This thesis examines Leadership Development in both a corporate setting and an expedition-based setting. The assumptions that are the foundations of current Leadership Development originate, and are informed by, aspects of the natural sciences. These methods are critiqued in terms of usability and applicability in the context of human relating. An alternative approach is investigated based on nonlinear causality and the complex responsive process of relating using the work of Stacey (2003, 2007, 2010), Stacey and Griffin (2005), Stacey et al. (2000). What is explored is the Leader as expert and the ability through communication, decision making, and planning to create certainty. What is problematized is the fantasy that this creates in ongoing day-to-day interactions. The work explores interactions between a leadership consultant/coach and clients in varied domains: the role of the practitioner in the delivery and creation of theory, models, best practices and standard operating procedures; and the reflections of both the practitioner and clients that what is emerging cannot be foreseen. This leads to a further exploration cycle of the human experience in organizations and how reification, the uncanny, and the struggle for recognition might offer other ways of making sense of the experience. The work examines the role of the consultant/teacher and the client/student and the emergence of knowledge. It further investigates the relationship of time and causality and how this is connected to theoretical knowledge and knowledge in action. This leads to a further connection of thinking, reflecting and reflexivity and what this means as practice for leadership development. Using the context of leadership coaching for management teams and connecting the reflexive aspect of knowledge, what is argued is that sensemaking as developed by Weick (1995, 2001, 2009), Weick and Sutcliffe (2007) is not a sufficient practice to explain and create best practices, standard operating procedures, models, and theories. What is also necessary, and is identified as sensemaking and connected to Elias (1987) work, is our own involvement and detachment as we abstract to understand what is happening in the moment between human agents. It is argued that paying attention to these aspects of ongoing human relating offer the possibility of thicker and a more contextualized understanding of the emergent unpredictable outcomes that leaders deal with every day.

Målet med denna avhandling var att undersöka partnerrelaterat våld mot kvinnor i Sverige från olika perspektiv och med ett särskilt fokus på graviditetsperioden. Syftet var: 1) att ta reda på barnmorskors erfarenheter, attityder och rutiner angående partnerrelaterat våld mot gravida kvinnor inom mödravården; 2) att utforska hur personer som arbetar inom olika program för våldsbenägna män (inom och utom kriminalvården) talar om manligt och kvinnligt och om partnerrelaterat våld, speciellt i förhållande till graviditet; och 3) att belysa kvinnors erfarenheter av att bli och vara gravid samtidigt som de var utsatta för våld i relationen, samt deras möten med barnmorskorna på mödravårdscentralen. Data för tre studier samlades in under åren 1998-2003 med kvantitativa och kvalitativa metoder. En enkät skickades till alla yrkesverksamma mödravårdsbarnmorskor i Västerbotten och analyserades statistiskt och med innehållsanalys. Forskningsintervjuerna utfördes och analyserades enligt ’grundad teori’ (för att skapa teoretiska förklaringsmodeller), ’diskursanalys’ (för att visa hur ett gemensamt språkbruk konstruerar ’sanning’) och ’narrativ metod’ (för att tolka och återberätta innebörden i personliga berättelser). Resultaten från de studier som lade grunden till denna avhandling visar på problemets komplexitet, både från de professionellas och från kvinnornas perspektiv. Barnmorskorna (artikel I) var yrkeskunniga men också kunniga om partnerrelaterat våld mot kvinnor, men utan PM eller andra riktlinjer, så blev de osäkra och ställde sällan direkta frågor eftersom ämnet ansågs vara känsligt och tabubelagt. De professionella (artikel II-III) som arbetade med våldsbenägna män i olika program (inom eller utanför kriminalvården) krävde att män skulle ta ansvar för sitt våld. De ansåg att våldsamma män var tämligen vanliga män men avvikande i särskilda avseenden såsom i samspel, kommunikation, nära relationer och i deras kvinnosyn. De professionella beskrev stereotyper om könsskillnader och hur aggressivitet kan starta på olika sätt hos olika typer av män och ansåg också att graviditet kan utlösa konflikter och våld. Likväl så ingick i programmen vanligtvis inte känsliga frågor, om t.ex. graviditet och samlevnad, och trots en god vilja och avsikt att skapa en ’ny