This thesis project investigates the state-of-the-art in traffic management "Green Light Optimal Speed Advisory (GLOSA)" for vehicles in a smart city. GLOSA utilizes infrastructure and vehicles communication through using current signal plan settings and updated vehicular information in order to influence the intersection approach speeds. The project involves traffic microscopic simulations for a mixed traffic environment of conventional and automated vehicles (AVs) both connected to the intersection control and guided by a speed advisory traffic management system. Among the project goals is to assess the effects on traffic performance when human drivers comply to the speed advice. The GLOSA management approach is accessed for its potential to improve traffic efficiency in a full market penetration of connected AVs with absolute compliance. The project also aims to determine the possible outcome resulting from enhancing the AVs capabilities such as implementing short time headways between vehicles in the future.  The best traffic performance results achieved by operating GLOSA goes for connected AVs with the lowest simulated time headway (0.3 sec). The waiting time reduction reaches 95% and trip delay lessens to 88 %.

A confiabilidade do tempo de viagem é atualmente considerada como um fator de elevada importância nos estudos de demanda por transportes, com base no reconhecimento que sistemas congestionados são uma realidade inevitável nos grandes centros urbanos, gerando incertezas nas estimativas do tempo de viagem e tornando sua representação através de uma variável de tempo médio excessivamente simplista. O acesso terrestre aos aeroportos em São Paulo constitui um contexto interessante para o estudo da confiabilidade, considerando os altos custos atribuídos à eventual perda do voo e o ambiente de alta variabilidade de tempos de viagem na região. O estudo da confiabilidade do tempo de viagem tem sido em geral desenvolvido com um enfoque exclusivamente quantitativo, usando modelos matemáticos que se baseiam em teorias de maximização da utilidade estimados a partir de dados de preferência declarada. Em geral, são ignorados: (i) os efeitos de fatores latentes no comportamento, (ii) o fato de que o comportamento nem sempre reflete as intenções, (iii) a complexidade dos fatores envolvidos nas escolhas e (iv) os fatores que descrevem o contexto em que ocorre a decisão. O trabalho utiliza métodos mistos para a coleta e análise dos dados, procurando obter um conjunto abrangente de informações sobre o comportamento. Tanto a coleta de dados como os modelos estimados baseiam-se nos fundamentos da Teoria do Comportamento Planejado, que afirma que o comportamento revelado pode ser estimado a partir de uma intenção que, por sua vez, pode ser estimada a partir de atitudes, normas subjetivas e controle percebido. O controle percebido representa a percepção individual quanto à facilidade em desempenhar um comportamento. Neste estudo, a confiabilidade do tempo de viagem é incluída como um fator de controle percebido, assim como outros indicadores de controle não comumente considerados. A análise é conduzida usando-se uma técnica de Modelos de Equações Estruturais denominada Mínimos Quadrados Parciais. O uso desta técnica permitiu uma descrição abrangente dos mecanismos envolvidos no processo de escolha de acesso terrestre ao aeroporto e confirmou a importância dos fatores latentes na escolha, particularmente os relacionados ao controle percebido e real. Foi possível também verificar que conjuntos distintos de fatores influenciam a formação da intenção (e portanto a preferência declarada) e o comportamento propriamente dito (e portanto o comportamento revelado). / Travel time reliability is now considered a major factor in explaining travel demand since its underlying cause congestion seems to be an unavoidable reality in large urban centers. This brings uncertainty to travel time estimates, rendering its representation through travel time averages excessively simplistic. Ground access to airports serving the city of São Paulo makes an interesting context to study reliability, given the considerable annoyance and cost associated with the possibility of missing a flight and the high variability of travel times prevailing in the area. Studies of the reliability of travel time have generally been based on a purely quantitative approach, using utility-based mathematical models, mostly estimated with stated preference data. They usually ignore: (i) the effects of latent factors on behavior, (ii) the fact that behavior does not always reflect intentions, (iii) the complexity of factors involved in choice processes and (iv) the factors describing the choice context. This study uses mixed methods for data collection and analysis, aiming to gather a comprehensive set of information about behavior. Both data collection and modeling are based on the Theory of Planned Behavior, which states that behavior can be predicted from intention; intention, by its turn, can be predicted from attitudes, subjective norms and perceived behavioral control. The latter refers to peoples perception of the ease or difficulty of performing the behavior of interest. In this study, we include travel time reliability as a perceived behavioral control factor, in addition to other indicators of control that are not commonly considered. Analysis is conducted using Partial Least Squares, a technique from the family of Structural Equations Models. The use of this technique allowed for a more complete description of the mechanisms involved in the choice process of ground access to airports and confirmed the importance of latent factors on choice, particularly those related to perceived and actual control. The results also indicate that different sets of factors affect the formation of intention (and thus the stated choice) and the behavior itself (and thus actual behavior).

