Essay I: In January, 2005, the EU launched the first international emissions trading system (EU ETS), aimed at reducing carbon emissions in a cost-effective way by means of a market-based instrument. In this paper, we use the treatment/control, before/after design of the natural experiment approach to investigate the treatment effect of the EU ETS on the profitability of a sample of Swedish energy firms in 2005 and 2006. We also investigate whether under-cap and over-cap firms respond differently to the EU ETS. The estimation results in general suggest no significant impact in 2005 and a negative significant impact in 2006. The sub-sample analysis suggests that profitability of under-cap and over-cap firms were affected differently by the EU ETS in 2005, but not in 2006. Essay II: The paper empirically explores the possible causes behind electricity price jumps in the Nordic electricity market, Nord Pool. A time-series model (a mixed GARCH-EARJI jump model) capturing the common statistical features of electricity prices is used to identify price jumps. By the model, a categorical variable is defined distinguishing no, positive and negative jumps. The causes for the jumps are then explored through the use of ordered probit models in a second stage. The empirical results indicate that the structure of the market plays an important role in whether shocks in the demand and supply for electricity translate into price jumps. Essay III: Scientific evidence indicates that human development faces multiple and interacting regime-switching environmental thresholds such as climate change, ocean acidification and biodiversity loss. And crossing one or more such thresholds would trigger rapid and large changes in our life-support system with widespread consequences. This paper attempts to study the effects of such thresholds on human well-being in a growth theoretical framework. We derive the accounting prices of pollution stocks such as the concentration of greenhouse gases for the risk of triggering catastrophic events, which are needed for conducting a dynamic cost-benefit analysis. We first analyze a simple model with a single threshold and then extend it to a planar system with correlated double thresholds with a joint probability distribution. the results can be applied for analyzing global climate change and ocean acidification risks, which are highlighted in a Nature article by Rockström et al. (2009). Essay IV: Lump-sum transfers as a means of tackling climate change are mainly perceived as a theoretical construct to achieve the first best Pareto optimum. The previous literature on lump-sum transfers normally focuses on the two polar cases: the absence of lump-sum transfers and perfect or unconstrained lump-sum transfers, leaving the middle way aside. In this paper, we attempt to explore the unmarked part by developing a model where transfer costs are explicitly taken into account. We show that whether the Pareto optimum characterized by the equalization of marginal abatement costs is attainable depends on the formation of transfer costs. When the marginal transfer cost is zero, the separability of equity and efficiency under perfect lump-sum transfers is kept. However, when the marginal transfer cost is positive, the optimum with equalization of marginal abatement costs is neither attainable, nor desirable. We also simulate a policy experiment in China to review the optimal abatement and transfer patterns between China's provinces within a framework of imperfect lump-sum transfers. The highlighted welfare gains is supportive of considering lump-sum transfers as a national climate change policy.

