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Uncertainty in predictive ecology : consequence of choices in model constructionAldebert, Clément 29 November 2016 (has links)
Les systèmes écologiques sont des systèmes complexes qui ne peuvent pas être d´écrits par un unique modèle mathématique. De nombreux modèles peuvent être construits pour un même système, selon les internets du modélisateur et ses choix dans la construction du modèle. Quel est l’impact de ces choix dans la construction du modèle sur les prédictions de la dynamique des systèmes écologiques et les informations qu’elles fournissent sur la résilience de ces systèmes est la question générale qui guide le travail présente dans cette thèse. Cette thèses focalise sur un choix entre formulations de modèle basées sur des mécanismes biologiques et qui décrivent les données empiriques avec la même efficacité. Ces modèles sont proches l’un de l’autre, donc on s’attendrait `a ce que leurs prédictions soient similaires. Cependant, nous montrons avec un exemple générique de modèle prédateur-proie que des formulations similaires du processus de prédation peuvent prédire des dynamiques qualitativement différentes en terme de: (i) nombre et type d'états stables, et (ii) réponse et résilience du système face à une perturbation extérieure. Ces différences dans les prédictions du modèle sont expliquées par une analyse mathématique détaillée du modèle prédateur-proie. Ensuite, ce modèle est étendu à des réseaux trophiques compos´es de dizaines d’espèces. La complexité de ces réseaux (nombre d'espèces et d’interactions) explique leur persistance, alors que leur dynamique temporelle est fortement affectée par la fonction utilisée pour modéliser la prédation. Des méthodes sont ´également proposées pour quantifier la sensibilités d’un modèle. Finalement, nous montrons que si un minimum de détails biologiques sont pris en compte, des modèles prédateurs-proies sont moins sensibles `a la formulation de la prédation. Ceci nous donne des pistes pour gérer les incertitudes dans la construction d’un modèle, qui sont intrinsèques à la complexité des systèmes naturels. / Ecological systems are complex systems which cannot be described by a single mathematical model. Multiple modelsof a same system can be built, depending on modeller’s interests and on its choices during model construction. Howfar these choices in model construction can affect the predicted dynamics of ecological systems and the informationthey provide on their resilience? is the general question that leads the research presented in this thesis. This thesisfocuses on a choice between model formulations that are based on biological mechanisms and describe empiricaldata with the same accuracy. These models are close to each other, so they are expected to predict similar systemdynamics. However, we show through a generic example of predator-prey model that similar formulations of thepredation process can predict qualitatively different system dynamics in term of: (i) number and type of stablestates, and (ii) system response to external disturbance and its potential for recovery. These differences in modelpredictions are explained by a detailed mathematical analysis of the predator-prey model. Next, this model isextended to complex food webs made of tens of species. The complexity of these networks (number of species andinteractions) drives their persistence, whereas their temporal dynamics is strongly affected by the function used tomodel predation. Methods to quantify model sensitivity are also proposed. Finally, we show that if a minimumlevel of biological details is included, predator-prey models are less sensitive to predation formulation. This providea clue to deal with uncertainties in model construction, which are intrinsic to the complexity of natural systems.
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Importance of fish community structure, nutrients and browning for shallow lake ecosystem dynamics : A modelling perspectiveKarlberg, Ylva January 2019 (has links)
In a changing climate, it is increasingly important to be able to model environmental effects on food webs, and to do that, one must have appropriate dynamic models. I present a shallow lake ecosystem model where producers, grazers, carnivores, piscivores, and detritivores are coupled through resource (light, nutrients and detritus) fluxes between the benthic and pelagic habitats and through carnivore life history events (ontogenetic habitat and diet shifts). The two habitats each contain primary producers, grazers, carnivores and detritivores. Within the habitats, there is strong top-down regulation, but across habitat boundaries, bottom-up interactions drive production. In the absence of piscivores, stage-structured carnivores cause intriguing patters of alternative stable states. Notably, the model predicts a lesser dependence on benthic production with detritus presence. Model predictions are largely in agreement with empirical studies. The results have implications for management of freshwater, and for the interpretation of previous models.
