[pt] A resposta do nível de atividade a movimentos de política monetária costuma ser caracterizada pela heterogeneidade entre diferentes setores, em termos de intensidade e velocidade de resposta. Em particular, setores produtores de bens duráveis tendem a exibir uma resposta mais intensa e mais rápida, em contraste com uma resposta mais fraca e mais lenta de setores produtores de bens não duráveis. Uma interpretação convencional atribui essa heterogeneidade a uma maior sensibilidade da demanda por bens duráveis às condições de crédito, enquanto a demanda por bens não duráveis dependeria primordialmente da dinâmica da renda do trabalho, que por sua vez tenderia a ser menos volátil e a responder aos estímulos do crédito com alguma defasagem. Há, entretanto, uma séria carência de estudos que isolem e quantifiquem a contribuição da renda do trabalho para a transmissão da política monetária, ao contrário do que ocorre em relação a outros fatos estilizados relacionados ao ciclo econômico. Esta dissertação faz uma tentativa de quantificação mediante técnicas baseadas em vetores auto-regressivos, que permitem construir uma resposta contrafactual da economia a um choque monetário desligando o canal de transmissão que passa pela renda do trabalho. Os primeiros resultados obtidos para a economia norteamericana, com uma amostra que vai de 1980 a 1997, indicam que a transmissão dos choques monetários para os setores produtores de bens não duráveis depende quase integralmente do canal da renda do trabalho, enquanto no caso dos bens duráveis a contribuição desse canal, embora perceptível, não é proporcionalmente tão dominante. Esses resultados, contudo, não são robustos à extensão do período amostral para incluir dados até 2004, que sugere uma substancial perda de importância do canal da renda. / [en] The GDP answer to monetary policy stimulus is characterized by heterogeneity among different sectors, in terms of intensity and duration. Furthermore, durable goods producer tend to present a faster and intense response while the non durable producer use to react with bigger lags and in a softer way. A conventional lecture assign those differences to a more sensitive demand of durable goods to credit conditions as long as the non durables depends primarily on the work income dynamics, which in turn is less volatile and reacts to monetary policy impulses in a sluggish way. However, there is a serious gap of studies that isolate and quantify the work income channel of the monetary policy transmission mechanism, assaying the well known facts related to the economic business cycle. The purpose of this work is to quantify this mechanism using a VAR framework approach, which allows counterfactuals impulse response functions construction turning off the work income channel of monetary policy transmission of a given closed economy. The first results, using US economy quarterly data from 1980 to 1997, shows that the monetary policy transmission to non durable goods sector depends almost exclusively on the work income channel in contrast to the durable goods sector, which depends in a less exclusively way. Nevertheless, the extended exercise corresponding to an extended data, from1980 to 2004 hints a substantial loss of power explanation of the work income channel.

Titel: Hållbarhetsrapportering inom två branscher - En jämförande studie på börsnoterade företag i Skandinavien   Nivå: C-uppsats inom ämnet företagsekonomi   Författare: Emma Basic & Albin Nordin   Handledare: Fredrik Hartwig   Datum: 2018 - januari   Syfte: Tidigare forskning har visat att bransch är en påverkande faktor till skillnader i hållbarhetsrapporter mellan företag. Forskning har gjorts på olika branscher från ett antal olika länder. Det finns ingen tidigare forskning på endast två branscher där en är förorenad och den andra icke förorenad och heller inte på Skandinavien. Syftet med denna studie är därför att undersöka om bransch är en påverkande faktor till skillnader i mängd hållbarhetsinformation i hållbarhetsrapporter mellan branscherna sällanköpsvaror och industritjänster för företag i Skandinavien.   Metod: Denna studie utgår från den positivistiska forskningstraditionen och följer den deduktiva linjen inom forskning. Studien syftar till att vara objektiv och använder sig av den kvantitativa metoden där en databaserad innehållsanalys utförs för att kunna mäta hållbarhetsrapporteringen. Studien utgår även från en komparativ design där insamling av data sker utifrån en tvärsnittsdesign. Statistiska kontroller i form av en bivariat analys och en multipel regression utförs i studien med hjälp av det statistiska programmet SPSS.   