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[pt] O efeito-manada é uma característica do comportamento do investidor nos mercados financeiros, particularmente no estresse do mercado. Na tese aplicaremos uma abordagem baseada na dispersão transversal de ações betas individuais, que nos permite extrair padrões de efeito-manada, usando duas metodologias dinâmicas para medir o fenômeno manada ao longo do tempo com um modelo de espaço de estados em três mercados diferentes. O primeiro estudo analisa o beta herding no mercado de ações brasileiro usando um modelo de estado-espaço, controlado por dois agrupamentos de empresas: as empresas listadas no índice de mercado e as listadas na bolsa como um todo. Os achados revelaram um efeito-manada elevado na bolsa brasileira, com apenas pequenas diferenças entre os clusters. Em relação às variáveis de controle, verificamos que os fatores dividend yield, volatilidade do mercado, SMB e WML foram significativos para ambos os grupos, indicando que o herding é significativo independente do comportamento dessas variáveis. O segundo estudo examina o beta herding no mercado de commodities, utilizando a metodologia desenvolvida por Hwang e Salmon (2004) e uma adaptação do beta padronizado por Hwang, Rubesam e Salmon (2018). Analisamos o comportamento de quinze commodities entre 2000 e 2018 e, em seguida, extraímos as commodities alimentares para testar seu efeito separadamente. Os resultados sugerem que os betas podem se desviar dos fundamentos em ambas as amostras. No entanto, os betas de commodities alimentares tendem a reverter mais rapidamente para a estabilidade entre demanda e oferta, o que resulta em um equilíbrio risco-retorno de longo prazo. O terceiro estudo aplica a metodologia de Hwang e Salmon (2004) e uma adaptação beta padronizada por Hwang, Rubesam e Salmon (2018) para o mercado de Criptomoedas. Os resultados revelam que o efeito-manada em direção ao mercado apresenta significativa movimentação e persistência independentemente da condição de mercado, expressa através do índice de mercado, volatilidade de mercado e índice de volatilidade. Ao analisar o efeito-manada, é possível observar que o efeito-manada foi intenso durante o período investigado. Também identificamos uma relação positiva entre o estresse de mercado e efeito-manada. / [en] Herding is a feature of investor behavior in financial markets, particularly in market stress. In the thesis we will apply an approach based on the transversal dispersion of individual stock betas, which allows us to extract herd patterns, using two dynamic methodologies to measure the herd phenomenon over time with a state-space model in three different markets. The first study analyzes beta herding in the Brazilian stock market using a statespace model, controlled by two groupings of companies: those stocks listed on the market index (Ibovespa) and those listed on the stock exchange as a whole. The findings revealed a high herd on the Brazilian stock exchange, with only small differences between the clusters. Regarding the control variables, we found that the dividend yield, market volatility, SMB, and WML factors were significant for both groups, indicating that the herd is significant regardless of the behavior of these variables. The second study examines beta herding in the commodity market, using the methodology developed by Hwang and Salmon (2004) and a beta adaptation standardized by Hwang, Rubesam, and Salmon (2018). We analyzed the behavior of fifteen commodities between 2000 and 2018 and then extracted the food commodities to test their effect separately. The results suggest that betas can deviate from fundamentals in both samples. However, food commodity betas tend to revert more quickly to stability between demand and supply, which results in a long-term risk-return balance. The third study applies the methodology of Hwang and Salmon (2004) and a beta adaptation standardized by Hwang, Rubesam, and Salmon (2018) for the Cryptocurrency market. The results reveal that the herd towards the market presents significant movement and persistence regardless of the market condition, expressed through the market index, market volatility, and volatility index. When analyzing trail herding, it is possible to observe that herding was intense during the investigated period. We also identified a positive relationship between herding and market stress.

