在台灣地區，由於社會變遷亟遽，經濟高度發展，人口增加與都市化的發展，竊盜犯罪問題日益嚴重；根據民意調查分析，國內民眾最為關心的，除了「經濟發展」就是「治安良窳」的議題。台灣地區自1999至2003年，每年至少有18萬輛以上的機車失竊，約有8萬輛以上找不回來；每年機車失竊，約流失新台幣152億元，因此機車竊盜問題值得深究。而，台北縣為全國人口的第一大縣，縣民幾近於每2人即擁有1輛機車，故以台北縣作探討，可以做為典範。 本研究透過三角交叉檢視法，以自行編制機車竊盜問卷之量化研究為主，有效問卷400份，再輔以參與觀察法及訪談法。訪問對象為國內實際操作之在職基層警察。 本研究重要發現：將機車竊盜問卷資料歸類成專業技能、防竊觀點、肅竊經驗、心態反應、服務品質與自我期待等區分六項。就基層警察使用電腦資訊而言，可推論仰賴「機械的垂直思考模式」的被動性，較「廣泛的水平思考模式」主動性為高。造成機車竊盜破獲率低的相關原因，有「不了解機車竊盜者，竊盜機車的過程」、「員警心態消極」、「法律審理流程冗長」、「贓物保管不易」、「追贓能力不足」以及「不了解機車竊盜者竊盜機車後的銷贓管道」等因素。大多數基層警察對研究機車竊盜問題之意願低落，陷入「想做，但不會做；想問，又不知怎麼問？要問誰？」的迷思。 另外；在基層警察問卷調查的回應中顯示：對於執行「行政介入」工作，感覺並不困難，但並不能真正了解以行政手段取代司法強制的意涵。基層警察受理報案的觀念正確而又積極；造成犯罪黑數，發生遲、匿報的原因，非在個人懶惰及想卸責、推諉、怕麻煩等因素；並從員警根本就不願意吃案，認為「提升警察專業能力」，可以提昇民眾對治安的滿意度。 本研究結果，具體提出了「行政介入」的刑事策略等防範竊盜的措施之道。「行政介入」的刑事策略，預期可使機車竊盜的發生率降低；那麼，民生痛苦指數必然是下降的、民眾對治安的滿意度也將會提昇，不啻是民眾、政府與警察間的的三贏，「優良治理」的刑事政策，會影響改善治安的期待效果，將獲得更進一步的確認。因而，本文具有理論以及實務上的貢獻。 / The theft crime is getting worse in Taiwan due to rapid social change, economic development, population growth, and urbanization. According to public opinion polls, Taiwanese are concerned deeply about either economic development or public security. More than 180 thousand motorcycles have been stolen during 1999 to 2003. Among these amounts, about 80 thousand motorcycles cannot be found thereafter. The average cost of those missed motorcycles is approximate 15.2 billion NT dollars every year. Therefore, the topic of preventing motorcycle from theft has to be further researched. Taipei County was selected as a case in this research for the reason that it is the most populous county in Taiwan and nearly one out of two residents owns a motorcycle. This research adopted the triangulation approach mainly by quantitative research with questionnaires. The valid questionnaires are 400 copies. In addition, this research also used the participant observation and interviewing as the auxiliary method. The defined interviewees to be sampled were the practitioners from the local police forces. The significant finding from this research: the questionnaires are categorized into six sections including professional skill, anti-theft awareness, theft tackling experience, emotion expression, service quality and self expectation. According to the custom of local polices using computer information the local polices could be inferred that they depend on the inactive「mechanical vertical thinking pattern」 more than on the active「wide lateral thinking pattern」. Several reasons cause the low clearance rate such as they don’t realize the thief and process of motorcycle theft, passiveness, lengthy judiciary process, difficulty to keep loots, incapability to trace the source of loots, not realizing the way how to sell loots and etc. Most of local polices have low intention for doing research on the motorcycle theft problem. They are facing the dilemma of incapability to solve the problem or no access to consultant. Furthermore, the response from questionnaires reveals that it is not difficult for local polices to acknowledge executing public intervention. However, they cannot comprehend the meaning of using public intervention to substitute for the judiciary enforcement. The conception of local polices for receiving theft cases is rarely accurate and active. The reasons causing dark figures of crime, delay cases and concealment are not because of local polices’ laziness and irresponsibility. The local polices are unwilling to cover up the reported theft cases. From the point of view, promoting police’s professional capability could uplift the satisfaction in public security from the citizens. The research finding has provided concrete solutions for theft prevention through the penal strategies of public intervention. The penal strategies in public intervention could be expected to reduce the motorcycle theft. Therefore, the misery index would be decreased and the satisfaction in public security will be improved. It is a win-win strategy among the public, government and police. The good governance in penal strategies can affect the expected results in bettering public security. This outcome will be further verified in the research. Thus, the research has its theoretical and practical contributions. Key words：public intervention good governance