Resultat & Slutsats: Studien visar att bransch är en påverkande faktor till skillnader i mängd hållbarhetsinformation i hållbarhetsrapporter för företag i Skandinavien. Studien visar att branschen sällanköpsvaror hållbarhetsrapporterar mer än branschen industritjänster. Denna bransch rapporterar mer både inom miljö- och social rapportering. Vi tror att detta främst beror på att branschen sällanköpsvaror påverkar miljön mer och därför också rapporterar mer inom miljö. Varför denna bransch även rapporterar mer inom det sociala kan bero på att orden i innehållsanalysen möjligtvis riktar sig mer mot produktionsföretag. Förslag till fortsatt forskning: Något som skulle vara intressant för vidare forskning är att göra en liknande studie men rikta sig mot andra branscher och även ta med landet Finland som ligger i Norden och liknar de skandinaviska länderna. Det skulle också vara intressant att undersöka hållbarhetsrapporter från två andra år då denna studie undersöker år 2014 och 2016 och även att rikta sig mot enbart företag från Small, Mid eller Large cap då denna studie riktar sig mot alla dessa. Uppsatsens bidrag: Studien bidrar med att fastställa att bransch är en påverkande faktor till skillnader i hållbarhetsrapporter mellan branscherna sällanköpsvaror och industritjänster för företag i Skandinavien vilket inte forskats kring tidigare. Studien använder sig även av ett antal kontrollvariabler och fastställer om dessa har en påverkan på skillnaderna i hållbarhetsapporter. Studien kommer fram till att storlek påverkar skillnaderna medan tid inte gör det. För variabeln land visar studien att företag från Danmark hållbarhetsrapporterar mindre än företag från Sverige och Norge. / Title: Sustainability reporting in two industries - A comparative study of listed companies in Scandinavia.   Level: Final assignment for Bachelor Degree in Business Administration   Author: Emma Basic & Albin Nordin   Supervisor: Fredrik Hartwig   Date: 2018-January   Aim: Previous research has shown that industry is an influencing factor to differences in sustainability reports for companies. Research has been conducted on different industries from various countries. Research has not been done on only two industries where one is polluted and the other is not for companies in Scandinavia. The aim of this study is therefore to investigate whether industry is a influencing factor to differences in the amount of sustainability information in sustainability reports between the industries durable goods and industrial services for companies in Scandinavia.   Method: This study is based on the positivist research tradition and follows the deductive line of research. The study aims to be objective and uses the quantitative method in which a data-based content analysis is performed to measure sustainability reporting. The study is also based on a comparative design where the data collection is based from a cross sectional design. Statistical controls in form of a bivariate analysis and a multiple regression are made in the study using the statistical program SPSS.   Result & Conclusions: The study shows that industry is an influencing factor to differences in the amount of sustainability information in sustainability reports for companies in Scandinavia. The study shows that companies in the industry durable goods sustainability reports more than companies in industrial services. This industry reports more in both environmental and social reporting. We believe this may be because durable goods affects the environment more and therefore also report more environment information. Why the industry also reports more social information can according to us be because the words in the content analysis may possibly be more targeted to product companies.   Suggestions for future research: Something that would be interesting for further research is to do a similar study but focus on other industries. It would also be interesting to bring the country Finland in the study because the country is in the Nordic region and is similar to the Scandinavian countries. Further research could also investigate sustainability reports from two other years because this study examine 2014 and 2016 and also only target Small, Mid or Large cap since this study examines all of these.   Contribution of the thesis: The study helps to determine that industry is a contributing factor to differences in sustainability reports between the industries durable goods and industrial services for companies in Scandinavia which has not been researched earlier. The study also uses a number of control variables and determines whether these have an impact on differences in sustainability reports. The study finds that size affects the differences while time do not. For the variable country, the study shows that companies from Denmark sustainability reports less than companies from Sweden and Norway.

