本文的分析建立於理性預期理論的基本假設上： (1) 市場隨時處於清結狀態。 (2) 人們依其對經濟結構之瞭解以形成預期。 (3) 人們擁有之訊息不完整。 透過市場行為分析過程，以探討在此三假設下，未預期到的通貨膨脹率及貨幣成長對 相對價格離散之影響，並利用台灣資料，對此關係作一實證分析。 根據理性預期學派之見解，認為只有未察覺到的通貨膨脹及貨幣成長，才會影響相對 價格離散，而可預期到的部份則對價格變動具有中立性。但就台灣資料實證結果發現 ，可預期到的和不可預期到的通貨膨脹皆會影響相對價格離散，因此，新古典學派的 貨幣中立性假說乃值得再商榷。 最後，則針對台灣經濟存在管價商品之事實，分析未預期到的貨幣成長及管價部門非 中立性效果，對相對價格離散之影響。結果顯示台灣政策當局對於管價商品價格之調 整，頗能與其中立性水準相一致，致使其相對價格離散之影響力甚低。 全文共分四章，第一章為導論。第二章探討有關相對價格離散之理論，並選取Parks, Sellekaerts, Herowitz 和Cukierman & Lciderman 等四個模型，作為分析重點。第 三章則以台灣資料對上一章的四個模型方程式，作迴歸分析。第四章則做一總結。

本研究主要目的在探討價格離散對消費者價格知覺的影響。藉由心理物理理論—適應水準理論、範圍理論與範圍頻次理論，為理論基礎以預測價格刺激在價格離散市場對消費者價格知覺判斷的影響，且基於物理刺激與價格刺激的本質差異，針對價格刺激的價值特性，提出兩點作為價格離散效果的推論基礎。第一、消費者對金錢損失與利得的不對稱反應，使得消費者對低價刺激比高價刺激更敏感。第二、價格資訊複雜時，消費者傾向以價格帶的價格頻次作為處理價格資訊的捷思。本論文藉由三個系列研究，以實驗設計法，將價格離散的效果來源區分為平均價格、價格範圍、價格範圍端點與價格型態四方面探討。 研究一結果發現，價格範圍會降低消費者能接受的最低價格水準並影響消費者的預期最低價格。低平均價格則會降低消費者可接受的最高價格。因此，當市場價格離散程度提高，市場價格範圍變寬或平均價格降低時，會使得消費者的可接受價格帶價格水準降低。可接受價格帶降低會影響價格判斷結果。在消費者主觀知覺上，寬價格範圍使得消費者知覺價格離散程度提高，代表著知覺價格差異、知覺價格不一致與知覺價格混亂三方面的指標都提高。 研究二則進一步證實，市場低價端點與高價端點對消費者的影響權重並不對稱。結果顯示，低價端點的寬價格範圍組會拉低可接受價格帶，然而，高價端點的寬價格範圍組並不會提高可接受價格帶，這是由於消費者對低價與高價的不對稱反應，使得低價與高價對消費者的影響權重有別。同時，在少數低價端點的高價格離散市場，消費者會感受到較高的價格離散程度，主要反映在知覺價格差異與不一致程度；相對地，若是少數高價端點的高價格離散市場，知覺價格離散程度不會顯著提高。一般在運用心理物理理論時，並未提到低價端點與高價端點的相對影響上的不同，事實上則會降低理論預測消費者面對市場價格差異的真實反應。 研究三探討集中分佈與兩極分佈兩種價格型態的影響，結果顯示價格分佈對可接受價格並無顯著影響。然而，兩極價格呈現的是市場價格變異很大的高價格離散市場，確實消費者的知覺價格離散亦有大於集中價格的情況，主要反映在知覺價格混亂程度方面。因此，欲瞭解價格離散對消費者價格知覺的影響，則需從平均價格、價格範圍與價格範圍端點分析之。 / The main purpose of this dissertation is to explore the impact of price dispersion on consumers’ price perception. Borrowing from psychophysics theories, such as Adaptation-Level Theory, Range Theory and Range-Frequency Theory, this research predicts how price stimuli in a product market with high price dispersion have effects on consumers’ price perception and judgments. On top of the difference between physic stimuli and price stimuli which has monetary value attached in nature, two assumptions are proposed for hypothesis inferences. First, consumers have asymmetric responses towards monetary loss and monetary gain, which make them more sensitive to low prices than high prices. Second, consumers tend to use relative price frequency among different price zones as a heuristic to process complicated price information. Therefore, this dissertation conducted three studies, all with experimental designs, to explore the effects of price dispersion from four dimensions- price mean, price range (width), extremely high or low prices and price pattern. This dissertation includes three studies. Study one was designed to explore the effect of price mean and price range. The result indicated that wide price range lowered down the lower boundary of acceptable price. Meanwhile, price range has effect on consumers’ lower boundary of expected price. In contrast, lower mean marked down the upper boundary of acceptable price. Thus, in a market of high price dispersion, the wide price range or lower mean tends to lower down the level of acceptable price, which further influences consumers’ price judgment. In addition, wide price range raised a consumer’s perceived price dispersion, which could be measured from higher perceived price difference, higher perceived price inconsistency and higher perceived price chaos. Study two focused on the effect of extreme prices under high price dispersion. Wide price range with relatively fewer extremely low prices maked down the range of acceptable price. However, wide price range with relatively fewer extremely high prices had no impact at all. This is because of consumers’ asymmetric responses towards low prices and high prices, which make consumer more sensitive to lower prices than high prices. Consumers’ perceived high price dispersion aroused by fewer extremely low prices was mainly the perception of high price difference and price inconsistency. In contrast, fewer extremely high prices would not enhance perceived price dispersion. Past application of psychophysics theories to predict the effect of price stimuli did not emphasize the different weight of low and high prices on consumers’ perception. Then the theories could not fully predict consumers’ real perception of market price difference. Study three further explored the effect of price pattern by comparing two price patterns, normally-centered and bipolarly-separated. The result indicated no effect on the range of acceptable price, but two patterns differed in their perceived price dispersion. What the pattern of bipolarly-separated represented was a market with high price variances, which also led consumers to perceive higher price dispersion, especially higher price chaos. Accordingly, the overall effect of price dispersion should be analyzed through the effect of mean, price range and extreme prices.