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Förändring av pappersegenskaper vid lagring under dragspänningLarsson, Johan, Sonemalm, Annica January 2006 (has links)
<p>Sammanfattning</p><p>I en pappersrulle är de yttre lagren utsatta för dragspänning. Om det finns variationer i rullens diameter i form av valkar finns det risk för att papperet förlängs irreversibelt i dessa positioner och orsaka slappa stråk. Den deformation som uppstår vid långvarig belastning av papper kallas krypning.</p><p>Uppgiften i detta arbete var, att på lab., simulera valkar genom att utsätta pappersremsor för konstant dragspänning av olika storlekar. En av frågeställningarna var om egenskapsförändringar kan påvisas när papper utsätts för konstant inspänningskraft under en längre tid. De parametrar som undersökts var töjning, kryphastighet och relaxation, även mätningar på papperets mekaniska egenskaper dragstyrka, brottöjning och dragstyvhet har utförts i detta arbete.</p><p>De papperskvalitéer som undersöktes var 71g/m2 MG-papper, 80g/m2 optisk liner och 135g/m2 liner. Inspänningskraften som papperet utsattes för motsvarade 10 %, 30 % och 50 % av dragstyrkan hos varje kvalité. Provremsor belastades under ett, fyra och sju dygn, för att sedan relaxeras.</p><p>Resultaten visar att dragstyrkan och dragstyvheten inte påverkas av att papperet varit utsatt för en inspänningskraft. Däremot blev brottöjningen mindre ju större den irreversibla förlängningen hos papperet var. Samtliga papperskvalitéer relaxerar tillbaka till ursprungslängd efter fyra dygn när belastningen var 10 %. Om belastningen däremot var 30 % och 50 % uppstod en irreversibel förlängning redan efter ett dygn. Vid belastning under sju dygn uppstod permanent förlängning hos samtliga kvalitéer och belastningar utom MG-papper 10 % som relaxerade till ursprungslängd. MG-papper är därmed den papperskvalité som står emot krypning bäst och är på så sätt minst känslig för valkar i pappersrullen.</p><p>En högre belastning ger en högre kryphastighet och större irreversibel förlängning. För att undvika uppkomsten av slappa stråk bör därför banspänningen som används vid upprullningen av papperet inte vara större än 10 % av dragstyrkan hos papperskvalitén.</p><p>Hur länge papperet är belastat påverkar också den slutliga irreversibla förlängningen. Det innebär att lagring ökar risken för att slappa stråk kommer att uppstå i efterbearbetningen.</p> / <p>Abstract</p><p>In a paper roll the outer layers are under tensile stress. If there are variations in the roll diameter there is a risk that the thicker parts of the roll will make the paper elongate more in these regions, because they will be under a higher tensile stress. This may cause baggy webs. The deformation that occurs during a long time under tensile stress is called creep.</p><p>Experiments have been performed with strips of paper that have been exposed to a constant load and constant climate (50 % RH, 23°C). The properties that have been examined are creep strain, creep rate and relaxation after creep. Studies of tensile strength, tensile stiffness and strain at break have also been made.</p><p>The paper qualities that have been examined were 71g/m2 MG-paper, 80g/m2 liner and 135g/m2 liner. The paper qualities in this study are exposed to loads that correspond to 10 %, 30 % and 50 % of their tensile strength. The paper strips were under load during 24h, four and seven days.</p><p>The results in these studies show that tensile strength and tensile stiffness remains the same after the paper has been exposed to a constant load. The strain at break, on the other hand, decreases with increasing irreversible elongation of the paper strips. All paper qualities recover to the initial length after four days under a load of 10 % of the tensile strength. If the load corresponds to 30 % or 50 % of the tensile strength a permanent elongation arose as early as after 24h. After seven days, only the MG-paper recovered to the initial length if the load corresponded to 10 % of the tensile strength. This means that MG-paper is more resistant to creep then the liner qualities. Consequently, MG-paper is the paper quality that is least sensitive to ridges.</p><p>A higher load gives a higher creep rate and larger irreversible elongation of the paper. To avoid baggy webs to arise, the load should not exceed 10 % of the paper’s tensile strength when winding the paper roll. The time under which the paper is under load also influence the final irreversible elongation. Therefore, to avoid baggy webs the paper roll shouldn’t be stored for too long.</p>
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Predators in low arctic tundra and their impact on community structure and dynamicsAunapuu, Maano January 2004 (has links)
<p>The abundance of predators and their impact on ecosystem dynamics is a vividly discussed topic in current ecology. In my studies, incorporating field observations, field experiments and theoretical modeling, I explored the importance of predators and predation in a low arctic tundra ecosystem in northern Norway. This involved observing the abundance and spatial activity of predators (raptors and small mustelids); manipulating the abundance of predators (spiders and birds) in an arthropod community; and exploring the theoretical consequences of intraguild predation on the coexistence among predators.</p><p>The results show that predation is important both in the arthropod assemblage and, depending on the productivity of the community, in the vertebrate assemblage. In arthropod communities predators are at least as abundant as their prey, whereas in the vertebrate part of ecosystem, predators are substantially less abundant than their prey. Still, in both cases predators had strong impact on their prey, influencing the abundance of prey and the species composition of prey assemblages. The impact of predation cascaded to the plant community both in the reticulate and complex arthropod food web and in the linear food chain-like vertebrate community. In the vertebrate-based community we could even observe the long time scale effect on plant community composition.