This paper delves into the significance of land disposal to indigenous rights and Settler-Colonies. Specifically, it examines land use regulations for forestry management and Forest Sami villages. Through interviews with practicing forest reindeer herders, it has been revealed that forestry practices in Sweden have dramatically altered the landscape, posing significant challenges to the continuation of reindeer herding. In the context of Settler-Colonialism, the analysis of these findings shows that land use regulations align with the "logic of elimination," which seeks to remove the native population to secure settlers’ access to land.

Background Indigenous peoples with traditional lifestyles worldwide are considered particularly vulnerable to climate change effects. Large climate change impacts on the spread of infectious vector-borne diseases are expected as a health outcome. The most rapid climate changes are occurring in the Arctic regions, and as a part of this region northernmost Sweden might experience early effects. In this thesis, climate change effects on the lives of Sami reindeer herders are described and 30 years of weather changes are quantified. Epidemiology of the climate sensitive human infection tularemia is assessed, baseline serologic prevalence of tularemia is investigated and the disease burden is quantified across inhabitants in the region. Methods Perceptions and experiences of climate change effects among the indigenous Sami reindeer herders of northern Sweden were investigated through qualitative analyses of fourteen interviews. The results were then combined with instrumental weather data from ten meteorological stations in a mixed-methods design to further illustrate climate change effects in this region. In two following studies, tularemia ecology and epidemiology were investigated. A total of 4,792 reported cases of tularemia between 1984 and 2012 were analysed and correlated to ecological regions and presence of inland water using geographical mapping. The status of tularemia in the Swedish Arctic region was further investigated through risk factor analyses of a 2012 regional outbreak and a cross-sectional serological survey to estimate the burden of disease including unreported cases. Results The reindeer herders described how the winters of northern Sweden have changed since the 1970s – warmer winters with shorter snow season and cold periods, and earlier spring. The adverse effects on the reindeer herders through the obstruction of their work, the stress induced and the threat to their lifestyle was demonstrated, forcing the reindeer herders towards the limit of resilience. Weather data supported the observations of winter changes; some stations displayed a more than two full months shorter snow cover season and winter temperatures increased significantly, most pronounced in the lowest temperatures. During the same time period a near tenfold increase in national incidence of tularemia was observed in Sweden (from 0.26 to 2.47/100,000 p<0.001) with a clear overrepresentation of cases in the north versus the south (4.52 vs. 0.56/100,000 p<0.001). The incidence was positively correlated with the presence of inland water (p<0.001) and higher than expected in the alpine and boreal ecologic regions (p<0.001). In the outbreak investigation a dose-response relationship to water was identified; distance from residence to water – less than 100 m, mOR 2.86 (95% CI 1.79–4.57) and 100 to 500 m, mOR 1.63 (95% CI 1.08–2.46). The prevalence of tularemia antibodies in the two northernmost counties was 2.9% corresponding to a 16 times higher number of cases than reported indicating that the reported numbers represent only a minute fraction of the true tularemia. Conclusions The extensive winter changes pose a threat to reindeer herding in this region. Tularemia is increasing in Sweden, it has a strong correlation to water and northern ecoregions, and unreported tularemia cases are quite common.