This thesis examines the marginal cost of congested travel to a variety of businesses by observing time spent in congestion and estimating excess labor costs based upon the relevant value of time. The fleets in the scoping study represented commercial deliveries of goods and services, government agencies, and transit systems. Observations on limited-access expressways within the 13-county Atlanta metropolitan region were used in the analysis. Vehicles were monitored by using a passive GPS assembly that transmitted speed and location data in real-time to an off-site location. Installation and operation during the observation period required no interaction from the driver. Over 217 hours of good freeway movement during 354 vehicle-days was recorded. Rates of delay, expressed as a unit of lost minutes per mile traveled, were calculated by taking the difference in speeds observed during congestion from an optimal free-flow speed of 45 mph and dividing that by the distance traveled per segment. The difference between the 50th and 95th percentile delay rates was used as the measure for travel unreliability. Daily average values of extra time needed per fleet vehicle to ensure on-time arrivals were derived, and the median buffer across all fleets was 1.65 hours of added time per vehicle. Weekly marginal costs per fleet vehicle were estimated by factoring in the corresponding driver wages or hourly operation costs (for transit fleets). Equivalent toll rates were calculated by multiplying the 95th percentile delay rate by the hourly costs. The equivalent toll per mile traveled was representative of an equal relationship between the marginal costs of congestion experienced and a hypothetical state of free-flow travel (under first-best rules of marginal cost pricing). The median equivalent toll rates across all fleets was $0.43 per mile for weekday mornings, $0.13 per mile for midday weekdays, $0.53 per mile for afternoon weekdays and $0.01 per mile for weekday nights and weekends.

A presente dissertação traz a questão da aderência de viagens de veículos em monitoramentos inteligentes com sistemas Automatic Vehicle Location (AVL) que operam em rotas rodoviárias. Uma viagem é considerada como uma série de \"passadas\", que correspondem ao tempo em que o veículo está em movimento, mas excluindo os tempos gastos em paradas para atividades como carregamento/descarregamento entre outras. A partir de dados históricos coletados via Global Positioning System (GPS) pelo sistema AVL, uma metodologia de filtragem e aplicações estatísticas para geração das passadas é apresentada. Além disso, são propostos métodos para geração de padrões de viagem de referência, baseados em tempos de viagem e velocidades, desvios padrões, locais de descontinuidades entre outros parâmetros. A geração desses padrões em conjunto com procedimentos operacionais permite o monitoramento eficiente do progresso de viagens de frotas de veículos, para finalidades logísticas e de segurança. O progresso de um veículo ao longo de uma rota é analisado diante dos padrões de viagem de referência obtidos a partir de suas viagens prévias, de veículos similares na mesma rota ou de viagens em rotas de mesma classe, dependendo do que for mais adequado. A geração de padrões é um processo dinâmico que gera conhecimento sobre o veículo e comportamento da rodovia ao longo do tempo. Desenho do processo de monitoramento do progresso de viagem é apresentado, no qual, a cada nova coleta de dado GPS ou a cada instante solicitado pelo usuário, a aderência é medida, eventuais descontinuidades (saídas da rota, paradas ou mudança de sentido) são identificadas e avisos são gerados. Tal aderência é definida por índice de desempenho que considera os desvios de tempo em relação a valores de referência e respectivas tolerâncias. Para experimentação da metodologia, foi realizada simulação de viagem na rodovia BR116 na ligação São Paulo - Rio de Janeiro, sobre base com cerca de 130.000 registros de dados GPS associados. Com integração em Geographic Information System (GIS) para suporte de funcionalidades, foram gerados os padrões de viagem e simulado o processo de monitoramento com sucesso. / This dissertation addresses the question of vehicle travel adherence in intelligent monitoring with Automatic Transportation Location (AVL) operating in a regional environment. A trip is considered as series of runs, corresponding to time in movement but excluding time spent on activities such as loading/unloading and others. Based on historic data collected from AVL/GPS a statistical data filtering method to generate the runs is presented. Furthermore, statistical methods are proposed to generate travel patterns based on travel time, speed, standard deviation and other parameters. The pattern generation together with operational procedures allows effective monitoring of large fleets in logistics and safety. The progress of a vehicle along a route is evaluated face to the statistical patterns of its previous successful trips or against statistical patterns of similar vehicles on the same route, whichever appropriate. The generation of patterns is a dynamic continuous process that generates knowledge on vehicle and road behavior along time. A broad outline of the travel monitoring process is presented. Whenever the requested by user, the process calculates the travel adherence, identifies abnormalities and generates alarms. That adherence is defined by a performance index, which considers the travel time deviations from the reference values and the respective tolerances. Successful experimentation was carried out on the Rio de Janeiro - São Paulo motorway, with 130.000 Global Positioning System (GPS) positional data relayed from trucks to a Geographic Information System (GIS) based monitoring system in Brazil.

