博士(心理学) / Doctor of Philosophy in Psychology / 同志社大学 / Doshisha University

本文研究範圍為十三輩達賴喇嘛土登嘉措 (1987∼1933年) 執掌西藏政府時期，其與 中央政府之間的政治關係。這段歷史的重要性在於，此乃近代西藏獨立運動的根源。 此一階段適逢清末民初，中央政府遭遇內憂外患之時，面對英印侵略西藏的企圖，政 府無力阻止，甚且逼迫藏人對英印讓步，遂啟達賴外向之心。而政府在瞭解藏政之敗 壞以後，雖力圖整飭藏政，但因用人不當、過於操切，直接導致達賴出奔印度，投向 英人的懷抱。清廷覆亡之後，達賴即在英方的協助下，返回西藏，宣布獨立。達賴聲 稱其和中國毫無關係，僅存在其和清帝之間喇嘛和施主的關係。達賴的聲明並未得到 世界各國的承認，中國也從未放棄在西藏的主權。 本文擬分五章來探討中央、達賴、英國、俄國等四方面互動的關係，以及達賴尋求獨 立的本質，藉此得以瞭解現今西藏獨立運動的意識。第一章前言。說明本文的寫作動 機、目的、範圍、方法及文獻探討；第二章中央對達賴的態度。闡述中央如何對待達 賴，使其心生外向，以及達賴聲明獨立後，中央政府的態度如何；第三章達賴態度的 轉變。討論達賴為何背棄中央、尋求外援和獨立、西藏內部的政爭如何對達賴產生影 響；第四章外國勢力的干涉。中央與達賴關係惡化的原因，部份來自外力的介入，所 謂的外力即指英、俄兩國；第五章結論。檢討中央對達賴政重的得失利弊，以及今後 對藏政策的因應措施。

中共一直沒有放棄以武力作為解決「臺灣問題」的選項，「統一臺灣」是中共建軍備戰主要目標之一，而國軍自然是共軍的主要假想敵。但是在1996年美國派遣兩支航母戰鬥群干預臺海軍事危機後，使中共體認美軍才是解決「臺灣問題」的最強大對手，開始深入思考如何阻止擁有高科技優勢的美軍介入臺海軍事衝突。防止美軍在中國大陸周邊地區進行作戰行動，是目前中共軍事現代化的主要發展方向，美國官學界將其稱為「反介入與區域拒止」軍事戰略，一時之間已成為研究中共軍事發展者之主要觀察指標。 中共「反介入與區域拒止」軍事戰略的主要著眼，在於建構能防止美國運用軍力涉入中國大陸周邊事務的能力，中共相信即使強大如美軍也不可能擁有全方位的優勢，其「反介入與區域拒止」軍事戰略主要依據地理環境、地緣戰略、美軍作戰特性及弱點等要素，並憑藉共軍數量與質量俱增的現代化武器，希望在西太平洋地區可能的軍事衝突中壓制美軍的作戰行動，或迫使美軍由較遠的基地發起軍事行動，並且阻止美軍後續的兵力增援，這可能使美軍在西太平洋作戰中遭到中共擊敗，或是迫使美國付出其不願意承擔的重大代價，此將導致中共可以達成其軍事和政治目標，同時也阻止美國全部或部分的軍事和政治目標。 中共軍力在「反介入與區域拒止」軍事戰略的帶動下快速成長，使美軍在西太平洋地區面臨重大挑戰和風險，並使美國區域盟邦有遭受侵略或被迫接受強制手段之虞，美軍為因應中共的挑戰，已確立「空海一體戰」的新型作戰概念，並著手發展相關能力。「空海一體戰」係以美軍現有軍力優勢為基礎，再經由西太平洋軍力部署的重組、海空作戰力量的整合、新型武器裝備的研發，並且加強與盟邦的軍事合作，希望建構一個多層次立體作戰體系，俾遏制中共的軍事擴張。在中、美兩強「反介入與區域拒止」和「空海一體戰」軍事戰略的競逐下，臺灣的自處之道和所應扮演的角色，亦為吾人應予深思的課題。 / The People’s Republic of China has never given up the use of military force as an option to solve the “Taiwan issue”, and the “unification with Taiwan” has also been one of the PLA’s objectives in its military buildup, which naturally makes the ROC military as the PLA’s hypothetical enemy. However, after the US sending two of its aircraft carrier battle groups to intervene a military crisis across the Taiwan Strait in 1996, the PRC started to realize that US military is its strongest opponent in solving the Taiwan issue and began to think how to deny the high-tech US military force from stepping into a military confrontation across the Taiwan strait. The prevention of US military operation in surrounding areas of China has been leading the modernization of China’s military, and officials and academia in the US have been calling this phenomenon “anti-access and area-denial” strategy which all of a sudden becomes an observation index when studying the PRC’s military development. The main focus of China’s “anti-access and area-denial” strategy is to develop the capability of preventing the US military from intervening affairs taking place in surrounding areas of China. China believes that no matter how powerful the US military is, it is unable to gain a comprehensive advantage in this region. By the PLA’s increasing modernized weapons, the anti-access and area-denial strategy, based on the geographic environment, geostrategy, and characteristics and weakness of the US military, aims to suppress US military activities in possible military conflicts in the western Pacific region, or to compel the US military to launch its force from bases further away and to stop its reinforcement. The success of this strategy will make the US military be defeated by the PLA or force the US to pay a price that it is unwilling to afford, and then China is able to achieve its military and political objectives and at the same time stops the US, entirely or partially, from achieving its military and political objectives. The anti-access and area-denial strategy has led to a rapid military development in China, which poses a great challenge and risk to the US military in the western Pacific region and makes allies of the US in this region in the fear of being invaded or coerced. In responding to China’s challenges, the US military has developed a new operational concept -- “AirSea Battle” and begins the development relating to this new concept. The “AirSea Battle” concept, building on current US military supremacy and the integration of air-sea combat powers as well as the reorganization of US force in the western Pacific region and the development of new weapons, looks to enhance the military cooperation between the US and its allies to establish a multilevel operation system which is able to contain Chinese military expansion. Amid the competition between China’s “anti-access and area-denial” strategy and US “AirSea Battle” concept, Taiwan’s responses and the role that Taiwan should play is a subject that we must deliberate thoroughly.