maskulinitet’, så tycktes deras strategier och tankegångar rent av kunna motverka deras egna goda syften. De nio intervjuade kvinnorna (artikel IV) som hade varit utsatta för våld beskrev hur deras liv hade varit komplicerade och blivit till en mardröm då deras hjärtevän hade förvandlats till en förövare. Två kvinnor bröt upp från sina relationer under graviditeten på grund av livshotande våld medan de andra för det mesta höll uppe en fasad och dolde det pågående våldet inför barnmorskan och andra alltmedan de gick balansgång mellan hopp och förtvivlan eller väntade på rätt tidpunkt att ge sig av. Förutom kvinnornas berättelser om partnerrelaterat våld under graviditet (artikel IV) så presenterades två professionella grupper och deras gemensamma svårigheter gällande tabun och känsliga frågor utanför det man vanligtvis sysslade med i sin profession (artikel I-III). Barnmorskorna var yrkeskunniga men hade ingen handlingsplan för att kunna bemöta och identifiera komplexiteten i våldsutsatta gravida kvinnors situation som ofta består i att dölja och balansera. De professionella i program för män konfronterade tydligt mäns våld och hade ambitionen att utmana deras maskulinitet, men då de i samtalen exempelvis förbisåg att ta upp vissa känsliga frågor kan utfallet ifrågasättas. / The aim of this thesis was to examine - from different perspectives - intimate partner violence (IPV) against women, focusing on the period of pregnancy, with the object of increasing the available knowledge about this complex subject area, in a Swedish context. The specific aims were: i) to assess the experience, knowledge, attitudes and routines of midwives working in antenatal care regarding IPV against pregnant women; ii) to explore discourses with special reference to IPV, gender and the period of pregnancy of professionals running various intervention programs for men inclined to violence (outside or within the treatment of offenders); and iii) to illuminate experiences in women subjected to IPV by analyzing their stories about becoming and being pregnant as well as meeting antenatal care providers. Three studies were carried out using a combination of quantitative and qualitative methods. Questionnaires sent to all midwives working at antenatal care clinics in the county of Västerbotten were processed by statistical methods and content analysis. The qualitative research interviews followed the ‘grounded theory’, ‘discourse analysis’ or ‘narrative analysis’ approach. The results indicate the complexity of the problem of IPV from the viewpoints of both professional actors and the women. The midwives, although knowledgeable about IPV and certainly experts on pregnancy, felt uncertain regarding IPV and rarely asked direct questions of pregnant women, because the midwives perceived the subject to be difficult and taboo and they lacked guidelines to help them tackle the issue. The professionals in men’s programs intended men to take full responsibility for their own violent behavior. They viewed violent men as rather ordinary but yet deviant in certain respects such as in interplay, communication, relationships and in their views of women. The professionals described gender stereotypes and attributed and generalized certain masculine characteristics to aggressiveness. They also believed that pregnancy could be a potential trigger for conflicts and violence. Nevertheless, pregnancy and sensitive relational topics did not constitute significant parts of the intervention programs. Despite good intentions to change concepts of masculinity, the professionals’ discourses appeared to be rather lacking in reflection and even counter-productive. The women who had been subjected to violence described their complex lives as being terrible nightmares where their lovers turned into perpetrators. Two of the nine interviewed women left their relationships during pregnancy because of life-threatening violence whereas the others mostly kept up a front, hiding the IPV from the antenatal care staff and others while they trod a fine line between hope and despair or waited for the right moment to leave. In addition to women’s stories about IPV during pregnancy, two professional groups presented shared dilemmas regarding taboos and sensitive matters outside ordinary practice. Midwives were proficient but had no action plan to recognize and meet the complexity of the abused pregnant women’s situation involving concealment, balancing and decision-making. Professionals in programs for men were explicitly confronting men’s violence and wanted also to challenge masculinity in their clients. However, their discourse lacked depth by, for instance, their overlooking of sensitive relational topics in dialogues with men.

No description available.

