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The growth in the interdependence and complexity of socio-technical systems requires the development of tools and techniques to aid in the formulation of better policies. The efforts of this research focus towards developing methodologies and support tools for better policy design and formulation. In this thesis, a new framework and a systematic approach for the formulation of policies are proposed. Focus has been directed to the interactions between policy measures, inspired by concepts in process design and network analysis. Furthermore, we have developed an agent-based approach to create a virtual environment for the exploration and analysis of different configurations of policy measures in order to build policy packages and test the effects of changes and uncertainties while formulating policies. By developing systematic approaches for the formulation and analysis of policies it is possible to analyse different configuration alternatives in greater depth, examine more alternatives and decrease the time required for the overall analysis. Moreover, it is possible to provide real-time assessment and feedback to the domain experts on the effect of changes in the configurations. These efforts ultimately help in forming more effective policies with synergistic and reinforcing attributes while avoiding internal contradictions. This research constitutes the first step towards the development of a general family of computer-based systems that support the design of policies. The results from this research also demonstrate the usefulness of computational approaches in addressing the complexity inherent in the formulation of policies. As a proof of concept, the proposed framework and methodologies have been applied to the formulation of policies that deal with transportation issues and emission reduction, but can be extended to other domains.

La maladie de Lyme est la maladie vectorielle la plus fréquente dans les pays tempérés et est en émergence dans plusieurs régions du monde. Plusieurs stratégies de prévention existent et comprennent des interventions qui visent les individus, comme le port de vêtements protecteurs, et d’autres qui sont implantées au niveau collectif, dont des interventions de contrôle des tiques dans l’environnement. L’efficacité de ces stratégies peut être influencée par divers facteurs, dont des facteurs sociaux tels que les connaissances, les perceptions et les comportements de la population ciblée. Elles peuvent également avoir des impacts parallèles non désirés, par exemple sur l’environnement et l’économie, et ces derniers peuvent s’opposer aux bénéfices des interventions jusqu’à remettre en cause la pertinence de leur mise en œuvre. Aussi, ces facteurs sociaux et les impacts des interventions sont susceptibles de varier selon la population ciblée et en fonction du contexte épidémiologique et social. L’objectif de cette thèse était donc d’étudier les principaux facteurs sociaux et enjeux d’importance à considérer pour évaluer l’efficacité et prioriser des interventions de prévention pour la maladie de Lyme dans deux populations exposées à des contextes différents, notamment en ce qui concerne leur situation épidémiologique, soient au Québec, où l’incidence de la maladie de Lyme est faible mais en émergence, et en Suisse, où elle est élevée et endémique depuis plus de trois décennies. L’approche choisie et le devis général de l’étude sont basés sur deux modèles théoriques principaux, soient le modèle des croyances relatives à la santé et celui de l’aide à la décision multicritère. Dans un premier temps, les facteurs associés à la perception du risque pour la maladie de Lyme, c’est-à-dire l’évaluation cognitive d’une personne face au risque auquel elle fait face, ont été étudiés. Les résultats suggèrent que les facteurs significatifs sont différents dans les deux régions à l’étude. Ensuite, l’impact des connaissances, de l’exposition, et des perceptions sur l’adoption de comportements préventifs individuels et sur l’acceptabilité des interventions de contrôle des tiques (acaricides, modifications de l’habitat, contrôle des cervidés) a été comparé. Les résultats suggèrent que l’impact des facteurs varierait en fonction du type du comportement et des interventions, mais que la perception de l’efficacité est un facteur commun fortement associé à ces deux aspects, et pourrait être un facteur-clé à cibler lors de campagnes de communication. Les résultats montrent également que les enjeux relatifs aux interventions de contrôle des tiques tels que perçus par la population générale seraient communs dans les deux contextes de l’étude, et partagés par les intervenants impliqués dans la prévention de la maladie de Lyme. Finalement, un modèle d’analyse multicritère a été développé à l’aide d’une approche participative pour le contexte du Québec puis adapté pour le contexte suisse et a permis d’évaluer et de prioriser les interventions préventives selon les différentes perspectives des intervenants. Les rangements produits par les modèles au Québec et en Suisse ont priorisé les interventions qui ciblent principalement les populations humaines, devant les interventions de contrôle des tiques. L’application de l’aide à la décision multicritère dans le contexte de la prévention de la maladie de Lyme a permis de développer un modèle décisionnel polyvalent et adaptable à différents contextes, dont la situation épidémiologique. Ces travaux démontrent que cette approche peut intégrer de façon rigoureuse et transparente les multiples perspectives