Made available in DSpace on 2016-12-23T14:37:30Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Lucas Contarato Pilon.pdf: 1648966 bytes, checksum: cac40ef638ed16eaccc0afa53f321565 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013-02-28 / Diante da necessidade de obter informações sobre o cultivo de cafeeiros arborizados, o objetivo do trabalho é avaliar a relação dos atributos químicos, físicos e os componentes da matéria orgânica do solo sob cultivo de café consorciado com diferentes espécies arbóreas, comparativamente ao café cultivado a pleno sol, tendo como referência uma área sob floresta. O trabalho foi conduzido em sistemas de produção de café, numa propriedade familiar, município de Nova Venécia - ES. O solo da área é um ARGISSOLO AMARELO Distrocoeso típico, cultivado com café conilon consorciado com árvores, nos seguintes sistemas de uso e manejo: 1) café sem consórcio (pleno sol), 2) café consorciado com nim (Azadirachta indica), 3) café consorciado com cedro australiano (Cedrela fissilis) e 4) café consorciado com teca (Tectona grandis). Foi utilizado um solo de área florestal, como referência. A amostragem do solo foi realizada nas seguintes profundidades: 0,0 0,05; 0,05 0,10; 0,10 0,20; e 0,20 0,40 m, avaliando-se atributos químicos (pH, P, K, Ca, Mg, Al, H+Al, N, C total, C ext em água, C biomassa microbiana e emissão de CO2) e físicos do solo (granulometria, densidade do solo e de partículas, porosidade total, macro e microporosidade, estabilidade de agregados, resistência do solo à penetração e umidade do solo). A avaliação do carbono solúvel (C ext) e do carbono da biomassa microbiana do solo (CBMS) foi realizada em duas épocas (março e setembro/2012) nas profundidades de 0,0 0,05 e 0,05 0,10 m; já a emissão de CO2 foi medida na mesma época que, na presença e ausência de serapilheira. Os resultados experimentais mostram que os sistemas de uso e manejo apresentam comportamento diferenciado para grande parte dos atributos estudados. O solo florestal apresenta maiores teores e estoques de carbono orgânico total e nitrogênio total, 19,8 e 1,99 Mg ha-1 respectivamente, além de maior teor de carbono na biomassa microbiana (518,8 μg g-1 solo em março e 364,8 μg g-1 solo em setembro). Os atributos dos solos sob cafeeiros consorciados, de maneira geral, não diferem do solo sob cafeeiro a pleno sol, exceção feita para os atributos Mg, N e o C ext, C-BMS, quociente microbiano (qMic) na duas épocas de coleta, os quais são superiores nos consórcios agroflorestais, e o quociente metabólico (qCO2) inferior, denotando maior estabilidade dos cafeeiros arborizados. O café a pleno sol mostra-se um agroecossitema mais perturbado com maior qCO2 (1,81 μg CO2 C-BMS-1 h-1 em março e 2,44 μg CO2 C-BMS-1 h-1 em setembro). A proteção do solo ocasionada pelo sombreamento das árvores e a deposição de serapilheira influencia principalmente os atributos biológicos estudados, favorecendo um maior equilíbrio nos cafeeiros arborizados. Com relação aos atributos físicos, o consórcio proporciona menor densidade do solo, maior porosidade total e macroporosidade do solo, diferindo do café a pleno sol. Os cafeeiros consorciados se diferem somente na agregação do solo. A resistência do solo à penetração é influenciada pela umidade do solo, com destaque para o café a pleno sol que apresenta valores mais baixos desse atributo, em função da irrigação, que eleva a umidade do solo. O estudo numa condição de Argissolo coeso, mostra que 5 anos de implantação de sistemas arborizados são suficiente para apresentar pequenas mudanças nos atributos estudados, no entanto para atributos de alta sensibilidade, como os biológicos, são suficientes para apresentar mudanças mais consistentes dos sistemas de uso e manejo / Faced with the need for information on the coffee agroforestry systems, the objective is to evaluate the relationship of the chemical, physical and components of soil organic matter under coffee intercropping with different tree species, compared to the full-sun coffee with an area under forest like reference. The research was conducted in coffee production systems, a family farm, in Nova Venécia city - ES. The soil is an YELLOW ULTISOL Distrocohesive typical, with shadow coffee plantation, the following different land use systems and management: 1) coffee full (full-sun), 2) coffee intercropped with neem (Azadirachta indica), 3) coffee intercropped with Australian cedar (Cedrela fissilis) and 4) coffee intercropped with Teca (Tectona grandis). It was used a soil of forest area, as a reference. Soil sampling was conducted in the following depths: 