Keynes (1936) first brought up the relationship between consumption and national income, but Kuznets¡¦observation about the U.S. data was not supported by the Keynes consumption function form. So there are many macroeconomic theories trying to explain the phenomenon observed by Kuznets. This paper uses the way developed by Campbell (1987) to test the permanent income hypothesis suggested by Friedman with Taiwan data. In addition, this paper uses the stochastic cointegration developed by Harris, McCabe, and Leybourne (2002) to re-examine the relationship between consum-ption and national income because the traditional non-stochastic cointegration assumes that the error term is linear and homogeneous, which may be too strong to fit the real world. Besides, this paper compares the nonstochastic cointegration with the stochastic cointegration, and the evidence founded is that the permanent income hypothesis is not supported by Taiwan data with these two methods.

The principle aim of this thesis is to construct a consumption function for Turkey for policy analysis using the annual State Planning Organisation (SPO) time-series data. This study commences from 1962 and extends until the end of 1994, when a financial crisis occurred in Turkey. It attempts to analyse not only the decline in the private savings rate during the first half of the 1980s, but also the significant rise from 1986 onwards. The thesis starts with an introduction which explodes the main research objectives, considers the existing consumption theories and extentions, records the main data features to be explained, briefly overviews the modelling strategy and discusses the basic considerations of the research and gives the structure of thesis. A literature survey on the theory of consumption is given in Chapter 2. The LifeCycle/ Permanent-Income hypothesis is considered as central to the two mainstream approach. : the Euler approach and the solved-out approach. These approaches are further extended by considering uncertainty and precautionary saving, credit restrictions, saving and leisure. habit or costs of adjustments and the durability of goods, the role of assets and asset prices. financial liberalisation and demographic factors. Finally, comparisons between the two approaches arc made in the conclusion of that chapter. Theory can deliver concepts with permanent relationships in economics, but it should be supported by empirical findings, since theory alone is insufficient to determine the actual economic relationship. Hence, Chapter 3 focuses on theoretical and appl ied modelling issues to construct a theory-consistent, congruent and encompassing consumption function. Congruency implies that the empirical model matches the available evidence in al l measured attributes (i.e., it is consistent with the theory from which it was derived, has unexplained components that arc innovations against available information, has basic parameters that are constant, is data admissible, and where any conditioning variables are weakly exogenous for the parameters of interest). Encompassing denotes that the model of interest can account for the result of rival models of the same phenomena. I also define structure as the set of invariant features of the economic mechanism. A parameter can be structural only if it is invariant for an extension of the sample period (constant), is invariant with respect to changes elsewhere in the economy (regime shifts), and is invariant over extensions of the information set (adding more variables). Chapter 4 examines the small-sample properties of the statistical methods used by means of Monte Carlo simulations. The informativeness of the data is investigated in an unrestricted Vector Auto-regression (VAR) with small-samples of noisy data combined with a high real growth rate and nominal inflation. This is to see how the relative drift dominates in explaining the informativeness of the data. The Monte results are summarised by using response surfaces to relate the biases to sample size. The ratio of standard deviations to standard errors in each equation is also analysed. The strong impacts of the system error variances in these response surfaces indicate the importance of high variances in VA Rs. Furthermore, I found noise, and a function of the signal to noise ratio. and cross-equation correlation had a large impact, but less effect from the relative drift. Chapter 5 presents an overview of the Turkish Economy, particularly during the sample period. by pointing out the lessons to be drawn from the stabilisation experiments and their effect on the private sector saving decision in Turkey. The aim of Chapter 6 is to get nominal housing wealth and housing price data from the available data, such as the nominal private disposable income. nominal private investment in the housing sector and the consumer price index, since housing wealth is claimed to be a major determinant of private savings in Turkey. Chapter 7 aims to reveal the problems of Turkish data by analysing the history of the Turkish a1ional Accounts to construct a data-base for estimating a consumption function for Turkey. GDP by expenditure is constructed from five different sources. Turkish accounting residuals are allocated by applying the linear regression approach. The results show that GDP-by-output is more reliable than the GDP-by-expenditure measure for Turkey. Chapter 8 is devoted to the time series modelling and evidence. Previous findings on consumption for Turkey have been formulated using conventional econometric techniques with a static estimation methodology within the Permanent Income Hypothesis (PIH). I adopted the equilibrium correction model (ECM) solved-out consumption function approach and tried to incorporate the effects of age. precautionary behaviour in the case of uncertainty, credit constraints, habits or costs of adjustments. and the durability of goods for developing belier understanding of private sector savings behaviour in Turkey. The modelling is based on the dynamic econometric methodology that involves the estimation of a general unrestricted model (GUM). a co-integration and long-run analysis, and the simplification of the GUM to a parsimonious dynamic model that is deduced by applying a sequential testing procedure. The final model is congruent: It matches the available evidence in all measured attributes and forecasts well, has white noise errors and constant parameters, and encompasses the VAR model equation as well as other specifications in previous models. Moreover, the model has a structural interpretation. The results of the final model reveal strong positive effects of the real interest rate. inflation and inflation uncertainty, a strong negative effect of population aged 15-44, a positive effect after one lag period of the change in the average propensity to consume. which represents the effects of expectations, habits or adjustment costs, in addition to the significant effect of the inverse of per capita Private Disposable Income and the change in housing wealth to income ra1io on the private average propensity to consume in Turkey. These findings offer an explana1ion for the salient features of the Turkish consumption pattern observed from 1he lime series data. These results also provide some policy implications such that inOation control should be strengthened and improved for consumption stabilisation. Furthermore. interest rate policy also has an important role to play in the savings process in Turkey. The research on small-sample properties of 1hc statistical methods by means of Monte Carlo Simulations strengthens the results of the empirical model. These. confirm the poor determination of intercepts in I(I) VARs, and the corresponding advantages of an equilibrium correction model formulation. Furthermore. the insignificance the of irrelevant dynamics should encourage model builders to use a dynamic econometric methodology to develop parsimonious models, such as used for building a consumption model for Turkey in this thesis.

