Thesis (M.A.)--Baylor University, 2009. / Includes bibliographical references (p. 108-117).

New Hampshire has become a competitive swing state in presidential elections over the past two decades. Though New Hampshire was once a reliable red state and the home for many “Yankee Republicans,” the state has experienced a shift toward the Democratic Party beginning in the early 1990s. Scholars often attribute this shift to the “migration theory,” arguing that the influx of Massachusetts liberals who migrated to New Hampshire in the latter half of the twentieth century has created a larger Democratic voting bloc in the state. However, a county-level analysis of New Hampshire provides a different story. Southern urban counties with the highest migration rates, such as Hillsborough and Rockingham, had relatively small gains of Democratic voters and remain competitive swing counties. Northern rural counties with much lower migration rates, such as Coos and Grafton, have experienced a far greater political shift to the left. By using both of these case studies, this report casts doubt on the “migration theory” by showing that numerical migration rates do not fully account for New Hampshire’s shift. Instead, this report finds that the different types of economies in the southern and northern parts of New Hampshire significantly influence the political effects of migration in the state, offering a more nuanced theory based on county-level data than the one currently provided for the state as a whole.

The poor performance in mathematics of learners in schools in Namibia, especially in the grades where learners sit for the national examinations, has been a concern of everybody. Since independence, the Ministry of Education in collaboration with several donor agencies has been aware of the poor performance in mathematics in the country. Several international and local studies have been made in an effort to identify the problems that are hindering learners’ performance in mathematics in Namibia. The findings of some studies that were conducted in the country such as the Southern Africa Consortium Monitoring Education Quality (2004), the Presidential Commission on Education, Culture and Training (1999), and the Mathematics and Science Teachers Extension Program (2002) revealed that the inadequate proficiency of primary teachers in mathematics content could be responsible for learners’ poor performance in mathematics. This study, therefore, is aimed at investigating the mathematical proficiency of lower primary (LP) teachers in Namibia. The study used three instruments to collect data namely, a profile questionnaire – to collect teachers’ demographic data, a proficiency test – to test their proficiency level of mathematics using the content of Grade 4 and 5 learners’ mathematics syllabi and a semi-structured interview schedule – to get views about their own mathematics content knowledge, attitudes towards mathematics as well as problems that hinder effective teaching and learning of mathematics at LP phase. The study was conducted with 30 lower primary teachers from five primary and combined schools in the Ohangwena circuit of the Ohangwena region. The study found out that: (1) the mathematical proficiency of LP teachers is below the Grade 7 Mathematics content. Most teachers are not able to solve the content of mathematics at upper primary (UP) phase. (2) LP education is receiving very little support from the Ministry compared to other phases. (3) There are no workshops or training courses organised for LP teachers. They do not receive enough textbooks and materials, their classrooms are overcrowded and teachers cannot pay attention to individual learners. (4) There is a dire need for LP Head of Departments (HODs) who are specialised at LP; most HODs for LP at schools are not specialised in this area. When it comes to views about future content of mathematics that should be given to LP teachers in Namibia, respondents recommended that future LP teachers should have knowledge of mathematics up to at least Grade 10 but preferably up to Grade 12. They do not want to be restricted to LP mathematics, but would like to have a broader knowledge of mathematics content. This would make them more confident in solving their children’s problems in mathematics. Overall, participants recognised the value of mathematics and the role that it plays in society.

This thesis develops a candidate-centred conception of American presidential nominations. Candidates' choices in nomination politics remain under-theorised. The literature on nominations has tended either to downplay the role of candidates' independent influence or to suggest that the impact of their choices is too idiosyncratic to theorize about. I reject both of these positions; and instead develop the basic elements of a theory in which candidates are the principal agents of change in nomination contests. I argue that candidates make distinct identity, tactical, and management choices, and I show that this simple frame can be used to connect aspirants' varying goals to their choices and actions. In my theory, candidates' prospects remain relatively stable unless a shift occurs in their competitive setting in response to an unexpected event - for instance, a surprising election result. These shifts, or critical junctures, define a candidate's path to his party's presidential nomination. I argue that the rival candidates' choices dominate the development of these critical junctures and, therefore, that candidates' choices are crucial to nomination outcomes. Structural factors, the actions of non-candidates and the effects of exogenous events, account for a minority of critical junctures. In the empirical chapters of this study, I examine the Democratic and Republican nomination contests in selected years before the McGovern-Fraser reforms (1912, 1924, 1932) and in post-reform cases (1972, 1976, 1980) to demonstrate the pervasive influence of candidates' choices in contrasting institutional settings. These cases confirm my basic claim about the centrality of candidates' choices and also suggest significant ways in which candidates' choices have changed between 1912 and 1980.