因台灣全島具有許多地震斷層，各處均有可能發生地震，又大型地震易伴隨之地震變動，常有斷層、山崩、地裂、地盤隆起、陷沒、崩崖、噴沙、噴泥、土壤液化、井水變化之情形發生。地震所造成之損失相當嚴重，若僅賴政府之事後救濟，將造成納稅人及國家沉重之財政負荷，相形之下，使人民事前投保地震保險，共同分散損失，乃較佳選擇。有鑑於位於高地震風險地區之國家，例如，位於「環太平洋地震帶」之日本、紐西蘭、美國加州，及位於「歐亞地震帶」之土耳其等，均陸續發展地震保險制度，故本論文欲藉各國地震保險制度，探討我國目前住宅地震保險制度之完善性。 本論文以此為主題，探討之內容包含地震風險是否具可保性、政府是否應介入地震保險市場、綜合天災保險之可行性、地震保險保費釐定之考量因素、是否應強制投保地震保險、強制承保之必要性、目前之投保方式是否構成違法之搭售行為、及理賠標準之爭議等問題，於論文最後並提出相關條文之修正建議。 / Earthquakes occur frequently in Taiwan, and they always lead to catastrophic losses. If the government invests more taxpayer dollars into ex post compensation, it will be unfair to other taxpayers. For insurance plays an important role in the modern societies. It can successfully distribute the risks ex ante and contribute to make societies more stable. So this paper introduces Earthquake Insurance to solve the problem, discusses the topic from different aspects, and does a comparative research on legislation between America, Japan, New Zealand, Turkey and Taiwan. The outline of this paper discusses the insurability, the ways of risk management, the need of government intervention, whether to introduce mandatory insurance, the coverage extent the insurer can provide, and how to determine the premium. At the last of this paper, the author also raises some suggestions of Insurance Law.