No description available.

This paper focuses on the consumer expenditure habits in the years following the 2008 recession as compared to Milton Freidman’s Permanent Income Hypothesis. Panel data collected at the household level from the Consumer Expenditure Survey was used to analyze the change in consumption based on the change in income for the years 2009, 2010 and 2011. To achieve a greater understanding of expenditure patterns, this essay also analyzes the income elasticity of demand for elastic goods including expenditure on apparel, food eaten at restaurants, entertainment and transportation. With the use of panel and time series regressions we find that the Permanent Income Hypothesis holds true and consumers only marginally responded to a change in income in their consumption patterns. We hypothesize that the large spike in savings that was seen in May of 2008 resulted because of low consumer confidence, which in turn lead to a change in transitory consumption. Furthermore, we find that older adults spent more money on elastic goods than younger adults. This may be because older adults tend to have other assets that can financially support them in the case of a drastic change in income.

This thesis investigates which factors affecting savings behavior by using a fixed effect regression model. To see what affects the household savings rate the following independent variables is considered: Natural logarithm of trend per capita income, natural logarithm of deviation from trend per capita income, growth of disposable income, real interest rate, inflation, wealth in relation to household disposable income, foreign savings in relation to disposable income, dependency ratio and human development index. To see whether changes of human development within a county impacts the household´s savings ratio this variables was included in a separate regression. To avoid possible biasedness from ordinary least square, a panel data technique called fixed effect regression model is used. The investigated time period is between year 1999 and 2016 and to make a restriction, variables from 25 developed countries were studied. The involved economic theories in this work are Keynesianism, permanent income hypothesis and the savings theory behind Maslow´s behavioral pyramid. The result made by using this study is that growth in income and foreign savings in relation to disposable income is insignificant and can´t be used in explaining the differences between household´s savings. Human development index within a country has a negative effect on the savings ratio but a conclusion regarding whether changes in HDI´s does affect savings can´t be made and more research within that field is needed.