</p><p>Within the predator community, exploitation competition and intraguild predation were the structuring forces. As the arthropod communities consist of predators with different sizes, intraguild predation is an energetically important interaction for top predators. As a consequence, they reduce the abundance of intermediate predators and the impact of intermediate predators on other prey groups. Moreover, being supported by intermediate predators, top predators can have stronger impact themselves on other prey groups.</p><p>In vertebrate communities, intraguild predation seems to be unimportant as energetic link, instead it manifests as an extreme version of interference competition. Therefore intraguild predation reduces the likelihood of coexistence, as it is due limited prey diversity and intense exploitative competition already precarious in the low arctic tundra.</p><p>In conclusion, predators have strong impact on their prey, especially in the more productive parts of the low arctic tundra. This applies even to the food webs with complex and reticulate structure, and these effects carry through the community both in the short time scale of population growth and on the long time scale of population generations.</p>
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Alltagsgattungen und der Ort von Kultur : Sprachwissenschaftliche und kulturanalytische Studien anhand von Milchverpackungen in Deutschland und SchwedenTienken, Susanne January 2008 (has links)
The present dissertation examines how culture in terms of webs of significance comprises even everyday genres, and how everyday genres in turn partake in creating cultural contexts. The theoretical cornerstones of this study are to be found in a dialogical notion of context and a semiotic notion of culture. Furthermore, the study benefits from the analytical concept of communicative genre by which texts can be set in the broader context of societal or socio-cultural relevancy. The methodological framework – with contrastive viewing as an overall heuristic approach – has been developed by combining elements from linguistic hermeneutics, literary cultural analysis, and critical discourse analysis. The study shows that the most significant trait of Swedish milk package texts is the recontextualization of national historical topics, closely entangled with elements of school discourse and children’s literature. This endows the texts with a certain socio-cultural meaning, even though this meaning is dependent on other interactive resources. However, on recent milk packages, changes of communicative patterns can be seen, indicating socio-cultural change. The most significant trait of German milk packages is – besides the ubiquitous use of fresh generating an advertising context – the recontextualization of the fictionalizing topos of locus amoenus, closely intertwined with control and surveillance. The contrastive viewing of 19th-century texts in the dissertation makes clear that contemporary German milk packages still imply urban-bourgeois perspectives on rurality. Finally, the study shows that culture in terms of webs of significance has no location where it is, but a location where it is represented – for instance in everyday genre texts. It illustrates how linguistic hermeneutics can be done.
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Predators in low arctic tundra and their impact on community structure and dynamicsAunapuu, Maano January 2004 (has links)
The abundance of predators and their impact on ecosystem dynamics is a vividly discussed topic in current ecology. In my studies, incorporating field observations, field experiments and theoretical modeling, I explored the importance of predators and predation in a low arctic tundra ecosystem in northern Norway. This involved observing the abundance and spatial activity of predators (raptors and small mustelids); manipulating the abundance of predators (spiders and birds) in an arthropod community; and exploring the theoretical consequences of intraguild predation on the coexistence among predators. The results show that predation is important both in the arthropod assemblage and, depending on the productivity of the community, in the vertebrate assemblage. In arthropod communities predators are at least as abundant as their prey, whereas in the vertebrate part of ecosystem, predators are substantially less abundant than their prey. Still, in both cases predators had strong impact on their prey, influencing the abundance of prey and the species composition of prey assemblages. The impact of predation cascaded to the plant community both in the reticulate and complex arthropod food web and in the linear food chain-like vertebrate community. In the vertebrate-based community we could even observe the long time scale effect on plant community composition. Within the predator community, exploitation competition and intraguild predation were the structuring forces. As the arthropod communities consist of predators with different sizes, intraguild predation is an energetically important interaction for top predators. As a consequence, they reduce the abundance of intermediate predators and the impact of intermediate predators on other prey groups. Moreover, being supported by intermediate predators, top predators can have stronger impact themselves on other prey groups. In vertebrate communities, intraguild predation seems to be unimportant as energetic link, instead it manifests as an extreme version of interference competition. Therefore intraguild predation reduces the likelihood of coexistence, as it is due limited prey diversity and intense exploitative competition already precarious in the low arctic tundra. In conclusion, predators have strong impact on their prey, especially in the more productive parts of the low arctic tundra. This applies even to the food webs with complex and reticulate structure, and these effects carry through the community both in the short time scale of population growth and on the long time scale of population generations.
