Includes abstract. Includes bibliographical references.

This paper uses the panel data of 11 OECD countries over a period from 1971 to 2006. Unlike the traditional cointegration model which omitted the impact of structural breaks in the analysis, this paper applies panel cointegration with structural break test proposed by Westerlund (2006), panel unit root test, and panel dynamic OLS test. The empirical results indicate that health care expenditure and economic growth (GDP per capita) are non-stationary in the series; and between the two variables, a long-term cointegration relationship exists. Moreover, a positive correlation between HCE and economic growth is found in the panel dynamic OLS model. The researcher concludes that investing in health capital improves human capital and that boosts economic growth in the sample countries, and vice versa. More importantly, allowing structural breaks in the cointegration analysis obtains reliability in the estimation and proves more detailed and specific information on the consequence of the momentous events on the two variables; and thus enables policy makers and health economists to propose more effective strategies.

Resulting from the deregulation and prosperity of the economic and financial sectors in Asia during 1980s, a significant increase in cross-bordered financial transactions ultimately accelerated the region of Southeast Asia to be on a process of financial integration and consequently diminished opportunities for portfolio diversification. Financial Integration is a multidimensional process through which allocation of financial assets becomes lastly borderless. This purpose of this paper is to examine a progress thus far in capital market integration or preferentially, the co-movement of the equity markets between the U.S. and the Southeast Asian nations: Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines by employing the methodology of Gregory and Hansen Cointegration and Error Correction Analysis (ECM). The consequence of the U.S. market performance on each Southeast Asian national markets are extensively analyzed by decomposing monthly price-index time series into three distinct sub-periods based on an occurrence of the Subprime Mortgage Financial Crisis in 2007. The results indicate that these four emerging markets had been considerable influenced by the U.S. market performance, regardless of crisis or non-crisis periods. Nevertheless, some countries like Indonesia and the Philippines acted differently during the pre-crisis and crisis sub-periods respectively due to their domestic market infrastructure and regulation adjustment. However, these two markets had eventually turned to share an interdependent long-run relationship with the U.S. equity market since the ending of the Subprime financial downturn. Moreover, this finding suggests that ongoing capital market integration in the Southeast Asian region would mitigate portfolio diversification benefits for investors by virtue of increasing in correlation among securities and assets. Therefore, more exhaustive investigation about equity market integration is significantly beneficial in macroeconomic and financial perspective.

In the doctoral dissertation, we consider problems of testing and estimating changed segment with unknown starting position and duration of epidemic state in the autoregressive first-order model. The proposed tests are based on partial sums of model residuals and model-parameter partial-estimator polygonal line processes. We derive asymptotic results for these processes in Holder spaces. The behavior of test statistics under the null hypothesis of no change and alternative is provided. Empirical power analysis has shown that tests are more powerful when absolute values of model parameter are quite large or autoregressive process changes from a stationary state to a nonstationary one. We prove the consistency of the least square changed-segment estimators and provide their convergence rates. / Disertacijoje nagrinėjamas pirmos eilės autoregresinio modelio pasikeitusio segmento testavimo ir vertinimo uždavinys. Aprašomo modelio epideminio pasikeitimo pradžia ir ilgis nėra žinomi. Pasiūlyti kriterijai pasikeitusio segmento testavimui, kurie pagrįsti modelio paklaidų įvertinių dalinių sumų ir modelio parametro dalinių įvertinių laužčių procesais. Šiems procesams gautos ribinės teoremos Hiolderio erdvėse. Nurodomas testų statistikų ribinis elgesys esant teisingai nulinei ir alternatyviajai hipotezėms. Iš empirinio kriterijų galios tyrimo rezultatų matyti, kad pasiūlytų testų galia didžiausia aptinkant pasikeitimus iš stacionarios būklės į nestacionarią arba esant artimoms vienetui modelio parametro reikšmėms. Taip pat įrodoma, kad mažiausių kvadratų metodu gauti pasikeitusio segmento pradžios ir ilgio įverčiai bei autoregresinio modelio su pasikeitusiu segmentu parametrų įverčiai yra suderintieji bei pateikiamas jų konvergavimo greitis.