本文以美國境內航空市場為例，探討多重市場接觸與價格離散的關聯，並研究大型航空公司併購案前後多重市場接觸對航空公司競爭策略的影響。本研究發現：(一) 相互容忍說於併購案發生前後皆成立。(二) 相較於考量擴大市場的市佔率，航空公司更應該關注與競爭者間的競爭關係。(三) 併購案發生前後，航空公司的訂價行為都深受競爭對手的競爭策略影響。(四) 併購案發生前，因競爭者多，市場上航空公司平均市佔率的大小是航空公司可採取競爭手段重要因素之一。在最大的1000 個市場中，雖然每家航空公司的市場力量不大，航空公司仍可採取價格競爭，然若是對手間聯合懲罰，則航空公司不敢採取激進手段，且多重市場接觸越多，價格離散程度越大。而在次要競爭的市場中，則因航空公司的平均市占率是最大的1000 個市場的兩倍，因此航空公司並未有明顯競爭行為。但若考量競爭對手間的碰面次數，則多重市場接觸與不同分位價格關係為正，且多重市場接觸越多，價格離散程度越低。併購案發生後，因航空公司間彼此箝制力量大，與競爭對手間的碰面次數越多，越傾向隱性勾結，且高價位的價格上升較低價位價格多，使價格離散程度越大。 / In this paper, we discuss whether multimarket contact matters for price dispersion in the U.S. airline industry, and compare the influence of multimarket contact on airlines’ competition strategies before and after airline mergers and acquisitions. We find that: (a) Before and after the mergers, mutual forbearance exists. (b) In contrast to an airline‘s market share, the relationship between airlines and itself plays a more important role in its pricing strategy.(c) Before and after the mergers, airline companies’pricing strategies are significantly affected by their competitors’strategies. (d) Before the mergers, because of the intense competition, it is the size of the competitors‘ market share that the company decide whether to take aggressive strategies. In the top 1000 competitive markets,airline companies will take aggressive actions to get more passengers for the punishment from its competitor is an incredible threat, however, if competitors collude together, airline companies will hardly dare to cut price. And the effect of an increase in multimarket contact on price dispersion is positive and significant. In the second competitive markets, since the average market share is twice bigger than in the top 1000 markets, airlines prefer not to participate in cut-throat competition. However, if competitors collude, then airline companies will cooperate together, and the effect of an increase in multimarket contact on price dispersion is negative and significant. After the mergers, increase in contacts with competitors would facilitate mutual forbearance and increase price dispersion and higher-percentile prices will increase more than lower-percentile prices.

有關相對價格離散度之研究，最早源於新古典學派二分法則(Dichotomy Paradigm)， 認為實質因素的變動，與名目因素二者截然劃分。但自Mills(1927) 起，即發現相對 價格離散度和名目的物價上漲率間並不獨立，而呈現正相關的現象。由於相對價格的 變動引起生產、消費決策的變動，因而名目外生干擾是否造成相對價格離散，並進而 影響實質變數，乃成為總體理論一項重要課題。 在過去的文獻中，Vining & Elwertowski(1976)，Parks(1978)，Blejer(1981)，He- rcowitz(1981)，Blejer & Leiderman(1982),及Fischer(1982)的實證研究，與Luca- s(1973)，Barro(1976)，Hercowitz(1981，1982) 及Cukierman(1982) 的理論分析， 大都發現通貨膨脹或非預期的通貨膨脹皆將導致相對價格離散度增加。而大部分的實 證研究皆利用各市場間的資料進行分析。近年來 Domberger(1987)及Hoomissen(1988 ) 則強調市場內通貨膨脹與價格離散度的關係。 本文第一部分利用民國59年至78年台灣地區躉售商品物價指數中的各項商品物價指數 ，根據 Domberger的方法，分析各市場內與市場間相對價格離散度與通貨膨脹的關係 。全部的商品共分為二十四個市場，計量方法為 Nonlinear Seemingly Unrelated Estimation。另外，再根據Saxonhouse(1977)提出的二階段迴歸分析步驟，探討造成 各個市場相對價格離散度與通貨膨脹二者的關係是否受到各產業市場集中度，以及市 場內產品數影響。 本文第二部分利用Blejer & Leriderman(1982) 模型，分析台灣地區相對價格離散度 與國外 (美國) 相對價格離散度二者之間的關係，並探討國際間通貨膨脹的傳遞。