博士(心理学) / Doctor of Philosophy in Psychology / 同志社大学 / Doshisha University

本文以1984年至1989年間的台灣勞工法律支援會（簡稱為勞支會）為中心，考察勞支會的創立、改組與政治反對運動和勞工運動的互動關係。由於戰後台灣長期處於強人威權體制之下，使得工會組織「資源匱乏」，勞工運動由勞工自發性地開展較為困難。本文依循著勞支會組織變化的情形，觀察1980年代黨外運動、勞支會與勞工運動間不同的互動轉折。1984年勞支會創立的重要性在於，它是黨外路線鬥爭下的產物，一方面勞支會連結了黨外新生代對於群眾運動的初步想像，另一方面則提供當時黨外所能提供的資源（法律諮詢、協助者），一定的程度上協助了勞工運動的開展。到了1988年初之交，在野政治勢力的變化與年終獎金風潮的爆發，使得勞支會內在改變的因子得以萌發，再度轉向為籌組工會、協助工會發展、勞工教育與行動策略建議的組織者。在此之前，勞支會儘管有從純法律服務轉變為協助者的發展，但真正促使勞支會進一步轉變的催動力，並非來自於在野政治勢力，而是源自於勞工集體行動。整體來看，勞支會的創立與改組所具有的意涵，在當時都是相當特殊的變化，假若沒有勞支會成立於先，1987年後勞工運動可能又是另一種狀態。

本研究旨在探討正向心理介入方案對大學生正向心理的影響，以及正向心理介入方案、正向因應策略與主觀幸福感的關係。受試者為國立政治大學的大學生，有效樣本為130人。本研究採問卷調查法，施以情緒溫度計量表、主觀幸福感量表、臺灣憂鬱情緒量表、臺灣正向比量表、臺灣巔峰幸福感量表、靈性幸福感量表、正向因應策略量表及心理資本量表，並蒐集前測與後測資料。資料分析方法包含：成對樣本t檢定、獨立樣本t檢定、單因子變異數分析、內容分析法及結構方程式模型。本研究主要發現如下： 一、在前、後測方面 （一）大學生在「主觀幸福感」、「主觀幸福感」分量表之「社會幸福感」及「情緒幸福感」、「情緒刻度」、「快樂時間」、「持平時間」、「正向因應策略」、「巔峰幸福感」、「巔峰幸福感」分量表之「正向機能」及「正向情緒」、「靈性幸福感」、「靈性幸福感」分量表之「團體靈性幸福感」、「環境靈性幸福感」及「超然靈性幸福感」、「正向比」、「心理資本」、「心理資本」分量表之「復原力」、「希望」及「樂觀」上有顯著差異。 二、在背景變項方面 （一）不同性別大學生在「正向心理介入方案」上有顯著差異。 （二）不同性別大學生在「負向情緒」上有顯著差異。 （三）不同年級大學生在各背景變項上皆無顯著差異。 三、在結構模式方面 （一）正向心理介入方案對正向因應策略有直接正向效果。 （二）正向心理介入方案對主觀幸福感有直接正向效果。 （三）正向因應策略對主觀幸福感有直接正向效果。 　　最後，研究者根據研究結果與討論，針對高等教育及未來研究提出若干建議。 / The main purpose of this study was to explore the positive psychology intervention effects on college students, and also the relationships among positive psychology interventions, positive coping strategies and subjective well-being. The participants included 130 college students sampled from National Chengchi University. The pretest and posttest data were both collected by questionnaires, including the Emotional Thermometer Scale, the Subjective Well-Being Scale, the Taiwan Depression Scale, the Taiwan Positivity Scale, the Taiwan Flourishing Scale, the Spirituality Well-Being Scale, the Positive Coping Scale, and the Psychological Capital Scale. Moreover, the data analysis was based on paired-samples t-test, independent-sample t-test, one-way ANOVA, content analysis method, and SEM. The main results were summarized as follows: About the pretest and posttest: 1.Students were significantly different in the scores of subjective well-being, social well-being, emotional well-being, emotional degree, happy time, balanced time, positive coping strategy, flourishing well-being, positive function, positive emotion, spirituality well-being, group-spirituality well-being, environment-spirituality well-being, super spirituality well-being, positivity, psychological capital, resilience, hope, and optimism. About the background variables: 1. Students with different gender were significantly different in the scores of positive psychology interventions. 2. Students with different gender were significantly different in the scores of negative emotion. 3. Students with different grade were not significantly different in the scores of background variables. About the structural model: 1. Positive psychology interventions had positive influence on positive coping strategy directly. 2. Positive psychology interventions had positive influence on subjective well-being. 3. Positive coping had positive influence on subjective well-being. Based on the results and discussion of this study, directions of higher education and future research were suggested.