Les modèles de séries chronologiques avec variances conditionnellement hétéroscédastiques sont devenus quasi incontournables afin de modéliser les séries chronologiques dans le contexte des données financières. Dans beaucoup d'applications, vérifier l'existence d'une relation entre deux séries chronologiques représente un enjeu important. Dans ce mémoire, nous généralisons dans plusieurs directions et dans un cadre multivarié, la procédure dévéloppée par Cheung et Ng (1996) conçue pour examiner la causalité en variance dans le cas de deux séries univariées. Reposant sur le travail de El Himdi et Roy (1997) et Duchesne (2004), nous proposons un test basé sur les matrices de corrélation croisée des résidus standardisés carrés et des produits croisés de ces résidus. Sous l'hypothèse nulle de l'absence de causalité en variance, nous établissons que les statistiques de test convergent en distribution vers des variables aléatoires khi-carrées. Dans une deuxième approche, nous définissons comme dans Ling et Li (1997) une transformation des résidus pour chaque série résiduelle vectorielle. Les statistiques de test sont construites à partir des corrélations croisées de ces résidus transformés. Dans les deux approches, des statistiques de test pour les délais individuels sont proposées ainsi que des tests de type portemanteau. Cette méthodologie est également utilisée pour déterminer la direction de la causalité en variance. Les résultats de simulation montrent que les tests proposés offrent des propriétés empiriques satisfaisantes. Une application avec des données réelles est également présentée afin d'illustrer les méthodes / Time series models with conditionnaly heteroskedastic variances have become almost inevitable to model financial time series. In many applications, to confirm the existence of a relationship between two time series is very important. In this Master thesis, we generalize in several directions and in a multivariate framework, the method developed by Cheung and Ng (1996) designed to examine causality in variance in the case of two univariate series. Based on the work of El Himdi and Roy (1997) and Duchesne (2004), we propose a test based on residual cross-correlation matrices of squared residuals and cross-products of these residuals. Under the null hypothesis of no causality in variance, we establish that the test statistics converge in distribution to chi-square random variables. In a second approach, we define as in Ling and Li (1997) a transformation of the residuals for each residual time series. The test statistics are built from the cross-correlations of these transformed residuals. In both approaches, test statistics at individual lags are presented and also portmanteau-type test statistics. That methodology is also used to determine the direction of causality in variance. The simulation results show that the proposed tests provide satisfactory empirical properties. An application with real data is also presented to illustrate the methods

Baigiamajame magistro darbe yra nagrinėjamas Baltijos šalių – Lietuvos, Latvijos ir Estijos BVP, jo kitimo tendencijos bei pagrindiniai makroekonomikos rodikliai – galutinio vartojimo išlaidos, prekių ir paslaugų importas bei eksportas, investicijos, užimtųjų darbo rinkoje skaičius bei BVP defliatorius. Išnagrinėti šių rodiklių apibrėžimai bei ekonominė prasmė, taip pat apžvelgta sukaupta mokslininkų patirtis modeliuojant juos. Siekiant išsiaiškinti ryšius tarp šių rodiklių atlikta koreliacijų bei Grangerio priežastingumo analizė. Modeliuojant, visų pirma, rasti ilgalaikiai sąryšiai tarp kintamųjų, o po to kiekvienai šaliai specifikuotas paklaidų korekcijos modelis bei įvertintas šio modelio tikslumas. Išnagrinėjus praktinius ir teorinius aspektus, pateikiamos baigiamojo darbo išvados ir pasiūlymai. Darbą sudaro 5 dalys: įvadas, analitinė - metodinė dalis, tiriamoji dalis, išvados ir pasiūlymai, literatūros sąrašas. Darbo apimtis – 112 p. teksto be priedų, 60 iliustr., 35 lent., 28 bibliografiniai šaltiniai. Atskirai pridedami darbo priedai. / The gross domestic product of the Baltic States – Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, has been examined in the master thesis. Trends of the GDP and the main macroeconomic indicators – gross final consumption expenditure, imports and exports of goods and services, investment, labor force and GDP deflator have been analyzed. The definitions of these indicators and an economic sense, as well as researchers' experience in modeling, have been examined. In order to establish the relationship between these variables, analysis of the correlation and Granger causality test has been performed. In particular, modeling started with the finding of the long – term relationship between selected indicators. After that the error correction model has been specified and the accuracy of this model has been estimated. After the examination of the practical and theoretical aspects, the conclusions and recommendations have been presented. Structure: introduction, analytical – methodical part, research part, conclusions and suggestions, references. Thesis consists of: 112 p. text without appendixes, 60 pictures, 35 tables, 28 bibliographical entries. Appendixes included.