0.0-0.05, 0.05-0.10; 0.10-0.20, and 0.20-0.40 m, evaluating chemical soil attributes ( pH, P, K, Ca, Mg, Al, H + Al, total nitrogen (TN), total organic carbon (TOC), water-soluble carbon (WSC), soil microbial biomass carbon (SMBC) and soil CO2 emission and physical soil attributes (particle size, bulk density, total porosity, macroporosity, microporosity and soil resistance penetration), was collected and characterization of accumulated litter. The evaluation of soluble carbon (soluble C) and soil microbial biomass carbon (SMBC) was held twice a year (March and september/2012) at depths from 0.0-0.05 and 0.05-0, 10 m, the soil CO2 emission was measured at the same times, in the presence and absence of litter. The experimental results show that the use and management systems were characterized for most attributes researched. The forest soil has higher levels of stocks and TOC and TN, 19.8 and 1.99 Mg ha-1 respectively, and the higher SMBC (518.8 mg g-1 soil in March and 364, 8 mg g-1 soil in September). The soil under shadow coffee, in general, do not differ from full-sun coffee, except for the attributes Mg, N and soluble C, SMBC, microbial quotient (QMIC) at both harvests, which are higher in agroforestry systems, and attributes TOC/ soluble C and metabolic quotient (qCO2) lower values, indicating greater stability of shadow coffee systems. The full-sun coffee shows more disturbed agroecosystem with high qCO2 (1.81 μg CO2 CBMS-1 h-1in March and 2.44 μg CO2 CBMS-1 h-1 in September). The protection of soil caused by shading from trees and litterfall influences the biological attributes primarily, favoring a greater balance in shadow coffee. Relative to physical attributes, the intercropped provides a lower bulk density, higher total porosity and macroporosity, differing full-sun coffee. The shadow coffee up differs only in soil aggregation. The soil resistance penetration is influenced by soil moisture, especially for full-sun coffee which shows lower values of this attribute, depending on irrigation management, which increase soil moisture. The study provides a ULTISOL cohesive, shows that 5 years of systems implementation, are enough to present small changes in the attributes studied, however high sensitivity to attributes such as biological changes are sufficient to represent most consistent use and management systems

Kyoto University (京都大学) / 0048 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(工学) / 甲第16790号 / 工博第3511号 / 新制||工||1531(附属図書館) / 29465 / 京都大学大学院工学研究科都市環境工学専攻 / (主査)教授 松岡 譲, 教授 米田 稔, 准教授 倉田 学児 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当

To reduce fossil fuel consumption and carbon emission in the building sector, renewable and low carbon energy technologies are integrated in building energy systems to supply all or part of the building energy demand. In this research, an optimal supervisory controller is designed to optimize the operational cost and the CO2 emission of the integrated energy systems. For this purpose, the building energy system is defined and its boundary, components (subsystems), inputs and outputs are identified. Then a mathematical model of the components is obtained. For mathematical modelling of the energy system, a unified modelling method is used. With this method, many different building energy systems can be modelled uniformly. Two approaches are used; multi-period optimization and hybrid model predictive control. In both approaches the optimization problem is deterministic, so that at each time step the energy consumption of the building, and the available renewable energy are perfectly predicted for the prediction horizon. The controller is simulated in three different applications. In the first application the controller is used for a system consisting of a micro-combined heat and power system with an auxiliary boiler and a hot water storage tank. In this application the controller reduces the operational cost and CO2 emission by 7.31 percent and 5.19 percent respectively, with respect to the heat led operation. In the second application the controller is used to control a farm electrification system consisting of PV panels, a diesel generator and a battery bank. In this application the operational cost with respect to the common load following strategy is reduced by 3.8 percent. In the third application the controller is used to control a hybrid off-grid power system consisting of PV panels, a battery bank, an electrolyzer, a hydrogen storage tank and a fuel cell. In this application the controller maximizes the total stored energies in the battery bank and the hydrogen storage tank.

