<p>No Fault Founds (NFFs) are an expensive problem faced by the airline industry. The underlying cause of NFFs are a major focus of research work in the field, but the dearth of consistent data is a roadblock faced by many decision makers. An important risk factor identified is the occurrence rate of NFFs.</p><p>This research work aims to help decision makers in the Airline Maintenance, Repair and Overhaul teams, when faced with recurring NFFs, to make a choice based on value derived from the system and risk preference of the decision maker under uncertainty. The value of the aircraft fleet is laid out using Net Present Value at every decision point along the system life cycle while accounting for the uncertainty in the failure rate information. Two extreme decisions are considered for the decision maker to choose between: rebooting the system every time a failure occurs and results in an NFF which allows for it to recur while reducing uncertainty of the failure rate; or eliminating the failure mode which assumes that the failure does not recur and therefore completely removes the uncertainty. Both decisions have their associated uncertain costs that affect the NPV calculated. We use a Monte Carlo approach to estimate the expected profit from deciding to eliminate the failure mode. We make use of Expected Utility Theory to account for the risk preference of a decision maker under uncertainty and build an Expected Utility Maximizing decision framework.</p>To conclude we give some guidance to interpret the results and understand what factors influence the optimal decision. We conclude that not accounting for uncertainty in estimating a failure rate for the future along with uncertainty in NFF costs can lead to an undesirable decision. If the decision maker waits too long to gather more information and reduce uncertainty, then rebooting the system for the remaining life could be more worthwhile than spending the large amount of money to Eliminate a failure mode. Finally, we conclude that, despite uncertainties in information of occurrence rates and costs of NFFs, an Expected Utility maximizing decision between the two options considered – Reboot and Eliminate – is possible given the available information.

Во Введении обоснована актуальность темы исследования, описана методологическая и эмпирическая база исследования, поставлены цель и задачи. В первой главе представлен обзор научной и методологической литературы, выявлена система определений объекта и предмета, отвечающие цели исследования. Систематизированы сложившиеся модели, подходы и методы к оценке стоимости предприятий, выявлены те из них, которые наиболее полно отвечают реалиям настоящего времени. Вторая глава посвящена аналитическому описанию и расчету стоимости ООО “NF-Сервис”, в ходе которого применен метод дисконтированных денежных подтоков как наиболее полно отражающий рыночные перспективы компании. Здесь же предложена модель оценки, учитывающая уровни значимости внутренних и внешних факторов. В третьей главе проведена адаптация модели к текущим условиям деятельности оцениваемой компании, представлен скорректированный расчет ее стоимости, показаны и аргументированы изменения результатов оценки. Итоговые выводы по работе в целом приведены в Заключении. / The Introduction substantiates the relevance of the research topic, describes the methodological and empirical base of the study, sets the goal and objectives. The First Chapter provides an overview of scientific and methodological literature, identified a system of definitions of the object and subject that meet the objectives of the study. The existing models, approaches and methods for assessing the value of enterprises are systematized, those that most fully meet the realities of the present time are identified. The Second Chapter is devoted to the analytical description and calculation of the value of LLC “NF-Service”, during which the method of discounted cash inflows is used as the most fully reflecting the market prospects of the company. Here, a model of evaluation is proposed, taking into account the levels of importance of internal and external factors. In the Third Chapter carried out to adapt the model to current conditions of activity of the company being valued provides a corrected calculation of its cost, and shows convincingly change the results of the evaluation. The final conclusions on the work as a whole are given in the Conclusion.