Finanzkrisen sind spätestens seit den 1990'er Jahren ein sehr prominentes und interessantes Forschungsobjekt der Wirtschaftswissenschaften. Dieses Jahrzehnt war durch eine Vielzahl von Finanzkrisen gekennzeichnet, von denen nur wenige Länder vollkommen verschont blieben. Die vorliegenden Arbeit gliedert sich in drei Hauptteile: Im ersten Teil werden die unterschiedlichen Theorien zur Beschreibung von Finanzkrisen kategorisiert und jeweils verschiedene bedeutende Arbeiten vorgestellt. Im zweiten Teil der Arbeit werden Gründe für das Auftreten von Herdenverhalten auf Finanzmärkten und dessen Auswirkungen untersucht. Dabei wird zunächst der Stand der Forschung dargestellt. Eine wichtige Voraussetzung für das effiziente Funktionieren von Märkten ist, daß die Marktteilnehmer vollkommene Informationen besitzen. Dies ist in der Realität aber zumeist nicht gegeben. Das in Teil zwei entwickelte Modell basiert auf darauf, daß Informationen unvollkommen sind und asymmetrisch verteilt. Es ist in der Lage die Entwicklung von Herdenverhalten dynamisch zu erklären. Wie dieses Modell zeigt, kann Herdenverhalten zum einen zu stark abweichenden Asset-Preisen führen, welche dabei, gleich einer Blase, stark ansteigen können, um dann wieder ebenso stark zurückzugehen bzw. zu platzen. Zum anderen kann sich ein Herdenverhalten unter internationalen Anlegern auf die Wechselkurse auswirken oder sogar zu einem Zusammenbruch eines fixen Wechselkurses führen. Insbesondere in den 1990'er Jahren konnte man immer wieder beobachten, daß Finanzkrisen nicht nur auf ein einzelnes Land beschränkt waren, sondern sich über mehrere Länder innerhalb einer Region oder auch über die ganze Welt verteilt ausbreiteten. Im dritten Teil der vorliegenden Arbeit werden derartige Ansteckungseffekte genauer untersucht. Hierzu wird zunächst ein Überblick über den Stand der Forschung gegeben. Weiter wird ein Modell entwickelt, welches eine portfoliotheoretische Erklärung für Ansteckungseffekte liefert. Der contagion-Mechanismus kann dabei kurz wie folgt beschrieben werden: Eine Krise in einem Land j führt zu Verlusten eines hoch informierten Investors aus einem Land i. Dies kann wiederum dazu führen, daß er die Investitionen in seinem Heimatmarkt reduziert und dadurch fällt dort der Preis eines Assets. Ein Investor aus einem dritten Land mit einem niedrigeren Informationsstand wird diesen Preisrückgang als schlechtes Signal für den Ertrag aus dem Asset interpretieren. Als Konsequenz zieht er ebenfalls Kapital aus diesem Asset und damit auch aus Land i ab. Der Kapitalabzug des ausländischen Investors kann nun dazu führen, daß es in Land i ebenfalls zu einer Krise kommt. Die Arbeit schließt mit einer Zusammenfassung der gewonnenen Erkenntnisse und liefert einige sich hieraus ergebende Politikempfehlungen zur Verhinderung bzw. Abschwächung von Finanzkrisen. Dabei werden insbesondere die Ursachen und Folgen von Herdenverhalten und Ansteckungseffekten berücksichtigt.

Die Chanten leben als Rentierzüchter in der Taiga Westsibiriens – eine Lebensweise, die durch die Erdölförderung verdrängt wird. Ihr Leben verläuft heute räumlich und sozial im Wechsel zwischen Wald und Stadt. Ihre Strategien, kulturelle Differenz und Autonomie durch Grenzziehungen mit Hilfe religiöser Praktiken und sozialer Normen aufrechtzuerhalten, werden am Beispiel des Festes zum „Tag des Rentierzüchters“ verdeutlicht. Der Autor zeigt, wie Menschen der Taiga in dieser Situation eigene Praktiken des Verbergens und Vermeidens, aber auch neue Wege der öffentlichen Repräsentation nutzen. / The Khanty live as reindeer herders in the Western Siberian Taiga but their lifestyle is endangered by crude oil extraction on their land. Today their lives are divided socially as well as spatially between the town and the forest. By taking the celebration of the Day of the Reindeer Herder as an example, the book describes the indigenous strategies to keep cultural difference and autonomy alive by drawing boundaries and maintaining religious practices and social norms. The author shows how the people of the Taiga use their traditions of hiding and avoiding as well as new ways of public representation to cope with the changes. / Оленеводы-ханты живут в Западносибирской тайге, на этой же территории ведется добыча нефти, которая ставить их образ жизни под угрозу. Их жизнь сегодня связана одновременно и с тайгой и с городом, между которыми они постоянно перемещаются и пространственно и социально. На примере празднования Дня Оленевода автор пассматривает существующие у жителей тайги стратегии сохранения культурного своеобразия и культурной автономии, связанные с проведением социальных границ при помощи культурных практик и социальных норм. Автор показывает, что в этой ситуации ханты используют как традиционные практики избегания и скрывания, так и новые способы публичной репрезентации.