Seit der Liberalisierung im Jahr 2013 wächst die Anzahl der Fernbusfahrgäste immer weiter an. Durch ein vielfältiges Streckenangebot und günstige Ticketpreise erfreut sich der Fernbus immer größerer Beliebtheit und ist zu einer guten und umweltfreundlichen Alternative für Fernreisen geworden. Allerdings kann die Reisezeit bei den Angeboten der Konkurrenten wenig mithalten, was vor allem an der Lage der Haltestellen liegt. In dieser Arbeit wird mittels auswahlbasierter Conjoint-Analyse die Kundensicht zu Haltestellen in der Stadt und Hal-testellen in Routennähe untersucht. Dabei nehmen vor allem Reisezeit und Reisekosten Einfluss auf die Entscheidung. Sozioökonomische Merkmale von Kunden spielen nur eine untergeordnete Rolle. Es kann gezeigt werden, dass Haltestellen in Routennähe für Fernbusse eine ernstzunehmende Alternative darstellen, ungeachtet von der Länge der Strecke, solang eine gute Anbindung an das Netz des öffentlichen Nahverkehrs gegeben ist. / Since the liberalisation in 2013, the amount of intercity bus users is continuously increasing. The concept of offering a large variety in routes as well as attractive pricing, helps intercity buses to a great popularity. Moreover, this option of traveling impresses with its eco-friendliness. Due to the location of the bus stops, the traveling time in intercity busses cannot keep up with the one of comparable competitors. Within this thesis, a selective conjoint analysis is conducted. The goal is to gain an insight on the option of potential customers towards bus stops within the city compared to their view of bus stops close to the traveling route. The decision is primarily based on travel costs and travel time whereas socioeconomic factors are only considered briefly. Concluding, bus stops close to the traveling route are an alternative choice for as long as they are located within reach of local public transportation.

In the modern industrialized society, a long commuting time is becoming more and more common. However, commuting results in a number of different costs, for example, external costs such as congestion and pollution as well as internal costs such as individual time consumption. On the other hand, increased commuting opportunities offer welfare gains, for example via larger local labor markets. The length of the commute that is acceptable to the workers is determined by the workers' preferences and the compensation opportunities in the labor market. In this thesis the value of travel time or commuting time changes, has been empirically analyzed in four self-contained essays. First, a large set of register data on the Swedish labor market is used to analyze the commuting time changes that follow residential relocations and job relocations. The average commuting time is longer after relocation than before, regardless of the type of relocation. The commuting time change after relocation is found to differ substantially with socio-economic characteristics and these effects also depend on where the distribution of commuting time changes is evaluated. The same data set is used in the second essay to estimate the value of commuting time (VOCT). Here, VOCT is estimated as the trade-off between wage and commuting time, based on the effects wage and commuting time have on the probability of changing jobs. The estimated VOCT is found to be relatively large, in fact about 1.8 times the net wage rate. In the third essay, the VOCT is estimated on a different type of data, namely data from a stated preference survey. Spouses of two-earner households are asked to individually make trade-offs between commuting time and wage. The subjects are making choices both with regard to their own commuting time and wage only, as well as when both their own commuting time and wage and their spouse's commuting time and wage are simultaneously changed. The results show relatively high VOCT compared to other studies. Also, there is a tendency for both spouses to value the commuting time of the wife highest. Finally, the presence of hypothetical bias in a value of time experiment without scheduling constraints is tested. The results show a positive but not significant hypothetical bias. By taking preference certainty into account, positive hypothetical bias is found for the non-certain subjects.