des intervenants et les enjeux de la prévention relatifs à la santé publique, à la santé animale et environnementale, aux impacts sociaux, ainsi qu’aux considérations économiques, opérationnelles et stratégiques. L’utilisation de ces modèles en santé publique favoriserait l’adoption d’une approche « Une seule santé » pour la prévention de la maladie de Lyme et des zoonoses en général. Mots-clés : maladie de Lyme, prévention, facteurs sociaux, perception du risque, comportements préventifs, acceptabilité, priorisation des interventions, contrôle des tiques, aide à la décision multicritère, analyse multicritère, Québec, Suisse, « Une seule santé » / Lyme disease is the most common vector-borne disease in temperate countries and is emerging in many parts of the world. Several prevention strategies exist and include strategies at the individual level, such as wearing protective clothing, and at the population level, including tick control interventions in the environment. The effectiveness of these strategies can be influenced by various factors, including social factors such as knowledge, perceptions and behaviors of the target population, and by their potential impacts on various sectors such as on the environment and on the economy. Also, these social factors and impacts are likely to vary according to the epidemiological and social context of the target population. The objective of this thesis was to study the main social factors and issues of importance to consider for the prioritization of preventive interventions for Lyme disease in two populations living in different contexts, particularly with regard to their epidemiological situation, that is in Quebec, where the incidence of Lyme disease is low, but emerging, and Switzerland, where it is high and has been endemic for more than three decades. The approach and the design of this study were based on two main theoretical models, namely the Health Belief Model and the multicriteria decision analysis approach. Factors associated with risk perception, that is the cognitive assessment of a person facing a risk, for Lyme disease were studied initially in the target populations. The results suggest that factors significantly associated with a high level of risk perception are different in the two regions. Then, the impact of knowledge on Lyme disease, exposure, perceptions on the adoption of individual preventive behavior and on the acceptability of tick control interventions were compared. The data suggest that the impact of these factors varies according to the type of behavior and interventions, but that the perception of efficacy is a common factor strongly associated with both aspects, and could be targeted in communication campaigns. The results also show that issues related to tick control interventions as perceived by the participants are common in both contexts, and shared by the stakeholders involved in the prevention of Lyme disease. Finally, a multi-criteria analysis model was developed using a participatory approach for the Quebec context, adapted to the Swiss context and allowed to prioritize preventive interventions according to different stakeholder perspectives. Rankings produced by these models prioritized interventions that primarily target human populations in preference to tick control interventions. Applying the multi-criteria decision analysis approach in the context of Lyme disease prevention led to the development of a versatile decision model that can be adapted to different contexts, including the epidemiological situation. These studies show that this approach can offer a rigorous and transparent way to integrate the multiple perspectives of stakeholders and issues of prevention including those relating to public health, animal and environmental health, social impacts, as well as economic, operational and strategic considerations. Their use in public health practices could facilitate the adoption of a practical and applied “One health” approach to Lyme disease and other zoonosis prevention. Keywords: Lyme disease, prevention, social factors, risk perception, acceptability, prioritization of interventions, tick control, Multi-criteria decision analysis, MCDA, Quebec, Switzerland, "One health"

Costa Rica’s annual mean precipitation is above 3300 mm, but this precipitation is not evenly distributed in time or space, producing clear differentiated wet and dry seasons in most of the country. Droughts are also common phenomena which greatly affect the availability of water resources. Managed aquifer recharge (MAR) schemes are being taken into consideration to enhance the underground water storage capacity of the country. The present study constitutes the first assessment for the identification of suitable sites for the implementation of MAR technology spreading methods (SM) in Costa Rica. The suitable sites are identified by means of a geographic information system multi-criteria decision analysis (GIS-MCDA) based on four criteria: hydrogeological aptitude, terrain slope, top soil texture and drainage network density. Four steps are performed in order to identify these sites: problem definition, screening for suitable areas, suitability mapping, and sensitivity analysis. The suitability map was divided in two zones after the screening: suitable and unsuitable, the first zone was further divided in five classes according to the weighted linear combination (WLC) ranking. The results indicate that 61% of the country is suitable for conducting SM. This map is a tool for future implementation of MAR techniques in the country.

