Кредитование физических лиц – одно из основных направлений деятельности коммерческих банков, приносящий доход. Для населения кредиты один из возможных способов повысить свой уровень жизни, например, купив недвижимость. Актуальность темы исследования обусловлена тем, что каждый год повышается спрос физических лиц на банковские кредиты, растет конкуренция на рынке среди кредитных организаций, что вызывает необходимые изменения в кредитной системе всей страны. Научная новизна работы: 1) Предложено более точное толкование определения просроченной задолженности (проблемная) по потребительскому кредиту, что позволяет увязать понятие проблемной задолженности по кредиту с высоким уровнем финансовых потерь в банке при ненадлежащем обслуживании заемщика кредита, что часто связано с ухудшением финансового положения заемщика. 2) Предложено усовершенствовать систему оценки платежеспособности заемщиков путем внедрения психоскоринга (с учетом требований закона о защите персональных данных), что позволит сформировать целостный портрет с точки зрения платежеспособности. 3) Предложено усовершенствовать механизм комплексного обслуживания клиента путем подключения овердрафта и выбора расчета ежемесячного платежа клиентом, что позволит снизить риски неплатежеспособности. / Lending to individuals is one of the main activities of commercial banks that generates income. For the population, loans are one of the possible ways to improve their standard of living, for example, by buying real estate. The relevance of the research topic is due to the fact that every year the demand of individuals for bank loans is increasing, competition in the market among credit institutions is growing, which causes the necessary changes in the credit system of the entire country. Scientific novelty of the work: 1) A more accurate interpretation of the definition of overdue debt (problem) for a consumer loan is proposed, which allows linking the concept of problem debt on a loan with a high level of financial losses in the bank with improper service of the borrower, which is often associated with a deterioration in the financial situation of the borrower. 2) It was proposed to improve the system for assessing the solvency of borrowers by introducing psychoscoring (taking into account the requirements of the law on the protection of personal data), which will allow to form a holistic portrait in terms of solvency. 3) It was proposed to improve the mechanism of comprehensive customer service by connecting an overdraft and choosing the calculation of a monthly payment by the customer, which will reduce the risks of insolvency.

保險公司清償能力一直是保險監理的重心，在所有現行的制度中風險基礎資本是最重要的，但此項制度仍有其缺點，因此其他動態分析模型被許多學者所提出，如涉險值及情境分析。雖然這些動態分析模型被學者所偏好，但監理機關仍須對這些模型的精確程度加以了解，這也是本篇論文所要研究的目的。 基於此，本篇論文以模擬方式及經濟模型加以分析風險基礎資本、情境分析及涉險值等方法的破產預測的相對精確性。其中風險基礎資本完全採用現有NAIC的年報資料，情境分析及涉險值則採用我們所建立的模型，基於此也可以確認現有監理制度是否有缺失。 我們的結果發現風險基礎資本的預測能力很低，動態模型-情境分析及涉險值皆優於風險基礎資本，且在不同動態模型中涉險值的預測能力較好。因此可知被學者所偏好的動態分析模型應是未來保險監理的方向希望藉由本篇提供監理機關一個參考的依據。 / Solvency prediction of insurers has been the focus of insurance regulation. Among the solvency regulation systems, risked-based capital (RBC) is the most important but RBC still has some drawbacks. Thus, the dynamic financial analyses-scenario analysis and Value at Risk have been developed to be the regulation tool. Although, the scholars prefer the dynamic financial analysis, the regulators still want to make sure the accuracy of dynamic financial analysis. That is the purpose of our paper. Therefore, we use the simulation result and the econometric model to analyze the relative effectiveness of RBC, scenario and Value at Risk (VaR). The RBC is from the annual statement and the scenario and VaR come from our simulation model. Our result shows that the RBC has very low explanatory power, the dynamic financial analysis is better than RBC, and VaR outperform scenario analysis. Thus, we conclude that VaR is the way to go for property-casualty insurance regulators.

