amihud (1986: 223), turnover, the price impact measure of Amihud (2002: 31) and two zero return measures proposed by Lesmond et al. (1999: 1113). Despite prior studies having found liquidity to be an influential factor, this thesis found the opposite to be true. This finding remains robust, irrespective of the type of liquidity measure used. While size, value and momentum are found to be significant to a certain extent in explaining excess stock returns over the period, liquidity is not found to be significant. This is a surprising result, given that the JSE is seen as an emerging market, which is generally regarded as illiquid. This fact is exacerbated by the fact that the JSE is a highly concentrated and therefore skewed market that is dominated by only a handful of shares. Hence liquidity is expected to be of utmost importance. The result that liquidity is however not a priced factor on this market is therefore an important finding that requires further analysis to determine why this is the case. In addition, significant non-zero intercepts remained, indicating continued missing risk factors. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: In hierdie tesis word die effek van likiditeit op oormaat aandeel-opbrengste op die Johannesburg Effektebeurs (JEB) ondersoek gedurende die periode 2003 tot 2011. Dit bou voort op die bevindinge van vorige studies wat toon dat grootte, waarde en momentum beduidend is in die verklaring van mark onreëlmatighede deur 'n addisionele verklarende faktor, likiditeit, toe te voeg. 'n Standaard kapitaalbateprysingsmodel (KBPM) sowel as 'n momentum-aangepaste Fama-French (1993: 3) model word gebruik om deur middel van regressie analise die effek van die vier veranderlikes op oormaat aandeel-opbrengste te ondersoek. Die resultate toon dat die grootte effek die beste verteenwoordig word deur die logaritme van die aandeel se mark kapitalisasie, die verdienste-opbrengs verteenwoordig die waarde effek en die vorige drie-maande opbrengskoerse verteenwoordig die momentum effek die beste. Vyf likiditeitsveranderlikes is gebruik: bod-en-aanbod spreiding voorgestel deur Amihud (1986: 223), omset, die prys-impak maatstaf van Amihud (2002: 31) en twee nul-opbrengskoers maatstawwe voorgestel deur Lesmond et al. (1999: 1113). Afgesien van die feit dat vorige studies die effek van likiditeit beduidend vind, word die teenoorgestelde in hierdie tesis gevind. Hierdie bevinding bly robuus, ongeag van die likiditeitsveranderlike wat gebruik word. Terwyl bevind is dat grootte, waarde en momentum beduidend is tot 'n sekere mate in die verklaring van oormaat aandeel-opbrengste tydens die periode, is geen aanduiding dat likiditeit 'n addisionele beduidende verklarende faktor is gevind nie. Hierdie bevinding is onverwags, aangesien die JEB beskou word as 'n ontluikende mark, wat normaalweg illikied is. Hierdie feit word vererger deur dat die JEB hoogs gekonsentreerd is en dus 'n skewe mark is wat oorheers word deur slegs 'n hand vol aandele. Dus word verwag dat likiditeit 'n baie belangrike faktor behoort te wees. Die bevinding dat likiditeit nie 'n prysingsfaktor op hierdie mark is nie, is dus 'n belangrike bevinding en vereis verdere analise om vas te stel waarom dit die geval is. Addisioneel word beduidende nie-nul afsnitte verkry, wat aandui dat daar steeds risiko faktore is wat nog nie geïdentifiseer is nie.