Allocating production volumes across a portfolio of producing assets is a complex optimization problem. Each producing asset possesses different technical attributes (e.g. crude type), facility constraints, and costs. In addition, there are corporate objectives and constraints (e.g. contract delivery requirements). While complex, such a problem can be specified and solved using conventional deterministic optimization methods. However, there is often uncertainty in many of the inputs, and in these cases the appropriate approach is neither obvious nor straightforward. One of the major uncertainties in the oil and gas industry is the commodity price assumption(s). This paper investigates this problem in three major sections: (1) We specify an integrated stochastic optimization model that solves for the optimal production allocation for a portfolio of producing assets when there is uncertainty in commodity prices, (2) We then compare the solutions that result when different price models are used, and (3) We perform a value of information analysis to estimate the value of more accurate price models. The results show that the optimum production allocation is a function of the price model assumptions. However, the differences between models are minor, and thus the value of choosing the “correct” price model, or similarly of estimating a more accurate model, is small. This work falls in the emerging research area of decision-oriented assessments of information value. / text

科学研究費補助金 研究種目:基盤研究(C)(2) 課題番号:10672124 研究代表者:大澤 功 研究期間:1998-2001年度

臺北都市公有空間由於缺乏供給與需求配置的妥善評估，產生許多設施與建築發生閒置與低度利用的情況，造成環境的負擔以及資源的不平均分配。同時，臺北市持續面臨高齡化社會現象，銀髮福利設施是政府未來發展項目重點之一，現行多數研究先少探究銀髮福利設施於區域之設置標準。本研究針對公有閒置設施活化利用為銀髮福利設施，透過國內外文獻回顧，歸納「安全性」、「規模性」、「參與性」為銀髮福利設施主要活化原則，並建立分析模型。接著援用各級政府閒置設施資料庫，並結合社經資料，應用GIS系統進行閒置設施供給與銀髮福利設施需求的配置分析。透過分析模型與多評準決策分析法，篩選與評估不同地區與空間適合發展銀髮福利設施配置，藉此研擬相關活化策略。 實證結果顯示臺北市市中心位置對於銀髮福利設施之需求為高，相對其缺乏資源，以萬華區、文山區、松山區為嚴重。各公有閒置設施受到內在外在條件之影響，各閒置設施發展強度不同，結果顯示鄰里型服務範圍較適合發展安養護機構、社區型服務範圍較適合發展日間照顧中心、地區型服務範圍較適合發展安養護與日間照顧混合型設施。最後依據各別公有閒置設施之配置結果，建議未來公有閒置設施活化為銀髮福利設施之策略，配合設施內在外在條件，如人口、政策、文化、區位等等，使閒置設施達到最大活化效益。 / In Taipei City, there are government owned urban facilities and buildings which become idle facilities and with low utilization due to the lack of proper evaluation of supply and demand. It causes uneven distribution of resources to environment. Meanwhile, Taipei city faces the issue of aging society. The Government has to develop pension facilities for future planning. There are few existing studies discussed about the configuration standard of pension facilities. Therefore, this study explores the planning principles of pension facilities included safety, scale of facilities, participation, and the activating operations of public idle spaces by using the social-economic and idle spaces data of the Government. Also, this study simulates supply and demand data with GIS system. We analyze and evaluate the allocations which suitable for developing pension facilities in different regions and spatial conditions through Allocation Simulation, multiple criteria decision. Thus, it can be a reference for activating idle spaces for Taipei city. The results of supply and demand simulation show that the demand for pension facilities is higher in the center of Taipei City that lack of resources, including Wanhua District, Wenshan District and Songshan District. Each government owned urban facilities may be affected by outer and inner conditions which cause different development intensity. The results show that neighbor-type facilities are suitable for developing retirement centers, community-type facilities are suitable for developing day care centers, region-type facilities are suitable for developing mix-used centers. Finally, according to all allocation results, it is recommended strategies should be added with outer and inner conditions which including population, policy, culture, location and allocation, in order to maximize the usage efficiency of idle facilities.