Solvency II is the new European Union (EU) legislation which will replace the capital adequacy regime for the insurance industry. Considering that the banking sector has experienced a similar change through the different Basel Accords (Basel), there is an opportunity for the insurance industry before The results indicate similar distortions between developing countries while the major driver behind the cost of capital for developing countries is equity market volatility, and not credit risk as might have been expected. Finally, the fourth research problem relates to another objective of financial regulations: to reflect the risks that financial institutions face. The risk sensitivities of economic and regulatory capital for credit risk are investigated empirically using a dynamic optimisation model in one of the first studies of its kind. Results show that economic capital is a superior risk measure to regulatory capital from a systemic- and institution-specific risk perspective. This, along with calls to strengthen Pillar 2 disciplines following the financial crisis, leads to a suggestion that economic capital could be considered as a Pillar 1 capital requirement, replacing the current forms of Pillar 1 regulatory capital. the implementation of Solvency II to learn from the weaknesses and shortcomings in Basel to ensure that the design of Solvency II will, as far as possible, compensate for these. The financial crisis of 2007 to 2010 highlighted certain weaknesses and shortcomings of Basel and there is accordingly an opportunity for the insurance industry to learn from these deficiencies and to strengthen Solvency II to help prevent similar events in the insurance industry. This thesis investigates these weaknesses in Basel in an attempt to determine the extent to which these are inherently included in Solvency II. The first research problem of this thesis examines these weaknesses in Basel and relates them back to Solvency II to determine which, and to what extent, some of them may have been included in Solvency II. The second research problem leads from the first and critically explores an objective of financial regulations, namely to provide financial institutions with equal competitive conditions (the so-called ‘level playing field’) from a regulatory perspective. To achieve this objective, there is an implicit assumption that the cost of capital between countries is equal. Investigation into the cost of capital between both developed and developing countries using a modified weighted average cost of capital model indicates that the cost of capital between developed and developing countries differs and that regulations based on capital requirements tend to favour developed countries. This means that current financial regulations cannot achieve this objective as intended. The third research problem investigates the cost of capital between various developing countries to determine firstly whether similar competitive distortions exist among such countries, while secondly exploring the drivers behind the cost of capital in such countries through linear regression analyses. / PhD (Risk Management), North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2013

Solvency II is the new European Union (EU) legislation which will replace the capital adequacy regime for the insurance industry. Considering that the banking sector has experienced a similar change through the different Basel Accords (Basel), there is an opportunity for the insurance industry before The results indicate similar distortions between developing countries while the major driver behind the cost of capital for developing countries is equity market volatility, and not credit risk as might have been expected. Finally, the fourth research problem relates to another objective of financial regulations: to reflect the risks that financial institutions face. The risk sensitivities of economic and regulatory capital for credit risk are investigated empirically using a dynamic optimisation model in one of the first studies of its kind. Results show that economic capital is a superior risk measure to regulatory capital from a systemic- and institution-specific risk perspective. This, along with calls to strengthen Pillar 2 disciplines following the financial crisis, leads to a suggestion that economic capital could be considered as a Pillar 1 capital requirement, replacing the current forms of Pillar 1 regulatory capital. the implementation of Solvency II to learn from the weaknesses and shortcomings in Basel to ensure that the design of Solvency II will, as far as possible, compensate for these. The financial crisis of 2007 to 2010 highlighted certain weaknesses and shortcomings of Basel and there is accordingly an opportunity for the insurance industry to learn from these deficiencies and to strengthen Solvency II to help prevent similar events in the insurance industry. This thesis investigates these weaknesses in Basel in an attempt to determine the extent to which these are inherently included in Solvency II. The first research problem of this thesis examines these weaknesses in Basel and relates them back to Solvency II to determine which, and to what extent, some of