För att upprätthålla en blomstrande ekonomi i samhället är det viktigt att marknaderna och de finansiella systemen är välfungerande och rationella, eftersom stabil ekonomisk tillväxt ökar välfärden i samhället. En grundläggande förutsättning för detta antagande är att företag värderas med förnuft och rationalitet för att undvika övervärderingar, vilket i sin tur kan ledatill volatilitet och minskad likviditet som inte är fördelaktigt för att upprätthålla förtroende föraktievärdering. Den digitala eran vi lever i har gjort det möjligt för nästan vem som helst att agera investerare på olika börser. Börserna är och har under de senaste åren varit högre värderade än någonsin tidigare. Att investera är att fatta ekonomiska beslut genom att allokera medel i tillgångar, där du förväntar dig en avkastning på investeringen. När en investerare förvärvar sådana tillgångar baserar de vanligtvis sitt beslut på tillgängliga ekonomiska data. Denna ekonomiska data kan komma i olika former, det kan vara årsredovisningar, kvartalsrapporter, värderingar, nyheter om företaget, globala externa faktorer och i vissa fall rekommendationer från andraköpare. Alla investerare har inte den djupgående kunskap som krävs för att sätta ett fundamentaltvärde på en aktie i ett företag, detta medför en risk för övervärdering för företag. Det finns många modeller och metoder för att värdera ett företag och en typisk metod som används är substansvärdering. Kortfattat betyder det att du drar av ett företags totala skulder från de totalatillgångarna, vilket ger dig ett substansvärde på aktierna. Man skulle snabbt inse att detta inte speglar det verkliga värdet av alla företag och därmed inte ger den fullständiga bilden av marknaden och tillväxten. / To sustain a thriving economy in society it's important that the markets and financial systems are well functioning and rational, since stable economic growth increases welfare in society. A fundamental condition for this assumption is that companies are valued with reason and rationality to avoid overevaluations, which in turn may lead to volatility and decreased liquidity that are non-beneficial for maintaining a trust in stock valuation. The digital era we live in has made it possible for almost anyone to act as an investor indifferent stock exchanges. The stock markets are and have for the past years been higher value than ever before. To invest is to conduct economic decisions by allocating means in assets, in which you expect a return on the investment. When an investor acquires such assets they usually base their decision on the economic data available. This economic data may come in different shapes, it could be annual reports, quarterly reports, valuations, news about the company, global external factors and in some cases recommendations from other buyers. All investors don't possess the profound knowledge required to put a fundamental value on a stock in a company, this brings a risk of overvaluation for companies. There are numerous models and methods to value a company and a typical method that is applied is substance valuation. In short, that means that you subtract a company's total liabilities from the total assets, that gives you a substance value of the stocks. One would quickly realize that this doesn't reflect the true value of all companies and thus not giving the full picture of the market and growth. This study is written in Swedish language.

Goal of thesis "Valuation of company Auto Koutek, s.r.o." is to determine the value of company for shareholder on 31st December 2009 that should take place in evaluating of company's managers. Thesis is divided in theoretical part, which summarize processes and methods used in valuation of company, and practical part. Firstly practical part analyzes company's performance and its surroundings. This part is followed by financial plan of company for years from 2010 to 2017. Valuation DCF models are than based on this financial plans. Value of company is than analyzed with sensitivity analysis and by Monte Carlo simulation that are trying to analyze uncertainty connected with calculated value of company.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-04-25T18:40:17Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 WilsonLima.pdf: 1049312 bytes, checksum: b2359c76478fa86e67a278b3c988222a (MD5) Previous issue date: 2006-04-24 / Our study is a contribution to the discounted cash flow model application and the use of the information contained in the financial reports for valuation purposes. The presentation starts with a description of the main financial markets, their functioning, most important segments: monetary, credit, capital and foreign exchange markets. The capital market is the place where companies deal their shares. In the stock market the first crucial information is given: the firm s market value that is a result of the share negotiation unit price multiplied by the total number of existing company s stocks. Also important in this part of the work is the reasoning behind investors information use. A detailed overview of the information given by the financial reports and their most common utilization is the next required step of the work. The last part of the theory revision is the presentation of the firm s evaluation models described in the modern financial theory and the presentation of that one to be applied in our case study: the discounted cash flow model. The case was built on the mentioned theory foundations. The material for the case consists of the Companhia Vale do Rio Doce available financial reports taken from the company s site in Internet. They are those required by the Comissão de Valores Mobiliários, the equivalent in Brazil of the Security Exchange Commission. In the conclusion the value calculated through discounted cash flow model based on different assumptions for the value drivers define an interval where the market value of the company can be placed in / O objetivo deste estudo é oferecer uma contribuição à utilização das demonstrações financeiras produzidas segundo as normas contábeis brasileiras como base para a avaliação de empresas segundo o método dos fluxos de caixa descontados. Inicia-se o trabalho pela apresentação dos mercados financeiros: o monetário, o de crédito, o de capitais e o cambial, suas finalidades e seu funcionamento básico. Num segundo momento, focaliza-se um segmento do mercado de capitais: o de ações, suas principais características e o preço das ações que formará o valor de mercado de uma empresa e de que forma o mercado trata a utilização de informações relevantes segundo a teoria de finanças. Em seguida, analisam-se em detalhe a informação contida nos relatórios contábeis e os usos mais comuns dados a esta informação. Por fim descrevemos os modelos de avaliação de empresas da moderna teoria de finanças e o método escolhido para a análise do caso: o do fluxo de caixa descontado. Após a exposição dos fundamentos teóricos, inicia-se o estudo de caso sobre o material disponibilizado pela própria empresa em seu sítio na Internet, contendo as demonstratções financeiras produzidas para fins de atendimento das normas da Comissão de Valores Mobiliários. Como fechamento do trabalho, entende-se que os valores calculados através do fluxo de caixa descontado com base em diferentes hipóteses sobre os direcionadores de valor formam um intervalo estatístico no qual se encontra o valor atribuído à empresa pelo mercado