Dans le contexte du réchauffement climatique global, les institutions académiques et internationales comme GIEC et de nombreux pays ont proposé des objectifs de réduction des émissions de CO2. L'objectif de cette thèse est d'évaluer ces objectifs gouvernementaux en les comparants avec les objectifs globaux à l'aide de différentes méthodes d'allocations lesquelles correspondent à différents principes d'équité en matière d'émissions carbones.Afin d'évaluer les feuilles de route technologique permettant d'obtenir les réductions d'émission de CO2 nécessaires, un modèle qualifié de flexible est proposé à destination des décideurs. Notre modèle permet d'éviter les opérations informatiques complexes et peut être personnalisé en fonction de différents besoins. Les simulations sont réalisées jusqu'à l'horizon 2050 lequel est souvent considéré comme un pivot dans les habitudes de consommation d'énergies notamment. Dans cette thèse, des feuilles de route technologique pour les différents objectifs gouvernementaux en matières d'émissions de CO2 sont étudiées pour trois pays : la Chine, la France et les États-Unis. Le modèle couvre les principaux secteurs responsables des émissions de CO2 et étudie l'influence de différentes technologies sur le mix énergétique. Diverses méthodes et approches sont utilisées dans notre modélisation. L'identité IPAT est utilisée pour la décomposition des émissions dans les secteurs de l'énergie. Le modèle STIRPAT permet quant à lui d'évaluer l'évolution des émissions de CO2 dans les scénarios Business-as-Usual. Le modèle SVR est utilisé dans le cadre des projections de production d'électricité. Enfin, l'indice de Theil est employé pour mesurer les inégalités d'émissions de CO2 par tête. A la différence des modèles plus classiques en économie de l'énergie, notre modèle propose des feuilles de route technologiques selon différents critères, comme par exemple avec le développement « équilibré » de la technologie entre les secteurs, ou le critère de disponibilité des ressources énergétiques. Par ailleurs, l'équité carbone, avec la convergence des technologies dans les secteurs à long terme, peut être mise en œuvre dans notre modèle et joue, dans ce cas, comme une contrainte supplémentaire dans l'optimisation multi-objectifs.Nos résultats montrent que les objectifs gouvernementaux en France et aux États-Unis sont « très stricts » car, pour les atteindre, tous les secteurs doivent réaliser des efforts importants de réduction de CO2. En revanche, l'objectif gouvernemental de la Chine s'avère « plus facile » à réaliser car les progrès dans les technologies qui sont nécessaires sont moins exigeants.Plus précisément, si on prévoit que le mix énergétique reste inchangé en Chine et aux États-Unis, le CSC deviendra indispensable dans le secteur de l'énergie. Pour la France, 80% des voitures devront être remplacées par des véhicules électriques afin d'atteindre son objectif en matière de CO2.Toutefois, en considérant l'équité carbone entre secteurs, la combustion du charbon est censée être réduite de deux tiers en Chine et devra être pratiquement éliminée aux États-Unis. Par contre, le gaz peut être encouragé dans son utilisation dans le secteur de l'énergie en particulier aux États-Unis. Concernant le secteur du transport, plus de 60 % des véhicules doivent être remplacés par des véhicules électriques en Chine. Cette part serait d'environ 90 % en France et aux États-Unis.Enfin, la sensibilité des paramètres du modèle a été testée pour simulations, à chaque étape du travail, et pour toutes les roadmaps technologiques. Les résultats des tests de sensibilité montrent que la production d'électricité et l'intensité d'émissions sont les deux paramètres dont l'influence est la plus importante sur les émissions futures de CO2. Ainsi l'amélioration de l'efficacité de la combustion du charbon et de l'efficacité énergétique de l'électricité joueront un rôle central dans la réductions des émissions de CO2. / In the context of global warming, academic institutes, international institutions such as the IPCC, and governments of numerous countries have proposed global objectives of reducing CO2 emissions and announced national targets. The purpose of this thesis is to assess the governmental targets in comparing with the global objectives of various allocation methods, which correspond to different carbon equity principles.In order to evaluate the technology roadmaps which are necessary to achieve these reductions of CO2 emissions, a flexible modeling framework is proposed for policy makers. Our sectoral model avoids the complex computing operations. It can be customized according to different requirements and situations. We simulate the model up to the horizon 2050, which is often seen as a turning point in energy use patterns worldwide – forced by the probable decline in hydrocarbons extraction.In the thesis, the technology roadmaps for the governmental targets on CO2 emissions are studied for three typical countries: China, France, and the United States. The model covers the sectors responsible for the greatest part of CO2 emissions: power, transport, residence and industry sector, in studying the impacts of the principle energy technologies, such as energy mix, Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), electric vehicles and energy efficiency.Various methods and approaches are used in our modeling. IPAT identity - which