La implementació de la Directiva Europea 91/271/CEE referent a tractament d'aigües residuals urbanes va promoure la construcció de noves instal·lacions al mateix temps que la introducció de noves tecnologies per tractar nutrients en àrees designades com a sensibles. Tant el disseny d'aquestes noves infraestructures com el redisseny de les ja existents es va portar a terme a partir d'aproximacions basades fonamentalment en objectius econòmics degut a la necessitat d'acabar les obres en un període de temps relativament curt. Aquests estudis estaven basats en coneixement heurístic o correlacions numèriques provinents de models determinístics simplificats. Així doncs, moltes de les estacions depuradores d'aigües residuals (EDARs) resultants van estar caracteritzades per una manca de robustesa i flexibilitat, poca controlabilitat, amb freqüents problemes microbiològics de separació de sòlids en el decantador secundari, elevats costos d'operació i eliminació parcial de nutrients allunyant-les de l'òptim de funcionament. Molts d'aquestes problemes van sorgir degut a un disseny inadequat, de manera que la comunitat científica es va adonar de la importància de les etapes inicials de disseny conceptual. Precisament per aquesta raó, els mètodes tradicionals de disseny han d'evolucionar cap a sistemes d'avaluació mes complexos, que tinguin en compte múltiples objectius, assegurant així un millor funcionament de la planta. Tot i la importància del disseny conceptual tenint en compte múltiples objectius, encara hi ha un buit important en la literatura científica tractant aquest camp d'investigació. L'objectiu que persegueix aquesta tesi és el de desenvolupar un mètode de disseny conceptual d'EDARs considerant múltiples objectius, de manera que serveixi d'eina de suport a la presa de decisions al seleccionar la millor alternativa entre diferents opcions de disseny. Aquest treball de recerca contribueix amb un mètode de disseny modular i evolutiu que combina diferent tècniques com: el procés de decisió jeràrquic, anàlisi multicriteri, optimació preliminar multiobjectiu basada en anàlisi de sensibilitat, tècniques d'extracció de coneixement i mineria de dades, anàlisi multivariant i anàlisi d'incertesa a partir de simulacions de Monte Carlo. Això s'ha aconseguit subdividint el mètode de disseny desenvolupat en aquesta tesis en quatre blocs principals: (1) generació jeràrquica i anàlisi multicriteri d'alternatives, (2) anàlisi de decisions crítiques, (3) anàlisi multivariant i (4) anàlisi d'incertesa. El primer dels blocs combina un procés de decisió jeràrquic amb anàlisi multicriteri. El procés de decisió jeràrquic subdivideix el disseny conceptual en una sèrie de qüestions mes fàcilment analitzables i avaluables mentre que l'anàlisi multicriteri permet la consideració de diferent objectius al mateix temps. D'aquesta manera es redueix el nombre d'alternatives a avaluar i fa que el futur disseny i operació de la planta estigui influenciat per aspectes ambientals, econòmics, tècnics i legals. Finalment aquest bloc inclou una anàlisi de sensibilitat dels pesos que proporciona informació de com varien les diferents alternatives al mateix temps que canvia la importància relativa del objectius de disseny.El segon bloc engloba tècniques d'anàlisi de sensibilitat, optimització preliminar multiobjectiu i extracció de coneixement per donar suport al disseny conceptual d'EDAR, seleccionant la millor alternativa un cop s'han identificat decisions crítiques. Les decisions crítiques són aquelles en les que s'ha de seleccionar entre alternatives que compleixen de forma similar els objectius de disseny però amb diferents implicacions pel que respecte a la futura estructura i operació de la planta. Aquest tipus d'anàlisi proporciona una visió més àmplia de l'espai de disseny i permet identificar direccions desitjables (o indesitjables) cap on el procés de disseny pot derivar. El tercer bloc de la tesi proporciona l'anàlisi multivariant de les matrius multicriteri obtingudes durant l'avaluació de les alternatives de disseny. Específicament, les tècniques utilitzades en aquest treball de recerca engloben: 1) anàlisi de conglomerats, 2) anàlisi de components principals/anàlisi factorial i 3) anàlisi discriminant. Com a resultat és possible un millor accés a les dades per realitzar la selecció de les alternatives, proporcionant més