them may have been included in Solvency II. The second research problem leads from the first and critically explores an objective of financial regulations, namely to provide financial institutions with equal competitive conditions (the so-called ‘level playing field’) from a regulatory perspective. To achieve this objective, there is an implicit assumption that the cost of capital between countries is equal. Investigation into the cost of capital between both developed and developing countries using a modified weighted average cost of capital model indicates that the cost of capital between developed and developing countries differs and that regulations based on capital requirements tend to favour developed countries. This means that current financial regulations cannot achieve this objective as intended. The third research problem investigates the cost of capital between various developing countries to determine firstly whether similar competitive distortions exist among such countries, while secondly exploring the drivers behind the cost of capital in such countries through linear regression analyses. / PhD (Risk Management), North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2013

Notre intérêt dans cette thèse est de combiner les différentes techniques de mesure du risque opérationnel dans les secteurs financiers, et on s'intéresse plus particulièrement aux conséquences du risque d'estimation dans les modèles, qui est un risque opérationnel particulier. Nous allons présenter les concepts mathématiques et actuariels associés ainsi qu'une application numérique en ce qui concerne l'approche de mesure avancée comme Loss Distribution pour calculer l'exigence en capital. En plus, on se concentre sur le risque d'estimation illustré avec l'analyse des scénarios de l'opinion d'experts en conjonction avec des données de pertes internes pour évaluer notre exposition aux évènements de gravité. Nous concluons cette première partie en définissant une technique de mise l'échelle sur la base de (MCO) qui nous permet de normaliser nos données externes à une banque locale Libanaise.Dans la deuxième partie, on donne de l'importance sur la mesure de l'erreur induite sur le SCR par l'erreur d'estimation des paramètres, on propose une méthode alternative pour estimer une courbe de taux et on termine par attirer l'attention sur les réflexions autour des hypothèses de calcul et ce que l'on convient de qualifier d'hypothèse "cohérente avec les valeurs de marché" serait bien plus pertinente et efficace que la complexification du modèle, source d'instabilité supplémentaire, ainsi mettre en évidence le risque d'estimation qui est lié au risque opérationnel et doit être accordé beaucoup plus d'attention dans nos modèles de travail / Our interest in this thesis is first to combine the different measurement techniques for operational risk in financial companies, and we highlight more and more the consequences of estimation risk which is treated as a particular part of operational risk. In the first part, we will present a full overview of operational risk, from the regulatory laws and regulations to the associated mathematical and actuarial concepts as well as a numerical application regarding the Advanced Measurement Approach, like Loss Distribution to calculate the capital requirement, then applying the Extreme Value Theory. We conclude this first part by setting a scaling technique based on (OLS) enabling us to normalize our external data to a local Lebanese Bank. On the second part, we feature estimation risk by first measuring the error induced on the SCR by the estimation error of the parameters, to having an alternative yield curve estimation and finishing by calling attention to the reflections on assumptions of the calculation instead of focusing on the so called hypothesis "consistent with market values", would be more appropriate and effective than to complicate models and generate additional errors and instability. Chapters in this part illustrate the estimation risk in its different aspects which is a part of operational risk, highlighting as so the attention that should be given in treating our models

Made available in DSpace on 2016-04-25T18:39:47Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Victor Hugo Cesar Bagnati.pdf: 1219433 bytes, checksum: b1d30c6fdd4234bf373df016384348e4 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2012-05-17 / The purpose of this paper is to analyze the changes in IFRS4 as proposed by IASB and to make a contribution in the discussions about the challenges for implementing it in Brazil. An insurance company is a financial entity, picking up, in advance, resources from the public against future guarantee. On the other side, similar risks affecting banks also threatens insurance companies. Due to the role of banking activities in the economy, operational and solvency rules were established for financial entities based on enterprise risk management approach, there are the rules of Basel I and II. Similar requirements guided the insurance market, the so called Solvency I and II. At the same time, international organizations have been up-dating the accounting principles and the financial reports to