assumes the environment Impact is the results of Population, Affluence and Technology - is employed in the power sector emission decomposition. Besides STIRPAT - for Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence and Technology - model is used for the projection of CO2 emissions in the Business-as-Usual scenario. Then SVR - for Support Vector Regression - is used to forecast electricity production. Finally, the Theil index is employed as the measurement of per capita CO2 emission inequality. Different from classic cost-effective energy system models, our model provides the technology pathways for different criteria, such as balanced development of energy technology across sectors, availability of energy resources, etc. Besides, the carbon equity is employed as one of the constraints in the multi-objective optimization, under the consideration of the convergence of technologies in sectors in the long-term.Our results show that the governmental targets in France and the United States prove very strict, as they require all sectors to make large efforts in reducing CO2 emissions. In contrast, the governmental target in China seems more easily achievable, as the necessary advances of technologies are less demanding. More precisely: if the energy mix is expected to be kept unchanged in China and in the United States of America, the CCS prove indispensable in the power sector. In France, 80% of automobiles are required to be changed into electric vehicles, in order to get the target of CO2 emissions.However, under the sectoral carbon equity consideration, coal combustion is projected to be reduced by two thirds in China, and it will have to be almost eliminated in the United States to achieve their CO2 reduction target. But gas is encouraged to be used in the power sector, especially in the United States. Regarding the transport sector, more than 60% of vehicles should be replaced to electric vehicles in China, and this share will be about up to 90% in France and the United States.Finally the sensitivity of parameters in the model is tested for a robust simulation, at each step of the work, and for all technology roadmaps. The results of the sensitivity tests show that electricity production and the emission intensity of production are the two parameters with the most important influence on CO2 emissions. Thus improving the efficiency of coal combustion and the energy efficiency of electricity will play an important role in the CO2 emission reductions.

Introduction: The world is facing an economic crisis that has led to high energy prices in the EU. These high energy prices have been a contributing factor to the challenging economic situation in Sweden, affecting businesses, industries, and households. EU countries have limited access to energy and rely mostly on imports. The key objective is to reduce these costs through the utilization of renewable energy resources. Geothermal ventilation, in particular, is an efficient and promising source. However, this system has not yet been implemented in Sweden. The aim of this study is to investigate and analyze the effectiveness of horizontal ground geothermal ventilation systems in the context of Swedish conditions.Method: This study includes quantitative and qualitative data from a case study. Data collection involved literature study, interviews with various stakeholders, and simulations using Ansys software to analyze air flows and temperature conditions.Results: This section presents the results of a comprehensive study on basic geothermal ventilation in villas, carried out in accordance with Swedish environmental regulations. Interviews with representatives from ventilation companies and Jönköping municipality showed mixed opinions about the system's potential. While some expressed interest and approval due to energy savings and environmental adaptation, others had concerns about profitability and cost-effectiveness. Testing the system's efficiency using thermal exchange simulation software showed lower-than-expectedresults, indicating the need for further improvements. However, despite its lower efficiency, the geothermal ventilation system was still considered an environmentally friendly alternative to conventional methods, helping to reduce the environmental impact of the construction industry.Analysis: Ground geothermal ventilation system meets Swedish environmental standards and contributes to energy savings in new buildings. Although the system meets the standards, further improvements are needed to increase efficiency. Requirements and prerequisites include the right insulation classes and specially manufactured ground pipes. Implementation in villas can be challenging due to costs and heat delivery. Despite this, the system improves indoor air quality and reduces energy consumption, even if the temperature differences may be smaller than expected.Discussion: In this chapter, the results and conclusions from the study are discussed. Despite limited research on the subject, the study shows that shallow geothermal ventilation has potential, but there are challenges and limitations for implementation in Swedish villas. The method choice of literature review and qualitative interviews was appropriate to achieve the purpose, but more participants and research are needed to increase validity and reliability. Recommendations are given for further research in the area.