informació per a una avaluació mes efectiva, i finalment incrementant el coneixement del procés d'avaluació de les alternatives de disseny generades. En el quart i últim bloc desenvolupat en aquesta tesi, les diferents alternatives de disseny són avaluades amb incertesa. L'objectiu d'aquest bloc és el d'estudiar el canvi en la presa de decisions quan una alternativa és avaluada incloent o no incertesa en els paràmetres dels models que descriuen el seu comportament. La incertesa en el paràmetres del model s'introdueix a partir de funcions de probabilitat. Desprès es porten a terme simulacions Monte Carlo, on d'aquestes distribucions se n'extrauen números aleatoris que es subsisteixen pels paràmetres del model i permeten estudiar com la incertesa es propaga a través del model. Així és possible analitzar la variació en l'acompliment global dels objectius de disseny per a cada una de les alternatives, quines són les contribucions en aquesta variació que hi tenen els aspectes ambientals, legals, econòmics i tècnics, i finalment el canvi en la selecció d'alternatives quan hi ha una variació de la importància relativa dels objectius de disseny. En comparació amb les aproximacions tradicionals de disseny, el mètode desenvolupat en aquesta tesi adreça problemes de disseny/redisseny tenint en compte múltiples objectius i múltiples criteris. Al mateix temps, el procés de presa de decisions mostra de forma objectiva, transparent i sistemàtica el perquè una alternativa és seleccionada en front de les altres, proporcionant l'opció que més bé acompleix els objectius marcats, mostrant els punts forts i febles, les principals correlacions entre objectius i alternatives, i finalment tenint en compte la possible incertesa inherent en els paràmetres del model que es fan servir durant les anàlisis. Les possibilitats del mètode desenvolupat es demostren en aquesta tesi a partir de diferents casos d'estudi: selecció del tipus d'eliminació biològica de nitrogen (cas d'estudi # 1), optimització d'una estratègia de control (cas d'estudi # 2), redisseny d'una planta per aconseguir eliminació simultània de carboni, nitrogen i fòsfor (cas d'estudi # 3) i finalment anàlisi d'estratègies control a nivell de planta (casos d'estudi # 4 i # 5). / The implementation of EU Directive 91/271/EEC concerning urban wastewater treatment promoted the construction of new facilities and the introduction of nutrient removal technologies in areas designated as sensitive. The need to build at a rapid pace imposed economically sound approaches for the design of the new infrastructures and the retrofit of the existing ones. These studies relied exclusively on the use of heuristic knowledge and numerical correlations generated from simplified activated sludge models. Hence, some of the resulting wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) were characterized by a lack of robustness and flexibility, bad controller performance, frequent microbiology-related solids separation problems in the secondary settler, high operating and maintenance costs and/or partial nutrient removal, which made their performance far from optimal. Most of these problems arose because of inadequate design, making the scientific community aware of the crucial importance of the conceptual design stage. Thus, these traditional design approaches should turn into more complex assessment methods in order to conduct integrated assessments taking into account a multiplicity of objectives an hence ensuring a correct plant performance. Despite the importance of this fact only a few methods in the literature addressed the systematic evaluation of conceptual WWTP design alternatives using multiple objectives. Yet, the decisions made during this stage are of paramount importance in determining the future plant structure and operation. The main objective pursued in this thesis targets the development of a systematic conceptual design method for WWTP using multiple objectives, which supports decision making when selecting the most desirable option amongst several generated alternatives. This research work contributes with a modular and evolutionary approach combining techniques from different disciplines such as: a hierarchical decision approach, multicriteria decision analysis, preliminary multiobjective optimization using sensitivity functions, knowledge extraction and data