Made available in DSpace on 2010-04-20T20:59:59Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 4 Regis Augusto Hideshi Abe.pdf.jpg: 2223 bytes, checksum: 2854124c57e695ce52bf460970864c3c (MD5) Regis Augusto Hideshi Abe.pdf.txt: 62572 bytes, checksum: 862464582587bd7801be3830258789c6 (MD5) license.txt: 4712 bytes, checksum: 4dea6f7333914d9740702a2deb2db217 (MD5) Regis Augusto Hideshi Abe.pdf: 232796 bytes, checksum: c10e5a8ac8150a214101dc62b3f6cff2 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2010-01-27T00:00:00Z / A teoria de consumo indica que os indivíduos maximizam sua utilidade se suavizarem o consumo ao longo da vida. Manter o consumo constante seria melhor que se sujeitar à instabilidade. Entretanto a maior parte dos testes realizados com informações brasileiras contraria esta hipótese. Este trabalho apresenta resultados diferentes, com indícios de suavização do consumo em um período recente. Para a realização deste trabalho, foram utilizados dados nacionais extraídos do site do IPEA (IPEADATA), onde estão disponíveis séries de consumo, renda, juros, crédito, assim como deflatores. As séries foram tratadas de maneira a se padronizarem como trimestrais, incorporando o período entre primeiro trimestre de 1991 e o segundo trimestre de 2009. Com o auxílio de técnica de estimação de quebras estruturais, ficaram evidentes os momentos em que as séries macroeconômicas tiveram mudanças significativas. Desta maneira, o histórico de informações foi subdividido conforme o panorama econômico. Cada período deste histórico foi submetido a um processo de estimação de crescimento de consumo a partir de crescimento de renda, juros e crescimento de crédito. A teoria de suavização do consumo sugere que a estimação deveria resultar em estimativas não significantes, pois o consumo não estaria atrelado ao acesso ao credito ou variações temporárias da renda. O que se verificou foi que em um histórico mais distante, os resultados foram bastante parecidos com resultados observados em bibliografia. Entretanto, em um período mais recente o consumo estaria se desvencilhando da renda e do crédito. Isto sugere que a suavização do consumo pode estar se concretizando no Brasil. / Consumption theory suggests that individuals maximize their utility to smooth their consumption along their lives. Constant consumption would be better than instability. However most of the tests performed with Brazilian information contradict this hypothesis. This study presents different results, with evidence of consumption smoothing in a recent period. Brazilian data has been used in this study. Consumption, income, interest, credit and deflators have been extracted from the IPEA site (IPEADATA). Those series were standardized in a quarterly basis, comprehending the period from the first quarter of 1991 until the second quarter of 2009. By estimating structural breaks, it was possible to highlight what were the moments subjected to significant changes in economy. Thus, the historical data was divided according to the economic outlook. Each period of history has undergone a process of estimation of consumption growth on income growth, interest and credit growth. The theory of consumption smoothing assumes that the result estimates should not be significant, because the consumer would not be restricted to credit or temporary fluctuations in income. Results tell that in a further past, conclusions were very similar to literature. However, in a more recent period, consumption would be becoming independent of income and credit. This suggests that consumption smoothing may be becoming a reality in Brazil.

Submitted by Cesar Fukushima (fukushimacesar@gmail.com) on 2018-05-11T19:35:54Z No. of bitstreams: 1 CESAR_T_FUKUSHIMA_FINAL.pdf: 1330741 bytes, checksum: fa16e039db18efc7ce1d52fbc317312f (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Simone de Andrade Lopes Pires (simone.lopes@fgv.br) on 2018-05-14T20:52:37Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 CESAR_T_FUKUSHIMA_FINAL.pdf: 1330741 bytes, checksum: fa16e039db18efc7ce1d52fbc317312f (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Suzane Guimarães (suzane.guimaraes@fgv.br) on 2018-05-15T12:49:12Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 CESAR_T_FUKUSHIMA_FINAL.pdf: 1330741 bytes, checksum: fa16e039db18efc7ce1d52fbc317312f (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-05-15T12:49:12Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 CESAR_T_FUKUSHIMA_FINAL.pdf: 1330741 bytes, checksum: fa16e039db18efc7ce1d52fbc317312f (MD5) Previous issue date: 2018-04-17 / O presente trabalho consiste em uma análise do consumo das famílias utilizando-se a hipótese da renda permanente e do ciclo de vida, com base nos indicadores de consumo, crédito, renda e juros no Brasil durante o período de 2003 a 2017, em um ambiente econômico que apresentou um ciclo de expansão, seguido por duas crises econômicas, sendo que a segunda crise (após 2015) trouxe agravamentos ao ambiente econômico do país. Para tanto, utilizaram-se a metodologia proposta por Campbell e Mankiw (1989) e o Vetor Auto Regressivo (VAR) sobre as séries históricas de renda, crédito, taxa de juros e volume de crédito à pessoa física. Com base na metodologia de Markov Switching-VAR, buscou-se analisar quebras estruturais no comportamento do consumidor no período analisado. O resultado mostrou duas quebras estruturais, uma entre o segundo trimestre de 2003 e o quarto trimestre de 2007 e outra entre o primeiro trimestre de 2008 e o segundo trimestre de 2015. Em todos os períodos, o modelo de Campbell e Mankiw apresentou comportamentos similares, nos quais se rejeita a hipótese da renda permanente. No período entre o terceiro trimestre de 2015 e o terceiro trimestre de 2017, momento de grande impacto da crise econômica brasileira, obteve-se uma rejeição da hipótese da renda permanente com aumento significativo da restrição à liquidez e ao crédito. Segundo o modelo VAR, que tenta identificar o comportamento dinâmico das variáveis em estudo, observou-se que choques gerados individualmente na renda e no crédito têm impacto positivo no consumo, ou seja, geram um incremento no consumo das famílias; no entanto um choque nos juros tem um efeito inversamente proporcional no consumo, o que está de acordo com a rejeição da hipótese da renda permanente. / The present work consists of an analysis of household consumption using the permanent income and life cycle hypothesis, based on consumption, credit, income and interest rate indicators in Brazil from 2003 to 2017, in an economic environment that presented a cycle of expansion, followed by two economic crisis, with the second crisis (after 2015) aggravating to the country's economic environment. In this work the employed methodology was the one proposed by Campbell and Mankiw (1989) together with the Vector Auto Regressive (VAR), on the historical series of income, credit, interest rate and volume of credit to individuals. Based on the Markov SwitchingVAR methodology, we sought to analyze structural breaks in consumer behavior during the analyzed period. The result showed two structural breaks, one between the second quarter of 2003 and the fourth quarter of 2007, and another between the first quarter of 2008 and the second quarter of 2015. In all periods, the Campbell and Mankiw model showed similar behavior, in which we reject the hypothesis of permanent income. Between the third quarter of 2015 and the third quarter of 2017, a period of great impact of the Brazilian economic crisis, the hypothesis of permanent income was rejected, with a significant increase in the restriction on liquidity and credit. According to the VAR model, which tries to identify the dynamic behavior of the variables under study, we have observed that shocks individually generated on income and credit have a positive impact on consumption, ie, it generates an increase in household consumption. On the other hand, a shock on the interest rate causes an inversely proportional effect on consumption, which is in line with the rejection of the hypothesis of permanent income.