[pt] O objetivo dessa dissertação é apresentar a simulação de processos, no software Aspen HYSYS (marca registrada) v8.8, de uma planta de etanol derivado de cana-de-açúcar, abrangendo o sistema de cogeração e hidrólise enzimática aplicáveis ao bagaço, e associada a uma planta de cultivo de microalgas para produção de biodiesel de terceira geração. Adicionalmente, foram avaliados, por planejamento composto central 32, os efeitos de duas variáveis – designação de bagaço para hidrólise enzimática (x1) e de etanol para desidratação (x2) - sobre parâmetros de performance energéticos e ambientais restritos à planta, e negligenciando-se contribuições do âmbito rural. Em um cenário similar à realidade brasileira - coordenadas (0, 50 por cento) -, observou-se que a integração proporciona uma quantidade significativa de biodiesel (26,6 kg.t-1 de cana), em termos energéticos, além da oferta de etanol (62,2 kg.t-1 de cana). Nesse cenário, a demanda energética da seção de microalgas-biodiesel demonstrou-se semelhante à da planta de etanol. Os modelos produzidos demonstram-se robustos e precisos (R2 superiores a 0,998). As avaliações estatísticas indicaram que x1 afeta quadraticamente as respostas, e x2 promove efeitos nulos ou brandos. Destaca-se valores de NER - razão entre contribuições energéticas de produtos e de insumos do sistema -entre 0,763 e 0,904, próximos a 1; e valores de FER - razão entre as contribuições energéticas dos produtos e das participações fósseis de insumos - entre 4,33 e 10,88, acima 3, o que configura caráter renovável ao sistema. Dentre as otimizações de respostas, encontrou-se a coordenada (92 por cento, 0) para eficiência exergética global. Por fim, a associação das plantas de etanol e de biodiesel forneceu resultados promissores para as eficiências energéticas, razão entre oferta de energia total e consumo de energia fóssil, e incremento de eficiência exergética da planta de etanol original. / [en] The objective of this dissertation is to present a simulation in the software Aspen HYSYS (Registered trademark) v8.8 of a sugarcane-ethanol plant covering a cogeneration and an enzymatic hydrolysis system, applicable to bagasse final use, and associated to a microalgae-cultive plant for the production of third-generation biodiesel through transesterification route. Additionally, the effects of two variables - designation of bagasse to enzymatic hydrolysis (x1) and of ethanol to dehydration (x2) - were statistically evaluated by 3(2) central composite design over energetic and environmental performance parameters restricted to the plant s scope and being neglected contributions of the rural area. In a base scenario similar to Brazilian’s reality – coordinates (0, 50 per cent) –, it was observed that the integration provides a quantity of biodiesel (26.6 kg.t-1 of sugarcane) energetically significant, besides the supply of ethanol (62.2 kg.t-1 of sugarcane). In this case, the energetic demand of the microalgae-biodiesel section pointed to be similar the conventional ethanol plant consumption. The adjusted models were robust and precise (R2 higher than 0.998). The statistical assessments pointed that x1 affects quadratically the answers and x2 promotes null or mild effects. Stands out NER values - ratio between energetic contribution of products and inputs of the system - between 0.763 and 0.904, which were close to 1, and FER values - ratio between energetic contributions of products and fossil share of inputs - between 4.33 and 10.88 that were higher than the 3, which configured renewability to the system. Among the optimization of the answers, it was found the coordinate (92 per cent, 0) for the global exergetic efficiency. Finally, the association of the ethanol and biodiesel plants provided promising results for energetic efficiency, ratio between total delivered energy and demanded fossil energy, and increase in exergetic efficiency of the original ethanol plant.