mining techniques, multivariate statistical techniques and uncertainty analysis using Monte Carlo simulations. This is accomplished by dividing the design method into 4 different blocks: (1) hierarchical generation and multicriteria evaluation of the design alternatives, (2) analysis of critical decisions, (3) multivariate analysis and, finally, (4) uncertainty analysis. The first block of the proposed method, supports the conceptual design of WWTP combining a hierarchical decision approach with multicriteria analysis. The hierarchical decision approach breaks down the conceptual design into a number of issues that are easier to analyze and to evaluate while the multicriteria analysis allows the inclusion of different objectives at the same time. Hence, the number of alternatives to evaluate is reduced while the future WWTP design and operation is greatly influenced by environmental, technical, economical and legal aspects. Also, the inclusion of a sensitivity analysis facilitates the study of the variation of the generated alternatives with respect to the relative importance of the objectives. The second block, analysis of critical decisions, is tackled with sensitivity analysis, preliminary multiobjective optimization and knowledge extraction to assist the designer during the selection of the best alternative amongst the most promising alternatives i.e. options with a similar overall degree of satisfaction of the design objectives but with completely different implications for the future plant design and operation. The analysis provides a wider picture of the possible design space and allows the identification of desirable (or undesirable) WWTP design directions in advance.The third block of the proposed method, involves the application of multivariate statistical techniques to mine the complex multicriteria matrixes obtained during the evaluation of WWTP alternatives. Specifically, the techniques used in this research work are i) cluster analysis, ii) principal component/factor analysis, and iii) discriminant analysis. As a result, there is a significant improvement in the accessibility of the information needed for effective evaluation of WWTP alternatives, yielding more knowledge than the current evaluation methods to finally enhance the comprehension of the whole evaluation process. In the fourth and last block, uncertainty analysis of the different alternatives is further applied. The objective of this tool is to support the decision making when uncertainty on the model parameters used to carry out the analysis of the WWTP alternatives is either included or not. The uncertainty in the model parameters is introduced, i.e input uncertainty, characterising it by probability distributions. Next, Monte Carlo simulations are run to see how those input uncertainties are propagated through the model and affect the different outcomes. Thus, it is possible to study the variation of the overall degree of satisfaction of the design objectives, the contributions of the different objectives in the overall variance to finally analyze the influence of the relative importance of the design objectives during the selection of the alternatives. Thus, in comparison with the traditional approaches the conceptual design method developed in this thesis addresses design/redesign problems with respect to multiple objectives and multiple performance measures. Also, it includes a more reliable decision procedure that shows in a systematic, objective and transparent fashion the rationale way a certain alternative is selected and not the others. The decision procedure provides to the designer/decision maker with the alternative that best fulfils the defined objectives, showing its main advantages and weaknesses, the different correlations between the alternatives and evaluation criteria and dealing with the uncertainty prevailing in some of the model parameters used during the analysis. A number of case studies, selection of biological nitrogen removal process (case study #1), optimization of the setpoints in two control loops (case study #2), redesign to achieve simultaneous organic carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus removal (case study #3) and evaluation of control strategies at plant wide level (case studies #4 and #5), are used to demonstrate the capabilities of the conceptual design method.