the new dynamic and new financial instruments, so in 2008, the IASB published the consolidated standards, IFRS, including rules for insurance contracts accounting. Actions already taken and forthcoming are implemented in world scale, no more solely in one country, is the globalization of accounting principles. The implementation of IRFS4 has also other advantages as to facilitate the comparison of financial situation between Brazilian companies and also to other markets. The Brazilian Commissioner SUSEP, had been following the international practice, introducing them, gradually, in the Brazilian Insurance Market. According the opinions of specialist in these matters, recently interviewed, and as result of the interpretation of their comments, the new rules will, no doubt, will impact in company reporting both from the qualitative and quantitative points of view. About the qualitative side, are strong expectations that future financial reports, prepared under new accounting rules allows the users of the information to clearly understand the type of risks underwrites by the entities. While, from the quantitative side, valuation of assets and liabilities, based on concepts of fair value and present value of future cash flows, will impact in the calculation of the net worth, and consequently in the solvency of the entity. If the new accounting rules for insurance contracts issued by SUSEP, following most of the CPC11, demonstrates the difficulties to implement some concepts, as an example, the reporting of reinsurance operations, surely, the phase II of IFRS4 will bring to the market more troubles. On the other side, according the same experts, to achieve satisfactory results it will be necessary that, both actuaries and accountants, working hard together, in order to understand and apply the accounting rules in a correct way / O presente trabalho tem por objetivos analisar a proposta do IASB de alteração do pronunciamento IFRS4 e contribuir para a discussão dos principais desafios para a sua aplicação no Brasil. Uma entidade seguradora é uma instituição financeira, captando recursos dos clientes em troca de uma garantia futura, de modo que, essas entidades estão sujeitas a riscos semelhantes aos que ameaçam os bancos. Devido à importância da atividade bancária na economia foram estabelecidas normas operacionais e de solvência para essas entidades, com foco na gestão de riscos (ERM), são as chamadas regras Basiléia I e II. As seguradoras são alcançadas por regras similares: Solvência I e II. Em paralelo, os órgãos contábeis internacionais foram adaptando os princípios e as demonstrações à nova dinâmica do mercado e aos novos instrumentos financeiros, assim sendo, em 2008, o IASB publica o texto consolidado das IFRS, com regras para contabilização dos contratos de seguros, dentre outros itens. Todas as ações realizadas e as que estão por vir o são em escala mundial, já não mais são exclusivamente de um país ou realizadas de forma isolada: é a globalização da informação contábil. É claro que a adoção pelo Brasil das regras IFRS, facilitará a comparação da situação patrimonial e dos resultados não só entre as entidades locais, como também com outros mercados seguradores. No mercado segurador brasileiro, a Superintendência de Seguros Privados vem acompanhando as normas internacionais, incorporando-as, gradualmente, às práticas locais. Como é evidenciado através da pesquisa realizada, e com mais clareza, pela leitura e interpretação das entrevistas com especialistas nesta matéria, as novas regras terão, sem dúvida, impacto significativo nas demonstrações contábeis tanto do ponto de vista qualitativo quanto do ponto de vista quantitativo. No que diz respeito a qualidade, a expectativa é que as futuras demonstrações contábeis sejam mais esclarecedoras para os usuários dessa informação, no que diz respeito a divulgação dos riscos assumidos pelas entidades. Pelo lado quantitativo, a avaliação dos ativos financeiros e dos passivos da operação, com base no valor justo e o valor presente dos fluxos futuros, impactarão no patrimônio líquido das entidades e consequentemente na determinação da sua solvência. Se a norma contábil da Superintendência, que adota grande parte do pronunciamento CPC nº 11, sobre contratos de seguros, cujo cumprimento é exigido a partir de 2011, mostrou as dificuldades da aplicação de alguns conceitos, como por exemplo, o da apresentação da operação de resseguro, imagina-se que a futura norma, provavelmente bem próxima ao IFRS4 (fase II) vai trazer maiores dificuldades. Entretanto, em opinião dos especialistas que participaram das entrevistas, para alcançar resultados satisfatórios, será necessário que atuários e contadores se preparem de forma coordenada, no intuito de poder interpreta-las e aplica-las corretamente

The diploma thesis summarizes the history of the insurance industry in the world with a detailed focus on the Czech Republic. The thesis continues to discuss the situation on insurance markets in the last twenty years. It is described how insurance companies deal with natural disasters and a new type of risk - terorism. The thesis proceeds with actual trends in the insurance industry and supervision in insurance.