回顧地震災難心理學的相關研究指出，災難創傷所引起的心理壓力反應具有長期、慢性化的影響，然而許多有心理壓力反應症狀的民眾可能會因為精神疾病的污名化、社會文化的漠視或忽視、應付接踵而至的生活事件、或症狀引起的退縮行為等種種因素，而不願或未求助心理專業的協助，因此相關的研究同時也指出發展外展心理介入計劃的必要性；然而不論在實務或在研究方面，對有心理症狀但未求助的災民實施外展心理介入卻是鮮而少見的。 / 本篇研究採用已獲多數研究證實有效治療創傷壓力疾患（Posttraumatic Stress Disorder, PTSD）的認知行為治療（Cognitive-Behavioral Therapy, CBT），做為對有症狀但未求助的九二一災民外展心理介入的工作架構，再透過發現取向（discovery-oriented）的研究方法，整理分析介入訪談的資料，以獲得外展心理介入歷程的發現與探討。 / 整理、分析研究資料發現：災民容易因為災後接踵而至的生活變動或退縮而無法求助心理專業，災民因為地震後引發早期適應不良基模和外在聚焦的因應型態，以致無法覺察沒有求助或造成心理症狀慢性化，此與吳英璋（2000）所論及性格特質與災後處遇因素影響災後心理反應是一致的。外展心理介入以持續、密集的方式與災民建立適當的工作關係，改變災民對人負向的基本信念，讓災民有更深入的敘述與自我覺察，其次在貼近災民的日常生活脈絡中，從日常生活事件反覆地分析與練習，才足以動搖既有的信念與行為反應，使災民對事件產生內在聚焦的因應來增加自我效能和控制感，並且從災民置身所在的環境脈絡裡處理創傷個案的經驗迴避問題。以CBT做為外展心理介入的架構進行介入，比較無法使用家庭作業讓個案學習與練習，需透過個案所及能說的日常生活事件中，對其內在經驗聚焦、反覆辯證以致增加個案正向經驗、辨識刺激控制、以及思考的辨證，使個案增加自我效能、控制感、自我肯定等，以達到增加個人資源與賦權之目的。 / There are lots of studies about disaster psychology related earthquakes presenting long-term chronically influence to psychological reactions, and implicating the importance of outreach intervention programs for non-seeking people with traumatic psychological reactions or posttraumatic stress disorder(PTSD). The people might not get help from professionals because stigmatization, apathy or ignore of society, business on going daily events, or withdrawal symptoms. So far as, neither even practicing nor research, there is few article about outreach intervention program for the people with psychological symptoms but non-seeking help. This study applies the framework of cognitive-behavioral therapy(CBT) verified by a lot of studies and practice for PTSD, and uses the discovery-oriented research, to discover and gain the understandings of outreach psychological intervention to non-seeking help people with psychological stress reactions in 921 earthquake. The result finds that people with psychological stress reactions mostly accompany with continuously daily event and withdrawal symptoms to seek help. The early maladaptive schemas invoked by earthquake and the external focus make people difficult to aware the need for help and chronically, and this finding is consistent with the discussion of the psychological reactions influenced by personality trait and disaster management in Wu (2000). Outreach psychological intervention established the working relationship through continuously, condensed schedule changing their negative belief to people, and having them deeper narrative and self-awareness. Secondary, by closed their contextual daily life and repeated exercises by daily event, such impacts are enough to shake their steadily believes and habituated behavioral reactions, then to have people internal focus and increase self-efficacy and controllability; further management is contextual analysis and treatment of experiential avoidance in the ecological context of daily life. The outreach psychological intervention by the framework of cognitive-behavioral therapy, it is difficult to apply homework assignment as review or exercise between sessions; and for regaining personal resource and empowerment, outreach psychological intervention mostly applies internal focus and repeated dialectical discussion to increase positive experience, discriminate of stimulus control, and dialectical thinking, and finally people have more self-efficacy, controllability, and self-assertiveness.