The traditional landings with large warships near the coastline have been replaced by means of vessels moving beyond the horizon from the coast where the landing will take place. The old landing crafts have been replaced by transport helicopters and close air support, a threat that the amphibious battalion lacks resources to meet. The Swedish Armed Forces faces a possible acquisition of MANPADS and therefore the main purpose with this study was to examine the systems: FIM-92 Stinger RMP, Mistral and RBS70 NG, in order to assess which one of them who had the greatest potential to be effective when used by the amphibious battalion in a coastal defense operation. The study was conducted as a multiple criteria decision analysis, based on the concept of military utility. The result indicated that the RBS70 NG was the system that best met the requirements and demonstrated the greatest potential to be military efficient, although Mistral with minor exceptions fulfilled the requirements. As the study was delimited to a theoretical study based on three specific scenarios, further studies are recommended with simulations, as well as field trials before the result can be given a higher validity. The result, however, already helps us to understand how MANPADS contributes with military utility in coastal defense operations. / De traditionella landstigningarna med stora fartyg uppträdandes kustnära har ersatts med metoder innebärandes att fartygen rör sig bortom horisonten från den kust där landsättningen/landstigningen ska ske. De gamla landstigningsbåtarna har i hög grad ersatts med helikoptrar som understödda av attackhelikoptrar och flygplan utgör den nya dimensionerande hotbilden. En hotbild som amfibiebataljonen saknar resurser för att möta. Då Försvarsmakten står inför en eventuell anskaffning av ett buret luftvärnssystem till amfibiebataljonen har denna undersöknings främsta syfte varit att bedöma vilket av systemen FIM-92 Stinger RMP, Mistral eller RBS70 NG som uppvisat störst potential att vara militärt effektivt när de nyttjas av en amfibiebataljon i kustförsvarsoperationer. Undersökningen genomfördes som en komparativ analys med multimålmetod och tre olika typfall som grund. Jämförelsen tog sin utgångspunkt kring teoribildningen om militär nytta och då mer specifikt militär effektivitet. Resultatet indikerade att RBS70 NG var det system som bäst mötte amfibiebataljonens krav och därmed uppvisade störst potential att vara militärt effektivt, även om Mistral med enstaka undantag också uppfyllde kraven till synes utan begränsningar. Då studien avgränsats till en teoretisk jämförelse i tre specifika typfall, rekommenderas fortsatta studier med såväl simuleringar som praktiska prov innan resultatet kan ges en högre validitet. Resultatet bidrar däremot redan nu till en förståelse för vad som ökar den militära effektivitetenvid genomförande av kustförsvarsoperationer.

Made available in DSpace on 2009-11-18T19:01:04Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 Previous issue date: 2003 / Auctions are secular institutions used in the commercial relationships among individuaIs and organizations. They provi de greater flexibility to the processes of determination of prices and allocation of goods, increasing the space for negotiations among buyers and sellers. In the Internet, they have been used, in a growing way, in B2B and G2B electronic commerce, mostly through the model of reverse auctions. However, its unidimensional aspect reduces the negotiations to the variable price, producing, many times, bad results. In the Brazilian case, the Federal Government launched Comprasnet, an Internet public emarketplace, through which public organizations acquire goods and services from registered suppliers. Considering alI the available bidding modalities, 'Electronic Pregão' stands out, as an unidimensional reverse auction, based on price, through which suppliers dispute for contracts of the public administration. In the present work, the author proposes a multicriteria decision-making approach, based on Multi-attribute Utility Theory, as an alternative for the adoption of multi-attribute reverse auctions, adding value to Brazilian Public Buying Organizations. / Leilões são instituições seculares utilizadas nas relações comerciais entre indivíduos e organizações. Provêem maior flexibilidade aos processos de determinação de preços e alocação de bens, aumentando o espaço para negociações entre compradores e vendedores. Na Internet, têm sido empregados, de maneira crescente, em atividades de comércio eletrônico B2B e G2B, em sua maioria, através da modalidade de leilão reverso. No entanto, seu aspecto unidimensional reduz as negociações à variável preço, produzindo, muitas vezes, resultados aquém do desejado. No caso brasileiro, o Governo Federal instituiu o Portal Comprasnet, através do qual, as organizações públicas adquirem bens e serviços de fornecedores cadastrados. Dentre as modalidades de licitação disponíveis, destaca-se o Pregão Eletrônico, um mecanismo de leilão eletrônico reverso baseado no atributo preço, através do qual, fornecedores submetem lances decrescentes, na disputa por contratos do setor público. No presente trabalho, o autor propõe uma abordagem de decisão multicritério, baseada na Teoria da Utilidade Multiatributo, como uma alternativa para a adoção de leilões reversos baseados em múltiplos atributos e, consequentemente, para uma maior agregação de valor pelas organizações compradoras do setor público brasileiro.