Measuring and tracking the employee turnover rate is a crucial part when evaluating a company’s performance. An important part of this is measuring the employment duration within an organization. The purpose of this report is to investigate if employment duration in a food retail company can be explained by predetermined variables using multiple linear regression. Data from five years ago until today has been collected and processed to analyze and fit the best choice of the linear model. Gender, employment rate, industry experience and age are the predictors used for conducting the analysis. The result shows that a low linear correlation can be seen between employment duration and the explanatory variables: gender, employment rate, industry experience and age. In the discussion, the results are analyzed as well as potential problems and improvements of the regression.

本研究第一部份為確定性的資產訂價模型，探討證券交易所得稅與證券交易稅對股票價格的影響。如同資產價格方程式，其均衡價格為未來各期股利之貼現值的總和。所不同的是一般資產價格方程式之貼現率即為市場利率，但本研究特別引進資產存量動態調整方程式與政府預算限制式，說明除了市場利率以外，強調證券交易所得稅、證券交易稅與代表性個人之週轉率均為影響貼現率的主要因素。由於模型描述代表性個人具有遠瞻(forward-looking)的特性，所以當期暫時性的稅率變動不會影響股票價格，會影響股票價格的只有未來的租稅政策。另外，本研究亦得到與李嘉圖定理相似的中立性假說：只要租稅現值保持固定不變，即使資本利得稅與證券交易稅如何調整與變動，都不會影響其均衡價格。 為了瞭解股票週轉率的函數型態。假設其為下一期股票報酬率與租稅的函數，以台灣地區1982年1月至2001年1月的月資料，使用兩階段的研究方法分別探討租稅對股票報酬率與週轉率的影響，目的是確認：租稅除了會直接的影響股票價格外，是否會透過週轉率而間接的影響股票價格。因此本研究第二部份摒除週轉率與政府政策為外生的假設，另以實證分析租稅對股票報酬率與週轉率的影響，以補基本理論模型之不足，並進行有趣議題之分析。 首先由Ganger因果關係檢定得知：週轉率領先於政府訂定的證券交易稅稅率，亦即週轉率過去的落遲項會影響到當期的證券交易稅稅率；且由相關係數得知二者呈正相關。故政府訂定的證券交易稅稅率視過去的週轉率而定，過去的週轉率愈高，政府當期訂定的證券交易稅稅率愈高，以企圖抑制股市的不健全發展。再者，由於台灣股票報酬率的時間序列資料具有自我迴歸條件非均齊變異數(autoregressive condition heteroskedasticity，簡稱ARCH)的現象，故異於其他相關研究的實證方法，另經由比較各種ARCH族模型的實證結果，選取出一套考慮風險貼水(risk premium)之最佳配適的兩階段ARCH(1)-M模型進行實證分析。 實證結果顯示：任何一個ARCH(1)-M的模型，皆存在顯著的風險貼水效果。而預期未來的與當期的證券交易稅對當期的股票報酬率均為直接的負面影響，但以前者影響較為顯著，後者的影響則視顯著水準而定，因此政府調降或調高當期的證券交易稅稅率，與股市之榮枯並無確定性的直接關係，此結果與一般學者的觀點不謀而合。此外，當期的週轉率租稅彈性為-0.0646，其值顯著為負，且絕對值小於一，表示缺乏彈性，雖然租稅會間接地透過週轉率影響股票價格，但影響並不大，而且政府若鑒於過去的週轉率太高，要以租稅抑制當期的股市投機風氣，其成效亦不彰。至於證券交易所得稅因宣告(或施行)的期間極為短暫，故對當期的股票報酬率影響不顯著。換言之，風險趨避程度、證券交易稅、預期報酬率、週轉率與股票價格之間具有相互連動的關係。是故，證券交易稅對股票價格的影響，視風險趨避程度、證券交易稅稅率、週轉率之租稅彈性與週轉率之預期報酬彈性而定。 除此以外，本研究第三部份亦考慮政策的不確定性與政策的變動以建立不確定性的資產訂價模型，模擬分析結果顯示：若原先政府施行的租稅過程愈具持續性，則一旦政府的租稅政策瞬間改變時，投資人愈無法將股票價格-股利比值對租稅的反應，事先地考慮於股票投資的決策當中，所以租稅政策衝擊的反應較大。簡言之，投資人預期的稅率與實際施行的新稅率愈相近時，租稅政策衝擊的反應最小。因此第三部份的結果亦與第一部份的基本數學模型(認為當期暫時性之稅率變動不會影響當期的股票價格)，以及第二部份的實證結果(發現當期證券交易稅稅率變動與當期股市之榮枯並無確定性之關係)相一致。 第一章 緒論……………………………………………………………………001 1.1 研究動機與目的………………………………………………………001 1.2 研究方法………………………………………………………………004 1.3 研究結構………………………………………………………………011 第二章 我國證券交易課稅制度沿革…………………………………………014 2.1 我國證券交易所得稅制度沿革………………………………………014 2.2 我國證券交易稅制度沿革……………………………………………021 2.3 各國證券交易課稅制度比較…………………………………………024 第三章 證券交易課稅的文獻探討……………………………………………031 3.1 證券交易所得稅的文獻探討…………………………………………031 3.1.1 關於證券市場的文獻探討……………………………………031 3.1.2 關於投資及儲蓄的文獻探討…………………………………040 3.1.3 關於經濟效益的文獻探討……………………………………042 3.1.4 關於稅制及稅收的文獻探討…………………………………046 3.2 證券交易稅的文獻探討………………………………………………050 3.2.1 國外文獻探討…………………………………………………050 3.2.2 國內文獻探討…………………………………………………053 第四章 確定性的資產訂價模型……………………………………………… 058 4.1 基本理論模型…………………………………………………………058 4.2 租稅效果………………………………………………………………064 4.3 中立性的假說…………………………………………………………069 第五章 台灣實證研究—資料處理與分析…………………………………… 073 5.1 資料來源與說明………………………………………………………074 5.2 檢定……………………………………………………………………076 