Submitted by Luciana Ferreira (lucgeral@gmail.com) on 2017-06-02T10:57:19Z No. of bitstreams: 2 Dissertação - Lúbia Gonzaga Dutra - 2012.pdf: 1607563 bytes, checksum: aa5cf4fcac45402e19aef3e05f9139ee (MD5) license_rdf: 0 bytes, checksum: d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Luciana Ferreira (lucgeral@gmail.com) on 2017-06-02T11:14:49Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 2 Dissertação - Lúbia Gonzaga Dutra - 2012.pdf: 1607563 bytes, checksum: aa5cf4fcac45402e19aef3e05f9139ee (MD5) license_rdf: 0 bytes, checksum: d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-06-02T11:14:49Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 Dissertação - Lúbia Gonzaga Dutra - 2012.pdf: 1607563 bytes, checksum: aa5cf4fcac45402e19aef3e05f9139ee (MD5) license_rdf: 0 bytes, checksum: d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e (MD5) Previous issue date: 2012-08-31 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior - CAPES / The expansion and increase of jobs in the service sector are relevant phenomena that contributed to changing the labor scape. Trade is one of the traditional sub-sectors in the Brazilian economy, which absorbs a considerable portion of the labor force. However, the retail industry experiences a structural change that opens the possibility of becoming an eminent producer of new identities related to consumption. This study aims to analyze the durable goods retail sale service, addressing the following issues: retail, the current configuration of labor and consumer society, identity at work, interactions in service sale, and gender relations in durable goods retail. Considering the scarce studies on the service sector in Brazilian scientific production, this analysis aims to contribute to the debate on changes in the world of labor, as well as to provide a perspective to sales work field through a sociological approach. This research applies a triangulation methodology, and includes descriptive analysis of official databases produced by national research institutions coupled with qualitative fieldwork in two retail service companies, using the techniques of systematic observation and semi-structured interviews. / A expansão das atividades e o aumento da oferta de emprego no setor de serviços são fenômenos relevantes que contribuíram para as transformações no mundo do trabalho. O comércio é um subsetor tradicional na economia brasileira e absorve uma considerável parcela da mão de obra. Contudo, o ramo de varejo está sofrendo transformações estruturais, que abrem a possibilidade de convertê-lo em um importante produtor de novas identidades ligadas ao consumo. Portanto, este estudo objetiva analisar o serviço de venda no varejo de bens duráveis, principalmente, as seguintes questões: a atual configuração do trabalho e a sociedade de consumo, a identidade no trabalho, as interações no serviço de venda e a relação de gênero no varejo de bens duráveis. Esta pesquisa justifica-se, pois no Brasil encontramos poucos estudos sobre o trabalho no setor de serviços, isto é, em atividades que não estão diretamente relacionadas ao setor industrial - produtivo. Nesse sentido, este estudo busca contribuir com o debate sobre as transformações no mundo do trabalho, como também visibilizar a atividade de venda de bens duráveis sob o olhar sociológico. A metodologia, que orienta a pesquisa, é a triangulação, que contempla as técnicas de pesquisa quantitativas, assim como as qualitativas. Algumas informações foram retiradas de bancos de dados de instituições de pesquisas nacionais, além disso, foi realizado o trabalho de campo em duas empresas (Empresa A e Empresa B) que vendem produtos como: eletrodomésticos, eletroportáteis, móveis e aparelhos de áudio e vídeo, utilizando as técnicas de observação sistemática e de entrevista semiestruturada. Abstract:

O trabalho trata da difusão das inovações, explorando conceitos já discutidos pela literatura pertinente. A revisão dessa literatura foi feita tanto nos modelos qualitativos quanto nos quantitativos, o que permitiu verificar que o tema é bastante amplo e de grande importância para a sociedade e as empresas. Diferentes áreas como Sociologia, Antropologia, Marketing, Economia, Administração e Engenharia de Produção; foram analisadas para identificar como o fenômeno da difusão é estudado. A inovação é um tema presente em todas as corporações modernas, seja pela pressão mercadológica ou tecnológica, portanto, é considerada fundamental para o sucesso de uma organização. Assim, o trabalho explorou como as empresas tratam sua estratégia de inovar, quando e se incorporam conceitos sobre difusão das inovações na sociedade, de forma a aumentar as chances de sucesso de um novo produto. Foi estudado o comportamento da difusão dos seguintes bens duráveis nos domicílios brasileiros: televisores, rádios, geladeiras, freezer e filtros de água; e também a existência de canalização interna de água. Para suportar esse estudo, foram consultadas as diversas pesquisas realizadas periodicamente pelo IBGE, como Censos Decenais, PNADs, POF, seja na forma impressa ou em base eletrônica de dados, como na análise de microdados (resultados brutos das entrevistas), os quais foram processados com o auxílio de software estatístico SPSS. Foram identificadas as curvas de difusão dos itens citados, na seguinte seqüência: total do Brasil, segmentado em área urbana e rural e segmentando a população em cinco diferentes classes de renda. Em seguida os resultados foram submetidos à análise estatística de freqüência, de eventuais correlações entre os grupos de inovações, nas classes de renda