本論文採用了由Box and Jenkins(1976)所提出的ARIMA模型，以及由BOX and Tiao(1975)所提出的Intervention Model，去配適台灣的失業率型態，以及比較其預測的結果。 結果顯示出台灣的失業率具有季節性的型態，亦即台灣的失業率並非僅僅受到月分之間的相關，年分之間也有所關連。是故，當本論文在預測失業率的水準時，也考慮到此一因素，加入季節性的ARIMA模型對台灣的失業率加以預測。另外，時間序列的資料常常受到外生因素的干擾。對於失業率來說，政策上的改變將會影響失業率本身的結構，因此利用介入模式預測失業率，可以得到一組較精確的預測值。介入模式的事件有以下五個，分別是解嚴、六年國建、台灣引進外勞、中共飛彈試射、新十大建設。前四個事件的確影響了失業率的結構，不過第五項，也就是新十大建設並沒有顯著影響失業率的結構。理由可能是新十大建設的內容並不能合宜的解決經濟上與社會上的問題，以及這些建設尚未完工，以致無法達到期預期的效果。 比較兩模型的預測結果時，採用了MPE、MSE、MAE、MAPE作為模型評估的準則，結果指出介入模式的預測結果比起季節性ARIMA的預測結果來的有效率。 / This article adopts the ARIMA model, which was first introduced by Box and Jenkins (1976), and the intervention model, which was developed by Box and Tiao (1975), to fit the time series data for the unemployment rate in Taiwan, and thus to compare the results of the forecasts. The results reveal that there is a seasonal effect in the data on the unemployment rate. This indicates that the unemployment rate figures are not only related from month to month but are also related from year to year. When forecasting the level of unemployment, we should examine not only the neighboring months but also the corresponding months in the previous year. Time series are frequently affected by certain external events. In the discussion on the unemployment rate, the policies implemented by the government as well as military threats indeed influence the structure of the series. By making a forecast using the intervention model, we can evaluate the effect of the external events which would give rise to more accurate forecasts. In this study, there were five interventions included in relation to the unemployment rate series, which were as follows. First, the lifting of Martial Law in February 1987. Second, the Six-year National Development Plan launched in June 1991. Third, the hiring of foreign labor in Taiwan, which took effect in October 1991. Fourth, the threats of missile tests from the PRC in Feb 1996. Fifth, the ten new construction programs launched in November 2003. The first four events were indeed found to give rise to a structural change in the unemployment rate series at the moment when they occurred. This result might also have implied that not all of the actual effect of expansionary policies could have exactly decreased the unemployment rate, and therefore have solved the economic and social problems simultaneously. When we refer to the comparison of the above two models, the ultimate choice of a model may depend on its goodness of fit, such as the residual mean square, AIC, or BIC. As the main purpose of this study is to forecast future values, the alternative criteria for model selection can be based on forecast errors. The comparison is based on statistics such as MPE, MSE, MAE and MAPE. The results indicate that the intervention model outperforms the seasonal ARIMA model.