An iterative travel time forecasting scheme, named the Advanced Multilane Prediction based Real-time Fastest Path (AMPRFP) algorithm, is presented in this dissertation. This scheme is derived from the conventional kernel estimator based prediction model by the association of real-time nonlinear impacts that caused by neighboring arcs’ traffic patterns with the historical traffic behaviors. The AMPRFP algorithm is evaluated by prediction of the travel time of congested arcs in the urban area of Jacksonville City. Experiment results illustrate that the proposed scheme is able to significantly reduce both the relative mean error (RME) and the root-mean-squared error (RMSE) of the predicted travel time. To obtain high quality real-time traffic information, which is essential to the performance of the AMPRFP algorithm, a data clean scheme enhanced empirical learning (DCSEEL) algorithm is also introduced. This novel method investigates the correlation between distance and direction in the geometrical map, which is not considered in existing fingerprint localization methods. Specifically, empirical learning methods are applied to minimize the error that exists in the estimated distance. A direction filter is developed to clean joints that have negative influence to the localization accuracy. Synthetic experiments in urban, suburban and rural environments are designed to evaluate the performance of DCSEEL algorithm in determining the cellular probe’s position. The results show that the cellular probe’s localization accuracy can be notably improved by the DCSEEL algorithm. Additionally, a new fast correlation technique for overcoming the time efficiency problem of the existing correlation algorithm based floating car data (FCD) technique is developed. The matching process is transformed into a 1-dimensional (1-D) curve matching problem and the Fast Normalized Cross-Correlation (FNCC) algorithm is introduced to supersede the Pearson product Moment Correlation Co-efficient (PMCC) algorithm in order to achieve the real-time requirement of the FCD method. The fast correlation technique shows a significant improvement in reducing the computational cost without affecting the accuracy of the matching process.

Seit der Liberalisierung im Jahr 2013 wächst die Anzahl der Fernbusfahrgäste immer weiter an. Durch ein vielfältiges Streckenangebot und günstige Ticketpreise erfreut sich der Fernbus immer größerer Beliebtheit und ist zu einer guten und umweltfreundlichen Alternative für Fernreisen geworden. Allerdings kann die Reisezeit bei den Angeboten der Konkurrenten wenig mithalten, was vor allem an der Lage der Haltestellen liegt. In dieser Arbeit wird mittels auswahlbasierter Conjoint-Analyse die Kundensicht zu Haltestellen in der Stadt und Hal-testellen in Routennähe untersucht. Dabei nehmen vor allem Reisezeit und Reisekosten Einfluss auf die Entscheidung. Sozioökonomische Merkmale von Kunden spielen nur eine untergeordnete Rolle. Es kann gezeigt werden, dass Haltestellen in Routennähe für Fernbusse eine ernstzunehmende Alternative darstellen, ungeachtet von der Länge der Strecke, solang eine gute Anbindung an das Netz des öffentlichen Nahverkehrs gegeben ist.:Inhaltsverzeichnis ABBILDUNGSVERZEICHNIS III TABELLENVERZEICHNIS IV SYMBOLVERZEICHNIS VI ABKÜRZUNGSVERZEICHNIS VIII 1. EINLEITUNG 9 1.1 MOTIVATION 9 1.2 ORGANISATION DIESER ARBEIT 9 2. DER FERNBUSVERKEHR 10 2.1 ALLGEMEIN 10 2.2 PERSPEKTIVEN UND