e entre classes de renda, assim como a adesão de algumas das curvas de difusão em relação às propostas dos modelos teóricos. Os resultados permitem assumir que a classe de renda mais alta desempenha um importante papel no processo de difusão das inovações, podendo seu comportamento servir de indicador para o processo que ocorrerá nas outras camadas de renda. Complementarmente, e para suportar algumas das afirmações feitas ao longo do trabalho também foram realizadas pesquisas de preços de diferentes eletrodomésticos desde 1960, em seus valores históricos, corrigidos pelo índice IPC-FIPE SP e pela quantidade de salários mínimos vigentes na época. O trabalho resultou na proposta de dois modelos: um representando o papel da classe de renda mais alta em relação ao processo de difusão das inovações e um segundo, com base no primeiro, representando como incorporar o processo de difusão das inovações na estratégia das empresas. Como conclusão final é possível afirmar que os resultados devem auxiliar as empresas na administração de uma inovação, permitindo monitorar as tendências que deverão se projetar no restante do ciclo de vida do produto. / The thesis is dealing with diffusion of innovations, exploring the subjects in many of their studies. The scope of this literature review has included both qualitative and quantitative models, allowing the perception of the enormous efforts already done in such area, as well as their importance. The research has included different areas, as Sociology, Anthropology, Marketing, Economy, Administration, Production Engineering, checking how they take care about this theme. Modern corporations assume innovation discussions as a result of nowadays technology and market pressure, assuming their impact for successful organizations. So, the work explores how companies deal with their innovation strategy, when and if diffusion of innovation concepts is considered in order to increase their new product success. The study checked the following durable goods diffusion response in Brazilian houses: TV sets, radios, refrigerators, freezers and water filters, complemented by how home water canalization diffusion happened. Researches previously made by IBGE - Statistic and Geography Brazilian Institute - as decennial census, PNADs, POF supported the work, in their printed or electronic forms, even in the original research data. SPSS was used to support data treatment. Diffusion curves of the above mentioned items were researched, in the following patterns: Brazil, split in rural and urban areas, and divided into five different incoming revenues. Frequencies and correlations among innovation groups, incoming revenues results were analyzed, as well as the adherences against the theorized distributions. The results afford to assume that richest people have an important point in innovation diffusion processes, and their behavior can be used as an indicator to the other incoming revenues categories. To support some thesis conclusions, home appliances prices were researched since 1960, in historical values, updated by IPC-FIPE - SP index and by minimum wage quantities at the time the price were published. The work has proposed two models: the first modeling the top wage incoming behavior in the diffusion of innovation process and the second model, supported by the first, representing how companies\' strategy should care about innovation diffusion. As a final conclusion it is possible to say the results should help organizations in the new product administration responses, by monitoring the tendencies and projecting them in the future product life cycle.

Planned obsolescence is the term used to describe incentives of companies to make durable goods faster obsolete. The aim of the study is to make a big picture and real situation about planned obsolescence practising and consumer disposal behaviour. First part addresses the theoretical background and provides comprehensive overview through different aspects of the good's durability issue and planned obsolescence characteristics and influences. Second part in further reference to the information provided in theoretical part examines the situation of specific durable products - laptops. From survey's results on consumer attitudes towards durability of laptops and real case study on Apple Inc. and its reliance to planned obsolescence, recommendations to the more sustainable consumption of consumer electronics are presented.

O trabalho trata da difusão das inovações, explorando conceitos já discutidos pela literatura pertinente. A revisão dessa literatura foi feita tanto nos modelos qualitativos quanto nos quantitativos, o que permitiu verificar que o tema é bastante amplo e de grande importância para a sociedade e as empresas. Diferentes áreas como Sociologia, Antropologia, Marketing, Economia, Administração e Engenharia de Produção; foram analisadas para identificar como o fenômeno da difusão é estudado. A inovação é um tema presente em todas as corporações modernas, seja pela pressão mercadológica ou tecnológica, portanto, é considerada fundamental para o sucesso de uma organização. Assim, o trabalho explorou como as empresas tratam sua estratégia de inovar, quando e se incorporam conceitos sobre difusão das inovações na sociedade, de forma a aumentar as chances de sucesso de um novo produto. Foi estudado o comportamento da difusão dos seguintes bens duráveis nos domicílios brasileiros: televisores, rádios, geladeiras, freezer e filtros de água; e também a existência de canalização interna de água. Para suportar esse estudo, foram consultadas as diversas pesquisas realizadas