「第三方介入」協助談判僵局之解決，是學界普遍認為可行且具實質效益的方法。中國與西藏流亡政府間，不乏第三方介入的身影，甚至以實際行動促成了九次正式的談判，惟持續的接觸與對話，非但未能建立中藏間彼此的信任和尊重，反使雙邊關係更為惡化。 本研究將1950年代達賴流亡印度後至今，劃分為四個時期，彙整各階段之國際政經情勢、中藏對外政策，及第三方涉藏行動，觀察三者間相互的關連性，深入了解國際介入西藏問題的背景，進而以此作為分析回顧「2002-2010年中藏九次談判」的基礎。探討中國政府和西藏流亡政府之談判訴求、各國相關回應，檢視第三方立場與策略行為，對中藏關係所產生的影響和轉變，從而了解國家行為者居中所扮演之角色，與中藏談判深陷僵局的原因。 / “Third-party Intervention” is generally considered a feasible and beneficial strategy for resolving negotiation deadlock. It has been used in the dilemma of China and Tibetan government-in-exile. There have been nine formal negotiations between both parties urged by the third party. However, instead of help establishing trust and respect between China and Tibet, the negotiations have led to a deterioration of bilateral relations. This study divides the period of Dalai Lama’s exile in India (1950~2010) into four stages. It summarizes international political and economic situations, foreign policy of China and Tibet government and the involvement of the third parties at different stages. It also observes the interrelations of the above three factors and investigates the background of international involvement of China-Tibet issues. These observations are used as background information to analyze and review the nine times of negotiations between China and Tibet, to probe into the demands of China and Tibetan governments and the international response, to review the third parties’ position and strategies to urge the negotiations and to understand the influence and change of China-Tibet relations. The purpose of the study is to understand the role of state actors as mediator and the reasons of the negotiation deadlock between China and Tibet.

新戰爭趨勢下的空海軍事作戰硏究: 以美中軍事競爭爲例 / By announcing ‘pivot to Asia’ policy in 2011, the 2nd Obama Administration is moving U.S. strategic center of gravity to East Asia-western Pacific area. Inter alia, U.S. is intensively deploying its conventional military forces on this area in order to check China emerging regional military power by its sustained economic growth, and ‘Air-Sea Battle’ concept is mentioned as a background of the military disposition. This battle concept is now interpreted as a thing to counter-act Chinese expansionists’ maritime strategy has been constructed since 1980’s for regional extension of influence in military. Received much attention from military academia, the Air-Sea Battle concept is recognized as a regular operation doctrine derived from superiority in military technology has dominated war fighting styles of the U.S. military forces for a long time as well as the military has put stress on it by itself and conservative military professionalism. However, war was just a repeated event tackling enemy’s weak points through unthinkable war patterns in terms of its mean and way, and especially the war patterns served a golden opportunity for the weak encountering the strong enemy. Meanwhile, the military cannot adapt to changes seasonably signed its own death warrant and recent asymmetric warfare between regular forces and irregular ones in Middle East shows that point suitably. In the respect, this thesis will identify critical but neglected threats on the Air-Sea Battle and will search for its limitations while expecting China’s spectrum of war at the comprehensive and multi-modal level.

本文利用介入模式分析中共改革開放所造成的經濟結構之轉變，並建構包含軍事、非軍事政府、及私人等三部門的生產函數，來探討其與經濟成長之間的關聯性。實證結果顯示，改革開放使得中國大陸由閉關自守的內向型經濟轉為高貿易依存度的外向型經濟，經濟體制由計劃經濟邁向多元經濟成分共同發展的市場經濟，整體投資環境獲得改善，而軍事支出雖持續增加，但相對於高經濟成長，其軍事支出規模卻是下降的。此外，中共的經濟成長主要來自於積累率的提昇、公部門支出的正面影響和外溢效果、及國際經濟關係的開放，而技術變遷和勞動投入之成長的影響並不顯著。 / This article proposes intervention model to analyze the structural change of China’s transitional economy. We identify the relationship between economic growth and structural change by using the production functions from military, nonmilitary, and private sectors. The results indicate a more market-oriented economy and changing relationship between private and public ownership will continue to drive China toward modernization. In contrast to high economic growth, although military expenditure is still increasing but its relative scale is declining. The main sources of China’s economic growth are from the increase of accumulation rate, the positive and spillover effects of public expenditures, and the liberalization of international economic relations. Especially, much of China’s growth has come from producing goods for foreign trade. While on the other hand, the impacts of technological change and increased labor inputs are not significant in this study.

国立情報学研究所で電子化したコンテンツを使用している。

京都大学 / 0048 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(教育学) / 甲第20599号 / 教博第208号 / 新制||教||169(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院教育学研究科教育科学専攻 / (主査)教授 西岡 加名恵, 准教授 石井 英真, 教授 杉本 均 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Philosophy (Education) / Kyoto University / DGAM