Submitted by Alida Walvis (alida.walvis@gmail.com) on 2014-08-27T17:11:00Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Alida Walvis - Dissertação - Versão Final.pdf: 1045978 bytes, checksum: 8472ab09a23c6051cd977235b4a6528c (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Gisele Gammaro (gisele.gammaro@fgv.br) on 2014-08-29T17:26:38Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Alida Walvis - Dissertação - Versão Final.pdf: 1045978 bytes, checksum: 8472ab09a23c6051cd977235b4a6528c (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Gisele Gammaro (gisele.gammaro@fgv.br) on 2014-08-29T17:43:58Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Alida Walvis - Dissertação - Versão Final.pdf: 1045978 bytes, checksum: 8472ab09a23c6051cd977235b4a6528c (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2014-09-23T13:57:49Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Alida Walvis - Dissertação - Versão Final.pdf: 1045978 bytes, checksum: 8472ab09a23c6051cd977235b4a6528c (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014-05-30 / There are many challenges inherent to the functioning of a sector as complex as the electricity sector, in which the results of a given measure may take years until it reaches maturity and only then its impact on the institutional framework gets to be fully known by the policy makers. Taking the electricity sector as a backdrop, this dissertation presents the basis for what would be an ideal reform, usually referred to in the literature as 'textbook reform', followed by a presentation of the regulatory evolution of the Brazilian electricity sector, from 1930 until early 2014, with special emphasis on the reforms that took place during the period of 1995 to 2004. The bibliographic research presented in this dissertation is divided into four chapters and analyzes the present situation of the liberalization of the Brazilian electricity market and suggests feasible improvements in order to develop this market in Brazil. / São muitos os desafios intrínsecos ao bom funcionamento de um setor tão complexo quanto o elétrico, em que os efeitos de determinada medida podem levar anos até a maturidade, e só então ser totalmente conhecidos os seus impactos sobre a estrutura setorial como um todo, dificilmente antecipados pelos formuladores das reformas implementadas. Tomando o setor elétrico como pano de fundo, o escopo desta dissertação é apresentar as bases para o que seria uma reforma ideal, denominada na literatura 'reforma de livro texto' e, em seguida, discorrer sobre a evolução regulatória do setor elétrico brasileiro de 1930 até o início de 2014, detalhando, especialmente, as características das reformas ocorridas em 1995 e 2004. Com esse esforço de pesquisa, que adota a técnica bibliográfica e se estrutura em quatro capítulos, pretende-se analisar a situação atual do mercado livre de energia elétrica brasileiro e propor melhorias passíveis de implementação com o objetivo de desenvolver este mercado no Brasil.

Throughout the decade of 1990, Peru went through a process of liberalization and privatization, a process that was reflected on the mechanism of provision of utilities in the country.In the present article, the author studies the previously mentioned process focusing in the power sector, analyzing it from the Law on Electric Concessions reforms and focusing on its commercial function. He also offers a critical and descriptive overview, including the advantages and disadvantages of the Peruvian model. / A lo largo de la década de 1990, el Perú atravesó un proceso de liberalización y privatización, fenómeno que se reflejó en el mecanismo de prestación de servicios públicos en el país.En el presente artículo, el autor estudia dicho proceso centrándose en el sector eléctrico, analizándolo básicamente a partir de las reformas de la Ley de Concesiones Eléctricas y concentrándose en su función comercial. Asimismo, ofrece un panorama crítico y descriptivo, incluyendo las ventajas y desventajas del modelo peruano.

O conjunto de leis, decretos e instrumentos regulatórios que regem o setor elétrico a partir da virada deste século é bastante complexo. Em paralelo, o desafio constante da expansão da oferta de energia elétrica para o atendimento da demanda sempre crescente de um país em desenvolvimento como o Brasil requer análise profunda de seu arranjo institucional. Adicionalmente, a expansão da oferta também depende do desenvolvimento de ferramentas para melhorar a gestão dos ativos de geração de energia elétrica que irão atender esse desafio. Neste contexto, o presente trabalho se propõe a fazer um mapeamento dos principais componentes de incerteza e risco associados à geração de energia elétrica no Brasil sob o ponto de vista regulatório. Analisa, assim, o modelo em vigor desde a promulgação da Lei 10.848 de 2004, o qual promove a competição entre fontes de energia de natureza complementar, mas com características distintas. No percurso deste estudo são discutidos instrumentos para avaliar o arranjo das unidades de geração em um portfolio de ativos de fontes diversas, bem como seus principais componentes e, em que medida, a regulação em vigor favorece a sinergia entre as diferentes fontes de geração elétrica. Na medida em que este arranjo setorial se baseia na contratação de energia elétrica de longo prazo, os resultados deste trabalho indicam que a sinergia desejada entre as fontes de geração de energia elétrica fica restrita apenas ao mercado de curto prazo, extremamente volátil, conquanto poderia ser aproveitada no desenho de um portfolio mais eficiente, tanto para o país quanto para os investidores em geração. / The set of laws, decrees and regulatory instruments leading the electricity sector in the new century is quite complex in Brazil. In parallel, the constant challenge of expanding the supply of energy to meet the ever increasing demand of a developing country requires a deep analysis of this institutional configuration designed to simplify the understanding of the sector major issues and improve the management assets to generate electricity that will meet this challenge. This work intends to map the key uncertainty and risk components associated with power generation in Brazil under the regulatory perspective. To do so, it analyzes the model in place since the enactment of Law #10,848 in 2004 which promotes the competition among energy sources with different characteristics. In the course of the text here presented it is conducted a discussion about the tools designed to evaluate the selection of power plants in a portfolio of assets from different energy sources, analyzing its main components, and the synergy level among these different sources. Additionally, it is also addressed the regulatory environment and its implications for the power industry in Brazil. Through this study it was found that the extent to which this regulatory arrangement is based on long term power purchase agreements, the desired synergy between sources of power generation is restricted to the highly volatile spot market, although it could be used in designing a more efficient portfolio, both for the country and for investors in generation.