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Pigment and Thiamine Dynamics in Marine Phytoplankton and CopepodsWänstrand, Ingrid January 2004 (has links)
Based on a field study and several mesocosm experiments, I evaluated the use of pigments as chemotaxonomical biomarkers for phytoplankton community composition in the Baltic Sea and I examined effects of inorganic nutrients on the dynamics of carotenoids and thiamine (vitamin B1) at the phytoplankton–copepod level in marine pelagic food webs. My results show that HPLC pigment analysis combined with CHEMTAX data processing was an accurate alternative to microscopic analysis of Baltic Sea phytoplankton. Experimental supply of N, P and Si affected copepod growth and biochemical status via changes in biomass and composition of their phytoplankton diet. Net population growth rates were generally higher when phytoflagellates dominated (low Si:N ratio) and lower when diatoms dominated (high Si:N ratio). Copepod body concentrations of astaxanthin decreased with fertilization. Correlations with reduced under-water irradiance were consistent with the photo-protective function of this antioxidant. Thiamine concentrations in phytoplankton also decreased with fertilization. In copepods, low Si:N ratios resulted in higher thiamine concentrations than high Si:N ratios. Thiamine concentration and degree of phosphorylation were useful as indicators of thiamine shortage both in phytoplankton and copepods. The concentrations of thiamine and astaxanthin in the copepod communities were positively correlated. As copepods constitute a major link between pelagic primary producers and higher trophic levels, fertilization effects may be responsible for astaxanthin and thiamine deficiencies in salmon suffering from the M74 syndrome, which appeared concurrently with large-scale eutrophication in the Baltic Sea. As both thiamine and astaxanthin are deficient in M74-affected salmon, there is a need for physiological and molecular investigations of possible interactions between the two compounds in living cells.
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The Spider and the Sea : Effects of marine subsidies on the role of spiders in terrestrial food websMellbrand, Kajsa January 2009 (has links)
The purpose of this study was to identify if terrestrial arthropod predators on Baltic Sea shores vary in their use of marine versus terrestrial food items, and to construct a bottom-up food web for Baltic Sea shores. The inflow of marine nutrients in the area consists mainly of marine algal detritus and emerging aquatic insects (e.g. phantom midges, Chironomidae). Diets of coastal arthropods were examined using carbon and nitrogen stable isotope analysis, and a two source mixing model was used to examine proportions of marine carbon to diets. The results suggest that spiders are the terrestrial predators mainly utilizing nutrients and energy of marine origin on Baltic Sea shores, while insect predators such as beetles and hemipterans mainly utilize nutrients and energy derived from terrestrial sources, possibly due to differences in hunting behaviour. That spiders are the predators that benefit the most from the marine inflow suggest that eventual effects of marine subsidies for the coastal ecosystem as a whole are likely mediated by spiders.