在全球性經濟自由化的潮流下，政府體認到社會環境變遷、市場競爭的重要，因此必須順應時勢所需，釋出過去長達半世紀以來掌管公營事業的所有權，以利其未來的發展與競爭。掌控國內半世紀以來的重要工業發展－石油產業，也成為政府民營化政策下的實施對象。因此，本研究以中國石油股份有限公司在民營化過程中，所遭遇到的各個不同面向之問題作為研究主軸，採用文獻探討、調查訪問與個案探討等研究方法，旨在探討民營化政策下，中油公司的民營化為何會產生延遲與阻礙的情形。 本研究首先針對中油民營化的歷程進行探討，且提出國內其他公營事業民營化的相關經驗，並檢視中油的民營化政策、資方代表立場、組織成員態度、政治力介入等四大因素與中油民營化之間的關係，以發掘阻礙中油民營化進程的真正因素。研究結果發現，政府對於中油的民營化政策目標和實際執行上存有落差、中油民營化股權結構規劃之問題、事業機構的管理者在執行民營化過程時立場之模糊、員工工作權與勞動條件未能有充分的保障、民營化過程中勞資關係所產生的轉變、以及組織外部環境中政治力介入之干擾等因素，都是造成中油民營化困境的重要關鍵。

無 / Discussions of the South China Sea maritime territorial disputes are rife with assertions that certain state actors escalate regional tensions and that it is only a matter of time before provocations trigger armed conflict. However, these claims are based primarily on incomplete evidence, inaccurate comparisons with historical conflicts, and country or individual biases. This dissertation questions these common assertions and uses empirical evidence to assess their validity. Using time-series event data from the Global Database of Events, Language, and Tone (GDELT), it analyzes (1) the relationship between state involvement and South China Sea tensions and (2) which forecast models can most accurately predict South China Sea tensions based on data from earlier time periods. For RQ1, the analyses reveal that the involvement of certain countries corresponds with significantly higher tensions in the South China Sea, that state involvement and tensions are correlated at various positive and negative lags of interest, and that these correlations go in both directions. These findings have important implications for policymakers and researchers in that they offer empirical evidence that confirms or refutes assertions suggesting that certain countries’ actions lead to escalation or deescalation. They also provide a solid foundation for future research, which could take specific countries as individual case studies to further investigate the relationships between state involvement and South China Sea tensions. Moreover, the results indicate that there may be even more interesting phenomena at play that merit attention in future research: evidence suggesting that certain countries may either contribute to lower tensions or avoid becoming involved when there are heightened tensions, and evidence that some countries may not be contributing to but instead reacting to tensions and volatility in the South China Sea. For RQ2, two of the four forecast models perform better than the four benchmark models using both datasets. These findings also have important implications for policy and research. As governments become increasingly interested in using continuously updated global databases to facilitate policy-making, the results suggest that empirical data can help to inform conclusions about trends of escalation and deescalation in the South China Sea and be used to make relevant predictions. As a first cut at the data and a pioneering approach to analyzing South China Sea tensions, the analyses and findings of this dissertation represent a significant contribution to knowledge and a foundation for future research using time-series event data to understand the relationship between state involvement and tensions and the extent to which tensions can be forecasted in the South China Sea and around the world.