ENTWICKLUNGSMÖGLICHKEITEN 11 2.3 AKTUELLE STUDIEN 12 3. METHODISCHES VORGEHEN 17 3.1 DATENSPEZIFIKATION 17 3.1.1 Fragebogen 17 3.1.2 Daten 19 3.2 METHODEN 19 3.2.1 Allgemein 19 3.2.2 Auswahlbasierte Conjoint-Analyse 21 3.2.3 Logistische Regression 28 4. ANALYSEN 32 4.1 ZIELGRUPPENANALYSE 32 4.1.1 Zielgruppen 33 4.1.2 Merkmalsanalyse 33 4.2 KORRELATIONSANALYSE 44 4.3 AUSWAHLBASIERTE CONJOINT-ANALYSE 45 4.3.1 Lange Strecken 46 4.3.2 Kurze Strecken 54 4.3.3 Lange und kurzen Strecken zusammen 59 4.3.4 Ergebnis der auswahlbasierten Conjoint-Analyse 65 4.4 LOGISTISCHE REGRESSION 66 4.4.1 Lange Strecken 67 4.4.2 Kurze Strecken 71 4.4.3 Ergebnis der logistischen Regression 74 4.5 ERGEBNIS DER ANALYSEN 75 5. KRITISCHE WÜRDIGUNG 76 6. ZUSAMMENFASSUNG UND AUSBLICK 77 QUELLENVERZEICHNIS 79 ANHANG 82 / Since the liberalisation in 2013, the amount of intercity bus users is continuously increasing. The concept of offering a large variety in routes as well as attractive pricing, helps intercity buses to a great popularity. Moreover, this option of traveling impresses with its eco-friendliness. Due to the location of the bus stops, the traveling time in intercity busses cannot keep up with the one of comparable competitors. Within this thesis, a selective conjoint analysis is conducted. The goal is to gain an insight on the option of potential customers towards bus stops within the city compared to their view of bus stops close to the traveling route. The decision is primarily based on travel costs and travel time whereas socioeconomic factors are only considered briefly. Concluding, bus stops close to the traveling route are an alternative choice for as long as they are located within reach of local public transportation.:Inhaltsverzeichnis ABBILDUNGSVERZEICHNIS III TABELLENVERZEICHNIS IV SYMBOLVERZEICHNIS VI ABKÜRZUNGSVERZEICHNIS VIII 1. EINLEITUNG 9 1.1 MOTIVATION 9 1.2 ORGANISATION DIESER ARBEIT 9 2. DER FERNBUSVERKEHR 10 2.1 ALLGEMEIN 10 2.2 PERSPEKTIVEN UND ENTWICKLUNGSMÖGLICHKEITEN 11 2.3 AKTUELLE STUDIEN 12 3. METHODISCHES VORGEHEN 17 3.1 DATENSPEZIFIKATION 17 3.1.1 Fragebogen 17 3.1.2 Daten 19 3.2 METHODEN 19 3.2.1 Allgemein 19 3.2.2 Auswahlbasierte Conjoint-Analyse 21 3.2.3 Logistische Regression 28 4. ANALYSEN 32 4.1 ZIELGRUPPENANALYSE 32 4.1.1 Zielgruppen 33 4.1.2 Merkmalsanalyse 33 4.2 KORRELATIONSANALYSE 44 4.3 AUSWAHLBASIERTE CONJOINT-ANALYSE 45 4.3.1 Lange Strecken 46 4.3.2 Kurze Strecken 54 4.3.3 Lange und kurzen Strecken zusammen 59 4.3.4 Ergebnis der auswahlbasierten Conjoint-Analyse 65 4.4 LOGISTISCHE REGRESSION 66 4.4.1 Lange Strecken 67 4.4.2 Kurze Strecken 71 4.4.3 Ergebnis der logistischen Regression 74 4.5 ERGEBNIS DER ANALYSEN 75 5. KRITISCHE WÜRDIGUNG 76 6. ZUSAMMENFASSUNG UND AUSBLICK 77 QUELLENVERZEICHNIS 79 ANHANG 82

Der optimierte Einsatz von ETCS-Bremskurven: - Bestimmung der D-Weg-Länge - neue Auslegung des Sicherheitsabstandes Bahnübergang sD - Fahrzeitbestimmung von ETCS-geführten Zügen - Durchrutschwege und Haltepunkte individuell gestalten - Anpassung der Bremskurven - Geschwindigkeitswechsel in ETCS - Betrachtung der vorhandenen Infrastruktur und des optimierten Einsatzes von ETCS FS:Vorwort 5 Abstract 6 Thesen zur wissenschaftlichen Arbeit 7 Danksagung 8 1 Motivation 9 1.1 Aktueller Stand 9 1.2 Zielstellung 9 1.3 Vorgehensweise 10 2 Theoretische Grundlagen 11 2.1 Was ist eine Infrastruktur? 