Today, as we live longer, dementia diseases are becoming more prevalent around the world. Thus, further knowledge of how to maintain levels of cognitive functioning in old age and how to identify factors that postpone the onset of dementia are of acute interest. Lifestyle patterns and social life are important aspects to consider in this regard. This thesis includes three studies. Study I investigated the association between participation in various leisure activities in old age (≥65 years) and risk of incident all-cause dementia. Analyses of the total follow-up time period (15 years) showed that higher levels of “Social” and “Total” leisure activity were associated with decreased risk of dementia. In Study II, the aim was to investigate the association between various aspects of social relationships in old age (≥65 years) and risk of incidents of all-cause dementia and Alzheimer's disease. Results showed that over the total follow-up period (16 years) higher values on the relationship index were associated with reduced risk of both dementia and Alzheimer's disease. Visiting/visits of friends and acquaintances more than once a week was related to decreased risk for all-cause dementia, but not for Alzheimer's disease. However, in neither Study I nor II did any of these factors alter the risk of all-cause dementia or Alzheimer's disease when near-onset dementias were removed from the analyses (Study I, up to five years; Study II, up to three years). In Study III the aim was to investigate the association between social network size and cognitive ability in a middle-aged (40–60 years) sample. The idea was that if social network size can moderate negative age-related influence on memory functions, it might also put an individual on a cognitive trajectory that is beneficial in old age. Results from longitudinal analyses showed that baseline network size was positively related to five-year changes in semantic memory and with changes in both semantic and episodic memory at the ten-year follow-up. Social network size was unrelated to changes in visuospatial performance. Taken together, enrichment factors measured in old age (≥ 65 years) did not alter the risk of all-cause dementia or Alzheimer's disease when near-onset dementias were removed from the analyses. These results might reflect protective short-term effects or reverse causality, meaning that in the prodromal phase of dementia individuals tend to withdraw from activity. Social network size in middle age (40-60 years), however, appears to have beneficial long-term effects on cognitive functioning. The results highlight the importance of long follow-up periods and the need to adjust for the influences of reverse causality when investigating the impact of a socially and mentally active life on cognitive functioning.

This thesis consists of four research papers. The main focus is on building the multivariate Conditional Correlation (CC-) GARCH models. In particular, emphasis lies on considering an extension of CC-GARCH models that allow for interactions or causality in conditional variances. In the first three chapters, misspecification testing and parameter restrictions in these models are discussed. In the final chapter, a computer package for building major variants of the CC-GARCH models is presented. The first chapter contains a brief introduction to the CC-GARCH models as well as a summary of each research paper. The second chapter proposes a misspecification test for modelling of the conditional variance part of the Extended Constant CC-GARCH model. The test is designed for testing the hypothesis of no interactions in the conditional variances. If the null hypothesis is true, then the conditional variances may be described by the standard CCC-GARCH model. The test is constructed on the Lagrange Multiplier (LM) principle that only requires the estimation of the null model. Although the test is derived under the assumption of the constant conditional correlation, the simulation experiments suggest that the test is also applicable to building CC-GARCH models with changing conditional correlations. There is no asymptotic theory available for these models, which is why simulation of the test statistic in this situation has been necessary. The third chapter provides yet another misspecification test for modelling of the conditional variance component of the CC-GARCH models, whose parameters are often estimated in two steps. The estimator obtained through these two steps is a two-stage quasi-maximum likelihood estimator (2SQMLE). Taking advantage of the asymptotic results for 2SQMLE, the test considered in this