The purpose of our study was to examine the relationship between the volatility of price multiples and the volatility of stock prices in the Swedish market from 2003 to 2012. Our focus was on the price-to-earnings ratio and the price-to-book ratio. Some previous studies showed a link between the price multiples and the volatility of stock prices, this made us question whether there should be a link between the volatility of the price multiples and the volatility of the stock prices. The importance of this subject is accentuated by the financial crisis, as we provide investors with information regarding the movements of price multiples and stock prices. Moreover, we test if the volatility of the price multiples can be used to create a prediction model for the volatility of stock prices. Also we fill the gap in the previous researches as there is no previous literature about this topic. We conducted a quantitative research using statistical tests, such as the correlation test and the linear regression test. For our data sample we chose the Sweden Datastream index. We first calculated the volatility using the GARCH model and then continued with our statistical tests. The results of our tests showed that there is a relationship between the volatility of the price multiples and the volatility of the stock prices in the Swedish market in the past ten years. Our findings show that the correlation coefficients vary across industries and over time in both strength and direction. The second part of our tests is concerned with the linear regression tests, mainly calculating the coefficient of determination. Our results show that the volatility of the price multiples do explain changes in the volatility of stock prices. Thus, the volatility of the P/E ratio and the volatility of the P/B ratio can be used in creating a prediction model for the volatility of stock prices. Nevertheless, we also find that this model is best suited when the economic situation is unstable (i.e. crisis, bad economic outlook) as both the correlation coefficient and the coefficient of determination had the highest values in the last five years, with the peak in 2008.

This thesis focuses on the relationship between short-term interest rate and stock prices. The main idea is that if interest-rate increases, it makes holding stocks less attractive relative to fixed income securities. Therefore, investors change the structure of their portfolios and switch capital from stocks to banks, which results in stock prices decrease. In our thesis, we apply GJR-GARCH-t-M model to study the impact of Czech interest rate (14-day PRIBOR) on the Prague Stock Exchange (the PX index). In contrast to the majority of research on this topic, we have found no impact of the PRIBOR rate on the PX index- neither on its mean nor on its volatility. We attribute the absence of a significant relationship to exceptional composition of the PX index. Furthermore, we have found that the recent crisis has significantly changed the behavior of the Czech stock market.

Este trabalho estuda o impacto do efeito manada do investidor institucional no preço futuro das ações no Brasil. Segundo a literatura internacional, ações compradas (vendidas) pela indústria de fundos de investimentos têm seus preços aumentados (diminuídos) no curto prazo, de 1 a 6 meses. Já no longo prazo, esse efeito se inverte, corroborando a hipótese desestabilizadora de preços do efeito manada dos fundos. Foram realizadas análises em painel com efeitos fixos dos dados mensais da carteira de todos os fundos de investimento brasileiros de 2009 a 2015 e os resultados corroboram parcialmente as expectativas, ações compradas pelos fundos, com persistência positiva, apresentam queda nos retornos futuros, e as ações vendidas pelos fundos, com persistência negativa, sofrem aumento de retornos futuros. Quando separada a variável persistência em persistência de compra e persistência de venda, os resultados são ainda mais surpreendentes, ocorre que as ações compradas pelos fundos apresentam um resultado futuro muito positivo, entretanto as ações vendidas pelos fundos apresentam um retorno futuro, tanto no curto quanto no longo prazo, superior ao das ações compradas. Fundos ativos e pequenos comprando e vendendo ações small caps apresentam um efeito ainda mais forte. / This paper studies the impact of institutional herding on stock prices in Brazil. According to international papers, stocks bought (sold) by the fund industry have their prices increased (decreased) in the short term, from 1 to 6 months. In the long term, this effect is reversed, corroborating the destabilizing hypothesis of the institutional herding on prices. Fixed effects panel analyses were performed with the monthly portfolio data of all stocks held by Brazilian investment funds from 2009 to 2015 and the results partially corroborate expectations, stocks purchased by the funds, with positive persistence, decline in future returns, and stocks sold by the funds, with negative persistence, suffer an increase of future returns. When we separate the persistence variable into persistence of purchase and persistence of sale, the results are even more surprising, it happens that the shares bought by the funds present a very positive result in the following months, however the shares sold by the funds present a future return, both in the short and in the long run, higher than the shares purchased. Small and active funds buying and selling small caps have an even stronger effect.