11 2.2 Was ist eine EdB? 11 2.3 Was ist ETCS? 11 2.4 Transeuropäisches Netz 12 3 Rechtliche Grundlagen 13 3.1 Europäische Gesetzgebung 14 3.2 Nationale Gesetzgebung 14 4 Technische Grundlagen 15 4.1 Ganz-, Teilblock und wandernder Raumabstand 15 4.2 Arten von Zugbremsungen 15 4.3 Repräsentative Züge: Bremsvermögen 16 4.3.1 Reisezüge 16 4.3.2 Güterzüge 17 4.3.3 Expertenschätzung 17 4.4 Nationales Zugbeeinflussungssystem 17 4.4.1 Punktförmige Zugbeeinflussung 17 4.4.2 Linienförmige Zugbeeinflussung 22 4.5 Europäisches Zugbeeinflussungssystem ETCS 25 4.5.1 Spezifikationen 25 4.5.2 Allgemein 25 4.5.3 Die Eurobalise 27 4.5.4 Übertragungsdaten 29 4.5.5 Betriebsarten 30 4.5.6 Aufbau der Fahrzeugeinrichtung 31 4.5.7 Ausrüstungsstufen (Level) 31 4.5.8 Level 3 37 4.5.9 Bremskurven 38 4.5.10 Vertrauensintervall 42 4.5.11 Bremsmodelle 43 5 Fahrzeiten 49 5.1 Ansatz zur Ermittlung der Fahrzeit von PZB 90-geführten Fahrzeugen 49 5.2 Ansatz zur Ermittlung der Fahrzeit von ETCS-geführten Fahrzeugen 50 5.3 Einfluss der Odometrie auf die Bremskurven 50 5.4 Einfluss der Sperrzeit auf die Leistungsfähigkeit einer Strecke 51 5.5 Schwierigkeit bei der Fahrzeitermittlung von ETCS-Fahrzeugen 52 5.6 Vierteiliges Bremsablaufmodell 56 5.7 Fahrzeitenvergleich zwischen ETCS FS und PZB 59 5.7.1 Fahrzeit bis zum Stillstand 59 5.7.2 Geschwindigkeitswechsel 60 5.7.3 Einfahrt im Bf mit Abzweig 61 5.8 Zusammenfassung 64 6 Durchrutschwege und Haltepunkte individuell gestalten 65 6.1 Regeldurchrutschwege nach Ril 819.0202 65 6.2 Optimierte Durchrutschwege 65 6.2.1 Ansatz 1: Ermittlung des Optimums zwischen EoA und SvL mittels Vs 66 6.2.2 Ansatz 2: Optimum zwischen EoA und SvL ermitteln mittels Steigung der Fahrzeitenkurve 70 6.2.3 Formel zur Bestimmung der kürzesten Anhaltezeit 73 6.2.4 Durchrutschweg-Tabellen für die kürzeste Anhaltezeit 75 6.2.5 Optimierter Durchrutschweg für Release Speed 75 6.2.6 Kürzeste Anhaltezeit für Release Speed 78 6.2.7 D-Weg in Abhängigkeit der Zuglänge/variable Gleisnutzlänge 78 6.2.8 Optimierung der Fahrzeit durch Verschiebung vom Ne 5 80 6.3 Entfall von D-Wegen und Fahrzeitverluste 83 6.4 Entfall von D-Wegen mit vorzeitigem Halt 86 6.5 Halteplatz mit unmittelbar folgenden Gefahrpunkten 89 6.6 Zusammenfassung 90 7 Anpassung der Bremskurven 92 7.1 Änderung mittels „Fixed values“ 92 7.1.1 Dynamische Änderung Tdriver und Twarning 92 7.1.2 Änderung Tdriver und Twarning mittels Set 96 7.2 Änderung der Release Speed 97 7.2.1 Fallende Release-Speed 97 7.2.2 Ergänzung einer Umschalt-Release-Speed 98 7.3 Reduzierung der Bremskurvenschar 99 7.3.1 Bestimmung Warning_EBI-Kurve 100 7.3.2 Bestimmung Bremsablaufkurve 101 7.3.3 Bestimmung Indication-Kurve 101 7.3.4 Vergleich mit den bisherigen Bremsablaufkurven 102 7.4 Vergleich der Änderungen 104 7.5 Zusammenfassung 105 8 Geschwindigkeitswechsel 106 8.1 Sicherung von Langsamfahrstellen bei L1 LS 106 8.2 Bestimmung der Bremskurven beim Geschwindigkeitswechsel 106 8.3 Bestimmung von Dbec 108 8.4 Verschiebung von dp_MRSP in Fahrtrichtung 109 8.4.1 Ansatz zur Bestimmung von dp_MRSP 110 8.4.2 Risikoanalyse zur Verschiebung von dp_MRSP in Fahrtrichtung 113 8.5 Änderung von dV_ebi_min und dV_ebi_max 114 8.6 Änderung der Bremskurven 115 8.7 Zusammenfassung 118 9 Betrachtung der vorhandenen Infrastruktur und des optimierten Einsatzes von ETCS FS 120 9.1 Vergleich der D-Wege zwischen PZB und ETCS 120 9.2 Erhöhung der VzG 122 9.3 Erhöhung der Geschwindigkeit in Weichen 122 10 BÜSA: Sicherheitsabstand sd 124 10.1 Ausgangssituation 124 10.2 Ziel 