chapter is formulated using the LM principle, which requires only the estimation of univariate GARCH models. It is also shown that the test statistic may be computed by using an auxiliary regression. A robust version of the new test is available through another auxiliary regression. All of this amounts to a substantial simplification in computations compared with the test proposed in the second chapter. The simulation experiments show that, under both under both Gaussian and leptokurtic innovations, as well as under changing conditional correlations, the new test has reasonable size and power properties. When modelling the conditional variance, it is necessary to keep the sequence of conditional covariance matrices positive definite almost surely for any time horizon. In the fourth chapter it is demonstrated that under certain conditions some of the parameters of the model can take negative values while the conditional covariance matrix remains positive definite almost surely. It is also shown that even in the simplest first-order vector GARCH representation, the relevant parameter space can contain negative values for some parameters, which is not possible in the univariate model. This finding makes it possible to incorporate negative volatility spillovers into the CC-GARCH framework. Many new GARCH models and misspecification testing procedures have been recently proposed in the literature. When it comes to applying these models or tests, however, there do not seem to exist many options for the users to choose from other than creating their own computer programmes. This is especially the case when one wants to apply a multivariate GARCH model. The last chapter of the thesis offers a remedy to this situation by providing a workable environment for building CC-GARCH models. The package is open source, freely available on the Internet, and designed for use in the open source statistical environment R. With this package can estimate major variants of CC-GARCH models as well as simulate data from the CC-GARCH data generating processes with multivariate normal or Student's t innovations. In addition, the package is equipped with the necessary functions for conducting diagnostic tests such as those discussed in the third chapter of this thesis. / <p>Diss. Stockholm : Handelshögskolan, 2010. Sammanfattning jämte 4 uppsatser.</p>

Die drei Essays dieser Dissertation verbinden Themen der wirtschaftlichen Entwicklung und des Klimawandels. Alle Essays erörtern die allgemeine Frage wie steigende Einkommen und Austauschbeziehungen in Umweltfragen verbunden werden können und konzentrieren sich dabei auf CO2 Emissionen als Hauptverursacher von Treibhausgasen. Die Forschungsarbeit beleuchtet die wesentlichen Treiber und Verteilungswege von CO2 Emissionen und zeigt wie wirtschaftliches Wachstum, Energieverbrauch und Emissionen interagieren. Im ersten Essay wird am Beispiel Indonesiens der ökologische Fußabdruck von Haushalten durch ihre Konsumentscheidung aufgezeigt. Es werden Muster, Determinanten und die Aufschlüsselung der steigenden Emissionen der Haushalte analysiert. Die Arbeit konnte zeigen, dass die Sektoren mit Leichtöl und im Transportwesen die intensivsten Emittenten in Indonesien sind und ein signifikantes Ungleichgewicht der Karbon-Emissionen zwischen Haushalten besteht. Sie konnte zudem darlegen, dass ein steigendes Einkommen die wichtigste Determinante der Haushaltsemissionen sind. Die Aufschlüsselung des Emissionswachstums legt nahe, dass die steigenden Emissionen zwischen 2005 und 2009 hauptsächlich auf den steigenden Wohlstand der Haushalte zurückzuführen sind.  Eine gerechtere Haushaltsverteilung besitzt -wie jedes Emissionsreduzierungskonzept- einen größeren Effekt zur Abschwächung des Klimawandels in einer Gesellschaft mit weniger Ungleichheit als in einer Gesellschaft mit verstärkter Ungleichheit.  Im zweiten Essay wurde die Ungleichheit von Haushalts-Emissionen und die Aufschlüsselung der Emissionsungleichheiten in ihre Ursachen untersucht.. Die Studie zeigt einerseits eine steigende Ungleichheit unter den untersuchten Haushalten als auch dass Energie-Transport hauptsächlich für höhere Emissionsungleichheit verantwortlich ist. Der dritte Essay untersucht kausale Zusammenhänge zwischen Emissionen, Energieverbrauch und wirtschaftliche Entwicklung gemeinsam mit Urbanisierung und Investitionen im Falle von Indonesien unter Verwendung von Zeitreihenanalyse. Diese Studie zeigt eine Granger-Kausalität von Output und Energieverbrauch hin zu Emissionen, aber nicht in die entgegengesetzte Richtung von Emissionen zu Output. Dies weist darauf hin die Möglichkeit