Global records of temperature show a warming trend both in the atmosphere and in the oceans. Current climate change scenarios indicate that global temperature will continue to increase in the future. The effects will however be very different in different geographic regions. In northern Europe precipitation is projected to increase along with temperature. Increased precipitation will lead to higher river discharge to the Baltic Sea, which will be accompanied by higher inflow of allochthonous organic matter (ADOM) from the terrestrial system. Both changes in temperature and ADOM may affect community composition, altering the ratio between heterotrophic and autotrophic organisms. Climate changes may thus have severe and complex effects in the Baltic Sea, which has low species diversity and is highly vulnerable to environmental change. The aim of my thesis was to acquire a conceptual understanding of aquatic food web responses to increased temperature and inputs of ADOM. These factors were chosen to reflect plausible climate change scenarios. I performed microcosm and mesocosm experiments as well as a theoretical modeling study. My studies had a holistic approach as they covered entire food webs, from bacteria and phytoplankton to planktivorous fish. The results indicate a strong positive effect of increased temperature and ADOM input on the bacterial community and the microbial food web. However, at the prevailing naturally low nutrient concentrations in the Baltic Sea, the effect of increased temperature may be hampered by nutrient deficiency. In general my results show that inputs of ADOM will cause an increase of the bacterial production. This in turn can negatively affect the production at higher trophic levels, due to establishment of an intermediate trophic level, consisting of protozoa. However, the described effects can be counteracted by a number of factors, as for example the relatively high temperature optimum of fish, which will lead to a more efficient exploitation of the system. Furthermore, the length of the food web was observed to be a strong regulating factor for food web responses and ecosystem functioning. Hence, the effect of environmental changes may differ quite drastically depending on the number of trophic levels and community composition of the system. The results of my thesis are of importance as they predict possible ecological consequences of climate change, and as they also demonstrate that variables cannot be examined separately. / <p>This thesis was supported by grants from the Swedish Research Council FORMAS to AA and SL (217-2006-674), the Centre for Environmental Research in Umeå (CMF) to UB, AA and SL, and by the Swedish strategic research program ECOCHANGE to Umeå University.</p>

Anthropogenic environmental changes can serve as drivers for evolutionary responses in wild populations. To predict the long-term impact of anthropogenic changes on populations, it is crucial to understand the genetic effects caused by these disturbances. The Baltic Sea is considered to be one of the world’s most contaminated seas, and the increase of anthropogenic chemical pollution is a major threat to its ecosystems. This thesis assesses the impact of harbors and sewage treatment plants on physiological traits and genetic structure of resident populations of blue mussels at replicated sites in the Baltic Sea. The initial evaluation of the overall genetic pattern in blue mussel populations in the Swedish West Coast, the Baltic Proper and the Bothnian Sea found genetic differentiation between the three water basins and a low genetic differentiation within each basin, especially within the Baltic Proper. Despite the low genetic differentiation among blue mussels within the Baltic Proper, a parallel genetic differentiation associated with sewage treatment plant effluents was found in this basin. This included genomic regions with a high degree of differentiation between reference sites and sites affected by sewage plants effluent. This genetic differentiation is suggested to be due to post-dispersal selection acting in each generation. In contrast, no parallel genetic differentiation was associated with harbors. We identified five genomic regions in blue mussels, showing strong signs of selection, shared among three out of four replicated reference sites and sites affected by sewage effluents in the Baltic Proper i.e. Askö, Tvärminne and Karlskrona. An initial characterization of these genomic regions revealed functions related to immune and endocrine responses, oxidative stress and shell formation. Our results indicate that selection caused by sewage effluents involves multiple loci. The same genomic regions are found across different locations in the Baltic Proper but there are also unique genomic regions at each location. No genotoxic or histopathological effects were found among blue mussels from sewage effluent-affected areas but a higher frequency of histological abnormalities in the digestive gland were observed in mussels from harbors. / Evolutionära anpassningar till miljöstörningar i marina ekosystem: genetisk ekotoxikologi i Östersjön