This study investigates whether there is a link between the successful implementation of European cohesion policy and the voters' attitudes towards the EU. Using the French presidential elections in 2017 as a case study, we do not solely consider regional funds expenditures but also its induced effects in a region as further potential determinant of pro-European or eurosceptic voting behavior. In order to measure the effectiveness of EU structural funds and Cohesion Fund assignment, firm-level employment effects in French NUTS-2 regions stemming from project allocation during the multi-annual financial framework 2007-2013 are estimated. The obtained average treatment effects are, in a next step, used together with other regional characteristics to capture the citizens' perceived exposure to the EU in an empirical voting model for the French presidential election in 2017. The estimation results reveal a significant negative relationship between the effectiveness of EU funds allocation and the vote share of the eurosceptic candidate Marine Le Pen. / Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series

The Phenomenon of Presidential Elections. The development of the elections of Czechslovak and Czech presidents 1918-2008. The topic of this thesis is an analysis of the development of the elections of the president of Czechoslovakia and later the Czech Republic from 1918 to 2008 in the context of a distinctive understanding of the role of the president in the collective memory of the Czech nation. The reason for the connection the analysis of presidential elections in the specified time period with the Czech experience of the perception of the president's role in the political system of the Czech Republic is the inseparable close link between the two topics within which the specific perception of a president in the eyes of Czech public influences the development of the institute of presidential elections and has the potential to successfully interpret it. The presidential election can therefore be considered a phenomenon within this meaning: it has specific historical, cultural and sociological features of the perception of the president's role in the collective memory of the Czech nation which were essential in the course of the functioning of the institute of the presidential election in Czech lands for further shaping of the form of this institute and these features have also made it a...

Made available in DSpace on 2016-08-03T12:31:16Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Fabio Ciaccia Rodrigues Caldas.pdf: 283770 bytes, checksum: fd505a781fbfdcfb6f6da31928bf0da6 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2010-05-23 / In 1966 the first Military Government was ending in Brazil. Two groups were sharing the political power: The Army Forces, called Sorbonne and Linha Dura . This wanted the Ministry of War, Arthur da Costa e Silva, as a successor of the former President Castello Branco. Costa e Silva made his political campaign running around Brazil to know about the national problems and to show his proposal. The unusual think is the fact that the election was indirect and just the members of National Congress were entitled to vote, so the population was a part of the process. The objective of this research is to profile the Marshal Arthur da Costa e Silva though history facts that made him, in 1966, a candidate for Presidency of the Republic and to understand the marketing strategy used. The methodology to be used was literature, semi-structure interviews with people that were living at the time, and content analyses of the newspapers: O Estado de São Paulo and Jornal do Brasil. The objective was to show their positions during the campaign of the Presidential Election in 1966. / Em 1966 o Brasil chegava ao término do primeiro governo do regime militar. Disputavam o poder dois grupos das Forças Armadas, a Sorbonne e a Linha Dura. Esta indicou o nome do Ministro da Guerra Arthur da Costa e Silva como candidato à sucessão do Presidente Castello Branco. Costa e Silva fez campanha, percorrendo o Brasil para conhecer os problemas nacionais e apresentar suas propostas. O inusitado está no fato de a eleição ser indireta e apenas os membros do Congresso Nacional ter direito a voto, estando a população à margem da escolha do novo mandatário do país. O objetivo do trabalho é traçar o perfil do Marechal Arthur da Costa e Silva levantando fatos históricos que o tornaram, em 1966, um candidato viável à Presidência da República do Brasil e compreender a estratégia de marketing eleitoral utilizada. O trabalho utilizou como metodologia a pesquisa bibliográfica, entrevistas semiestruturadas com personagens que viveram a época e análise de conteúdo dos jornais O Estado de São Paulo e Jornal do Brasil, para indicar suas posições na cobertura das eleições presidenciais de 1966.