Emissionen zu reduzieren ohne Wachstum zu hemmen. Damit könnte Energieverbrauch die hauptsächlich verändernde Variable zwischen Output und Emissionen sein. Urbanisierung und Kapitalformation können CO2 neutral sein, wenn das betreffende Land nachhaltige städtische Entwicklung, grüne Investitionen und Energieeffizienz zur Entschärfung des Klimawandels fördert. Jeder dieser Essays trägt zu der Literatur dazu bei, wie ökonomische Aktivitäten (wie steigender Konsum) steigende Emissionen - eine der wichtigsten Externalitäten menschlicher Entwicklung - bedingen. Andersherum könnte Umweltzerstörung (und/oder entschärfende Maßnahmen) weitere Entwicklung menschlichen Wohlbefindens erschweren. Passende Politikmaßnahmen, der Konsum in Richtung von weniger emissionsintensiven Ausgaben stimulieren, könnten implementiert werden. Aber insbesondere in Entwicklungsländern, die mit Energieeffizienz (CO2 intensive Energiesysteme), ungenügend grünen Infrastrukturen, Städteplanung, öffentlichem Nahverkehr und hohen (und ungünstig gezielte) Treibstoffsubventionen zu kämpfen haben, könnte dies schwierig werden. Diese Themen könnten dann nicht nur für Indonesien als entwickelnde Ökonomie sondern auch bei globalen Debatten dazu beitragen, wie Entwicklungspfade weniger kohlenstoffintensiv gestaltet werden können und damit substantielle Bedeutung erlangen.

In a large number of applications arising in various fields of study, time series are approximated using linear MMSE estimates. Such approximations include finite order moving average and autoregressive approximations as well as the causal Wiener filter. In this dissertation, we study two topics related to the estimation of wide sense stationary (WSS) time series using linear MMSE estimates. In the first part of this dissertation, we study the asymptotic behaviour of autoregressive (AR) and moving average (MA) approximations. Our objective is to investigate how faithfully such approximations replicate the original sequence, as the model order as well as the number of samples approach infinity. We consider two aspects: convergence of spectral density of MA and AR approximations when the covariances are known and when they are estimated. Under certain mild conditions on the spectral density and the covariance sequence, it is shown that the spectral densities of both approximations converge in L2 as the order of approximation increases. It is also shown that the spectral density of AR approximations converges at the origin under the same conditions. Under additional regularity assumptions, we show that similar results hold for approximations from empirical covariance estimates. In the second part of this dissertation, we address the problem of detecting interdependence relations within a group of time series. Ideally, in order to infer the complete interdependence structure of a complex system, dynamic behaviour of all the processes involved should be considered simultaneously. However, for large systems, use of such a method may be infeasible and computationally intensive, and pairwise estimation techniques may be used to obtain sub-optimal results. Here, we investigate the problem of determining Granger-causality in an interdependent group of jointly WSS time series by using pairwise causal Wiener filters. Analytical results are presented, along with simulations that compare the performance of a method based on finite impulse response Wiener filters to another using directed information, a tool widely used in literature. The problem is studied in the context of cyclostationary processes as well. Finally, a new technique is proposed that allows the determination of causal connections under certain sparsity conditions.

Purpose: The purpose of this thesis is to study the causal relationship between bank sector development and economic growth in four Nordic countries (Sweden, Finland, Denmark and Norway). Method: Our thesis is based on a quantitative method. The study consists of a compilation and analysis of key financial indicators that represent economic growth and bank sector development. A Granger causality test has been conducted on the time series in order to measure the causal link between economic growth and bank sector development. Theoretical framework: The study is based on the theory of endogenous growth and the causal relationship between bank sector development and economic growth also known as the demand following and supply leading hypothesis.  Results: The results of the four countries are ambiguous. Except for Denmark, that follows the supply leading hypothesis, the remaining countries do not show a unanimous result.