Forskare förutspår att den globala uppvärmningen kommer att påverka Öster-sjön och omgivande landmassor med högre temperatur och mer nederbörd. En konsekvens av högre nederbörd är ökat läckage och avrinning av sötvatten från landmassorna vilket leder till högre näringstillgång i Östersjön. Ytterligare en konsekvens av ökad tillförsel av sötvatten är utspädningseffekten av salthalten i Östersjön. Dessa förändringar kommer att påverka Östersjöns ekosystem och arterna i. Hur väl ett ekologiskt samhälle klarar av en förändrad miljö beror på minst tre faktorer; diversitet, artsammansättning och interaktionsmönster mellan arter. Denna studie undersöker interaktionen mellan mört och abborre samt hur interaktionen påverkas då salthalt, näringstillgång och temperatur förändras. Med provfiskedata från elva lokaler har interaktionen beräknats med tidsserieanalys genom att använda en multivariat autoregressiv modell. Resultaten visar att både abborre och mört har negativ effekt på varandra. Dessutom är båda arterna kraftigt täthetsberoende. Hur interaktionen påverkas av förändringar av påverkansvariablerna har studerats grafiskt. Abborres effekt på mört är den enda interaktionen som med statistisk signifikans konstateras temperaturberoende. Resultaten från studien visar att den negativa effekt abborre har på mört blir mindre då temperaturen ökar. Effekten avtar linjärt då vattentemperaturen är 15 °C. Detta tyder på att abborres reglerande effekt på mört eventuellt kommer att minska under de förväntade klimatförändringarna. / The science community predict that the rising global temperature will affect the region of Scandinavia with more precipitation and as a consequence more runoff and leakage of nutrients to the Baltic Sea. During this century salinity in the Baltic Sea is expected to decrease with up to 1.5 - 2 g / kg due to dilution from the higher runoff volumes and the temperature is expected to increase with 3 - 5 °C. All these changes will affect the Baltic Sea ecosystem and the species within it. How well an ecological community can adapt to these changes is determined by the community stability which is based on at least three factors; diversity, species composition and interaction patterns between species. This study aims to investigate the interaction patterns between perch and roach, two well represented species along the Swedish coastline, and how these interaction patterns are effected by changes in salinity, watertemperature, and nutrient load. The study used a multivariate autoregressive model (MAR(1)), which is a linear model that can be used to investigate interaction patterns. The input in the MAR(1)-model was time series based on catch per unit effort of perch and roach from eleven different places along the Swedish east coast. Both perch and roach have a negative impact on the other species, also a strong density dependence for both species were found. Temperatures effect on the interaction; perch effect on roach, is the only one in this study that is statistically significant. Perch has a strong negative effect on roach when the temperature is around 15 °C. This negative effect decreases linearly with higher temperatures.

No description available.

Convective snow bands forming over the Baltic Sea can result in heavy precipitation along the Swedish east coast. Forecasting these events well is of great importance to prevent road traffic injuries, increased pressure at hospitals and cancelled bus traffic. This thesis project aims to evaluate the performance of the high-resolution non-hydrostatic convection permitting model HIRLAM ALADIN Reasearch on Mesoscale Operational NWP In Euromed (HARMONIE) in simulating convective snow bands. Its horizontal respresentation of precipitation rates, area, placement and timing was examined in a case study of two events. The case of 2007 during the 12-14th of November, formed over the Gulf of Finland and resulted in Nynäshamn receiving ≥ 55 mm precipitation during the 37 hours long event. Areas south of this precipitation maxima also recieved heavy precipitation. The second case, 21-23rd of March 2008, formed over the Gulf of Bothnia during north-easterly  winds and resulted in a total precipitation of 10 mm at Gävle. The precipitation maxima was observed offshore, north of Gävle, with ≥ 16 mm precipiation in 34 hours. Convective snow bands were also observed over Vänern and Vättern in both cases.  HARMONIE simulated convective snow bands well in terms of intensity, timing, placement and area, in both cases, compared to datasets from radar, radar with merged gauge data and separate observational data from weather stations. Areas south of the local maxima at Nynäshamn in the case of 2007 were however overestimated by a total of 10-15 mm, most likely due to a simulated shift in wind direction during some of the most intense hours. In the case of 2008 the model also captured weak convective snow bands at Vänern and Vättern accurately in terms of precipitation area, timing and accumulated precipitation. Further case studies of snow bands are however necessary to obtain a more comprehensive view of the performance of HARMONIE.

When implementing major European transport corridors, such as the Core network corridors (CNC) which is a part of the European Trans-European Network for Transports (TEN-T), the number of stakeholders affected is huge. A governance framework for the CNC’s implementation was introduced in EU Regulation No. 1315/2013, and is now being enacted. Sustainable development and stakeholder involvement are crucial areas in the implementation. This interview study investigated the need for complementary governance, here meaning governance in addition to the governance framework set in the regulation. The interviews involved 23 individuals from the Baltic Sea Region, who are affiliated to the four categories public authority, infrastructure organisation/company, private company and other organisation. The results confirm the importance of an inclusive approach. Further, the results showed a need to ensure that all three social, economic and ecological dimensions of sustainability are considered. Summarising the interview results, four areas for attention in the further CNC implementation process were identified: more and directed information, extended involvement of private sector transport stakeholders, extended involvement of regional and local stakeholders, and involvement of stakeholders located geographically outside the immediate corridor. Complementary governance can be a tool to address these areas, as governance structures and processes can involve stakeholders and steer towards desired outcomes. The interviewees own ideas for complementary governance are presented in this paper. The CNC implementation is currently an on-going process and these results will be further utilised in the process, as a basis for stakeholder discussions of changes in practice.