在兩岸關係中，讓中共「不做」什麼，與美國會「做」什麼，是台灣國家安全中最重要也最複雜的事。其中又以中共一旦對台軍事行動，美國是否「軍事介入」，最為大家關注。由於部份國人期待著美國在中共武力犯台時會「做」些什麼，有恃無恐的心態，遮蔽了一個最重要也最根本的思維，亦即：維護台海和平與國家安全，最重要的應該是如何讓中共「不做」什麼，而非期待外人會做什麼！ 本文即藉由探討一旦台海有事，美國是否軍事介入？以及可能介入的方式，促使大家思考：「為了台灣的國家安全，與其處於被動的期待美國會「做」些什麼，但可能遭遇限制；不如反思如何採取主動積極的作為，讓申共不做什麼。」 從國際關係的角度，不論美國基於那種理由而採取軍事手段介入他國事務，真正的目的都是為了美國自身的國家利益。本文因此先從相關的學理，分別探討國家利益與美國政策之間的關連性，以及美國軍事介入與海外用兵的原則與目的。根據這些理論，分析兩岸雙方對美國國家利益的影響，據此引伸出不論是從經濟、政治以及戰略利益的層面，美「中」關係既具有合作與互利的關係，也存在著結構性的矛盾。 由於兩岸軍事衝突將使台海現狀造破壞，不利美國的利益。如果原因為中共主動發起，誠如布希所言：「竭盡所能，協助台灣防衛」，美國軍事介入的可能性較高。不過如果因為是台灣走向獨立而引發衝突，美國介入的可能性將大為降低。這就是美國所一再強調的「中共不武，台灣不獨」。 如果美國具有介入的意圖，美國如何介入，是否直接參戰？根據本文對美、 「中」、台三方的軍力以及中共動武的方式所做的研析；並從與實際執行軍事介入政策的美國軍方實務的層面，包括：美軍的作戰準則、教範，執行軍事行動，特別是海外用兵的規範與指導，軍事決策者、作戰指揮官必須思考的問題所做的研究發現：「就美軍的軍事作戰能力而言，贏得短期的勝利應無問題。但是美國脫身不易，最後反易遭受拘束、牽制，將導致極大的風險，因而降低美國直接參戰的可能性。」因此研究結論認為，屆時美國的軍事介入行動，將以加強軍援、武力展示、以及提昇前沿駐防戰備為主；如果派遣艦隊進入台海水域，也是為了執行屬於「非戰鬥人員撤離」的撤僑行動。理論上說，「非戰鬥人員撤離」也屬於軍事介入的行動項目之一。只是這種性質的軍事介入，與國人所殷切期盼的會有極大的落差。對台灣的國家安全，未必具有正面的意義。 關鍵字：國家安全 國際關係 國際體系 九一一事件 中國威脅論 台海衝突 導彈 軍事介入 軍事干預 國家利益 人民解放軍 武力犯台 終戰指導 反恐

人口政策是政府的重要政策之一，而總人口數則是政府制定政治、經濟、社會及文化發展計畫之主要參考依據，因此如何準確地預測未來的總人口數就成為政府相關部門重要的課題。 本論文試圖為台灣地區總人口數建立時間數列預測模式。我們考慮下列模式：單變量自我迴歸整合移動平均介入模式、時間數列迴歸模式、轉換函數介入模式與指數平滑法，其中轉換函數介入模式中所考慮的投入變數包括育齡婦女總生育率、粗出生率及粗死亡率。我們同時以平均絕對百分誤差 (MAPE) 、根均方百分誤差 (RMSPE) 來評估各模式的預測能力，結果顯示以育齡婦女總生育率為投入變數的轉換函數介入模式最佳，而以粗出生率為投入變數的轉換函數介入模式次之，若以這兩個模式進行未來十年總人口數之預測，並與行政院經建會人力規劃處所作的人口預測中推計值比較，其平均絕對百分誤差分別為0.138%，0.156%，顯示時間數列預測模式有相當佳的預測能力。 / In this thesis, we plan to construct various time series models for the total population in Taiwan. The following time series models are considered: ARIMA intervention model, time series regression model, transfers founction intervention model and exponential smoothing method. The input variable considered in the transfer function intervention model include total fertility rate, crude birth rate and crude death rate. We also compare the prediction performance of these models by using mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and root mean square percentage error (RNSPE). It turns out that the transfer function intervention model with total fertility rate as input is the best model. While the transfer function intervention model with crude birth rate as input ranks the second best. Finally we forecast the total population of the next ten years by using the above two best models and compare with the middle population projection by Manpower Planning Department in Executive YUAN-Council for Economic Planning and Development. The mean absolute percentage error are 0.138% and 0.165% respectively. This result justifies that the time series model has excellent predictive ability and should be considered for total population prediction.

本論文では、ヒューマン・サービス分野における動物介在プログラムの組織的機能を多角的に評価し、動物介在プログラムを導入することの意義について論じている。 / This paper discusses the significance of introducing Animal Assisted Program by multilaterally evaluating the organizational function of Animal Assisted Program at the field of Human Service. / 博士(政策科学) / Doctor of Philosophy in Policy and Management / 同志社大学 / Doshisha University