<p>Основни циљ истраживања у раду представља утврђивање функционалности бонитета у одређивању тржишних цена акција емитената пољопривредног-прехрамбеног сектора у Србији који су укључени на одређен сегмент тржишта Београдске берзе а.д. Београд. Превасходни циљ истраживања је да се утврди каква је међузависност бонитета и метода фундаменталне и техничке анализе цена акција пољопривредно-прехрамбеног сектора у Републици Србији, да се критички сагледају, утврде слабости и предности и да се на основу тога предложе одговарајућа решења, пре свега у смислу како бонитет утиче на тржишне цене акција. Наведено истраживање треба да представља основу за доношење правилних одлука, приликом инвестирања у акције емитената пољопривредно-прехрамбеног сектора. Полазне основе у истраживању представљају финансијски извештаји и показатељи емитената пољоприведно прехрамбеног сектора.<br />Утицај бонитета на тржишне цене акција емитената пољопривредно прехрамбеног сектора утврђена је применом дескриптивне статистике и логистичке регресије. На основу добијених резултата дескриптивне статистике и логистичке регресије за факторе на нивоу значајности 0,05 и 0,01, установљено је да бонитет нема пресудан утицај у одређивању тржишних цена акција, што указује на то да остварени финансијски показатељи и резултати немају утицај на тржишне цене акција. Наведено указује да велики утицај на тржишне цене акција имају макро фактори економског, политичког и друштвеног окружења. Са друге стране добијени резултати указује да бонитет предузећа може да пружи значајне информације приликом предвиђања пада или стагнације цена акција.</p> / <p>Osnovni cilj istraživanja u radu predstavlja utvrđivanje funkcionalnosti boniteta u određivanju tržišnih cena akcija emitenata poljoprivrednog-prehrambenog sektora u Srbiji koji su uključeni na određen segment tržišta Beogradske berze a.d. Beograd. Prevashodni cilj istraživanja je da se utvrdi kakva je međuzavisnost boniteta i metoda fundamentalne i tehničke analize cena akcija poljoprivredno-prehrambenog sektora u Republici Srbiji, da se kritički sagledaju, utvrde slabosti i prednosti i da se na osnovu toga predlože odgovarajuća rešenja, pre svega u smislu kako bonitet utiče na tržišne cene akcija. Navedeno istraživanje treba da predstavlja osnovu za donošenje pravilnih odluka, prilikom investiranja u akcije emitenata poljoprivredno-prehrambenog sektora. Polazne osnove u istraživanju predstavljaju finansijski izveštaji i pokazatelji emitenata poljoprivedno prehrambenog sektora.<br />Uticaj boniteta na tržišne cene akcija emitenata poljoprivredno prehrambenog sektora utvrđena je primenom deskriptivne statistike i logističke regresije. Na osnovu dobijenih rezultata deskriptivne statistike i logističke regresije za faktore na nivou značajnosti 0,05 i 0,01, ustanovljeno je da bonitet nema presudan uticaj u određivanju tržišnih cena akcija, što ukazuje na to da ostvareni finansijski pokazatelji i rezultati nemaju uticaj na tržišne cene akcija. Navedeno ukazuje da veliki uticaj na tržišne cene akcija imaju makro faktori ekonomskog, političkog i društvenog okruženja. Sa druge strane dobijeni rezultati ukazuje da bonitet preduzeća može da pruži značajne informacije prilikom predviđanja pada ili stagnacije cena akcija.</p> / <p>The main objective of the research work is determining the functionality of solvency in determining the market price of shares of the issuers of the agricultural and food sector in Serbia who are involved in a particular segment of the market of the Belgrade Stock Exchange ad Belgrade. The primary goal of the research is to determine what is the interdependence of solvency and methods of fundamental and technical analysis of share prices of agri-food sector in the Republic of Serbia, to critically analyze, identify weaknesses and strengths and that on that basis propose appropriate solutions, especially in terms of how worthiness affects the market price of the shares. The study should be the basis for making the right decisions when investing in shares of issuers agri-food sector. Baseline research are the financial statements of issuers and indicators for agricultural production and food sectors.<br />Influence of solvency on the market price of shares of issuers agri-food sector was assessed by descriptive statistics and logistic regression. Based on the results of descriptive statistics and logistic regression for factors at the significance level of 0.05 and 0.01, it was found that creditworthiness has no influence in determining the market price of shares, indicating that achieved financial indicators and results have uicaj the market price of shares. The above indicates that a large impact on the market price of shares have the macro factors of economic, political and social environment. On the other hand, the results indicate that the creditworthiness of companies may provide important information in predicting the decline or stagnation of share prices.</p>