Une crise de grande ampleur laisse supposer d’importants changements en politiques publiques.Toutefois, les multiples accidents nucléaires ont souligné l’effet d’inertie du système de l’électricité en France comme au Japon et du maintien des acteurs dominants au sein de ce système. Le particulier focusing event que constitue Fukushima apparaît toutefois comme un vecteur important de changement dans un système fortement soumis à la dépendance au sentier et à un bouleversement des rapports de force,dépassant par là même les enjeux énergétiques. Au delà des questions de gouvernance de l’énergie, ce travail vise en outre à souligner les importantes transformations qui touchent le marché de l’électricité sous les effets d’une libéralisation toujours plus poussée. Dès lors cette analyse s’attache à fois à l’étude de la gouvernance de la politique de l’énergie mais également aux conséquences d’une ouverture plus progressive du marché sur les acteurs concernés dans une perspective principalement nationale mais aussi européenne. / While a widespread crisis would cause significant changes in public policies, nuclear accidents underline an inertia effect in the energy system in France and Japan. These cases lay out the maintenance of the position of dominant stakeholders within the system. Nevertheless, the particular focusing event of Fukushima appears to be an important driver of change in a system with strong path dependency, and disrupts the power balance of stakeholders. The change then goes beyond energy issues. In addition to the governance stakes, this thesis examines the significant alterations of the electricity market under the liberalisation dynamics . It also analyses the governance of energy policy and the consequences of the electricity market from domestic and European perspectives.

L'énergie éolienne jouant un rôle de plus en plus important dans le réseau électrique, elle ne peut plus être considérée comme une source d'énergie marginale. Par conséquent, l'impact sur le réseau de l'intermittence, inhérente à ce type d'énergie devient non négligeable. L'utilisation du stockage est une des principales solutions à ce problème d'intégration. Ce travail porte sur l'optimisation du système éolien/stockage en considérant la dynamique de l'éolien, la capacité de stockage et l'interaction avec le réseau. L'objectif consiste à répondre aux exigences du réseau en limitant les fluctuations, à fournir des services-systèmes tout en mettant en avant la rentabilité économique du système. La méthode de gestion proposée s'appuie sur deux niveaux de pilotage : l'anticipation et la gestion réactive. La première phase consiste à utiliser des informations de prévisions (météorologiques, contraintes du réseau, conditions du marché électrique...) afin de définir par avance le programme de fonctionnement optimal du système de stockage. La deuxième phase étudie le fonctionnement en temps réel, où le système doit faire face aux perturbations et respecter les règles du mécanisme d'ajustement. Le problème est complexe avec de nombreuses variables de contrôle discrètes et continues. La Programmation Mixte Linéaire (PML) est utilisée pour résoudre efficacement le problème. La stratégie de fonctionnement optimale proposée sera validée sur un simulateur hors temps réel et un simulateur en temps réel. / Wind energy playing an increasingly important role in the electrical network and it will no longer be considered as a marginal. Therefore, the impact on the electrical grid of its inherent intermittency becomes non-negligible. The use of storage means is one of key points in the integration problem. In this work, the optimization of the wind/storage system is addressed by considering the dynamics of the wind power, the storage capacity and the grid constraints. The main objective is to meet the grids requirements in limiting the fluctuations, providing possible ancillary services and highlighting the economic profitability of system. The proposed method relies on a two levels control approach: anticipation and reactive management. The first one consists in using forecast information (weather, grid constraints, electrical market conditions …) to define in advance the optimal operation schedule for the storage system. In the second one, on real time operation, the system has to deal with possible disturbances and take the right adjustment control with the actual capacity. The problem is complex with numerous discrete control variables and continuous ones. A mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) is used to efficiently solve the problem. The proposed optimal operation strategy will be validated with on an offline simulation (simulink/Matlab) and a real time simulator.