<p>NR 20140805</p>

Eutrophication of the Baltic Sea has been an issue for decades and the pollution constantly continues with oxygen deficient bottoms and a damaged marine life as a result. One of the main causes of eutrophication are elevated levels of the nutrient phosphorus. Phosphorus leaks to the sea from various human activities such as agriculture, animal farming and sewage. In Sweden, the onsite wastewater treatment systems are a big problem since they load the Baltic Sea with nearly as much phosphorus as all Swedish municipal wastewater treatment plants. The need for a reduced impact on the Baltic Sea is major and the individual wastewater treatment systems must therefore be looked over. While phosphorus is a contributing factor to eutrophication, it is one of the most important nutrients for all life. Phosphorus builds up our DNA, helps transport of various substances in and out of our cells and provides energy to the cell's processes. We would simply not be able to survive without phosphorus. We ingest phosphorus through the food we eat, which in turn is dependent on fertilizers containing phosphorus. Phosphorus is mined from phosphate ore and the majority of it is used to produce fertilizers. Unfortunately, phosphate ore is not a finite resource and in the last few years it has been realized that the economically extractable phosphorus is a dwindling resource. To be able to produce food for the world's growing population, we need to find ways to recycle phosphorus. In individual drainage systems there is a large potential to catch up phosphorus and then reuse it on agricultural land. This thesis deals with the problems of onsite wastewater treatment systems and suggests measures to improve their status. Ways to recycle phosphorus in combination with having a well-functioning drainage is being investigated and difficulties about the regulations are being discussed. To recover phosphorus and at the same time reduce the burden on the environment should be seen as an incredibly important action, since our sea’s health is acute but lack of the nutrient could have devastating consequences.

For decades the Baltic Sea has been subject to eutrophication due to heavy anthropogenic nutrient loads on the aquatic ecosystem. Quantitative projections of its effects require an understanding of its driving mechanisms, i.e., the hydrodynamics that are responsible for the physical transport and mixing and the biogeochemical nutrients pathways within the algal ecosystem and between the particulate and dissolved phases in the water and in the sediments. A simple basin-scale hydrodynamic framework is set for the Gulf of Finland to test different descriptions of the biogeochemical transformations and determine the most robust modelling strategy. A recently developed criterion to determine the occurrence of anoxic events, based on the amount of fresh carbon detritus in the sediments is implemented in comparison with the classical criterion based on the oxygen concentration in the bottom water. Time-averaging of the hydrodynamics over larger than daily intervals is proved to hinder the capture of rapid mixing events jeopardizing irremediably the water quality simulation. The new carbon based criterion for anoxia shows a better dynamic response and is less sensitive to the model’s internal parameters. An internal source in the sediments correlated to the amount of fresh detritus, to represent the release of iron-bound phosphorus is confirmed as a versatile modelling assumption.

Eutrophication is a major problem in the Baltic Sea and is the result mainly of the increase of the anthropogenic nutrient loading. Thus, the links among water quality, sediments, and eutrophication have to be understood in order to predict the consequences of our actions and of the climate change on the Baltic Sea. Therefore, water quality models that take into account the hydrodynamics have to be developed to help policy makers. In that perspective, the Kiirikki model, an ecosystem and sediment model, coupled to a box approach has been used to describe the water quality of the Baltic Sea. The latter has been divided into twelve sub-basins according to the topography, each of them separated into two vertical layers. The Kiirikki model has been implemented on each sub-basin and the hydrodynamics are used to link sub-basins between them. After calibration, it can be seen that the model results are consistent with the monitoring data for the southern part, even if the dissolved inorganic nitrogen levels are too high during the winter and some phase shifts are observed. For the northern part, the primary production is well modelled but there is an offset concerning the dissolved inorganic nutrient. Thus, it can be concluded that the implementation of the Kiirikki model is a realistic tool to describe the water quality and eutrophication of the Baltic Sea. However, the differences indicate that the Baltic Sea model cannot be use for policy making yet and more work is needed to improve the model such as a global sensitivity analysis as well as the use of site specific parameters.