Bakgrund: Läkemedelsbranschen är idag en av de mest reglerade branscherna på marknaden. Forskning och utveckling har en stor betydelse för läkemedelsföretagen. För att lansera ett läkemedel krävs det att företagen genomför kliniska prövningar, deras utfall kan mycket väl avgöra företagens framtid. Problemformulering: hur stor inverkan har de olika faserna inom produktutvecklingen på aktiekurserna för företag i läkemedelsbranschen. Syfte: Syftet med uppsatsen är att undersöka hur marknaden reagerar när läkemedel som är under utveckling går in i de tre olika kliniska faserna.Metod: Studien baseras på kvantitativ data där ett bekvämlighetsval gjorts på sju stycken läkemedelsföretag. PR meddelanden där läkemedel i utveckling går in i fas-1, fas-2 och fas-3 kliniska prövningar har valts ut som enskilda händelsen i eventstudien som genomförts. Vi har studerat vad som händer 5 dagar före och 5 dagar efter att händelsen utspelar sig. Därefter har vi mätt marknadens reaktion genom beräkning av den anormala avkastningen. Slutsatser: Studien visar på att aktiemarknaden reagerar positivt på alla de tre kliniska faserna. Marknaden har en förmåga att övervärdera fas-1 studiers betydelse. Det finns tecken på att marknaden har svårt att värdera forskningen och utvecklingens riktiga värde. / Background: The pharmaceutical industry is a heavily regulated market. Costs for research and development are of utmost importance for the industry. To successfully launch a new drug requires clinical trials, and their outcomes could well determine the future of the company’s business. Problem formulation: how much influence do the various stages of product development have on the stock prices for companies in the pharmaceutical industry. Purpose: How does the market react when a drug under development undergoes the three different clinical phases. Method: The study is based on quantitative data. Seven pharmaceutical companies have been selected for this study. PR messages for when drugs in development go into phase-1, phase-2 and phase-3 clinical trials, have been selected as the event in focus for our study. We have studied what occurs five days before and five days after an event takes place. Next we measure the markets reaction by calculating the abnormal return. Conclusion: The study shows that the stock market reacts positively to all three clinical phases. The market has a way to overestimate phase-1 studies importance. There are signs that the market has difficulties evaluating R&Ds real value.

La presente tesis estudia la correlación negativa entre inflación y precios reales de las acciones. En primer lugar, muestro evidencia de que la inflación impone costos reales en la economía, en particular al disminuir los beneficios de las empresas, tal como sugiriera originalmente Miton Friedman. Segundo, sugiero que la inflación decrece los precios reales de las acciones dado que la probabilidad de sufrir estanflación en el futuro crece con la tasa de inflación (premio evento-extremo). Tercero, testeo si la evidencia macroeconómica respalda la relación positiva entre inflación e incertidumbre, y la relación entre inflación y el precio del riesgo (avesión relativa al riesgo). Cuarto, presento un estudio histórico, Alemania entre 1870 y 1935, para mostrar que es el premio por evento-extremo, y no illusion monetaria, lo que conlleva la correlación negativa entre inflación y precios reales de acciones. El último capítulo discute contagio en países emergentes.

Este trabalho estuda o impacto do efeito manada do investidor institucional no preço futuro das ações no Brasil. Segundo a literatura internacional, ações compradas (vendidas) pela indústria de fundos de investimentos têm seus preços aumentados (diminuídos) no curto prazo, de 1 a 6 meses. Já no longo prazo, esse efeito se inverte, corroborando a hipótese desestabilizadora de preços do efeito manada dos fundos. Foram realizadas análises em painel com efeitos fixos dos dados mensais da carteira de todos os fundos de investimento brasileiros de 2009 a 2015 e os resultados corroboram parcialmente as expectativas, ações compradas pelos fundos, com persistência positiva, apresentam queda nos retornos futuros, e as ações vendidas pelos fundos, com persistência negativa, sofrem aumento de retornos futuros. Quando separada a variável persistência em persistência de compra e persistência de venda, os resultados são ainda mais surpreendentes, ocorre que as ações compradas pelos fundos apresentam um resultado futuro muito positivo, entretanto as ações vendidas pelos fundos apresentam um retorno futuro, tanto no curto quanto no longo prazo, superior ao das ações compradas. Fundos ativos e pequenos comprando e vendendo ações small caps apresentam um efeito ainda mais forte. / This paper studies the impact of institutional herding on stock prices in Brazil. According to international papers, stocks bought (sold) by the fund industry have their prices increased (decreased) in the short term, from 1 to 6 months. In the long term, this effect is reversed, corroborating the destabilizing hypothesis of the institutional herding on prices. Fixed effects panel analyses were performed with the monthly portfolio data of all stocks held by Brazilian investment funds from 2009 to 2015 and the results partially corroborate expectations, stocks purchased by the funds, with positive persistence, decline in future returns, and stocks sold by the funds, with negative persistence, suffer an increase of future returns. When we separate the persistence variable into persistence of purchase and persistence of sale, the results are even more surprising, it happens that the shares bought by the funds present a very positive result in the following months, however the shares sold by the funds present a future return, both in the short and in the long run, higher than the shares purchased. Small and active funds buying and selling small caps have an even stronger effect.