5.2.1 單根檢定—ADF 檢定…………………………………………076 5.2.2 常態分配檢定…………………………………………………080 5.2.3 自我相關檢定—Ljung-Box Q(L-B Q)檢定…………………081 5.2.4 序列相關 LM 檢定……………………………………………082 5.2.5 ARCH LM 檢定…………………………………………………082 5.2.6 Granger 因果關係檢定………………………………………086 5.2.7 當期股票報酬率與未來各期證券交易稅稅率的相關係數…093 第六章 台灣實證研究—兩階段 ARCH 族實證模型………………………… 095 6.1 基本條件平均數方程式的設定與分析………………………………095 6.1.1 傳統自我迴歸模型……………………………………………095 6.1.2 自我迴歸模型的殘差分析……………………………………096 6.2 條件變異數方程式的設定……………………………………………101 6.2.1 ARCH 模型……………………………………………………102 6.2.2 ARCH-M 模型…………………………………………………103 6.3 估計方法與檢定………………………………………………………105 6.4 第一階段之股票報酬率的 ARCH 族模型估計與分析………………106 6.4.1 實證模型………………………………………………………106 6.4.2 實證結果與分析………………………………………………113 6.5 兩階段模型的估計與分析……………………………………………114 6.5.1 實證模型………………………………………………………114 6.5.2 實證結果與分析………………………………………………119 第七章 不確定性的資產訂價模型…………………………………………… 130 7.1 不確定性的租稅政策與政策變動……………………………………130 7.2 模型的模擬與分析……………………………………………………136 第八章 結論與未來的研究方向………………………………………………151 8.1 結論……………………………………………………………………151 8.2 未來的研究方向………………………………………………………155 附錄A 股票價格函數滿足終極條件的證明…………………………………158 附錄 B 股票價格函數為單一固定點的證明…………………………………160 參考文獻…………………………………………………………………………163 / This paper works out the effect of capital gains tax and stock transaction tax on share prices. In the generality of cases, the equilibrium share price is shown to equal the discounted sum of future dividends. In this paper, we emphasize that tax policy is a driving force in determining the discount rate and market turnover rate also plays an important role in determining the effects of policy. We show that temporary changes in policy have little effect on current stock price; only perceived policy in the future has price effect. We also show that a permanent shift in tax policy exerts only level effect, but no growth effect, on stock price. Using monthly data from Taiwan, our empirical results indicate that changes in stock turnover rate often leads changes in transaction tax, and both are positively correlated. This result implies that government policy often reacts to market volatility instead of the other way around. Since the data exhibit autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity, we employ a two stage ARCH(1)-M model as our empirical strategy. Our results show that the price effect of transaction tax is significant, with the expected change in future tax especially so. The results also indicate that expected stock returns have positive and important effects on market turnover rate. Overall, the policy effect on stock price depends on the tax rate, the degree of risk aversion, sensitivity of turnover rate to policy and the expected stock return. The analysis so far assumes that the tax policy is certain, when in fact it is hardly the case. The 1989 fiasco and the recent flip-flop of the government are vivid testimonies of the volatile nature of the government policy. The third part extends the model to a stochastic environment and examines the consequences when a long-standing unequivocal tax policy suddenly and unexpectedly shifts to a stochastic regime. This type of regime shift seems to characterize the recent experience in Taiwan. Our results show that the shape of the pricing function under stochastic regimes depend on the persistence of the tax process. For tax rates that are lower