This thesis conducts empirical studies related to financial institutions and corporate finance. Specifically, I look at banks’ lending behavior, performance of leveraged buyouts (LBOs), and the cultural impact on cross-border LBOs. Following an introduction in Chapter 1, in Chapter 2, I study U.S. commercial banks’ herding behavior in their domestic loan decisions, where herding is defined as the extent to which banks deviate from the industry average lending decisions and collectively increase or decrease loans to certain categories. I find significant evidence that herding exists and that banks tend to herd more when the economic condition is less favorable, regulation is tight, and when banks are struggling . Overall, these findings support the hypotheses of information asymmetry and regulatory arbitrage as motivations for herding. Chapter 3 provides a comprehensive study of LBO deal characteristics, participants’ involvement, and their impact on target firms’ performance. I find that better post-buyout operating performance is associated with larger amounts of leverage added during the LBO process, tighter LBO loan covenants, and equity contribution by target firms’ incumbent management. LBOs are more likely to exit through an IPO or a sale if they use more bank debt with tighter covenants and are sponsored by private equity (PE) firms of high reputation. These results suggest that the main source of value creation in LBOs is the reduced agency costs through the disciplining effect of debt, closer monitoring by lenders, and the better aligned management incentives. PE reputation is also important in ensuring successful deal outcomes. Chapter 4 (co-authored) examines the impact of cultural differences between PE firms and target firms on the completion of cross-border LBOs. We find that cultural distance between PE and target firms reduces the likelihood of buyout completion and increases the time between buyout announcement and completion. We also find that club deals moderate the negative (positive) impact of cultural distance on the likelihood (the duration) of LBO completion. This mitigation effect is through the increased familiarity channel of club formation. Our findings contribute to the literature that underscores the importance of culture in economic outcomes. / Thesis (Ph.D, Management) -- Queen's University, 2014-06-24 08:59:00.0

基於凱因斯選美競賽概念我們知道，如果要掌握金融市場的整個運作過程，除了要了解市場參與者所持有的信念外，更要進一步去了解市場參與者對其他市場參與者的信念的可能看法，也就是所謂的高階信念。因此，本篇研究的主要目的是嘗試描述高階預期概念在資產定價模型中所扮演的角色，同時也可以檢驗凱因斯的選美競賽理論是否可以幫助我們了解資產價格的形成過程。第二個目的是利用資產定價模型進一步去檢視市場交易者是否對公開訊息有過度反應的現象。 透過建立噪音的理性預期模型來推導外匯價格的預期形成過程發現，外匯價格所傳遞的訊息為偏誤的訊息，亦即在供給衝擊下的平均外匯價格並不會完全反映外匯真實價值，其反映的是外匯資產真實價值及公開訊息的線性組合。此外，經過進一步研究後發現，外匯價格的預期受公開訊息的影響程度遠大於真實訊息，亦即市場上的外匯價格預期對公開訊息有過度反應的現象。 另外，模型的研究結果指出，造成市場參與者對於公開訊息產生過度反應的原因有：投機者的人數比例、投機者的風險愛好程度以及私有訊息的精確度等三項。 / Based on Keynes’s beauty contest theory, if you want to know the operation of financial market, you should understand market participants' beliefs and market participants' beliefs about other market participants’ beliefs, which is called the higher order beliefs. The goal of the paper is to illuminate the role of higher order expectations in the asset pricing model, and thereby to explore the extent to which Keynes’s beauty contest theory is useful in thinking about asset prices. The second goal of this paper is to use the asset pricing model to examine whether market participants overreact to public information. By setting up the noisy rational expectations model, we know that exchange rate is biased signal of the underlying fundamental value. Mean exchange rate taken over realization of the supply shocks are given by convex combination of the true value and public information. Moreover, the distribution of exchange rates is biased towards public information relative to the true value. That is, there is an overreaction to public information. Finally, the model indicates that there are three factors to explain why market participants overreact to public information. These factors are the proportion of speculators, the risk aversion of speculators and the precision of private information.