Ce travail cherche à rendre compte des enjeux socio-politiques qui ont caractérisé la campagne présidentielle mexicaine de 2006, ainsi que des stratégies discursives développées par les deux principaux candidats en lice, Andrés Manuel López Obrador et Felipe Calderón Hinojosa. En replaçant l’élection dans le cadre de la fin du régime autoritaire du PRI et de la transition démocratique au Mexique, nous nous attachons à montrer dans quelle mesure l’élection de 2006 s’inscrit dans la continuité des changements politiques et sociaux amorcés depuis les années 1970, et constitue en même temps un cas à part dans ce processus. La spécificité de cette élection naît de l’extrême incertitude qui pèse sur l’issue du scrutin, de l’affrontement qui se produit pour la première fois de l’histoire mexicaine contemporaine entre un parti de droite et une coalition de gauche ainsi que des stratégies discursives déployées par les candidats pour tenter de rallier leurs partisans à leur cause et de conquérir les électeurs indécis. En rupture avec les modalités de transmission du pouvoir propres au régime autoritaire, la conflictualité qui caractérise cette élection prend corps dans les manières de dire des candidats, et plus particulièrement dans leurs discours de meetings. L’étude des discours des candidats permet aussi bien de mettre au jour les mécanismes de persuasion et de légitimation à l’oeuvre dans les discours, que de saisir le lien qui les unit au positionnement politique et idéologique de chacun des candidats dans le cadre d’une médiatisation croissante du discours politique. / This dissertation aims to show the sociopolitical issues that characterized the 2006 presidential campaign in Mexico, as well as the discursive strategies used by the two main contenders, Andrés Manuel López Obrador and Felipe Calderón Hinojosa. By putting the election back into the context of the authoritarian regime ending and the democratic transition in Mexico, we will show up to what point the 2006 election is part of the continuous political and social changes that have been happening since the 1970’s and can be defined at the same time as a particular case in this process. The particularity of this election results from the very uncertain result of the ballot, the first confrontation in the contemporary Mexican history between a right-wing party and a left-wing coalition and the discursive strategies the contenders resorted to in order to make their supporters join them and to appeal to the floating voters. This conflictive election breaks off the way political power was passed on during the authoritarian regime, and takes shape through the candidates’speeches, particularly the political massive events. They reflect the Mexican situation and contribute to create some representation of Mexico and his political players as a result of language twists. The study of the contenders’ discursive strategies brings to the light the persuasion and legitimation processes that characterize their speeches and make clear their linkswith the political and ideological stance of each one of the contenders within the framework of the increasing media coverage of political discourse.

In this article, the author makes a critical analysis of the political regime in the 1993 Constitution. He begins analyzing the institution of the Presidency of the Republic, along with its vices and defects, criticizing the concentration of power in the figure of the President and the authoritarian management of his attributions, characteristics that are meaningless in a republic system. Thus, he concludes with a new vision of the figure of the President of the Republic and his attributions in order to achieve an improvement in the functioning and efficiency of the State, without affecting the democratic balance. / En el presente artículo, el autor realiza un análisis crítico del régimen político en la Constitución de 1993. Comienza analizando la institución de la presidencia de la República, junto con sus vicios y defectos, criticando así la concentración de poder en la figura del Presidente y el manejo autoritario de sus atribuciones, características que carecen de sentido en un Sistema Republicano. Así concluye con una nueva visión de la figura del Presidente de la República y sus atribuciones para lograr una mejora en el funcionamiento y eficiencia del Estado, sin afectar el equilibrio democrático.

Esta tese de doutoramento trata da disputa entre o PSDB e o PT nas eleições presidenciais ocorridas no Brasil entre 1994 e 2006. O objetivo principal é identificar quais são as variáveis que estão associadas ao voto nos dois partidos que nos permitem prever com alguma precisão as chances de voto em cada um deles. A análise será procedida com auxílio de bancos de dados representativos dos eleitores brasileiros. São observadas diversas variáveis, classificadas em dois grupos: no primeiro estão as variáveis relacionadas a aspectos de longo prazo que incidem sobre o comportamento eleitoral, as características demográficas, sócio-econômicas e político-ideológicas dos eleitores, no segundo estão as variáveis ligadas diretamente ao processo eleitoral, as avaliações dos governos e dos candidatos. A hipótese mais importante a ser testada é que as variáveis de curto prazo têm impacto muito maior sobre as chances de voto nos partidos do que as variáveis de longo prazo. Isso indica que o contexto eleitoral afeta mais o resultado das eleições presidenciais do que qualquer aspecto estrutural, seja social, econômico ou político. Os resultados obtidos com a utilização de regressões logísticas corroboram a hipótese e apontam para diferenças importantes entre o voto no PSDB e no PT. / This Ph.D. thesis is about the dispute between the PSDB and PT for presidential elections ran in Brazil between 1994 e 2006. Its main objective is to identify the variables linked to votes given for both parties which would lead us to predict under a certain precision degree the chances each one has against other. The analysis is based on relevant databases from brazilian electoral activities. Several variables were observed and separated in two different groups: the first contains the ones related to long term aspects linked to the voters behavior as well as demographics, socio-economic, and political-ideological variables, while the second one contains the variables directly linked to the electoral process, to candidates evaluations and the country issues. The most important hypothesis to be tested is the one of short term variables making a bigger impact over each party vote chance when compared to the long term ones. Considering the hypothesis valuable, this presents the scenary of the electoral context with a bigger effect over presidential election than any other voter structural aspect either social, economic or political. The given result corroborates with the hypothesis and came from logistics regressions, pointing out relevant differences between votes given in favour of PSDB and PT.