金融海嘯提供企業以最低成本進行併購的機會，企業藉此達到外部成長的目的，但併購案之綜效價值如何轉化成有意義的數據，幫助主併公司進行併購價格的評估，是許多企業在進行併購時的疑問。 　　本研究的目的為運用企業評價中的現金流量折現法與實質選擇權法，來進行神基科技收購華孚科技之併購價值評估。本研究利用現金流量折現法與實質選擇權評價法相互搭配，將各項決策所創造之彈性價值納入分析，更充分涵蓋併購策略的綜效價值。 　　研究結果顯示，若不考量選擇權彈性價值，則神基科技收購華孚科技所付出之溢價很高，已接近華孚之未來可能價值。加入了選擇權價值之擴充性淨現值比收購價格高出很多，顯示主併公司在評估該收購案時，可能已考量策略彈性價值。 / Financial crisis leads to an opportunity for the enterprise to do mergers and acquisitions at the lower cost. The enterprise could achieve external growth by mergers and acquisitions. However, how to translate the synergy of merger into meaningful data to help companies evaluate the accurate acquisition price during M&A is important and difficult. The objective of this study is to use the evaluation methods of enterprise value during M&A process, including discounted cash flow method (DCF) and real options method, to accurately evaluate the enterprise value of the combined one. The foundation will be based on the evaluation on the two existing companies. Then the assumption of the running situation after merging, and the judgment of the dimension of coordination effects will be the key points.

Mit zunehmender wirtschaftlicher Bedeutung der Emerging Markets steigt der Bedarf an Unternehmensbewertungen im Kontext dieser Länder. Ihre besonderen Charakteristika erschweren jedoch eine Anwendung der in Industrieländern standardmäßig verwendeten Methoden. Ausgehend von idealisierenden Bedingungen wird in einer integrativen Betrachtung der Frage nachgegangen, wie die vorherrschenden Bedingungen (insbesondere Länderrisiken und Investmentbarrieren) in einem grenzüberschreitenden Bewertungskalkül berücksichtigt werden können.