124 10.3 Herangehensweise 125 10.4 Risikoanalyse zum Thema: „Einheitlicher Sicherheitsabstand sd für BÜSA“ 125 10.4.1 Einführung 125 10.4.2 Systemdefinition 125 10.4.3 Analyse des Ist-Zustandes 129 10.4.4 Neuer Ansatz 130 10.4.5 Risikoanalyse 130 10.5 Zusammenfassung 143 11 Zusammenfassung und Ausblick 144 11.1 Zusammenfassung der zwei Lösungsmethoden und die Integration in die vorhandene Infrastruktur 144 11.2 Weiterer Forschungsbedarf 144 Abkürzungsverzeichnis 146 Liste der verwendeten Variablen 149 Abbildungsverzeichnis 150 Tabellenverzeichnis 155 Literaturverzeichnis 157 Anhang A: Parameter 162 Anhang B: Gesprächsprotokolle 164 Anhang C: D-Weg-Tabelle 165

Transit travel time is affected by many factors including traffic signals and traffic condition. Transit agencies have implemented strategies such as transit signal priority (TSP) to reduce transit travel time and improve service reliability. However, due to the lack of empirical data, the joint impact of these factors and improvement strategies on bus travel time has not been studied at the stop-to-stop segment level. This study utilizes and integrates three databases available along an urban arterial corridor in Portland, Oregon. Data sources include stop-level bus automatic vehicle location (AVL) and automatic passenger count (APC) data provided by the Tri-County Metropolitan Transportation District of Oregon (TriMet), the Sydney Coordinated Adaptive Traffic System (SCATS) signal phase log data, and intersection vehicle count data provided by the City of Portland. Based on the unique collection and integration of these fine granularity empirical data, this research utilizes multiple linear regression models to understand and quantify the joint impact of intersection signal delay, traffic conditions and bus stop location on bus travel time and its variability at stop-to-stop segments. Results indicate that intersection signal delay is the key factor that affects bus travel time variability. The amount of signal delay is nearly linearly associated with intersection red phase duration. Results show that the effect of traffic conditions (volumes) on bus travel time varies significantly by intersection and time of day. This study also proposed new and useful performance measures for evaluating the effectiveness of TSP systems. Relationships between TSP requests (when buses are late) and TSP phases were studied by comparing TSP phase start and end times with bus arrival times at intersections. Results show that green extension phases were rarely used by buses that requested TSP and that most green extension phases were granted too late. Early green effectiveness (percent of effective early green phases) is much higher than green extension effectiveness. The estimated average bus and passenger time savings from an early green phase are also greater compared to the average time savings from a green extension phase. On average, the estimated delay for vehicles on the side street due to a TSP phase is less than the time saved for buses and automobiles on the major street. Results from this study can be used to inform cities and transit agencies on how to improve transit operations. Developing appropriate strategies, such as adjusting bus stop consolidation near intersections and optimizing bus operating schedules according to intersection signal timing characteristics, can further reduce bus travel time delay and improve TSP effectiveness.