Les motivacions entorn al programari lliure han estat sempre un tema de gran interès, sent la pregunta més obvia, "perquè les persones treballen de forma gratuïta?". Les motivacions dels desenvolupadors han estat establertes (per exemple, von Hippel (2001), Lerner and Tirole (2002)). De la mateixa manera que ho han estat per a les empreses grans i petites que adopten programari lliure basat en models de negoci (per exemple, Lakhani and von Hippel, 2003; Fitzgerald, 2006; Krishnamurthy, 2004). No obstant això, un nombre cada vegada més elevat de les PIMES amb estratègies que no estan directament relacionades amb aquest model de negoci estan contribuint a les comunitats de programari lliure. En aquest estudi s'investiga les motivacions d'aquestes empreses des d'un punt de vista de comportament mitjançant un model d'investigació basat en TPB (Theory of Planned Behavior). Hem demostrat que factors com la "obertura" d'una PIME, la importància percebuda del programari lliure, els desenvolupadors (empleats) d'una PIME, juntament amb l'ambient extern, podrien influir en la decisió d'una PIME a participar en comunitats de programari lliure. A més, hem demostrat que es poden identificar algunes diferències entre empreses d'alta base tecnològica i empreses amb poca base tecnològica. Aquestes conclusions poden ajudar governs nacionals o regionals per millorar el disseny de polítiques per tal d'incentivar l'ús i la participació de les empreses en les comunitats de programari lliure. Especialment ara, degut a la forta crisi econòmica que pateix Europa, el programari lliure pot ser una solució adequada per a fomentar la innovació. / Motivations in FLOSS have always been a subject of great interest, by starting with the most obvious question, “why people work for free?”. The motivations of developers have been well established (eg von Hippel (2001), Lerner and Tirole 2002). The same exists also for big and small companies adopting FLOSS based Business Models (eg Lakhani and von Hippel, 2003; Fitzgerald 2006; Krishnamurthy, 2004). However an increasing number of SMEs with strategies not directly related to the Business Model are contributing to FLOSS communities. In this study we try to investigate these motivations under a behavioral perspective by using a research model based on TPB (Theory of Planned Behavior). We demonstrated that factors like the “openness” of a SME, the perceived importance of FLOSS, the developers (employees) of a SME along with the external environment of a SME, could influence the decision of a SME to participate in FLOSS communities. Also, we have demonstrated that some differences can be identified between high tech firms and non high tech firms. These findings can help national or regional governments to design better policies in order to better promote the use and the participation of firms to FLOSS communities. Especially now, in times of heavy economical crisis in Europe, FLOSS can be an adequate solution to foster innovation.