The price elasticity of demand coefficient for a good or service is a measure of the sensitivity, or responsiveness, of the quantity demanded of a product to changes in the price of that product. The price elasticity of demand coefficients were generated for goods and services in nine different industries for the years 1972 to 1984. A simple linear demand function was employed, using the changes in the Consumer Price Index as a proxy for changes in price and Personal Consumption Expenditures, taken from the National Income and Product Accounts, as a proxy for quantity. Beta measures the sensitivity, or responsiveness, of a stock to the market. An industry average beta coefficient was generated for each of the nine industries over the time period, using the beta coefficients published by Value Line for firms which met certain criteria. In order to test the relationship between the price elasticity of demand and an industry average beta coefficient, a simple regression was performed using the beta coefficient as the dependent variable and the price elasticity of demand coefficient as the independent variable. The results broke down into 3 basic categories: those industries for which there seemed to be no relationship, those industries where there was a fairly strong probability that a relationship exists and the price elasticity of demand explains at least part of the variation in beta coefficients, and those industries where there was a very high probability that a relationship does exist and the variation in the price elasticity of demand coefficients substantially explained the variation in the industry average beta coefficients. The first category includes the food at home, tobacco, and shoe industries. The second category includes the men's clothing, the women's clothing, and the alcoholic beverages industries, and the third includes the automobile, airline, and fast-food restaurant industries.

Bakgrund: Enligt den makroekonomiska kvantitetsteorin påverkar penningmängdstillväxten prisnivån i en ekonomi. Mer specifikt säger kvantitetsteorin att ett positivt samband finns mellan tillväxten av penningmängden och prisnivån. I detta arbete undersöks om penningmängdstillväxten i penningmängdsdefintionen M3 har en påverkan på tillgångspriser i form av aktiepriser. Syfte: Studiens syfte är att undersöka om penningmängdstillväxten har en påverkan på aktiepriser.Metod Studien är kvantitativ. För att besvara studiens syfte användes statistisk analys i form av tidsserieregression. Resultat: I tre regressionsmodeller visade sig penningmängdstillväxten vara en signifikant variabel. Hypotesprövningar indikerade också på att ett samband föreligger mellan penningmängdstillväxt och prisnivån på OMXS30. Slutsats: Den sammantagna slutsatsen är att det inte kan uteslutas att penningmängdstillväxten har en påverkan på aktiepriser. / Background: According to the macroeconomic quantity theory of money, the growth in money affects the price level in an economy. More precisely, the quantity theory of money suggests that there is a positive relationship between the growth of money and price level. This study examines whether the money growth has an impact on asset prices in the form of stock prices.  Purpose: The purpose of this study is to examine if money growth has an impact on stock prices.Method The study is quantitative. To answer the purpose of the study, statistical analysis in the form av time series regression wasused.  Results: The variable for money growth was determined to be significant in three different regression models. Hypothesis tests also indicated that a relationship between money growth and the price level of OMXS30 was present.  Conclusion: The general conclusion is that the notion of money growth’s impact on stock prices cannot be ruled out.