periodicamente pelo IBGE, como Censos Decenais, PNADs, POF, seja na forma impressa ou em base eletrônica de dados, como na análise de microdados (resultados brutos das entrevistas), os quais foram processados com o auxílio de software estatístico SPSS. Foram identificadas as curvas de difusão dos itens citados, na seguinte seqüência: total do Brasil, segmentado em área urbana e rural e segmentando a população em cinco diferentes classes de renda. Em seguida os resultados foram submetidos à análise estatística de freqüência, de eventuais correlações entre os grupos de inovações, nas classes de renda e entre classes de renda, assim como a adesão de algumas das curvas de difusão em relação às propostas dos modelos teóricos. Os resultados permitem assumir que a classe de renda mais alta desempenha um importante papel no processo de difusão das inovações, podendo seu comportamento servir de indicador para o processo que ocorrerá nas outras camadas de renda. Complementarmente, e para suportar algumas das afirmações feitas ao longo do trabalho também foram realizadas pesquisas de preços de diferentes eletrodomésticos desde 1960, em seus valores históricos, corrigidos pelo índice IPC-FIPE SP e pela quantidade de salários mínimos vigentes na época. O trabalho resultou na proposta de dois modelos: um representando o papel da classe de renda mais alta em relação ao processo de difusão das inovações e um segundo, com base no primeiro, representando como incorporar o processo de difusão das inovações na estratégia das empresas. Como conclusão final é possível afirmar que os resultados devem auxiliar as empresas na administração de uma inovação, permitindo monitorar as tendências que deverão se projetar no restante do ciclo de vida do produto. / The thesis is dealing with diffusion of innovations, exploring the subjects in many of their studies. The scope of this literature review has included both qualitative and quantitative models, allowing the perception of the enormous efforts already done in such area, as well as their importance. The research has included different areas, as Sociology, Anthropology, Marketing, Economy, Administration, Production Engineering, checking how they take care about this theme. Modern corporations assume innovation discussions as a result of nowadays technology and market pressure, assuming their impact for successful organizations. So, the work explores how companies deal with their innovation strategy, when and if diffusion of innovation concepts is considered in order to increase their new product success. The study checked the following durable goods diffusion response in Brazilian houses: TV sets, radios, refrigerators, freezers and water filters, complemented by how home water canalization diffusion happened. Researches previously made by IBGE - Statistic and Geography Brazilian Institute - as decennial census, PNADs, POF supported the work, in their printed or electronic forms, even in the original research data. SPSS was used to support data treatment. Diffusion curves of the above mentioned items were researched, in the following patterns: Brazil, split in rural and urban areas, and divided into five different incoming revenues. Frequencies and correlations among innovation groups, incoming revenues results were analyzed, as well as the adherences against the theorized distributions. The results afford to assume that richest people have an important point in innovation diffusion processes, and their behavior can be used as an indicator to the other incoming revenues categories. To support some thesis conclusions, home appliances prices were researched since 1960, in historical values, updated by IPC-FIPE - SP index and by minimum wage quantities at the time the price were published. The work has proposed two models: the first modeling the top wage incoming behavior in the diffusion of innovation process and the second model, supported by the first, representing how companies\' strategy should care about innovation diffusion. As a final conclusion it is possible to say the results should help organizations in the new product administration responses, by monitoring the tendencies and projecting them in the future product life cycle.

Background Due to increased environmental issues around the world, people are getting more and more aware of the effects of their consumption and their influence on the environment. Companies have therefore started to provide green products to the market to satisfy customer demand. However, there is a lack of knowledge in the literature when it comes to what customers really value when it comes to green products. Mainly green durable goods, as well as their determinants and what affects their green purchase intentions.   Purpose The purpose of the study is therefore, to analyze what green determinants affect purchase intention for floors as an example of a green durable good. A related purpose is to investigate how green production attitude and consumption attitude impact floor purchase intention. The results of the investigation could help the floor manufacturers better understand what is valued by the consumer and thus be able to invest right resources for right action to meet customer needs.   Method This study was a survey study using primary quantitative analysis and data collecting. The questionnaires were conducted with 97 participants around Sweden using social media and an online questionnaire. The data were tested through different reliability and validity tests and other kinds of statistical tests to analyze the proposed theoretical research model with help of SPSS and AMOS.   