Au cours de la dernière décennie, les chercheurs se sont intéressés au comportement de l'investisseur sur les marchés boursiers. Nombreuses théories en psychologie et sociologie sont mobilisées en finance comportementale pour dépasser les limites de l'hypothèse de l’efficience des marchés et expliquer la fragilité des marchés financiers. En analysant le comportement grégaire (mimétisme), les chercheurs tentent d'expliquer les anomalies et les grands mouvements du marché. Le comportement grégaire peut être décrit comme la tendance d'un investisseur ou d’un groupe d'investisseurs, à imiter les actions des autres acteurs du marché, ou à suivre la tendance du marché. Notre première étude examine la présence du comportement grégaire, en se concentrant sur le marché boursier français, au niveau du marché et au niveau des secteurs. Nous étudions le mimétisme selon différentes conditions macroéconomiques. Nous testons aussi l'existence du mimétisme au cours de la dernière période de crise financière et pendant les périodes caractérisées par des volumes (élevés ou faibles) de volatilité et de volume de transaction. En utilisant le modèle de CH 95, nous ne détectons pas de comportement grégaire, à la fois au niveau du marché qu’au niveau des secteurs, pendant les mouvements de marché extrêmes. Les modèles de CCK 2000 et Hwang et Salmon 2004 montrent des résultats mitigés. Même lorsque le comportement grégaire est détecté au niveau du marché, les secteurs se comportent différemment. La mesure que nous extrayons du state-space model montre différents niveaux de mimétisme dans les secteurs. La deuxième étude examine le mimétisme, sur les marchés boursiers américains et chinois, en introduisant une nouvelle dimension : l'asymétrie d'information. Nous utilisons plusieurs mesures de la disponibilité de l'information : la politique de dividende, le bid-ask spread, la taille de l'entreprise, la sophistication du marché, ainsi que l'état du marché (pré, post et pendant la période de crise). Cette étude nous permet d’analyser le mimétisme dans différents contextes selon la disponibilité de l'information. Elle permet de vérifier si le mimétisme est plus prononcé dans un contexte d'asymétrie d'information élevée. D’une part, les résultats du modèle de CH 95 ne montrent aucune preuve de mimétisme quel que soit le niveau d'asymétrie d'information entre les entreprises et les investisseurs, à la fois pour les marchés américain et chinois. D'autre part, le modèle CCK 2000 détecte des différences de niveau de mimétisme dans le marché boursier chinois en fonction du niveau d'asymétrie d'information. Les résultats suggèrent que les marchés émergents sont touchés par le mimétisme pendant la période de crise, quelle que soit la taille de l'entreprise. Enfin, le modèle de Hwang et Salmon 2004 montre différents niveaux de mimétisme dans les marchés américain et chinois, en fonction du niveau d'asymétrie d'information. Il est intéressant pour la recherche sur la modélisation des marchés boursiers d’examiner le comportement grégaire des investisseurs. De la même façon, les décideurs politiques pourraient être intéressés par les effets perturbateurs potentiels du mimétisme sur les marchés financiers. / Over the last decade, the academic research has highly focused on examining the investor’s behavior in stock markets. Many theories in psychology and sociology are used in the so called “Behavioral Finance” in order to explain the limits of the efficient market hypothesis and the financial market fragility. By analyzing the herding behavior, the researchers try to explain the market anomalies and the large market movements. Herding behavior can be described as the tendency of an investor, or a group of investors, to imitate the actions of other market participants, or to follow the market movement. Our first study examines the presence of herding behavior, focusing on the French stock market, at both market and sector levels. We investigate herding during different macroeconomic conditions. We also test the existence of herding during the last financial crisis period, and during the periods characterized by high or low volatility and transaction volumes. Using the CH 95 model, we do not observe herding behavior, both in market and sector levels, during extreme market movements. The CCK 2000 and Hwang and Salmon 2004 models show mixed results. Even when herding exists in the market level, various sectors behave differently. The measure we extract from the state-space model shows different patterns of herding at the sector level. The second study examines the investors’ incentives behind herding, in the US and Chinese stock markets, by introducing a new dimension, which is the information asymmetry. Using several proxies for information availability, such as dividend policy, bid ask spread, firm size and market sophistication along with considering the market condition (pre, post and during crisis period), this study allows us to investigate herding in different contexts of information availability, and to examine if herding is more pronounced in a high information asymmetry context. Findings of CH 95 model show no evidence of herding regardless of the level of information asymmetry between firms and investors in both the US and Chinese stock markets. On the other hand, the CCK 2000 model detects herding differences in the Chinese stock market depending on the information asymmetry level. The findings suggest that the emerging markets are affected by herding during the crisis period, regardless of the firm size. Finally, the Hwang and Salmon 2004 model shows different herding patterns in the US and Chinese stock markets depending on the information asymmetry level. Examining the herding behavior is interesting for the research in the market modeling field along with policymakers who may be interested in investigating the potential disturbing effects of herding on stock markets.