Orientador: José Antônio Siqueira Dias / Tese (doutorado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Faculdade de Engenharia Elétrica e de Computação / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-26T20:20:29Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Tavares_MauricioLopes_D.pdf: 1729620 bytes, checksum: bd266f4180967d2a0b7dc91a0e56b872 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014 / Resumo: Bens econômicos são classificados como rivais, não-rivais e anti-rivais. É proposta uma nova categoria: bens de rivalidade extrema (RE) para adequada classificação da eletricidade. A RE se manifesta quando o consumidor marginal demanda do sistema a última unidade de eletricidade disponível na rede o que implica no completo desligamento do sistema, mesmo que essa unidade não disponível seja infinitesimal em relação à capacidade plena, o que é uma característica única. Governos coordenam investimentos em capacidade excedente para lidar com esse fenômeno, porém essa tal capacidade extra prejudica a concorrência, a inovação e investimentos em eficiência energética e fontes alternativas. O Gerenciamento da Rivalidade Extrema (GRE) propõe tratar de maneira diferente o fenômeno da RE através de capacidades de rede inteligente para promover de maneira individualizada e organizada a desconexão de consumidores quando ocorrem situações críticas de suprimento, seguindo uma ordem que desconecta prioritariamente os consumidores menos sensíveis a interrupções. A política de Valor de Segurança do Suprimento (VSS) se baseia em declarações dos consumidores a respeito de quanto estão dispostos a pagar em eventos críticos para evitar serem desconectados. Essa política inicia desconexões individualizadas de consumidores que declararam VSS = 0 procedendo em ordem crescente de valores de VSS até que seja equilibrada a demanda e a oferta e assegurado o equilíbrio do sistema. Todos consumidores que forem preservados devem pagar o VSS declarado, cuja receita pode ser usada para remunerar consumidores que foram desconectados ou financiar investimentos em expansão de capacidade / Abstract: Economic goods are classified as rival, non-rival and anti-rivals goods. We propose a new category: extreme rivalry goods (ER) for proper classification of electricity. ER manifests itself when the marginal consumer demands the last unit of electricity available on the grid implying in a complete shutdown of the system, even though by an infinitesimal amount compared to the total capacity, which is a unique feature. Governments coordinate investments in overcapacity to deal with this with the downside of preventing competition, innovation and undermining investments in energy efficiency and alternative energy. Management of Extreme Rivalry (MER) uses a different approach to ER relying in smart grid features to promote individualized and ordered disconnection of consumers when there is a critical supply situation, following a queue that begins with consumers less sensitive to disconnections. A policy of "Value of Supply Maintenance" (VSM) is based on declarations from consumers about how much they are willing to pay during critical supply events to prevent being disconnected. The VSM method begins disconnecting consumers who informed VSM = 0 proceeding in order of increasing VSM values until the balance between generation and consumption is ensured to balance the system. All preserved consumers must pay the VSM / Doutorado / Eletrônica, Microeletrônica e Optoeletrônica / Doutor em Engenharia Elétrica

The dissertation target was to define the strategical concept of the company QUANTUM development. The company QUANTUM is the trader with the commodity of electricity operating the Czech Republic market. The theoretical part of the dissertation targets at the item of the company development and the process of the strategical management. There is the analytical methodology defined as well. The analytical part of the dissertation defines the practical implementation of the analytical concepts of the business environment of the company with the aim to define the impact factors influencing the company. The strategical concept of the business development of the company was defined and implemented due to the conclusion of the analysis with the aim to maintain the competitive position of the company in the Czech energy market. The definition of the strategy implementation reacts at the analysis of the defined threats and opportunities and the evaluation of the risks.