Dans le secteur de l’assurance, les dernières évolutions règlementaires et des normes comptables vont dans le sens de la standardisation de la gestion des risques au sein des organismes. Dans ce contexte, l’objectif principal de ma thèse est de proposer différentes méthodologies d’évaluation et d’analyse des risques dans ce secteur. La première partie de ce manuscrit traite de la problématique de provisionnement individuel en non-vie. Je propose des adaptions d’algorithmes d’apprentissage automatique ensemblistes et de certaines métriques de performance pour l’estimation des durées des sinistres ainsi que des charges sinistres ultimes en présence de don-nées censurées à droite. L’application de ces méthodes à des données réelles de contrats de prêts ou de contrats de prévoyance collective conduit à des estimations plus performantes et plus robustes des paramètres considérés. La deuxième partie présente une approche d’estimation de choc à un an sur des paramètres spécifiques à l’entité (Undertaking Specific Parameters) du module santé assimilable la vie du pilier 1 de la formule standard de la norme Solvabilité II. L’utilisation de la crédibilité américaine (ou crédibilité à variation limitée) permet la prise en compte partielle des contraintes de disponibilité des données d’expérience (volumétrie et profondeur d’historique) lors du calibrage des chocs. A titre d’illustration, j’ai appliqué cette approche aux risques d’incidence et de maintien (ou de rétablissement) des garanties d’incapacité et d’invalidité en arrêt de travail d’un portefeuille de contrats de prêts. Les résultats obtenus montrent des baisses significatives des be-soins de capitaux de solvabilité requis (SCR) du risque de souscription par rapport à la formule standard. La troisième partie est une étude descriptive des calculs de la formule standard pour l’évaluation du besoin de fonds propres économiques du risque de dépendance. Elle permet de mettre en évidence les insuffisances de la norme et de proposer des pistes d’améliorations en vue d’une meilleure prise en compte des spécificités de ce risque. Enfin, dans la dernière partie du manuscrit, je propose une étude comparative des préférences d’attitudes face au risque dans le secteur financier, notamment la banque et l’assurance. Il s’agit d’une analyse empirique menée dans trois zones géographiques (Amérique, Europe et Afrique) afin de mesurer les liens et les différences entre les profils d’attitude face au risque et certaines variables sociodémographiques / In the insurance sector, the latest regulatory developments and accounting standards are in line with the standardization of risk management within organizations. In this context, the main objec-tive of my thesis is to propose different methodologies for risk evaluation and analysis in this sec-tor. The first part of this manuscript deals with the problem of individual non-life reserving. I pro-posed adaptations of machine learning algorithms and some performance metrics for the estima-tion of the durations of the claims as well as the ultimate claims in the presence of right censored data. The application of these methods to property and consumer loans insurance contracts or group protection contracts leads to better and more robust estimates of the parameters consid-ered. The second part presents a one-year shock estimation approach on entity-specific parame-ters (Undertaking Specific Parameters) of the life-sustaining health module of Pillar 1 of the Solven-cy II standard formula. The use of American credibility (or limited variation credibility) allows partial consideration of the availability constraints of data (volume and historical depth of data) when calibrating shocks. By way of illustration, I applied this approach to incidence and recovery (or non-recovery) of incapacity and disability risks. The results obtained show significant decreases in sol-vency capital requirements (SCR) of underwriting risk need compared to the standard formula cal-culation. The third part is a descriptive study of the calculations of the standard formula for eco-nomic solvency capital need of long term care risk. The main purpose is to highlight the inadequa-cies of the standard formula and to suggest ways of improving them in order to better take into account the specificities of this risk. Finally, in the last part of the manuscript, I proposed a compar-ative study of risk attitude preferences in the financial sector, including banking and insurance. This is an empirical analysis conducted in three geographical areas (America, Europe and Africa) to measure the links and differences between risk attitude profiles and sociodemographic variables

Our interest in this thesis is first to combine the different measurement techniques for operational risk in financial companies, and we highlight more and more the consequences of estimation risk which is treated as a particular part of operational risk. In the first part, we will present a full overview of operational risk, from the regulatory laws and regulations to the associated mathematical and actuarial concepts as well as a numerical application regarding the Advanced Measurement Approach, like Loss Distribution to calculate the capital requirement, then applying the Extreme Value Theory. We conclude this first part by setting a scaling technique based on (OLS) enabling us to normalize our external data to a local Lebanese Bank. On the second part, we feature estimation risk by first measuring the error induced on the SCR by the estimation error of the parameters, to having an alternative yield curve estimation and finishing by calling attention to the reflections on assumptions of the calculation instead of focusing on the so called hypothesis "consistent with market values", would be more appropriate and effective than to complicate models and generate additional errors and instability. Chapters in this part illustrate the estimation risk in its different aspects which is a part of operational risk, highlighting as so the attention that should be given in treating our models