Disertacijoje nagrinėjamas pirmos eilės autoregresinio modelio pasikeitusio segmento testavimo ir vertinimo uždavinys. Aprašomo modelio epideminio pasikeitimo pradžia ir ilgis nėra žinomi. Pasiūlyti kriterijai pasikeitusio segmento testavimui, kurie pagrįsti modelio paklaidų įvertinių dalinių sumų ir modelio parametro dalinių įvertinių laužčių procesais. Šiems procesams gautos ribinės teoremos Hiolderio erdvėse. Nurodomas testų statistikų ribinis elgesys esant teisingai nulinei ir alternatyviajai hipotezėms. Iš empirinio kriterijų galios tyrimo rezultatų matyti, kad pasiūlytų testų galia didžiausia aptinkant pasikeitimus iš stacionarios būklės į nestacionarią arba esant artimoms vienetui modelio parametro reikšmėms. Taip pat įrodoma, kad mažiausių kvadratų metodu gauti pasikeitusio segmento pradžios ir ilgio įverčiai bei autoregresinio modelio su pasikeitusiu segmentu parametrų įverčiai yra suderintieji bei pateikiamas jų konvergavimo greitis. / In the doctoral dissertation, we consider problems of testing and estimating changed segment with unknown starting position and duration of epidemic state in the autoregressive first-order model. The proposed tests are based on partial sums of model residuals and model-parameter partial-estimator polygonal line processes. We derive asymptotic results for these processes in Holder spaces. The behavior of test statistics under the null hypothesis of no change and alternative is provided. Empirical power analysis has shown that tests are more powerful when absolute values of model parameter are quite large or autoregressive process changes from a stationary state to a nonstationary one. We prove the consistency of the least square changed-segment estimators and provide their convergence rates.

Using 1,473 going private transactions completed between 1985 and 2007, I assess whether the increase in going private transactions that occurred after the passage of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002 (SOX) was driven by SOX, or whether this phenomenon continues an ongoing historical trend. To examine this issue, I initially used structural break tests and intervention analysis. From the initial techniques, I find support that the passage of SOX increased going private transactions for these categories. Secondarily, I use Granger causality tests and impulse response functions to examine the link between going private transactions and the public stock market. When I categorize going private transactions according to the type of acquirer, transaction size, and target industry, I find bi-directional Granger causality relationships between smaller-sized going private transactions and the S&P 500 Index (or Tobin's Q). I also find several unidirectional Granger causality relationships for some categories of going private transactions, based on the type of acquirer or the target industry, to the S&P 500 Index (or to Tobin's Q). The impulse response of going private transactions (or the public stock market) to a shock in the public stock market (or going private transactions) is not immediate, but is delayed two to three quarters. The link between going private transactions and the public stock market is an ongoing phenomenon, continuing a historical trend for going private transactions. For going private transactions with structural breaks, SOX affects the linkage but not for going private transactions with no structural break.

This paper will employ unit root tests for finding structural breaks endogenously among India’s key macroeconomic aggregate series, as well as their components and subcomponents. The same analysis will be repeated, wherever data are available, for states. The results from these unit root tests will then be used in regression models for national and state level data to understand the causes behind structural breaks. We find that breakpoints cluster around 1982 and 2003 for most series at the national and state level. The services component appears to be a promising candidate for explaining the 2003 structural break in some of the series.