This diploma thesis deals with the creation of the development plan within the selected portfolio of services on the electricity market. The theoretical part focuses on a detailed description of the possibilities of company development and strategic management issues, especially on selected analyzes of general, market and internal environment. In the analytical part are identified and analyzed the key factors affecting the company affecting its operation in the electricity market, as well as the evaluation of the internal environment of the company. Based on the results of the analyzes, a proposal for the development of QUANTUM, a.s. to consolidate the electricity market position and steps to achieve the chosen strategy. The proposals also include a risk assesment and evaluation of the benefits of the proposed strategy.

Diese Dissertation untersucht Fragen, die sich mit dem Einfluss der Übertragungskapazitäten und der Erzeugung erneuerbarer Energien auf dem Strommarkt befassen. Die Arbeit besteht aus drei eigenständigen Aufsätze, die für die politische Debatte einen Beitrag leisten. Das erste Kapitel konzentriert sich auf ein Netzwerk mit strategischen Unternehmen, die die Stromflüsse zu ihrem Vorteil manipulieren können. Dieses Kapitel gehört zur Forschungsliteratur, die Strommärkte als Gleichgewichtsprobleme mit Gleichgewichtseinschränkungen darstellt. In diesem Rahmen vergleiche ich mehrere Strategien zur Stärkung des Wettbewerbs und zeige, dass der Netzausbau zwar den Wettbewerb ankurbeln kann, mit Umstrukturierungen aber größere Verbesserungen des Verbraucherüberschusses und des Wohlstands erzielt werden können. Das zweite Kapitel basiert auf einem ähnlichen Modell mit einem einfachen Zwei-Knoten-Netzwerk. Dieser Ansatz zeigt mögliche nachteilige Auswirkungen (höhere Preise, geringerer Gesamtverbrauch, geringerer Konsumentenrente) einer höheren Einspeisung erneuerbarer Energie in einem Netz, in dem eine Region mit hohem erneuerbaren Potenzial von einer Region mit hoher Last durch eine begrenzte Übertragungskapazität getrennt ist. Die Annahme ist, dass es in jeder Region einen strategischen Akteur gibt, der seine Marktmacht ausübt. Das dritte Kapitel befasst sich mit der Substitution zwischen Übertragungs- und Speicherkapazitäten - beides Instrumente zur Integration von erneuerbarer Energien. Eine Analyse mit einfachen Speicherheuristik zeigt den relativ bescheidenen Effekt des zeitlichen Ausgleichs. Im Gegensatz dazu birgt die Erweiterung des Übertragungsnetzes ein erhebliches Steigerungspotenzial für die Nutzung erneuerbarer Energiequellen, die Verringerung der Kürzungsraten und die Reduzierung der minimalen konventionellen Stromerzeugung. / This thesis investigates several questions related to the influence of transmission capacities and generation of renewable energy on the outcomes in the wholesale electricity markets. The thesis consists of three self-contained essays that contribute to the policy debate. The analysis of the first essay focuses on a network with strategic firms that can manipulate power flows to their advantage. Methodologically, this chapter belongs to the research literature that represents electricity markets as equilibrium problems with equilibrium constraints. In this framework I compare several policies of enhancing competition and demonstrate that although network expansion can stimulate competition, larger improvements in consumer surplus and welfare can be achieved with restructuring. The second essay is based on a similar model, but in a stylized two node network. This approach demonstrates potential adverse effects (higher prices, lower total consumption, lower consumer surplus) from higher renewable infeed in a network where a region with high renewable potential is separated from a region with high load by a limited transmission capacity. I adopt a worst-case assumption that in each region there is a strategic player exercising its market power. The third essay studies the substitution between transmission and storage expansion - two instruments for the integration of expanding renewable energy. Using a myopic storage heuristic I demonstrate the relatively modest effect of temporal balancing of renewable power. In contrast, transmission expansion has a significant potential in increasing renewable penetration, mitigating curtailment rates, and reducing the minimum conventional generation power at any hour. If Europe is to pursue the high targets of renewable power in electricity consumption, the only way to avoid the expansion of cross border lines is extremely high installed renewable capacities and energy capacities of storage.