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Deployment Control of Spinning Space Webs and MembranesGärdsback, Mattias January 2008 (has links)
Future solar sail and solar power satellite missions require deployment of large and lightweight flexible structures in space. One option is to spin the assembly and use the centrifugal force for deployment, stiffening and stabilization. Some of the main advantages with spin deployment are that the significant forces are in the plane of rotation, a relatively simple control can be used and the tension in the membrane or web can be adjusted by the spin rate to meet the mission requirements. However, a successful deployment requires careful development of new control schemes. The deployment rate can be controlled by a torque, applied either to a satellite in the center or by thrusters in the corners, or by deployment rate control, obtained by tether, spool braking or folding properties. Analytical models with only three degrees of freedom were here used to model the deployment of webs and membranes for various folding patterns and control schemes, with focus on space webs folded in star-like arms coiled around a center hub. The model was used to investigate control requirements and folding patterns and to obtain optimal control laws for centrifugal deployment. New control laws were derived from the optimal control results and previously presented control strategies. Analytical and finite element simulations indicate that the here developed control laws yield less oscillations, and most likely more robustness, than existing controls. Rotation-free (RF) shell elements can be used to model inflation or centrifugal deployment of flexible memebrane structures by the finite element method. RF elements approximate the rotational degrees of freedom from the out-of-plane displacements of a patch of elements, and thus avoid common singularity problems for very thin shells. The performance of RF shell elements on unstructured grids is investigated in the last article of this thesis, and it is shown that a combination of existing RF elements performs well even for unstructured grids. / QC 20100729
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Förändring av pappersegenskaper vid lagring under dragspänningLarsson, Johan, Sonemalm, Annica January 2006 (has links)
Sammanfattning I en pappersrulle är de yttre lagren utsatta för dragspänning. Om det finns variationer i rullens diameter i form av valkar finns det risk för att papperet förlängs irreversibelt i dessa positioner och orsaka slappa stråk. Den deformation som uppstår vid långvarig belastning av papper kallas krypning. Uppgiften i detta arbete var, att på lab., simulera valkar genom att utsätta pappersremsor för konstant dragspänning av olika storlekar. En av frågeställningarna var om egenskapsförändringar kan påvisas när papper utsätts för konstant inspänningskraft under en längre tid. De parametrar som undersökts var töjning, kryphastighet och relaxation, även mätningar på papperets mekaniska egenskaper dragstyrka, brottöjning och dragstyvhet har utförts i detta arbete. De papperskvalitéer som undersöktes var 71g/m2 MG-papper, 80g/m2 optisk liner och 135g/m2 liner. Inspänningskraften som papperet utsattes för motsvarade 10 %, 30 % och 50 % av dragstyrkan hos varje kvalité. Provremsor belastades under ett, fyra och sju dygn, för att sedan relaxeras. Resultaten visar att dragstyrkan och dragstyvheten inte påverkas av att papperet varit utsatt för en inspänningskraft. Däremot blev brottöjningen mindre ju större den irreversibla förlängningen hos papperet var. Samtliga papperskvalitéer relaxerar tillbaka till ursprungslängd efter fyra dygn när belastningen var 10 %. Om belastningen däremot var 30 % och 50 % uppstod en irreversibel förlängning redan efter ett dygn. Vid belastning under sju dygn uppstod permanent förlängning hos samtliga kvalitéer och belastningar utom MG-papper 10 % som relaxerade till ursprungslängd. MG-papper är därmed den papperskvalité som står emot krypning bäst och är på så sätt minst känslig för valkar i pappersrullen. En högre belastning ger en högre kryphastighet och större irreversibel förlängning. För att undvika uppkomsten av slappa stråk bör därför banspänningen som används vid upprullningen av papperet inte vara större än 10 % av dragstyrkan hos papperskvalitén. Hur länge papperet är belastat påverkar också den slutliga irreversibla förlängningen. Det innebär att lagring ökar risken för att slappa stråk kommer att uppstå i efterbearbetningen. / Abstract In a paper roll the outer layers are under tensile stress. If there are variations in the roll diameter there is a risk that the thicker parts of the roll will make the paper elongate more in these regions, because they will be under a higher tensile stress. This may cause baggy webs. The deformation that occurs during a long time under tensile stress is called creep. Experiments have been performed with strips of paper that have been exposed to a constant load and constant climate (50 % RH, 23°C). The properties that have been examined are creep strain, creep rate and relaxation after creep. Studies of tensile strength, tensile stiffness and strain at break have also been made. The paper qualities that have been examined were 71g/m2 MG-paper, 80g/m2 liner and 135g/m2 liner. The paper qualities in this study are exposed to loads that correspond to 10 %, 30 % and 50 % of their tensile strength. The paper strips were under load during 24h, four and seven days. The results in these studies show that tensile strength and tensile stiffness remains the same after the paper has been exposed to a constant load. The strain at break, on the other hand, decreases with increasing irreversible elongation of the paper strips. All paper qualities recover to the initial length after four days under a load of 10 % of the tensile strength. If the load corresponds to 30 % or 50 % of the tensile strength a permanent elongation arose as early as after 24h. After seven days, only the MG-paper recovered to the initial length if the load corresponded to 10 % of the tensile strength. This means that MG-paper is more resistant to creep then the liner qualities. Consequently, MG-paper is the paper quality that is least sensitive to ridges. A higher load gives a higher creep rate and larger irreversible elongation of the paper. To avoid baggy webs to arise, the load should not exceed 10 % of the paper’s tensile strength when winding the paper roll. The time under which the paper is under load also influence the final irreversible elongation. Therefore, to avoid baggy webs the paper roll shouldn’t be stored for too long.
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