Submitted by Deyse Kaori Numata Ogasavara (deysekaori@gmail.com) on 2016-02-15T17:37:04Z No. of bitstreams: 1 ESTUDO EMPÍRICO DO COMPORTAMENTO DOS DEPÓSITOS DAS INSTITUIÇÕES FINACEIRAS BRASILEIRAS DURANTE A CRISE DE 2008_2.pdf: 1935868 bytes, checksum: 1232d557853d5147456112654d62442e (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Renata de Souza Nascimento (renata.souza@fgv.br) on 2016-02-15T17:42:38Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 ESTUDO EMPÍRICO DO COMPORTAMENTO DOS DEPÓSITOS DAS INSTITUIÇÕES FINACEIRAS BRASILEIRAS DURANTE A CRISE DE 2008_2.pdf: 1935868 bytes, checksum: 1232d557853d5147456112654d62442e (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-02-16T11:26:03Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 ESTUDO EMPÍRICO DO COMPORTAMENTO DOS DEPÓSITOS DAS INSTITUIÇÕES FINACEIRAS BRASILEIRAS DURANTE A CRISE DE 2008_2.pdf: 1935868 bytes, checksum: 1232d557853d5147456112654d62442e (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016 / A motivação do trabalho surgiu dos efeitos causados pela crise imobiliária nos Estados Unidos em 2008, sendo a quebra do banco de investimento 'Lehman Brothers' o estopim para uma série de eventos. No Brasil, os efeitos foram diversos, o presente trabalho se aprofundou nos efeitos sobre as captações, analisando se houve uma corrida bancária dos pequenos e médios bancos para os grandes. Este estudo foi feito por meio da análise de quebra estrutural baseada nos testes OLS Cusum introduzido por Ploberger e Kramer (1992) e Teste F por Chow (1960), bem como por meio da análise de dados em painel, utilizando as metodologias de análise de cluster e o modelo de efeitos fixos. De um modo geral, os nossos resultados demonstram que efetivamente ocorreu uma transferência massiva de recursos dos pequenos e médios bancos para os grandes. / The main motivation has come with the global financial crisis in 2008, being the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers the start of a serial of events. In Brazil, there were many effects, it focused on the effect upon the funding sources, it was analyzed if there was a bank run from the small and middle banks to the major banks. This study was done by means of a structural break analysis based on OLS Cusum test introduced by Ploberger and Kramer (1992) and the F test by Chow (1960), as well as the panel data, making use of the cluster analysis and the fixed-effects model. In general, our results show that actually occurred a massive transfer of resources from small and middles banks to the large ones.

Made available in DSpace on 2010-04-20T20:59:59Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 4 Regis Augusto Hideshi Abe.pdf.jpg: 2223 bytes, checksum: 2854124c57e695ce52bf460970864c3c (MD5) Regis Augusto Hideshi Abe.pdf.txt: 62572 bytes, checksum: 862464582587bd7801be3830258789c6 (MD5) license.txt: 4712 bytes, checksum: 4dea6f7333914d9740702a2deb2db217 (MD5) Regis Augusto Hideshi Abe.pdf: 232796 bytes, checksum: c10e5a8ac8150a214101dc62b3f6cff2 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2010-01-27T00:00:00Z / A teoria de consumo indica que os indivíduos maximizam sua utilidade se suavizarem o consumo ao longo da vida. Manter o consumo constante seria melhor que se sujeitar à instabilidade. Entretanto a maior parte dos testes realizados com informações brasileiras contraria esta hipótese. Este trabalho apresenta resultados diferentes, com indícios de suavização do consumo em um período recente. Para a realização deste trabalho, foram utilizados dados nacionais extraídos do site do IPEA (IPEADATA), onde estão disponíveis séries de consumo, renda, juros, crédito, assim como deflatores. As séries foram tratadas de maneira a se padronizarem como trimestrais, incorporando o período entre primeiro trimestre de 1991 e o segundo trimestre de 2009. Com o auxílio de técnica de estimação de quebras estruturais, ficaram evidentes os momentos em que as séries macroeconômicas tiveram mudanças significativas. Desta maneira, o histórico de informações foi subdividido conforme o panorama econômico. Cada período deste histórico foi submetido a um processo de estimação de crescimento de consumo a partir de crescimento de renda, juros e crescimento de crédito. A teoria de suavização do consumo sugere que a estimação deveria resultar em estimativas não significantes, pois o consumo não estaria atrelado ao acesso ao credito ou variações temporárias da renda. O que se verificou foi que em um histórico mais distante, os resultados foram bastante parecidos com resultados observados em bibliografia. Entretanto, em um período mais recente o consumo estaria se desvencilhando da renda e do crédito. Isto sugere que a suavização do consumo pode estar se concretizando no Brasil. / Consumption theory suggests that individuals maximize their utility to smooth their consumption along their lives. Constant consumption would be better than instability. However most of the tests performed with Brazilian information contradict this hypothesis. This study presents different results, with evidence of consumption smoothing in a recent period. Brazilian data has been used in this study. Consumption, income, interest, credit and deflators have been extracted from the IPEA site (IPEADATA). Those series were standardized in a quarterly basis, comprehending the period from the first quarter of 1991 until the second quarter of 2009. By estimating structural breaks, it was possible to highlight what were the moments subjected to significant changes in economy. Thus, the historical data was divided according to the economic outlook. Each period of history has undergone a process of estimation of consumption growth on income growth, interest and credit growth. The theory of consumption smoothing assumes that the result estimates should not be significant, because the consumer would not be restricted to credit or temporary fluctuations in income. Results tell that in a further past, conclusions were very similar to literature. However, in a more recent period, consumption would be becoming independent of income and credit. This suggests that consumption smoothing may be becoming a reality in Brazil.