In Sweden, buildings are responsible for about 40 % of total energy use and about 10 % of total CO2 emissions Today more than 60 % of existing Swedish residential buildings are over 40 years old and are in need of major renovation. In addition, 15 % of all multi-family buildings and 27 % of all single-family houses were built before 1945. The increased energy use and threat from CO2 emissions of the building sector create a need for energy efficiency. The important role that renovation of residential buildings will play in reducing the total energy used by the Swedish building sector as well as in reducing primary energy use and CO2 emissions on both the national and global levels has been the impetus for the studies included in this thesis. The aim of the current research is to develop a methodology from a system perspective which can be used to analyze the energy use, optimal life cycle cost (LCC), energy efficiency measure (EEM) package, indoor environment, CO2 emissions, and primary energy use of a building or a community during major renovation. The developed methodology accomplished at three different levels, i.e. building level, cluster level and district level. The methodology considers both energy efficiency and economic viability during building renovation and will also play an important role in overall urban planning. The studied buildings include both non-listed and listed residential buildings and the tools used include building energy simulation (BES), survey, technical measurements, LCC optimization and building categorization. The results show that the combination of BES, technical measurements and surveys provides a holistic approach for evaluation of energy use and indoor environment of the studied residential buildings. The results from the current study also show that the 2020 energy target, i.e., reduction of energy use by 20 %, for the building sector can be achieved by all the studied building types and that the total LCC of these buildings are below the cost-optimal point. In comparison, the 2050 energy target, i.e., reduction of energy use by 50 %, for the building sector may be achieved by the non-listed buildings, but when the constraints relevant to listed buildings are added the cost-optimality changes as some EEMs in direct conflict with the building’s heritage value may not be implemented. The investigation of primary energy use and CO2 emissions by the residential buildings show that the higher the energy saving, the lower the primary energy use becomes, and vice versa. With the same energy saving, the heating system with higher primary energy factor results in higher primary energy use. From a CO2 emissions point of view, EEM packages proposed to help buildings connected to a CHP based district heating system, to reduce the energy use or LCC are not consistently effective. Since these EEM packages will reduce district heating demand, the electricity produced in the CHP plant will also decrease. When the biomass is considered a limited resource, measures such as investment in a biofuel boiler are not favourable from the CO2 emissions point of view. The current study has also shown that combining building categorization method and LCC optimization method will help the community to reduce its energy use, primary energy use and CO2 emissions in a systematic and strategic way. / I Sverige, står byggnadssektorn för cirka 40 % av den totala energianvändningen och cirka 10 % av CO2-utsläppen. Idag är mer än 60 % av befintliga svenska bostäder över 40 år gamla och i stort behov av renovering. Dessutom är 15 % av alla flerbostadshus och 27 % av alla småhus byggda före 1945. Den ökade energianvändningen och hotet från CO2-utsläpp från byggsektorn skapar ett behov av energieffektivisering. Grunden för studierna i denna avhandling är den stora betydelse som renoveringen av bostäder har, såväl för att kunna minska den totala energianvändningen som den primärenergianvändningen och CO2-utsläppen på både nationell och global nivå. Syftet med denna forskning är att utveckla en metodik ur ett systematiskt perspektiv som kan användas för att analysera energianvändning, finna optimal livscykelkostnad (LCC), skapa energieffektiviseringsåtgärdspaket, undersöka inomhusmiljöer, beräkna CO2-utsläpp och primärenergianvändning i en byggnad eller ett samhälle vid omfattande renovering. Den utvecklade metodiken som har använts i de aktuella studierna är på tre olika nivåer: byggnadsnivå, klusternivå och stadsdelsnivå. Metodiken avser både energieffektivitet och ekonomisk lönsamhet vid renovering av byggnader och kommer också att spela en viktig roll i den övergripande stadsplaneringen. De studerande byggnaderna i denna avhandling innefattar både historiska och icke-historiska bostäder. De använda verktygen inkluderar building energy simulering (BES), enkätundersökning, tekniska mätningar, LCC-optimering och byggnadskategorisering. Resultaten visar att kombinationen av BES, tekniska mätningar och enkätundersökning ger en god helhetsbild för utvärdering av energianvändning och inomhusmiljö av den studerade byggnaden. Resultaten från den aktuella studien visar också att 2020-energimålet, d.v.s. en minskning av energianvändningen med 20 % till 2020 av byggsektorn, kan uppnås i alla undersökta byggnader och att den totala LCC av dessa