Results Environmental production attitude (determinants of green production) significantly affects the purchase intention for durable goods. Environmental consumption attitude could not be tested due to failing in the reliability and validity tests, and therefore no confirmation about the effect of these determinants could be drawn.   Conclusion For consumers in general, the perceived greenness of a floor lays in the determinants of the production which this study can prove.   Delimitations This study has only focused on the Swedish demand-side when it comes to purchase intention for green durable goods and the effects of this and not the supply-side. Furthermore, the purchase intention is limited to today´s circumstances and the changes over time have not been under consideration. The product choice has been durable goods, with particular attention to floors. / Bakgrund På grund av ökade miljöfrågor runt om i världen blir människor mer och mer medvetna om effekterna av konsumtionen och deras påverkan på miljön. Företagen har därför börjat tillhandahålla miljövänliga produkter på marknaden för att tillgodose kundernas efterfrågan. Det finns dock brist på kunskap i litteraturen när det kommer till vad kunder verkligen värdesätter när det gäller gröna produkter, speciellt produkter med lång livslängd. Liksom deras bestämmande faktorer och vad som verkligen påverkar deras gröna köpintentioner.   Syfte Syftet med studien är därför att analysera vilka miljövänliga påverkningsfaktorer som finns för golv, som är ett exempel på en produkt med lång livslängd. Ett relaterat syfte är att undersöka hur den miljövänliga produktionsattityden och konsumtionsattityden påverkar köpintentionen för golv. Resultaten av undersökningen är till för att golvtillverkaren bättre ska förstå vad som värderas utifrån konsumenten och därmed kunna investera rätt resurser på rätt aktivitet för att på så sätt möta konsumenternas behov.   Metod Denna studie var en undersökningsstudie som främst nyttjat primär kvantitativ analys och datainsamling. Frågeformulären genomfördes med 97 deltagare runt om i Sverige med hjälp av sociala medier och ett online frågeformulär. Den insamlade datan testades genom olika pålitlighets- och validitetstester samt andra typer av statistiska tester för att analysera den teoretiska forskningmodellen med hjälp av SPSS och AMOS.   Resultat Attityd för miljövänlig produktion (bestämmande faktorer för grön produktion) har signifikant effekt på köpintensiteten för produkter med lång livslängd. Attityd för miljövänlig konsumtion kunde inte testas på grund av brist på pålitlighet och validitet och därför kunde ingen slutsats/analys av effekten på dessa faktorer dras.   Slutsatser För konsumenter i allmänhet ligger den uppfattade miljövänligheten hos en miljövänlig produkt med lång livslängd i produktionsattributen, vilket denna studie kan bevisa.   Avgränsningar Denna studie har endast fokuserat på den svenska efterfrågesidan när det gäller köpintentioner för produkter med lång livslängd och effekterna av detta och inte utbudssidan. Vidare är köpintentionen begränsad till dagens omständigheter och förändringarna över tiden har inte varit föremål för överväganden. Produktvalet har varit varaktiga varor, med särskild hänsyn till golv.

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Made available in DSpace on 2010-04-20T20:08:22Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 Previous issue date: 1997-03-24T00:00:00Z / It discusses a model to measure durable goods market by cities. The modeling process assumes that the function must be established by analyzing the stage of the product i n the diffusion process, each city i s a unit represented by secondary data, and the secondary data are determined by knowing the characteristics of the consumer behavior o f the product In the model the residuals are presented as strategic marketing tools. I t is exposed an application to air conditioning market. / Trata de uma proposta de mensuração de mercado de bens duráveis em nível municipal. O processo de modelagem assume que: a função deve ser determinada a partir do análise do estágio do produto em seu processo de difusão n o mercado, cada município é uma unidade representada p o r variáveis obtidas através d e dados secundários e os dados secundários a serem coletados podem determinados através d o conhecimento d o comportamento de compra do produto. No modelo, os resíduos sã o tratados como ferramenta estratégica mercadológica. É apresentada uma aplicação do modelo para condicionadores de ar

Les fluctuations économiques représentent les mouvements de la croissance économique. Celle-ci peut connaître des phases d'accélération (expansion) ou de ralentissement (récession), voire même de dépression si la baisse de production est persistente. Les fluctuations économiques sont liées aux écarts entre croissance effective et croissance potentielle. Elles peuvent s'expliquer par des chocs d'offre et demande, ainsi que par le cycle du crédit. Dans le premier cas, les conditions de la production se trouvent modifiées. C'est le cas lorsque le prix des facteurs de production (salaires, prix des matières premières) ou que des facteurs externes influençant le prix des produits (taux de change) évolue. Ainsi, une hausse du prix des facteurs de production provoque un choc négatif et ralentit la croissance. Ce ralentissement peut être également dû à un choc de demande négatif provoqué par une hausse du prix des produits causée par une appréciation de la devise, engendrant une diminution des exportations. Le deuxième cas concerne les variables financières