Made available in DSpace on 2014-12-17T15:53:14Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 JosueLR.pdf: 390948 bytes, checksum: 7300e4a411e986ff09cb4dd3c5f37a2e (MD5) Previous issue date: 2005-08-29 / This study has as main objective to verify the effect of the tax and financial incentives granted by the brazilian states, specially in the reduction of ICMS on the investment decision of the entities, which in the last years led to the companies to decide new projects in based on the region that presented the better infrastructure beyond lesser tributary expense. For in such was made an economic valuation of the companies with focus in the beneficiary s optics using an adaptation of the Discounted Cash Flow method to measure the impact of the tax incentives in the value of the companies, this study selected the textile industry segment located in the State of Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil. The results indicated that such incentives created addition in the value of the companies, however the inexistence of incentives would not be enough to a negative decision of investment in the Rio Grande do Norte. The smallest difference between the value with and without incentive observed was 8.9%, and the biggest 31.7%, and the average of value aggregation with the tax incentives represented 18.9% / Este estudo tem como objetivo principal verificar o efeito dos incentivos fiscais e financeiros concedidos pelos Estados brasileiros, em especial a redu??o de ICMS, na decis?o de investimento das entidades, que tem, nos ?ltimos anos, levado as empresas a decidirem seus novos projetos em fun??o da regi?o que tiver melhor infra-estrutura, al?m de menor gasto tribut?rio. Para tanto, foi efetuada a avalia??o econ?mica das empresas, com foco na ?tica do benefici?rio, utilizando-se uma adapta??o do m?todo de Fluxo de Caixa Descontado, para mensurar o impacto dos incentivos fiscais no valor das empresas, sendo selecionado o segmento da ind?stria t?xtil, localizado no Estado do Rio Grande do Norte, Brasil. Os resultados encontrados indicam que tais incentivos provocam acr?scimo no valor das empresas, entretanto a inexist?ncia de incentivos n?o seria suficiente para que a decis?o de investimento no Rio Grande do Norte fosse negativa. A menor diferen?a entre o valor com e sem incentivo observada foi de 8,9%, a maior foi 31,7% e a m?dia de agrega??o de valor com o incentivo fiscal foi de 18,9%

The main aim of the diploma thesis is to determine the market value of a corporation for the purpose of choosing an alternative to maintain the owner's regular financial income or to ochieve a one-off income from the sale of this business corporation. The chosen company was MADETA a. S. The DCF method was chosen for the award. The characteristics of the selected company, the strategic and financial analysis, the value generators and the financial plan are processed. All this was used to determine the market value of the corporate corporation as of December 31, 2015. In the end of the thesis, the alternative of maintaining the owner's regular financial income or a one-off income from the sale is evaluated.

A globalização, a maior ou menor estabilidade financeira e política e o atual nível de desenvolvimento econômico que o Brasil vem apresentando, condição que lhe concedeu a classificação de investment grade, obtido em 30 de abril de 2008, pela Agência Standard & Poor’s, conjugado com o nível de renda que a população vem atingindo, está transformando o país num mercado atrativo ao capital externo. A regulamentação do setor de saúde privada iniciada com a lei 9656/98 e com a criação da Agência Nacional de Saúde Suplementar – ANS, em 2000, fez com que este segmento mercadológico passasse a atrair a curiosidade e, agora, o direcionamento da atenção de mega investidores. Neste mercado há uma importante participação das cooperativas médicas e odontológicas - com significativa parte no share – aproximadamente 40%, no seu conjunto. A regulamentação vem causando certa concentração do setor pela aquisição de carteiras ou até mesmo de toda a empresa, sendo que estas negociações atingem a casa dos bilhões de reais. Essas situações encontram nas sociedades cooperativas médicas e odontológicas peculiaridades que divergem destas facilidades de negociação. / Globalization, financial and political stability and current degree of economical development that Brazil are living (because of these condition Standard & Poor’s gave to Brazil the classification of investment grade on April 30th, 2008) combined with Brazilians income degree are converting Brazil in an attractive market for outside capital. Private health sector regulamentation which started with the Brazilian law number 9656 from 1998, and the creation of Agência Nacional de Saúde Suplementar – ANS (in 2000) let this sector to attract curiosity and nowadays the attention of big stakeholders. Medical and odontological cooperatives have important participation in this market with signification part in share – like 40% on its set. The regulamentation bring on a concentration in the sector by portfolio purchase or until same all firm acquisition – that involves trillion of Brazilian reais. These situations find on medical and odontological cooperatives quirks that diverge from negotiations facilities.