byggnader ligger under den kostnadsoptimala punkten. I jämförelse, kan 2050-energimålet, d.v.s. en minskning av energianvändningen med 50 % till 2050, kan uppnås i icke-historiska byggnader, men med hänsyn tagen till begränsningarna för historiska byggnader, ändras de kostnadsoptimala lösningarna, eftersom vissa energieffektiviseringsåtgärder är i direkt konflikt med byggnadens kulturhistoriska värde och därför inte kan genomföras. Undersökningen av primärenergianvändning och CO2-utsläpp i de studerade byggnaderna visar, att ju högre energibesparingen är, desto lägre blir primärenergianvändningen, och vise versa. Med lika mycket energibesparing, resulterar värmesystemet med högre primärenergifaktor i högre primärenergianvändning. Sett från CO2-utsläppssynvinkel, är de energieffektiviseringsåtgärdspaket, som kan hjälpa byggnader anslutna till ett kraftvärmebaserat fjärrvärmesystem att minska energianvändningen eller LCC, inte effektiva, eftersom dessa åtgärdspaket kommer att minska fjärrvärmeanvändningen. Detta leder till att mängden producerad el i ett kraftvärmeverk också kommer att minskas. När biobränsle betraktas som en begränsad resurs, är åtgärder som investering i en biobränslepanna inte energieffektiva från en CO2-utsläppssynvikel. Den aktuella studien visar också att kombinationen av byggnadskategorisering och LCC-optimering kommer att hjälpa byggnadssektorn att minska sin energianvändning, primärenergianvändning och CO2-utsläpp på ett systematiskt och strategiskt sätt.

The increasing volume of solid waste (SW), not only arising from household (Municipal SW, MSW) but also from industrial process (Industrial SW, ISW), has become a serious issue in Chinese metropolises with the economic growth, urbanization, industrialization, and increasing affluence. Growth of industry leads to the expansion of population, while the augment of demand by increasing population stimulates the industrial growth in turn, thereby increasing not only ISW generation, but also MSW generation. Therefore, in order to solve the waste problem for the construction of sustainable waste management system in a city, it is necessary to consider these two types of waste together, in which, the emphasis should be focused on waste reduction from the source. The starting point in adopting this should be a good understanding of the upstream flow of waste and accurate knowledge of the volume and composition of waste that will be generated in the future. However, due to deficient historical records and complex production process, the effective attempts at forecasting SW generation are far from enough, especially for ISW by waste category. A common approach which is based on the limited waste statistics and can be easily popularized into Chinese countries is thus urgent. This paper, therefore, attempts the construction of a systematic approach to make projections of SW generation by waste category from the following issues: (1) to develop household consumer behaviour model taking into account lifestyle of residents and project the demand of private consumption in the future; (2) to quantitatively investigate and project MSW generation fully considering the change in consumer behaviour and waste management policies; (3) to effectively evaluate the present and future industrial structure and their contributions to ISW generation among industries; (4) to carry out a scenario analysis of calculating CO2 emissions in different waste treatment options based on the projected waste quantity and composition in 2015. The approach is applied on a city level as the basic administrative unit of SW management in China. The entire framework comprises four modules-regional macro-economic module, MSW generation module, ISW generation module, and waste treatment module. Further, the study of consumption pattern conducted from the consumer behaviour model in MSW module is a prerequisite for industrial restructuring caused by change in consumption demand in ISW module. Moreover, the regional macro-economic module is to provide a means for economic structural analysis and economic forecasting, considering the influence of national GDP and socioeconomic indicators including world trade. It is found out that the regional model fits the historical records reasonably well and provides an acceptable reproduction. In the MSW generation module for estimating and projecting MSW generation, firstly the per capita total household consumption expenditure is estimated by using total consumption expenditure model; then, household consumption pattern is estimated using an extension of the linear expenditure system (LES); thereafter, MSW generation by composition is quantitatively expressed in terms of the expenditure for consumption category and waste management policies by using ordinary least squares (OLS). Then, five Chinese cities with distinct economic levels are presented by applying the module to determine the waste generation features in different regions. The research findings clearly indicate that 1) the number of variables affecting consumer behaviour in Chinese cities is not one but the integrations of a series of indicators. Aside from Shanghai, saving rate towards consumption (SAV) and natural growth rate (NAGR) are currently the two common factors. However, in Shanghai, consumer behaviour is strongly influenced by SAV and the average number of persons per household (ANPH). 