et les actifs financiers. Ainsi, en période d'expansion, les agents économiques s'endettent et ont des comportements spéculatifs en réaction à des chocs d'offre ou demande anticipés. La valeur des titres et actifs financiers augmente, provoquant une bulle qui finit par éclater et provoquer un effondrement de la valeur des biens. Dès lors, l'activité économique ne peut plus être financée. C'est ce qui génère une récession, parfois profonde, comme lors de la récente crise financière. Cette thèse inclut trois essais sur les fluctuations macroéconomiques et les cycles économiques, plus précisément sur les thèmes décrit ci-dessus. Le premier chapitre s'intéresse aux anticipations sur la politique monétaire et sur la réaction des agents écononomiques face à ces anticipations. Une emphase particulière est mise sur la consommation de biens durables et l'endettement relié à ce type de consommation. Le deuxième chapitre aborde la question de l'influence des variations du taux de change sur la demande de travail dans le secteur manufacturier canadien. Finalement, le troisième chapitre s'intéresse aux retombées économiques, parfois négatives, du marché immobilier sur la consommation des ménages et aux répercussions sur le prix des actifs immobiliers et sur l'endettement des ménages d'anticipations infondées sur la demande dans le marché immobilier. Le premier chapitre, intitulé ``Monetary Policy News Shocks and Durable Consumption'', fournit une étude sur le lien entre les dépenses en biens durables et les chocs monétaires anticipés. Nous proposons et mettons en oeuvre une nouvelle approche pour identifier les chocs anticipés (nouvelles) de politique monétaire, en les identifiant de manière récursive à partir des résidus d’une règle de Taylor estimée à l’aide de données de sondage multi-horizon. Nous utilisons ensuite les chocs anticipés inférer dans un modèle autorégressif vectoriel structurel (ARVS). L’anticipation d’une politique de resserrement monétaire mène à une augmentation de la production, de la consommation de biens non-durables et durables, ainsi qu’à une augmentation du prix réel des biens durables. Bien que les chocs anticipés expliquent une part significative des variations de la production et de la consommation, leur impact est moindre que celui des chocs non-anticipés sur les fluctuations économiques. Finalement, nous menons une analyse théorique avec un modèle d’équilibre général dynamique stochastique (EGDS) avec biens durables et rigidités nominales. Les résultats indiquent que le modèle avec les prix des biens durables rigides peut reproduire la corrélation positive entre les fonctions de réponse de la consommation de biens non-durables et durables à un choc anticipé de politique monétaire trouvées à l’aide du ARVS. Le second chapitre s'intitule ``Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Labour Market Adjustments in Canadian Manufacturing Industries''. Dans ce chapitre, nous évaluons la sensibilité de l'emploi et des heures travaillées dans les industries manufacturières canadiennes aux variations du taux de change. L’analyse est basée sur un modèle dynamique de demande de travail et utilise l’approche en deux étapes pour l'estimation des relations de cointégration en données de panel. Nos données sont prises d’un panel de 20 industries manufacturières, provenant de la base de données KLEMS de Statistique Canada, et couvrent une longue période qui inclut deux cycles complets d’appréciation-dépréciation de la valeur du dollar canadien. Les effets nets de l'appréciation du dollar canadien se sont avérés statistiquement et économiquement significatifs et négatifs pour l'emploi et les heures travaillées, et ses effets sont plus prononcés dans les industries davantage exposées au commerce international. Finalement, le dernier chapitre s'intitule ``Housing Market Dynamics and Macroprudential Policy'', dans lequel nous étudions la relation statistique suggérant un lien collatéral entre le marché immobilier and le reste de l'économique et si ce lien est davantage entraîné par des facteurs de demandes ou d'offres. Nous suivons également la littérature sur les chocs anticipés et examinons un cyle d'expansion-récession peut survenir de façon endogène la suite d'anticipations non-réalisées d'une hausse de la demande de logements. À cette fin, nous construisons un modèle néo-Keynésien au sein duquel le pouvoir d’emprunt du partie des consommateurs est limité par la valeur de leur patrimoine immobilier. Nous estimons le modèle en utilisant une méthode Bayésienne avec des données canadiennes. Nous évaluons la capacité du modèle à capter les caractéristiques principales de la consommation et du prix des maisons. Finalement, nous effectuons une analyse pour déterminer dans quelle mesure l'introduction d'un ratio prêt-à-la-valeur contracyclique peut réduire l'endettement des ménages et les fluctuations du prix des maisons comparativement à une règle de politique monétaire répondant à l'inflation du prix des maisons. Nous trouvons une relation statistique suggérant un important lien collatéral entre le marché immobilier et le reste de l'économie, et ce lien s'explique principalement par des facteurs de demande. Nous constatons également que l'introduction de chocs anticipés peut générer un cycle d'expansion-récession du marché immobilier, la récession faisant suite aux attentes non-réalisées par rapport à la demande de logements. Enfin, notre étude suggère également qu'un ratio contracyclique de prêt-à-la-valeur est une politique utile pour réduire les retombées du marché du logement sur la consommation par l'intermédiaire de la valeur