than the unconditional mean of the process, the price is lower than the certainty case because the expected tax rate is higher over this interval. As the tax process becomes more persistent, the expected duration of the tax rate lengthens and the pricing function becomes negatively sloped. Notice that the slope of the pricing function (i.e., the tax elasticity of the price-dividend ratio) is flatter than the certainty case because in a stochastic regime consumers always take into account the possibility of tax changes, no matter how small the probability is.

本研究旨在探討學校設施品質與教育成果之關係，以臺灣區公立普通高級中學共計127所學校為研究對象，並依各縣（市）行政區的國立和縣（市）立校數比例，分層抽取74所學校作為研究樣本。 本研究的自變項為學校設施品質。依變項為教育成果，包括教師態度、教師異動行為、學生態度、學生偏差行為和學生學業成就。控制變項為學生基礎學力和社經地位。為蒐集相關資料，本研究自編「學校設施品質與師生態度問卷」，以教師為問卷填答對象，總共發出問卷888份，回收772份，回收率為86.94%。另編製「教師異動情形、學生家庭經濟狀況及學生紀律行為調查表」，以校長為調查對象，總共發出調查表74份，回收67份，回收率為90.54%。學生學業成就係以各校參加大考中心辦理之學科能力測驗平均成績的原始級分，轉換為20級參照等級作為代表。 本研究主要目的在了解臺灣區公立普通高級中學學校設施品質現況，以及學校設施品質與教師組織承諾、教師異動行為、學生學習態度、學生偏差行為和學生學業成就的關係，並試圖建立學校設施品質與教育成果關係模式。研究者使用SPSS for Windows 18.0版和LISREL 8.52版，進行描述性統計、相關分析、變異數分析和因果路徑分析等統計分析，獲得結論如下： 一、臺灣區公立普通高中的學校設施品質屬於中高程度，校際之間有落差。 二、「學校類型」、「學校轄屬」、「學生性別偏向」、「學校規模」和「學校密度」等背景變項，對於學校設施品質有所影響。「學校密度」最能反映學校設施品質。 三、學校設施品質與教師的組織承諾呈中度正相關。「舒適的教室環境」、「充足的E化設備」和「完善的建築機能」等學校設施品質因素能有效預測教師的組織承諾。 四、學校設施品質與學生的學習態度呈中度正相關。「舒適的教室環境」、「良好的設施維護」和「完善的建築機能」等學校設施品質因素，能有效預測學生的學習態度。 五、學校設施品質與學生偏差行為呈低度負相關。學校在「完善的建築機能」表現愈好，學生偏差行為就愈少。 六、學校設施品質與學生學業成就呈低度正相關，「多元的學習空間」能有效預測學生學業成就。 七、在學生學業成就上，學校設施品質對於基礎學力低的學校比基礎學力高者，有更大的正面影響力。 八、學校設施品質對於學生學業成就的影響來自間接效果，由「教師態度」、「學生態度」和「學生偏差行為」扮演中介的角色。 九、學校設施品質與教育成果關係的實證模式經驗證確立，學校背景變項影響學校設施品質，學校設施品質直接影響教師態度和學生態度，並以間接方式影響學生行為和學生學業成就。 最後，依據研究結論提出建議，供作學校設施規劃設計、教育決策者政策制定及未來研究之參考。 / The purpose of this study was to explore the relationship between the quality of school facilities and educational outcomes. The quality of school facilities is measured using five elements, viz. comfortable classroom, facilities maintenance, IT equipment, multiple learning spaces, and architecture functions. The population of this study was 127 public senior high schools in Taiwan, and 74 schools in the population was stratified chosen as samples. Six major data components were used to complete this study. The first component is the quality of school facilities, the second component is the attitude of the teachers, and the third component is the attitude of the students. To obtain this information, 888 teachers were invited to complete the Assessment of School Facilities Quality and the Attitude of Teachers and Students Questionnaire, where 772 questionnaires were returned. The return rate was 86.94%. The fourth and the fifth components are the turnover rate of the teachers and demerit rate of the students of each school which were obtained from principle survey. The sixth component is the score rank from the General Scholastic Ability Test for each senior high school in Taiwan. A series of statistical methods such as descriptive statistics, Pearson product-moment correlation, ANOVA, multiple regression analysis, and structural equation model, were conducted to analyze the collected data. It is found that school facilities quality is related to educational outcomes. Students performed better in schools with good quality of school facilities. The conclusions of this study can be illustrated as followed: 1. The averaged quality of school facilities is moderate-high level for public senior high schools in Taiwan; however the quality differences among schools do exist. 