2) The MSW generation model quantitatively demonstrates the linear conversion process from consumption to corresponding waste generation in all cities. For example, education and consumption of food-as the form of consumption expenditure in this research-is the source of generation of food, plastic and paper waste. Further, glass and metal waste is estimated by food expenditure in all cities. 3) Total MSW generation per unit consumption is 0.198~0.225 kg/RMB with an average value of 0.213 kg/RMB. 4) All the waste management policies analyzed in the research will provide feasible experiences or valuable lessons to other Chinese cities. 5) Volume of per capita MSW generated in 2020 will be 1.24-2.18 folds compared to that in 2008 in each city if there were no effective policies implemented advancing to diminishing waste generation. Then, for the forecasting of ISW generation of each waste category by industry, the ISW module is developed, linking three principal models-regional macro-economic model, regional input-output (IO) analysis, and ISW generation model. The approach investigates the influence of industrial restructuring on ISW generation, based on the study of consumption patterns, export composition figures and change in ISW generation coefficient. The principal priorities in the case study on Shanghai are as follows: 1) the approach provides an idea for a way to quantitatively analyze industrial restructuring by adjusting the converter that, in turn, helps assess the impact of these changes on sectoral output. 2) A sensitivity analysis describes that per yuan of increase in consumption on FOOD, CLSH, FUNI, EDUC, TRAN, HLTH and RESI induces to an average increase of 76.41, 76.16, 82.28, 106.54, 93.89, 148.30 and 292.58 g total ISW, respectively. 3) It is verified that ISW generation not only arises from economic growth but also from the onset of industrial restructuring. The unit ISW generation per gross output reduces from 0.16 to 0.14 tons/10 000 RMB as we move from 2002 to 2020. 4) It is investigated that the total volume of ISW generated in 2010, 2015 and 2020 will be 2.07, 2.83 and 4.12 times that of the 2002 levels. The total SW generation of Shanghai in 2020 will be 4.06 times of that in 2002. 5) However, if considering scenario analysis of adjusting ISW generation coefficient, the total SW generation is 1.93 times compared to 2002 and ISW is 2.18 times of MSW generation. 6) Based on our results, the industrial sectors making the biggest contribution to the production of each type of ISW can each be separately identified. Therefore, constraining specific industries or penetrating them with selective technological changes will be useful attempts on the way to meeting the objectives of overall waste reduction. Finally, in the waste treatment module, the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions emitting from the treatment and disposal of waste, including landfill site, waste-to-energy incineration and composting are calculated, respectively. Further, based on the projection of waste quantity and composition of Shanghai in 2015, a scenario analysis is carried out as well concerning the GHG emissions from alternative treatment options. The results confirm that composting and recycling of waste before the treatment are effective attempts at reducing GHG emissions in Shanghai. Further, scenario designed as the integrated waste treatment system makes the biggest reduction of GHG emissions, as 34% as compared to current treatment options with energy recovery. In a word, this research develops the entire systematic approach investigating the upstream flow of waste generation from the viewpoint of economic growth, change in socioeconomic indicators and constitution of waste management policies, and makes a reasonable attempt at projecting SW generation of each type of waste category. Based on the results, it is suggested that for the waste reduction to promote sustainable society, government interventions including promoting green consumption, reducing extra consumption, et al. and waste policies such as increasing recycling and penetrating technological innovation in specific industries will be effective. Further, based on the forecasts of SW generation, the recycling and appropriate treatment of waste generating from municipal and industrial process can be examined from the long view. From the relationship between ISW and MSW generation, the development of industry will promote the growth of service industry and induce greater generation of recyclable items. While the recycling of these items before the waste treatment is essential for effectively reducing GHG emissions which contribute to global warming. In addition, the systematic model can be easily popularized into other Chinese cities even other Asian developing cities, thereby possibly promoting the sustainable waste management of China and Asian countries. / Kyoto University (京都大学) / 0048 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(工学) / 甲第14928号 / 工博第3155号 / 新制||工||1473(附属図書館) / 27366 / UT51-2009-M842 / 京都大学大学院工学研究科都市環境工学専攻 / (主査)教授 松岡 譲, 教授 森澤 眞輔, 准教授 倉田 学児 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当

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