garantie. / Economic fluctuations represent the movements of economic growth. It may experience acceleration phases (expansion) or deceleration (recession), and even depression if the decline in production is persistent. Economic fluctuations are related to differences between actual growth and potential growth. They can be explained by supply and demand shocks, as well as by the credit cycle. In the first case, the conditions of production are modified. This is the case when the price of production factors (wages, raw materials prices) or external factors influencing the price of products (exchange rate) evolve. Thus, an increase in the price of production factors causes a negative shock and slows growth. This slowdown may also be due to a negative demand shock caused by an increase in product prices caused by a currency appreciation, causing a decrease in exports. The second case concerns the financial variables and financial assets. Thus, in a period of expansion, economic agents borrow more and have speculative behaviors in response to anticipated supply and demand shocks. The value of securities and financial assets increases, causing a bubble that eventually burst, causing a collapse in the value of assets. Therefore, economic activity cannot be funded. This is what generates a recession, sometimes profound, as in the recent financial crisis. This thesis includes three essays on macroeconomic fluctuations and economic cycles, specifically on the topics described above. The first chapter deals with expectations about monetary policy and on the reaction of econonomic agents on these expectations. A particular emphasis is placed on the consumption of durable goods and indebtedness related to this type of consumption. The second chapter discusses the influence of fluctuations in foreign exchange rates on labour demand in the Canadian manufacturing sector. Finally, the third chapter focuses on spillover, sometimes negative, of the real estate market on household consumption and the impact on property prices and household debt of demand expectations in the property market. The first chapter, entitled ``Monetary Policy News Shocks and Durable Consumption'', provides insight on the link between durable goods spending and monetary policy news shocks. We propose and implement a new approach to identifying news shocks about future monetary policy. News shocks are identified recursively from the residuals of a monetary policy rule estimated using U.S. multi-horizon survey data. We then use those inferred news shocks in a structural VAR (SVAR). An expected monetary policy tightening leads to an increase in output, non-durable and durable goods consumption, and real price of durable goods. Although news shocks account for a significant fraction of output and consumption fluctuations, they contribute less than surprise shocks to economic fluctuations. We then carry out theoretical analysis using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with durable goods and nominal rigidities. Results indicate that a model with sticky durable goods price can reproduce the positive correlation between the response functions of durable and non-durable goods consumption to policy news shocks that was found from the SVAR. The second chapter is entitled ``Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Labour Market Adjustments in Canadian Manufacturing Industries''. In this chapter, we estimate the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on hours worked and jobs in Canadian manufacturing industries. The analysis is based on a dynamic model of labour demand and the econometric strategy employs a panel two-step approach for cointegrating regressions. Our data is drawn from a panel of 20 manufacturing industries, from Statistics Canada's KLEMS database, and covers a long sample period that includes two full exchange rate appreciation and depreciation cycles. We find that exchange rate fluctuations have economically and statistically significant effects on the labour decisions of Canadian manufacturing employers, and that these effects are stronger for trade-oriented industries. Finally, the last chapter, entitled ``Housing Market Dynamics and Macroprudential Policy'', studies the statistical evidence suggesting a collateral link between the housing market and the rest of the economy and if the link is more demand- or supply-driven. We also followed the \textit{news shocks} literature and look if a housing-market boom-bust can arise endogenously following unrealized expectations of a rise in housing demand. To this end, we construct a New Keynesian model in which a fraction of households borrow against the value of their houses. We estimate the model with Canadian data using Bayesian methods. We assessed the model's ability to capture key features of consumption and house price data. Finally, we performed an analysis to determine how well the introduction of a countercyclical loan-to-value (LTV) ratio can reduced household indebtedness and housing price fluctuations compare to a monetary policy rule augmented with house price inflation. We find statistical evidence suggesting an important collateral link between the housing market and the rest of the economy, and this link is mainly driven by demand factors. We also find that the introduction of news shocks can generate a housing market boom-bust cycle, the bust following unrealized expectations on housing demand. Finally, our study also suggests that a countercyclical loan-to-value ratio is a useful policy to reduce the spillover from housing market to consumption via the collateral value.