2. School context variables, viz. school type, school objection, student sex, school size, and school density will all affect the quality of school facilities. 3. Quality of school facilities is positively correlated to teacher organizational commitment, student learning attitude, and student academic achievement. Nonetheless, quality of school facilities is negatively correlated to student rule-violating behavior and teacher turnover rate, whereas the latter is not significant. 4. In terms of student academic achievement, quality of school facilities has more significant influence on schools with students having lower academic performance than those with higher academic performance. 5. Quality of school facilities directly affects teacher organizational commitment and student learning attitude. Meanwhile, quality of school facilities indirectly affects student academic achievement and student rule-violating behavior. In this study, relationships between quality of school facilities and several educational outcomes were examined. Some significant results were observed and suggestions on possible adjustments were made. Hopefully these results and suggestions can be useful to school planners and related government officials for future reference.

Denna studies syfte var att analysera sex nyckeltal och se vilka samband dessa hade på riskbuffert sysselsatt kapital. Studien utfördes på 796 små byggbolag i Sverige under perioden 2009–2016 med hjälp av en binär logistisk regressionsanalys. Som teoretisk referensram användes working capital management och finansiell oro. Studien resulterade i att kapitalets omsättningshastighet, skuldränta och rörelsekapital/totala tillgångar uppvisade signifikanta negativa samband med riskbuffert sysselsatt kapital. Räntetäckningsgrad och avkastning på totalt kapital resulterade i signifikanta positiva samband med riskbuffert sysselsatt kapital. Skuldsättningsgrad resulterade intressant nog i ett icke signifikant negativt samband. Slutligendiskuterades byggbolagens sannolikhet för finansiell oro utifrån respektive nyckeltal. / The aim of this study was to examine the relation between six independent key ratios with riskbuffer on capital employed. The study was conducted on 796 small construction enterprises in Sweden during 2009–2016 with a binary logistic regression model. As theoretical framework, working capital management and financial distress was applied. The study concluded that the capital turnover rate, interest payable and working capital to total assets had significant negative relations with riskbuffer on capital employed. However, the interest cover ratio and return on total assets were both significant positively related withriskbuffer on capital employed. Debt-to-equity ratio resulted interestly enough in a nonsignificant negative relation. Lastly, with regards taken to every respective key ratio, the probability of financial distress among the construction firms was discussed.

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