This thesis deals with the relationship between mood and behavior of bettors using a dataset provided by a betting company, Chance a.s., which operates in the Czech Republic. We consider three types of proxies for the mood: weather in regions, sport successes and the results of elections, and we build a fixed effect model to estimate the effect of mood on betting behavior. We provide strong evidence that the weather proxy has a significant effect on daily turnovers of the betting company and there also seems to be an effect of sport optimism. On the contrary, we failed to find any impact of elections. The results show that better mood tend to discourage clients from sports and lottery betting which is consistent with the increase in risk aversion or the depletion of a common self-control resource due to active mood regulation attempts. Additionally, we provide an evidence that the intra-month cycle in turnovers corresponds to liquidity constraint of bettors which disproves the permanent income hypothesis.

<p>The primary aim of this thesis has been to analyse the transformation of the Swedish capital market from a household perspective. The investigation shows that the transition from a mostly private credit market to a more institutionalised credit market took place at the end of the nineteenth century. At this time there were several actors in the credit market that were able to fulfil the diverse needs of credit that different households might have. This need was very much correlated to the household’s particular stage in its life-cycle. In accordance with the life-cycle theory and the permanent income hypothesis, households displayed a savings and consumption pattern that was dependent on income and the burden of expenditure. Households also seemed to have particular difficulty meeting expenditures, so-called life-cycle squeezes, when the household was first started, when the household size was at its peak and when the head of family reached old age, which coincided with a declining capacity to work. The investigation also shows that household savings were meant for old age. Contrary to the assumption made in life-cycle theory, households seemed to intend to provide heirs with an inheritance. This finding is more in keeping with the permanent income hypothesis, which states that households were expected to maintain their assets intact over the course of a life-time.</p>

The primary aim of this thesis has been to analyse the transformation of the Swedish capital market from a household perspective. The investigation shows that the transition from a mostly private credit market to a more institutionalised credit market took place at the end of the nineteenth century. At this time there were several actors in the credit market that were able to fulfil the diverse needs of credit that different households might have. This need was very much correlated to the household’s particular stage in its life-cycle. In accordance with the life-cycle theory and the permanent income hypothesis, households displayed a savings and consumption pattern that was dependent on income and the burden of expenditure. Households also seemed to have particular difficulty meeting expenditures, so-called life-cycle squeezes, when the household was first started, when the household size was at its peak and when the head of family reached old age, which coincided with a declining capacity to work. The investigation also shows that household savings were meant for old age. Contrary to the assumption made in life-cycle theory, households seemed to intend to provide heirs with an inheritance. This finding is more in keeping with the permanent income hypothesis, which states that households were expected to maintain their assets intact over the course of a life-time.