The application of different unit root statistics is by now a standard practice in empirical work. Even when it is a practical issue, these statistics have complex nonstandard distributions depending on functionals of certain stochastic processes, and their derivations represent a barrier even for many theoretical econometricians. These derivations are based on rigorous and fundamental statistical tools which are not (very) well known by standard econometricians. This paper aims to fill this gap by explaining in a simple way one of these fundamental tools: namely, the Functional Central Limit Theorem. To this end, this paper analyzes the foundations and applicability of two versions of the Functional Central Limit Theorem within the framework of a unit root with a structural break. Initial attention is focused on the probabilistic structure of the time series to be considered. Thereafter, attention is focused on the asymptotic theory for nonstationary time series proposed by Phillips (1987a), which is applied by Perron (1989) to study the effects of an (assumed) exogenous structural break on the power of the augmented Dickey-Fuller test and by Zivot and Andrews (1992) to criticize the exogeneity assumption and propose a method for estimating an endogenous breakpoint. A systematic method for dealing with efficiency issues is introduced by Perron and Rodriguez (2003), which extends the Generalized Least Squares detrending approach due to Elliot et al. (1996). An empirical application is provided. / Hoy en día es una práctica estándar de trabajo empírico la aplicación de diferentes estadísticos de contraste de raíz unitaria. A pesar de ser un aspecto práctico, estos estadísticos poseen distribuciones complejas y no estándar que dependen de funcionales de ciertos procesos estocásticos y sus derivaciones representan una barrera incluso para varios econometristas teóricos. Estas derivaciones están basadas en herramientas estadísticas fundamentales y rigurosas que no son (muy) bien conocidas por econometristas estándar. El presente artículo completa esta brecha al explicar en una forma simple una de estas herramientas fundamentales la cual es el Teorema del Límite Central Funcional. Por lo tanto, este documento analiza los fundamentos y la aplicabilidad de dos versiones del Teorema del Límite Central Funcional dentro del marco de una raíz unitaria con un quiebre estructural. La atención inicial se centra en la estructura probabilística de las series de tiempo propuesta por Phillips (1987a), la cual es aplicada por Perron (1989) para estudiar los efectos de un quiebre estructural (asumido) exógeno sobre la potencia de las pruebas Dickey-Fuller aumentadas y por Zivot y Andrews (1992) para criticar el supuesto de exogeneidad y proponer un método para estimar un punto de quiebre endógeno. Un método sistemático para tratar con aspectos de eficiencia es introducido por Perron y Rodríguez (2003), el cual extiende el enfoque de Mínimos Cuadrados Generalizados para eliminar los componentes determinísticos de Elliot et al. (1996). Se presenta además una aplicación empírica.